The Philadelphia Eagles have been a bit of an anomaly in the Andy Reid years. The team ranks consistently among the top passing offenses, yet it rarely has what one would consider a true WR1. Of course Terrell Owens was the exception to that rule. Last season, the Eagles drafted diminutive yet explosive DeSean Jackson in the 2nd round and hoped he would contribute to the WR depth and provide the team with a difference-maker in the return game.
Even the most ardent Eagles fans couldn't have been prepared for what came next.
Week 1 -- 6 catches for 106 yards
Week 2 -- 6 catches for 110 yards
Jackson became only the 2nd receiver in NFL history to open his career with back-to-back 100-yard games. What's more surprising is that he did it playing for Andy Reid; a coach notorious for making rookies work their way into playing time (Jackson is the first rookie on offense to start in Week One).
On the season, Jackson finished with 62 receptions for 912 yards (14.7 YPR) and 2 TDs; good enough for a 29th place fantasy finish. Not eye-popping numbers, but enough to warrant enthusiasm that Jackson has a number of elite seasons in his future.
As fantasy owners decipher Jackson's situation for 2009, there are a number of factors to consider:
1) His quarterback, coaches and system remains intact -- Unlike his fellow rookie star, Eddie Royal of the Broncos, Jackson is back working with the same perennial Pro Bowler under center, with the same offensive system and the same coaches. Don't underestimate the importance of that as Jackson looks to make a natural progression from Year 1 to Year 2.
2) The WR corps is a lot deeper this year -- The Eagles used a 1st round pick on WR Jeremy Maclin, and 2007 leading receiver Kevin Curtis is back and fully healthy after dealing with the after effects of a sports hernia procedure in 2008. For a team that has a long history of spreading the ball around, this means fewer targets for all concerned. In Andy Reid's tenure (1999-present), the Eagles have only had TWO 1,000-yard receivers (Terrell Owens in 2004 and Kevin Curtis in 2007). Remember that.
3) Jackson needs to improve in key facets of the game -- While Jackson showed a lot as a rookie, his game is far from complete. He would at times break off routes last year, more due to a lack of concentration than lack of ability. When he's focused, Jackson is a great route runner, but he needs to approach every snap in the same way. On top of that, Jackson only scored 2 TDs last year; an unacceptably low number given his role. And last but not least, Jackson needs to generate more yards after the catch -- something that was considered his strong suit coming out of Cal.
Another thing to remember is that not all players who were great as rookies are destined to improve as 2nd-year players. In the Player Spotlight thread (see link below), I provide a more detailed analysis of this phenomenon. But here's the key take away, 21 rookie WRs before last year had at least 900 yards receiving. Of those 13 of 21 actually DECLINED as fantasy performers (on a per game basis) in Year 2.
Let's be clear, I'm NOT suggesting Jackson isn't going to improve. But I am suggesting that simply expecting him to improve because he had a good rookie season isn't a winning bet. With every player, you need to analyze their specific situation and determined whether the contributing factors argue for improvement.
Positives
* Jackson was impressive enough to start for a coach notoriously opposed to starting rookies, and in doing so he broke 900 yards and provided the Eagles their best deep threat
* Jackson came into the league as a crisp route runner and brilliant open field runner; strengths that if utilized at the NFL level should mean Jackson is capable of more than we saw last year, and in turn Top 20 fantasy numbers
* Donovan McNabb is a talented and productive QB and Jackson has clearly been his top target during OTAs and the preseason
Negatives
* Jackson showed lapses last year (6 drops, minimal YAC) and must markedly improve those metrics to warrant his current ADP
* The Eagles have only had two 1,000-yard receivers in the Andy Reid Era (Terrell Owens in 2004 and Kevin Curtis in 2007), and the return of a healthy Kevin Curtis and the decision to draft Jeremy Maclin make it unlikely we'll see a 3rd this year
* Jackson's size and inability to get off the line in space made him a relatively ineffective red zone target last year
Final Thoughts
DeSean Jackson has a ton of potential, and the ability and opportunity to deliver a Top-15 fantasy season. But at his current ADP (WR22), there is little room for error. The Eagles have a long history of spreading the ball around, and it's unlikely any WR will deliver consistent fantasy numbers week in, week out. Jackson's full season numbers should be quite good, and as long as you view him as a solid WR2 or excellent fantasy WR3, you're going to be happy to have him on your roster. Draft accordingly.