Determining when to go for "boom/bust" versus "safe poi (1 Viewer)

[stevegamer]

I'm having some trouble with this, and I'm trying to make this more a strategy discussion rather than a simple AC Coach post.

The points I see as relevant:

1. My team's every week, no-brainer starters, for better and for worse. These guys are going to be the constant I use to make my side decisions.

2. My weekly opponent, and what their output is likely to be, and to some extent how variable they are.

3. My track record at picking the right players - how efficient I am at setting lineups.

4. The specific mix of available spot starters, both on my roster, and in the FA pool that I can get.

Analyzing #1 is pretty easy for me - I have the every week starters, but at some spots, I won't have any - due to a weak spot, and it will be strictly based off matchups. So that entire position gets analyzed this way. Also, I might have a kicker I'm happy with, in general - until I think he needs to go to waivers, he starts, whatever the fortunes are for that week.

#2 seems straightforward at first - average points, and to some extent what their high & low possible point totals are.we all know who the teams are that are scoring a ton in our leagues, and some seem lucky. I'm defintieyl thinking there's something more to this than I see & understand.

#3 - for me is actually the easiest thing to measure. All my leagues are on MFL, and I have been one of the 3 most efficient teams each of the last 3-4 years in all my leagues - generally with an efficiency over 90% in non-IDP aleagues, and in the high 80's in my IDP dynasty. I am looking to get my efficiency up in that IDP league, and am over 90% this year.

#4 - requires knowing all of your likely starters, plus who is out on the waiver wire. For example, this week I needed a bye week LB, and Derek Smith (SF) was out there - I grabbed him, figuring he's pretty steady, and would be a decent guy, not likely to go crazy, but not liekly to generate a goose egg. I've used him before. I view Bobby Engram WR, SEA, the same way - if you know a few guys who can do that in a pinch, and of that set, one will usually be on waivers, that will help.

I'm not sure where this will go, but I thought it might be interesting to discuss, as it's probably something we all see slightly differently. If you see factors I missed, fire away!

 

[Jene Bramel]

Bumping this great topic as it deserves more attention while we wait for injury reports and replacement analysis.

This topic was on the list of things to discuss in RTD this week as I'm a big believer in aggressive roster and lineup management during the bye weeks. I'll add my thoughts after I finish the column.

 

[stevegamer]

Jene, what's "RTD"?

I am also a big believer in aggressive IDP roster management to get the right players on your squad. I can't say the same for my lineup management on the D side of the ball - especialy this season as I'm sitting with more startable guys than I know what to do with. This "problem" has partly caused my interest in visiting this topic - whenyou've got nobody outside the top 20 DL in a league where you can start 4, it becomes 'interesting' making lineup decisions. Right about now, I want my league to allow me to start 15 IDP or so.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, what's "RTD"?

I am also a big believer in aggressive IDP roster management to get the right players on your squad. I can't say the same for my lineup management on the D side of the ball - especialy this season as I'm sitting with more startable guys than I know what to do with. This "problem" has partly caused my interest in visiting this topic - whenyou've got nobody outside the top 20 DL in a league where you can start 4, it becomes 'interesting' making lineup decisions. Right about now, I want my league to allow me to start 15 IDP or so.

RTD = Reading the Defense weekly column . Here's a partial excerpt from this week:Bye Week Roster Management – Steady Production or Risky Upside?

...

2. You’ve got a bad team that, due to poorer than expected play from its anchors (read: Brees, Evans, Peppers, Rhodes, etc), needs to have some amazing weeks to climb back into contention but still has potential. You think you’re going to need to get a little lucky to win and are looking at starting a marginal DL3 and LB5 that are struggling but you still have hope will produce. How aggressive should you be?

Very aggressive. With a little luck, any unexpected win you pick up might become the difference when and if your studs return to form. There’s no reason not to fill in as many lineup spots with upside as you can. What have you lost if you lose? What have you gained if one 25 point week from Victor Hobson wins you a game you wouldn’t have won otherwise?

In fact, there’s an argument to be made that you should be this aggressive every week unless you think you already have a healthy advantage on your opponent and want the safe points or the price of cutting a player with clear upside later in the season isn’t worth risking on a team you strongly expect to be playoff bound. Every team can find safe points. Close matchups are often won by whichever team has that “breakout” week and kills its opposition at that lineup position. Andre Davis won a lot of games as a 3rd WR last week. So did Patrick Crayton. Taking a shot on Jarrad Page’s matchup against LT and Gates or Jacques Reeves against a likely pass heavy Ram offense could have doubled up your opponent at one lineup slot.

Admittedly, this is easier to do in some leagues than others but it can still be done in deeper leagues with more roster spots by rostering a couple of big upside guys for a rainy day or aggressively considering the matchup each week for hot spots. It won’t work every time – these guys are on the wire for a reason – but an astute owner can often correctly handicap which blind squirrel is about to become an eagle-eyed stud. The benefits far outweigh the risks. So be on the lookout for...

 

[stevegamer]

That's sort of what I'm doing. In my IDP league, I'm 4-0, and I didn't need Osi this past week or Curtis last week, but I played them. Playing it safe is why I made the waiver moves I made for bys last week, but I still felt like it wasn't right.

I think the question really does come in analyzing where you are in the league, which I guess should be my point #5 above:

5. Where does your team sit in relation to the league as a whole?

Maybe I will try and analyze this line of thinking, and throw something more in detail together.