Detroit 3rd WR Battle (1 Viewer)

[loose circuits]

Detroit needs pass catchers behind Calvin. Seems like it's possible that one of these guys emerges as a fantasy relevant player this year in a very high powered offense.

Candidates:

Ryan Broyles: back working out after many surgeries. Reports say he's rehabbed harder than anyone. If it wasn't for the injuries, he would easily be the #3 if not ahead of Golden Tate for WR2 duties

Corey Fuller: Big, fast WR who was raw coming out of Virginia Tech. Some of us may have over estimated how ready he was for the NFL a year ago, but after looking at some scout write ups many people thought he was a project. Could he turn the corner this year? Received heavy praise during rookie minicamps.

Kris Durham: Big, tall, fast, but inconsistent hands. Former college roommate of Stafford's

TJ Jones; Shifty rookie from Notre Dame

Corey Ross: Returner who has been working on his receiving skills. Last I heard, the new OC liked what he was showing at camp.

Thoughts?

 

[msudaisy26]

In all honesty who really cares? For everything this offense has been and gave us for fantasy they have yet to give us a solid and consistent fantasy receiver behind Calvin ever. I really don't think many people want to waste a roster spot on a guy that is going to be 4th or 5th on the team in targets.

 

[NYJ]

I can see the Lions running 2 RB and/or 2 TE sets a lot so the WR3 will rarely be on the field and won't have enough opportunities to be relevant.

From that list, Ryan Broyles is definitely more talented but give me TJ Jones if I had to pick one.

 

[Faust]

Eric Ebron will play the role of De facto WR # 3 IMHO.

 

[loose circuits]

In all honesty who really cares? For everything this offense has been and gave us for fantasy they have yet to give us a solid and consistent fantasy receiver behind Calvin ever. I really don't think many people want to waste a roster spot on a guy that is going to be 4th or 5th on the team in targets.

well, I suppose if you play in 12 team leagues with <20 guys on each team you probably don't. however, I like um deep 12x30- where a lot of these guys are owned and you have to dig for value. TJ Jones is typically being drafted, but are they drafting the wrong WR?

A few reasons to like them- Ebron will need time to adjust. Rookie TEs typically do, so he may not be a monster out of the gate. Tate won't be a target hog and Lombardi has shown he likes to spread it out all over the field. A lot of reasons to think one or maybe even two could emerge when you consider Calvin had nagging injuries all last year, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that may continue to get worse where he has to miss some time.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I think this stuff is interesting. Why shouldn't Broyles be the favorite? If Lombardi is truly bringing the Saints system with him a big deep threat like Fuller could be the answer.

The player who might have helped himself the most is second-year receiver Corey Fuller. Lions coach Jim Caldwell praised him heavily when asked about him, saying he thought he was outstanding this past weekend. This might be an empty platitude, however it seems obvious Fuller at least made an impression on the coaching staff about his willingness to pick things up. It'll be interesting to see where he fits in during OTAs this week.

http://espn.go.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/7960/morning-roar-final-rookie-camp-thoughts

Durham is a huge guy, like 6'6". Does he have deep speed?

So, maybe -

WR2: Tate/Broyles

WR3: Broyles/Fuller/Durham ?

 

[msudaisy26]

I understand their are deeper leagues. My point is I would rather have the 4th, 5th guy on other teams before the 3rd on Detroit

 

[TartanLion]

Eric Ebron will play the role of De facto WR # 3 IMHO.

This, I think. I can see a lot of two TE sets with Pettigrew blocking and them attempting to use Ebron up the middle a lot with Tate and Calvin obviously wide. Add to that that we have Reggie and Bell who can command receptions and I don't think there is much left for a notable WR3.

I'd love Broyles to be a success story and become a reliable and talented slot receiver but his history dictates that you couldn't really back him until he actually does it and gets through the injuries hump.

 

[finito]

In all honesty who really cares? For everything this offense has been and gave us for fantasy they have yet to give us a solid and consistent fantasy receiver behind Calvin ever. I really don't think many people want to waste a roster spot on a guy that is going to be 4th or 5th on the team in targets.

So you're saying this info is worthless in my 16 team 30 man roster league? Not all leagues are equal, and in some leagues 3rd and 4th WRs actually do have value, and of course it's always nice to know who may step up in an injury situation. I wouldn't just say the conversation is worthless -- it may be for you, but there are others that may glean valuable information from this type of discussion.

Personally, I'm rooting for Broyles as I think he has a lot of natural talent. Dunno if he can make it back though after so many knee injuries.

 

[loose circuits]

I understand their are deeper leagues. My point is I would rather have the 4th, 5th guy on other teams before the 3rd on Detroit

sure there are a few, but chances are they are probably owned already in deeper leagues. An injury to Calvin and his targets getting distributed would give maybe even 2 of these guys significant value

if you think this thread is worthless, why not just move on. I'd rather not rehash arguments about the top guys over & over, so I stay away from those threads. how much new info can there be about Jeremy Hill for example....

 

[msudaisy26]

In all honesty who really cares? For everything this offense has been and gave us for fantasy they have yet to give us a solid and consistent fantasy receiver behind Calvin ever. I really don't think many people want to waste a roster spot on a guy that is going to be 4th or 5th on the team in targets.

So you're saying this info is worthless in my 16 team 30 man roster league? Not all leagues are equal, and in some leagues 3rd and 4th WRs actually do have value, and of course it's always nice to know who may step up in an injury situation. I wouldn't just say the conversation is worthless -- it may be for you, but there are others that may glean valuable information from this type of discussion. Personally, I'm rooting for Broyles as I think he has a lot of natural talent. Dunno if he can make it back though after so many knee injuries.

I am not saying it to be mean or because it isn't useful to me. I am saying it because I don't think it is useful for anyone. Calvin missed 2 games last year and the Lions averaged 240 passing yards and 1 touchdown in those games. I am not sure if you have seen a game when Calvin is out or when he was just a decoy because he was to hurt to be effective but it isn't pretty. 240 yards spread out between Tate, Ebron/Pettigrew, Bush and Bell doesn't leave a lot left for another receiver if Calvin goes down.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Longshot

http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2014/05/24/corey-fuller-motor-city-deep-sleeper/

 

[Pots]

I understand their are deeper leagues. My point is I would rather have the 4th, 5th guy on other teams before the 3rd on Detroit

sure there are a few, but chances are they are probably owned already in deeper leagues. An injury to Calvin and his targets getting distributed would give maybe even 2 of these guys significant value

if you think this thread is worthless, why not just move on. I'd rather not rehash arguments about the top guys over & over, so I stay away from those threads. how much new info can there be about Jeremy Hill for example....

He's right, don't act so offended. But if you're really curious to who is the best out of the bottom of the barrel-type WRs, then Ryan Broyles is your best bet.

 

[jurb26]

Det already has 2 WR3s on the team. Reggie Bush and now Eric Ebron. Even though Det passes the ball a ton I don't see much value at all out of that position this year. Maybe an injury changes things. The reality is even though a guy may be WR3'on Det depth chart, he's realistically looking at 5th best targets, maybe even 6th if you still believe in Pettigrew at all.

 

[WagesOfZin]

I understand their are deeper leagues. My point is I would rather have the 4th, 5th guy on other teams before the 3rd on Detroit

wate. wut?

 

[Tango]

Det already has 2 WR3s on the team. Reggie Bush and now Eric Ebron.

Bell was a monster through the air in '13.

Receptions/Targets/Yds (greater than 400 yds)

Mega 84/156/1492

Bell 53/68/547 78% completion percentage
Bush 54/80/506
Durham 38/86/490

Burleson 39/53/461

Pettigrew 41/64/416


Stafford comp % excluding Bell 56%

 

[jurb26]

Det already has 2 WR3s on the team. Reggie Bush and now Eric Ebron.

Bell was a monster through the air in '13.

Receptions/Targets/Yds (greater than 400 yds)

Mega 84/156/1492

Bell 53/68/547 78% completion percentage

Bush 54/80/506

Durham 38/86/490

Burleson 39/53/461

Pettigrew 41/64/416

Stafford comp % excluding Bell 56%

Makes sense. I think Pettigrew, Bush and Calvin were all top 10 in the NFL for drops last year.

 

[GECKO]

Good stuff in here

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Det already has 2 WR3s on the team. Reggie Bush and now Eric Ebron. Even though Det passes the ball a ton I don't see much value at all out of that position this year. Maybe an injury changes things. The reality is even though a guy may be WR3'on Det depth chart, he's realistically looking at 5th best targets, maybe even 6th if you still believe in Pettigrew at all.

Obviously Mega is the top target, and then in whatever order Tate / Ebron / Bush / Bell. Whoever ends up as the WR3 will likely be a total afterthought anyway.

 

[msudaisy26]

Det already has 2 WR3s on the team. Reggie Bush and now Eric Ebron.

Bell was a monster through the air in '13.

Receptions/Targets/Yds (greater than 400 yds)

Mega 84/156/1492

Bell 53/68/547 78% completion percentage

Bush 54/80/506

Durham 38/86/490

Burleson 39/53/461

Pettigrew 41/64/416

Stafford comp % excluding Bell 56%

Thanks for the info. This proves my point, the numbers that Burelson and Durham put up were mostly as the wr2. How on earth can a wr3 be valuable in fantasy being the 5th or 6th in targets on that team even in the deepest leagues.

 

[WagesOfZin]

outside of maybe denver, i can't find a single team whose WR4/5 i'd rather have than the WR3 in detroit, whoever that ends up being. good luck figuring out who it will be though...and if i'm rostering either, i'm either in a really deep league or my WR roster is lacking.

 

[menobrown]

Eric Ebron will play the role of De facto WR # 3 IMHO.

I tend to agree with this.

I know Ebron got a few Vernon comps and after the Lions picked him a lot of people are envisioning him as the next Jimmy Graham. I don't see him being like any of those players. The TE I believe he is most similar to is Kellen Winslow Jr, and that's a good thing because if not for that devastating knee injury who knows how sweet his career would have been.

I know Lombardi said some stuff about using Ebron like he used Graham but really I see it going down a little different. Using the Saints as a blueprint I see it going like this:

Graham-Calvin

Colston- Ebron-I see Ebron playing a lot out of the slot, where Colston was has been more effective the last few seasons

Lance Moore- Tate but to be fair I think Tate's better and more versatile than Moore ever was.

WR3-5- weekly randoms you can never count on, good best ball format fantasy options but nothing you'll ever be able to feel comfortable putting in your starting lineup.

And to take it further:

Sproles- Reggie

PT- Joquie Bell

 

[Tau837]

Tate won't be a target hog

Why? No one will be a target hog in the way Calvin will, but why won't Tate get a lot of the remaining targets?

 

[Tau837]

Eric Ebron will play the role of De facto WR # 3 IMHO.

I tend to agree with this.

I know Ebron got a few Vernon comps and after the Lions picked him a lot of people are envisioning him as the next Jimmy Graham. I don't see him being like any of those players. The TE I believe he is most similar to is Kellen Winslow Jr, and that's a good thing because if not for that devastating knee injury who knows how sweet his career would have been.

I know Lombardi said some stuff about using Ebron like he used Graham but really I see it going down a little different. Using the Saints as a blueprint I see it going like this:

Graham-Calvin

Colston- Ebron-I see Ebron playing a lot out of the slot, where Colston was has been more effective the last few seasons

Lance Moore- Tate but to be fair I think Tate's better and more versatile than Moore ever was.

WR3-5- weekly randoms you can never count on, good best ball format fantasy options but nothing you'll ever be able to feel comfortable putting in your starting lineup.

And to take it further:

Sproles- Reggie

PT- Joquie Bell

 

[loose circuits]

Tate won't be a target hog

Why? No one will be a target hog in the way Calvin will, but why won't Tate get a lot of the remaining targets?

I see him in the Lance Moore role which will be limited. Not like Colston/Graham.

 

[Tau837]

Tate won't be a target hog

Why? No one will be a target hog in the way Calvin will, but why won't Tate get a lot of the remaining targets?

I see him in the Lance Moore role which will be limited. Not like Colston/Graham.

That's it? Gut feeling?

IMO Tate is underrated as a NFL WR, due in large part to the low passing attempts in Seattle's offense. All stats from PFF, with minimum 25% of team's snaps played:

- #22 overall WR and #17 in the passing game in 2013

- Caught 68.8% of 93 targets in 2013, including all 8 of his catchable deep targets

- #2 in YAC per reception in 2013

- #1 in tackles broken or avoided in 2013 and over past 3 years

- Just 5 drops on 149 catchable targets over last 3 seasons, the lowest drop rate of any NFL WR

On top of that, Detroit signed him to a $31M contract. I think it's pretty obvious they will target him quite a bit more than any other WR on the team besides Calvin.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Tate won't be a target hog

Why? No one will be a target hog in the way Calvin will, but why won't Tate get a lot of the remaining targets?

I see him in the Lance Moore role which will be limited. Not like Colston/Graham.

That's it? Gut feeling?IMO Tate is underrated as a NFL WR, due in large part to the low passing attempts in Seattle's offense. All stats from PFF, with minimum 25% of team's snaps played:

- #22 overall WR and #17 in the passing game in 2013

- Caught 68.8% of 93 targets in 2013, including all 8 of his catchable deep targets

- #2 in YAC per reception in 2013

- #1 in tackles broken or avoided in 2013 and over past 3 years

- Just 5 drops on 149 catchable targets over last 3 seasons, the lowest drop rate of any NFL WR

On top of that, Detroit signed him to a $31M contract. I think it's pretty obvious they will target him quite a bit more than any other WR on the team besides Calvin.

Tate's per target metrics have been elite the past two years, but he's lacked volume due to Seattle's run heavy system. Detroit came pretty hard after him early in free agency, which would seem to indicate that they have a pretty major role in mind.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Reggie Bush may see a lot of time in pass patterns (ala Sproles) with Joquie Bell manning the more traditional RB role.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I can see the Lions running 2 RB and/or 2 TE sets a lot so the WR3 will rarely be on the field and won't have enough opportunities to be relevant.

True, Detroit's WR3 will really be more of a WR4 in terms of potential action.

 

[loose circuits]

Tate won't be a target hog

Why? No one will be a target hog in the way Calvin will, but why won't Tate get a lot of the remaining targets?

I see him in the Lance Moore role which will be limited. Not like Colston/Graham.

That's it? Gut feeling?

IMO Tate is underrated as a NFL WR, due in large part to the low passing attempts in Seattle's offense. All stats from PFF, with minimum 25% of team's snaps played:

- #22 overall WR and #17 in the passing game in 2013

- Caught 68.8% of 93 targets in 2013, including all 8 of his catchable deep targets

- #2 in YAC per reception in 2013

- #1 in tackles broken or avoided in 2013 and over past 3 years

- Just 5 drops on 149 catchable targets over last 3 seasons, the lowest drop rate of any NFL WR

On top of that, Detroit signed him to a $31M contract. I think it's pretty obvious they will target him quite a bit more than any other WR on the team besides Calvin.

The contract is over 5 years, so it's not like he's making ridiculous money per year. It's only just over 6 mil.year. This is the reason, even after the free agent signing, many people connected them to a WR in the 1st or 2nd. the reason those numbers are that

 

[msudaisy26]

outside of maybe denver, i can't find a single team whose WR4/5 i'd rather have than the WR3 in detroit, whoever that ends up being. good luck figuring out who it will be though...and if i'm rostering either, i'm either in a really deep league or my WR roster is lacking.

Do you just look at teams and decide this without doing any research? I would much rather have the 4th guy in Green Bay, New Orleans, Philly, Dallas and so on. Do you realize that guys like Cotchery, Kenny Stills, Eddie Royal and so on were all 4th or 5th guys on their teams and they were out scoring the 2nd and 3rd guy for Detroit because actually they are 5th and. 6th in targets.

 

[WagesOfZin]

matter of fact, i use a ouija board. research is overrated.

last year's numbers are just that...last year's. the lions didn't have a WR2 or WR3 last year. they had calvin and......calvin and...... it's not very hard for kenny stills or eddie royal to outproduce kris friggin durham.

....and once again, if you're rostering any of these guys you're either in a really deep league or you're hurting at WR on your roster.

 

[Tau837]

Last year, Detroit attempted 634 passes. Their last 3 seasons, they averaged 675 pass attempts, though IMO that is inflated by the outlier 2012 season. I think it's reasonable to project 660.

Last year, 157 targets went to the RBs, and both Bush and Bell were very effective in the passing game. I'll round this up to 160 for this season.

Last year, 110 targets went to the TEs. Now they have added Ebron to their TE group, so it seems very likely the TE targets will go up. I'll project 140 targets.

That leaves 360 targets for the WRs.

Last year, Calvin had 156, despite missing 2 games. I see no reason to project him with less than 160 targets, which might be low if he stays healthy.

That leaves 200 targets for the remaining WRs. Last year, Durham had 85, Burleson had 55, and 4 others (Broyles, Ogletree, Ross, and Edwards) combined for 60.

If he stays healthy, IMO Tate is a lock for 100 targets. I mean, Kris Durham - Kris Durham! - got 85 last year. Tate is clearly better than Durham, and the team must think so, too, or they wouldn't have signed him to a $31M contract.

That leaves 100 targets for the rest of the WRs on the roster -- Durham, Broyles, Fuller, Ogletree, Edwards, Ross... not sure who will make the roster, but there will presumably be at least 4 other WRs besides Calvin and Tate who will receive some number of targets. Unless the WR3 gets virtually all of those 100 targets, it seems unlikely there would be any value there.

660 pass attempts

160 RBs

140 TEs

160 Calvin

100 Tate

100 all other WRs

So for those who would project value in a WR3, who is it, and how many targets do you project for him? If you see issues with my breakdown, what are they?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Last year, Detroit attempted 634 passes. Their last 3 seasons, they averaged 675 pass attempts, though IMO that is inflated by the outlier 2012 season. I think it's reasonable to project 660.

Last year, 157 targets went to the RBs, and both Bush and Bell were very effective in the passing game. I'll round this up to 160 for this season.

Last year, 110 targets went to the TEs. Now they have added Ebron to their TE group, so it seems very likely the TE targets will go up. I'll project 140 targets.

That leaves 360 targets for the WRs.

Last year, Calvin had 156, despite missing 2 games. I see no reason to project him with less than 160 targets, which might be low if he stays healthy.

That leaves 200 targets for the remaining WRs. Last year, Durham had 85, Burleson had 55, and 4 others (Broyles, Ogletree, Ross, and Edwards) combined for 60.

If he stays healthy, IMO Tate is a lock for 100 targets. I mean, Kris Durham - Kris Durham! - got 85 last year. Tate is clearly better than Durham, and the team must think so, too, or they wouldn't have signed him to a $31M contract.

That leaves 100 targets for the rest of the WRs on the roster -- Durham, Broyles, Fuller, Ogletree, Edwards, Ross... not sure who will make the roster, but there will presumably be at least 4 other WRs besides Calvin and Tate who will receive some number of targets. Unless the WR3 gets virtually all of those 100 targets, it seems unlikely there would be any value there.

660 pass attempts

160 RBs

140 TEs

160 Calvin

100 Tate

100 all other WRs

So for those who would project value in a WR3, who is it, and how many targets do you project for him? If you see issues with my breakdown, what are they?

nice work

 

[jurb26]

Last year, Detroit attempted 634 passes. Their last 3 seasons, they averaged 675 pass attempts, though IMO that is inflated by the outlier 2012 season. I think it's reasonable to project 660.

Last year, 157 targets went to the RBs, and both Bush and Bell were very effective in the passing game. I'll round this up to 160 for this season.

Last year, 110 targets went to the TEs. Now they have added Ebron to their TE group, so it seems very likely the TE targets will go up. I'll project 140 targets.

That leaves 360 targets for the WRs.

Last year, Calvin had 156, despite missing 2 games. I see no reason to project him with less than 160 targets, which might be low if he stays healthy.

That leaves 200 targets for the remaining WRs. Last year, Durham had 85, Burleson had 55, and 4 others (Broyles, Ogletree, Ross, and Edwards) combined for 60.

If he stays healthy, IMO Tate is a lock for 100 targets. I mean, Kris Durham - Kris Durham! - got 85 last year. Tate is clearly better than Durham, and the team must think so, too, or they wouldn't have signed him to a $31M contract.

That leaves 100 targets for the rest of the WRs on the roster -- Durham, Broyles, Fuller, Ogletree, Edwards, Ross... not sure who will make the roster, but there will presumably be at least 4 other WRs besides Calvin and Tate who will receive some number of targets. Unless the WR3 gets virtually all of those 100 targets, it seems unlikely there would be any value there.

660 pass attempts

160 RBs

140 TEs

160 Calvin

100 Tate

100 all other WRs

So for those who would project value in a WR3, who is it, and how many targets do you project for him? If you see issues with my breakdown, what are they?

Nicely done. I could see the RB targets dropping this year thanks to Det having a capable WR2. I know you're projecting a bump for Tate over Durham but I think that bump might actually come from the RBs and not necessarily the "other WR" group. So I might side more with a 140 for RBs and 120 for the other WRs number. Not earth shattering, but a difference.

 

[loose circuits]

Last year, Detroit attempted 634 passes. Their last 3 seasons, they averaged 675 pass attempts, though IMO that is inflated by the outlier 2012 season. I think it's reasonable to project 660.

Last year, 157 targets went to the RBs, and both Bush and Bell were very effective in the passing game. I'll round this up to 160 for this season.

Last year, 110 targets went to the TEs. Now they have added Ebron to their TE group, so it seems very likely the TE targets will go up. I'll project 140 targets.

That leaves 360 targets for the WRs.

Last year, Calvin had 156, despite missing 2 games. I see no reason to project him with less than 160 targets, which might be low if he stays healthy.

That leaves 200 targets for the remaining WRs. Last year, Durham had 85, Burleson had 55, and 4 others (Broyles, Ogletree, Ross, and Edwards) combined for 60.

If he stays healthy, IMO Tate is a lock for 100 targets. I mean, Kris Durham - Kris Durham! - got 85 last year. Tate is clearly better than Durham, and the team must think so, too, or they wouldn't have signed him to a $31M contract.

That leaves 100 targets for the rest of the WRs on the roster -- Durham, Broyles, Fuller, Ogletree, Edwards, Ross... not sure who will make the roster, but there will presumably be at least 4 other WRs besides Calvin and Tate who will receive some number of targets. Unless the WR3 gets virtually all of those 100 targets, it seems unlikely there would be any value there.

660 pass attempts

160 RBs

140 TEs

160 Calvin

100 Tate

100 all other WRs

So for those who would project value in a WR3, who is it, and how many targets do you project for him? If you see issues with my breakdown, what are they?

I appreciate the time you went in to doing the research, but isn't it likely to change significantly with a new HC and OC?

 

[Tau837]

Last year, Detroit attempted 634 passes. Their last 3 seasons, they averaged 675 pass attempts, though IMO that is inflated by the outlier 2012 season. I think it's reasonable to project 660.

Last year, 157 targets went to the RBs, and both Bush and Bell were very effective in the passing game. I'll round this up to 160 for this season.

Last year, 110 targets went to the TEs. Now they have added Ebron to their TE group, so it seems very likely the TE targets will go up. I'll project 140 targets.

That leaves 360 targets for the WRs.

Last year, Calvin had 156, despite missing 2 games. I see no reason to project him with less than 160 targets, which might be low if he stays healthy.

That leaves 200 targets for the remaining WRs. Last year, Durham had 85, Burleson had 55, and 4 others (Broyles, Ogletree, Ross, and Edwards) combined for 60.

If he stays healthy, IMO Tate is a lock for 100 targets. I mean, Kris Durham - Kris Durham! - got 85 last year. Tate is clearly better than Durham, and the team must think so, too, or they wouldn't have signed him to a $31M contract.

That leaves 100 targets for the rest of the WRs on the roster -- Durham, Broyles, Fuller, Ogletree, Edwards, Ross... not sure who will make the roster, but there will presumably be at least 4 other WRs besides Calvin and Tate who will receive some number of targets. Unless the WR3 gets virtually all of those 100 targets, it seems unlikely there would be any value there.

660 pass attempts

160 RBs

140 TEs

160 Calvin

100 Tate

100 all other WRs

So for those who would project value in a WR3, who is it, and how many targets do you project for him? If you see issues with my breakdown, what are they?

I appreciate the time you went in to doing the research, but isn't it likely to change significantly with a new HC and OC?

It's possible.

The bottom line is they are going to target Calvin heavily. No one would dispute that.

Bush and Bell were really effective last season in the passing game. Sure, they could lose some targets in favor of WRs... but how many is reasonable for them to lose? They combined to average 10 ypr on what has to be viewed as low risk throws. IMO those targets aren't likely to drop off significantly, especially when combined with an increase in passing attempts.

The team went out and paid an expensive price for Tate ($31M contract) and Ebron (first round pick). IMO it makes sense for them to get plenty of targets. Ebron likely won't get elite TE targets as a rookie, but Pettigrew is still there. Does it seem reasonable for Tate to get fewer than 100 targets? Does it make sense for TE targets not to go up? Not to me.

So if someone expects things to be notably different, I'm interested in someone showing some work on that and explaining why and how the WR3 could have non-trivial value.

 

[msudaisy26]

Last year, Detroit attempted 634 passes. Their last 3 seasons, they averaged 675 pass attempts, though IMO that is inflated by the outlier 2012 season. I think it's reasonable to project 660.

Last year, 157 targets went to the RBs, and both Bush and Bell were very effective in the passing game. I'll round this up to 160 for this season.

Last year, 110 targets went to the TEs. Now they have added Ebron to their TE group, so it seems very likely the TE targets will go up. I'll project 140 targets.

That leaves 360 targets for the WRs.

Last year, Calvin had 156, despite missing 2 games. I see no reason to project him with less than 160 targets, which might be low if he stays healthy.

That leaves 200 targets for the remaining WRs. Last year, Durham had 85, Burleson had 55, and 4 others (Broyles, Ogletree, Ross, and Edwards) combined for 60.

If he stays healthy, IMO Tate is a lock for 100 targets. I mean, Kris Durham - Kris Durham! - got 85 last year. Tate is clearly better than Durham, and the team must think so, too, or they wouldn't have signed him to a $31M contract.

That leaves 100 targets for the rest of the WRs on the roster -- Durham, Broyles, Fuller, Ogletree, Edwards, Ross... not sure who will make the roster, but there will presumably be at least 4 other WRs besides Calvin and Tate who will receive some number of targets. Unless the WR3 gets virtually all of those 100 targets, it seems unlikely there would be any value there.

660 pass attempts

160 RBs

140 TEs

160 Calvin

100 Tate

100 all other WRs

So for those who would project value in a WR3, who is it, and how many targets do you project for him? If you see issues with my breakdown, what are they?

I appreciate the time you went in to doing the research, but isn't it likely to change significantly with a new HC and OC?

They could change with a new HC and OC, but they passing attempts are unlikely to go up and Calvin will still get his. If anything the new regime could hurt the other receivers.

 

[loose circuits]

what were the Saints distribution? could less targets for Calvin mean more efficiency and less wear & tear as he ages?

I am not going to sit here and say I know for sure. Things happen & change constantly in the NFL

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

pecking order:

Calvin

Ebron

Reggie

Tate

Not enough passes to matter for chumps like broyles etc.

 

[msudaisy26]

Just win is pretty much dead on.

Over the past 3 season the Lions have averaged 670 targets.

365 WR targets

165 TE targets

139 RB targets

Calvin has averages 173 targets a year. So that leaves about 200 for Tate and the rest. If Tate gets around 100 that leaves 100 targets for the other 3 or 4 receivers on the team.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

what were the Saints distribution? could less targets for Calvin mean more efficiency and less wear & tear as he ages?

I am not going to sit here and say I know for sure. Things happen & change constantly in the NFL

No one knows "for sure" but I think it's a fairly safe assumption that the most dominat WR in the league, who is still within his prime, isn't likely to see a drop in targets so that the team can get Corey Ross, Corey Fuller or Kris Dunham more involved.

Also I think there's a lot of danger in assuming a new OC who was only a position coach for another organization is going to model his offense in the exact way it was done at his previous destination - it's surely not an outlandish position to take, and it is likely that there will be some elements, but if the guy is smart and talented he's not only going to add his own twists but he's also going to take adavantage of the strengths and weaknesses of his new players. In other words, I wouldn't look to see how many targets Marques Colston saw in NO and use that as a baseline for Calvin's projected targets and I wouldn't say, well Jimmy Graham saw the most targets in NO so Bradon Pettigrew should be a beast this year.

 

[sho nuff]

I understand their are deeper leagues. My point is I would rather have the 4th, 5th guy on other teams before the 3rd on Detroit

Agreed...with Ebron, Tate, and Bush really being #2, #3, and #4 in whatever order you want to put them...I don't want what ends up being the #5 option.

Now...if someone wants to take it more as being ready to snatch a guy in case of an injury or two...have at it.

 

[Tau837]

what were the Saints distribution? could less targets for Calvin mean more efficiency and less wear & tear as he ages?

I am not going to sit here and say I know for sure. Things happen & change constantly in the NFL

No one knows "for sure" but I think it's a fairly safe assumption that the most dominat WR in the league, who is still within his prime, isn't likely to see a drop in targets so that the team can get Corey Ross, Corey Fuller or Kris Dunham more involved.

Also I think there's a lot of danger in assuming a new OC who was only a position coach for another organization is going to model his offense in the exact way it was done at his previous destination - it's surely not an outlandish position to take, and it is likely that there will be some elements, but if the guy is smart and talented he's not only going to add his own twists but he's also going to take adavantage of the strengths and weaknesses of his new players. In other words, I wouldn't look to see how many targets Marques Colston saw in NO and use that as a baseline for Calvin's projected targets and I wouldn't say, well Jimmy Graham saw the most targets in NO so Bradon Pettigrew should be a beast this year.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Good stuff here guys, lots of interesting analysis. I'll throw in a few things.

New OC came from NO, how much to take from that? Middling imo. Two things I see right away:

1. Brees threw 650 passes last year and Stafford averaged a little more than that recently, so JWB's estimate of 660 seems accurate.

2. Detroit threw to the RBs a lot last year. New Orleans threw to the RBs A LOT-173 targets for Sproles & Pierre Thomas. Again, JWB's 160 seems accurate.

3. Calvin will get his targets, don't think that anyone will dispute that. 160 for him is, if anything, low barring injury.

So that's nearly half of the attempts.

I personally am not a fan of Ebron for this year because Pettigrew/Fauria are still there, and rookie TEs almost always seem to produce less than we anticipate-see Eifert last year as the most recent example. Graham is another example.

I haven't backed up my rookie TE hunch with data, so take that with the appropriate grain of salt.

 

[Biabreakable]

Durham (wtf?) 936os 82.6% 86tg 38rec 12.9ypc 2TD
Pettigrew 888os 78.4% 64tg 41rec 10.1ypc 2TD
Mega 877os 77.4% 156tg 84rec 17.8ypc 12TD
Bush 610 53.8% 80tg 54rec 9.4ypc 3TD
Bell 547 48.3% 68tg 53rec 10.3ypc
Burelson 496 43.8% 53tg 39rec 11.8ypc 1TD
Fauria 303 26.7% 30tg 18rec 11.5ypc 7TD
Ogletree 25tg 13rec 15.3ypc 1TD
Broyles 197 16.5% 14tg 8rec 10.6ypc
Ross 178 15.7% 10tg 5rec 11.8ypc 1TD
Edwards 145 12.8% 11tg 5rec 9.2ypc
Scheffler 86 7.6% 12yg 7rec 11.7ypc
Riddick 43 3.8% 8tg 4rec 6.5ypc
Dickerson 43 3.9 5tg 2rec 17ypc

I cannot dismiss that Durham had the most offensive snaps of any skill player on the Lions team in 2013. That does not have me thinking he will only have a trivial role in the offense in 2014.

 

[Tau837]

Durham (wtf?) 936os 82.6% 86tg 38rec 12.9ypc 2TD

Pettigrew 888os 78.4% 64tg 41rec 10.1ypc 2TD

Mega 877os 77.4% 156tg 84rec 17.8ypc 12TD

Bush 610 53.8% 80tg 54rec 9.4ypc 3TD

Bell 547 48.3% 68tg 53rec 10.3ypc

Burelson 496 43.8% 53tg 39rec 11.8ypc 1TD

Fauria 303 26.7% 30tg 18rec 11.5ypc 7TD

Ogletree 25tg 13rec 15.3ypc 1TD

Broyles 197 16.5% 14tg 8rec 10.6ypc

Ross 178 15.7% 10tg 5rec 11.8ypc 1TD

Edwards 145 12.8% 11tg 5rec 9.2ypc

Scheffler 86 7.6% 12yg 7rec 11.7ypc

Riddick 43 3.8% 8tg 4rec 6.5ypc

Dickerson 43 3.9 5tg 2rec 17ypc

I cannot dismiss that Durham had the most offensive snaps of any skill player on the Lions team in 2013. That does not have me thinking he will only have a trivial role in the offense in 2014.

Yet the team went out and paid a high price for both Tate and Ebron. So how high could they reasonably be on Durham?

If you are saying it makes sense that he could be next in line behind Calvin, Tate, Bush, and some combination of Pettigrew, Ebron, and Bell, I can agree with that. But does that make him rosterable? I seriously doubt it, except in really deep leagues.

 

[Biabreakable]

Durham (wtf?) 936os 82.6% 86tg 38rec 12.9ypc 2TD

Pettigrew 888os 78.4% 64tg 41rec 10.1ypc 2TD

Mega 877os 77.4% 156tg 84rec 17.8ypc 12TD

Bush 610 53.8% 80tg 54rec 9.4ypc 3TD

Bell 547 48.3% 68tg 53rec 10.3ypc

Burelson 496 43.8% 53tg 39rec 11.8ypc 1TD

Fauria 303 26.7% 30tg 18rec 11.5ypc 7TD

Ogletree 25tg 13rec 15.3ypc 1TD

Broyles 197 16.5% 14tg 8rec 10.6ypc

Ross 178 15.7% 10tg 5rec 11.8ypc 1TD

Edwards 145 12.8% 11tg 5rec 9.2ypc

Scheffler 86 7.6% 12yg 7rec 11.7ypc

Riddick 43 3.8% 8tg 4rec 6.5ypc

Dickerson 43 3.9 5tg 2rec 17ypc

I cannot dismiss that Durham had the most offensive snaps of any skill player on the Lions team in 2013. That does not have me thinking he will only have a trivial role in the offense in 2014.

Yet the team went out and paid a high price for both Tate and Ebron. So how high could they reasonably be on Durham?

If you are saying it makes sense that he could be next in line behind Calvin, Tate, Bush, and some combination of Pettigrew, Ebron, and Bell, I can agree with that. But does that make him rosterable? I seriously doubt it, except in really deep leagues.

It is stumping me a bit simply because I do not know much about Durham.

I guess I am going to go with him as the WR 3 based on how many snaps he had last season. But I could see Broyles taking that role if he is actually healthy. I do not feel comfortable about the situation at all. It is not that I think this player is going to be valuable in FF. Especially not with the poor efficiency Durham had on his targets in a larger role. But how much of a role this player has could affect the targets for Tate Bush Bell perhaps?

Maybe I am thinking about it wrong as I am not sure which player would fit into the Colston role on the Lions? Some have suggested that would be Ebron while Calvin will be Graham. The way I have been looking at it is that Ebron is Graham (as stated by the coaches after Ebron was drafted) and Calvin is obviously MUCH better than Coltson and if he were playing alongside Graham he would still command the top targets. So a WR that Brees has not had to work with. So then who has the Colston role? Will TJ Jones be in the mix? I don't know much about him either. Would it be Pettigrew? I see the Saints using other TE a lot besides Graham so I was more thinking of it as he would take most of those combined TE snaps, but that Fauria would still see some snaps occasionally as well. Would Fauria move into a Colston like Role?

With the Saints they did not target WR as much as a lot of other teams do. Including Linehan. I think the Lions and Saints offenses are very similar in a lot of ways and the Lions have been borrowing from those ideas in how they have recently been running their team, bringing in Bell and Bush who like the RB with the Saints, Thomas and Sproles command a lot of targets, which takes some opportunity away from the WR. That in most offenses might be there.

The high amount of targets expected by Stafford is why it matters however. As a break out by a WR could eat into some of the higher end expected targets at RB or TE.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Who is the man to own (after Tate) if Calvin is dinged?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Who is the man to own (after Tate) if Calvin is dinged?

no one