Deuce ranked too low this week? (1 Viewer)

[The Swarm]

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB. On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

 

[14464]

I don't think you can look at the cheatsheets anymore simply because many players rankings make no sense whatsoever. Since one shouldn't even use the cheatsheets to set your lineups, why does FBG have a cheatsheet anyway?

 

[The Swarm]

I don't think you can look at the cheatsheets anymore simply because many players rankings make no sense whatsoever. Since one shouldn't even use the cheatsheets to set your lineups, why does FBG have a cheatsheet anyway?

Not looking to dismiss the cheatsheets whole hog, but I would like to understand some of the thought behind them. If Horn is out, the Bills D might tighten up on the run a little, but even a "tightened" Bills run D isn't that scary right now.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

 

[joffer]

I don't think you can look at the cheatsheets anymore simply because many players rankings make no sense whatsoever. Since one shouldn't even use the cheatsheets to set your lineups, why does FBG have a cheatsheet anyway?

huh?

 

[14464]

I don't think you can look at the cheatsheets anymore simply because many players rankings make no sense whatsoever. Since one shouldn't even use the cheatsheets to set your lineups, why does FBG have a cheatsheet anyway?

Not looking to dismiss the cheatsheets whole hog, but I would like to understand some of the thought behind them. If Horn is out, the Bills D might tighten up on the run a little, but even a "tightened" Bills run D isn't that scary right now.

Well many people do question them and nobody ever gets a reason how they are ranked. Then you have many people who say that if you shouldn't use the cheatsheets when deciding who to start or not on your team. So why not just do away with it?

 

[packersfan]

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Your average is incorrect since you forgot Warrick Dunn's 97 yards rushing in Week 3 and the fact the Bills rank dead last in rushing defense after three games.And yes, I agree Deuce has a great chance to have a big day on Sunday. See This Thread for more reasons why I like Deuce a lot this week.

 

[14464]

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Forgot to add Dunn. Basically, the Bills defense against the run is dead LAST in the NFL. I think that should speak volumns on where DMac should be ranked but maybe I'm just crazy.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Your average is incorrect since you forgot Warrick Dunn's 97 yards rushing in Week 3 and the fact the Bills rank dead last in rushing defense after three games.And yes, I agree Deuce has a great chance to have a big day on Sunday. See This Thread for more reasons why I like Deuce a lot this week.

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Forgot to add Dunn. Basically, the Bills defense against the run is dead LAST in the NFL. I think that should speak volumns on where DMac should be ranked but maybe I'm just crazy.

I'm not sure why you guys think I forgot to include Dunn. He wasn't the leading fantasy RB for the Falcons that game. Unless you expect Aaron Stecker to have a big week, I fail to see how including Dunn changes anything.

 

[Chase Stuart]

But by adding Dunn's 102 total yards and 0 TDs, the four RBs now average 12.1 FP/G. And Deuce is projected at 14.7. So what's the problem?

 

[14464]

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Your average is incorrect since you forgot Warrick Dunn's 97 yards rushing in Week 3 and the fact the Bills rank dead last in rushing defense after three games.And yes, I agree Deuce has a great chance to have a big day on Sunday. See This Thread for more reasons why I like Deuce a lot this week.

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Forgot to add Dunn. Basically, the Bills defense against the run is dead LAST in the NFL. I think that should speak volumns on where DMac should be ranked but maybe I'm just crazy.

I'm not sure why you guys think I forgot to include Dunn. He wasn't the leading fantasy RB for the Falcons that game. Unless you expect Aaron Stecker to have a big week, I fail to see how including Dunn changes anything.

The point is that all RB except DD has chewed up BUF defense which is dead last vs the run. Your average isn't valid.

 

[Gravedigger]

Just my opinion but there are two aspects of the bills D which aren't being paid attention to with just straight averages.First, are they good up the gut but slow, or do they have a speedy OL? BUF is good up the gut IMO. Hence Dom Davis vs Dunn and Carnell.Second, are the teams they played balanced or not. Balanced offenses are MUCh tougher to stop the run on and NO does not have a balanced offense, especially without Horn. Hence, Dom Davis vs Dunn and Carnell.I suspect the ranking is low because NO is more styled towards a HOU offense than a well balanced ATL or TB offense. And before I hear all about ATL being one dimensional, I would say that Vick is special in the sense that he adds a wrinkle to defenses by himself, just like a solid passing attack would.I'm not dis'ing McAllister. Think he's an excellent play this week. Just trying to fill out what might be reasons to worry about him. No passing attack, poor QBing, unimaginative play-calling, and I think DF's have a much easier time with you.Besides, McAllister got a couple pretty cheap TD's so far this year and his numbers are better than perhaps his average will be.

 

[packersfan]

The point is that all RB except DD has chewed up BUF defense which is dead last vs the run. Your average isn't valid.

Precisely. In the last two games, the Bills have been absolutely blasted by opposing RBs, giving up in excess of 125 rushing yards and TDs in both games. Given how McAllister doesn't share many carries with any other Saints' RB he's potentially in a position to have a very big game this week. Again, check out my linked thread for other reasons why this could happen.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Your average is incorrect since you forgot Warrick Dunn's 97 yards rushing in Week 3 and the fact the Bills rank dead last in rushing defense after three games.And yes, I agree Deuce has a great chance to have a big day on Sunday. See This Thread for more reasons why I like Deuce a lot this week.

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Forgot to add Dunn. Basically, the Bills defense against the run is dead LAST in the NFL. I think that should speak volumns on where DMac should be ranked but maybe I'm just crazy.

I'm not sure why you guys think I forgot to include Dunn. He wasn't the leading fantasy RB for the Falcons that game. Unless you expect Aaron Stecker to have a big week, I fail to see how including Dunn changes anything.

The point is that all RB except DD has chewed up BUF defense which is dead last vs the run. Your average isn't valid.

Buffalo's rank vs. the run doesn't mean a whole lot with respect to how Deuce McAllister will perform as a fantasy RB. Buffalo's rank vs the run includes meaningless things like rushing yards given up to opposing QBs and opposing WRs. Buffalo's rank vs. the run fails to include meaningful things like touchdowns allowed to opposing RBs and receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs.

If you want to get an idea for how many FPs a RB will get against a particular defense, you should look to see how many FPs previous RBs have scored against that defense. I'm not sure how my average isn't valid (unless you're talking about the one that includes Dunn, which I agree is unnecessary -- I just threw that in for the people that wanted Dunn.)

 

[packersfan]

Just my opinion but there are two aspects of the bills D which aren't being paid attention to with just straight averages.

First, are they good up the gut but slow, or do they have a speedy OL? BUF is good up the gut IMO. Hence Dom Davis vs Dunn and Carnell.

Second, are the teams they played balanced or not. Balanced offenses are MUCh tougher to stop the run on and NO does not have a balanced offense, especially without Horn. Hence, Dom Davis vs Dunn and Carnell.

I suspect the ranking is low because NO is more styled towards a HOU offense than a well balanced ATL or TB offense. And before I hear all about ATL being one dimensional, I would say that Vick is special in the sense that he adds a wrinkle to defenses by himself, just like a solid passing attack would.

I'm not dis'ing McAllister. Think he's an excellent play this week. Just trying to fill out what might be reasons to worry about him. No passing attack, poor QBing, unimaginative play-calling, and I think DF's have a much easier time with you.

Besides, McAllister got a couple pretty cheap TD's so far this year and his numbers are better than perhaps his average will be.

I'd say the Saints have a more balanced offense than the Falcons do. Vick played well last week, but the Falcons' passing game continues to be one of the worst in the NFL.

 

[14464]

The point is that all RB except DD has chewed up BUF defense which is dead last vs the run. Your average isn't valid.

Precisely. In the last two games, the Bills have been absolutely blasted by opposing RBs, giving up in excess of 125 rushing yards and TDs in both games. Given how McAllister doesn't share many carries with any other Saints' RB he's potentially in a position to have a very big game this week. Again, check out my linked thread for other reasons why this could happen.

And on the flipside, BUF is one of the BEST vs the passing which really doesn't say much in that if any team can run at will against them, they why pass?

 

[The Swarm]

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDs

Carnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

There isn't a problem, I'm seeking more information and discussion. Although I have to say I find the above numbers unconvincing. You've taken three individual rushing performances vs. the Bills (not even the top rushers I might add) and used that to suggest Deuce will come up in that ballpark. The Texans had a pretty weak rushing effort in week 1, true. Carr and DD both got ~40yds rushing. But week two the Bills gave up ~200 yds 2 TDs to a RBBC, and week 3 gave up well over ~200 yards and a touch to another. NO is not a RBBC.

 

[packersfan]

The point is that all RB except DD has chewed up BUF defense which is dead last vs the run. Your average isn't valid.

Precisely. In the last two games, the Bills have been absolutely blasted by opposing RBs, giving up in excess of 125 rushing yards and TDs in both games. Given how McAllister doesn't share many carries with any other Saints' RB he's potentially in a position to have a very big game this week. Again, check out my linked thread for other reasons why this could happen.

And on the flipside, BUF is one of the BEST vs the passing which really doesn't say much in that if any team can run at will against them, they why pass?

And they did give up two TD passes last week to one of the worst passing QBs in the NFL. So even without Horn (possibly) Brooks could get some things done tomorrow through the air.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The point is that all RB except DD has chewed up BUF defense which is dead last vs the run. Your average isn't valid.

Precisely. In the last two games, the Bills have been absolutely blasted by opposing RBs, giving up in excess of 125 rushing yards and TDs in both games. Given how McAllister doesn't share many carries with any other Saints' RB he's potentially in a position to have a very big game this week. Again, check out my linked thread for other reasons why this could happen.

Sure, but in the first game the Bills absolutely shut down one of the top multi-threat backs in the league. Dom Davis ranked FIFTH in yards from scrimmage last year, averaging 118 yards per game. He had less than half of that against Buffalo.Cadillac Williams played well, but didn't have any receiving yards.

Yes the Falcons ran well against the Bills, but I fail to see how you can make any meaningful comparison out of that. They have three good RBs; New Orleans has one. The Falcons ranked 1st in rushing yards last year, and New Orleans ranked 27th.

 

[14464]

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Your average is incorrect since you forgot Warrick Dunn's 97 yards rushing in Week 3 and the fact the Bills rank dead last in rushing defense after three games.And yes, I agree Deuce has a great chance to have a big day on Sunday. See This Thread for more reasons why I like Deuce a lot this week.

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Forgot to add Dunn. Basically, the Bills defense against the run is dead LAST in the NFL. I think that should speak volumns on where DMac should be ranked but maybe I'm just crazy.

I'm not sure why you guys think I forgot to include Dunn. He wasn't the leading fantasy RB for the Falcons that game. Unless you expect Aaron Stecker to have a big week, I fail to see how including Dunn changes anything.

The point is that all RB except DD has chewed up BUF defense which is dead last vs the run. Your average isn't valid.

Buffalo's rank vs. the run doesn't mean a whole lot with respect to how Deuce McAllister will perform as a fantasy RB.

Buffalo's rank vs the run includes meaningless things like rushing yards given up to opposing QBs and opposing WRs. Buffalo's rank vs. the run fails to include meaningful things like touchdowns allowed to opposing RBs and receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs.

If you want to get an idea for how many FPs a RB will get against a particular defense, you should look to see how many FPs previous RBs have scored against that defense. I'm not sure how my average isn't valid (unless you're talking about the one that includes Dunn, which I agree is unnecessary -- I just threw that in for the people that wanted Dunn.)

Did you read what you just posted? One more time, BUF defense is TERRIBLE against the run, in fact they are the WORST in the NFL.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDs

Carnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

There isn't a problem, I'm seeking more information and discussion. Although I have to say I find the above numbers unconvincing. You've taken three individual rushing performances vs. the Bills (not even the top rushers I might add) and used that to suggest Deuce will come up in that ballpark. The Texans had a pretty weak rushing effort in week 1, true. Carr and DD both got ~40yds rushing. But week two the Bills gave up ~200 yds 2 TDs to a RBBC, and week 3 gave up well over ~230 yards and a touch to another. NO is not a RBBC.

So why do you want to compare them to teams that are?

 

[LHUCKS]

Did you read what you just posted? 

One more time, BUF defense is TERRIBLE against the run, in fact they are the WORST in the NFL.

:11:

 

[WeScoreMore]

Did you read what you just posted?

One more time, BUF defense is TERRIBLE against the run, in fact they are the WORST in the NFL.

:11:

You know another team in the NFL giving up 5+ per carry?

 

[packersfan]

Sure, but in the first game the Bills absolutely shut down one of the top multi-threat backs in the league. Dom Davis ranked FIFTH in yards from scrimmage last year, averaging 118 yards per game. He had less than half of that against Buffalo.

The Bills' run defense played well in that game. Agreed.

Cadillac Williams played well

He went for 128 and a TD. I'd say he did a lot more than just play well. He had a terrific game.

, but didn't have any receiving yards.

So? He didn't need to have any to generate a terrific fantasy game. Plus he's not the receiver out of the backfield that McAllister is. So now McAllister is looking even better given that skill.

Yes the Falcons ran well against the Bills, but I fail to see how you can make any meaningful comparison out of that. They have three good RBs; New Orleans has one. The Falcons ranked 1st in rushing yards last year, and New Orleans ranked 27th.

What does last year have to do with anything? Means nothing. All that matters is how the teams are playing this season and the Bills' run defense has been blasted the last two weeks and ranks dead last in the NFL. That bodes VERY well for McAllister's chances tomorrow. And again, I listed other reasons why he could deliver a big game in the thread I started earlier today. There are a number of reasons to like McAllister a lot this week.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Your average is incorrect since you forgot Warrick Dunn's 97 yards rushing in Week 3 and the fact the Bills rank dead last in rushing defense after three games.And yes, I agree Deuce has a great chance to have a big day on Sunday. See This Thread for more reasons why I like Deuce a lot this week.

Without being too specific, Deuce is ranked out of the top ten this week, and I'm struggling to see why. He's running against the Bills, which have given up the most rushing yards in the NFL to date-- and it isn't even a close contest (31st ranked Vikes have nearly 100 yards less rushing allowed). The Bills rush D is like a turnstile thus far, and Deuce McAllister isn't exactly a slouch at RB.

On the other hand, the DAL/OAK RB's are getting some love, even though both DAL and OAK have decent rush D's but give it up through the air. Am I missing something obvious? Because I have no hesitation about pitting Deuce against the Bills.

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDsCarnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

Forgot to add Dunn. Basically, the Bills defense against the run is dead LAST in the NFL. I think that should speak volumns on where DMac should be ranked but maybe I'm just crazy.

I'm not sure why you guys think I forgot to include Dunn. He wasn't the leading fantasy RB for the Falcons that game. Unless you expect Aaron Stecker to have a big week, I fail to see how including Dunn changes anything.

The point is that all RB except DD has chewed up BUF defense which is dead last vs the run. Your average isn't valid.

Buffalo's rank vs. the run doesn't mean a whole lot with respect to how Deuce McAllister will perform as a fantasy RB.

Buffalo's rank vs the run includes meaningless things like rushing yards given up to opposing QBs and opposing WRs. Buffalo's rank vs. the run fails to include meaningful things like touchdowns allowed to opposing RBs and receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs.

If you want to get an idea for how many FPs a RB will get against a particular defense, you should look to see how many FPs previous RBs have scored against that defense. I'm not sure how my average isn't valid (unless you're talking about the one that includes Dunn, which I agree is unnecessary -- I just threw that in for the people that wanted Dunn.)

Did you read what you just posted? One more time, BUF defense is TERRIBLE against the run, in fact they are the WORST in the NFL.

I'm not sure what's confusing here. A team's rank against the run doesn't mean much with respect to how many FPs the opposition's number 1 RB will have. Example:

Team X allows 500 rushing yards in two games.

Team Y allows 100 rushing yards in two games.

Team X has allowed 200 rushing yards to opposing QBs, 200 rushing yards to opposing RBs and 100 rushing yards to opposing WRs. Team X hasn't allowed any touchdowns, and opposing RBs have 0 receiving yards.

Team Y has allowed 100 rushing yards to opposing RBs. Team Y has allowed 4 rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Team Y has allowed 100 receiving yards to opposing RBs.

RBs against team X are averaging 100 total yards and 0 TDs/game = 10 FPs/game.

RBs against team Y are averaging 200 total yards and 2 TDs/game = 32 FP/game.

Does this help to explain why a team's rank vs. the run doesn't mean a whole lot with respect to how many FPs you project them to allow against an opposing RB?

 

[The Swarm]

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDs

Carnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

There isn't a problem, I'm seeking more information and discussion. Although I have to say I find the above numbers unconvincing. You've taken three individual rushing performances vs. the Bills (not even the top rushers I might add) and used that to suggest Deuce will come up in that ballpark. The Texans had a pretty weak rushing effort in week 1, true. Carr and DD both got ~40yds rushing. But week two the Bills gave up ~200 yds 2 TDs to a RBBC, and week 3 gave up well over ~230 yards and a touch to another. NO is not a RBBC.

So why do you want to compare them to teams that are?

RBBC= Fantasy point splitsingle RB = no FP split

 

[packersfan]

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDs

Carnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

There isn't a problem, I'm seeking more information and discussion. Although I have to say I find the above numbers unconvincing. You've taken three individual rushing performances vs. the Bills (not even the top rushers I might add) and used that to suggest Deuce will come up in that ballpark. The Texans had a pretty weak rushing effort in week 1, true. Carr and DD both got ~40yds rushing. But week two the Bills gave up ~200 yds 2 TDs to a RBBC, and week 3 gave up well over ~230 yards and a touch to another. NO is not a RBBC.

So why do you want to compare them to teams that are?

RBBC= Fantasy point splitsingle RB = no FP split

Not really sure why that had to be spelled out to be honest. I figured it should've been pretty obvious.

 

[14464]

Did you read what you just posted?

One more time, BUF defense is TERRIBLE against the run, in fact they are the WORST in the NFL.

:11:

You know another team in the NFL giving up 5+ per carry?

He doesn't watch football, don't mind him.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Sure, but in the first game the Bills absolutely shut down one of the top multi-threat backs in the league. Dom Davis ranked FIFTH in yards from scrimmage last year, averaging 118 yards per game. He had less than half of that against Buffalo.

The Bills' run defense played well in that game. Agreed.

Cadillac Williams played well

He went for 128 and a TD. I'd say he did a lot more than just play well. He had a terrific game.

, but didn't have any receiving yards.

So? He didn't need to have any to generate a terrific fantasy game. Plus he's not the receiver out of the backfield that McAllister is. So now McAllister is looking even better given that skill.

Yes the Falcons ran well against the Bills, but I fail to see how you can make any meaningful comparison out of that. They have three good RBs; New Orleans has one. The Falcons ranked 1st in rushing yards last year, and New Orleans ranked 27th.

What does last year have to do with anything? Means nothing. All that matters is how the teams are playing this season and the Bills' run defense has been blasted the last two weeks and ranks dead last in the NFL. That bodes VERY well for McAllister's chances tomorrow. And again, I listed other reasons why he could deliver a big game in the thread I started earlier today. There are a number of reasons to like McAllister a lot this week.

We agree the Bills run D played very well in week 1.In week 2, Carnell Williams had 18.8 FPs. That's a very good game, but I personally wouldn't call it terrific. He was the 5th best RB that week, so it's definitely a very strong game.

In week 3, the Bills played a team that ranks 1st in rushing this year, and ranked 1st in rushing last year. I'm not sure what the usefulness is to compare them to a team that ranked 27th in rushing last year and is ranked 20th in rushing this year. Do you?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Dom Davis - 57 total yards, 0 TDs

Carnell Williams - 128 total yards, 1 TD

TJ Duckett - 75 total yards, 1 TD

Average: 86.7 total yards per game, 0.67 TDs = 12.7 FP/game. Deuce is projected to have 14.7 FP on Sunday. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

There isn't a problem, I'm seeking more information and discussion. Although I have to say I find the above numbers unconvincing. You've taken three individual rushing performances vs. the Bills (not even the top rushers I might add) and used that to suggest Deuce will come up in that ballpark. The Texans had a pretty weak rushing effort in week 1, true. Carr and DD both got ~40yds rushing. But week two the Bills gave up ~200 yds 2 TDs to a RBBC, and week 3 gave up well over ~230 yards and a touch to another. NO is not a RBBC.

So why do you want to compare them to teams that are?

RBBC= Fantasy point splitsingle RB = no FP split

Don't you think the reason they score so many points was because they have a RBBC? Dunn and Duckett have combined for 21 more carries than McAllister this year, and their complementary styles make it more difficult for defenses to contain them. Does looking at what Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes combine for make for a good starting point for your projections of teams with a single RB?

 

[14464]

Sure, but in the first game the Bills absolutely shut down one of the top multi-threat backs in the league. Dom Davis ranked FIFTH in yards from scrimmage last year, averaging 118 yards per game. He had less than half of that against Buffalo.

The Bills' run defense played well in that game. Agreed.

Cadillac Williams played well

He went for 128 and a TD. I'd say he did a lot more than just play well. He had a terrific game.

, but didn't have any receiving yards.

So? He didn't need to have any to generate a terrific fantasy game. Plus he's not the receiver out of the backfield that McAllister is. So now McAllister is looking even better given that skill.

Yes the Falcons ran well against the Bills, but I fail to see how you can make any meaningful comparison out of that. They have three good RBs; New Orleans has one. The Falcons ranked 1st in rushing yards last year, and New Orleans ranked 27th.

What does last year have to do with anything? Means nothing. All that matters is how the teams are playing this season and the Bills' run defense has been blasted the last two weeks and ranks dead last in the NFL. That bodes VERY well for McAllister's chances tomorrow. And again, I listed other reasons why he could deliver a big game in the thread I started earlier today. There are a number of reasons to like McAllister a lot this week.

We agree the Bills run D played very well in week 1.In week 2, Carnell Williams had 18.8 FPs. That's a very good game, but I personally wouldn't call it terrific. He was the 5th best RB that week, so it's definitely a very strong game.

In week 3, the Bills played a team that ranks 1st in rushing this year, and ranked 1st in rushing last year. I'm not sure what the usefulness is to compare them to a team that ranked 27th in rushing last year and is ranked 20th in rushing this year. Do you?

The thing is the the Bills can't stop anyone unless they play a team like the Texans who has NO offensive line. This says nothing about BUF run defense and more about how bad the Texans are. In regards to fantasy production, you look at the other RB and they have destroyed their run defense. They are dead last at this point.

 

[packersfan]

We agree the Bills run D played very well in week 1.

In week 2, Carnell Williams had 18.8 FPs. That's a very good game, but I personally wouldn't call it terrific. He was the 5th best RB that week, so it's definitely a very strong game.

Being the 5th-ranked RB in a week isn't a terrific game? Dropping nearly 130 yards and a TD on a supposedly strong defense isn't a terrific game? Wow. Seriously. Wow. What standards do you judge RBs by?In any event, if Deuce duplicated Williams' effort and was the 5th-ranked RB this week, that would definitely legitimatize the point of this thread, wouldn't it?

In week 3, the Bills played a team that ranks 1st in rushing this year, and ranked 1st in rushing last year. I'm not sure what the usefulness is to compare them to a team that ranked 27th in rushing last year and is ranked 20th in rushing this year. Do you?

Of course. The usefulness is assessing how the Bills are doing in terms of their run defense. In the last two weeks they have given up nearly 300 rushing yards to RBs with a pair of TDs. That alone bodes well for McAllister. The Bills have shown no ability to stop the run in those games and there is nothing to suggest their offense will be able to do to the Saints what the Giants and Vikings did to them the last two weeks ... i.e. take the running game away. As long as that does not occur the Saints will keep feeding McAllister the ball. And as I presented in the thread I have referenced a couple of times already, when McAllister gets 20+ carries in a game he almost always delivers a strong game for fantasy owners.Combine the historical data with the Bills' poor run defense and with the way the game will likely be played and there are a number of signs which point toward McAllister having a strong game this week and exceeding his ranking.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Sure, but in the first game the Bills absolutely shut down one of the top multi-threat backs in the league. Dom Davis ranked FIFTH in yards from scrimmage last year, averaging 118 yards per game. He had less than half of that against Buffalo.

The Bills' run defense played well in that game. Agreed.

Cadillac Williams played well

He went for 128 and a TD. I'd say he did a lot more than just play well. He had a terrific game.

, but didn't have any receiving yards.

So? He didn't need to have any to generate a terrific fantasy game. Plus he's not the receiver out of the backfield that McAllister is. So now McAllister is looking even better given that skill.

Yes the Falcons ran well against the Bills, but I fail to see how you can make any meaningful comparison out of that. They have three good RBs; New Orleans has one. The Falcons ranked 1st in rushing yards last year, and New Orleans ranked 27th.

What does last year have to do with anything? Means nothing. All that matters is how the teams are playing this season and the Bills' run defense has been blasted the last two weeks and ranks dead last in the NFL. That bodes VERY well for McAllister's chances tomorrow. And again, I listed other reasons why he could deliver a big game in the thread I started earlier today. There are a number of reasons to like McAllister a lot this week.

We agree the Bills run D played very well in week 1.In week 2, Carnell Williams had 18.8 FPs. That's a very good game, but I personally wouldn't call it terrific. He was the 5th best RB that week, so it's definitely a very strong game.

In week 3, the Bills played a team that ranks 1st in rushing this year, and ranked 1st in rushing last year. I'm not sure what the usefulness is to compare them to a team that ranked 27th in rushing last year and is ranked 20th in rushing this year. Do you?

The thing is the the Bills can't stop anyone unless they play a team like the Texans who has NO offensive line. This says nothing about BUF run defense and more about how bad the Texans are. In regards to fantasy production, you look at the other RB and they have destroyed their run defense. They are dead last at this point.

Ok, we'll leave out Dom Davis (who was by far the best RB of the guys mentioned so far last year) for no real reason. Moving forward...Cadillac Williams had 18.8 FPs. Warrick Dunn had 10.2. TJ Duckett had 13.5. The trio averaged 14.2 FP/G against the Bills, and averaged 17 carries. Deuce McAllister has averaged 18 carries per game this year, and is projected for 14.7 FPs. Once again, I ask what's the big confusion.

 

[mojorizin]

Ohhh, I thought the thread was about Deuce being SLOW. I was going to come in and wholeheartedly agree.

 

[Chase Stuart]

We agree the Bills run D played very well in week 1.

In week 2, Carnell Williams had 18.8 FPs. That's a very good game, but I personally wouldn't call it terrific. He was the 5th best RB that week, so it's definitely a very strong game.

Being the 5th-ranked RB in a week isn't a terrific game? Dropping nearly 130 yards and a TD on a supposedly strong defense isn't a terrific game? Wow. Seriously. Wow. What standards do you judge RBs by?In any event, if Deuce duplicated Williams' effort and was the 5th-ranked RB this week, that would definitely legitimatize the point of this thread, wouldn't it?

In week 3, the Bills played a team that ranks 1st in rushing this year, and ranked 1st in rushing last year. I'm not sure what the usefulness is to compare them to a team that ranked 27th in rushing last year and is ranked 20th in rushing this year. Do you?

Of course. The usefulness is assessing how the Bills are doing in terms of their run defense. In the last two weeks they have given up nearly 300 rushing yards to RBs with a pair of TDs. That alone bodes well for McAllister. The Bills have shown no ability to stop the run in those games and there is nothing to suggest their offense will be able to do to the Saints what the Giants and Vikings did to them the last two weeks ... i.e. take the running game away. As long as that does not occur the Saints will keep feeding McAllister the ball. And as I presented in the thread I have referenced a couple of times already, when McAllister gets 20+ carries in a game he almost always delivers a strong game for fantasy owners.Combine the historical data with the Bills' poor run defense and with the way the game will likely be played and there are a number of signs which point toward McAllister having a strong game this week and exceeding his ranking.

I don't care how many rushing yards or TDs Williams had against Buffalo. He had 18.8 FPs, which is very good, but not great. Eight RBs alone did that last week. I'll refrain from responding to your circular logic question.I agree if Deuce ranks fifth, that's very good and to some extent legitimizes this thread. But it's not like FBGs has him ranked 20th.

I still don't understand why you keep referring to the Falcons game. Let me try this:

Let's say Randy Moss goes for 160/2 next week against team Y. Now the 49ers play team Y this week. Are you going to base your projections for Brandon Lloyd based on what Moss did a week ago?

 

[Archie Bunker]

Chase,Your logic ise so pitiful on so many levels, it is almost embarrasing. I don't mean to flame you, but I just don't know how else to state it.1. You pulled Duckett into begin with. In RBBC, you can almost take the two RB stats and combine into one to compare to a 1RB team like NO.2. It is not wise to base averages on 3 games only, especially with 3 distinctly different teams. The rule of thumb in stats is that you need at least 5 data points to even come close to approximateing an average.3. The Bills are missing Takeo Spikes this week. 4. Duckett & Dunn have 21 more carries than Deuce for a reason. Atlanta has been leading/in close games all year. New Orleans has played from behind at least twice, forcing them to throw. Buffalo has, by far, the weakest of all the offenses NO has faced this year. Chances of New Orleans falling behind Buff by 14+ is less likely than against the Giants or Vikings or Panthers.If I had a couple of more minutes, I could probably find a few more holes in your logic.

 

[packersfan]

I don't care how many rushing yards or TDs Williams had against Buffalo.

That seems to be your biggest problem here because everyone else is using the yardage that other RBs have gained on the Bills as a way to project what McAllister may be able to do tomorrow. And that directly relates to his fantasy production. Not sure why that's something you're so eager to dismiss.

He had 18.8 FPs, which is very good, but not great. Eight RBs alone did that last week.

That's nice. How many did it in Week 2 when Williams did it? And how many will do it this week? That last question, by the way, is the most important one.

I'll refrain from responding to your circular logic question.

I haven't posed any circular logic questions. I've made direct statements and backed them up.

I agree if Deuce ranks fifth, that's very good and to some extent legitimizes this thread. But it's not like FBGs has him ranked 20th.

No one is saying that was the case.

I still don't understand why you keep referring to the Falcons game. Let me try this:

Let's say Randy Moss goes for 160/2 next week against team Y. Now the 49ers play team Y this week. Are you going to base your projections for Brandon Lloyd based on what Moss did a week ago?

Silly comparison. First off, Dunn and Duckett aren't among the elite RBs in the league (as Moss is at the WR position). And McAllister would be ranked considerably higher at his position than Lloyd.I'm not sure why you're so eager to dismiss the Falcons' production. It clearly is vital when assessing how the Bills are doing as a run defense and what other teams (notably the Saints this week) could do against them potentially. It's curious that you're so determined to ignore information that is extremely vital to the discussion at hand.

 

[14464]

Sure, but in the first game the Bills absolutely shut down one of the top multi-threat backs in the league. Dom Davis ranked FIFTH in yards from scrimmage last year, averaging 118 yards per game. He had less than half of that against Buffalo.

The Bills' run defense played well in that game. Agreed.

Cadillac Williams played well

He went for 128 and a TD. I'd say he did a lot more than just play well. He had a terrific game.

, but didn't have any receiving yards.

So? He didn't need to have any to generate a terrific fantasy game. Plus he's not the receiver out of the backfield that McAllister is. So now McAllister is looking even better given that skill.

Yes the Falcons ran well against the Bills, but I fail to see how you can make any meaningful comparison out of that. They have three good RBs; New Orleans has one. The Falcons ranked 1st in rushing yards last year, and New Orleans ranked 27th.

What does last year have to do with anything? Means nothing. All that matters is how the teams are playing this season and the Bills' run defense has been blasted the last two weeks and ranks dead last in the NFL. That bodes VERY well for McAllister's chances tomorrow. And again, I listed other reasons why he could deliver a big game in the thread I started earlier today. There are a number of reasons to like McAllister a lot this week.

We agree the Bills run D played very well in week 1.In week 2, Carnell Williams had 18.8 FPs. That's a very good game, but I personally wouldn't call it terrific. He was the 5th best RB that week, so it's definitely a very strong game.

In week 3, the Bills played a team that ranks 1st in rushing this year, and ranked 1st in rushing last year. I'm not sure what the usefulness is to compare them to a team that ranked 27th in rushing last year and is ranked 20th in rushing this year. Do you?

The thing is the the Bills can't stop anyone unless they play a team like the Texans who has NO offensive line. This says nothing about BUF run defense and more about how bad the Texans are. In regards to fantasy production, you look at the other RB and they have destroyed their run defense. They are dead last at this point.

Ok, we'll leave out Dom Davis (who was by far the best RB of the guys mentioned so far last year) for no real reason. Moving forward...Cadillac Williams had 18.8 FPs. Warrick Dunn had 10.2. TJ Duckett had 13.5. The trio averaged 14.2 FP/G against the Bills, and averaged 17 carries. Deuce McAllister has averaged 18 carries per game this year, and is projected for 14.7 FPs. Once again, I ask what's the big confusion.

Fine, leave him in but then correct your average, it isn't correct. There's a RB named Dunn who ripped them up as well.BUF is so bad vs the run it was even apparent last year when Willie Parker ran all over them in a game that BUF had to win to get into the playoffs which they lost.

 

[packersfan]

4. Duckett & Dunn have 21 more carries than Deuce for a reason. Atlanta has been leading/in close games all year. New Orleans has played from behind at least twice, forcing them to throw. Buffalo has, by far, the weakest of all the offenses NO has faced this year. Chances of New Orleans falling behind Buff by 14+ is less likely than against the Giants or Vikings or Panthers.

I've tried to explain this point at least three times in this thread but it's been ignored every time. Curious.

 

[The Swarm]

Don't you think the reason they score so many points was because they have a RBBC? Dunn and Duckett have combined for 21 more carries than McAllister this year, and their complementary styles make it more difficult for defenses to contain them. Does looking at what Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes combine for make for a good starting point for your projections of teams with a single RB?

I can see your point about ATL being the #1 rushing attack vs. the Saints middle-of-the-road rushing attack, and having two fresh guys to run in tandem leads to more carries and more yards. But surely you can concede that a lion's share RB will see a modest increase in points over a RBBC's #2 guy.Let's take an extreme example: Michael Pittman's 7 rushes for 46 yards, or over 6 YPC. That's the #2 guy in TB.

 

[14464]

I don't care how many rushing yards or TDs Williams had against Buffalo.

That seems to be your biggest problem here because everyone else is using the yardage that other RBs have gained on the Bills as a way to project what McAllister may be able to do tomorrow. And that directly relates to his fantasy production. Not sure why that's something you're so eager to dismiss.

He had 18.8 FPs, which is very good, but not great. Eight RBs alone did that last week.

That's nice. How many did it in Week 2 when Williams did it? And how many will do it this week? That last question, by the way, is the most important one.

I'll refrain from responding to your circular logic question.

I haven't posed any circular logic questions. I've made direct statements and backed them up.

I agree if Deuce ranks fifth, that's very good and to some extent legitimizes this thread. But it's not like FBGs has him ranked 20th.

No one is saying that was the case.

I still don't understand why you keep referring to the Falcons game. Let me try this:

Let's say Randy Moss goes for 160/2 next week against team Y. Now the 49ers play team Y this week. Are you going to base your projections for Brandon Lloyd based on what Moss did a week ago?

Silly comparison. First off, Dunn and Duckett aren't among the elite RBs in the league (as Moss is at the WR position). And McAllister would be ranked considerably higher at his position than Lloyd.I'm not sure why you're so eager to dismiss the Falcons' production. It clearly is vital when assessing how the Bills are doing as a run defense and what other teams (notably the Saints this week) could do against them potentially. It's curious that you're so determined to ignore information that is extremely vital to the discussion at hand.

 

[Third]

I'm not sure what's confusing here. A team's rank against the run doesn't mean much with respect to how many FPs the opposition's number 1 RB will have.

Example:

Team X allows 500 rushing yards in two games.

Team Y allows 100 rushing yards in two games.

Team X has allowed 200 rushing yards to opposing QBs, 200 rushing yards to opposing RBs and 100 rushing yards to opposing WRs. Team X hasn't allowed any touchdowns, and opposing RBs have 0 receiving yards.

Team Y has allowed 100 rushing yards to opposing RBs. Team Y has allowed 4 rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Team Y has allowed 100 receiving yards to opposing RBs.

RBs against team X are averaging 100 total yards and 0 TDs/game = 10 FPs/game.

RBs against team Y are averaging 200 total yards and 2 TDs/game = 32 FP/game.

Does this help to explain why a team's rank vs. the run doesn't mean a whole lot with respect to how many FPs you project them to allow against an opposing RB?

Is this the dumbest thing I've ever read?! I think it might be. What parallel universe are you in where Team X gives up 200 yards rushing to QBs and 100 yards rushing to WRs - in 2 weeks???

I guess if we're playing dress-up and make-believe we could discount a DEF rushing yards per game stat by hypothetically saying that 60 percent of the rushing yards given up by that DEF was given up to non-RBs....

 

[WeScoreMore]

I don't care how many rushing yards or TDs Williams had against Buffalo. He had 18.8 FPs, which is very good, but not great. Eight RBs alone did that last week. I'll refrain from responding to your circular logic question.

Dude what you smoking? Look at Dodds projections. Only ONE OR TWO RBs are even projected at 18fpts this week.

 

[Chase Stuart]

That seems to be your biggest problem here because everyone else is using the yardage that other RBs have gained on the Bills as a way to project what McAllister may be able to do tomorrow. And that directly relates to his fantasy production. Not sure why that's something you're so eager to dismiss.

Sure it directly relates, but there is more to FPs than that. Namely TDs and receiving yards. NO ONE is using what other RBs have done against the bills, but rather what other teams have done against the Bills.

I haven't posed any circular logic questions. I've made direct statements and backed them up.

Wasn't it you that said Carnell Williams had a great game against the supposedly tough Buffalo D, and since Carnell Williams did so well the Buffalo D isn't that good?

Silly comparison. First off, Dunn and Duckett aren't among the elite RBs in the league (as Moss is at the WR position). And McAllister would be ranked considerably higher at his position than Lloyd.

Silly comparison? I never brought up Dunn and Duckett, but rather the Falcons rushing offense. The Falcons offense was number 1 in rushing last year and this year. Randy Moss isn't the number 1 WR this year, and he wasn't last year. Yes McAllister is better at his position than Lloyd, but the point I thought was obvious: you don't base projections on outliers (especially one like the Falcons rushing attack).

I'm not sure why you're so eager to dismiss the Falcons' production. It clearly is vital when assessing how the Bills are doing as a run defense and what other teams (notably the Saints this week) could do against them potentially. It's curious that you're so determined to ignore information that is extremely vital to the discussion at hand.

Have you heard of Mike Vick?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Sure, but in the first game the Bills absolutely shut down one of the top multi-threat backs in the league. Dom Davis ranked FIFTH in yards from scrimmage last year, averaging 118 yards per game. He had less than half of that against Buffalo.

The Bills' run defense played well in that game. Agreed.

Cadillac Williams played well

He went for 128 and a TD. I'd say he did a lot more than just play well. He had a terrific game.

, but didn't have any receiving yards.

So? He didn't need to have any to generate a terrific fantasy game. Plus he's not the receiver out of the backfield that McAllister is. So now McAllister is looking even better given that skill.

Yes the Falcons ran well against the Bills, but I fail to see how you can make any meaningful comparison out of that. They have three good RBs; New Orleans has one. The Falcons ranked 1st in rushing yards last year, and New Orleans ranked 27th.

What does last year have to do with anything? Means nothing. All that matters is how the teams are playing this season and the Bills' run defense has been blasted the last two weeks and ranks dead last in the NFL. That bodes VERY well for McAllister's chances tomorrow. And again, I listed other reasons why he could deliver a big game in the thread I started earlier today. There are a number of reasons to like McAllister a lot this week.

We agree the Bills run D played very well in week 1.In week 2, Carnell Williams had 18.8 FPs. That's a very good game, but I personally wouldn't call it terrific. He was the 5th best RB that week, so it's definitely a very strong game.

In week 3, the Bills played a team that ranks 1st in rushing this year, and ranked 1st in rushing last year. I'm not sure what the usefulness is to compare them to a team that ranked 27th in rushing last year and is ranked 20th in rushing this year. Do you?

The thing is the the Bills can't stop anyone unless they play a team like the Texans who has NO offensive line. This says nothing about BUF run defense and more about how bad the Texans are. In regards to fantasy production, you look at the other RB and they have destroyed their run defense. They are dead last at this point.

Ok, we'll leave out Dom Davis (who was by far the best RB of the guys mentioned so far last year) for no real reason. Moving forward...Cadillac Williams had 18.8 FPs. Warrick Dunn had 10.2. TJ Duckett had 13.5. The trio averaged 14.2 FP/G against the Bills, and averaged 17 carries. Deuce McAllister has averaged 18 carries per game this year, and is projected for 14.7 FPs. Once again, I ask what's the big confusion.

Fine, leave him in but then correct your average, it isn't correct. There's a RB named Dunn who ripped them up as well.BUF is so bad vs the run it was even apparent last year when Willie Parker ran all over them in a game that BUF had to win to get into the playoffs which they lost.

Why isn't the average correct? Three RBs, three games, they averaged 14.2 FP/G.

 

[Chase Stuart]

4. Duckett & Dunn have 21 more carries than Deuce for a reason. Atlanta has been leading/in close games all year. New Orleans has played from behind at least twice, forcing them to throw. Buffalo has, by far, the weakest of all the offenses NO has faced this year. Chances of New Orleans falling behind Buff by 14+ is less likely than against the Giants or Vikings or Panthers.

I've tried to explain this point at least three times in this thread but it's been ignored every time. Curious.

This is a good point, but it wasn't what I was arguing against. This, combined with the loss of Spikes, should be the reason for your argument. Not because the Falcons ran for a lot of yards last week.

 

[The Swarm]

Is this the dumbest thing I've ever read?! I think it might be.

What parallel universe are you in where Team X gives up 200 yards rushing to QBs and 100 yards rushing to WRs - in 2 weeks???

I guess if we're playing dress-up and make-believe we could discount a DEF rushing yards per game stat by hypothetically saying that 60 percent of the rushing yards given up by that DEF was given up to non-RBs....

Not saying I'm not bemused by some of the arguments in this thread, but he was trying to simplify the case by using round numbers to illustrate his point. Opposing QB's have 100 yds and a touch against the Bills this year. Now as for the underlying logic, that is still under debate.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm not sure what's confusing here. A team's rank against the run doesn't mean much with respect to how many FPs the opposition's number 1 RB will have.

Example:

Team X allows 500 rushing yards in two games.

Team Y allows 100 rushing yards in two games.

Team X has allowed 200 rushing yards to opposing QBs, 200 rushing yards to opposing RBs and 100 rushing yards to opposing WRs. Team X hasn't allowed any touchdowns, and opposing RBs have 0 receiving yards.

Team Y has allowed 100 rushing yards to opposing RBs. Team Y has allowed 4 rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Team Y has allowed 100 receiving yards to opposing RBs.

RBs against team X are averaging 100 total yards and 0 TDs/game = 10 FPs/game.

RBs against team Y are averaging 200 total yards and 2 TDs/game = 32 FP/game.

Does this help to explain why a team's rank vs. the run doesn't mean a whole lot with respect to how many FPs you project them to allow against an opposing RB?

Is this the dumbest thing I've ever read?! I think it might be. What parallel universe are you in where Team X gives up 200 yards rushing to QBs and 100 yards rushing to WRs - in 2 weeks???

I guess if we're playing dress-up and make-believe we could discount a DEF rushing yards per game stat by hypothetically saying that 60 percent of the rushing yards given up by that DEF was given up to non-RBs....

I'm sorry the theory went over your head. We don't need to discount a DEF rushing yards per game stat. We have exactly what you want: How many FPs/game a team is allowing to opposing RBs. Why would you want to use Def rushing yards allowed per game doesn't make much sense to me.

 

[packersfan]

Sure it directly relates, but there is more to FPs than that. Namely TDs and receiving yards. NO ONE is using what other RBs have done against the bills, but rather what other teams have done against the Bills.

And the fact is the Bills' run defense has allowed TDs in each of the past two games. And the fact is McAllister is a good receiver out of the backfield for the Saints. So that adds yet another reason for him to be looking good potentially this week.

Wasn't it you that said Carnell Williams had a great game against the supposedly tough Buffalo D, and since Carnell Williams did so well the Buffalo D isn't that good?

Yes I did. Not sure I see your point here. Williams had 128 yards and a TD. I said that was a terrific game. You disagreed even after pointing out that he ranked 5th among RBs in Week 2 -- which clearly supported my point by the way.

Silly comparison? I never brought up Dunn and Duckett, but rather the Falcons rushing offense.

You were the first to mention Duckett in this thread. Curiously, you omitted Dunn. It was Clear and I who mentioned him first.

The Falcons offense was number 1 in rushing last year and this year. Randy Moss isn't the number 1 WR this year, and he wasn't last year. Yes McAllister is better at his position than Lloyd, but the point I thought was obvious: you don't base projections on outliers (especially one like the Falcons rushing attack).

I don't base any of my projections for this week on what happened last season. Let's get that straight right off the bat. Secondly, you base projections on what a player is capable of accomplishing combined with what he is facing in terms of an opposing defense. As I have stated here and in my other thread there are a number of reasons why McAllister could be projected to have a very good game this week. And one of the reasons for that is the Bills' run defense, which has been obliterated the last two weeks, has lost Takeo Spikes and ranks last in the league.

Have you heard of Mike Vick?

Yes I have, but if you notice I've not brought him into the equation in terms of the rushing success the Falcons enjoyed. I omitted him entirely for obvious reasons.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I don't care how many rushing yards or TDs Williams had against Buffalo. He had 18.8 FPs, which is very good, but not great. Eight RBs alone did that last week. I'll refrain from responding to your circular logic question.

Dude what you smoking? Look at Dodds projections. Only ONE OR TWO RBs are even projected at 18fpts this week.

Hey WeScoreMore,Group projections and individual results are two entirely different things.