Devin Hester (1 Viewer)

[RJS113]

First of all, I just want to point out that I do not own Hester in any leagues, so this post is completely unbiased.

Hester is currently ranked as the 39th receiver in redrafts. He is the Bears #1 receiver, and has received a huge upgrade at QB. Cutler's top two WRs last year combined for 195 catches, 2245 yards, and 11 TDs. I know Hester isn't as talented of a WR as Marshall or Royal, and Chicago isn't running the same offense as Denver. But I find it hard to believe that Cutler's #1 receiver won't have AT LEAST 1000 yards.

Last year was only Hester's 2nd year playing WR, and he showed nice improvement from the year before. I expect to see him make a huge jump this year with Cutler at QB.

2009 Projections:

80 Catches

1200 Yards

7 TDs

Now, what I really don't understand, is Hester's dynasty ranking. How does a 26 year old WR who is still just learning the position, ranked 39th in redrafts, but 49th in dynasty leagues? The Bears don't have a first round pick next year, so it isn't going to be easy for them to aquire a top WR. And I just don't see how anyone can have him ranked behind players like Deion Branch in dynasty leagues.

What reason is there to have Hester's dynasty ranking 10 spots lower than his redraft ranking?

 

[renesauz]

FWIW...A lot of FBG's will agree with your assessment overall...althoug I think your projection to be a little too high.

It remains to be seen if Cutler will take to Hester or his old buddy Bennett....but I agree Hester tends to be under-rated more often then over.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

FWIW... Hester's going WR32-35 in actual dynasty drafts. The staff are also moving him up since he was ranked #55 a few weeks ago.

 

[RJS113]

FWIW...A lot of FBG's will agree with your assessment overall...althoug I think your projection to be a little too high.It remains to be seen if Cutler will take to Hester or his old buddy Bennett....but I agree Hester tends to be under-rated more often then over.

Maybe. But I think his floor has to be at about 1000 and 5.As far as Bennett, as good as him and Cutler were together at Vandy, it's still to be seen whether he can play at a NFL level. The competition he'll be facing now is night and day.

 

[Couch Potato]

I was pretty vocal last year about Hester and didn't get much support. He was generally being ranked from the 60s to 90+ in various websites, unranked by some FBG staff here IIRC (FBG staff rankings go to 75).

He finished as WR44, and that was with just 3 TDs, IMO a fluke total.

In another thread recently (the Pierre Thomas thread) I mentioned Hester as being undervalued again with Cutler able to get him the deep ball. I think he s/b in the high 20s / low 30s given the current WR mix.

One caveat though, a Plax signing would change all that.

As for dynasty rankings being lower than redraft rankings, it's because there are only 5 guys doing the dynasty rankings and if just a couple don't believe, the rankings are much lower. Hester's dynasty rankings are all over the map with these 5, at 33-39-51-64-unr.

Tefertiller is the 64, and Waldman the unranked. It's these guys you may want to ask for their specific reasons. Perhaps they see Hester as a temp #1 in CHI, with either Bennett surpassing him or another guy coming in to take the #1 role this year or next. I'm speculating, I don't want to speak for them.

 

[gianmarco]

First of all, I just want to point out that I do not own Hester in any leagues, so this post is completely unbiased.

Hester is currently ranked as the 39th receiver in redrafts. He is the Bears #1 receiver, and has received a huge upgrade at QB. Cutler's top two WRs last year combined for 195 catches, 2245 yards, and 11 TDs. I know Hester isn't as talented of a WR as Marshall or Royal, and Chicago isn't running the same offense as Denver. But I find it hard to believe that Cutler's #1 receiver won't have AT LEAST 1000 yards.

Last year was only Hester's 2nd year playing WR, and he showed nice improvement from the year before. I expect to see him make a huge jump this year with Cutler at QB.

2009 Projections:

80 Catches

1200 Yards

7 TDs

Now, what I really don't understand, is Hester's dynasty ranking. How does a 26 year old WR who is still just learning the position, ranked 39th in redrafts, but 49th in dynasty leagues? The Bears don't have a first round pick next year, so it isn't going to be easy for them to aquire a top WR. And I just don't see how anyone can have him ranked behind players like Deion Branch in dynasty leagues.

While I agree with your overall thoughts about Hester, I don't think he's as much of a lock for 1000 yds as you think. Last year, there were only 17 teams that had a 1000 yd WR. Two teams had 2 (Driver/Jennings and Moss/Welker) and one had 3 (Fitz/Boldin/Breaston). The flipside of this is that 15 teams did NOT have a 1000 yd WR. That's just about 1/2 the league.I'll also add that top QB's don't necessarily need 1000 yd WR's. Case in point--Drew Brees was the #1 overall QB in 2008 and didn't have a single 1000 yd WR. I know Colston missed time, but that's still staggering if you think about it. Rivers was #3 overall and his top WR was VJax with 1098. Barely made it. McNabb was #7 and didn't have one. Pennington was #10 and didn't have one. Garrard at 11th didn't have one. Eli at 13th and Favre at 14th didn't have one.

So, even if you think Cutler remains a top passing option, when you consider how involved Forte may again be in the passing game as well as Olsen and Bennett, then Hester is far from a lock for 1000 yds.

 

[RJS113]

First of all, I just want to point out that I do not own Hester in any leagues, so this post is completely unbiased.

Hester is currently ranked as the 39th receiver in redrafts. He is the Bears #1 receiver, and has received a huge upgrade at QB. Cutler's top two WRs last year combined for 195 catches, 2245 yards, and 11 TDs. I know Hester isn't as talented of a WR as Marshall or Royal, and Chicago isn't running the same offense as Denver. But I find it hard to believe that Cutler's #1 receiver won't have AT LEAST 1000 yards.

Last year was only Hester's 2nd year playing WR, and he showed nice improvement from the year before. I expect to see him make a huge jump this year with Cutler at QB.

2009 Projections:

80 Catches

1200 Yards

7 TDs

Now, what I really don't understand, is Hester's dynasty ranking. How does a 26 year old WR who is still just learning the position, ranked 39th in redrafts, but 49th in dynasty leagues? The Bears don't have a first round pick next year, so it isn't going to be easy for them to aquire a top WR. And I just don't see how anyone can have him ranked behind players like Deion Branch in dynasty leagues.

While I agree with your overall thoughts about Hester, I don't think he's as much of a lock for 1000 yds as you think. Last year, there were only 17 teams that had a 1000 yd WR. Two teams had 2 (Driver/Jennings and Moss/Welker) and one had 3 (Fitz/Boldin/Breaston). The flipside of this is that 15 teams did NOT have a 1000 yd WR. That's just about 1/2 the league.I'll also add that top QB's don't necessarily need 1000 yd WR's. Case in point--Drew Brees was the #1 overall QB in 2008 and didn't have a single 1000 yd WR. I know Colston missed time, but that's still staggering if you think about it. Rivers was #3 overall and his top WR was VJax with 1098. Barely made it. McNabb was #7 and didn't have one. Pennington was #10 and didn't have one. Garrard at 11th didn't have one. Eli at 13th and Favre at 14th didn't have one.

So, even if you think Cutler remains a top passing option, when you consider how involved Forte may again be in the passing game as well as Olsen and Bennett, then Hester is far from a lock for 1000 yds.

Thank you very much for the reply.While is doesn't change my feelings of Hester having a breakout year, it's posts like this that make the Shark Pool great.

 

[MAC_32]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.

Just sayin.

 

[RJS113]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.Just sayin.

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

 

[Couch Potato]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.

That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

 

[MAC_32]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.Just sayin.

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

I don't think the scheme's going to change as much as many believe it will. They're still going to win games pounding the ball, playing tough defense, and winning the field position battle. Cutler's an upgrade at the position for sure, but I'm not seeing the aerial assault it seems many expect. I think Cutler will be better if he's not asked to do as much as he was asked to do in Denver.

 

[Da Guru]

Hester and Roberto Duran have something in common. That is why the ranking is low.

 

[RJS113]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

Also, let's say his receptions increase by 1 per game. That would put his numbers at 67 catches for 1005 yards.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.Just sayin.

How many TDs did Berrian have in '06?

 

[MAC_32]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.Just sayin.

How many TDs did Berrian have in '06?

Oops, it was 6 TD's, not 5, my bad.

 

[Couch Potato]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.Just sayin.

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

I don't think the scheme's going to change as much as many believe it will. They're still going to win games pounding the ball, playing tough defense, and winning the field position battle. Cutler's an upgrade at the position for sure, but I'm not seeing the aerial assault it seems many expect. I think Cutler will be better if he's not asked to do as much as he was asked to do in Denver.

To me, it's not so much a scheme change but arm strength. Hester is one of the fastest guys in the league and Orton could not take advantage of that. I remember 4 specific instances last year where Hester had his man badly beaten deep, but the pass couldn't get there so Hester had to slow up and wait for the ball. In two of those instances he drew interference calls and in the other two the plays were broken up. I'm pretty confident Cutler would have been able to get those balls to him. Hester should be good for a few nice bombs this year where he just outruns the DB and Cutler lets it fly.

 

[MAC_32]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.Just sayin.

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

I don't think the scheme's going to change as much as many believe it will. They're still going to win games pounding the ball, playing tough defense, and winning the field position battle. Cutler's an upgrade at the position for sure, but I'm not seeing the aerial assault it seems many expect. I think Cutler will be better if he's not asked to do as much as he was asked to do in Denver.

To me, it's not so much a scheme change but arm strength. Hester is one of the fastest guys in the league and Orton could not take advantage of that. I remember 4 specific instances last year where Hester had his man badly beaten deep, but the pass couldn't get there so Hester had to slow up and wait for the ball. In two of those instances he drew interference calls and in the other two the plays were broken up. I'm pretty confident Cutler would have been able to get those balls to him. Hester should be good for a few nice bombs this year where he just outruns the DB and Cutler lets it fly.

I've also seen instances in which Hester has his man beat by 20 yards, had the ball thrown on the money, and the ball just ricochets off some part of his body. He's an elite athlete, but I don't think Chicago's reasonable if they expect him to be their long term #1, I don't think Hester has what it takes mentally to take on that role and sustain it.

 

[Instinctive]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.

Just sayin.

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

I don't think the scheme's going to change as much as many believe it will. They're still going to win games pounding the ball, playing tough defense, and winning the field position battle. Cutler's an upgrade at the position for sure, but I'm not seeing the aerial assault it seems many expect. I think Cutler will be better if he's not asked to do as much as he was asked to do in Denver.

To me, it's not so much a scheme change but arm strength. Hester is one of the fastest guys in the league and Orton could not take advantage of that. I remember 4 specific instances last year where Hester had his man badly beaten deep, but the pass couldn't get there so Hester had to slow up and wait for the ball. In two of those instances he drew interference calls and in the other two the plays were broken up. I'm pretty confident Cutler would have been able to get those balls to him. Hester should be good for a few nice bombs this year where he just outruns the DB and Cutler lets it fly.

I've also seen instances in which Hester has his man beat by 20 yards, had the ball thrown on the money, and the ball just ricochets off some part of his body. He's an elite athlete, but I don't think Chicago's reasonable if they expect him to be their long term #1, I don't think Hester has what it takes mentally to take on that role and sustain it.

Isn't the bolded portion exactly what people said about one Steve Smith going into his 3rd year as a receiver after being a very dynamic kick/punt returner?

 

[EBF]

I've been beating this drum for a while. If his name wasn't Devin Hester and people didn't already know him as a great return man, he'd be a more common sleeper pick because he fits the third year breakout mold perfectly (2009 will be his fourth season, but only his third as a WR and his second as a starter on offense). He's an elite athlete, he was a second round draft pick, his statistics have improved every season, and he has a clear opportunity to emerge as the top receiver for his team.

At the very least, I think you can expect him to put up the kind of numbers Berrian did for Chicago in 2007. His ceiling is quite a bit higher than that. The only thing that will stop him from exceeding expectations is if one of Iglesias/Bennett ends up being much better than expected or if Chicago makes a move for Burress/Boldin/Braylon/Marshall. I don't have much faith in Iglesias/Bennett and I doubt the Bears will make a move for another veteran this late, so I think the stars are definitely aligning for Hester to put up a 900-1200 yard season in 2009.

 

[Jason Wood]

I certainly agree that Hester could be one of those 'where did THAT come from?' players; they happen every season. As one of the guys who does projections for the site, Hester is certainly on the short list of 'low confidence' projections for me. I personally think, Cutler or not, Chicago isn't likely to have a 1,000-yard receiver. It's not just about Cutler, it's about the conditions of Soldier Field, the conservative nature of Ron Turner [who by the way I expect will be replaced in the next year or two for a more Cutler-friendly OC], the conservative nature of Lovie, and the lack of what I perceive to be a true WR1.

On top of that, I believe Earl Bennett is the real sleeper. I would target him late in every redraft you can because I think he's actually got the skill set to be the Bears WR1, while Hester provides an explosive downfield option at WR2.

 

[boubucarow]

Hester was not lining up at wide receiver as much more than a gimmick until at least week 4 from what I recall.

In the 13 games at WR he accumulated 49 catches for 652 yards.

If you take expand that production rate to 16 games, he would have 60 catches for 802 yards.

Now, Kyle Orton through week 7 was 143-230-1,669-10-4 (62% complete 7.26 per attempt) while Hester had 18 catches (12% of team total) and 215 yards (13%).

For the rest of the season (9 games) Bears QB's were 161-297-1,560-8-10 (54% complete 5.25 per attempt) while Hester had 33 catches (20% of team total) and 450 yards (29%).

So, Devin Hester is in first full year learning WR spent the first half of the year being about 1/8 of the passing offense while he was maturing into his role. In the last 9 games of the season with extremely sub par QB play, Hester elevated to about 1/4 of the passing offense. If he pulled in 20% of the catches and 29% of the yards all year, he would have had about 60 catches for about 930 yards. In addition, there were multiple deep balls especially in the second half of the season when Hester created a ton of space and no Bear QB could get the ball to him. In the second half of the year, Devin Hester was performing like a Joey Galloway type #1 receiver who will catch 60-70 balls for 900-1100 yards.

The Bears threw 527 times last year for 3229 yards for a 6.13 ypa plus were sacked 29 times.

Let's say Cutler throws it 527 times at a 7.00 clip (he was 7.35 last year and Orton was 7.26 pre injury), that would result in 3,689 yards. While I think the Bears offense will be more proficient overall due to adding a better pass blocker in Pace and a quarterback with more pocket and pass rush awareness in Cutler not to mention a full year of an emerging Hester. But if like the second half of last year Hester is about 29% of the passing offense in yardage, that would result in 1070 receiving yards.

Personally, I think he will catch 60+ balls for 800+ yards as a non-injury floor. The question is his poor TD rate last year with only 3 touchdowns hurt by horrible passes the prevented a couple if not more long touchdown passes. At that floor of 800+ yards, 5 td catches would have him above WR33 last year. If Earl Bennett emerges or Plax is signed, it has been proven in the past by a pair of good to great wide receivers that neither player's production is hindered as much as the overall passing offense will improve to include them both. If he reaches 1,000 yards which I can easily see happening, he is looking at top 24 status last year with a 5 touchdown season.

Currently, FBG projects him as the #33 WR which I believe is the safe estimate. Barring injury, I think he will be approaching top 20 status for a fantasy wide receiver.

 

[boubucarow]

I certainly agree that Hester could be one of those 'where did THAT come from?' players; they happen every season. As one of the guys who does projections for the site, Hester is certainly on the short list of 'low confidence' projections for me. I personally think, Cutler or not, Chicago isn't likely to have a 1,000-yard receiver. It's not just about Cutler, it's about the conditions of Soldier Field, the conservative nature of Ron Turner [who by the way I expect will be replaced in the next year or two for a more Cutler-friendly OC], the conservative nature of Lovie, and the lack of what I perceive to be a true WR1. On top of that, I believe Earl Bennett is the real sleeper. I would target him late in every redraft you can because I think he's actually got the skill set to be the Bears WR1, while Hester provides an explosive downfield option at WR2.

If Bennett does emerge, that will increase the passing offense as a whole and not hurt Hester's numbers as the Joey Galloway type threat.Erik Kramer threw for 3,838 yards and 29 touchdowns with two thousand receivers in Curtis Conway and Jeff Graham who both average over 15 yards a catch. Why bring that up? Ron Turner was the Bears OC in 1995. Yes, you can look at his two stints and find a few horrible passing years but those years including a 38 year old Dave Kreig, Steve Walsh, Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, and Rex Grossman. He also had very little receiver talent to work with unless Tom Waddle screams go deep to you. Turner utilized the talents of a Curtis Conway when healthy and a Bernard Berrian. He will do so with Devin Hester and any other emerging receiver.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

So, do you really think Hester will put up more efficient numbers with Cutler than Marshall did with Cutler? Marshall was around 12-13 ypr and about 6.5% TDs in his two years with Cutler. You're projecting Hester to average 15 ypr and have a TD% of around 12%, almost double Marshall. Really?

 

[Jason Wood]

I certainly agree that Hester could be one of those 'where did THAT come from?' players; they happen every season. As one of the guys who does projections for the site, Hester is certainly on the short list of 'low confidence' projections for me. I personally think, Cutler or not, Chicago isn't likely to have a 1,000-yard receiver. It's not just about Cutler, it's about the conditions of Soldier Field, the conservative nature of Ron Turner [who by the way I expect will be replaced in the next year or two for a more Cutler-friendly OC], the conservative nature of Lovie, and the lack of what I perceive to be a true WR1. On top of that, I believe Earl Bennett is the real sleeper. I would target him late in every redraft you can because I think he's actually got the skill set to be the Bears WR1, while Hester provides an explosive downfield option at WR2.

If Bennett does emerge, that will increase the passing offense as a whole and not hurt Hester's numbers as the Joey Galloway type threat.Erik Kramer threw for 3,838 yards and 29 touchdowns with two thousand receivers in Curtis Conway and Jeff Graham who both average over 15 yards a catch. Why bring that up? Ron Turner was the Bears OC in 1995. Yes, you can look at his two stints and find a few horrible passing years but those years including a 38 year old Dave Kreig, Steve Walsh, Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, and Rex Grossman. He also had very little receiver talent to work with unless Tom Waddle screams go deep to you. Turner utilized the talents of a Curtis Conway when healthy and a Bernard Berrian. He will do so with Devin Hester and any other emerging receiver.

Fair points, and for the record I have the Bears throwing for 3,600 yards this year. Like I said, my Hester projection is low confidence. I'm going to be looking hard for cues about the pecking order and whether Bennett really is ready to be a clear cut, full-time option as I suspect. If neither he nor the rookies really explode onto the scene in camp, my view on Hester, by virtue of the targets he would see in that circumstance, is likely to improve.

 

[boubucarow]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

So, do you really think Hester will put up more efficient numbers with Cutler than Marshall did with Cutler? Marshall was around 12-13 ypr and about 6.5% TDs in his two years with Cutler. You're projecting Hester to average 15 ypr and have a TD% of around 12%, almost double Marshall. Really?

Hester's talents as a wide receiver are much different than Marshall. Hester will get some receptions in the flat but a lot of attempts to him will be 20+ yards down the field. Marshall could go deep as well but is much more of a possession receiver than Hester will ever be and therefore had and will have many more short yardage receptions.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

So, do you really think Hester will put up more efficient numbers with Cutler than Marshall did with Cutler? Marshall was around 12-13 ypr and about 6.5% TDs in his two years with Cutler. You're projecting Hester to average 15 ypr and have a TD% of around 12%, almost double Marshall. Really?

Hester's talents as a wide receiver are much different than Marshall. Hester will get some receptions in the flat but a lot of attempts to him will be 20+ yards down the field. Marshall could go deep as well but is much more of a possession receiver than Hester will ever be and therefore had and will have many more short yardage receptions.

OK, but how about any WR with Cutler? Did Denver not have any WR run 20+ yard routes?

 

[Darker Knight]

Just sayin

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

I don't think the scheme's going to change as much as many believe it will. They're still going to win games pounding the ball, playing tough defense, and winning the field position battle. Cutler's an upgrade at the position for sure, but I'm not seeing the aerial assault it seems many expect. I think Cutler will be better if he's not asked to do as much as he was asked to do in Denver.

To me, it's not so much a scheme change but arm strength. Hester is one of the fastest guys in the league and Orton could not take advantage of that. I remember 4 specific instances last year where Hester had his man badly beaten deep, but the pass couldn't get there so Hester had to slow up and wait for the ball. In two of those instances he drew interference calls and in the other two the plays were broken up. I'm pretty confident Cutler would have been able to get those balls to him. Hester should be good for a few nice bombs this year where he just outruns the DB and Cutler lets it fly.

I've also seen instances in which Hester has his man beat by 20 yards, had the ball thrown on the money, and the ball just ricochets off some part of his body. He's an elite athlete, but I don't think Chicago's reasonable if they expect him to be their long term #1, I don't think Hester has what it takes mentally to take on that role and sustain it.

Isn't the bolded portion exactly what people said about one Steve Smith going into his 3rd year as a receiver after being a very dynamic kick/punt returner?

I don't think so.....Smith played WR in college and had a very good 2nd year catching the ball. Hester was a CB/KR in college and came into the league as the same...he was not very good at CB so they switched him over to WR....he is not a very good WR either...he is fast but that does not make you a good WR...I don't see Smith and Hester as at all similar......

 

[boubucarow]

Just sayin

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

I don't think the scheme's going to change as much as many believe it will. They're still going to win games pounding the ball, playing tough defense, and winning the field position battle. Cutler's an upgrade at the position for sure, but I'm not seeing the aerial assault it seems many expect. I think Cutler will be better if he's not asked to do as much as he was asked to do in Denver.

To me, it's not so much a scheme change but arm strength. Hester is one of the fastest guys in the league and Orton could not take advantage of that. I remember 4 specific instances last year where Hester had his man badly beaten deep, but the pass couldn't get there so Hester had to slow up and wait for the ball. In two of those instances he drew interference calls and in the other two the plays were broken up. I'm pretty confident Cutler would have been able to get those balls to him. Hester should be good for a few nice bombs this year where he just outruns the DB and Cutler lets it fly.

I've also seen instances in which Hester has his man beat by 20 yards, had the ball thrown on the money, and the ball just ricochets off some part of his body. He's an elite athlete, but I don't think Chicago's reasonable if they expect him to be their long term #1, I don't think Hester has what it takes mentally to take on that role and sustain it.

Isn't the bolded portion exactly what people said about one Steve Smith going into his 3rd year as a receiver after being a very dynamic kick/punt returner?

I don't think so.....Smith played WR in college and had a very good 2nd year catching the ball. Hester was a CB/KR in college and came into the league as the same...he was not very good at CB so they switched him over to WR....he is not a very good WR either...he is fast but that does not make you a good WR...I don't see Smith and Hester as at all similar......

Hester is not Steve Smith and never will be. Hester does not have Steve Smith's toughness and that will prevent him from dominating games in the same manner. He can be a very good deep threat who can take 60 catches and make them 1000 yards but I don't feel he will ever be a 90 catch guy or a MVP type candidate like Steve Smith was at his height.

 

[gianmarco]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

So, do you really think Hester will put up more efficient numbers with Cutler than Marshall did with Cutler? Marshall was around 12-13 ypr and about 6.5% TDs in his two years with Cutler. You're projecting Hester to average 15 ypr and have a TD% of around 12%, almost double Marshall. Really?

There are LOTS of WR's who had a higher ypr than Marshall and a higher TD %. Doesn't mean they are all better than Marshall. YPR != WR talent.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

So, do you really think Hester will put up more efficient numbers with Cutler than Marshall did with Cutler? Marshall was around 12-13 ypr and about 6.5% TDs in his two years with Cutler. You're projecting Hester to average 15 ypr and have a TD% of around 12%, almost double Marshall. Really?

There are LOTS of WR's who had a higher ypr than Marshall and a higher TD %. Doesn't mean they are all better than Marshall. YPR != WR talent.

But there weren't any WRs on Denver who put up 15 ypr and 12% TD% with Cutler. I'm just wondering who was on the receiving end of those accurate deep balls Cutler seems to be able to throw, the ones that Hester is going to catch.

 

[MAC_32]

I've also seen instances in which Hester has his man beat by 20 yards, had the ball thrown on the money, and the ball just ricochets off some part of his body. He's an elite athlete, but I don't think Chicago's reasonable if they expect him to be their long term #1, I don't think Hester has what it takes mentally to take on that role and sustain it.

Isn't the bolded portion exactly what people said about one Steve Smith going into his 3rd year as a receiver after being a very dynamic kick/punt returner?

I won't speak for others, but I never questioned Steve Smith's mental makeup in transitioning to WR.

 

[CaptainHook]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

So, do you really think Hester will put up more efficient numbers with Cutler than Marshall did with Cutler? Marshall was around 12-13 ypr and about 6.5% TDs in his two years with Cutler. You're projecting Hester to average 15 ypr and have a TD% of around 12%, almost double Marshall. Really?

There are LOTS of WR's who had a higher ypr than Marshall and a higher TD %. Doesn't mean they are all better than Marshall. YPR != WR talent.

But there weren't any WRs on Denver who put up 15 ypr and 12% TD% with Cutler. I'm just wondering who was on the receiving end of those accurate deep balls Cutler seems to be able to throw, the ones that Hester is going to catch.

When your only skill is running faster than people it is probably not crazy to expect atypical ypr and td% numbers

 

[5-ish Finkle]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.Just sayin.

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

It's totally relevant. He may have a new QB, but he still has the same risk-averse HC and offensive coordinator. Does anyone think Ron Turner is suddenly going to turn into Don Coryell? Me either.Hester will certainly benefit from having a better QB with a stronger arm. That said, I'll believe he's cracking 1,200 yards and 8 TDs when he does it.

 

[switz]

I've been beating this drum for a while. If his name wasn't Devin Hester and people didn't already know him as a great return man, he'd be a more common sleeper pick because he fits the third year breakout mold perfectly (2009 will be his fourth season, but only his third as a WR and his second as a starter on offense). He's an elite athlete, he was a second round draft pick, his statistics have improved every season, and he has a clear opportunity to emerge as the top receiver for his team.

The problem is that those players actually played WR in college too... they know how to run routes, they know how to handle the press etc. Now maybe they have to improve in those areas, but they aren't starting at square one. Hester has to learn all those things, and quite frankly he's not good at any of them yet. He's got speed and moves, and will make big plays if the team uses him right, but to expect him to be a solid #1 WR is ridiculous. Name one team that actually put their top corner on Hester... none did it.

 

[boubucarow]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

So, do you really think Hester will put up more efficient numbers with Cutler than Marshall did with Cutler? Marshall was around 12-13 ypr and about 6.5% TDs in his two years with Cutler. You're projecting Hester to average 15 ypr and have a TD% of around 12%, almost double Marshall. Really?

Hester's talents as a wide receiver are much different than Marshall. Hester will get some receptions in the flat but a lot of attempts to him will be 20+ yards down the field. Marshall could go deep as well but is much more of a possession receiver than Hester will ever be and therefore had and will have many more short yardage receptions.

OK, but how about any WR with Cutler? Did Denver not have any WR run 20+ yard routes?All stats from CNNSI.

Well...Marshall was targeted 29 times and caught 7 20+ throws. So, 16% of his 181 targets were 20+ yard throws.Royal was targeted 18 times and caught 4. So, 14% of his 129 targets were 20+ yard throws.Scheffler was targeted 13 times and caught 7. So, 21% of his 61 targets were 20+ yard throws.Hester was targeted 20 times and caught 5 20+ throws. So, 22% of his 91 targets were 20+ yard throws.Cutler was 25 for 75 in 20+ yard throws.Orton was 15 for 59 in 20+ yard throws.Grossman was 1 for 9 in 20+ yard throws.My take is that Devin Hester will be targeted deep about 20% of the time. Last year, his QB's only could complete 24% of deep throws but Hester caught 25% of deep targets. As a Bronco, Cutler completed 33% of his deep throws even though his top two wide receivers caught only 23% of their deep targets. Hester was credited with 60 targets in the last 8 games last year when he was "figuring" out being a wide receveir. Let's assume he gets about 120 targets this year. At 20%, that means he will have about 24 deep targets and if Cutler/Hester can achieve a 25-30% success rate, Hester will 6 or 7 long receptions. His catch rate of 50% in the 2nd half last year would end up around 60 receptions but with a better QB, I would bump his catch rate up to say 55%. That would be 66 receptions with say 6 long balls. Last year, he average 11 yards per catch on balls thrown less than 20 yards. So, take those 60 receptions under 20 yards and give him 660 yards. Now, on deep balls he average 31.8 yards per reception. So, 6 deep balls would result in 190.8 yards.Add it together and Hester would have 66 receptions for 850 yards. Now I did adjust his catch rates due to Cutler presence but did not adjust for Hester's growth as a wide receiver.

 

[Darker Knight]

Hester sucks as a #1 WR HTH TIA

 

[switz]

Cutler was 25 for 75 in 20+ yard throws.Orton was 15 for 59 in 20+ yard throws.Grossman was 1 for 9 in 20+ yard throws.

Interesting stats... Cutler 33% on 20+ yard throwsOrton 25% on 20+ yard throwsGrossman 11% on 20+ yard throwsYet people still argue Grossman had a better arm than Orton? ... anywayAs far as how this relates to Cutler and Hester... Orton completed 10 of 39 20+ yard passes throwing to "other" WRs, also 25%, so we can estimate that Hester should see the full benefit of the uptick in 20+ yard accuracy. That means if Hester is targeted 20 times again on 20+ yard throws, he'll catch a whopping 1 more 20+ yard pass (33% on 20 passes is 6.3333).

 

[boubucarow]

Cutler was 25 for 75 in 20+ yard throws.Orton was 15 for 59 in 20+ yard throws.Grossman was 1 for 9 in 20+ yard throws.

Interesting stats... Cutler 33% on 20+ yard throwsOrton 25% on 20+ yard throwsGrossman 11% on 20+ yard throwsYet people still argue Grossman had a better arm than Orton? ... anywayAs far as how this relates to Cutler and Hester... Orton completed 10 of 39 20+ yard passes throwing to "other" WRs, also 25%, so we can estimate that Hester should see the full benefit of the uptick in 20+ yard accuracy. That means if Hester is targeted 20 times again on 20+ yard throws, he'll catch a whopping 1 more 20+ yard pass (33% on 20 passes is 6.3333).

He only played full time wide receiver about 13 games, his quarterbacks were inefficient on deep throws including at least 3 pass interference calls on underthrown balls to a wide open Hester. It will only most likely result in a 1-3 catch increase on deep balls which would be 30-100+ extra yards for Hester.In the end, I have Hester as a WR3 in non-ppr 12 team leagues. I don't see him becoming an upper echelon receiver but I don't see how he doesn't get 800 yards if he and Cutler remain healthy. I think he will be around an inconsistent 1000 yards in the end and then his touchdowns will determine his final value.

 

[KenM746003]

I'm a Bears fan and have Hester on my fantasy team, but I do not see him over 1000 yards unles another WR steps up.

You can look at all the stats you want, but if you watch him play, Hester was pretty erratic, to say the least. He's like that hyper, fast kid who can't catch. Based on the "eye test" I really don't see him becoming an elite WR. At best he could be a good #2 to stretch the defense. But if the Bears do not have any other threat, do you really think that defenses will let Hester beat them deep? No way. He will still get his occasional deep pass and maybe a slant that turns into a big gain, but it is a scary thought to have to rely on him.

Not saying he is not going to improve (he was looking a little smoother by the end of the year), but his hands are nothing to write home about.

I see maybe 60/850/5.

 

[The Moz]

If Chicago indeed gets Plax -- I can see Hester getting Deep a few times or being great out of the slot with bennett working at the #2.

 

[EBF]

I've been beating this drum for a while. If his name wasn't Devin Hester and people didn't already know him as a great return man, he'd be a more common sleeper pick because he fits the third year breakout mold perfectly (2009 will be his fourth season, but only his third as a WR and his second as a starter on offense). He's an elite athlete, he was a second round draft pick, his statistics have improved every season, and he has a clear opportunity to emerge as the top receiver for his team.

The problem is that those players actually played WR in college too... they know how to run routes, they know how to handle the press etc. Now maybe they have to improve in those areas, but they aren't starting at square one. Hester has to learn all those things, and quite frankly he's not good at any of them yet. He's got speed and moves, and will make big plays if the team uses him right, but to expect him to be a solid #1 WR is ridiculous. Name one team that actually put their top corner on Hester... none did it.

Hester isn't starting at square one. He has played WR for the last two years. Over the second half of the 2008 season, he had 30 catches for 408 yards. That would equate to 60 catches for 816 yards over a full season. Factor in another year of experience and a vastly superior QB, and it's not a stretch to think he could go for 60-70 catches and 900-1200 yards in 2009.When I'm looking for WR sleepers, I look for players who have a compelling combination of talent and opportunity. Hester is a pretty talented player and he has an easy path to become the top WR on his team. I think he's a good bet to exceed expectations. The only thing that will change my mind is if Chicago acquires a proven WR1 like Burress before the season starts.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

If we assume Hester just keeps last year's catch total (he played 15 games by the way), but increases his YPC from 13.0 with Orton to 15.0 with Cutler, and doubles his TDs from 3 to 6, we get 10+18=28 more FP for a total of 119 (non-PPR). The 119 FP would move him from WR44 to WR28 on last year's final WR list.That would be a stat line of 51-765-6, plus his rushing numbers of 6-61-0.

So, do you really think Hester will put up more efficient numbers with Cutler than Marshall did with Cutler? Marshall was around 12-13 ypr and about 6.5% TDs in his two years with Cutler. You're projecting Hester to average 15 ypr and have a TD% of around 12%, almost double Marshall. Really?

Hester's talents as a wide receiver are much different than Marshall. Hester will get some receptions in the flat but a lot of attempts to him will be 20+ yards down the field. Marshall could go deep as well but is much more of a possession receiver than Hester will ever be and therefore had and will have many more short yardage receptions.

OK, but how about any WR with Cutler? Did Denver not have any WR run 20+ yard routes?All stats from CNNSI.

Well...Marshall was targeted 29 times and caught 7 20+ throws. So, 16% of his 181 targets were 20+ yard throws.Royal was targeted 18 times and caught 4. So, 14% of his 129 targets were 20+ yard throws.Scheffler was targeted 13 times and caught 7. So, 21% of his 61 targets were 20+ yard throws.Hester was targeted 20 times and caught 5 20+ throws. So, 22% of his 91 targets were 20+ yard throws.Cutler was 25 for 75 in 20+ yard throws.Orton was 15 for 59 in 20+ yard throws.Grossman was 1 for 9 in 20+ yard throws.My take is that Devin Hester will be targeted deep about 20% of the time. Last year, his QB's only could complete 24% of deep throws but Hester caught 25% of deep targets. As a Bronco, Cutler completed 33% of his deep throws even though his top two wide receivers caught only 23% of their deep targets. Hester was credited with 60 targets in the last 8 games last year when he was "figuring" out being a wide receveir. Let's assume he gets about 120 targets this year. At 20%, that means he will have about 24 deep targets and if Cutler/Hester can achieve a 25-30% success rate, Hester will 6 or 7 long receptions. His catch rate of 50% in the 2nd half last year would end up around 60 receptions but with a better QB, I would bump his catch rate up to say 55%. That would be 66 receptions with say 6 long balls. Last year, he average 11 yards per catch on balls thrown less than 20 yards. So, take those 60 receptions under 20 yards and give him 660 yards. Now, on deep balls he average 31.8 yards per reception. So, 6 deep balls would result in 190.8 yards.Add it together and Hester would have 66 receptions for 850 yards. Now I did adjust his catch rates due to Cutler presence but did not adjust for Hester's growth as a wide receiver.

I'm not sure that including Scheffler's (or any non-WR's stats) is relevant when evaluating Hester. If you just look at the rates of the top 4 targeted WRs on each team:

Comp   Target   Rate  Marshall	   7	  29	 24% Royal		  4	  18	 22% Stokley		1	   4	 25% Gaffney		2	   7	 29%  Total		 14	  58	 24%   Hester		 5	  20	 25% Davis		  1	   7	 14% Lloyd		  4	  12	 33% Booker		 2	  15	 13%  Total		 12	  54	 22%

I don't see a significant difference. There is certainly nothing in the stats to make you assume he'll be any more successful with Cutler or any more successful than the Denver WRs were last year. In addition, if you look at passes over 30 yards, the rates are identical. Denver WRs caught 2-24 and Chicago WRs caught 1-12 (with Hester being 1-6 and Marshall being 1-12).

 

[Adebisi]

Hester sucks as a #1 WR HTH TIA

 

[baconisgood]

1200 yards and 7 TDs for Hester would be unbelievable (and by that I mean I wouldn't believe it even if I saw it). Players who broke 1200 yards receiving last year?

AJ, Ftiz, Roddy, Calvin, Steve Smith (Car-lol), Jennings, Marshall, Bryant.

8 Receivers in the NFL. The only guy on that list who compares to Hester in the slightest is Jennings- and Jennings is a much more polished receiver and is stronger than Hester. Where are the pure burners on this list? There aren't any- being a 1200 yard receiver means being the primary target which means running precise routs or having a big body and a big catch radius (really both).

Joey Galloway has 1 (uno) 1200+ yard season in his career- Hester is a long way away from being in Joey Galloway's class as a receiver.

I think a projection of 900 and 5 is pretty safe with a 20% chance of him breaking out and having a 1000 yard 7 TD season.

 

[switz]

The problem is that those players actually played WR in college too... they know how to run routes, they know how to handle the press etc. Now maybe they have to improve in those areas, but they aren't starting at square one. Hester has to learn all those things, and quite frankly he's not good at any of them yet. He's got speed and moves, and will make big plays if the team uses him right, but to expect him to be a solid #1 WR is ridiculous. Name one team that actually put their top corner on Hester... none did it.

Hester isn't starting at square one. He has played WR for the last two years. Over the second half of the 2008 season, he had 30 catches for 408 yards. That would equate to 60 catches for 816 yards over a full season. Factor in another year of experience and a vastly superior QB, and it's not a stretch to think he could go for 60-70 catches and 900-1200 yards in 2009.

Hester simply isn't the same as another third year WR, because this is his third year EVER as WR, not just his third year in the NFL. The kid is still learning to play WR, not how to play WR at an NFL level. Huge difference.College WRs come in here having learned routes, though they may need to improve. Hester isn't even asked to run routes in most cases.

 

[benbadman]

Hester could be great trade bait in fantasy terms. Grab him in round 8 through 11, then after he has a big game against Seattle in Week 3 you package him with another player for an upgrade.

When you draft Hester, pay attention to your fellow owners and how they react, "ah crap I wanted him"--then target this owner after Hester has that 10+ point game early in the season. "Hester just had his breakout game, he's going to be a top 15 WR from here out buddy" then boom you upgrade your QB or RB position. That's how you package 8th and 12th round players and get a 5-6th round fantasy player.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I think Hester's biggest obstacles to a 1000 yard season are the depth at WR behind him and his value as a returner.

Unless Hester can outperform the other WR's on the roster by a good margin, I think the coaching staff will want to get more bang for their buck by saving him for the return game. He was a game-changing force as a returner...as a WR...not so much.

I think he's kind of an experiment at WR that will run its course in a season or so...are as soon as another WR one the roster is ready to take over.

 

[TaxMan]

I think Hester's biggest obstacles to a 1000 yard season are the depth at WR behind him and his value as a returner.Unless Hester can outperform the other WR's on the roster by a good margin, I think the coaching staff will want to get more bang for their buck by saving him for the return game. He was a game-changing force as a returner...as a WR...not so much.I think he's kind of an experiment at WR that will run its course in a season or so...are as soon as another WR one the roster is ready to take over.

you must have missed this:Rotoworld) Devin Hester could reportedly take fewer punt returns this season. Analysis: He's not going to return kicks, similar to the end of last season. Bears coordinator Ron Turner says Hester is an "every-down receiver" and the team is clearly focusing on his receiving skills, versus his return skills. With Jay Cutler's deep arm on his side, we think Hester is a solid WR3 who has been undervalued in early drafts.

 

[Darker Knight]

I think Hester's biggest obstacles to a 1000 yard season are the depth at WR behind him and his value as a returner.Unless Hester can outperform the other WR's on the roster by a good margin, I think the coaching staff will want to get more bang for their buck by saving him for the return game. He was a game-changing force as a returner...as a WR...not so much.I think he's kind of an experiment at WR that will run its course in a season or so...are as soon as another WR one the roster is ready to take over.

you must have missed this:Rotoworld) Devin Hester could reportedly take fewer punt returns this season. Analysis: He's not going to return kicks, similar to the end of last season. Bears coordinator Ron Turner says Hester is an "every-down receiver" and the team is clearly focusing on his receiving skills, versus his return skills. With Jay Cutler's deep arm on his side, we think Hester is a solid WR3 who has been undervalued in early drafts.

you must have missed this:

Hester sucks as a #1 WR HTH TIA

 

[Manster]

No Chicago Bear under Lovie Smith has ever had > 1000 rec yds or > 5 rec TD's.Just sayin.

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

I don't think the scheme's going to change as much as many believe it will. They're still going to win games pounding the ball, playing tough defense, and winning the field position battle. Cutler's an upgrade at the position for sure, but I'm not seeing the aerial assault it seems many expect. I think Cutler will be better if he's not asked to do as much as he was asked to do in Denver.

To me, it's not so much a scheme change but arm strength. Hester is one of the fastest guys in the league and Orton could not take advantage of that. I remember 4 specific instances last year where Hester had his man badly beaten deep, but the pass couldn't get there so Hester had to slow up and wait for the ball. In two of those instances he drew interference calls and in the other two the plays were broken up. I'm pretty confident Cutler would have been able to get those balls to him. Hester should be good for a few nice bombs this year where he just outruns the DB and Cutler lets it fly.

one things for sure, Cutler to Hester COULD be deadly. Hester has special talent with his speed and ability to run with the ball. you know the Bears will get the ball in his hands.it's gonna be interesting to watch the Bears this yr. i'd say 65 rec. 1000 yds and 5 tds is reasonable, with much upside. i could also see a couple of rushing tds from reverses or something similar.