Devin Hester (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

The problem is that those players actually played WR in college too... they know how to run routes, they know how to handle the press etc. Now maybe they have to improve in those areas, but they aren't starting at square one. Hester has to learn all those things, and quite frankly he's not good at any of them yet. He's got speed and moves, and will make big plays if the team uses him right, but to expect him to be a solid #1 WR is ridiculous. Name one team that actually put their top corner on Hester... none did it.

Hester isn't starting at square one. He has played WR for the last two years. Over the second half of the 2008 season, he had 30 catches for 408 yards. That would equate to 60 catches for 816 yards over a full season. Factor in another year of experience and a vastly superior QB, and it's not a stretch to think he could go for 60-70 catches and 900-1200 yards in 2009.

Hester simply isn't the same as another third year WR, because this is his third year EVER as WR, not just his third year in the NFL. The kid is still learning to play WR, not how to play WR at an NFL level. Huge difference.College WRs come in here having learned routes, though they may need to improve. Hester isn't even asked to run routes in most cases.

Sounds like a heap of BS to me. How long do you really think it takes for a WR to learn how to run routes? It's really not that complicated. We've seen people like Drew Bennett, Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El, Matt Jones, and Antonio Gates reach a high level of proficiency with less experience than Hester. Add in the fact that he already showed signs of being a productive WR and I don't put one ounce of stock into the idea that he hasn't learned how to run routes.

 

[Couch Potato]

The problem is that those players actually played WR in college too... they know how to run routes, they know how to handle the press etc. Now maybe they have to improve in those areas, but they aren't starting at square one. Hester has to learn all those things, and quite frankly he's not good at any of them yet. He's got speed and moves, and will make big plays if the team uses him right, but to expect him to be a solid #1 WR is ridiculous. Name one team that actually put their top corner on Hester... none did it.

Hester isn't starting at square one. He has played WR for the last two years. Over the second half of the 2008 season, he had 30 catches for 408 yards. That would equate to 60 catches for 816 yards over a full season. Factor in another year of experience and a vastly superior QB, and it's not a stretch to think he could go for 60-70 catches and 900-1200 yards in 2009.

Hester simply isn't the same as another third year WR, because this is his third year EVER as WR, not just his third year in the NFL. The kid is still learning to play WR, not how to play WR at an NFL level. Huge difference.College WRs come in here having learned routes, though they may need to improve. Hester isn't even asked to run routes in most cases.

Sounds like a heap of BS to me. How long do you really think it takes for a WR to learn how to run routes? It's really not that complicated. We've seen people like Drew Bennett, Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El, Matt Jones, and Antonio Gates reach a high level of proficiency with less experience than Hester. Add in the fact that he already showed signs of being a productive WR and I don't put one ounce of stock into the idea that he hasn't learned how to run routes.

The switz posts in this thread are annoying and make no sense. Hester had 51 catches last year, was clearly improved over the year before in terms of route running, the HC and GM have repeatedly praised his progress etc.etc.etc. Yet guys like switz get some doofy notion in their heads that none of that means anything (or more likely haven't bothered to learn any of it), and post that college days 4 years ago mean everything. I guess it's why I generally skip over his posts in most threads.

 

[kremenull]

The problem is that those players actually played WR in college too... they know how to run routes, they know how to handle the press etc. Now maybe they have to improve in those areas, but they aren't starting at square one. Hester has to learn all those things, and quite frankly he's not good at any of them yet. He's got speed and moves, and will make big plays if the team uses him right, but to expect him to be a solid #1 WR is ridiculous. Name one team that actually put their top corner on Hester... none did it.

Hester isn't starting at square one. He has played WR for the last two years. Over the second half of the 2008 season, he had 30 catches for 408 yards. That would equate to 60 catches for 816 yards over a full season. Factor in another year of experience and a vastly superior QB, and it's not a stretch to think he could go for 60-70 catches and 900-1200 yards in 2009.

Hester simply isn't the same as another third year WR, because this is his third year EVER as WR, not just his third year in the NFL. The kid is still learning to play WR, not how to play WR at an NFL level. Huge difference.College WRs come in here having learned routes, though they may need to improve. Hester isn't even asked to run routes in most cases.

Sounds like a heap of BS to me. How long do you really think it takes for a WR to learn how to run routes? It's really not that complicated. We've seen people like Drew Bennett, Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El, Matt Jones, and Antonio Gates reach a high level of proficiency with less experience than Hester. Add in the fact that he already showed signs of being a productive WR and I don't put one ounce of stock into the idea that he hasn't learned how to run routes.

I agree with EBF on this one....For one, NFL route running is something that every WR has to learn, not just the guys who are switching positions. Guys in college aren't schooled very well on the science of route running, as most college WRs simply use their athleticism to get open and don't run precise routes. In the NFL, WRs must run precise routes. If it's 15 yard out, don't run 17 or it will be incomplete or intercepted. The timing is critical and the room for error is small.

Since Hester has learned from NFL WR coaches on how to run NFL routes, and has caught 50 balls in a season at the NFL level, he is ahead of any rookie entering the NFL, bar none, as far as learning curve (NFL WR learning curve).

Coaching at the NFL level, especially position coaches, is so superior to collegiate coaching it isn't even funny. Night and Day.

 

[switz]

The switz posts in this thread are annoying and make no sense. Hester had 51 catches last year, was clearly improved over the year before in terms of route running, the HC and GM have repeatedly praised his progress etc.etc.etc. Yet guys like switz get some doofy notion in their heads that none of that means anything (or more likely haven't bothered to learn any of it), and post that college days 4 years ago mean everything. I guess it's why I generally skip over his posts in most threads.

And your post was more valuable? Wow, Hester had 51 catches last season, really, that's like 3 per game! He's definitely WR #1 material now!!Clearly improved over the previous season in route running.. did you watch the games? Hester had two routes... slant and go, that's it. Half the time he wasn't even where he was supposed to be when the ball was thrown.

 

[EBF]

Yea, I can't say I disagree. Let's look at the objective factors here:

- Hester is an elite athlete.

- Hester has shown steady progress as a WR.

- Hester is running with the first team offense.

- Lovie Smith has been quoted in the past saying Hester can be an elite WR.

Yet we're to believe that he hasn't learned how to play WR and "isn't even asked to run routes in most cases." What do you think they do when they call plays for Hester? Tell him to get open any way he can? This isn't backyard football.

I appreciate your passion switz, but I think you sometimes decide to believe something and then rationalize the belief after the fact instead of weighing all the objective factors and believing in the most sensible conclusion. You decided that Hester can't play WR and now you're coming up with silly justifications for your opinion.

Maybe Hester will be a disappointment this season, but he certainly appears to have a compelling combination of talent and opportunity. I think it's a stretch to suggest that he's incapable of learning how to play WR just because he was a utility man earlier in his career. He has progressed nicely as a WR and I think he actually has good potential as a route runner due to his quickness and change of direction skills.

 

[Couch Potato]

The switz posts in this thread are annoying and make no sense. Hester had 51 catches last year, was clearly improved over the year before in terms of route running, the HC and GM have repeatedly praised his progress etc.etc.etc. Yet guys like switz get some doofy notion in their heads that none of that means anything (or more likely haven't bothered to learn any of it), and post that college days 4 years ago mean everything. I guess it's why I generally skip over his posts in most threads.

And your post was more valuable? Wow, Hester had 51 catches last season, really, that's like 3 per game! He's definitely WR #1 material now!!Clearly improved over the previous season in route running.. did you watch the games? Hester had two routes... slant and go, that's it. Half the time he wasn't even where he was supposed to be when the ball was thrown.

Just keep your head buried in the sand. Fine by me. You're simply wrong.

 

[switz]

Since Hester has learned from NFL WR coaches on how to run NFL routes, and has caught 50 balls in a season at the NFL level, he is ahead of any rookie entering the NFL, bar none, as far as learning curve (NFL WR learning curve).

I didn't argue he was on par with a rookie WR entering the NFL... I argued that he was not on par at three years as a third year WR who had played WR throughout college as well. Huge difference.Let's use the examples that EBF used...

Drew Bennett

Bennett played both QB and WR in college. In his EIGHT years in the league, he has never been a #1 WR. In 2004 however, he had 1,247 yards and 11 TDs. This was his 4th season. His magical third season was 32 receptions, 504 yards, and 4 TDs.

Hines Ward

In 99 Ward "broke out" with 61 catches and 7 TDs, and looked prime to be a great WR. Of course the following year (his third) he dropped to 48 catches and 4 TDs. Ward of course had the advantage of playing WR in college, as well as QB and RB. He played QB throughout high school. While Hester had 5 receptions his entire collegiate career, Ward had 55 in just one college season.

Antwaan Randle El

Randle El was a running college QB, an elite athlete, probably athletically the one most like Hester on this list. I believe he was the first QB to pass for 40 TDs and run for 40 TDs in a Division-I career? Anyway, in SEVEN years in the league he has never been a #1 WR. He also has never had 800 yards on a season, nor 70 catches. His BEST year was 51 catches for 728 yards and 1 TD. His magical third year was 43 catches, 601 yards and 3 TDs.

Matt Jones

Matt Jones played QB in college, thus was very familiar with WR routes. Still, in 4 years in the league, he never exceeded 800 yards, nor 70 catches. In fact, last season, his best, he had 65 catches for 761 yards. He never materialized as a bona fide #1 WR that he was drafted in the first round to become. His magical third season was 24 receptions, 317 yards, and 4 TDs.

Antonio Gates

Gates plays TE, a position very different than WR. Rarely is a TE split out wide and asked to run a route like a WR does. And typically a TE is covered by a LB, not a DB.

So, what's promising about this list? Hester is entering his 4th season in the NFL, but only his third with any WR playing time. Unlike the 4 WRs listed by EBF, Hester never played QB at any level, so it's unlikely he spent as much time studying routes as those players. Of those players, only 1 ever became a true #1 WR, that was Hines Ward, and he played a significant amount of time as WR in college.

The next best shot for hope is Drew Bennett, who had one solid season, but never materialized as a stud WR. Bennett also benefitted tremendously from having Derrick Mason playing opposite him, and Mason commanded the double coverage. Hester doesn't appear to have any complement at WR.

Otherwise you've got Matt Jones and Randle El, neither of who developed into superstar WRs.

Hester is most like Randle El, used primarily as a returner, and for gimmick plays. Randle El was at best a #3 WR, where he could face the oppositions weakest DB, and his speed could be exploited. Hester is likely in the same mold.

Could he turn into a Hines Ward? Certainly possible, but not too likely. Ward's game has always been tough catches across the middle, and great route running. Hester has depended on big plays to get any yards. They play the position completely different.

Could he become a guy who gets 6-700 yards a season, with 4-5 TDs? Yeah, probably. I think he'll have a few big games with Cutler at QB, where he gets past the secondary. But I think that's his ceiling - #2 WR at best, better off as the #3.

Just because I don't think a guy can transition into a STUD doesn't mean I have to hate the guy, or have a predefined opinion. I have no stock in whether Hester fails or succeeds.

 

[switz]

The switz posts in this thread are annoying and make no sense. Hester had 51 catches last year, was clearly improved over the year before in terms of route running, the HC and GM have repeatedly praised his progress etc.etc.etc. Yet guys like switz get some doofy notion in their heads that none of that means anything (or more likely haven't bothered to learn any of it), and post that college days 4 years ago mean everything. I guess it's why I generally skip over his posts in most threads.

And your post was more valuable? Wow, Hester had 51 catches last season, really, that's like 3 per game! He's definitely WR #1 material now!!

Clearly improved over the previous season in route running.. did you watch the games? Hester had two routes... slant and go, that's it. Half the time he wasn't even where he was supposed to be when the ball was thrown.

Just keep your head buried in the sand. Fine by me. You're simply wrong.

I love these absolutes... Could we let the 2009 season be played before we start proclaiming who was right and who was wrong about a player?

Do you know how many people told me I was wrong about Turner last year? Or Mendenhall? Or Barber?

Or over the course of time Edgerrin, LT, and Boldin?

We all get some right, we all get some wrong... but it's a pretty good idea to wait until the players play to start throwing mud.

 

[kremenull]

Switz, aside from Gates, none of those guys had a QB the caliber of Cutler....u think that just may make a bit of a difference for Hester? I'm cautiously optimistic about Hester this year, but I don't believe that he is behind any other 3rd year WRs....even the ones with 3 years of college experience. I believe he's work hard enough to neutralize any advantage that you speak of, perceived or real. Talent is the biggest thing now, not what you did as a teen.

Also, Randle-El, Bennet, and Ward aren't even in the same galaxy as Hester in terms of natural ability. A bette comparison would have been "Slash", Kordell Stewart. And I have very little doubt that Stewart could have been pretty much a Pro Bowl WR if he would have stayed the course at WR, instead of switching to QB full-time.

 

[switz]

Switz, aside from Gates, none of those guys had a QB the caliber of Cutler....u think that just may make a bit of a difference for Hester? I'm cautiously optimistic about Hester this year, but I don't believe that he is behind any other 3rd year WRs....even the ones with 3 years of college experience. I believe he's work hard enough to neutralize any advantage that you speak of, perceived or real. Talent is the biggest thing now, not what you did as a teen.Also, Randle-El, Bennet, and Ward aren't even in the same galaxy as Hester in terms of natural ability. A bette comparison would have been "Slash", Kordell Stewart. And I have very little doubt that Stewart could have been pretty much a Pro Bowl WR if he would have stayed the course at WR, instead of switching to QB full-time.

Perhaps... I agree on the QB thing, except for Ward, who has had Roeth, who is at least as good as Cutler.And I think you sell Randle El short by quite a bit. He was a 3-sport athlete in HS, 2-sport athlete in college, and was a standout in both sports. He broke records in football, had over 2500 yards every season he played. He and Hester are similarly sized as well, I think 5-10 and 190 for Randel El, and Hester is what 5-11, 195?

 

[KenM746003]

I'm with Switz on this one.

I'm not sure if everyone else thinks that Hester is going to be an elite WR. I really doubt it. I think you have to watch him play. You cannot just look at his numbers and assume he will progress. Also, just because his coach and GM are touting him - they tout EVERYBODY. What are they gonna do, dog him? They are the ones that put him at the #1 WR position - their asses are on the line.

I think he will be a WR3, maybe a WR2. Probably never a WR1, but nobody really knows that. There are plenty of elite athletes, a lot of whom are cannot even make NFL rosters. Hester's return skills have not translated to receiving skills. Even when he catches a ball in the flat (on a WR screen), he is just not as electric.

Maybe it will change with Cutler (I hope so). Then we can see if a QB makes a WR or if it is the other way around.

As I said earlier, if the Bears get a legit #1 WR (or develop one), then I think Hester is a definite WR3, and likely a WR2. But still not a WR1.

 

[EBF]

I don't think any of the Hester supporters have said he's destined to be a stud. He doesn't have to be a stud to capitalize on the great opportunity that he's been presented with this season. Even if he's only an average starting caliber NFL WR, he has a chance to exceed expectations. It's not rocket science. When you put a decent WR in a starting role with a competent QB, you have the potential for a solid season. Whether or not Hester is a long term stud is a different debate.

I think you missed the point of my Bennett/Randle El/Ward/etc examples. The point wasn't that those guys were studs. The point is that they were able to become effective NFL WRs despite having very limited collegiate experience. Experience at WR isn't nearly as important as you've made it out to be and the learning curve isn't nearly as steep as you've implied. You've basically said that Hester doesn't know how to play WR, but he performed quite well over the second half of last season and he's been running with the first team offense all offseason. The people who actually have their livelihood riding on the performance of the Chicago Bears football team feel comfortable with him as one of their starting WRs. To me that means more than the paper thin arguments you're spewing.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I appreciate your passion switz, but I think you sometimes decide to believe something and then rationalize the belief after the fact instead of weighing all the objective factors and believing in the most sensible conclusion.

c.f. - Jones-Drew, Maurice

 

[mdog1967]

Just sayin

Irrelevant, IMO. No Chicago WR under Lovie Smith has ever had Jay Cutler throwing to him. I do feel that he will make that big of a difference.

I don't think the scheme's going to change as much as many believe it will. They're still going to win games pounding the ball, playing tough defense, and winning the field position battle. Cutler's an upgrade at the position for sure, but I'm not seeing the aerial assault it seems many expect. I think Cutler will be better if he's not asked to do as much as he was asked to do in Denver.

To me, it's not so much a scheme change but arm strength. Hester is one of the fastest guys in the league and Orton could not take advantage of that. I remember 4 specific instances last year where Hester had his man badly beaten deep, but the pass couldn't get there so Hester had to slow up and wait for the ball. In two of those instances he drew interference calls and in the other two the plays were broken up. I'm pretty confident Cutler would have been able to get those balls to him. Hester should be good for a few nice bombs this year where he just outruns the DB and Cutler lets it fly.

I've also seen instances in which Hester has his man beat by 20 yards, had the ball thrown on the money, and the ball just ricochets off some part of his body. He's an elite athlete, but I don't think Chicago's reasonable if they expect him to be their long term #1, I don't think Hester has what it takes mentally to take on that role and sustain it.

Isn't the bolded portion exactly what people said about one Steve Smith going into his 3rd year as a receiver after being a very dynamic kick/punt returner?

I don't think so.....Smith played WR in college and had a very good 2nd year catching the ball. Hester was a CB/KR in college and came into the league as the same...he was not very good at CB so they switched him over to WR....he is not a very good WR either...he is fast but that does not make you a good WR...I don't see Smith and Hester as at all similar.....

.

Exactly why I also believe that for now the cautious approach to ranking Hester is the wise one.

 

[Instinctive]

Randle El was never the #1 WR on his team.

Matt Jones has always had drug problems, and consistent problems with either his QB or OL play to keep him from a good situation.

Hines Ward had a switch at QB, neither of which were stellar passers (Graham and Kordell) plus I believe Bobby Shaw was their #1 WR and they had Plaxico get like 30 catches that year?

Drew Bennett wasn't the #1 WR, Derrick Mason was.

POINT BEING: Hester is the #1 WR option for his team, and it can defintiely be argued he has a better QB situation and OL (to protect said QB) than any of those players.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'm very high on Hester and own him in a bunch of leagues.

I disagree that he won't be a good route runner, that can be learned if you're athletic enough and willing to work hard. But you can see when he's tracking the ball in the air that he's not a natural pass catcher and I don't think you can really do much about that at 25. So while I think he'll be a good WR for the Bears for the next several years, and should put up FF WR 25-30 #s, I think the talk of him as the next Steve Smith is overestimating his ability more than a little.

 

[fourd]

I don't think any of the Hester supporters have said he's destined to be a stud. He doesn't have to be a stud to capitalize on the great opportunity that he's been presented with this season. Even if he's only an average starting caliber NFL WR, he has a chance to exceed expectations. It's not rocket science. When you put a decent WR in a starting role with a competent QB, you have the potential for a solid season. Whether or not Hester is a long term stud is a different debate. I think you missed the point of my Bennett/Randle El/Ward/etc examples. The point wasn't that those guys were studs. The point is that they were able to become effective NFL WRs despite having very limited collegiate experience. Experience at WR isn't nearly as important as you've made it out to be and the learning curve isn't nearly as steep as you've implied. You've basically said that Hester doesn't know how to play WR, but he performed quite well over the second half of last season and he's been running with the first team offense all offseason. The people who actually have their livelihood riding on the performance of the Chicago Bears football team feel comfortable with him as one of their starting WRs. To me that means more than the paper thin arguments you're spewing.

They were also comfortable with Rex Grossman as their qb, absolute garbage at wr last year, and on and on. Because their livelihood depends on talent evaluation and putting players in position to succeed doesn't mean they get it right. It isn't rocket science - what makes Hester a decent wr? His ypc went down by a lot last year, he had 1 more td on 32 more catches than the prior year, and I don't see a second half of the season that was any different than the first half. Sure, Hester may have a breakout year, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Last 13 games (when he was healthy and starting)

49-652-13.3-3

Projected for 16 games that's 60-800-4

So even if you don't have him progressing at all and don't think Cutler is any better than Orton and don't think him going into the season as the clear-cut #1 will have any impact on his targets you have to have his floor at WR40 or so.

I think he progresses some, Cutler is a much better QB than Orton and that he'll see more targets per game as a result of his role.

72-1050-6

 

[Darker Knight]

I'm very high on Hester and own him in a bunch of leagues.

I disagree that he won't be a good route runner, that can be learned if you're athletic enough and willing to work hard. But you can see when he's tracking the ball in the air that he's not a natural pass catcher and I don't think you can really do much about that at 25. So while I think he'll be a good WR for the Bears for the next several years, and should put up FF WR 25-30 #s, I think the talk of him as the next Steve Smith is overestimating his ability more than a little.

And the fact that Smith was always a WR.....and always a pretty darn good WR. You hit the nail on the head with his ball tracking......but I don't agree that he will become a good route runner....the only reason I say that is that he just does not look natural playing the WR position. He is a great Kick Returner and the fact that the Bears are going to use him less in that capacity is a mistake......He is a game changer as a returner and pretty insignificant as a #1 WR

 

[switz]

Here are the things being said in this thread:

RJS113:

2009 Projections:

80 Catches 1200 Yards 7 TDs

wdcrob:

I think he catches 65 for something around 1000 and 6 TDs: 12-13 PPG (PPR), WR 25-30.

Instinctive:

Isn't the bolded portion exactly what people said about one Steve Smith going into his 3rd year as a receiver after being a very dynamic kick/punt returner?

EBF:

At the very least, I think you can expect him to put up the kind of numbers Berrian did for Chicago in 2007. His ceiling is quite a bit higher than that. I think the stars are definitely aligning for Hester to put up a 900-1200 yard season in 2009.

boubucarow:

Personally, I think he will catch 60+ balls for 800+ yards as a non-injury floor. If he reaches 1,000 yards which I can easily see happening, he is looking at top 24 status last year with a 5 touchdown season.

Manster:

I'd say 65 rec. 1000 yds and 5 tds is reasonable, with much upside. i could also see a couple of rushing tds from reverses or something similar.

So pretty much, all of those quotes expect near 1,000 yards, or in excess of it... and he gets compared to Steve Smith and Hines Ward

Last year 21 WRs had 1,000 yards, that's fewer than there are #1 WRs in the league, given 32 teams. Only 8 had 1200 yards receiving.

Do you guys really think Hester is among the top-21 WRs in the league? Would you really take him over any of these guys? Do you see ANY guys on that list who didn't play WR in college?

Andre Johnson - MVP of the 2002 Rose Bowl, 3rd overall pick in 2003

Larry Fitzgerald - 2003 Biletnikoff, Walter Camp, and Chic Harley award winner, Heismann runner up, 3rd overall pick in 2004

Steve Smith - Conference record holder for YPC in college, 3rd round pick

Roddy White - two year All-Conference USA selection in college, 27th overall selection in 2005

Calvin Johnson - greatest Georgia Tech receiver of all time, 3 time All-ACC, Biletnikoff winner, 2nd overall pick in 2007

Greg Jennings - two time All-MAC, WMU record holder, only the 11th player to gain over 1,000 yards three times in college career

Brandon Marshall - MVP of Hawaii Bowl, All-C-USA,

Antonio Bryant - one of only 4 players (Randy Moss, Fitz, Crabtree) to win Biletnikoff as a sophomore

Wes Welker - UFA, over his four college seasons, he had 259 receptions for 3,019 yards and 21 touchdowns

Reggie Wayne - UoM record holder, 30th overall pick

Vincent Jackson - Conference Offensive Player of the Year, Colorado Offensive Player of the Year, All-American (1st Team)

Terrell Owens - college record holder for single season receptions

Santana Moss - All-Big East Conference First Team, Big East Offensive and Special Teams Player of the Year

Hines Ward - played both wide receiver and quarterback, second in team history at WR for Bulldogs, All-SEC honors as WR

Anquan Boldin - played both wide receiver and quarterback, ROY as WR

Derrick Mason - Michigan State record holder for most receptions and most receiving yards in a game

Dwayne Bowe - SEC Offensive Player of the Week (10/21/06 vs. Fresno State), Coaches' First-team All-SEC 2006, AP Second-team All-SEC 2006, AP First-team All-American 2006, Rivals.com Third-team All-American 2006, 23rd overall pick

Lee Evans - Wisconsin record holder for receiving TDs, 13th overall pick

Donald Driver - five time "Athlete of the Year" in college, 7th rounder

Randy Moss - one of the best WRs of all time

Steve Breaston - most prolific return man in Wolverines history, played WR as well, 1696 receiving yards in college

There is not a single player on that list that didn't play extensively as a WR in college.

There are a few that played special teams extensively in college, notably Steve Smith, Santana Moss, Wes Welker, Derrick Mason, and Steve Breaston.

Steve Smith started as a rookie at WR, and has had at least 78 receptions in each of his 1,000 yard seasons.

Santana Moss played primarily as KR his rookie season, and has had at least 74 receptions in each of his 1,000 yard seasons.

Wes Welker played primarily as KR his first two seasons, and has had at least 110 receptions in each of his 1,000 yard seasons.

Derrick Mason started as a rookie at WR, and has had at least 73 receptions in each of his 1,000 yard seasons.

Steve Breaston played primarily as KR his rookie season, and has had 77 receptions his only 1,000 yard season.

So you've got on that list, Santana Moss and Wes Welker as reasons for optimism. Hester and Welker are nothing alike at all, Welker gets all his catches on short crossing patterns, and takes a lot of hits, and needs a lot of catches. Santana Moss has only had 3-1,000 yard seasons in 8 years playing. He has averaged about 800 yards per season, and 5 TDs. He's only had double digit TDs once in his career.

IMO Moss and Hester are very much alike, in that their games are based on speed, more than routes. Moss has to his credit a 1,483 yard season with 9 TDs. So it's not impossible for Hester to do something like that... the odds however are very much against it.

 

[switz]

Last 13 games (when he was healthy and starting)49-652-13.3-3Projected for 16 games that's 60-800-4

I can buy that... I would guess he will be more likely to see 55 receptions, for 750 yards, and 4-5 TDs.

 

[EBF]

You're really grasping at straws with the experience argument. If you don't think Hester has what it takes to be an effective starting WR then that's fine, but if he fails it won't be because he didn't play WR in college.

It's no mystery why people see him as a nice sleeper pick this year. He has a low price tag, a good pedigree, steady statistical progression, and a wide open situation where he could easily emerge as the top pass catcher on the team.

He doesn't have to be great to exceed expectations. Look at Bernard Berrian. A couple years ago he was in a very similar situation in Chicago. He wasn't a great WR, but he was a decent talent who had shown steady improvement throughout his career. He finally got the WR1 job and he produced above expectations. I don't see why Hester can't do the same.

 

[baconisgood]

One thing that many posters are ignoring when projecting is the fact that deep passes get less and less valuable as your offense improves. The better your team is at moving the ball the less likely you are to want high variance chucks down the field- the opportunity cost of losing a 12 yard route and a first down is big for such a small chance of completing a deep ball (most of which don't end up in TDs even when they are completed). That's why 1st and 5 and 2nd and 2 are the downs that threaten deep passes- the opportunity cost is much reduced as you are still reasonably likely to pick up a first in those situations on the incompletion.

Do I expect Hester to be more productive on the deep balls that actually get thrown to him this year? Yes. Do I expect Cutler to throw deep as many times? No. Last year the Bears were a league average defense basically. Denver was bottom 5 and had 314 running back injuries. I would expect far fewer passes and fewer deep balls next year. If Hester remains only a deep threat 1000 yards and 6 TDs is looking like his ceiling to me with 800 and 4 being a rough projection. Olsen is my target on this team right now.

 

[switz]

You're really grasping at straws with the experience argument. If you don't think Hester has what it takes to be an effective starting WR then that's fine, but if he fails it won't be because he didn't play WR in college.

Then why have all the top WRs in the in the NFL had extensive WR experience in college?Explain to me why all the WR conversion projects don't succeed and become #1 WRs in the NFL? You've already tried to use the most successful ones - Matt Jones (flop) and Randle El (WR3) both of whom actually played QB in college.

Why aren't there more DBs converted into WRs, since DBs are generally better athletes? We've seen a few tries at that, notably Deion (flop)

Please provide some legitimate evidence where a good athlete in college who didn't play WR came into the league and became a 1,000 yard producer.

I've give you all the evidence that the good NFL WRs were good college WRs first. Now you say I'm wrong, but it's on you to prove it.

 

[Adebisi]

It's not often that I agree with Switz, but he's spot-on here.

 

[EBF]

You're really grasping at straws with the experience argument. If you don't think Hester has what it takes to be an effective starting WR then that's fine, but if he fails it won't be because he didn't play WR in college.

Then why have all the top WRs in the in the NFL had extensive WR experience in college?Explain to me why all the WR conversion projects don't succeed and become #1 WRs in the NFL? You've already tried to use the most successful ones - Matt Jones (flop) and Randle El (WR3) both of whom actually played QB in college.

Why aren't there more DBs converted into WRs, since DBs are generally better athletes? We've seen a few tries at that, notably Deion (flop)

Please provide some legitimate evidence where a good athlete in college who didn't play WR came into the league and became a 1,000 yard producer.

I've give you all the evidence that the good NFL WRs were good college WRs first. Now you say I'm wrong, but it's on you to prove it.

You're applying faulty logic:Something hasn't happened therefore it isn't possible.

I'm a big fan of trends, but every player is a unique event in history. There had never been a seventh round WR who produced 1,000+ yards as a rookie until Marques Colston. There had never been a collegiate basketball player who became a Pro Bowl TE until Antonio Gates. There had never been a third round RB from Villanova who became a star until Brian Westbrook.

It's useful to evaluate players over the backdrop of relevant trends, but Devin Hester is not Drew Bennett/Antwaan Randle El/Hines Ward/Matt Jones. He's Devin Hester. How well previous WR converts fared has no bearing on how well Devin Hester will fare. I merely mentioned those players to show that playing WR in college is not a prerequisite for becoming a solid pro WR. Just because none of them became All Pro type players doesn't somehow mean that someone who didn't play WR extensively in college can't do it. The only limiting factor that prevented those players from becoming stars was their own talent level. Likewise, the only limiting factor that will prevent Devin Hester from becoming a reliable starting WR is his own talent level. His collegiate experience is pretty much irrelevant at this point.

Like a lot of people, you're letting Hester's background sway your opinion. If you didn't know anything about his college usage and you only knew the objective facts, you wouldn't have so much trouble with the idea of him as a breakout candidate.

- Second round draft pick

- Elite speed and quickness

- Steady statistical improvement every season

- Entering his second season as a starter in a starting role with an elite FF QB throwing him the ball

That's a nice combination of talent and opportunity, but some people are so stuck on the idea of "Devin Hester return man" that they're blind to his potential as an offensive player. That's exactly why he's a value pick. If everyone realized what a compelling sleeper candidate he is, he wouldn't slip in drafts and he wouldn't be a value anymore. One of the ways to get an edge in FF is to discover value where other people can't yet see it. I think Hester could be someone who emerges from obscurity and becomes a solid WR3-WR4 type for FF teams this season. If everything clicks, he could even have an Eddie Royal type of season.

Your argument about experience is paper thin and immaterial at this point now that Hester has already won a starting WR job and shown signs of becoming a productive player at the position.

 

[Adebisi]

I don't think anyone is saying that it's not possible just because it hasn't happened before.

Just that it's unlikely.

 

[EBF]

I don't think anyone is saying that it's not possible just because it hasn't happened before.Just that it's unlikely.

In some respects, it already happened. Hester's 2nd half averages last season were fairly respectable. Add in Cutler and it wouldn't take a very big improvement for Hester to become a relevant FF WR in 2009.That's one of the funny things about this argument. switz is insisting that Hester is junk as a WR, but this is the exact same junky receiver who was able to put up halfway decent stats last year as a first year starter on an inept passing offense led by Kyle Orton. If that same junky WR could do that kind of damage in a poor situation, why is it hard to believe that he could put together some pretty decent stats with someone like Cutler at the controls? I don't see it as a big stretch.

 

[fourd]

You're really grasping at straws with the experience argument. If you don't think Hester has what it takes to be an effective starting WR then that's fine, but if he fails it won't be because he didn't play WR in college.

Then why have all the top WRs in the in the NFL had extensive WR experience in college?Explain to me why all the WR conversion projects don't succeed and become #1 WRs in the NFL? You've already tried to use the most successful ones - Matt Jones (flop) and Randle El (WR3) both of whom actually played QB in college.

Why aren't there more DBs converted into WRs, since DBs are generally better athletes? We've seen a few tries at that, notably Deion (flop)

Please provide some legitimate evidence where a good athlete in college who didn't play WR came into the league and became a 1,000 yard producer.

I've give you all the evidence that the good NFL WRs were good college WRs first. Now you say I'm wrong, but it's on you to prove it.

You're applying faulty logic:Something hasn't happened therefore it isn't possible.

I'm a big fan of trends, but every player is a unique event in history. There had never been a seventh round WR who produced 1,000+ yards as a rookie until Marques Colston. There had never been a collegiate basketball player who became a Pro Bowl TE until Antonio Gates. There had never been a third round RB from Villanova who became a star until Brian Westbrook.

It's useful to evaluate players over the backdrop of relevant trends, but Devin Hester is not Drew Bennett/Antwaan Randle El/Hines Ward/Matt Jones. He's Devin Hester. How well previous WR converts fared has no bearing on how well Devin Hester will fare. I merely mentioned those players to show that playing WR in college is not a prerequisite for becoming a solid pro WR. Just because none of them became All Pro type players doesn't somehow mean that someone who didn't play WR extensively in college can't do it. The only limiting factor that prevented those players from becoming stars was their own talent level. Likewise, the only limiting factor that will prevent Devin Hester from becoming a reliable starting WR is his own talent level. His collegiate experience is pretty much irrelevant at this point.

Like a lot of people, you're letting Hester's background sway your opinion. If you didn't know anything about his college usage and you only knew the objective facts, you wouldn't have so much trouble with the idea of him as a breakout candidate.

- Second round draft pick

- Elite speed and quickness

- Steady statistical improvement every season

- Entering his second season as a starter in a starting role with an elite FF QB throwing him the ball

That's a nice combination of talent and opportunity, but some people are so stuck on the idea of "Devin Hester return man" that they're blind to his potential as an offensive player. That's exactly why he's a value pick. If everyone realized what a compelling sleeper candidate he is, he wouldn't slip in drafts and he wouldn't be a value anymore. One of the ways to get an edge in FF is to discover value where other people can't yet see it. I think Hester could be someone who emerges from obscurity and becomes a solid WR3-WR4 type for FF teams this season. If everything clicks, he could even have an Eddie Royal type of season.

Your argument about experience is paper thin and immaterial at this point now that Hester has already won a starting WR job and shown signs of becoming a productive player at the position.

Except he's already being drafted as a wr3, so where's the value in his "possibly" emerging as a wr 3/4?

 

[fourd]

I don't think anyone is saying that it's not possible just because it hasn't happened before.Just that it's unlikely.

In some respects, it already happened. Hester's 2nd half averages last season were fairly respectable. Add in Cutler and it wouldn't take a very big improvement for Hester to become a relevant FF WR in 2009.That's one of the funny things about this argument. switz is insisting that Hester is junk as a WR, but this is the exact same junky receiver who was able to put up halfway decent stats last year as a first year starter on an inept passing offense led by Kyle Orton. If that same junky WR could do that kind of damage in a poor situation, why is it hard to believe that he could put together some pretty decent stats with someone like Cutler at the controls? I don't see it as a big stretch.

In ppr leagues Hester averaged 5.39 in the first half and 5.85 the second. I would hope he improves upon that this year. How much is very open to debate.

 

[EBF]

You're really grasping at straws with the experience argument. If you don't think Hester has what it takes to be an effective starting WR then that's fine, but if he fails it won't be because he didn't play WR in college.

Then why have all the top WRs in the in the NFL had extensive WR experience in college?Explain to me why all the WR conversion projects don't succeed and become #1 WRs in the NFL? You've already tried to use the most successful ones - Matt Jones (flop) and Randle El (WR3) both of whom actually played QB in college.

Why aren't there more DBs converted into WRs, since DBs are generally better athletes? We've seen a few tries at that, notably Deion (flop)

Please provide some legitimate evidence where a good athlete in college who didn't play WR came into the league and became a 1,000 yard producer.

I've give you all the evidence that the good NFL WRs were good college WRs first. Now you say I'm wrong, but it's on you to prove it.

You're applying faulty logic:Something hasn't happened therefore it isn't possible.

I'm a big fan of trends, but every player is a unique event in history. There had never been a seventh round WR who produced 1,000+ yards as a rookie until Marques Colston. There had never been a collegiate basketball player who became a Pro Bowl TE until Antonio Gates. There had never been a third round RB from Villanova who became a star until Brian Westbrook.

It's useful to evaluate players over the backdrop of relevant trends, but Devin Hester is not Drew Bennett/Antwaan Randle El/Hines Ward/Matt Jones. He's Devin Hester. How well previous WR converts fared has no bearing on how well Devin Hester will fare. I merely mentioned those players to show that playing WR in college is not a prerequisite for becoming a solid pro WR. Just because none of them became All Pro type players doesn't somehow mean that someone who didn't play WR extensively in college can't do it. The only limiting factor that prevented those players from becoming stars was their own talent level. Likewise, the only limiting factor that will prevent Devin Hester from becoming a reliable starting WR is his own talent level. His collegiate experience is pretty much irrelevant at this point.

Like a lot of people, you're letting Hester's background sway your opinion. If you didn't know anything about his college usage and you only knew the objective facts, you wouldn't have so much trouble with the idea of him as a breakout candidate.

- Second round draft pick

- Elite speed and quickness

- Steady statistical improvement every season

- Entering his second season as a starter in a starting role with an elite FF QB throwing him the ball

That's a nice combination of talent and opportunity, but some people are so stuck on the idea of "Devin Hester return man" that they're blind to his potential as an offensive player. That's exactly why he's a value pick. If everyone realized what a compelling sleeper candidate he is, he wouldn't slip in drafts and he wouldn't be a value anymore. One of the ways to get an edge in FF is to discover value where other people can't yet see it. I think Hester could be someone who emerges from obscurity and becomes a solid WR3-WR4 type for FF teams this season. If everything clicks, he could even have an Eddie Royal type of season.

Your argument about experience is paper thin and immaterial at this point now that Hester has already won a starting WR job and shown signs of becoming a productive player at the position.

Except he's already being drafted as a wr3, so where's the value in his "possibly" emerging as a wr 3/4?

I think it varies greatly depending on the league. Casual local league players probably won't consider Hester in the top 40 WRs. You should be able to grab him cheap in these drafts. Your league mates might even rib you for wasting a pick on a return man.

In more competitive leagues where the owners are more knowledgeable, Hester might be overdrafted. I'm not suggesting that he's a value play as a top 25 WR. I see him as an ideal WR3-WR4 candidate with WR2 upside. FBGs has him ranked at WR39 in their most current redraft rankings. I think he's a nice gamble at that price.

Even though I'm defending him, I don't think he's the next Steve Smith. I just see him as a clear convergence of talent + opportunity. I think he could easily have the kind of season Berrian had for the Bears when he emerged from obscurity and I think the Cutler factor adds a layer of upside since he's been able to yield some very productive WRs in his brief career.

A good pick in the mid-late rounds when the talent starts to dry up. Nothing more.

 

[switz]

You're really grasping at straws with the experience argument. If you don't think Hester has what it takes to be an effective starting WR then that's fine, but if he fails it won't be because he didn't play WR in college.

Then why have all the top WRs in the in the NFL had extensive WR experience in college?Explain to me why all the WR conversion projects don't succeed and become #1 WRs in the NFL? You've already tried to use the most successful ones - Matt Jones (flop) and Randle El (WR3) both of whom actually played QB in college.

Why aren't there more DBs converted into WRs, since DBs are generally better athletes? We've seen a few tries at that, notably Deion (flop)

Please provide some legitimate evidence where a good athlete in college who didn't play WR came into the league and became a 1,000 yard producer.

I've give you all the evidence that the good NFL WRs were good college WRs first. Now you say I'm wrong, but it's on you to prove it.

You're applying faulty logic:Something hasn't happened therefore it isn't possible.

I'm a big fan of trends, but every player is a unique event in history.

Your argument about experience is paper thin and immaterial at this point now that Hester has already won a starting WR job and shown signs of becoming a productive player at the position.

Still waiting for you to give me one piece of evidence that he can turn into a 1,000 yard receiver.Here is what you're missing - Devin Hester, the individual, has never shown at any level, the ability to be a consistent producer at the WR position. We're not talking about other players, we are talking about Devin Hester.

He was a multi-faceted athlete in HS, playing DB, RB, WR, and QB. He never had a 1,000 yard season receiving in HS. Tabbed as the top defensive back prospect coming out of high school, he was recruited to be a WR at U of M, and yet he only caught 5 balls, and barely played as a WR. In fact, they played him primarily at DB where most athletes without WR skills get moved.

The ONLY reason Hester got a shot in Chicago is because they had a dearth of WRs.

They drafted FOUR WRs this year, and brought in some FAs as well, they lost Brandon Lloyd a journeyman...

Aromashodu, Devin FA from Indy, promising kid

Bennett, Earl Rookie last year

Broussard, John Rookie last year

Davis, Rashied Fifth year player, nothing special

Iglesias, Juaquin * Rookie

Kinder, Derek * Rookie

Knox, Johnny * Rookie

Peterman, Eric * Rookie

Rideau, Brandon Practice squad guy from CLE

If Bennett steps up this season, and Iglesias or Knox are half as good as they should be, Hester will be back as a FT KR sooner than later.

 

[EBF]

The fact that Hester is a starting WR in the NFL is more important to me than what he did in college. He has shown steady improvement as a WR throughout his career and is on track to become one of the top targets for a great QB. That makes him an obvious breakout candidate. If you want to keep dwelling on his college days, then so be it. I don't see how they're relevant four years after the fact when he has climbed the ladder at the highest level of football and earned a starting job.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Randle El was never the #1 WR on his team.Matt Jones has always had drug problems, and consistent problems with either his QB or OL play to keep him from a good situation.Hines Ward had a switch at QB, neither of which were stellar passers (Graham and Kordell) plus I believe Bobby Shaw was their #1 WR and they had Plaxico get like 30 catches that year?Drew Bennett wasn't the #1 WR, Derrick Mason was.POINT BEING: Hester is the #1 WR option for his team, and it can defintiely be argued he has a better QB situation and OL (to protect said QB) than any of those players.

I'm with Switz as well, at least generally.Randle El, Drew Bennett and Matt Jones have never been good enough to be the #1 WR for their team. That's Switz's point. If they were a superior option, they would have produced by now. Drew Bennett, in particular, underwhelmed when Mason shipped off to Baltimore. Coincidence? I don't think so.As I posted earlier, I think Hester has a very narrow window of opportunity, maybe as short as 2009 alone. I definitely wouldn't burn a dynasty pick on him. There are good, young athletes behind him and abreast of him...one of them with Cutler history.Editorial note: We are throwing around the cliche "#1 WR" way too much and obviously using it with different intent. The recent thread on the Giant's GM where he was talking about what a #1 WR is was pretty insightful.Are we assigning #1 status to the guy with the most receptions for his team the previous year? A guy who we think is a dominant force at the position? The X receiver (as opposed to the Y and Z)? The guy with the most yards last year for his team? The guy who got the most targets the previous season? What?Example: When did Chad Johnsons become a #1 WR? Was it 2002? Who was the leading receiver (with upside) in 2001?I'm not saying I believe Bennett is the next Ocho, but to assume an athletic guy who hasn't established himself as a good WR is automatically going to be the his team's primary target before training camp even starts is taking a lot on faith.

 

[switz]

I don't see how they're relevant four years after the fact when he has climbed the ladder at the highest level of football and earned a starting job.

Go back through the stats and find all the WRs who had at least 50 catches in their third season... then how many of those actually went on to become solid starting WRs. The percentages are much smaller than you'd like to think.I like Hester as a player, he's exciting to watch, but I'm a realist. The odds are extremely against him in this case, that's the point I've made over and over.Could he be the 1% that makes it? Why not... would I draft him as the 30-40 WR off the board in those hopes? Absolutely not, as I think there are better prospect than Hester.

 

[switz]

That's one of the funny things about this argument. switz is insisting that Hester is junk as a WR

No I never said that. I have maintained he is not going to be a great WR, but possibly a NFL WR3. That's not junk... it's just not what you baselessly are wishing for.

 

[gianmarco]

I don't see how they're relevant four years after the fact when he has climbed the ladder at the highest level of football and earned a starting job.

Go back through the stats and find all the WRs who had at least 50 catches in their third season... then how many of those actually went on to become solid starting WRs. The percentages are much smaller than you'd like to think.I like Hester as a player, he's exciting to watch, but I'm a realist. The odds are extremely against him in this case, that's the point I've made over and over.

Could he be the 1% that makes it? Why not... would I draft him as the 30-40 WR off the board in those hopes? Absolutely not, as I think there are better prospect than Hester.

Hester finished WR44 in 1 ppr leagues last year. He also showed a clear improvement as the year went on and had a better 2nd half than a 1st year. Keep in mind, last year was only his 2nd year as a WR and only his 1st year where he played a significant amount at WR. His 2nd half included games of:4/54

5/57

3/67/1

5/80

4/46

6/85

Spectacular? Not at all. Decent (in ppr leagues)? Eh, not bad as a WR3/4 type. That kind of production will end the year with ~60 catches/700-800 yds/4-5 TDs. What kind of guys put up #'s like that? Guys like A. Gonzalez and S. Holmes last year. It's nothing to write home about but it's startable.

But, you now add another year of experience and you add a SIGNIFICANT upgrade at QB who can actually utilize Hester's strengths. Not everybody has to have WR1/2 upside. I think those expecting a 1200 yd season out of Hester are fooling themselves. That's simply not realistic. Those expecting a 1000 yd season out of Hester are a bit closer, but I think that's his upside, not what I would expect. Hoping for a Berrian or Kevin Walter type year is what would be nice. I wouldn't bet on it, but definitely within the realm of possibility and wouldn't require much more to get to that level. At worst, you'll have a bye week fill in who you can at least count on.

WR30-40 range seems just about right for him. 30 is a bit higher than I'd like and checking back at my list I put up, I have him in the WR38 slot.

Personally, I think the big Hester fans are seeing more upside than is really there but the Hester detractors are downgrading both his floor and upside based on the fact he has little WR experience. I'd be very surprised if he didn't hit 50 receptions and 600 yds with 3-4 TDs again. I wouldn't be surprised if he got up to 70-80 receptions and 900-1000 yds with 5-6 TDs. Buying him at WR35-40 price with those #'s is decent value, IMO.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I think Hester's biggest obstacles to a 1000 yard season are the depth at WR behind him and his value as a returner.Unless Hester can outperform the other WR's on the roster by a good margin, I think the coaching staff will want to get more bang for their buck by saving him for the return game. He was a game-changing force as a returner...as a WR...not so much.I think he's kind of an experiment at WR that will run its course in a season or so...are as soon as another WR one the roster is ready to take over.

you must have missed this:Rotoworld) Devin Hester could reportedly take fewer punt returns this season. Analysis: He's not going to return kicks, similar to the end of last season. Bears coordinator Ron Turner says Hester is an "every-down receiver" and the team is clearly focusing on his receiving skills, versus his return skills. With Jay Cutler's deep arm on his side, we think Hester is a solid WR3 who has been undervalued in early drafts.

Oh, well then. I guess it's written in stone and he'll never return punts again.They had to go one way or the other. His punt return average tanked last season...and the speculation was that his time at WR was the cause.So Turner thinks Hester can be an every down receiver and is giving him a shot. No one has disputed that he'll get that shot. The dispute is whether he'll be able to thrive in that position. We've got Steve Smith on the one end and Dante Hall on the other. I don't see him as a Steve Smith. I stand by my prediction that as the other WR's on the team develop, they will eventually see it as a net gain for the team to get Hester back in the return game and get the other WR's more involved in the passing game.

 

[renesauz]

Last 13 games (when he was healthy and starting)49-652-13.3-3Projected for 16 games that's 60-800-4

I can buy that... I would guess he will be more likely to see 55 receptions, for 750 yards, and 4-5 TDs.

But you completely ignored the rest of the argument. There is absolutely no reason to expect a regression in progression...NONE. OTOH..there are several legit reasons to expect some improvement.Now...if you don't buy those reasons...that's cool, but the numbers you predict here have to be considered as his floor. Even a very small progression justifies his current ADP, and many of us see good reasons to expect more then a "very small" progression, and target him.Nobody's going to agree on every player, but your arguments in this thread are far below your normal quality, and I'm thinking EBF is right...you've made up your mind and are being too obtuse to change it. That's not the way to win in fantasy.

 

[Bri]

the most inexperienced WR on the team(and in NFL?) entering camp, wound up leading them in receiving. That's pretty significant growth or development IMO

 

[Instinctive]

When did Dante Hall become the #1 WR on his team?

Look, I totally agree that Hester is not likely to exceed and end rank of WR 32 or so, but he definitely has the athleticism, situation, and opportunity to far exceed people's expectations and could be a WR2.

This is a thread I want to come back and read next year, because Hester definitely could go either way. And EBF is correct in stating that just b/c it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't. That's a huge logical fallacy.

 

[renesauz]

I don't see how they're relevant four years after the fact when he has climbed the ladder at the highest level of football and earned a starting job.

Go back through the stats and find all the WRs who had at least 50 catches in their third season... then how many of those actually went on to become solid starting WRs. The percentages are much smaller than you'd like to think.I like Hester as a player, he's exciting to watch, but I'm a realist. The odds are extremely against him in this case, that's the point I've made over and over.

Could he be the 1% that makes it? Why not... would I draft him as the 30-40 WR off the board in those hopes? Absolutely not, as I think there are better prospect than Hester.

Hester finished WR44 in 1 ppr leagues last year. He also showed a clear improvement as the year went on and had a better 2nd half than a 1st year. Keep in mind, last year was only his 2nd year as a WR and only his 1st year where he played a significant amount at WR. His 2nd half included games of:4/54

5/57

3/67/1

5/80

4/46

6/85

Spectacular? Not at all. Decent (in ppr leagues)? Eh, not bad as a WR3/4 type. That kind of production will end the year with ~60 catches/700-800 yds/4-5 TDs. What kind of guys put up #'s like that? Guys like A. Gonzalez and S. Holmes last year. It's nothing to write home about but it's startable.

But, you now add another year of experience and you add a SIGNIFICANT upgrade at QB who can actually utilize Hester's strengths. Not everybody has to have WR1/2 upside. I think those expecting a 1200 yd season out of Hester are fooling themselves. That's simply not realistic. Those expecting a 1000 yd season out of Hester are a bit closer, but I think that's his upside, not what I would expect. Hoping for a Berrian or Kevin Walter type year is what would be nice. I wouldn't bet on it, but definitely within the realm of possibility and wouldn't require much more to get to that level. At worst, you'll have a bye week fill in who you can at least count on.

WR30-40 range seems just about right for him. 30 is a bit higher than I'd like and checking back at my list I put up, I have him in the WR38 slot.

Personally, I think the big Hester fans are seeing more upside than is really there but the Hester detractors are downgrading both his floor and upside based on the fact he has little WR experience. I'd be very surprised if he didn't hit 50 receptions and 600 yds with 3-4 TDs again. I wouldn't be surprised if he got up to 70-80 receptions and 900-1000 yds with 5-6 TDs. Buying him at WR35-40 price with those #'s is decent value, IMO.

I personaly think he's a bit more likely to hit your upside numbers then your downside, but your argument is both logical and factual. I've been targetting him in the WR32-34 area....just ahead of his ADP, and not always landing him (EBF snagged him in front of me in one league)

 

[fourd]

the most inexperienced WR on the team(and in NFL?) entering camp, wound up leading them in receiving. That's pretty significant growth or development IMO

Of course a cynic might point out that he didn't have much competition from the "experienced" receivers, he ended up 44th overall among wrs in ppr, Greg Olsen had more catches and tds and not a whole lot fewer yards on fewer targets. Good thing I'm not a cynic.

 

[fourd]

I don't see how they're relevant four years after the fact when he has climbed the ladder at the highest level of football and earned a starting job.

Go back through the stats and find all the WRs who had at least 50 catches in their third season... then how many of those actually went on to become solid starting WRs. The percentages are much smaller than you'd like to think.I like Hester as a player, he's exciting to watch, but I'm a realist. The odds are extremely against him in this case, that's the point I've made over and over.

Could he be the 1% that makes it? Why not... would I draft him as the 30-40 WR off the board in those hopes? Absolutely not, as I think there are better prospect than Hester.

Hester finished WR44 in 1 ppr leagues last year. He also showed a clear improvement as the year went on and had a better 2nd half than a 1st year. Keep in mind, last year was only his 2nd year as a WR and only his 1st year where he played a significant amount at WR. His 2nd half included games of:4/54

5/57

3/67/1

5/80

4/46

6/85

Spectacular? Not at all. Decent (in ppr leagues)? Eh, not bad as a WR3/4 type. That kind of production will end the year with ~60 catches/700-800 yds/4-5 TDs. What kind of guys put up #'s like that? Guys like A. Gonzalez and S. Holmes last year. It's nothing to write home about but it's startable.

But, you now add another year of experience and you add a SIGNIFICANT upgrade at QB who can actually utilize Hester's strengths. Not everybody has to have WR1/2 upside. I think those expecting a 1200 yd season out of Hester are fooling themselves. That's simply not realistic. Those expecting a 1000 yd season out of Hester are a bit closer, but I think that's his upside, not what I would expect. Hoping for a Berrian or Kevin Walter type year is what would be nice. I wouldn't bet on it, but definitely within the realm of possibility and wouldn't require much more to get to that level. At worst, you'll have a bye week fill in who you can at least count on.

WR30-40 range seems just about right for him. 30 is a bit higher than I'd like and checking back at my list I put up, I have him in the WR38 slot.

Personally, I think the big Hester fans are seeing more upside than is really there but the Hester detractors are downgrading both his floor and upside based on the fact he has little WR experience. I'd be very surprised if he didn't hit 50 receptions and 600 yds with 3-4 TDs again. I wouldn't be surprised if he got up to 70-80 receptions and 900-1000 yds with 5-6 TDs. Buying him at WR35-40 price with those #'s is decent value, IMO.

Is .5 points per game a clear improvement? I don't get the better second half argument. And I'm not a Hester-hater, I just don't see him doing a lot more this year, even with Cutler.

 

[switz]

This is a thread I want to come back and read next year, because Hester definitely could go either way. And EBF is correct in stating that just b/c it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't. That's a huge logical fallacy.

And no one is arguing it won't... just that's it's not very likely.

 

[gianmarco]

I don't see how they're relevant four years after the fact when he has climbed the ladder at the highest level of football and earned a starting job.

Go back through the stats and find all the WRs who had at least 50 catches in their third season... then how many of those actually went on to become solid starting WRs. The percentages are much smaller than you'd like to think.I like Hester as a player, he's exciting to watch, but I'm a realist. The odds are extremely against him in this case, that's the point I've made over and over.

Could he be the 1% that makes it? Why not... would I draft him as the 30-40 WR off the board in those hopes? Absolutely not, as I think there are better prospect than Hester.

Hester finished WR44 in 1 ppr leagues last year. He also showed a clear improvement as the year went on and had a better 2nd half than a 1st year. Keep in mind, last year was only his 2nd year as a WR and only his 1st year where he played a significant amount at WR. His 2nd half included games of:4/54

5/57

3/67/1

5/80

4/46

6/85

Spectacular? Not at all. Decent (in ppr leagues)? Eh, not bad as a WR3/4 type. That kind of production will end the year with ~60 catches/700-800 yds/4-5 TDs. What kind of guys put up #'s like that? Guys like A. Gonzalez and S. Holmes last year. It's nothing to write home about but it's startable.

But, you now add another year of experience and you add a SIGNIFICANT upgrade at QB who can actually utilize Hester's strengths. Not everybody has to have WR1/2 upside. I think those expecting a 1200 yd season out of Hester are fooling themselves. That's simply not realistic. Those expecting a 1000 yd season out of Hester are a bit closer, but I think that's his upside, not what I would expect. Hoping for a Berrian or Kevin Walter type year is what would be nice. I wouldn't bet on it, but definitely within the realm of possibility and wouldn't require much more to get to that level. At worst, you'll have a bye week fill in who you can at least count on.

WR30-40 range seems just about right for him. 30 is a bit higher than I'd like and checking back at my list I put up, I have him in the WR38 slot.

Personally, I think the big Hester fans are seeing more upside than is really there but the Hester detractors are downgrading both his floor and upside based on the fact he has little WR experience. I'd be very surprised if he didn't hit 50 receptions and 600 yds with 3-4 TDs again. I wouldn't be surprised if he got up to 70-80 receptions and 900-1000 yds with 5-6 TDs. Buying him at WR35-40 price with those #'s is decent value, IMO.

Is .5 points per game a clear improvement? I don't get the better second half argument. And I'm not a Hester-hater, I just don't see him doing a lot more this year, even with Cutler.

You're looking at it from a fantasy PPG standpoint. Not the best measure to see if a player is going to improve.1st half -- 21 receptions for 257 yds

2nd half -- 30 receptions for 408 yds

Small sample size and small #'s to work with, but to me an improvement. You can eyeball his game logs and notice a clear progression both in his involvement in the game and targets as well as what he did with them.

Look at his 1st 4 games of the year:

1/7

1/6

0/0

3/27

Now look at the rest of his games, particularly the 2nd half.

If you were to prorate those #'s using 1st half vs. 2nd half, for example, 60/816 looks MUCH better than 42/514. That's the difference between actually being startable and not being startable. So yes, that's a clear improvement to me.

 

[switz]

But you completely ignored the rest of the argument. There is absolutely no reason to expect a regression in progression...NONE. OTOH..there are several legit reasons to expect some improvement.

Why not? It's impossible for him to regress as he's given a larger role?And you say I have a preformed opinion? Lots of players regress... there are a ton of reasons to think he might regress:- More competition from other WRs- New QB he's never played with before- Won't surprise defenses anymore- Didn't show much improvement between first 8 games and last 8 games- Never nailed down a spot in the lineup last year- Had a hard time grasping the offense as a part time player, may have a harder time with a full playbookAnd I don't think he will regress! I just don't think he'll make the quantum leap that so many in here do...If he comes out and puts up 800 yards and 5 TDs, I'll be much closer in my projections than most in this thread. And that will still be a HUGE improvement for him.

 

[fourd]

I don't see how they're relevant four years after the fact when he has climbed the ladder at the highest level of football and earned a starting job.

Go back through the stats and find all the WRs who had at least 50 catches in their third season... then how many of those actually went on to become solid starting WRs. The percentages are much smaller than you'd like to think.I like Hester as a player, he's exciting to watch, but I'm a realist. The odds are extremely against him in this case, that's the point I've made over and over.

Could he be the 1% that makes it? Why not... would I draft him as the 30-40 WR off the board in those hopes? Absolutely not, as I think there are better prospect than Hester.

Hester finished WR44 in 1 ppr leagues last year. He also showed a clear improvement as the year went on and had a better 2nd half than a 1st year. Keep in mind, last year was only his 2nd year as a WR and only his 1st year where he played a significant amount at WR. His 2nd half included games of:4/54

5/57

3/67/1

5/80

4/46

6/85

Spectacular? Not at all. Decent (in ppr leagues)? Eh, not bad as a WR3/4 type. That kind of production will end the year with ~60 catches/700-800 yds/4-5 TDs. What kind of guys put up #'s like that? Guys like A. Gonzalez and S. Holmes last year. It's nothing to write home about but it's startable.

But, you now add another year of experience and you add a SIGNIFICANT upgrade at QB who can actually utilize Hester's strengths. Not everybody has to have WR1/2 upside. I think those expecting a 1200 yd season out of Hester are fooling themselves. That's simply not realistic. Those expecting a 1000 yd season out of Hester are a bit closer, but I think that's his upside, not what I would expect. Hoping for a Berrian or Kevin Walter type year is what would be nice. I wouldn't bet on it, but definitely within the realm of possibility and wouldn't require much more to get to that level. At worst, you'll have a bye week fill in who you can at least count on.

WR30-40 range seems just about right for him. 30 is a bit higher than I'd like and checking back at my list I put up, I have him in the WR38 slot.

Personally, I think the big Hester fans are seeing more upside than is really there but the Hester detractors are downgrading both his floor and upside based on the fact he has little WR experience. I'd be very surprised if he didn't hit 50 receptions and 600 yds with 3-4 TDs again. I wouldn't be surprised if he got up to 70-80 receptions and 900-1000 yds with 5-6 TDs. Buying him at WR35-40 price with those #'s is decent value, IMO.

Is .5 points per game a clear improvement? I don't get the better second half argument. And I'm not a Hester-hater, I just don't see him doing a lot more this year, even with Cutler.

You're looking at it from a fantasy PPG standpoint. Not the best measure to see if a player is going to improve.1st half -- 21 receptions for 257 yds

2nd half -- 30 receptions for 408 yds

Small sample size and small #'s to work with, but to me an improvement. You can eyeball his game logs and notice a clear progression both in his involvement in the game and targets as well as what he did with them.

Look at his 1st 4 games of the year:

1/7

1/6

0/0

3/27

Now look at the rest of his games, particularly the 2nd half.

If you were to prorate those #'s using 1st half vs. 2nd half, for example, 60/816 looks MUCH better than 42/514. That's the difference between actually being startable and not being startable. So yes, that's a clear improvement to me.

His first 4 games had Brandon Lloyd as the 1. He became more invloved as Lloyd got hurt and stayed that way for most of the year. But going on with your view, he had almost double the targets in the second half - 60 - 32 and didn't do all that much with them. His td total doubled to 2. On a per target basis he actually declined in production.

 

[Instinctive]

So what? if I force feed you the ball 180 times, even if you can only catch 2/5 times you still get 72 catches! We seem to be underrating the value of opportunity.

 

[switz]

So what? if I force feed you the ball 180 times, even if you can only catch 2/5 times you still get 72 catches! We seem to be underrating the value of opportunity.

Are you kidding me? Do you really think Hester is going to get 180 targets? Last year Hester was targetted 92 times, playing in all 15 games, starting 8. In his 8 starts, he was targeted 49 times. He caught 51 of 92 (55%) overall targets, 28 of 49 (57%) targets as a starter.Prorate that, and you get 98 targets, and you get 56 receptions. That is using his games as a starter..

Regular Season	Games	ReceivingWK	Date	Opp	Result		G	GS	Tgt	Rec	%Ct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD1	09/07	 @ IND	W   29-13	1	1	2	1	.50	7	7.0	7	02	09/14	 @ CAR	L   17-20	1	0	1	1	1.00	6	6.0	6	03	09/21	 TB	L   24-27	0	0	--	--	--	--	--	--4	09/28	 PHI	W   24-20	1	0	5	3	.66	27	9.0	20T	15	10/05	 @ DET	W   34-7	1	1	6	5	.83	66	13.2	32	16	10/12	 @ ATL	L   20-22	1	0	10	6	.60	87	14.5	17	07	10/19	 MIN	W   48-41	1	1	2	2	1.00	22	11.0	13	08	Bye		--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--9	11/02	 DET	W   27-23	1	0	6	3	.50	42	14.0	18	010	11/09	 TEN	L   14-21	1	1	8	4	.50	54	13.5	29	011	11/16	 @ GB	L   3-37	1	0	5	1	.20	7	7.0	7	012	11/23	 @ STL	W   27-3	1	1	7	5	.71	57	11.4	27	013	11/30	 @ MIN	L   14-34	1	1	8	3	.37	67	22.3	65T	114	12/07	 JAC	W   23-10	1	0	10	5	.50	80	16.0	31	015	12/11	 NO	W   27-24	1	0	6	4	.66	46	11.5	20	016	12/22	 GB	W   20-17	1	1	8	2	.25	12	6.0	9	017	12/28	 @ HOU	L   24-31	1	1	8	6	.75	85	14.2	37	0