Dez v Demaryius. Who you got. (1 Viewer)

[rocketsauce]

Like many others, I have a tight race for my #2 WR in PPR between Demaryius Thomas & Dez Bryant. I'm strongly considering pulling the trigger on 1 in the first round, and have been doing a bit of homework on them in preparation for making my decision. Here's some things I noticed on their schedule:


Demaryius Thomas

IND, KC, @SEA, BYE, ARI, @NYJ, SF, SD, @NE, @OAK, @STL, MIA, @KC, BUF, @SD, @CIN, OAK

Perhaps the biggest knock I have on Demaryius, is that in addition to him having some tough "shutdown" corner matchups this year, he has that early bye in week 4. Nobody likes their first round pick to already be on the bench in the first month of the season (but then again - it is out of the way early). In fact that week 3 to week 5 stretch of @SEA (Richard Sherman), BYE, ARI (Patrick Peterson) looks potentially soul crushing. I like to think that Peyton & Demaryius can beat these guys, but Peyton might be content to go elsewhere.

In addition to the early draw v Sherman & Peterson, Demaryius also has Revis with New England. Last year, he faced none of these teams, and never really faced anyone with a dynamic cornerback presence, short of maybe the Chiefs, who crumbled in the 2nd half of the season.

Dez Bryant

SF, @TEN, @STL, NO, HOU, @SEA, NYG, WSH, ARI, @JAX, BYE, @NYG, PHI, @CHI, @PHI, IND, @WSH

I didn't mention the San Fran matchups for either of these players, because while they are a dynamic and intimidating defense, they don't really have that true "shutdown" corner like some of the other big boys. Dez also draws Sherman and Peterson, in weeks 6 and 9, a little more spaced apart, which puts me a bit more at rest. Dez also has the added benefit of facing the sieve secondaries (2013 anyway) of the NFC West 2 times. This schedule LOOKS much more appealing to my eye, on paper.

According to the strength of schedule for Wide Receivers found on ESPN, Dallas projects to play the 28th toughest schedule, while Denver projects to the 21st. So both fall in the bottom half of the league in that regard.

I don't have a conclusion to all of this. Just wanted to generate a little discussion, and see if this helps to make anyone else's mind clearer on the Dez v Demaryius question. I think it has me slightly leaning towards Dez, mainly due to that rough 3-4-5 for Demaryius. You might even get a buy low opportunity on Demaryius coming out of the bye or heading into week 6.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Don't assume Sherman will be on Demaryius. Sherman doesn't move all over to cover a specific WR; he plays the same side, and in the Super Bowl, Denver stuck Decker over on Sherman for most of the game, essentially conceding that he wouldn't be a factor, and moved Thomas all over to get him the ball. Granted, that was not a winning strategy, but I suspect they will do the same with Demaryius again against Seattle. I doubt they'll just throw him over with Sherman and not throw it to him all game.

 

[dkp993]

Guys like Dez or DT get theirs regardless. I like DT better then Dez.....

 

[steelerfan1]

interested to see opinions here as well.

for dez, didn't scott linehan come on as THE O-coordinator? have heard that he really focuses the gameplan on getting the ball to the #1 guy, aka calvin and tory holt.

if room were to go down which is always a possibility, how would weeden do getting the ball to him?

for thomas, peyton has been pretty durable other than the 1 year he missed. believe he will also receive enough looks to repeat last years numbers.

really close for me.

 

[purestrength]

This is a lame answer, but I don't think you can go wrong either way.

 

[Eminence]

Give me the guy with less injury concerns.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I had DT solidly at #2 last year.

I have his ceiling higher then Calvin currently. But still at #2 overall behind Megatron.

I have Dez (#4) dead even with AJ(#3) and Julio(#5), and Julio could be alone at #3 if he practices/plays just fine in preseason.

 

[LBH]

I'd rather have Dez. The Cowboys defense looks to be terrible and the NFC offenses all look good enough to put up a lot of points on them. I think Dez will still be getting fed late in to the 4th qtr while Denver could be more in ball control mode at that point. Would be happy with either

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

DT. I like Dez better as a player, but for some reason I feel that Romo is a huge risk this season. I'm not confident in that back.

 

[Sabertooth]

SHould be a poll.

I like Dez better. I think he's the better player. Peyton is going to hit a wall at some point. Might be this year. You never see it coming, that's why its called the wall.

 

[False Start]

Dez quite possibly could be the #1 WR this year, If Thomas couldnt be the #1 WR with the season his QB had last year, that is something that speaks his ceiling is where its at as nothing changed in his offense. Dez already was lighting it up as much as DT and he did not have Manning throwing to him, combine that with the new offense and OC in Dallas and Dez may break a bunch of records.

I'll take either but if I need one and I'm picking first, give me Dez.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I like dez mostly based on the fact that they look fairly equal right now, based strictly on last year, but dez has some change in his situation that might be a positive for him, where thomas is in mostly the same situation, and last year, as good as it was, might even turn out to be a bit of a statistical outlier --- does manning throw 55 td again this year?

denver led the league, last year, with 1156 offensive plays, while dallas had fewest plays of any team at 957.

you can say that'll just repeat itself this year, but I tend to think that gap will narrow.

bear in mind, the linehan lions were 5th in the league in offensive plays at 1102.

 

[MattFancy]

Wow this is tough. Like others have said, I don't really think there is a wrong answer. For me, I think I'd lean towards Dez though. The Cowboys figure to be in a ton of shootouts this year with their terrible defense. Also, the addition of Linnehan at OC means they won't have any problem throwing the ball 40-50 times a game if need be. Demaryius will certainly still get his and could finish ahead of Dez, but I think I'd rather Dez for this year.

 

[Shutout]

Dez Bryant is going to be the #1 WR this year among his peers, assuming all the front-runner names stay healthy and its a fair 16 games for each.

THe perfect storm is building for him and Linehan will see to it that it works. Gone are the days where you shadow him or set the D up to bracket him. He will now be moved all over the place and he is going to run over and through a lot of broken coverages down the field this season.

Going back to the original question, though and comparing Dez and Thomas. One of these guys is coming off the benefit of being part of the greatest statistical season for a QB playing at a level we probably have never seen before. The other has put together 2600/26 in the last two years and just got the golden boy OC handed to him on a team that can't stop anyone on defense and is in a division where everyone likes to score fast and furious. You make the call. You want the guy that looks primed for natural regression or normalizing or do you want the guy that was great and just got more opportunity handed to him?

 

[fightingillini]

Dez quite possibly could be the #1 WR this year, If Thomas couldnt be the #1 WR with the season his QB had last year, that is something that speaks his ceiling is where its at as nothing changed in his offense. Dez already was lighting it up as much as DT and he did not have Manning throwing to him, combine that with the new offense and OC in Dallas and Dez may break a bunch of records.

I'll take either but if I need one and I'm picking first, give me Dez.

DT was the #1 WR in all 3 of my leagues.....well I guess on a PPG basis, Gordon was higher, but his 19 YPC could never be sustained.

 

[fightingillini]

Dez Bryant is going to be the #1 WR this year among his peers, assuming all the front-runner names stay healthy and its a fair 16 games for each.

THe perfect storm is building for him and Linehan will see to it that it works. Gone are the days where you shadow him or set the D up to bracket him. He will now be moved all over the place and he is going to run over and through a lot of broken coverages down the field this season.

Going back to the original question, though and comparing Dez and Thomas. One of these guys is coming off the benefit of being part of the greatest statistical season for a QB playing at a level we probably have never seen before. The other has put together 2600/26 in the last two years and just got the golden boy OC handed to him on a team that can't stop anyone on defense and is in a division where everyone likes to score fast and furious. You make the call. You want the guy that looks primed for natural regression or normalizing or do you want the guy that was great and just got more opportunity handed to him?

DT in 2013 - 92/1430/14

DT in 2012 - 94/1442/10

So DT produced elite level stats even when Manning didn't have his career year. So I would argue that DT will get his and Manning's career year benefited Julius Thomas and Decker much more. So I think you citing DT for regression is silly.

But that said, I do think Dez has much more upside, for reasons that you present here. Terrible D, OC who has a history of getting the #1WR the ball.....a lot, and a QB who isn't afraid to sling it downfield. Also, Terrance Williams, Witten, and Demarco Murray are all good receiving options, and should help keep Ds from bracketing coverage over to Dez. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 110 rec, 1600 yd, 17 TD year from Dez......that's a lot of upside.

So take your pick. DT is a safer pick.....Dez has more upside but more risk. I would be happy with either one. Since I need a 1st round pick to roster either player, I would lean towards the safer play in DT, but I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Dez over him. Dez is #3WR on my board.

 

[hotboyz]

I have Dez as #1 wr

 

[Shutout]

Dez Bryant is going to be the #1 WR this year among his peers, assuming all the front-runner names stay healthy and its a fair 16 games for each.

THe perfect storm is building for him and Linehan will see to it that it works. Gone are the days where you shadow him or set the D up to bracket him. He will now be moved all over the place and he is going to run over and through a lot of broken coverages down the field this season.

Going back to the original question, though and comparing Dez and Thomas. One of these guys is coming off the benefit of being part of the greatest statistical season for a QB playing at a level we probably have never seen before. The other has put together 2600/26 in the last two years and just got the golden boy OC handed to him on a team that can't stop anyone on defense and is in a division where everyone likes to score fast and furious. You make the call. You want the guy that looks primed for natural regression or normalizing or do you want the guy that was great and just got more opportunity handed to him?

DT in 2013 - 92/1430/14

DT in 2012 - 94/1442/10

So DT produced elite level stats even when Manning didn't have his career year. So I would argue that DT will get his and Manning's career year benefited Julius Thomas and Decker much more. So I think you citing DT for regression is silly.

But that said, I do think Dez has much more upside, for reasons that you present here. Terrible D, OC who has a history of getting the #1WR the ball.....a lot, and a QB who isn't afraid to sling it downfield. Also, Terrance Williams, Witten, and Demarco Murray are all good receiving options, and should help keep Ds from bracketing coverage over to Dez. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 110 rec, 1600 yd, 17 TD year from Dez......that's a lot of upside.

So take your pick. DT is a safer pick.....Dez has more upside but more risk. I would be happy with either one. Since I need a 1st round pick to roster either player, I would lean towards the safer play in DT, but I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Dez over him. Dez is #3WR on my board.

Asked a different way: Which seems more likely: The team with the 38 year old QB and the loss of Eric Decker comes down or the team with the guy with all the things mentioned who is also in a contract year goes up?

I agree, great choice to have and won't go wrong but in a hobby where 75% of the choices are based on speculation of opportunity, all signs point to Dez. IMO.

 

[Zyphros]

The system. Cowboys system is get the ball to playmakers while Broncos is get the ball to the open guy and they can make a play. I'd rather go Dez here for that reason where I think he'll get force fed and better match-ups with the new OC. DT will get his for sure but in that system I think his ceiling is capped since he won't be open on every play for Peyton to "choose" to throw to him. This isn't a Cutler/Marshall duo.

 

[Bankerguy]

Both are immense talents and both have excellent situations.

For me, my biggest worry is Tony Romo's back. If he misses anytime it will drastically impact Dez's numbers. I see DT as the safer pick and Dez with a higher potential ceiling but as well a lower floor. I prefer safer picks in early rounds, so I would take DT despite being a huge Cowboys and Dez fan personally.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I don't want to get hung up on a dez vs calvin thing, but just to look at it superficially

2013

dez 159 targets

calvin 156 in only 14 games

2012

dez 138

calvin 204 !

2011

dez 103

calvin 158 + 15 more in a playoff game

in 2006 + 2007 linehan coached the rams

2006 holt - 179 (1st)

2007 holt - 150 (9th)

in 2005 he was OC for the dolphins

(gus frerotte to ) c chambers - 165 (3rd)

I don't have target data for his years in minny as OC for randy moss, but the year before linehan got there (2001) moss caught 82 balls

2002 moss 106 catches (3rd)/ 1347 / 7

2003 moss 111 catches (2nd)/ 1632 / 17

if you want to dig even further down to his college years, he was with louisville 1999-2001

1999 - chris redman ranked 6th in passing attempts at 489 in 11 games, with arnold jackson 3rd in receptions at 101
2000 - deion branch

Branch started ten games and led the team with 71 receptions for 1,016 yards and nine touchdowns. His 6.45 catches per game ranked six in the nation

2001 - branch 72 / 1188 / 9 (got himself drafted in the 2nd round)

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Both are immense talents and both have excellent situations.

For me, my biggest worry is Tony Romo's back. If he misses anytime it will drastically impact Dez's numbers. I see DT as the safer pick and Dez with a higher potential ceiling but as well a lower floor. I prefer safer picks in early rounds, so I would take DT despite being a huge Cowboys and Dez fan personally.

kyle orton was under center for his farewell game in week 17 last year

dez - 8 / 99 / 1 on 13 targets

in dez's rookie year (2010) romo went down after about 5 games and was replaced by the illustrious jon kitna

dez's next few games -- 4/54/2, 7/84/0, 9/86/1, 3/104/1

2010 also happened to be the year matt stafford only managed to play 3 games, with drew stanton and shaun hill cleaning up the year for him

calvin (under linehan) was 6th in total points in my league that year with 77/1120/12

 

[Bankerguy]

Both are immense talents and both have excellent situations.

For me, my biggest worry is Tony Romo's back. If he misses anytime it will drastically impact Dez's numbers. I see DT as the safer pick and Dez with a higher potential ceiling but as well a lower floor. I prefer safer picks in early rounds, so I would take DT despite being a huge Cowboys and Dez fan personally.

kyle orton was under center for his farewell game in week 17 last year

dez - 8 / 99 / 1 on 13 targets

in dez's rookie year (2010) romo went down after about 5 games and was replaced by the illustrious jon kitna

dez's next few games -- 4/54/2, 7/84/0, 9/86/1, 3/104/1

2010 also happened to be the year matt stafford only managed to play 3 games, with drew stanton and shaun hill cleaning up the year for him

calvin (under linehan) was 6th in total points in my league that year with 77/1120/12

Good post. Small sample size, but point taken.

I still worry if Romo goes down early in the year what the team looks like with Weeden.

 

[MattFancy]

Both are immense talents and both have excellent situations.

For me, my biggest worry is Tony Romo's back. If he misses anytime it will drastically impact Dez's numbers. I see DT as the safer pick and Dez with a higher potential ceiling but as well a lower floor. I prefer safer picks in early rounds, so I would take DT despite being a huge Cowboys and Dez fan personally.

kyle orton was under center for his farewell game in week 17 last year

dez - 8 / 99 / 1 on 13 targets

in dez's rookie year (2010) romo went down after about 5 games and was replaced by the illustrious jon kitna

dez's next few games -- 4/54/2, 7/84/0, 9/86/1, 3/104/1

2010 also happened to be the year matt stafford only managed to play 3 games, with drew stanton and shaun hill cleaning up the year for him

calvin (under linehan) was 6th in total points in my league that year with 77/1120/12

Good post. Small sample size, but point taken.

I still worry if Romo goes down early in the year what the team looks like with Weeden.

But wouldn't you worry too if something happened to Manning's neck? All it takes it one good hit there and he could be done.

 

[RBM]

Flip a coin. End of season numbers will probable be very close.

Gun to my head I'm going DT because of Manning.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Big fan of both of these guys. I'm stuck at the 7th pick in the draft and if Calvin or Lacy doesn't fall to me, I'm likely picking between them.

How many of you guys feel comfortable drafting either of them above the likes of Graham and Lacy??

 

[rocketsauce]

Big fan of both of these guys. I'm stuck at the 7th pick in the draft and if Calvin or Lacy doesn't fall to me, I'm likely picking between them.

How many of you guys feel comfortable drafting either of them above the likes of Graham and Lacy??

This is my exact situation, although I'm at #6, and not really thinking about Lacy at this point. He IS my next RB on the board there, but I'd rather go with the safety and security of a top WR (PPR, start 3 WRS) than a guy I think has a pretty high bust probability in Lacy.

So if my draft was today, I'm picking either Calvin, Dez, or Demaryius. I just don't like the way my mock drafts end up if I go Graham. I might pull the trigger on Gronk or Julius if they were there in the 3rd, but otherwise I'm content waiting to be the last to take a TE this year. I just really like my teams best so far in mocks when I go WR-WR with Dez or Demaryius, paired with Antonio Brown or Randall Cobb in the 2nd. Feels like such a secure base to build a team around, and then try to pick up some weekly options at RB later.

So yeah, I'm definitely on board.

Also: OP here. Thanks for all the conversation this has generated. Really some good eye opening thoughts and numbers here in the thread. I think I'm leaning Dez right now, on ceiling if nothing else.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

This is a coin flip for me as well. While everyone acknowledges Dez's improve situation we seem to be ignoring DT's improved situation. Decker's departure leaves 100+ targets up for grabs. I believe the DT is first in line to get a bump in targets. I am projecting a modest bump that is just enough to put him just ahead of Dez.

Don't misunderstand, I am well aware of Linehan's history and Dez could get an insane bump as well that would easily make him #1 overall. I am just not ready to make that leap yet.

 

[Rick James]

I like Dez simply because he's going later than DT.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Only by 1 or 2 picks in all drafts I have done or seen.

 

[EBF]

They're both really good, but I think DT is the #2 most talented WR in the league behind Calvin. Add an elite QB to the mix and he's going to be very, very solid.

I had DT in a few leagues last year and IIRC he only had one PPR week below 10 points. Dez is very good, but IMO DT is a slightly better version of the same thing.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I like Dez simply because he's going later than DT.

But if you had to choose between the two??

I think I would have to pick Demaryius by a decent sized margin for a lot of the reasons already stated. It's a much safer pick and I'm looking to minimize risk early on.

 

[Zyphros]

This is a coin flip for me as well. While everyone acknowledges Dez's improve situation we seem to be ignoring DT's improved situation. Decker's departure leaves 100+ targets up for grabs. I believe the DT is first in line to get a bump in targets. I am projecting a modest bump that is just enough to put him just ahead of Dez.

Don't misunderstand, I am well aware of Linehan's history and Dez could get an insane bump as well that would easily make him #1 overall. I am just not ready to make that leap yet.

I think those targets will mostly be for OJ/Welker/Sanders actually. Peyton doesn't throw deep as well as he use to or with as much pace, so I'm betting a good majority of his passes are going to be of the short slant variety. But then again DT may just get more screens and such as well so it could even out.

 

[Rick James]

I like Dez simply because he's going later than DT.

But if you had to choose between the two??

I think I would have to pick Demaryius by a decent sized margin for a lot of the reasons already stated. It's a much safer pick and I'm looking to minimize risk early on.

Dez. Just a hunch. I'd be tickled pink with either on my roster.

 

[Leonidas]

Demaryius.

More surrounding talent (QB and other receiving threats), better head on his shoulders, more likely to still be on the upswing of his career trajectory IMO.

 

[Ted Mullins]

DT. I like Dez better as a player, but for some reason I feel that Romo is a huge risk this season. I'm not confident in that back.

This was my first thought when I saw this thread - I'd probably go DT because Romo's back still sounds worrisome. Really can't go wrong with either of these guys though, both so good and in great situations. You could feasibly grab both if you are at the way back end of a 10 team draft and got lucky - would be an awesome start.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

This is a coin flip for me as well. While everyone acknowledges Dez's improve situation we seem to be ignoring DT's improved situation. Decker's departure leaves 100+ targets up for grabs. I believe the DT is first in line to get a bump in targets. I am projecting a modest bump that is just enough to put him just ahead of Dez.

Don't misunderstand, I am well aware of Linehan's history and Dez could get an insane bump as well that would easily make him #1 overall. I am just not ready to make that leap yet.

I think those targets will mostly be for OJ/Welker/Sanders actually. Peyton doesn't throw deep as well as he use to or with as much pace, so I'm betting a good majority of his passes are going to be of the short slant variety. But then again DT may just get more screens and such as well so it could even out.

I agree MOST will go elsewhere, but I think a small bump in targets is reasonable. I have him getting about two more per game, and agree that those targets can just as easily come on screens and slants as opposed to deep routes.

I am just struggling with allocating Dex's targets. Historically Linehan has feed his #1WR the ball. But I don't believe Linehan hasn't really had a TE and a #2WR on par with Witten and Williams.