Joe T
Footballguy
Disagree.
I think this sites are betting sports wagering will become legal. And they already have an existing customer base that they can market legalized sports wagering to. This would be a windfall for these sites.
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DFS advertising (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Quez
- Start date
I think this sites are betting sports wagering will become legal. And they already have an existing customer base that they can market legalized sports wagering to. This would be a windfall for these sites.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Yeah, if anything I think DFS could cut into the money that's spent gambling traditionally on sports. It already has a big leg up right now in that it's much more legit/easier to fund.
John Bender
Footballguy
This. Wouldn't be surprised if all the advertising they're doing is nothing more than to build a database of sports bettors and tread water financial until sports betting becomes legal.
James Daulton
Footballguy
I still don't get the tread water idea. Where is all their money going? Their overhead (outside of advertising) cannot be that high.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I think it's mostly advertising. DK is boston-based and only has 120 employees or something. As of 2014 they weren't profitable, but their growth is going to kind of sell the company, as they'll be able to tout larger and larger top prizes. There's going to be a $1m top prize every NFL week, no?
John Bender
Footballguy
The sheer amount of advertising is really it. I'd be curious to see the numbers but it's almost all spent on customer acquisiton.
They will sell these companies based on the number of users they get and could operate in the red for years and still have multi billion dollar offers come in enough to pay everyone off for a lifetime. They will sell...it's a matter of when and doing so at the right moment.
Zegras11
Footballguy
I've met both owners. This is not why they are doing it. We all knew there would be a time when it would explode and now is that time. Sports betting and DFS cross over, but not nearly to the degree you think they would. SB tried it and it failed.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
I've always assumed this is Las Vegas lobbying when the leagues scream "irreparable harm!!!!!!" anytime recently states like NJ try to enact legalized sports gambling.
Let's say I'm 100% wrong on the Vegas running scared angle for tourism and cash it brings. What then is the league's angle to vehemently squash sports wagering, while at the same time fully embrace DFS? I'm just trying to understand that, because it seems to me the leagues are really talking out of both sides of their mouths with the DFS embrace and not full sports market making.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Not sure but CNBC said DK was in discussions with bankers and a possible IPO. I agree that it is very possible to do well in betting sports and not do well in DFS. Of course there are similar elements and knowing fantasy really well helps when capping.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Freaking Americans.
We have to go through hoops to drop a parlay bet...meanwhile in Europe betting sites are on a team's jersey as their sponsor.
We have to go through hoops to drop a parlay bet...meanwhile in Europe betting sites are on a team's jersey as their sponsor.
John Bender
Footballguy
It's amazing.
If you beamed in a few super intelligent extra-terrestrial aliens and tried to explain to them how the lottery is legal in the United States, and how gambling is legal only in one city in the country, and even table games are banned entirely from certain states, they'd look at your "laws" like you were the dumbest group of people on the planet.
The NBA is in support of full sports market. NFL is starting to come around on it. No time to find the links right now, but they're out there
Zegras11
Footballguy
no.
This issue went all the way to the Supreme Court and they lost. Publicity rights.
John Bender
Footballguy
Perhaps, the most impossible thing to win at is legal. Stupidity.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Sure, but let's be realists here. The reason why X is legal and Y, which bears a close resemblance to X is not, usually comes down to whose lobbyists got what killed.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
nirad3
Footballguy
They would get torn up by the SEC. Fantex got put through the ringer, and with the billions that are going in and out of sites like DraftKings, I see no advantage of having them under the SEC microscope.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
just choose your sport, develop a statistically rigorous model for projecting player performance, create a lineup optimizer with various constraints to maximize risk-adjusted returns, write a script to choose the maximum allowable number of games, insert the players right into your lineup, and COLLECT YOUR CASH!
shadyridr
Footballguy
sounds exciting!
xulf
Footballguy
red stripe
Footballguy
In the $10 million DraftKings contest, 6 of the top 10 are single entry. If you are playing the big tournaments there is still a lot of luck involved but your edge will come down to your football knowledge and acumen and no spreadsheet or data science can really give you that. The big tournaments are basically a lottery with 10% vig for sure... FBG has great strategy articles but the #1 guy right now did no stacking at all just ran really hot with all his picks. Forte 5.3% owned, Keenan Allen 2.1% Eifert 3.9% Mariota 1%
If you are an FBG subscriber and understand the basics acumen of how to manage a gambling bankroll there's still plenty of money to be made in NFL DFS. The adverts are there to bring in the monies for us to win. YMMV
If you are an FBG subscriber and understand the basics acumen of how to manage a gambling bankroll there's still plenty of money to be made in NFL DFS. The adverts are there to bring in the monies for us to win. YMMV
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
So this is an important enough topic for you to use up your 227th post in almost 10 years?
What other topics have you weighed in on?
RUSF18
Footballguy
So conceivably that's about $3MM of the prize pool that will be cashed out immediately. Probably not what they were hoping for.
RUSF18
Footballguy
Specific question about advertising...I know every podcast/radio show has their own unique promo code that they are pushing to get referrals from these guys. But just on watching MNF now, the last two DK commercials here had codes of TURF and TICKET. Are unrelated companies buying these ads on behalf of DK, trying to reap the benefits of exposure to a larger audience, or are they as a company just promoting different codes for whatever reason?
Fariq
Footballguy
I suspect that DK just knows that people are more likely to sign up if they think they have a special code.
It's very easy to play with a positive expectation and make a small amount of money. (Only play in freerolls that offer real-money prizes. A mathematically proven +EV, can't-lose strategy.)
It's very difficult to average a yearly income from DFS sufficient to support yourself. (Although I personally know a number of people who do.) To make, say, $50,000 a year on average, you have to enter a lot of contests and bet a lot of money. That necessarily means entering a lot of contests at FanDuel and DraftKings, because that's where most of the action is. And that makes winning difficult because (a) all the other people trying to make a living at DFS are also playing there, and (b) overlays are difficult to find there.
But in between those two extremes, there is a lot of room.
I really don't think it's all that difficult for a small-time hobbyist to come out ahead. There's a lot of good information in the Cracking FanDuel and Cracking DraftKings books, but the most important advice for someone trying to earn a few hundred bucks a year playing DFS as a hobby isn't in there. The most important advice for that person, IMO, is to chase deposit bonuses and (especially) overlays at the smaller sites. There are a lot of overlays at the smaller sites, at least for now. If the average person plays only overlays, he will have a positive expectation. And it's not that hard to be above average at the smaller sites because many of the pros don't play there. There's not enough money at, say, FantasyScore to make it worth their time. When you're trying to enter $30,000 worth of contests in a given week, why go to a smaller site where, even if you enter every contest available, that's only like $1,000 or whatever? It takes just as much effort to generate a good set of FantasyScore lineups as it does to generate a good set of FanDuel lineups, but you can't wager very much on your FantasyScore lineups. (Some pros do enter every contest at every site, but I know some who stick mainly to FD and DK and just a few others like FantasyAces.) Not only are there fewer pros at the smaller sites, but the non-pros tend to enter weaker lineup there than at FD and DK because it's harder to find good publicly available lineup-optimization tools and stuff for them.
All of that may change within the next few years, but right now I'd compare DFS 2015 to Online Poker 2004 or so. It's just not that hard to beat the small-stakes games (especially at the smaller sites).
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The number of users is obviously most important, but any potential buyer will see the acquisition cost against the churn. My gut says in the future this will get them a lower multiplier.
If they want to sell, they should do so now. The cost to acquire new customers and defend market share will only increase - They're struggling to earn now, it will only get more difficult.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
chauncey
Footballguy
In case anybody stumbles into this thread and was not aware, there is a DFS forum here at footballguys now. I just discovered it tonight, I thought the comments about take it to the DFS forum were just people being snarky.
The staff here have put out some quality info between subscriber content, podcasts, the DFS forum, and the ebooks.
The staff here have put out some quality info between subscriber content, podcasts, the DFS forum, and the ebooks.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I also think the referral codes are to track advertising effectiveness.(time, medium,station/channel)
Does Fanduel have beginner contests? Came up empty searching on beginner or rookie. I have my $2 "windfall" from the free new player (50/50) contest to play.
Also, is there any reason to pick the slate including vs excluding the Thurs game?
Does Fanduel have beginner contests? Came up empty searching on beginner or rookie. I have my $2 "windfall" from the free new player (50/50) contest to play.
Also, is there any reason to pick the slate including vs excluding the Thurs game?
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GreekFreak
Footballguy
Looks like all that advertising got Congress attention
Why cant the government just leave us alone.
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lumpy19
Footballguy
The deposit bonuses clear at a horrific rate. They're nice to help reduce the "rake" but thats about it. A few years ago the sites would put the bonus cash right in the account to play with, that's a bonus. The bonus structure today is terrible.
I would suggest reading the FBG cracking fanduel guide and the DFS forum here but
the general consensus is to fade the Thursday game due to lower offensive stats versus Sunday and Monday games. All up to you though. Personally, I love KC's defense this Thursday against old man Manning and his horrible oline.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Appreciate the reply.. What I was wondering is, if I am not using any Thurs. players, is there any strategic reason to still use the Thurs. slate that allows others to use them vs the Sunday slate. Intuitively, it feels like i is better to have more players i the pool so there is less overlap in line ups, but I have no idea if that has merit.
I say yes....for the most part. You'll have people who want action and will load up their teams mostly players from the two Thursday teams. This obviously benefits you because you are being more selective with picking your players and don't feel the need to reach for Thursday players.
The other thing to be cautious of if entering a Thursday contest is not picking players who have a chance of not playing due to injury or something else. Once that Thursday game starts, you are locked in in fanduel and can't change any Sunday or Monday players you selected.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Thx, e. I took your advice and also posted in DFS, though I am on a totally different level than the rest.And thanks, esp. for the heads up that all lock on Thursday. I thought I read that I'd have until Sunday 1pm for remaining players.
If anyone wants to try the Fanduel new player contest, I think this link still works. (Since I played last week, it just takes me to main page.)
https://www.fanduel.com/facebook-coupon?p=FB35
If anyone wants to try the Fanduel new player contest, I think this link still works. (Since I played last week, it just takes me to main page.)
https://www.fanduel.com/facebook-coupon?p=FB35
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