Did You Make a Play For 2023 Picks? How’d it Turn Out? (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Curious about the folks who made moves for 2023 picks. I know I’m not the only one here who did. Curious how that worked out for y’all, or if you have to wait one more week to find out?

As some of y’all know from the Dynasty Trades topic, in my 12-team SF rebuild, I liquidated all assets over 28 years old back in early 2021, and went for youth & 2023 1sts. Moved players like Mike Evans, Chris Carson, ARob, Brady, Hopkins, and Mahomes. I kept coming close, but losing in the playoffs by 40-70 points against stacked but aging teams. Most of the players I moved got hurt, suspended (Nuk), or fell off a cliff (Evans), so at the least I know my intuition was good.

I continued to make deals this year to collect upside assets, and managed to build a core of youth while obtaining a total of 6x 2023 1sts (+ 2.01, 13th overall)

I also made 2 gambles, in attempt to improve draft picks.

One gamble worked out really well - I dealt Carr, Bourne, Hasty, and (a scrub WR I can’t remember) & what ended up being the 1.12 for the 1.02+ Amon-Ra St Brown.

The other…well, notsomuch. I paid a ‘23 1st that I rationally expected to be very late (lit was from 2021’s LCG loser, 2020’s LCG winner & perennial contender) plus a 2024 1st for a ‘23 1st I rationally expected to be early (3-win team in 2021). That 2021 LCG loser has J.Herbert, Keenan Allen, Breece Hall, Mike Evans, AJ Dilon, Montgomery, D.Cook, Cooks, Olave, and quite a few other solid pieces plus a ton of bench depth. They’re the 5th highest scoring team, yet due to injuries & under performers, plus crappy schedule luck, they went 4-9 with 1 YTP. Meanwhile the team that should have been terrible changed owners, and the new very aggressive owner made several deals to improve including selling out their entire 2023 draft (picks 2-6) and managed a playoff berth. They’ll now be the 1.07. Gah! Just an unlikely and improbable set of circumstances that conspired against my best laid plans.

So two big gambles - one paid off really well with a top 10 WR & pick 1.02. The other turned out horrifically, where I paid a 2024 1st to go from 1.05 to 1.07

Net result: 1.01 (me), 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, 1.07, 1.09, 1.13 + 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 5.01, 6.01 and a core of youth (Higgins, ARSB, Gabe Davis, ETN, Mattison, Pitts, KJO, McKenzie, Pacheco, Mason, Conklin, Likely)

All in all I’ll take it - it was very nearly a MUCH bigger disaster in that team 1.05 won in week 13 & team 1.02 lost. Had that been reversed team 1.05 would have been team 1.03. Whew.

This week’s games can’t affect draft standings, so this is now a lock.

I do wish I could take back that last trade, but I think I’ll be able to rebuild pretty well with that draft capital & my current roster. I still have to decide whether or not I want to move the 1.07 & 1.09 for a player, but I’ll cross that bridge when I come to it.

Anyone else make a bunch of moves for 2023 picks? How’d it work out for you? Any gambles? Jackpots or busts?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One good take-away for everyone here: learn from my mistake. Ya just never know how the chips are gonna fall. That 2nd deal I made should have improved my draft pick from 9-12 to 1-4, and instead I moved back 2 spots from 5 to 7.

Ain’t nothing a lock, and even the most loaded teams can have a crap season. The fantasy gods will always punish us for our hubris.

 

[Gally]

Everyone in my leagues hoarded 2023 first rounders so they never really exhanged hands and nobody was willing to move them reasonably. The hype for 2023 was real.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Everyone in my leagues hoarded 2023 first rounders so they never really exhanged hands and nobody was willing to move them reasonably. The hype for 2023 was real.

That’s why I started my collection in early 2021.

By the time this year rolled around the hype/value was too high.

 

[Gally]

By the time this year rolled around the hype/value was too high.

it was too high last year too. Thy hype for the 2023 class was just too high to get anything done for people that pay attention (meaning people reading the industry who was touting this as the best ever - kind of like insider trading driving stock prices way over their value but with nobody will to either pay that price or sell for reasonable price).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

By the time this year rolled around the hype/value was too high.

it was too high last year too. Thy hype for the 2023 class was just too high to get anything done for people that pay attention (meaning people reading the industry who was touting this as the best ever - kind of like insider trading driving stock prices way over their value but with nobody will to either pay that price or sell for reasonable price).

Not in week 1-2 of 2021 - IMO that was the last best chance to hunt for 2023 picks.

 

[Lehigh98]

Solid brag post, well done HSG!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Solid brag post, well done HSG!

I’m bragging that I completely botched a deal & cost myself 2 spots at the price of a 2024 1st?

I’m genuinely curious as to how this went for others.

 

[Crippler]

Not moving picks. My home league had 12 of 15 1st moved and 11 of 15 2nds. It is Superflex, TE premium, very flexible lineups as start 11 0 and IDP with 11 starters

The bottom feeders sold to get

worst team right now owns 1, 14, 16, 28 Best assets are Pickett, and young LB
2nd worst team has 2, 5, 13, 15. Best asset is Trey Lance
3rd worst team only has pick 3. Best assets are Watson, Etienne, Burks, Williams, Waller
4th worst team has 4, 9, 10. Assets Zach Wilson, Pollard, Pickens, Likely
5th worst has pick 27 only. Assets Cousins, Akers, Dionte, Schultz
6th worst has 6, 19, 20, 21. Has best assets of Jackson, J. Cook, Bateman, Davis, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Njoku, Sutton, Ridley, Schuster, R. Moore and good DL and LB
7th worst has pick 8. Assets Mac Jones, Stafford, Hunt

top teams with picks
best team that is loaded has 18, 22, 29
2nd best team has 14, 17
3rd best has nothing
4th best has nothing
5th best has 8, 12. Interesting team that draft lines up with. Fields, Lawrence, Chase, ASTB, D. Smith, Olave, Toney, Pitts, Hockenson. Good LB core.
rest have solid teams and own 23, 24 between 3 only

so no team has young core plus picks. Team 6 worst and team 5 best are closest to HSG but more balanced

even though top team sits with Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Goff, Barkley, Walker, Hall, Dobbins, Dillon, Stevenson, Henry, Jefferson, Diggs, Lamb, Waddle, Samuel, Allen, Palmer, Beckham, Thomas, Friermuth, Fant, Engram, Irv Smith and top D, so not league without warts but no team dominates 2023 draft and those in need mostly have

 

[Lehigh98]

I’m genuinely curious as to how this went for others.

I just started in SF TEP dynasty (+ devy) last year and in all three of my leagues you can only trade picks one year out. I only picked up one other 2023 1st and it was during the 2022 rookie draft. I traded down from 1.03 to 1.14 (24 team, 2 copy league) for a 2023 1st. I was still able to get my target (KW3, after a 3-pick trade up for a 3rd), but the guy he traded up for (Caleb Williams) is now looking like the devy QB1, so . His 2023 pick will be the 1.07 and mine will be the 1.15.

In other leagues, I've added some 2nds and 3rds but not many people are willing to trade 1sts, especially since you have to prepay 50% for the next season if you trade your first, just more of a PITA.

In one league a guy pulled a Ditka and traded all 3 of his 2022 picks and all 3 of his 2023 picks for 1.01 and then proceeded to draft Kenny Pickett (no, he doesn't know what he's doing). The worst thing was that the 2nd copy of Pickett went at 1.09, two picks from where he would have picked. So, he traded 5 picks: his 2022 2nd & 3rd, 2023 1st, 2nd, & 3rd to basically move up two picks. And the guy he traded all 6 of his picks to took Caleb Williams there. Killer deal for one of them.

I may not have picked up any firsts but in my main league my 2023 devys include:
Bijan Robinson
Michael Mayer
Quentin Johnston
Not to mention some top end 2024's.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I may not have picked up any firsts but in my main league my 2023 devys include:
Bijan Robinson
Michael Mayer
Quentin Johnston
Not to mention some top end 2024's.

That’s 3 rock solid 2023 devys

I’m going to make Bijan my ceremonial 1.01, even though I need QBs more than RBs.

Likely go RB-QB-QB

Then either take the best WR (since RB is deep) or try to move 1.04 + 1.09 (or 1.07) for a top WR. If I can’t find a taker, Mayer is high on my list for one of those late picks.

I’d say you’re in good shape.

 

[wlwiles]

One good take-away for everyone here: learn from my mistake. Ya just never know how the chips are gonna fall. That 2nd deal I made should have improved my draft pick from 9-12 to 1-4, and instead I moved back 2 spots from 5 to 7.

Ain’t nothing a lock, and even the most loaded teams can have a crap season. The fantasy gods will always punish us for our hubris.

Not a tear-down rebuild but I did something similar in my league.

Going into this year I felt like I had a strong contender team, just needed one more immediate WR piece to help top me off. So at our rookie draft I traded the '22 1.04 plus my own '23 1st and 2nd to get Ja'Marr Chase. I have another guy's '23 1st and 2nd and opted to keep his and trade away my own as mine would surely be later than his. His team is Mahomes, strong RB but only 2 deep, good TE, but crap at WR (and we start 3 of them). So I figure I'll have late '23 picks and his will be mid, maybe early if I get lucky.

And then my team started to slowly fall apart this year, injury after injury, faced the weekly high score three times, meanwhile the guy whose first and second I kept is having one of those magic seasons where he always scores just enough to win his matchup, nobody on his team is getting hurt, CMC getting traded allowed his Foreman to emerge as a viable flex, Jamaal Williams gets him 2 TD's weekly, his Hock got traded to better team, just one of those incredible rabbits-foot-up-his-keester type runs where everything falls his way. He's currently in 2nd place while I'm fighting like hell for the last playoff spot (and going to need help to get it).

@Hot Sauce Guy is dead right - you never know what will happen and who will be good or bad. Everytime you sell or buy a future pick and you think it'll be early or late, think again. Fortunes change fast in this game. My season went south so fast, if I'd have kept my own picks I'd have just torn it down and launched a rebuild. Without my own picks, I was hamstrung and forced into competing with a depleted roster. Keep your own picks if you can, it gives you flexibility when **** hits the fan.

 

[eighsse2]

Amazing to have so many early firsts in an expectedly great draft class! You must have made a lot of good moves in prior years to go with that great one this year.

My league recently banned trading of picks more than 1 year out But I still managed to make some moves for 2023 picks during this season. PPR, 1QB

Traded Dotson (who was my 2.08 pick) + Jordan Mason (from waivers) for what was expected to be a late-to-very-late first (plus Sermon...).
[ Projected net: Dotson + Mason <=> 1.09? ]

Later combined that newly acquired first with my own first (at that time, my own pick was expected to be  anywhere, 1-12, anybody's guess, but likely mid) plus Tua, to get what looked like the 1.01 and 2.01, but could have moved to .02's or .03's with a small miracle. Fortunately, the picks I received are now officially 1.01 and 2.01. Now the 2 firsts I traded away are a playoff lock, and a 99% playoff lock (so both anywhere from 1.06 to 1.12).
[ Projected net: 1.09? + 1.10? + Tua <=> 1.01 and 2.01 ]

Also traded Aaron Jones for a first from a team that was high in the standings but very low in points, hoping he would drop. Unfortunately for me, that team is now a playoff lock (yet 2nd from bottom in points), but I'm hoping for a one-and-done for a likely 1.06 or 1.07 (no ill will toward the other guy ... just looking out for number one).
[ Projected net: Aaron Jones <=> 1.08? ]

[[ TOTAL PRJECTED NET: Dotson + Mason + 1.10? + Tua + Aaron Jones <=> 1.01 + 2.01 + 1.08? ]]

Now looking forward to having Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Lamb, Godwin, Garret Wilson, Jameson Williams, Bijan Robinson (barring a disaster for him between now and September), Swift, Etienne, Mixon, plus some other depth pieces or sleepers, plus whoever I can get with the unknown mid-to-late first and the 13th pick. Still trying to make moves though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Everytime you sell or buy a future pick and you think it'll be early or late, think again. Fortunes change fast in this game. My season went south so fast, if I'd have kept my own picks I'd have just torn it down and launched a rebuild. Without my own picks, I was hamstrung and forced into competing with a depleted roster. Keep your own picks if you can, it gives you flexibility when **** hits the fan.

Yep. What I forgot to mention was when that team who was a perennial contender got to week 9 and was 2-7, he realized he didn’t have any 2023 1st or 2nd, so he started selling off aging assets to obtain injured guys like JaWill, and 2023 2nds and 3rds. So he went from unlucky to depleted & unlucky.

Things turn sideways fast in this game. Overall I can’t complain - I feel like it all averaged out in the wash.

But I would have had the top 5 picks + still had my 2024 1st had I not made that deal.

That stings regardless of overall outcome.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Amazing to have so many early firsts in an expectedly great draft class! You must have made a lot of good moves in prior years to go with that great one this year.

My league recently banned trading of picks more than 1 year out But I still managed to make some moves for 2023 picks during this season. PPR, 1QB

Traded Dotson (who was my 2.08 pick) + Jordan Mason (from waivers) for what was expected to be a late-to-very-late first (plus Sermon...).
[ Projected net: Dotson + Mason <=> 1.09? ]

Later combined that newly acquired first with my own first (at that time, my own pick was expected to be  anywhere, 1-12, anybody's guess, but likely mid) plus Tua, to get what looked like the 1.01 and 2.01, but could have moved to .02's or .03's with a small miracle. Fortunately, the picks I received are now officially 1.01 and 2.01. Now the 2 firsts I traded away are a playoff lock, and a 99% playoff lock (so both anywhere from 1.06 to 1.12).
[ Projected net: 1.09? + 1.10? + Tua <=> 1.01 and 2.01 ]

Also traded Aaron Jones for a first from a team that was high in the standings but very low in points, hoping he would drop. Unfortunately for me, that team is now a playoff lock (yet 2nd from bottom in points), but I'm hoping for a one-and-done for a likely 1.06 or 1.07 (no ill will toward the other guy ... just looking out for number one).
[ Projected net: Aaron Jones <=> 1.08? ]

[[ TOTAL PRJECTED NET: Dotson + Mason + 1.10? + Tua + Aaron Jones <=> 1.01 + 2.01 + 1.08? ]]

Now looking forward to having Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Lamb, Godwin, Garret Wilson, Jameson Williams, Bijan Robinson (barring a disaster for him between now and September), Swift, Etienne, Mixon, plus some other depth pieces or sleepers, plus whoever I can get with the unknown mid-to-late first and the 13th pick. Still trying to make moves though.

Nice work!

 

[eighsse2]

As others have stated: I try to be aware of possibilities of standings changing in unexpected ways. Sometimes I may try to make a trade strictly because I expect that others are not being open to the idea of changes in the future. Just look at my great team, I'm bound to be the 1.12 or at LEAST 1.11 ..." But it only takes one bad week to lose in the first round of the playoffs and finish with a 1.06-08.

 

[JohnnyU]

Great for RBs, not so much for WRs, except a few at the top (JSN, Addison, Johnson). Same for QBs, outside of Stroud and Young, Levis is overrated. I can see those in SuperFlex sitting there having to decide between Levis and a a stud RB or WR and taking Levis and regretting it later like Zach Wilson owners. I also believe people will take Anthony Richardson too early, especially in SF. I saw all I needed to see in Anthony Richardson when he mentally imploded against Kentucky. TEs, you have Mayer. I kind of like Kincaid. Overall I think the 2023 class was slightly overhyped.

 

[JohnnyU]

Solid brag post, well done HSG!

I agree, but one has to be careful to not have the need for 1.01, 1.02, and 1.03 every year and are always trading top assets for picks. They end up always playing fantasy football for the draft rather than trying to win FF championships. At some point you have to play the game.

 

[eighsse2]

Solid brag post, well done HSG!

I agree, but one has to be careful to not have the need for 1.01, 1.02, and 1.03 every year and are always trading top assets for picks. They end up always playing fantasy football for the draft rather than trying to win FF championships. At some point you have to play the game.

That is me, but I think (THINK????) I'm ready to play now?

 

[menobrown]

Only got one teams future first using Amari Cooper. Was as much about roster cut down as getting the pick as I viewed the team as one of the league favorites and that turned out to be the case. Pick is guaranteed 9-12.

All but one of my leagues have a draft playoffs involving the 6 non-playoff teams so not always easy getting a handle on whose pick to value as it's often the team that just missed the playoffs as the best pick to obtain and with most of those leagues trade deadline being a few weeks ago it only complicates that process at least if the goal was not so much accumulation of picks but more specifically to obtain Bijan or a top two pick kind of situation. Not the point of this thread but because of that unknown where I had assets I wanted to move for future picks/players I decided to turn my focus to acquiring Breece Hall which I was able to do in a few places.

 

[titusbramble]

Not been able to acquire any firsts, but do have three seconds, one was for all intents and purposes for Nuk, the other was a pick upgrade as part of a send JRob and get Mooney trade. Neither has really changed anything in terms of my team this season, it's independently gone to **** with my RBs not doing what was expected

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Solid brag post, well done HSG!

I agree, but one has to be careful to not have the need for 1.01, 1.02, and 1.03 every year and are always trading top assets for picks. They end up always playing fantasy football for the draft rather than trying to win FF championships. At some point you have to play the game.

This was not the case with me. I was a playoff team 3 straight years, losing in the LCG twice.

I blew up my team and traded aging assets for young players and picks.

And again - my intention was not to brag, but to see how this worked out for other teams that made plays for 2023 picks. I know there are many of them on this forum. It's interesting to me to see how those picks worked out, especially in light of how one of mine horrifically did not work out.

 

[Buckna]

I acquired 4 23 1sts in one league (traded 1 late one away) I am still building in. unfortunately that league is pretty highly segregated between 3-4 studly teams and like 4 total tear downs where the cupboard is bare for those teams. My team was middle of the pack so I moved some aging studs for youth and picks because some of those studly teams will be hard to beat until their RB’s age out in another year or two. Didn’t work out so well being competitive thanks to injuries on my squad for this year so likely will end up with something like the 5 (my pick), 6, 9, & 11. If I had kept the aging studs I would likely be a fringe playoff team at best though.

Probably will continue to trade, either up in a package or into 2024 if I can with those later picks and the extra 2nds I also have. Have a solid core to build around but need a QB, some healthy RB’s and another WR or two.

 

[massraider]

If I had the 1.1 , I would let it be known now I might trade it, and would ramp up talks after the combine. In my leagues, most guys are my/our age (40's), and most haven't figured out that RBs are overrated, and if you have stud QB and good WRs, you are in the playoffs.

People who have moved for 23 1sts, and DIDN'T get the Bijan pick, have plenty of ammo to get him.

It will very interesting to start a "what did you get for 1.1 this year?" thread.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If I had the 1.1 , I would let it be known now I might trade it, and would ramp up talks after the combine. In my leagues, most guys are my/our age (40's), and most haven't figured out that RBs are overrated, and if you have stud QB and good WRs, you are in the playoffs.

People who have moved for 23 1sts, and DIDN'T get the Bijan pick, have plenty of ammo to get him.

It will very interesting to start a "what did you get for 1.1 this year?" thread.

I am 52, and still covet elite RB. The older I get, the more rare they seem to be. So I will likely take Bijan with the 1.01

That said, IF Mattison becomes a feature back, AND Pacheco retains his early down role with KC, AND ETN is looking like a solid option, I *might* do something like your suggestion...note, it's a SF league and I am devoid of QBs. So I will likely take the best QB on the board at 1.01. And I might take the 2nd best QB at 1.02. And then offer up the 1.03 to see what people would be willing to pay for Bijan.

Same principal, but get those pesky QB needs out of the way.

I am not averse to moving those early picks, but at the same time, I also kinda like the idea of building through the draft. I'm a little torn as of right now. I hope to solidify my plan over the next 4-5 months.

What would you do if you had my roster and picks 1,2,3,4,7, 9, & 13? Pick or trade? (what I posted above + I have Zach Wilson as pretty much my only QB)

 

[massraider]

What would you do if you had my roster and picks 1,2,3,4,7, 9, & 13? Pick or trade? (what I posted above + I have Zach Wilson as pretty much my only QB)

I acquire picks whenever I can, except before the rookie draft. It takes a discipline, but I don't trade picks until after the NFL draft, when we all have draft fever. Everyone wants more picks, or wants that one guy. At some point, the last decent RB will be available in the 1st round, and whoever has that pick can probably get a haul for him.

That's when you get the best value, people will suddenly trade next year's 1 and 2 for a 1 this year.

The great thing about rookie drafts, they are predictable. So the value, to me, is when you KNOW it's time to take a guy, and you don't want him, that's trade time, to me. So maybe Quenin Johnson is going 10th, but you like him as the 4th best player. Trade 1.7 for a premium, and take him 9th. If I had that many picks, I would have my guys I would target, and trade the other picks. 70% of these picks are useless,no one thinks that going in of course, but I think it is valuable to have that list of guys you DON'T like.

You have to have opinions, rather than just taking the next guy on the ADP list, to feel good about that strategy.

It's funny, last year I had the Skyy Moore pick, but I thought it was the George Pickens pick. I hadn't put the pick on the block, and when Pickens was drafted in front of me, I only had a few hours to move the pick, and had to take Moore (guess I should have take Pierce). I should have been talking trade there, in case I didn't get Pickens, but I over-estimated the Moore hype, and ignored my own strategy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I acquire picks whenever I can, except before the rookie draft. It takes a discipline, but I don't trade picks until after the NFL draft, when we all have draft fever. Everyone wants more picks, or wants that one guy. At some point, the last decent RB will be available in the 1st round, and whoever has that pick can probably get a haul for him.

That's when you get the best value, people will suddenly trade next year's 1 and 2 for a 1 this year.

The great thing about rookie drafts, they are predictable. So the value, to me, is when you KNOW it's time to take a guy, and you don't want him, that's trade time, to me. So maybe Quenin Johnson is going 10th, but you like him as the 4th best player. Trade 1.7 for a premium, and take him 9th. If I had that many picks, I would have my guys I would target, and trade the other picks. 70% of these picks are useless,no one thinks that going in of course, but I think it is valuable to have that list of guys you DON'T like.

You have to have opinions, rather than just taking the next guy on the ADP list, to feel good about that strategy.

Yeah - I’m really trying to stay flexible, and I agree. Im not moving any picks until our rookie draft, which is after the NFL draft.

At that point we know ADP, we know which player went to which team, and I can definitively decide “I have these players as my top 10” and see where any discrepancy is between that & the consensus ADP.

I’ve also had 4 other teams sniffing out picks already, and I’ve told them all it’ll have to wait until I’m on the clock, so I could even get some bidding war action.

While I’m the only one who completely blew up his roster to rebuild, I’m not the only rebuilding team. Those picks are coveted - the question is whether I can fill more holes with picks, or by trading those picks.

For an hypothetical example, I might make a play at Fields out of the gate. Take Bijan & Stroud, then see if ZWilson+1.03+1.09 will net me fields (again, purely hypothetical). That team is also rebuilding but has 4 QBs, so it’s possible since they have other needs that those picks could help with.

Again, while there are players I really like (and I do think Bijan has a chance to be a generational talent) I am leaving all options open.

I’ve never had this sort of opportunity, so I don’t want to blow it. It’s kind of daunting, but also exciting as hell.

I can also see advantages to keeping the picks - youth, upside, etc. yes, more chances to bust, but also more chances to hit on picks with more picks.

Without a taxi squad it’s a little silly to have 17 picks with a 30-man roster, but post draft trades can also be fun.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

After week 2 I traded Hurts (I own Mahomes) to a team that was 0-2 for Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith and 2023 1st rounder (that I thought would be a high pick). Team rebounded and won 6 in a row at which point I traded that 2023 1st Rounder plus my own 1st Rounder (I was 8-0) at time with Devonta Smith for AJ Brown. Although I undersold on Hurts, I thought he was going to regress, but love having AJ Brown so not complaining at all!!

 

[dmac37]

The last 2 years I had a team ready to contend but a lot of bad luck left me out of the hunt with a high pick 2 years in a row. A few weeks ago I decided to blow up my team to some degree but think I will be ready to compete again next year (if I hit on a couple of RB's in this draft) while getting a lot younger.

My core heading into this season, 12 team 1pt PPR 1 QB.

Rodgers, Mayfield
A. Jones, Monty, Sanders, Hunt, Penny
M. Thomas, ARSB, K. Allen, Pittman, Mooney, Ridley
Hockenson

2022 draft
Jamo, Spiller, Pickett, Thornton

Trades this year

Give- Jones, Allen
Get- Early 1st (top 4), Early 3rd (top 4), Gallup, Kyren Williams

Give- Monty, late 3rd
Get- Early 2nd (top 4), Elijah Moore

My core heading into 2023 and draft picks, 12 team 1pt PPR 1 QB.

Pickett, Rodgers
Sanders, Hunt, Foreman, Spiller, Penny, Kyren Williams
ARSB, Jamo, Pittman, Mooney, Ridley, E. Moore, Gallup, M. Thomas
Hockenson

2023 Picks
1st Round- 2 top 4 picks
2nd Round- 2 top 4 picks
3rd Round- 2 top 4 picks
4th round- 1 top 4 pick
5th round- 1 top 4 pick

I need to hit on a couple of RB's in this draft

 

[Mister CIA]

I'm on the verge of sneaking into the playoffs. As a reference point, I'm kind of glad I held Najee Harris, D'Andre Swift, and Rhamondre; instead of dealing for 1st's (which would have been tough to negotiate).

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I have 4 firsts next year. Figured mine and two others would be early like 3/5 of the top picks and one would be like 10th.

My competitive fire got the better of me with the waiver pickups and I’ve been lucky to have Breece, Amon ra and Fields lay down some haymakers. And a couple of the guys I had figured as middle of the pac definitely are having a tough year.

The third ‘early’ pick is likely the 7th or 8th seed in the playoffs with quite a bit of luck in his matchups. Bottom 5 in points scored. Opposite story with the likely ‘late’ pick who’s also fighting for the 8th seed. 14 teamer.

So in summary, agree on the premise that buying a first, the level of certainty that we’ll know how things will shake out is not great but still, I was in grenade level close.

I’m guessing I’ll miss out on Bijan and Gibbs which is kinda a bummer.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm on the verge of sneaking into the playoffs. As a reference point, I'm kind of glad I held Najee Harris, D'Andre Swift, and Rhamondre; instead of dealing for 1st's (which would have been tough to negotiate).

I’d like to have Stevenson in dynasty. I couldn’t give away Swift last off-season, and I suspect Najee has lost a lot of value this year.

That’s a tough call - if you’re competing for a title, I respect not blowing it up. Plus Swift & Najee’s values are a bit suppressed. It’s gonna take time to rehab their worth in the minds of dynasty managers.

 

[Deamon]

Solid brag post, well done HSG!

Aren't most of his posts?

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

I sold Mixon for a 23 1st.
I sold Fournette for a 23 1st.
I sold Juju and James Conner for a 23 2nd.
I sold Mike Williams for a 23 2nd.
I sold Romeo Doubs for a 23 2nd and 24 2nd.
I sold Derrick Henry for a 24 1st.
I sold the 2022 1.09 for a 24 1st.

The Mixon pick will be 1.05.
The Fournette pick will be 1.04.
The Juju/Conner pick will be 2.07.
The Mike Williams pick will be 2.06
The Romeo Doubs pick will be 2.05.

I have, rather disastrously, won far too many games this season. I expected my own pick to be bottom 3 and it's the 6 overall. Leaves me with 4-5-6 in the 1st and 5-6-7 in the 2nd. This is a 14 teamer so those 2nds are devalued. It didn't go to plan anyway. I just kept winning. My team outside 2-3 players is rubbish but those guys put up massive totals in the same game week and won me a preposterous 6 games, 4 in a row at one point.

I'll make it work though.

 

[Sup_Yo]

Sold 2.02 and 2.09 right before the draft for a '23 1st. That will be 1.02 (and I have 1.01 as well).

 

[-OZ-]

I made a few deals with 2023 1sts in a SF

The first worked fairly well for both of us.
Before the 22 draft I dealt Marriotta and a 2022 2nd for a 23 1st. That pick is around 1.10-1.12 now. He has a fair chance to win the league, MM helped but probably isn’t winning the championship for him. He picked Dameon Pierce with the 2nd. I would have either taken Pierce or Dotson. Either of those guys are probably worth a late 23 1st now.

A few weeks ago I gave that first and javonte Williams for Saquon Barkley.

A few weeks before that, I gave Jameson Williams for Ekeler and a 23 1st. This pick will be the 7,8 or 12 (playoff team, winning gets him the last pick)

 

[Birdie048]

Nice Topic... some insight to be garnered and shared / Thanks @Hot Sauce Guy !!
In May 2021, I took over a team that had been "ignored" for 2-3 years. It had 2 items of value... AJ Brown & 1.01 pick the next best asset was Cam Newton & Philip Rivers....
This was a "complete rebuild" and limited starting capital for my initial efforts. 12 Team 1 QB / 1 RB/ 2 WR/ 1 TE / 2 Flex 0.5 PPR / 1.0 PPR TE 25 man roster & 2 IR (no Devy)

After numerous trades (>35 total trades) and wheeling & dealing, my plan was to start to be competitive in 2024 and onward challenge for a Crown in 2025
So for 2023 Draft, I have the following assets: Draft order not finalized / 1 more week of Regular Season
Picks = 1.01 (mine), 1.06 (could be 1.04 after this week), 1.08 (1.06-1.08), 1.09, 2.01, 2.04, 2.08, 2.09 + 2 x1sts in 2024
Youth = Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, J Mason, Gainwell/Trey Sermon, P Strong, Z White, Alec Pierce, J Metchie, Kyle Philips, Calvin Ridley

Mistakes: Traded for Calvin Ridley 10 days before the Gambling Suspension (Gave 1.05 & TJ Hock)
Traded for CMC in 2021 (Gave 2x 1sts, DJ Moore & Hollywood Brown) and traded CMC away in 2022 (1.09 & 2.09, Gainwell/Z White)

 

[pacman_fl]

I have a few leagues, but after winning back to back titles in one leagues with older players (Rodgers, Ryan), I decided to blow it up and go for my first rebuild. I moved the QBs for 2021 picks, Evans and Kirk for 2022 picks and Chubb for 23 and 24 firsts. I also traded my 2021 first for 2022 first and had an extra 2022 first that I traded for a 2023 first. It is a superflex and I had a plan in mind: WRs this year, RBs/QB in 23, QB/BPA in 24. I ended up with up with 1.1 & 1.3 this year and traded out of 1.1 (Hall) for 1.2 and additional picks. Olave/London (plus Spiller (?) at 2.8 and Wan'Dale (!) at 4.1). For 23, I have what is shaping up as 1.2, 1.3, 1.5, and two playoff teams (probably 1.7 - 1.9 and 1.11/1.12). Then 3 firsts next year (good possibility of 1.1 again via trade, plus mine, and a late pick). 22 of my current 27 are rookies. Boom or bust, here we come, but I've enjoyed the process.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I have, rather disastrously, won far too many games this season. I expected my own pick to be bottom 3 and it's the 6 overall. Leaves me with 4-5-6 in the 1st and 5-6-7 in the 2nd. This is a 14 teamer so those 2nds are devalued. It didn't go to plan anyway. I just kept winning. My team outside 2-3 players is rubbish but those guys put up massive totals in the same game week and won me a preposterous 6 games, 4 in a row at one point.

Lot of value in the 2.04-5-6 range, but yeah - that’s the risk. You definitely need to sell enough to get that 1.01. And the larger the league, the more difficult it is to be the worst.

Lot of picks though - best of luck!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Sold 2.02 and 2.09 right before the draft for a '23 1st. That will be 1.02 (and I have 1.01 as well).

Now that is a success story.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

A few weeks before that, I gave Jameson Williams for Ekeler and a 23 1st. This pick will be the 7,8 or 12 (playoff team, winning gets him the last pick)

That’s a hell of a return for Williams.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Mistakes: Traded for Calvin Ridley 10 days before the Gambling Suspension (Gave 1.05 & TJ Hock)

This one hurts.

 

[efactor]

A few weeks before that, I gave Jameson Williams for Ekeler and a 23 1st. This pick will be the 7,8 or 12 (playoff team, winning gets him the last pick)

That’s a hell of a return for Williams.

Really. Unless it's a salary cap league where you will lose Eckler soon or have to pay up to keep him, the guy getting Williams got a royal screwing.

Nicely done

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

was

Boom or bust, here we come, but I've enjoyed the process.

its funny - I’m 1-12 and a lock for the 1.01, but making all those deals and obtaining all the picks, and strategizing for 2023 rebuild around the core of youth I’ve obtained - it is really fun!

And there’s zero pressure to win. Wanting to lose as many games as possible is just entertaining. I even changed my team name to “the quest for 0-14” (I’ve since renamed it 1-13, because I beat someone. Fortunately it was someone who’s pick I have)

Please note. I set my best lineup every week, and came very close to winning 2 more games, but fortune favors the bold. Just saying, it wasn’t a tank - the commish even reached out to compliment me on “doing it the right way” - I simply sold off every burnable asset that could have helped me win more games this year. I’d dealt Huntley for Marcus Mariotta before he signed hoping to flip him, and Zay Jones had been on my team since the inaugural draft and started blowing up - so I immediately dealt them for Mattison+Bell.

When the BYE weeks hit my lineups were rough.

I have too much respect for the game to actually yank a season, but I have no issue with anyone running out a skeleton crew. I also got lucky that 2 other teams decided to sell/rebuild this year - and I had both of their 2023 1sts.

But yeah - I agree that the process is super entertaining, which I never expected 2 straight terrible losing seasons to be. If I went 1-13 in a redraft league I’d be committing seppuku.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

You definitely need to sell enough to get that 1.01. And the larger the league, the more difficult it is to be the worst.

Yeah that's the issue, the guys I didn't sell we're basically unsellable in my eyes. Mahomes, Lamb, Dj Moore (simply because he value tanked so much), Ken Walker (who suddenly became a major thing during the season).
I got Parris Campbell as a throw in on the Mixon trade and he became a thing unexpectedly.
Outside of these guys though, I have absolutely nothing and still lucked my way to more wins than I thought I would.
Sometimes you just gotta let the chips fall as they will.
Looking at the list of players I sold, I wouldn't want any of them back for what I got for them right now. Even if the picks I make turn out badly, I still feel like every move was the right decision in the moment.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Sometimes you just gotta let the chips fall as they will.
Looking at the list of players I sold, I wouldn't want any of them back for what I got for them right now. Even if the picks I make turn out badly, I still feel like every move was the right decision in the moment.

That’s definitely a big picture win then.

The end results have a lot to do with luck of the draw, but if you received appropriate value for your players, then in hindsight you still made the right moves.

A great example is a move you didn’t make in holding onto DJM. I tried to buy low on DJM and the owner wouldn’t budge on his demands - which I respect, because DJM is a stud WR in need of a QB. CAR has been unable to land one yet, but they will at some point. And if you’d sold for pennies on the dollar you’d spend the off-season kicking yourself instead of being comfortable with the move you didn’t make.

That’s a win for sure.

I dealt Mahomes as part of my rebuild. I ended up with CEH, Higgins, Z.Wilson, & 2x 2023 1sts.

Sold CEH after the bump early last year for my own 1st (1.01), and the other 2 firsts ended up being 1.04 and 1.09. So far the only part that hasn’t worked out is the Z.Wilson part - and while that sucks, I still feel like that was a great trade. Hindsight is always 20-20, and if “all” I got for Mahomes was Higgins & 3x 1sts I’m still ok with it. I wasn’t winning with Mahomes & a bunch of dudes about to turn 29-30.

You have to be happy with the day-of-trade value. You can’t cry over spilled milk. If it was a fair deal for you when you make a move, bottle that sentiment up & move on.

It’s a take-away I have to constantly remind myself of.

I have ETN because in early 2021 I’d dealt Evans + Carson + (I think a 2023 2nd from another team) for Pittman & a 2023 1st. Last off-season the ETN shareholder asked for elite WRs. I offered Pittman + Fuller for ETN & a 2nd, and he accepted. At the time it was a pretty risky deal, as ETN hadn’t yet been cleared for contact, but he’d been running & cutting, and looked pretty good. Also Robinson was still a Jag. And to my horror, Robinson started the season like he’d been shot out of a cannon. Fast forward to today, and Pittman’s value is a bit spotty with the Indy QB situation, and ETN looks like he might be a top 12 RB.

But the Pittman shareholder can’t have sour grapes over it - at the time of the deal he dumped a RB who’d never played a down, part of a RBBC, coming off of a serious injury and picked up a perceived top 12 WR.

Hindsight is worthless. All we can do in the moment is what we think is best. Maybe ask for advice on a FF forum & hope our community /friends will steer us right. And when ya make a decision, own it. If it goes well, you’re a genius. If it goes awry, you’re still a genius but ya had bad luck.

 

[-OZ-]

A few weeks before that, I gave Jameson Williams for Ekeler and a 23 1st. This pick will be the 7,8 or 12 (playoff team, winning gets him the last pick)

That’s a hell of a return for Williams.

A few weeks before that, I gave Jameson Williams for Ekeler and a 23 1st. This pick will be the 7,8 or 12 (playoff team, winning gets him the last pick)

That’s a hell of a return for Williams.

Really. Unless it's a salary cap league where you will lose Eckler soon or have to pay up to keep him, the guy getting Williams got a royal screwing.

Nicely done

Nothing like that, but at least two of us really like Jameson.

 

[efactor]

Hindsight is worthless. All we can do in the moment is what we think is best. Maybe ask for advice on a FF forum & hope our community /friends will steer us right. And when ya make a decision, own it. If it goes well, you’re a genius. If it goes awry, you’re still a genius but ya had bad luck.

Yep

Last year, I was making a trade in the middle of the season and had to balance out my roster by "throwing in" either St. Brown or Nico Collins. I decided on St Brown

Can finally laugh about it now. Well, maybe more of a half asssed chuckle

 

[eighsse2]

What's funny is how I (we, mostly, I would guess) like to look at what I sold and hope it loses value so that it "was a good trade". But once the asset is gone ... it really makes no difference whether it goes up or down or stays the same. If the player/pick becomes a dynasty top 10 overall player ... you don't own him. If he becomes barely rosterable ... you also don't own him. Just like stock trading too ... if you sell $1,000 worth of shares, and those same shares become worth $200 the next day, you probably celebrate; if they become worth $5,000, you're probably kicking yourself. But once you sold those shares, you no longer have them, no matter what happens to their value, so your net worth is 100% unchanged by its future movements (assuming you don't have any other shares of that security). The only difference it makes is to the hypthetical "what if I didn't sell?" question. Which doesn't matter. Because you did sell. But it can be so hard not to think that way.

 

[steelcityman]

Last year I was offered a teams entire 2022 rookie draft for an aging WR, and I was rebuilding. Got Hall, Olave, J Cook, A Pierce, Allegier, Doubs. So I am still a work in progress. Hall, Jav Williams, Herbert all on my IR now, when Saquon finally has a solid year, so my season sucks, got three 2nd rd picks for 2023. One team has five 1st rd picks. I will have a pick in the top 6, not locked into a position yet. I will be pounding WRs wherever I pick if its a good pick. I added guys like Calv Ridley, Bellinger, Otton, R Moore, Skye Moore, D Bell, T Marshall while the losses piled up, and dumped stiffs like Tonyan, Engram, Montgomery who I have had for 4 years and he was making me sick. Herbert at QB, so hopefully he can have healthy WRs in 2023. Its a cheap league, so I will stay in it, just frustrating at times.

If DPJ is a FA in Clev, Bell should get the chance to be the WR2 there, right? Or does Clev only see him as a WR3 type and bring in someone else?