What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Diggin for Dynasty TE's (1 Viewer)

loose circuits

Footballguy
There seems to be a plethora of dynasty sleeper tight ends out there this year. The tough part is figuring out which ones are actually going to have an impact. This list goes beyond the Robert Housler's and Jordan Cameron's of the world because they are already hyped. This discussion goes beyond the 1st few TE's in rookie drafts- Eifert, Ertz, Kelce, and to a lesser extent Jordan Reed & Gavin Escobar. There is no need to discuss these guys as you can find plenty of information on them. How about some guys that are flying under the radar? Basically looking for that Brandon Myers who will come out of no where and make a fantasy impact.

no specific order

Luke Stocker Tampa Bay Bucs I thought he had some potential early on in his career, but his rookie year seemed to be filled with injuries and his 2nd year he sat behind Dallas Clark. Entering his 3rd year he's got a starting gig locked up and the word is that Tampa likes him a lot more than we know. Is this the case of people getting impatient? Sometimes it takes a while for TE's to develop. I'd suggest an add in deep leagues if you have roster room.

Delanie Walker/Taylor Thompson Tenn Titans. Taylor Thompson is a converted college DL, but he has loads of potential. Delanie Walker just got paid. I took him early in one rookie draft at 4.02 and then watched has he slipped to the 5th in my other 2 drafts. Both of these guys could be low priced guys that could pay off down the road.

Dion Sims Miami Dolphins Many owners may have a bitter taste in their mouth because Michael Egnew flopped so badly. I know I was still holding out hope he would turn into Jeremichael Finley due to the system, coaches, and how badly Finley looked his rookie year. That doesn't appear to be the case, so they brought in Keller on only a one year deal. Rumor is that SIms may get more snaps than any other rookie Dolphin and his blocking skills are really good and Keller plays somewhat of a different position. I believe he's underrated in the passing game and could be worth a look as a potential TE2 down the road because he should be on the field a lot.

Chris Gragg Buffalo Bills This guy is an athletic freak in the mold of Aaron Hernandez. There isn't a lot of competition in Buffalo, so he should get on the field early if he can pick up the playbook otherwise we could see them rolling out a lot 10 personnel packages with their new found WR depth.

Levine Toilolo Atlanta Falcons This mammoth player has reportedly shown decent athleticism in rookie camp. He may be worth a shot, but you would have to sit on him for at least the next year while he rides the pine behind Gonzo. Not a bad mentor though. Do we think that the Falcons would be satisfied with him after this year? Chase Coffman has also made a push to resurrect his career playing behind Gonzo and he's not short on athleticism.

Mychal Riviera, Nick Kasa, David Ausberry I could make a case for each one of these guys to be the guy. As a result, I haven't rostered any of them despite a few being available on waivers. Any input on who is going to win this job, would be greatly appreciated. Kasa is similar to Taylor Thompson in that he's an athletic upside candidate without a lot of experience.

Vance McDonald San Fran 9ers Had this dude gone to a better situation, he would easily have been a late 3rd round pick in dynasty leagues. However, he's likely to play 2nd fiddle to Vernon for a while. I'm not denying the talent, but he could eat a roster spot for 2-3 as Vernon is signed through 2015

Adrien Robinson Giants He's worth a show with Myers playing on a one year deal. Another athletic project that could pay dividends if you have the patience. Have to think that TE's coach in New York will have him ready after this year.

Jeff Cumberland/Hayden Smith New York Jets Who is going to win this job? Will they be a fantasy factor? These are questions I have been unable to answer, so if anyone has any input out there feel free to contribute.

Luke WIlson Seattle He seems to be a recent sleeper pick, but how much upside is there? Zach Miller started to play much better in the playoffs last year and Anthony McCoy has had his moments. Enter Percy Harvin to go along with Golden Tate, Sid Rice, and Doug Baldwin not to mention Chris Harper. How much upside is here? Anything is possible with Pete Carrol, but I don't think I'd expect year 1 results.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

jonboltz

Footballguy
Gragg-- because he has the best opportunity to show you how talented he is off the bat; and you can free up the roster space quicker if he proves to be mediocre.

McDonald- because he is the most talented here, and while he won't get starter reps, should see the field enough to give you a glimpse. Davis is also 29, and has ~$4.5M salaries the following two years (none of it guaranteed).

 

Warhogs

Footballguy
If Finley doesn't produce this year Green Bay may part ways with him before next season. I would watch the backup TE in Green Bay as one may be a year away from an opportunity.

 

Warhogs

Footballguy
If Finley doesn't produce this year Green Bay may part ways with him before next season. I would watch the backup TE in Green Bay as one may be a year away from an opportunity.
good call on that, but is it Stoneburner, Williams, or Bostick?
Tough call right now and unless you have very huge rosters I would not add any of them at this point but monitor the situation until someone seems to emerge as the backup to Finley. I think you can still add that player rather cheaply later on.

 

jonboltz

Footballguy
If Finley doesn't produce this year Green Bay may part ways with him before next season. I would watch the backup TE in Green Bay as one may be a year away from an opportunity.
If Finley isn't able to produce this year, I wouldn't bet on a guy with less talent producing the following year.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
There seems to be a plethora of dynasty sleeper tight ends out there this year. The tough part is figuring out which ones are actually going to have an impact. This list goes beyond the Robert Housler's and Jordan Cameron's of the world because they are already hyped. This discussion goes beyond the 1st few TE's in rookie drafts- Eifert, Ertz, Kelce, and to a lesser extent Jordan Reed & Gavin Escobar. There is no need to discuss these guys as you can find plenty of information on them. How about some guys that are flying under the radar? Basically looking for that Brandon Myers who will come out of no where and make a fantasy impact.

no specific order

Luke Stocker Tampa Bay Bucs I thought he had some potential early on in his career, but his rookie year seemed to be filled with injuries and his 2nd year he sat behind Dallas Clark. Entering his 3rd year he's got a starting gig locked up and the word is that Tampa likes him a lot more than we know. Is this the case of people getting impatient? Sometimes it takes a while for TE's to develop. I'd suggest an add in deep leagues if you have roster room.

Delanie Walker/Taylor Thompson Tenn Titans. Taylor Thompson is a converted college DL, but he has loads of potential. Delanie Walker just got paid. I took him early in one rookie draft at 4.02 and then watched has he slipped to the 5th in my other 2 drafts. Both of these guys could be low priced guys that could pay off down the road.

Dion Sims Miami Dolphins Many owners may have a bitter taste in their mouth because Michael Egnew flopped so badly. I know I was still holding out hope he would turn into Jeremichael Finley due to the system, coaches, and how badly Finley looked his rookie year. That doesn't appear to be the case, so they brought in Keller on only a one year deal. Rumor is that SIms may get more snaps than any other rookie Dolphin and his blocking skills are really good and Keller plays somewhat of a different position. I believe he's underrated in the passing game and could be worth a look as a potential TE2 down the road because he should be on the field a lot.

Chris Gragg Buffalo Bills This guy is an athletic freak in the mold of Aaron Hernandez. There isn't a lot of competition in Buffalo, so he should get on the field early if he can pick up the playbook otherwise we could see them rolling out a lot 10 personnel packages with their new found WR depth.

Levine Toilolo Atlanta Falcons This mammoth player has reportedly shown decent athleticism in rookie camp. He may be worth a shot, but you would have to sit on him for at least the next year while he rides the pine behind Gonzo. Not a bad mentor though. Do we think that the Falcons would be satisfied with him after this year? Chase Coffman has also made a push to resurrect his career playing behind Gonzo and he's not short on athleticism.

Mychal Riviera, Nick Kasa, David Ausberry I could make a case for each one of these guys to be the guy. As a result, I haven't rostered any of them despite a few being available on waivers. Any input on who is going to win this job, would be greatly appreciated. Kasa is similar to Taylor Thompson in that he's an athletic upside candidate without a lot of experience.

Vance McDonald San Fran 9ers Had this dude gone to a better situation, he would easily have been a late 3rd round pick in dynasty leagues. However, he's likely to play 2nd fiddle to Vernon for a while. I'm not denying the talent, but he could eat a roster spot for 2-3 as Vernon is signed through 2015

Adrien Robinson Giants He's worth a show with Myers playing on a one year deal. Another athletic project that could pay dividends if you have the patience. Have to think that TE's coach in New York will have him ready after this year.

Jeff Cumberland/Hayden Smith New York Jets Who is going to win this job? Will they be a fantasy factor? These are questions I have been unable to answer, so if anyone has any input out there feel free to contribute.

Luke WIlson Seattle He seems to be a recent sleeper pick, but how much upside is there? Zach Miller started to play much better in the playoffs last year and Anthony McCoy has had his moments. Enter Percy Harvin to go along with Golden Tate, Sid Rice, and Doug Baldwin not to mention Chris Harper. How much upside is here? Anything is possible with Pete Carrol, but I don't think I'd expect year 1 results.
Stocker, whatever. not that talented and Sullivan's offense doesn't feature TE.

Walker/Thompson - Thompson has a classic story of a breakout TE in the conversion from DL and everyone going gaga over his size and natural ball skills. Still a ways away from contributing. Worth monitoring. Walker looked like a breakout candidate in the past, but forgot how to catch the ball last year. We'll see. Would have been much more optimistic about him a few years ago.

Sims - big fan. see him in the crumpler/allen mold but not quite as talented. Still an underrated passcatcher - was #4 in Michigan Mr. Basketball voting coming out of HS, and his ball skills are excellent for a big bulky TE. Tough to bring down too. Very underrated in rookie drafts.

Gragg - Extremely intriguing. converted WR and looks the part. best athlete at the TE position in this draft by far and BUF looking to move him around the formation and run a dynamic offense. Trying to stash him in my TE premium leagues. Needs to stay healthy.

Toilolo - not a fan of gangly TEs, but ATL using a 4th rounder means he might get a shot to replace Gonzo. not optimistic here.

OAK TE - Kasa is being groomed as a blocking TE (and he has terrible hands). Rivera is solid as a receiver and should be monitoring. Ausberry has Vernon Davis flashes, but OAK seems reluctant to commit to him... will be watching this one closely in camp as both wilson and flynn seem like types who will thrive more in short/intermediate passing game.

McDonald - Screams Scheffler to me, big and a great athlete, but inconsistent hands. Also situation is meh. no thanks.

Robinson - got interested when Reese called him the "JPP of TEs" but it sounds like they are turning him into a blocking TE.

NYJ TE - There have been a few rave reviews about him and like Thompson, has the kind of story that could portend big things. I'll be listening for news on him. Cumberland is a decent receiver, but really just a guy.

Willson - wasnt on my radar at all before the draft, but he's a size/speed guy, impressed in rookie minicamp, and SEA seems to have an eye for talent. worth an add while buzz is building

 

cstu

Footballguy
Walker/Thompson - Thompson has a classic story of a breakout TE in the conversion from DL and everyone going gaga over his size and natural ball skills. Still a ways away from contributing. Worth monitoring. Walker looked like a breakout candidate in the past, but forgot how to catch the ball last year. We'll see. Would have been much more optimistic about him a few years ago.
I'm high on Thompson's pure talent, he's probably the best TE stash at the moment since he's worth next to nothing. The problem for him is that Walker's contract is guaranteed the next two years so if he does become fantasy relevant it probably won't be until 2015. That's a long time to wait on a guy who is no sure thing so he's only viable in league's with deep rosters.

 

bonesman

Footballguy
Great thread and OP, tons of decent options there

Dion Sims Miami Dolphins Many owners may have a bitter taste in their mouth because Michael Egnew flopped so badly. I know I was still holding out hope he would turn into Jeremichael Finley due to the system, coaches, and how badly Finley looked his rookie year. That doesn't appear to be the case, so they brought in Keller on only a one year deal. Rumor is that SIms may get more snaps than any other rookie Dolphin and his blocking skills are really good and Keller plays somewhat of a different position. I believe he's underrated in the passing game and could be worth a look as a potential TE2 down the road because he should be on the field a lot.
Dion might be the better gamble for dynasty leagues, but I would guess that the H-back Charles Clay would be the first to get an opportunity if Keller can't pull his weight.

 

Carter_Can_Fly

Footballguy
James Casey (28 years old) Philly is someone to keep an eye on for an out of no where break out performance.....

Chip Kelly is an offensive guru and has taken a liking to Casey. Philly had Casey listed as a FB last year and in that roll caught 34 passes for 330 yards and 3 tds.

Chip Kelly said this about Casey.... Kelly has plans for TE Casey: The Eagles quickly moved to sign Texans fullback/tight end James Casey in free agency, and coach Chip Kelly quickly explained why he liked him. "Extremely versatile, and one of the qualities we really liked about him," Kelly said, talking up his former work as a baseball player and lining up at six different positions while at Rice University. " ... [A]s a coach it's almost like you kind of got a new toy when there's a lot of different spots you can put him in because he's got a background in it and he's extremely smart, extremely intelligent. ... [A] guy that can really come into our program and have a big effect on what we're going to do."

 

nirad3

Footballguy
Gavin Escobar, anyone? Cowboys are already planning on more two-TE sets, and Escobar fits the bill as the pass-catching 2nd TE. To boot, Jason Witten is 31 and has had a few significant injuries.

 

werdnoynek

Footballguy
Ladarius Green.

Green is sitting behind an often ailing Gates who seems to have a foot out the door IMO. The chargers picked up John Phillips from the Cowboys, so now he has to contend with Phillips and Rosario to contend with... not exactly world beaters.

I'd look for Green to start getting more work this season. He's a big, fast (4.45 forty) TE who had a pretty solid senior season at LA Lafayette. His ceiling is very high like Thompson and Robinson with a very good chance at playing time this season. A great dynasty stash with HUGE potential.

 

saintfool

Dead sexy
Gavin Escobar, anyone? Cowboys are already planning on more two-TE sets, and Escobar fits the bill as the pass-catching 2nd TE. To boot, Jason Witten is 31 and has had a few significant injuries.
I like Escobar's chances. He's not much of a locker by all accounts but what makes him interesting to me is how vocal Jerry was about their efforts to run two-TE sets for a couple of years now. they couldn't with Bennet because he was a lunkhead. there wasn't a suitable #2 TE to pair with witten. now, with escobar, they have that receiving TE. i think witten can still be very productive for a couple of seasons but i really like escobar's upside here. the cowboys don't have anything special at #3 WR and they burned a R2 pick on him. definite "Buy" from me.

 

Don Quixote

Footballguy
Good list. I was going to add Ladarius Green as someone else already did. I don't think Gates has too much time left, and Green impressed me in college. I've got him stashed in a league where I own Gates.

...I'm also intrigued by the player that Chad Parsons currently has ranked #26 in his dynasty TE rankings. If he's invisible, he's probably going to be hard to tackle.

 

jonboltz

Footballguy
Gavin Escobar, anyone? Cowboys are already planning on more two-TE sets, and Escobar fits the bill as the pass-catching 2nd TE. To boot, Jason Witten is 31 and has had a few significant injuries.
Escobar was already de facto excluded in the OP, but would be the obvious top target above those listed here.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
Gavin Escobar, anyone? Cowboys are already planning on more two-TE sets, and Escobar fits the bill as the pass-catching 2nd TE. To boot, Jason Witten is 31 and has had a few significant injuries.
I like Escobar's chances. He's not much of a locker by all accounts but what makes him interesting to me is how vocal Jerry was about their efforts to run two-TE sets for a couple of years now. they couldn't with Bennet because he was a lunkhead. there wasn't a suitable #2 TE to pair with witten. now, with escobar, they have that receiving TE. i think witten can still be very productive for a couple of seasons but i really like escobar's upside here. the cowboys don't have anything special at #3 WR and they burned a R2 pick on him. definite "Buy" from me.
Why hasn't Bennett's lunkheadedness kept him from playing well for the Giants or garnering a nice deal to start for the Bears? This is the 3rd second round pick the Cowboys have spent on a second tight end since 2006 (the other was Fasano).

As far as Escobar, well, it's pretty well-documented that I'm not a fan. I know Fauria has durability issues, but from a tactical standpoint, he's not that different from Escobar. Ryan Otten (Jacksonville) isn't either. Both went undrafted. Imagine if Jimmy Graham had no physical edge and could do very little after the catch. You're now picturing Escobar. Here's my scouting report.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
Ladarius Green.

Green is sitting behind an often ailing Gates who seems to have a foot out the door IMO. The chargers picked up John Phillips from the Cowboys, so now he has to contend with Phillips and Rosario to contend with... not exactly world beaters.

I'd look for Green to start getting more work this season. He's a big, fast (4.45 forty) TE who had a pretty solid senior season at LA Lafayette. His ceiling is very high like Thompson and Robinson with a very good chance at playing time this season. A great dynasty stash with HUGE potential.
I wish Green looked like more of a natural when it comes to hands/ball skills because the physical attributes are certainly there, as you've pointed out. There's also been surprisingly little buzz about his development one way or the other. I'm waiting to hear/see something, anything out of SD about him. This regime didn't draft him, so I would love to hear a vote of confidence from McCoy/Telesco before I invest.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
Garrett Graham? Owen Daniels is 30 and has suffered numerous injuries over his career.
I like the kid Ryan Griffin they drafted on the third day this year, but Graham looks ready to take over if they re-sign him next year. Daniels is due 4.5M in 2014 so he could be a cap cut. In general, the HOU TE situation is a good one to watch for sleeper potential. good call.

 

saintfool

Dead sexy
Gavin Escobar, anyone? Cowboys are already planning on more two-TE sets, and Escobar fits the bill as the pass-catching 2nd TE. To boot, Jason Witten is 31 and has had a few significant injuries.
I like Escobar's chances. He's not much of a locker by all accounts but what makes him interesting to me is how vocal Jerry was about their efforts to run two-TE sets for a couple of years now. they couldn't with Bennet because he was a lunkhead. there wasn't a suitable #2 TE to pair with witten. now, with escobar, they have that receiving TE. i think witten can still be very productive for a couple of seasons but i really like escobar's upside here. the cowboys don't have anything special at #3 WR and they burned a R2 pick on him. definite "Buy" from me.
Why hasn't Bennett's lunkheadedness kept him from playing well for the Giants or garnering a nice deal to start for the Bears? This is the 3rd second round pick the Cowboys have spent on a second tight end since 2006 (the other was Fasano).

As far as Escobar, well, it's pretty well-documented that I'm not a fan. I know Fauria has durability issues, but from a tactical standpoint, he's not that different from Escobar. Ryan Otten (Jacksonville) isn't either. Both went undrafted. Imagine if Jimmy Graham had no physical edge and could do very little after the catch. You're now picturing Escobar. Here's my scouting report.
there wasn't anyone ahead of him really in NYG. he's a good blocker and, obviously, can catch. i just wouldn't conflate his production given the plum situation he was in or the ability of the Bears to write a big check with anything. NYG could have kept him after all but didn't. maybe the light finally came on last year?

anyway, regardless of what escobar's ability is, it looks like he is in a good situation for the reasons i mentioned.

 

loose circuits

Footballguy
I left out Escobar because he's been drafted in the 3rd round of each of my dynasty drafts. Ladarius Green was in the same exact situation last year and remains rostered in all my leagues. These guys are 5th round flier type guys and waiver wire adds you can get on the cheap.

Good discussion though fellas.

Lets keep the Marty B discussion to his thread though. This is more about adds for deep dynasty leagues...

 

nirad3

Footballguy
dang reading skills again. :shrug:

oh, and hey there sigmund.... been a long time since that crazy Texas Testosterone Festival "experts" draft... :cool:

Gavin Escobar, anyone? Cowboys are already planning on more two-TE sets, and Escobar fits the bill as the pass-catching 2nd TE. To boot, Jason Witten is 31 and has had a few significant injuries.
Escobar was already de facto excluded in the OP, but would be the obvious top target above those listed here.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
I left out Escobar because he's been drafted in the 3rd round of each of my dynasty drafts. Ladarius Green was in the same exact situation last year and remains rostered in all my leagues. These guys are 5th round flier type guys and waiver wire adds you can get on the cheap.

Good discussion though fellas.

Lets keep the Marty B discussion to his thread though. This is more about adds for deep dynasty leagues...
I do think that how Dallas has done developing recent TE draft picks is relevant to the discussion of Escobar, but a good point

 

cstu

Footballguy
Ladarius Green.

Green is sitting behind an often ailing Gates who seems to have a foot out the door IMO. The chargers picked up John Phillips from the Cowboys, so now he has to contend with Phillips and Rosario to contend with... not exactly world beaters.

I'd look for Green to start getting more work this season. He's a big, fast (4.45 forty) TE who had a pretty solid senior season at LA Lafayette. His ceiling is very high like Thompson and Robinson with a very good chance at playing time this season. A great dynasty stash with HUGE potential.
Got him in every league also. Not really that cheap since he'll likely cost a 2nd rounder but worth it IMO.

 

werdnoynek

Footballguy
Ladarius Green.

Green is sitting behind an often ailing Gates who seems to have a foot out the door IMO. The chargers picked up John Phillips from the Cowboys, so now he has to contend with Phillips and Rosario to contend with... not exactly world beaters.

I'd look for Green to start getting more work this season. He's a big, fast (4.45 forty) TE who had a pretty solid senior season at LA Lafayette. His ceiling is very high like Thompson and Robinson with a very good chance at playing time this season. A great dynasty stash with HUGE potential.
Got him in every league also. Not really that cheap since he'll likely cost a 2nd rounder but worth it IMO.
:hifive:

 

EBF

Footballguy
I think Escobar is a pretty good choice if you want a developmental prospect for cheap. He was the 11th skill prospect drafted in the NFL draft, but routinely falls into the 30-40 range of rookie drafts. He looks pretty solid to me and all of the scouts like him. Tall frame with a huge catch radius and great hands. Not an explosive athlete, but fluid and efficient. A good guy to stash for a couple years.

In terms of the other rookies, I watch a lot of Stanford games and was never too impressed with Toilolo. He's almost too tall for his own good. His height makes him a unique weapon on fade routes, but I think he probably lacks the overall mobility to really thrive in the NFL. I'm also a little bit down on Ertz. He's okay, but I don't like him at his draft slot.

In terms of veterans, I think Pitta is going to be a solid option for a couple years. Keller has a chance to be useful as a stopgap solution and could come cheap.

 

loose circuits

Footballguy
I think Escobar is a pretty good choice if you want a developmental prospect for cheap. He was the 11th skill prospect drafted in the NFL draft, but routinely falls into the 30-40 range of rookie drafts. He looks pretty solid to me and all of the scouts like him. Tall frame with a huge catch radius and great hands. Not an explosive athlete, but fluid and efficient. A good guy to stash for a couple years. In terms of the other rookies, I watch a lot of Stanford games and was never too impressed with Toilolo. He's almost too tall for his own good. His height makes him a unique weapon on fade routes, but I think he probably lacks the overall mobility to really thrive in the NFL. I'm also a little bit down on Ertz. He's okay, but I don't like him at his draft slot. In terms of veterans, I think Pitta is going to be a solid option for a couple years. Keller has a chance to be useful as a stopgap solution and could come cheap.
seems obvious that your definition of cheap and mine are completely different. Escobar is expensive in my eyes at his 3rd round price tag while most people have Pitta as borderline TE1 option. Keller is also a little more pricey then the guys I am talking about who could be had for next to nothing. I'd say Keller's outlook would be similar to Delanie Walker (assuming he holds onto the ball) while his price tag is much higher despite a lot of risk
 

EBF

Footballguy
Agreed that Pitta isn't really cheap. He could be undervalued though depending on the owner. Especially if the guy already has a Gronk/Graham/Hernandez/Witten on his roster.

As for Escobar, I think a late 3rd/early 4th or a future 3rd qualifies as cheap. Your odds of getting a starting caliber player with a pick like that are extremely slim.

To get a top 50 overall draft pick for that price tag is a pretty good deal, IMO.

 

GeeYouknit

Footballguy
Virgil Green anyone? Bad situation now that Welker has come to town but could be worth a stash a couple years down the road

Garrett Graham? Owen Daniels is 30 and has suffered numerous injuries over his career.
I really like Garrett's outlook for the coming year, good pick here. :thumbup:

 

Don Quixote

Footballguy
Agreed that Pitta isn't really cheap. He could be undervalued though depending on the owner. Especially if the guy already has a Gronk/Graham/Hernandez/Witten on his roster.

As for Escobar, I think a late 3rd/early 4th or a future 3rd qualifies as cheap. Your odds of getting a starting caliber player with a pick like that are extremely slim.

To get a top 50 overall draft pick for that price tag is a pretty good deal, IMO.
Escobar can be had pretty cheap. I just drafted him at 5.6 in a Zealots PPR league. I thought he was a great deal at that spot.

 

loose circuits

Footballguy
Agreed that Pitta isn't really cheap. He could be undervalued though depending on the owner. Especially if the guy already has a Gronk/Graham/Hernandez/Witten on his roster. As for Escobar, I think a late 3rd/early 4th or a future 3rd qualifies as cheap. Your odds of getting a starting caliber player with a pick like that are extremely slim. To get a top 50 overall draft pick for that price tag is a pretty good deal, IMO.
Escobar can be had pretty cheap. I just drafted him at 5.6 in a Zealots PPR league. I thought he was a great deal at that spot.
that is surprising, great value. Congrats
 

loose circuits

Footballguy
Agreed that Pitta isn't really cheap. He could be undervalued though depending on the owner. Especially if the guy already has a Gronk/Graham/Hernandez/Witten on his roster. As for Escobar, I think a late 3rd/early 4th or a future 3rd qualifies as cheap. Your odds of getting a starting caliber player with a pick like that are extremely slim. To get a top 50 overall draft pick for that price tag is a pretty good deal, IMO.
on the 3rd/4th I'd rather take my chance on Fuller, Stills, Denard Robinson, etc and then grab a few of these cheap TEs later
 

EBF

Footballguy
Agreed that Pitta isn't really cheap. He could be undervalued though depending on the owner. Especially if the guy already has a Gronk/Graham/Hernandez/Witten on his roster. As for Escobar, I think a late 3rd/early 4th or a future 3rd qualifies as cheap. Your odds of getting a starting caliber player with a pick like that are extremely slim. To get a top 50 overall draft pick for that price tag is a pretty good deal, IMO.
on the 3rd/4th I'd rather take my chance on Fuller, Stills, Denard Robinson, etc and then grab a few of these cheap TEs later
In general, I'd rather have a solid 2nd round TE than a longshot 5th-7th round RB/WR. The hit rate on 5th+ rounders is pretty much negligible.

At some point the higher odds of getting a good player offset the lower positional value.

In recent years we've seen Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, Daniels, Pitta, Witten, Finley, Cooley, and F Davis emerge out of rounds 2-4 of the NFL draft to become valuable FF commodities. This year offers several guys like Reed, Kelce, Escobar, and McDonald who have similar potential at a pretty modest ADP.

 

Rhythmdoctor

Footballguy
Good thread! Appreciate all the input so far. I'm hoping to nab Escobar with the 30th pick in a rookie draft. Im 3 picks away.

Question for whoever wants to answer:

At the 30 spot in a dynasty rookie draft, who would you prefer? Escobar, Marquise Goodwin or Charles Johnson. Those are the guys Im considering. .5/1/1.5 ppr.

 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
Good thread! Appreciate all the input so far. I'm hoping to nab Escobar with the 30th pick in a rookie draft. Im 3 picks away. Question for whoever wants to answer:At the 30 spot in a dynasty rookie draft, who would you prefer? Escobar, Marquise Goodwin or Charles Johnson. Those are the guys Im considering. .5/1/1.5 ppr.
Escobar without a doubt in 1.5 PPR. Johnson after him, with Goodwin not even on the radar compared to these guys.
 

Rhythmdoctor

Footballguy
Good thread! Appreciate all the input so far. I'm hoping to nab Escobar with the 30th pick in a rookie draft. Im 3 picks away. Question for whoever wants to answer:At the 30 spot in a dynasty rookie draft, who would you prefer? Escobar, Marquise Goodwin or Charles Johnson. Those are the guys Im considering. .5/1/1.5 ppr.
Escobar without a doubt in 1.5 PPR. Johnson after him, with Goodwin not even on the radar compared to these guys.
Thanks for the input. I agree with Escobar and thats who is in que but I actually have Goodwin ranked next if not based on NFL draft position alone. Would love your thoughts on the two WRs. Boyce is available too but Im not as high on him as others are.
 

nirad3

Footballguy
Good thread! Appreciate all the input so far. I'm hoping to nab Escobar with the 30th pick in a rookie draft. Im 3 picks away.Question for whoever wants to answer:At the 30 spot in a dynasty rookie draft, who would you prefer? Escobar, Marquise Goodwin or Charles Johnson. Those are the guys Im considering. .5/1/1.5 ppr.
Escobar without a doubt in 1.5 PPR. Johnson after him, with Goodwin not even on the radar compared to these guys.
Thanks for the input. I agree with Escobar and thats who is in que but I actually have Goodwin ranked next if not based on NFL draft position alone. Would love your thoughts on the two WRs. Boyce is available too but Im not as high on him as others are.
Yo B - definitely go Escobar. I do like Goodwin as a sleeper but Escobar is the value there.

 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
Good thread! Appreciate all the input so far. I'm hoping to nab Escobar with the 30th pick in a rookie draft. Im 3 picks away. Question for whoever wants to answer:At the 30 spot in a dynasty rookie draft, who would you prefer? Escobar, Marquise Goodwin or Charles Johnson. Those are the guys Im considering. .5/1/1.5 ppr.
Escobar without a doubt in 1.5 PPR. Johnson after him, with Goodwin not even on the radar compared to these guys.
Thanks for the input. I agree with Escobar and thats who is in que but I actually have Goodwin ranked next if not based on NFL draft position alone. Would love your thoughts on the two WRs. Boyce is available too but Im not as high on him as others are.
I like Johnson because he is a great athletic talent that a great front office took the risk on, and playing time should be opening up in that receiving corps in the next couple years. Definitely the high upside pick if you don't like Escobar. Goodwin I'm just not a fan of at all, I don't think he's a natural WR. I liked Graham more last year, and he's got a year's head start on Goodwin with similar elite speed.
 

jonboltz

Footballguy
loose circuits said:
EBF said:
Agreed that Pitta isn't really cheap. He could be undervalued though depending on the owner. Especially if the guy already has a Gronk/Graham/Hernandez/Witten on his roster. As for Escobar, I think a late 3rd/early 4th or a future 3rd qualifies as cheap. Your odds of getting a starting caliber player with a pick like that are extremely slim. To get a top 50 overall draft pick for that price tag is a pretty good deal, IMO.
on the 3rd/4th I'd rather take my chance on Fuller, Stills, Denard Robinson, etc and then grab a few of these cheap TEs later
I'd much rather go for the more talented player, even at a lower positional value. Escobar went high enough that he will be on the field this year a fair amount, and you'll have a chance to evaluate him and decide to sink or swim.

Most 5th-7th round WR/RBs aren't going to see the field often, so you'll probably redshirt them a year without knowing what to expect from them.

 

loose circuits

Footballguy
Agreed that Pitta isn't really cheap. He could be undervalued though depending on the owner. Especially if the guy already has a Gronk/Graham/Hernandez/Witten on his roster. As for Escobar, I think a late 3rd/early 4th or a future 3rd qualifies as cheap. Your odds of getting a starting caliber player with a pick like that are extremely slim. To get a top 50 overall draft pick for that price tag is a pretty good deal, IMO.
on the 3rd/4th I'd rather take my chance on Fuller, Stills, Denard Robinson, etc and then grab a few of these cheap TEs later
I'd much rather go for the more talented player, even at a lower positional value. Escobar went high enough that he will be on the field this year a fair amount, and you'll have a chance to evaluate him and decide to sink or swim. Most 5th-7th round WR/RBs aren't going to see the field often, so you'll probably redshirt them a year without knowing what to expect from them.
the bust rate for 2nd-3rd round TE's is pretty high as well depending on what you consider a success. Does anyone remember Joe Klopfenstein, Fasano, Scheffler, Leonard Pope, David Thomas, Ben Troupe, Kris Wilson, Bennie Joppru, LJ Smith, Teyo Johnson, Mike Seidman, Doug Jolley, Matt Schobel, Chris Baker, Sean Brewer, Shad Meier, Erron Kinney, Dustin Lyman, Ed Dickson, Tony Moeaki, etc...some of them may have teased us, but for the most part they were failures and never lived up to hype. Guess Moeaki and Dickson still have a chance... For every Jimmy Graham or Gronk, there was plenty of riff raff... The problem with TE's is you end up dropping them before they get to where they need to be. Just look at Rob Housler and Jordan Cameron this year. They were off/on waiver wires in my leagues a couple times. That is what could happen with Escobar if he ever lives up to his draft position. While guys like Fuller, Charles Johnson, and Stills may be close to having an impact in high octane offenses if the cards break right...

 
Last edited by a moderator:

EBF

Footballguy
While guys like Fuller, Charles Johnson, and Stills may be close to having an impact in high octane offenses if the cards break right...
Which they almost certainly won't, since the success rate for 6th/7th round WRs is something like 5%.

 

squistion

Footballguy
cstu, on 18 May 2013 - 15:04, said:cstu, on 18 May 2013 - 15:04, said:

squistion, on 18 May 2013 - 14:53, said:squistion, on 18 May 2013 - 14:53, said:

EBF, on 18 May 2013 - 14:36, said:EBF, on 18 May 2013 - 14:36, said:

loose circuits, on 18 May 2013 - 14:23, said:loose circuits, on 18 May 2013 - 14:23, said:While guys like Fuller, Charles Johnson, and Stills may be close to having an impact in high octane offenses if the cards break right...
Which they almost certainly won't, since the success rate for 6th/7th round WRs is something like 5%.
:rolleyes:
What's with the eye rolling? It's a fact.
Yes, it is a fact if you just look at probabilities. Good way to save time if you don't want to bother to research players taken after a certain round. But if you only look at draft "pedigree" and cavalierly dismiss a player because of their draft slot you might miss out on players like Alfred Morris or Marques Colston (there are more but those two came to mind off the top of my head).My point is that probabilities are fine if you picking players' names out of a hat and know nothing else about them. However they really don't mean that much if you are looking at individual players and their circumstances on a case-by-case basis.For instance, instead of just saying "he was drafted in the 6th round so he is not worth a roster spot" (or even worth considering) I look at context and see if there is some value here that others may have has missed. That is how I got Morris in 3 leagues last year. I didn't just cross him off my list because the probability of success was historically only 5%. I looked at the overall context (which Bloom went over extensively in a discussion with EBF In another thread) and decided that he probably wasn't your standard RB taken in the 6th round and grabbed him in as many leagues as I could.And yes, taking players from these rounds normally doesn't work out, but just to say "drafted in the 6th round, 95% bust rate probability, end of story," I find it to be somewhat arrogant and presumptuous (even though it is statistically valid). I just don't buy the mindset that probabilities are always that predictive when applied to individual players, devoid of context.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

cstu

Footballguy
I'm not saying to ignore players taken late but you shouldn't over-estimate your ability either simply because you've hit on some. Personally, I think it's rather easy to knock out about half the players taken in the 6th and 7th as guys with little chance of contributing in fantasy. That's increases your 5% hit rate to 10%. Then as camp opens you can start to see which guys aren't really NFL talent, you can probably double your hit rate to 20% with the guys that are left.

Even after training camp you're probably going to be wrong on a 6th/7th round pick you like 80% of the time.

 

loose circuits

Footballguy
Bottom line is with any 3rd or 4th round rookie pick, you are gonna be wrong much more than you are right. I agree with the poster who said you need to evaluate each case on its individual basis. Isn't that why we are here?

 

UKColt

Footballguy
Not a deep rookie pick or a total sleeper per se, but Coby Fleener is one that I'm targetting in all my dynasty leagues. People are down on him because of a 'poor' rookie season in comparison to Dwayne Allen, so the price you can get him for is very good at the minute.

The Colts have bought in his old OC who knows how to use him effectively and the reports from OTAs are that he is playing superbly. They have also made it clear that they will use him more out of the slot this year, which should only help his fantasy numbers.

Pagano yesterday mentioned him specifically and predicted him to catch "double" the number of passes he caught last year. He caught 26 last year, but only played in 12 games. If he is healthy, that'd put him on pace for 60-70 catches and 600+ yards. I also expect his TDs to see a bump as well, as he was off the field alot in the RZ last year, and Hamilton loves him as a RZ target.

In his final college year he only caught 34 passes but they were worth 667 and 10 TDs.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top