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Dillon Traded! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gildawg
- Start date
mighty thor
Footballguy
I'm not really sure this hurts Brady. They had some problems in the red zone last year because teams did not have to respect their running attack. Dillon may end up making them more successful in the red zone and may help Brady get a few easy play action type Touch downs close in.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
In the Pats two SB years (of the last three), they rushed the ball 473 times in each season (bizarre coincidence). If Dillon were to get 280 carries and average 3.9 yards per carry (his career low), you're looking at 1,120 yards rushing. More likely he gets closer to 4.0-4.1 YPC with potentially 300-310 carries (this would be upside IMHO) which implies 1,270 yards.The Pats haven't been particularly prolific in terms of rushing touchdowns, nor has Dillon for much of his career (although he played on some horrible teams). I would say that 7-9 touchdowns is probably a reasonable starting point for discussion.
So to recap, we're looking at a preliminary high/low of:
1100 yards rushing, 7 rushing TDs, and probably another 150 yards receiving = 167 fantasy points
1270 yards rushing, 9 rushing TDs, and about 220 yards receiving = 203 fantasy pointsSo you're looking at Dillon projecting as a mid to low RB2 in 12 team league, looking back at the last 5 years scoring averages for RBs using the FBG scoring system.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Only becuase 30 year old malcontents aren't eligible for the draft...
Colin
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
It's a good time to live in New England right now 
BUTThurs, Oct. 21 Yanks beat BoSox in game 7 (A-ROD 2 HR)Sunday, Oct. 24 Jets beat Patriots in week 7 (Dillon 20 carries, 39 yards)
BUTThurs, Oct. 21 Yanks beat BoSox in game 7 (A-ROD 2 HR)Sunday, Oct. 24 Jets beat Patriots in week 7 (Dillon 20 carries, 39 yards)
buck naked
Footballguy
Wood, you rule.Very nice. Without any information to back it up, that's about where I had his numbers on this team in my mind.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
That's what I meant to say...good analysis J.Receiving numbers would probably stay pretty low I would assume. Not going to see the 298 he posted in 2002.
Trying to think of some other circumstances of a big fish in a little pond going to a star team.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Wood,I agree with your projections to a point, but there is a major X-factor here. When has Dillon ever been featured on a decent Bengals team. The best team he has been on was his rookie year, and if you amortize his stats as a starter over a 16 week span from that year (I think started like 10 games that year), he would have been a 1600 yard rusher. I think barring injury or insanity, he will have the number of TDs you predict, but my high would be about 1400+ yards rushing.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Grbac to the Ravens is a decent comparison. It's difficult with Dillon because I'm not sure how to rate his talent. Grbac was almost the opposite of Dillon--he was coming off his career year before he moved to Baltimore.Great RB to a Great team without a good RB? Anyone else have anything out there (If only Drinen was around).
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Insoxicated
I gotta agree here....As a Pats fan I'm VERY happy with this move. Dillon, having a chance at getting a ring, should provide solid skill to New England...much better than they'd get with that 2nd rounder anyways. Plus we still have two first rounders, and a 2nd rounder to snag up Defense and O-Line talent. I wouldn't mind seeing NE go for another young, fast WR prospect at some point in this draft as well....
David Yudkin
Footballguy
You pretty much described ASmith, 2001 with a just a smidge fewer TD:
And he ranked as the #9 RB with 212 points. You might be underselling Dillon. Then again, RB scoring has gone up since then . . . 212 points scored would have been the #12 RB in 2003.
nathanbalboa
Footballguy
Wow, hearing comments like this make me think that all Dillon owners should trade him now while his value is high.This is a good team move for the Patriots, he will help them win games. That doesn't necessarily translate into good fantasy numbers. I really don't see him putting up numbers much better than A. Smith. Dillon has been disappointing for awhile now and there's no reason to think he's going to ever be a fantasy stud again.About 1000 yards with 4 td's seems likely. He'll be a top 30 back, but won't be the kind of guy you win a league with having him as your number 2 back. He's a solid number 3/bench back, but nothing more. Trade him now while people expect him to be a top 15 back.
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mighty thor
Footballguy
A little similar to Chuck Muncie Joining the great pass happy San Diego Chargers in the 1980's.
Excellent summary!For guestimation purposes I had S. Alexander penciled in for the pts RB - sharing carries almost evenly with K. Faulk. Now that Dillon is in the house, I'll shift carries to him (he's aproven commodity ... or so I heard) - probably 300 carries with a 4.00 average. I see him at the low end of the TD range - 7.
Bottom line - great move for the Bengals & solid move for the Pats.
Apu
Footballguy
I disagree with a few things.Although Dillon is declining and there are some questions surrounding his groin injury and the Pats aren't exactly a run happy team. I've been a Dillon owner many times in the past, last year included. I think you can win with him as your 2nd RB (I always have). BUT, most people will have him ranked higher then he should be, such as in the top 12. He will definitely go higher then he should. But I would take him as my 2nd RB in about the 4th round (after QB, RB, WR).He'll have more yards and TD's then you think.Wow, hearing comments like this make me think that all Dillon owners should trade him now while his value is high.This is a good team move for the Patriots, he will help them win games. That doesn't necessarily translate into good fantasy numbers. I really don't see him putting up numbers much better than A. Smith. Dillon has been disappointing for awhile now and there's no reason to think he's going to ever be a fantasy stud again.About 1000 yards with 4 td's seems likely. He'll be a top 30 back, but won't be the kind of guy you win a league with having him as your number 2 back. He's a solid number 3/bench back, but nothing more. Trade him now while people expect him to be a top 15 back.
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Insoxicated
:rotflmao: You're joking, right? You guys fail to realize that he will be running behind a MUCH better O-Line now....with a MUCH more potent passing attack that Defenses will have to respect. He should see right around 300 carries and has NEVER ageraged under 3.9YPC in a season....that puts him around 1150-1200yards behind the Bungle's line....in the Patriots' system I think this translates into much closer to 1300 yards than the 1000 you're expecting. Regarding the 4TDs....I realize TDs are tough to project but Faulk/Smith combined for 5 last year and IMHO Dillion provides a better goalline presence than either....I'd say Dillion should be a lock for at least 5-6TDs and likely closer to 8-9 IMHO.Wow, hearing comments like this make me think that all Dillon owners should trade him now while his value is high.This is a good team move for the Patriots, he will help them win games. That doesn't necessarily translate into good fantasy numbers. I really don't see him putting up numbers much better than A. Smith. Dillon has been disappointing for awhile now and there's no reason to think he's going to ever be a fantasy stud again.About 1000 yards with 4 td's seems likely. He'll be a top 30 back, but won't be the kind of guy you win a league with having him as your number 2 back. He's a solid number 3/bench back, but nothing more. Trade him now while people expect him to be a top 15 back.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Sweet Love, there is certainly reason to believe that Dillon has upside far greater than the range I've put forth, and we'll look at the situation in greater detail as the preseason heats up (obviously Dillon will be a featured Player Spotlight).But, as to his putting together a 1,400+ yard rushing season. While it's possible that could happen, a confluence of things would have to occur including:
Dillon would have to return to the days when he averaged 4.5 per carry; which hasn't happened since 2000
The Patriots would have to massively improve their offensive lines production on the ground, where they've averaged near the league low in YPC for several years
Charlie Weis would have to significantly alter the run/pass balance of the teamIs it possible all these things will happen? Absolutely, but just minutes after the trade, I'm not ready to say they all will, nor would I rank Dillon in my top 10 without some compelling evidence that he is not only the feature back, but that he's healthier than ever and that the team plans on using him more than they've ever used their RBs before.
crazygutgut
Footballguy
Maybe the Pats were not sold on the Rbs in this years draft?
mighty thor
Footballguy
I think they may have like Jackson but not his agent. I still think they may grab a RB in the second. Possibly Greg Jones if he is still available.
amnesiac
beer is good
Question: Isn't Dillon a fair to good pass-catcher? Even if he doesn't load up a huge number of yards on the ground, he should be able to pad his numbers with rec. yards, no? I would also think this would keep him on the field quite a bit as well. Assuming he's healthy, I see Dillon getting plenty of work and should be at least around the 10-12 RB range.
nathanbalboa
Footballguy
I've got a friend at work he keeps picking Michigan St. in his NCAA brackets to go further in the tournament than what's realistic because he remembers the years when they were great and he's hoping for a return to the glory years. So when Michigan St. goes into the tournament as a below average team, he always gets burned by them.
Dillon is no longer a premire and at every draft there will be an owner that over values him. Don't get me wrong, Dillon has value, you just won't be able to get him in a round where his value belongs because he'll go too early. Dillon's a headcase who's getting old and playing for a team/offense that hasn't had a runningback put up solid fantasy numbers since Curtis Martin left.The Patriots will win with him, but fantasy teams won't. Mark my words, teams will not consistently win with Dillon as a number 2 back on their fantasy roster.
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#1 I don't think the Pats have a better O-line than the Bengals had in 2003.#2 I don't think the Pats have a much more potent passing attack then the Bengals had in 2003.#3 Corey Dillon sucked in 2003 behind a very strong O-line and potent passing attack.
Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
nor are 20 yo malcontents who aren't 3 years removed from high school.Only becuase 30 year old malcontents aren't eligible for the draft...
SammyJankis
Footballguy
Couldn't agree more.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
nor are 20 yo malcontents who aren't 3 years removed from high school.
Homer J Simpson
I don't push
Let's mention the fact that Cincy got a 2nd rounder for a guy that almost certainly wouldn't have suited up for them this year. What a great play by Marvin lewis and Mike Brown (my lord I can't believe I just wrote that). I don't think I'd like to play poker with Marvin.
I don't think I'd like to play poker with Marvin.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Dillon is not a particularly good receiver, that is to say, he's not been utilized in that manner with great success and after seven years and several different offensive coordinators, it's unlikely he posseses some hidden level of proficiency.His 7.7 YPC for his career is mediocre, but he has failed to crack the 7 YPC in the last three years. To be fair, he is more accomplished than Antowain Smith, as Dillon has averaged 29 receptions over a 16 game schedule (projected for his career numbers.)And another point to consider, the Patriots re-signed Kevin Faulk this offseason, who has proven himself to be quite solid as a receiver out of the backfield. It would be unreasonable to project Dillon to all of the sudden amass a lot of receiving yards all things considered.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
To be fair, Dillon was out with a bad groin for part of the season, and played hurt part of the season. I'm not implying anything one way or the other as to what numbers he would have put up with a full and healthy year, but to just look at his final numbers or even his per-game numbers would be misleading.That said, I'm not in the camp picking him for a top-15 year in 2004.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Let's get back to that Willie Green to Oakland thing. I really think this is going to happen. Green and the #7 to Oakland for the #2 and Oakland still get Roy Williams. Aint life grand. 
Green and the #7 to Oakland for the #2 and Oakland still get Roy Williams. Aint life grand.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I think you may be right when the dust settles. I can very easily see Dillon's past production and his name coupled with the idea that New England has been missing a stud RB, enticing at least one or two owners in every league to view him as a RB1. If Dillon's ADP starts showing late first, early second, I would think we're all collectively better served avoiding him, and I wouldn't expect to roster him under those circumstances.But in more competitive leagues, I could see him falling to the late 2nd, 3rd round in 12 teams leagues and he would certainly be worth considering at that juncture.Remember that EVERYONE has value under the right circumstances.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Looking outside the stats, what are the chances we see a Stephen Davis like effect here? New team, good team, better environment = tremendous success.I think the majority here is saying Dillon will dissapoint slightly, and I tend to agree. For one, big signings like this seem to do that a lot (Redskins). Secondly, I don't think the Pats are a much better fantasy environment for Dillon than the Bengals. Third of course, being that someone will likely reach on Dillon in the very top of the second round.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Chase, for that to happen, we'll need to see some evidence of Belichick and Weis' desire to massively overhaul the way the team plays offensively. When Davis was brought into Carolina, the team was explicit about intending to make itself into a power running team, with the potential for its star RB to get 400 carries a season. I can't see the Pats endorsing such a dramatic swing considering they have won 2 or 3 Super Bowls with a dynamic, pass heavy attack.
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Insoxicated
Perhaps I shouldn't have capitalized the "MUCH" but I do believe that the Pats have a better offensive line than Cincy. We will just have to agree to disagree there.....What are YOUR projections for Dillion this year? What part do you disagree with regarding my assumptions? the assumption of 290-300 carries (realistic given Pats past RB usage levels) or the career low 3.9 YPC? Don't get me wrong...I am NOT in the "Dillion is a #1 RB" camp...not even close....I just think that the people arguing for 700-900 yards and 2-4 TDs are going a bit too far the other way. Dillion is an egotist...but now he'll have no excuse for poor production.... I can see him stepping it up a little bit since he's got the motivation and a chance to be part of a winning team now. This is his chance to help validate his career and help choke back the "haters".... hopefully he realizes that.
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Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Great deal for Pats (not a fan).I think the Bengals got hosed.There is a lot of bias in this thread. Dillon, like other players that have burned FF'ers, is now underrated (see Plummer). He is still one of the top backs in the league.F'n Patriots... :cX:
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Except their most pass-heavy attack was in 2002, when they missed the playoffs.This isn't Miami trading for Ricky Williams (although it might be similar), because New England didn't give up all that much. But don't forget Jason, the way the Pats won that first SB. Antowain Smith was the key there, and they rode him down the stretch. Give a Parcells disciple a real RB, and well--who knows what will happen.A. Smith got 20 carries every game in December 2001, and had 18/92 in that Super Bowl. Brady had just 260 yards in the AFC and NFL championship games.The Pats have only been pass happy two of the last three years. Once they won the SB. They were run happy with a pretty good Antowain Smith.The personnel has changed in favor of a more aerial attack, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Dillon get quite a lot of carries.
Chris Smith
The Head Goon!
This is a deal that should work out great for both teams. The Bengals were able to secure a solid draft pick for a player they couldn’t have on the roster this season. He was a huge cancer for the organization and they would have traded him away for a case of Lay’s potato chips if he was still on the roster once training camp began.That said, he does have talent, past history of success and is heads and shoulders above the other running backs in the Patriots organization. Last season, the three journeyman running backs for New England (Kevin Faulk, Antowain Smith and Mike Cloud) rushed for 1398 yards on 387 carries and scored 8 touchdowns.In 2002, Faulk/Smith rushed for 1253 yards on only 304 carries and scored 8 touchdowns. (on a team that was entirely TOO pass happy)In 2001, Faulk/Smith/Redmond rushed for 1445 yards on 363 carries and scored 13 touchdowns.Dillon is a much better running back than Antowain Smith who was able to rush for 2781 yards over the last three seasons on 721 carries and score 21 touchdowns. The Patriots are the most successful when they mixed a solid rushing attack into the passing game. It wasn’t a fluke that the team took a nosedive in 2002 when they stopped running the ball consistently.Expect the Patriots to hand the ball off to the running backs at least 380 times in 2004. Mike Cloud won’t be an option and Kevin Faulk will get a fair amount of work as a change of pace back/3rd down specialist. If Corey Dillon can stay healthy, he is almost a lock to pickup 300 carries on the season, 30 receptions on the season. In terms of projecting his contribution to the Patriots this year, mark me down for320 carries, 1280 rushing yards, 35 receptions, 260 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns.Good enough for 202 fantasy points which will be good enough production to warrant picking him in the mid-to late second round of your fantasy draft.Great pickup for the Patriots!
Homer J Simpson
I don't push
Ummm...the Bengals most likely would have cut him after June first if no one would give up a decent pick. Most analysts said they'd be luck to get a first day pick. I'm wondering what you'd consider a GOOD deal for the Bengals in this situation.
