Dion Lewis (3 Viewers)

[Bayhawks]

The key is that he got all of the goal line carries the first three times they were there. He scored on the first, and then carried for 4 yards to the 2 on the next two....imagine the conversation if he had gone 6 feet more on those opportunities and had 3 tds at halftime and THEN Blount came in and got his 3. Coulda woulda shoulda easily taken place and then I think Lewis is getting nothing but positive posts.

He only got 1 GL carry yesterday, and he failed to score. A carry from the 8 yard line isn't a GL carry; a carry from the 6 yard line isn't a GL carry.

That being said, he has value, especially in PPR. He's not a RB1, as some people were claiming prior to this game. He's a RB2, who has RB1 upside. There might be some weeks when he "explodes," and that would be those game when he scores a couple of TDs, from a distance. He's not likely to get multiple short-yardage TDs in a given week.

 

[Anarchy99]

Lewis has looked great so far, but the past two games his rushing workload has been 7 and 8 carries. I personally am a little concerned that he might only get that limited number of carries. He might not stay at that range, but it is a concern (and the Pats reinvent the wheel each week depending upon the opponent).

The best upside comparison to me is 2011 Darren Sproles in NOS, who put up 87-603-2 with 86-710-7 (an average of 82 yfs a game). Lewis might get more carries than Sproles did (but won't average almost 7 yards per carry). Lewis having a 1300/7 season with 80+ receptions would be great for PPR leagues and would probably rank him in the Top 10-15 in 0 ppr leagues. Certainly excellent value for a waiver wire pick up in most leagues.

 

[AcerFC]

Just had a funny back and forth with an owner in my league who texted me last night about Lewis

me: Lewis and wallace for A Brown ( I knew he wouldnt bite, but it started off discussion)

Him: Not even close, add in Lynch or Lacy and then we can start talking

Me: What exactly did you have in mind when you brought up Lewis. Guy is RB4 with a 15th round keeper eligibility

Him: Dont know, Ill look it over and get back to you. He has played his best games already so Im not overpaying

me: lolz, guy is RB1 on the best offense in the league. Blount didnt start touching the ball until Lewis was pulled. Ill gladly hold

Him: Sell Gary or Brett on that fools gold. Im not buying

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Lewis and hopkins for brown is more reasonable pre ben injury. Factoring that in lewis and watkins is in the ballpark.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I think what's most interesting is their willingness to use him in the RZ. I believe he had 3 RZ attempts this week (all in the first half) which is going to bring his total up to 8 on the year. He actually waved someone off (I'm assuming Blount) late in the 2nd quarter while in the RZ which was hilarious. He's proven he can be effective in the RZ so I don't see this trend stopping. I think his value is similar to that of Woodhead yet he plays on the most potent offense in the NFL.

 

[AcerFC]

My aplogies to fbgs and whoever that guy was. I overreacted.

Was just trying to share a story.

 

[Tango]

I think what's most interesting is their willingness to use him in the RZ. I believe he had 3 RZ attempts this week (all in the first half) which is going to bring his total up to 8 on the year. He actually waved someone off (I'm assuming Blount) late in the 2nd quarter while in the RZ which was hilarious. He's proven he can be effective in the RZ so I don't see this trend stopping. I think his value is similar to that of Woodhead yet he plays on the most potent offense in the NFL.

Yes, hes getting RZ carries, though I dont quite buy that he's any sort of GL back. Despite Bloom not recognizing this distinction on his podcast, the RZ and GL are very different animals. I'll have to turn on NFL Short Cuts to look again-- but Lewis' TD run didnt seem to be a goalline carry at all.

That being said...the Woodhead++ comparison is a good one IMHO.

 

[tone1oc]

I'll just go ahead and leave this here

https://twitter.com/SigmundBloom/status/648532824899780609

 

[Tango]

I think what's most interesting is their willingness to use him in the RZ. I believe he had 3 RZ attempts this week (all in the first half) which is going to bring his total up to 8 on the year. He actually waved someone off (I'm assuming Blount) late in the 2nd quarter while in the RZ which was hilarious. He's proven he can be effective in the RZ so I don't see this trend stopping. I think his value is similar to that of Woodhead yet he plays on the most potent offense in the NFL.

Yes, hes getting RZ carries, though I dont quite buy that he's any sort of GL back. Despite Bloom not recognizing this distinction on his podcast, the RZ and GL are very different animals. I'll have to turn on NFL Short Cuts to look again-- but Lewis' TD run didnt seem to be a goalline carry at all.

That being said...the Woodhead++ comparison is a good one IMHO.

Just one more very basic point that shouldnt be overlooked--

Blount looked good-- and not extraordinarily good b/c it was JAX. Yesterday he was exactly the same Blount who ran well in December/January. So Blount probably gets more carries than Lewis going fwd. That being said, touches matters more and thus Lewis is an every week start and Blount is a most-week start.

We should all be very happy that this is a two-headed monster and not of the usual three-head variety in NE. This NE pie is plenty big enough to cut two hefty pieces and be happy.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I think what's most interesting is their willingness to use him in the RZ. I believe he had 3 RZ attempts this week (all in the first half) which is going to bring his total up to 8 on the year. He actually waved someone off (I'm assuming Blount) late in the 2nd quarter while in the RZ which was hilarious. He's proven he can be effective in the RZ so I don't see this trend stopping. I think his value is similar to that of Woodhead yet he plays on the most potent offense in the NFL.

Yes, hes getting RZ carries, though I dont quite buy that he's any sort of GL back. Despite Bloom not recognizing this distinction on his podcast, the RZ and GL are very different animals. I'll have to turn on NFL Short Cuts to look again-- but Lewis' TD run didnt seem to be a goalline carry at all.

That being said...the Woodhead++ comparison is a good one IMHO.

Yeah, I made it a point to say RZ and not GL because they are completely different from a "odds to score" standpoint. Really, what we consider to be the RZ (20 yards out) is in fact arbitrary; your odds of scoring a rushing/receiving touchdown only receive relevant increases when you start to approach the 15 yard line and under. Also, comparatively, the odds of Lewis scoring from let's say 5 yards out are a lot smaller than Blount scoring on the GL.

Lewis doesn't receive GL carries but he receives RZ rushes.

 

[packersfan]

I tend to focus more on RBs who get touches inside the 10 then who gets carries at the 1, especially if the offense is great like New England's. Blount may get more touches at the 1 than Lewis but Lewis is plenty active inside the 10. So, as we've seen the past two games, his TD potential should remain strong most weeks since NE is likely to spend plenty of time inside the opponents' 10 all season long.

 

[tone1oc]

With re: running when the weather gets cold.. I went ahead and tested the newest boogey man and did the splits for Vereen/Blount/Ridley over the past 3 seasons.

The only of the 3 to see a decrease in carries from weeks 1-11 & 12-17 is Blount who had 5 less carries late in the year. Ridley saw a +2 delta, while Vereen saw about +1.5 more. Also, Vereen had just a touch more targets so no real change in passing usage.

1) vereen had 69 rush attempts in week 1-9 last year. They had a week 10 bye. After the bye, he had 37 rush attempts. Before the bye, he had 31 receptions. After, 22. His numbers went down.2) the year before that, vereen got hurt week 1 and didn't play again until week 10. I would hope his numbers went up in the second half of the season. However, after logging 35 carries in his first 4 games, he logged just 9 carries in his final four.

3) I don't really care if vereen's numbers went down, because Lewis is not vereen.

4) Blount was hurt part way through a game late last season and missed another.

5) Ridleys numbers went down because he got benched and Blount took over.

I didn't ignore your "analysis" because I didn't agree with it. I ignored it because I don't agree with your method, at all.

First off my post was dealing with averages, not general output but I'll play.

1) 69 rushes in 9 games = 7.7 rushes/game, 37/6 = 6.2 rushes/game .. Which isn't the precipitous falloff you are making it out to be. Plus I used 3 seasons of data 2012-2014 instead of opting for the smaller sample which kinda sorta supports your make believe narrative

Also, 22/6 = 3.7 rec/game is higher than the 31/9 = 3.44 rec/game before bye .

2) I used averages over 3 seasons, so an injury or missed games does not matter.

3) I completely agree, its others who think he is just playing that role. I compared all 3 backs for clarity, not just Vereen

4) Again, I used averages over 3 seasons, so an injury or missed games does not matter

5) Again, I used averages over 3 seasons, so a benching does not matter.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think what's most interesting is their willingness to use him in the RZ. I believe he had 3 RZ attempts this week (all in the first half) which is going to bring his total up to 8 on the year. He actually waved someone off (I'm assuming Blount) late in the 2nd quarter while in the RZ which was hilarious. He's proven he can be effective in the RZ so I don't see this trend stopping. I think his value is similar to that of Woodhead yet he plays on the most potent offense in the NFL.

Yes, hes getting RZ carries, though I dont quite buy that he's any sort of GL back. Despite Bloom not recognizing this distinction on his podcast, the RZ and GL are very different animals. I'll have to turn on NFL Short Cuts to look again-- but Lewis' TD run didnt seem to be a goalline carry at all.

That being said...the Woodhead++ comparison is a good one IMHO.

Yeah, I made it a point to say RZ and not GL because they are completely different from a "odds to score" standpoint. Really, what we consider to be the RZ (20 yards out) is in fact arbitrary; your odds of scoring a rushing/receiving touchdown only receive relevant increases when you start to approach the 15 yard line and under. Also, comparatively, the odds of Lewis scoring from let's say 5 yards out are a lot smaller than Blount scoring on the GL.

Lewis doesn't receive GL carries but he receives RZ rushes.

he almost always makes the first man miss. watch his RZ touches. he has a higher chance to score than an average RB, which is what those numbers are based on. also in this offense, the number of RZ opps will be huge

 

[[icon]]

I hear all this discussion... I must have missed the spots where Blount came in for "goal line" carries before BB made the shift from Dion to Blount after the game had gotten out of hand?

To my eyes, there was a pretty distinct before/after shift in the game....
Lewis was in early when the Pats were attempting to get a lead and gain firm control of the game. Blount was in later once the Pats had the game somewhat in hand.

 

[[icon]]

FIRST HALF:

DRIVE 1:
Lewis : Reception 3yds
ENTER REDZONE
Lewis : Rush 8yds for TD (from 8yd line)

DRIVE 2:
Lewis: Reception 3yds
Lewis: Rush 3yds
Lewis: Rush 10yds
Lewis: Rush 3yds

DRIVE 3:
Blount: Rush 3yds
Lewis: Reception 6yds
Blount: Reception: 14yds
Blount: Rush 22yds
ENTER REDZONE
Lewis: Rush 2yds (from 14yd line)
Lewis: Rush 4yds (from 6yd line)

DRIVE 4:
Lewis: Rush 5yds
Lewis: Reception: 9yds
ENTER REDZONE
Lewis: Rush: 2yds (from 3yd line)

First Half: Score 20-3
Lewis : 12 Touches : 4 of which were in the redzone
Blount : 3 Touches : 0 of which were in the redzone

 

[ghostguy123]

I think it is more than obvious that Lewis is their #1 RB. He will not be a bell cow, but he will get enough rushes and receptions on average per week to probably put him in the top 10-15 range when all is said and done at the end of the year, making him a decent RB-2. Assuming health of course.

God why couldnt he stay healthy in Cleveland.

 

[matuski]

Lewis is the #2 RB in my league after 3 weeks.

 

[ghostguy123]

FIRST HAL

First Half: Score 20-3

Lewis : 12 Touches : 4 of which were in the redzone

Blount : 3 Touches : 0 of which were in the redzone

Pretty much this.

Lewis doesnt have a super high ceiling, but he also has a pretty high floor.

 

[Shawn]

I think he fits the Vereen role better than Vereen. He is good at catching passes, and unlike Vereen, he is good at running from the backfield as well. Sure LeGarrett Blount will vulture here and there, I still see Lewis as the higher scoring of the 2, especially in PPR. The biggest problem is Blount is also better than Ridley at what he does...

 

[Anarchy99]

FIRST HALF:

DRIVE 1:

Lewis : Reception 3yds

ENTER REDZONE

Lewis : Rush 8yds for TD (from 8yd line)

DRIVE 2:

Lewis: Reception 3yds

Lewis: Rush 3yds

Lewis: Rush 10yds

Lewis: Rush 3yds

DRIVE 3:

Blount: Rush 3yds

Lewis: Reception 6yds

Blount: Reception: 14yds

Blount: Rush 22yds

ENTER REDZONE

Lewis: Rush 2yds (from 14yd line)

Lewis: Rush 4yds (from 6yd line)

DRIVE 4:

Lewis: Rush 5yds

Lewis: Reception: 9yds

ENTER REDZONE

Lewis: Rush: 2yds (from 3yd line)

First Half: Score 20-3

Lewis : 12 Touches : 4 of which were in the redzone

Blount : 3 Touches : 0 of which were in the redzone

The Patriots could be way ahead in a lot of games. Doesn't change the issue that Lewis is not a lot for a consistent workload week in and week out.

 

[[icon]]

SECOND HALF:

Dion Lewis did not get any touches. One could infer that this was a clear cut "sit this one out" half for Lewis.

1st Drive:

Rush 9yds
Rush 3yds

2nd Drive:
ENTER REDZONE
Rush 1yd (From 1yd Line - TD)

3rd Drive:
Rush 7yds
Rush 17yds
ENTER REDZONE
Rush 2yds (From 15yd line)

4th Drive:
Rush 1yd
ENTER REDZONE
Rush 0yds (from 1 yd line)
Rush 1yd (From 1 yd line - TD)

5th Drive:
Rush 8yds
Rush 1yd
ENTER REDZONE
Rush 2yds (from 11yd line)
Rush 3yds (From 6yd line)
Rush 2yds (From 3yd line)
Rush 1yd (From 1yd line - TD)

15 touches - 7 in redzone

Lewis absence in the 2nd half was likely the result of one or more of the following:
• Team has more confidence in Blount as a back
• Lewis had seen a lions share of workload over last 2 games / Team wanted to give blount work
• Game was out of hand and NE shifted to a more ball/clock control ground/pound style running game

 

[Shawn]

FIRST HALF:

DRIVE 1:

Lewis : Reception 3yds

ENTER REDZONE

Lewis : Rush 8yds for TD (from 8yd line)

DRIVE 2:

Lewis: Reception 3yds

Lewis: Rush 3yds

Lewis: Rush 10yds

Lewis: Rush 3yds

DRIVE 3:

Blount: Rush 3yds

Lewis: Reception 6yds

Blount: Reception: 14yds

Blount: Rush 22yds

ENTER REDZONE

Lewis: Rush 2yds (from 14yd line)

Lewis: Rush 4yds (from 6yd line)

DRIVE 4:

Lewis: Rush 5yds

Lewis: Reception: 9yds

ENTER REDZONE

Lewis: Rush: 2yds (from 3yd line)

First Half: Score 20-3

Lewis : 12 Touches : 4 of which were in the redzone

Blount : 3 Touches : 0 of which were in the redzone

The Patriots could be way ahead in a lot of games. Doesn't change the issue that Lewis is not a lot for a consistent workload week in and week out.

Dynasty wise he may be the waiver wire steal... Blount is old.

 

[rjv]

SECOND HALF:

Dion Lewis did not get any touches. One could infer that this was a clear cut "sit this one out" half for Lewis.

1st Drive:

Rush 9yds

Rush 3yds

2nd Drive:

ENTER REDZONE

Rush 1yd (From 1yd Line - TD)

3rd Drive:

Rush 7yds

Rush 17yds

ENTER REDZONE

Rush 2yds (From 15yd line)

4th Drive:

Rush 1yd

ENTER REDZONE

Rush 0yds (from 1 yd line)

Rush 1yd (From 1 yd line - TD)

5th Drive:

Rush 8yds

Rush 1yd

ENTER REDZONE

Rush 2yds (from 11yd line)

Rush 3yds (From 6yd line)

Rush 2yds (From 3yd line)

Rush 1yd (From 1yd line - TD)

15 touches - 7 in redzone

Lewis absence in the 2nd half was likely the result of one or more of the following:

• Team has more confidence in Blount as a back

• Lewis had seen a lions share of workload over last 2 games / Team wanted to give blount work

• Game was out of hand and NE shifted to a more ball/clock control ground/pound style running game

I believe its the 3rd choice.

 

[[icon]]

The Patriots could be way ahead in a lot of games. Doesn't change the issue that Lewis is not a lot for a consistent workload week in and week out.

Oh I hear you... I don't think lewis is a lock for monster numbers weekly, but I'm not sure I agree with NE being way ahead in a lot of games...

@ DAL

@ IND

v NYJ

v MIA

v WAS

@ NYG

v BUF

@ DEN

v PHI

@ HOU

v TEN

@ NYJ

@ MIA

Using Sagarin's numbers (randomly selected reasonably independent source), JAX is the worst team NEP will face all year. The only other "bottom 3rd" teams they will face will be HOU (on road, likely with a healthy Foster Back), TEN & WAS (at home).

They have 6 games against "Top 3rd" division rivals in MIA/NYJ (one each road/home), on the road against a Romo/Dez less DAL squad who still gave a very good ATL squad everything they wanted this week, and a road matchup against an excellent DEN squad.

Then they face some middling squads like IND (road) and PHI (home) who are both underperforming but have the potential to be quite good if they get in gear.

They face a Giants quad on the road who look bad now, but seem to get up for NEP games.

We may have a couple more games like this JAX game... but I disagree there will be oceans of garbage time for NEP this year.

 

[packersfan]

I wouldn't rule out the possibility the Patriots' offense is so good this season SOS becomes absolutely meaningless against them.

 

[ericttspikes]

The only negative thus far in New England: Lewis is responsible for two of the Patriots' three turnovers.

"He's been on a short leash with that," Fears said. "He's on a short leash. He's a very exciting guy. He's a jitterbug — just like Kevin Faulk. Kevin had problems early in his career, too, so it's not unusual. Once they get going, the ball comes away from the body. It's a natural thing. Well, he's got to learn to bring it in. If he does, he'll be alright. If he doesn't, he'll be watching a lot of football."

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2015/09/dion_lewis_kevin_faulk_new_eng.html

 

[shadyridr]

I thought he didn't lose the first fumble. Didn't Gronk recover it?

 

[Anarchy99]

The Patriots could be way ahead in a lot of games. Doesn't change the issue that Lewis is not a lot for a consistent workload week in and week out.

Oh I hear you... I don't think lewis is a lock for monster numbers weekly, but I'm not sure I agree with NE being way ahead in a lot of games...

@ DAL

@ IND

v NYJ

v MIA

v WAS

@ NYG

v BUF

@ DEN

v PHI

@ HOU

v TEN

@ NYJ

@ MIA

Using Sagarin's numbers, JAX is the worst team NEP will face all year. The only other "bottom 3rd" teams they will face will be HOU (on road, but likely with a healthyFoster Back), TEN & WAS (at home).

They have 6 games against "Top 3rd" division rivals in MIA/NYJ (one each road/home), on the road against a Romo/Dez less DAL squad who still gave a very good ATL squad everything they wanted this week, and a road matchup against an excellent DEN squad.

Then they face some middling squads like IND (road) and PHI (home) who are both underperforming but have the potential to be quite good if they get in gear.

They face a Giants quad on the road who look bad now, but seem to get up for NEP games.

We may have a couple more games like this JAX game... but I disagree there will be oceans of garbage time for NEP this year.

Well, last year they played a ton of Top 10 defenses (based on yards or points allowed) and here's how they did . . .

SEA 28

KCC 14

DET 34

BUF 37

BAL 35

MIN 30

CIN 43

SDC 23

DEN 43

NYJ 27 and 17

MIA 20 and 41

IND 45 and 42

I don't really think they are subject to the typical DOWNGRADE ALL PATS because of who they are facing. Only two teams on that list held them to under 20 points. But there were 5 games over 40 points and another 4 games over 30. They just tagged BUF with 40 last week. They've held leads in the fourth quarter this year of 14, 24, and 41 points in each respective game this season. And more importantly, they generally get better as the season goes on (won loss wise). They might scale things down some offensively in December, with injuries and the cold weather and all. But I don't see many teams that are going to slow down or derail their offense all that much.

Even watching their games so far this year, the Patriots have done more to stall drives than defenses have (penalties, dropped passes, throwing bombs on 4th and 1, not checking down on passes and going deep and incomplete instead).

 

[bostonfred]

I used averages over 3 seasons, so a benching does not matter.

I get that you put work into this, and I appreciate the effort, but you don't seem to have any context for what you're looking at. Suffice to say three year raw averages for ridley, vereen and Blount are going to be crazily skewed by a lot of factors.

 

[Neo]

I thought he didn't lose the first fumble. Didn't Gronk recover it?

Gronk did but to a coach I don't think that matters.

 

[tone1oc]

I used averages over 3 seasons, so a benching does not matter.

I get that you put work into this, and I appreciate the effort, but you don't seem to have any context for what you're looking at. Suffice to say three year raw averages for ridley, vereen and Blount are going to be crazily skewed by a lot of factors.

I get that you have opinions, and I appreciate them, but you don't seem to consider facts when coming up with them.

 

[RealReactions]

The only negative thus far in New England: Lewis is responsible for two of the Patriots' three turnovers.

"He's been on a short leash with that," Fears said. "He's on a short leash. He's a very exciting guy. He's a jitterbug — just like Kevin Faulk. Kevin had problems early in his career, too, so it's not unusual. Once they get going, the ball comes away from the body. It's a natural thing. Well, he's got to learn to bring it in. If he does, he'll be alright. If he doesn't, he'll be watching a lot of football."

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2015/09/dion_lewis_kevin_faulk_new_eng.html

So you are getting information from a random online blog to support your point? So if i write a blog and someone uses my blog does that make it a reliable source too?

 

[[icon]]

The only negative thus far in New England: Lewis is responsible for two of the Patriots' three turnovers.

"He's been on a short leash with that," Fears said. "He's on a short leash. He's a very exciting guy. He's a jitterbug — just like Kevin Faulk. Kevin had problems early in his career, too, so it's not unusual. Once they get going, the ball comes away from the body. It's a natural thing. Well, he's got to learn to bring it in. If he does, he'll be alright. If he doesn't, he'll be watching a lot of football."

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2015/09/dion_lewis_kevin_faulk_new_eng.html

So you are getting information from a random online blog to support your point? So if i write a blog and someone uses my blog does that make it a reliable source too?

I'd be surprised if the blog, however random, would make up quotes from the Patriots running backs coach. Even removing any editorial takes, those quotes are relevant.

MassLive is a pretty damn big/reputable site for that area.

 

[shadyridr]

I thought he didn't lose the first fumble. Didn't Gronk recover it?

Gronk did but to a coach I don't think that matters.

oh i agree. I'm just saying it because that article said he was responsible for 2 of new England's 3 turnovers this year

 

[ericttspikes]

The only negative thus far in New England: Lewis is responsible for two of the Patriots' three turnovers.

"He's been on a short leash with that," Fears said. "He's on a short leash. He's a very exciting guy. He's a jitterbug — just like Kevin Faulk. Kevin had problems early in his career, too, so it's not unusual. Once they get going, the ball comes away from the body. It's a natural thing. Well, he's got to learn to bring it in. If he does, he'll be alright. If he doesn't, he'll be watching a lot of football."

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2015/09/dion_lewis_kevin_faulk_new_eng.html

So you are getting information from a random online blog to support your point? So if i write a blog and someone uses my blog does that make it a reliable source too?

Are you the NE RB coach?

 

[RealReactions]

The only negative thus far in New England: Lewis is responsible for two of the Patriots' three turnovers.

"He's been on a short leash with that," Fears said. "He's on a short leash. He's a very exciting guy. He's a jitterbug — just like Kevin Faulk. Kevin had problems early in his career, too, so it's not unusual. Once they get going, the ball comes away from the body. It's a natural thing. Well, he's got to learn to bring it in. If he does, he'll be alright. If he doesn't, he'll be watching a lot of football."

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2015/09/dion_lewis_kevin_faulk_new_eng.html

So you are getting information from a random online blog to support your point? So if i write a blog and someone uses my blog does that make it a reliable source too?

Are you the NE RB coach?

i could be if you wanted me to

 

[SameSongNDance]

Lewis Week 3 vs. JAC. This guy's lateral agility gets me every time.

 

[mnmplayer]

Just watched the game. He did not come close to maximizing his point potential. He was open for another receiving TD when Brady forced it to Edelman to the right when he was open in the middle of the field. They wil look at film and see that one got away (and hopefully Brady files that one away for the next time they are down there and Edelman is covered), turned into a FG I believe. He also go stopped at the 1 or 2 yard line for another TD that Blount took in from the one. Blount had an Asiata type day with 3 1 yd TD plunges. What amazes me is for the amount of time Dion was on the field he racked up 17 point in my PPR scoring with only about 1.5 quarters of play. Also Dion was open for upwards of 5 dump-offs that would have been for 5-10 easy yards each yet Brady had men open deeper and hit those guys for 20+ yard gains instead. A better secondary would have forced brady to dump off.

Dion could have very easily had 20+ points in this game even though he played what amounts to only a couple of quarters. If Dion gets into a situation where he has to play all 4 quarters and they are playing a team that keeps pace with NE scoring then lookout, he has potential to put up astonishing type numbers. Make no mistake, if they feel they need to score or are playing from behind, Dion will be the guy on the field, not Blount. Then the fantasy community will take notice.

 

[Hoss Style]

With re: running when the weather gets cold.. I went ahead and tested the newest boogey man and did the splits for Vereen/Blount/Ridley over the past 3 seasons.

The only of the 3 to see a decrease in carries from weeks 1-11 & 12-17 is Blount who had 5 less carries late in the year. Ridley saw a +2 delta, while Vereen saw about +1.5 more. Also, Vereen had just a touch more targets so no real change in passing usage.

1) vereen had 69 rush attempts in week 1-9 last year. They had a week 10 bye. After the bye, he had 37 rush attempts. Before the bye, he had 31 receptions. After, 22. His numbers went down.2) the year before that, vereen got hurt week 1 and didn't play again until week 10. I would hope his numbers went up in the second half of the season. However, after logging 35 carries in his first 4 games, he logged just 9 carries in his final four.

3) I don't really care if vereen's numbers went down, because Lewis is not vereen.

4) Blount was hurt part way through a game late last season and missed another.

5) Ridleys numbers went down because he got benched and Blount took over.

I didn't ignore your "analysis" because I didn't agree with it. I ignored it because I don't agree with your method, at all.

First off my post was dealing with averages, not general output but I'll play.

1) 69 rushes in 9 games = 7.7 rushes/game, 37/6 = 6.2 rushes/game .. Which isn't the precipitous falloff you are making it out to be. Plus I used 3 seasons of data 2012-2014 instead of opting for the smaller sample which kinda sorta supports your make believe narrative

Also, 22/6 = 3.7 rec/game is higher than the 31/9 = 3.44 rec/game before bye .

2) I used averages over 3 seasons, so an injury or missed games does not matter.

3) I completely agree, its others who think he is just playing that role. I compared all 3 backs for clarity, not just Vereen

4) Again, I used averages over 3 seasons, so an injury or missed games does not matter

5) Again, I used averages over 3 seasons, so a benching does not matter.

Yeah, I was wondering what he was saying when he said their touches went down late season, and used the math to show that their receptions actually went UP later in the season. I figured it must have been a typo or something. I guess not, judging by his response. Thanks for doing the math, 1oc, - good points.

 

[duaneok66]

The reason you run big guys in the cold isn't because they're good in the cold, it's because defenses don't want to tackle big guys in the cold. It's exhausting and blount is pretty good at it.

I don't think anyone questions whether Lewis can run in the cold. But in college he was running against smaller slower guys. He's over 50 lbs lighter than blount, and he plays a totally different game. It's exhausting dancing around the field in the cold and getting popped by guys who are bigger than you.

Blount getting carries in the cold doesn't mean Lewis gets benched out right. That's not what I'm saying at all. If he keeps playing like this, he will be hard to keep off the field. Right now he creates problems for opposing defenses that blount doesn't. In the cold, blount will create problems for opposing defenses that Lewis doesn't.

This offense doesn't run based off of fantasy numbers and they don't care about who gets rb1 carries. Look at the Ravens game and colts game in last year's playoffs. They will completely go away from a successful running game in one game and run it non stop in the next. All else being equal, Lewis is playing well enough right now that he deserves to be the lead dog. Blount also played very well. The offense is running well. Everything is candy and sugar plums. They will face tougher tests - by the end of 2007 they went down to the wire in multiple games. When they do, I expect blount to get a few extra cold weather carries and that could cap lewis' upside a little. That doesn't mean Lewis can't have a good game. I don't know why this has to be an all or nothing argument.

Thank you.

 

[duaneok66]

Lewis Week 3 vs. JAC. This guy's lateral agility gets me every time.

Song, you are the man!!!!!!!

 

[cubbie5150]

Patriots cut Travaris Cadet with addition of Jon Bostic via trade

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) September 29, 2015

 

[tone1oc]

Patriots cut Travaris Cadet with addition of Jon Bostic via trade

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) September 29, 2015

Just 4 short days ago, for perspective..

im thinking cadet (who has been hurt) could be the 3rd down back coming out of the bye when he is fully healthy, he has 5 inches and 20 lbs on lewis and they brought him in to catch the ball. its speculation at this point but shouldnt be ignored imo. lewis was given a great opportunity with the blount suspension, cadet hammy, and white being a bust, but in no way are the pats invested in him.

 

[mnmplayer]

Patriots cut Travaris Cadet with addition of Jon Bostic via trade

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) September 29, 2015

Just 4 short days ago, for perspective..

im thinking cadet (who has been hurt) could be the 3rd down back coming out of the bye when he is fully healthy, he has 5 inches and 20 lbs on lewis and they brought him in to catch the ball. its speculation at this point but shouldnt be ignored imo. lewis was given a great opportunity with the blount suspension, cadet hammy, and white being a bust, but in no way are the pats invested in him.

 

[tone1oc]

Don't mean to pick on Rimez, I only posted because it's exemplary of the kind of nonsense being thrown out by Dion Lewis truthers.

 

[Anarchy99]

And then they bring in Montee Ball for a tryout.

 

[tone1oc]

And then they bring in Montee Ball for a tryout.

 

[Adam Harstad]

For what it's worth, since I've been sharing them out on Twitter, I figured I'd post the Pats RB snap counts here, too.

Snaps by quarter:

Dion Lewis: 15, 13, 7, 0

LeGarrette Blount: 0, 8, 10, 11

James White: 0, 0, 7, 8

Brandon Bolden: 0, 1, 0, 0

The big takeaway to me from that isn't Lewis vs. Blount. It's Lewis vs. White. Using PFF's snap count data, (which differ slightly from the ones I have above, but I have to work with what I have), James White played 1 snap in the first two weeks combined, and 17 snaps against Jacksonville. All of them came after Dion Lewis was done for the day.

So let's ignore the Blount/Lewis competition and just look at James White. What happens if we assume that James White actually seeing playing time was just New England's way of giving Dion Lewis the afternoon off, (which seems like a pretty safe assumption, to me)? If we add White's numbers to Lewis', Lewis would have finished the week as RB7 in PPR, right between Le'Veon Bell and Adrian Peterson. Even with Blount coming in and getting all of the touchdowns. So Blount isn't really hurting his value at all.

Another interesting takeaway? In a game where New England had a huge lead and was supposedly trying to pound the ball to salt it away, "Passing game RBs" (Lewis/White) accounted for 63% of all RB snaps, while "rushing RBs" (Blount/Bolden) accounted for just 37%.

The last takeaway for me is just the fact that New England gave Lewis the afternoon off at all. The only other offensive player they seemed to give a reduced workload compared to the first two games was Rob Gronkowski, (who played 98%, 94%, and 66% of New England's snaps, respectively, over their first three games). It's hardly dispositive, but when you and Gronk are the only guys New England is giving a break in the second half, it's certainly suggestive. I think the Patriots really like Lewis and wanted to preserve him for when they needed him later.

Add up everything, and the Jacksonville game was a huge positive indicator for me. New England never loved Ridley. That's why they let him walk. They let Jonas Gray walk. They let Vereen walk, too. They even let Blount walk, remember. We've got a lot of evidence that New England is okay rolling with those guys, but not exactly in love with them. Whereas I'm starting to get the vibe that Belichick and Co. really, really like Lewis. More than they ever liked those other guys, at any rate.

In PPR, I'd have no compunction against valuing Lewis as a low-end RB1 the rest of the way. (In standard, he's probably more of a mid-RB2.)

 

[Anarchy99]

Things will get interesting if Lewis fumbles again in the near future.

 

[mnmplayer]

excellent post SSOG. FO such a long post it was concise to the numerous points being made. I agree with the conclusions as well.