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Discount Thursday night players ? (1 Viewer)

Vector

Footballguy
I haven't specifically gone back and checked player by player, but I do know that last year Thursday games were for the most part stinkers and fantasy numbers were, generally, across the board lower.

This is most likely due to the compressed preparation schedule these teams had in game planning which resulted in incomplete strategies.

Going into this year, are you going to discount your players that play in the Thursday night games or hope that last year, and prior years, poor performances were an anomaly?

I think if I have a player that plays on Thursday night he will be benched if I have a marginally equivalent backup that I would normally have as a reserve.

Any thoughts on this ?

 

Koya

Footballguy
Not going to let gamenight dictate my choices, unless the choice is SO even and I (1) want/need to keep roster flexibility in case of a trade if that plays into things or (2) its SUCH a close choice that I want to watch a guy play.

 

Brony

Footballguy
I usually do a 4.5% reduction on Dodds projections for all late Sunday games. except if it's a West Coast team playing at 1PM their local time. For Denver, I will do a 2.1% reduction if they are playing the late afternoon game, but a 1.34% increase if it's a early afternoon game. For Sunday night games, I'll adjust Dodds projections up by 1.1% except for Kickers, who I just leave as is.

 

SameSongNDance

Footballguy
I still don't think we have enough data. I also seem to remember the stats normalizing as the season progressed last year, i.e, it didn't matter. I dislike Thursday night games for other reasons.

What was the name of the thread again? Black Thursday?

 
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SaintsInDome2006

Footballguy
Just a general observation - but truly it seemed last year that some teams were just underprepared on the short week.

And then this Pats/Jets game was again sluggish. Yes, a result of the teams's struggles and the weather, but it looks like a trend to me, not a 100% correlation or even cause and effect, I won't go that far, but teams seem off.

 

DoubleG

Footballguy
Just a general observation - but truly it seemed last year that some teams were just underprepared on the short week.

And then this Pats/Jets game was again sluggish. Yes, a result of the teams's struggles and the weather, but it looks like a trend to me, not a 100% correlation or even cause and effect, I won't go that far, but teams seem off.
Maybe. But we have had 2 Thursday night games now. One with two good teams - both of whom looked...well, good. And one with two bad teams (well, one bad team and another bad team with a good QB) - they looked bad. I think it's a little early to tell. Especially when the argument for "downgrading Thursday night expectations" are two teams that are filled with players that are CFL players, rookies and have dealt with injuries/suspensions already.

 

Sarnoff

Footballguy
Just a general observation - but truly it seemed last year that some teams were just underprepared on the short week.

And then this Pats/Jets game was again sluggish. Yes, a result of the teams's struggles and the weather, but it looks like a trend to me, not a 100% correlation or even cause and effect, I won't go that far, but teams seem off.
Maybe. But we have had 2 Thursday night games now. One with two good teams - both of whom looked...well, good. And one with two bad teams (well, one bad team and another bad team with a good QB) - they looked bad. I think it's a little early to tell. Especially when the argument for "downgrading Thursday night expectations" are two teams that are filled with players that are CFL players, rookies and have dealt with injuries/suspensions already.
You can't count the first Thursday game because that wasn't a "short preparation" week. It was the first game of the season, they were well rested from the last time they played (pre-season week 3).

 

solorca

Footballguy
I've always disliked Thursday games and if it's a coinflip situation, I'll choose the person that doesn't play on Thursday. Otherwise, I simply go with my rankings and deal with it, but more often than not, I'm disappointed in the outcome.

In fairness, I've also had some huge wins as a result of big games on Thursday, so it's not always bad. Marshawn Lynch against the Eagles a few years ago comes to mind.

 

Vector

Footballguy
Just a general observation - but truly it seemed last year that some teams were just underprepared on the short week.

And then this Pats/Jets game was again sluggish. Yes, a result of the teams's struggles and the weather, but it looks like a trend to me, not a 100% correlation or even cause and effect, I won't go that far, but teams seem off.
Maybe. But we have had 2 Thursday night games now. One with two good teams - both of whom looked...well, good. And one with two bad teams (well, one bad team and another bad team with a good QB) - they looked bad. I think it's a little early to tell. Especially when the argument for "downgrading Thursday night expectations" are two teams that are filled with players that are CFL players, rookies and have dealt with injuries/suspensions already.
You can't count the first Thursday game because that wasn't a "short preparation" week. It was the first game of the season, they were well rested from the last time they played (pre-season week 3).
:goodposting:

 

DoubleG

Footballguy
Just a general observation - but truly it seemed last year that some teams were just underprepared on the short week.

And then this Pats/Jets game was again sluggish. Yes, a result of the teams's struggles and the weather, but it looks like a trend to me, not a 100% correlation or even cause and effect, I won't go that far, but teams seem off.
Maybe. But we have had 2 Thursday night games now. One with two good teams - both of whom looked...well, good. And one with two bad teams (well, one bad team and another bad team with a good QB) - they looked bad. I think it's a little early to tell. Especially when the argument for "downgrading Thursday night expectations" are two teams that are filled with players that are CFL players, rookies and have dealt with injuries/suspensions already.
You can't count the first Thursday game because that wasn't a "short preparation" week. It was the first game of the season, they were well rested from the last time they played (pre-season week 3).
My point is that you can't "count" this last game too much, as it was 2 bad teams playing in less-than ideal conditions. If someone has actual stats that back up the "Thursday night drought", I just think we're using anecdotal "proof". Just looking at last year's Thursday night games - yep, there are some low scores - but there are also several weeks with 30+ points scored by the winning team (sometimes by both teams). Does the short week effect performance? Maybe - but it's possible that it effects defense as well as offense, leading to a slightly sloppier, but statistically small and insignificant deviation from the "norm".

My concern is that whenever we see a game like last night, people suffer from confirmation bias and then ignore the games in between the bad Thursday night showings, when the peaks and valleys might be completely similar to those present in every other aspect of the ebb and flow of a regular NFL season. The Seahawks/Panther game last Sunday had fewer points scored than Thursday night's game. The Titans/Steelers final was 16-9 - and neither of those two games was in bad weather.

 

AcerFC

Footballguy
I usually do a 4.5% reduction on Dodds projections for all late Sunday games. except if it's a West Coast team playing at 1PM their local time. For Denver, I will do a 2.1% reduction if they are playing the late afternoon game, but a 1.34% increase if it's a early afternoon game. For Sunday night games, I'll adjust Dodds projections up by 1.1% except for Kickers, who I just leave as is.
:lmao:

 

Ray_T

Footballguy
I haven't specifically gone back and checked player by player, but I do know that last year Thursday games were for the most part stinkers and fantasy numbers were, generally, across the board lower.

This is most likely due to the compressed preparation schedule these teams had in game planning which resulted in incomplete strategies.

Going into this year, are you going to discount your players that play in the Thursday night games or hope that last year, and prior years, poor performances were an anomaly?

I think if I have a player that plays on Thursday night he will be benched if I have a marginally equivalent backup that I would normally have as a reserve.

Any thoughts on this ?
I find that with less prep time the advantage usually goes to the defense.

 

DoubleG

Footballguy
I haven't specifically gone back and checked player by player, but I do know that last year Thursday games were for the most part stinkers and fantasy numbers were, generally, across the board lower.

This is most likely due to the compressed preparation schedule these teams had in game planning which resulted in incomplete strategies.

Going into this year, are you going to discount your players that play in the Thursday night games or hope that last year, and prior years, poor performances were an anomaly?

I think if I have a player that plays on Thursday night he will be benched if I have a marginally equivalent backup that I would normally have as a reserve.

Any thoughts on this ?
I find that with less prep time the advantage usually goes to the defense.
You said "find" - do you have actual stats? Honestly, if you do, please share with the class.

Actually, I would think quite the opposite. A defense has to game plan for what the specific offensive strengths/weaknesses/tendancies would be.

While I certainly think everyone is entitled to their own opinion, until I see solid, actual stats in at least a decent sample size (a couple of seasons at the very least) I find it very difficult to agree with this theory that everyone should "sit offensive players on Thursdays due to poor performance."

 
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DoubleG

Footballguy
Doug Martin would beg to differ.
Passing game suffers more without enough reps
Week 12 last year - final score 34-31. Stafford and Schaub combined for 750+ yards. A. Johnson had 188 yards receiving. Calvin had 140. Ryan freakin Broyles had 126 yards receiving. Same day (Thanksgiving) - Redskins 38-31 over the Cowboys. RGIII threw for 300+ and 4 TDs. Romo 440 yards and 3TDs. Also that day the Pats put up 49 - Brady threw for 300+ and 3TDs

 
Well we had our first real short week Thursday night game last week and it was a fantasy stinker. This week it's the Chiefs and the Eagles, which on paper should be high scoring, but I'm a Dwayne Bowe owner and I'm nervous about starting him. My only other plausible options would be Joique Bell or Giovani Bernard (Flex).

I'd imagine McCoy owners have him cemented in their lineups. Anyone benching any players for this game based on the fact that it is a Thursday night game?

 
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SameSongNDance

Footballguy
Well we had our first real short week Thursday night game last week and it was a fantasy stinker. This week it's the Chiefs and the Eagles, which on paper should be high scoring, but I'm a Dwayne Bowe owner and I'm nervous about starting him. My other options based on good matchups would be Joique Bell or Giovani Bernard.

I'd imagine McCoy owners have him cemented in their lineups. Anyone benching any players for this game based on the fact that it is a Thursday night game?
I have Bowe cemented as a WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside this week. PHI's secondary was putrid last year, giving up the 5th most points to WRs. This year, they're looking even worse, giving up the most points (40.1 per game) to WRs. There's no way I'm sitting Bowe this week. Moving forward, PHI is going to be a premiere fantasy match-up for all skill position players.

Chip Kelly is fantasy gold, on both sides of the ball.

 
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msudaisy26

Footballguy
I don't have all the stats but I would generally disagree with this. Are you going to hold the bad fantasy performance of the Pats, and Jets because it was a Thursday game? I would like to think it had more to do with the fact Brady had no weapons, the Jets defense is good, the Jets also had a rookie quarterback and the weather was awful for a game. I would say if you put the same conditions on a Sunday the game would have looked the same.

What about last year on Thanksgiving, we had monster performances every where. Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Matt Stafford, Patriots defense, Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, RG3, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley and I am sure I am missing more. Are you telling me we could add to those stats if they played on Sunday that week?

It is a myth, it has more to do with the players and the team then the short week. Just the contract year myth.

 

SameSongNDance

Footballguy
I don't have all the stats but I would generally disagree with this. Are you going to hold the bad fantasy performance of the Pats, and Jets because it was a Thursday game? I would like to think it had more to do with the fact Brady had no weapons, the Jets defense is good, the Jets also had a rookie quarterback and the weather was awful for a game. I would say if you put the same conditions on a Sunday the game would have looked the same.

What about last year on Thanksgiving, we had monster performances every where. Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Matt Stafford, Patriots defense, Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, RG3, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley and I am sure I am missing more. Are you telling me we could add to those stats if they played on Sunday that week?

It is a myth, it has more to do with the players and the team then the short week. Just the contract year myth.
It essentially is a myth that has been perpetuated by small sample sizes and selective memory. Like I said, I'm quite positive the stats normalized by years end last year.

 

KellysHeroes

Footballguy
generally, I try to stay away from the mid week game if I can. Ofcourse I'm not going to bench a stud or something, but if I have to choose between 2 flex players I'm passing on the one with a short rest week. Now if the team is coming off a BYE and going into the mid-week game thats a little different; but I have been burned by lackluster play on Thursdays more times than not ( no stats, just experience).

This Thursday has some good fantasy players in it and no way can I bench Charles, Bowe or McCoy; but I am sitting Vick for RGIII.

 

Vector

Footballguy
I haven't specifically gone back and checked player by player, but I do know that last year Thursday games were for the most part stinkers and fantasy numbers were, generally, across the board lower.

This is most likely due to the compressed preparation schedule these teams had in game planning which resulted in incomplete strategies.

Going into this year, are you going to discount your players that play in the Thursday night games or hope that last year, and prior years, poor performances were an anomaly?

I think if I have a player that plays on Thursday night he will be benched if I have a marginally equivalent backup that I would normally have as a reserve.

Any thoughts on this ?
I find that with less prep time the advantage usually goes to the defense.
You said "find" - do you have actual stats? Honestly, if you do, please share with the class.

Actually, I would think quite the opposite. A defense has to game plan for what the specific offensive strengths/weaknesses/tendancies would be.

While I certainly think everyone is entitled to their own opinion, until I see solid, actual stats in at least a decent sample size (a couple of seasons at the very least) I find it very difficult to agree with this theory that everyone should "sit offensive players on Thursdays due to poor performance."
Since you seem to want to nit pick on word meanings....

You said "sit" while my original post said "discount" their performance and possibly replace with a marginally less productive player.

:shrug:

 

Kool-Aid Larry

Footballguy
I haven't specifically gone back and checked player by player, but I do know that last year Thursday games were for the most part stinkers and fantasy numbers were, generally, across the board lower.

This is most likely due to the compressed preparation schedule these teams had in game planning which resulted in incomplete strategies.

Going into this year, are you going to discount your players that play in the Thursday night games or hope that last year, and prior years, poor performances were an anomaly?

I think if I have a player that plays on Thursday night he will be benched if I have a marginally equivalent backup that I would normally have as a reserve.

Any thoughts on this ?
I find that with less prep time the advantage usually goes to the defense.
You said "find" - do you have actual stats? Honestly, if you do, please share with the class.

Actually, I would think quite the opposite. A defense has to game plan for what the specific offensive strengths/weaknesses/tendancies would be.

While I certainly think everyone is entitled to their own opinion, until I see solid, actual stats in at least a decent sample size (a couple of seasons at the very least) I find it very difficult to agree with this theory that everyone should "sit offensive players on Thursdays due to poor performance."
Since you seem to want to nit pick on word meanings....

You said "sit" while my original post said "discount" their performance and possibly replace with a marginally less productive player.

:shrug:
it's true, they might not literally be sitting.

although, to replace them with another player you generally have to take them out of your line up.

 

Sarnoff

Footballguy
msudaisy26 said:
I don't have all the stats but I would generally disagree with this. Are you going to hold the bad fantasy performance of the Pats, and Jets because it was a Thursday game? I would like to think it had more to do with the fact Brady had no weapons, the Jets defense is good, the Jets also had a rookie quarterback and the weather was awful for a game. I would say if you put the same conditions on a Sunday the game would have looked the same.

What about last year on Thanksgiving, we had monster performances every where. Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Matt Stafford, Patriots defense, Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, RG3, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley and I am sure I am missing more. Are you telling me we could add to those stats if they played on Sunday that week?

It is a myth, it has more to do with the players and the team then the short week. Just the contract year myth.
Thanksgiving is usually exempted from the Thursday Night Curse. It's a special case. Regular-old inseason Thursday night games on short rest are a different story.

 

Resident A

Footballguy
Last week's Thursday game was played in the rain and featured the NFL's worst offense vs a team missing basically all of its playmakers. That game being a stinker had nothing to do with the day it was played on.

There may be a downtick for Philly/KC due to shirt prep time & little rest, but I'm still starting Vick & DeSean in all leagues I have them.

 
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msudaisy26

Footballguy
msudaisy26 said:
I don't have all the stats but I would generally disagree with this. Are you going to hold the bad fantasy performance of the Pats, and Jets because it was a Thursday game? I would like to think it had more to do with the fact Brady had no weapons, the Jets defense is good, the Jets also had a rookie quarterback and the weather was awful for a game. I would say if you put the same conditions on a Sunday the game would have looked the same.

What about last year on Thanksgiving, we had monster performances every where. Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Matt Stafford, Patriots defense, Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, RG3, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley and I am sure I am missing more. Are you telling me we could add to those stats if they played on Sunday that week?

It is a myth, it has more to do with the players and the team then the short week. Just the contract year myth.
Thanksgiving is usually exempted from the Thursday Night Curse. It's a special case. Regular-old inseason Thursday night games on short rest are a different story.
Right up there with the Madden Curse, the Easter Bunny, and the Boogie Man

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
Still a myth. McCoy, good game, Charles good game, D. Jax average game could be depending on the rest of the game. Only Vick and Bowe are not producing and seeing the way Kansas City is running this offense I am not sure if we should rely on Bowe

 

need2know

Footballguy
Mccoy and Charles say screw your theory . Yes I have them both on the same team in a money league. And yes I know you don't care. Giggity

 

zoonation

Footballguy
I usually do a 4.5% reduction on Dodds projections for all late Sunday games. except if it's a West Coast team playing at 1PM their local time. For Denver, I will do a 2.1% reduction if they are playing the late afternoon game, but a 1.34% increase if it's a early afternoon game. For Sunday night games, I'll adjust Dodds projections up by 1.1% except for Kickers, who I just leave as is.
Lol.

 

zoonation

Footballguy
I don't have all the stats but I would generally disagree with this. Are you going to hold the bad fantasy performance of the Pats, and Jets because it was a Thursday game? I would like to think it had more to do with the fact Brady had no weapons, the Jets defense is good, the Jets also had a rookie quarterback and the weather was awful for a game. I would say if you put the same conditions on a Sunday the game would have looked the same.

What about last year on Thanksgiving, we had monster performances every where. Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Matt Stafford, Patriots defense, Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, RG3, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley and I am sure I am missing more. Are you telling me we could add to those stats if they played on Sunday that week?

It is a myth, it has more to do with the players and the team then the short week. Just the contract year myth.
Thanksgiving is usually exempted from the Thursday Night Curse. It's a special case. Regular-old inseason Thursday night games on short rest are a different story.
So who has the advantage? The offense or the defence?

Bowe didn't produce tonight because he was double covered the whole game. Not because itwas Thursday.

 

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