Division Record Predictions (1 Viewer)

[Deamon]

The schedule coming out today inspired me to throw together some predictions with the schedule in mind. Obviously the draft/injuries/preseason may change these. I have a bet with a friend whose will be closest, anything I should drastically change?

AFC EAST

New England (12-4) Easiest schedule in nfl, should repeat last years success.

NY Jets (9-7) Tebow will win them a few games, but otherwise no real improvement over last years 8-8 team

Buffalo (8-8) Brutal start to the season, but schedule eases up near the end. Oh ya, and Mario.

Miami (7-9) This could change based on who they draft, but a tough division hampers them.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore (10-6)- I see a bit of a let down from last years 12 win season, esp with a rice holdout

Pittsburgh (10-6)- can never pick between them and balt, so again will give them the same record.

Cincinnati (9-7)- last year wasn't a fluke, but they'll come back to earth with the same record as last year.

Cleveland (3-13)- Extremely tough schedule for a team in serious rebuild mode.

AFC SOUTH

Houston (9-7)- Huge losses on defense, but they still play in an awful division.

Tennessee (8-8)- Another average season saved by CJ. Locker will hit some bumps.

Jacksonville (5-11)- mjd will slow down sometime. Not enough weapons to keep up.

Indianapolis (3-13)- Total rebuild, and luck needs some time to develop.

AFC WEST

Denver (9-7)- Manning greatly improves them. considered 10/11 wins, But they have a BRUTAL schedule.

San Diego (9-7))- different looking team, hopefully sparks them to get over the hump.

Oakland (7-9)- lost some key players, didn't gain many.

Kansas City (7-9)- Cassel is no Rivers or Manning.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia (11-5)- pretty favourable schedule. Whole offseason for talent to gel.

Dallas (9-7)- should improve over last years underachieving season. lots of offensive weapons.

NY Giants (8-8)- hardest stregth of schedule in the nfl. plus a target on their back.

Washington (6-10)- improvement over last year, RG3 sets this team in the right direction.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay (12-4)- no 15 win season again as other teams catch up to their talent level. still a great team.

Chicago (9-7)- added some key guys on offense and defense. much lower if forte doesnt get his contract

Detroit (8-8)- For some reason I see a bit of a let down from last season

Minnesota (3-13)- I feel bad for AP. Rebuild mode AGAIN.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta (10-6)- unfortunately get no saints games before week 10. coaches/players will all be back by then.

New Orleans (8-8)- Talent alone will keep this team winning some games... but not enough.

Carolina (8-8)- Cam continues to improve this team. Tampa and Carolina will take over this div eventually.

Tampa Bay (8-8)- added a ton of weapons to their team this off season. Team on the rise.

NFC WEST

San Francisco (11-5)- come back to earth a little this season, plus a much improved division this year.

Arizona (9-7)- great finish to last year should carry over.

St. Louis (7-9). - awful year last year, but new coach and plethora of draft picks get them back on track.

Seattle (4-12)- at least their new jerseys are flashy.

 

[biju]

I'd bet the house that Seattle ends up with more than 4 wins. They probably get 4 wins in their own division.

 

[Donsmith753]

I'll be shocked if Miami wins that many games.

 

[mjr]

I'll be shocked if Miami wins that many games.

Was going to post the same thing. Also agree Seattle will win more than 4. I don't think Luck will win a lot of games for Indy right out of the gates, but I think they'll win more than 3.

 

[JHuber77]

I'd bet the house that Seattle ends up with more than 4 wins. They probably get 4 wins in their own division.

not within thier own division.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'd bet the house that Seattle ends up with more than 4 wins. They probably get 4 wins in their own division.

You see them going 4-2 in their divion games? It's possible but I wouldn't call it "probable".

 

[cheese]

Good starting point...

I think Detroit is still on the rise. 8-8 would be the absolute floor for them if Stafford stays healthy. I'd lean 10 wins.

I won't be surprised if TB picks #1 next year. What reason do we have to believe their defense won't horrible? Winning 8 games in a division with the Saints/Falcons?

I'm with you on Colts that low and most of the rest.

 

[Wadsworth]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

 

[sho nuff]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I'd bet the house that Seattle ends up with more than 4 wins. They probably get 4 wins in their own division.

not within thier own division.

I think Seattle challenges SF for the division. That is a very well rounded team that has solid additions this offseason.

 

[cheese]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

 

[Koya]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

I tend to agree. While SOS may be tougher to utilize for some fantasy purposes, we have some idea of the very good teams and some idea of the very bad and that sheds a little light on how things will pan out. As stated, not 100%, but hardless meaningless imo.

 

[sho nuff]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

SOS in April is meaningless because we have not had a draft...a camp...a practice whatsoever.At this point last year we did not know what was up with Manning actually.

 

[Wadsworth]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.

We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.

People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.

Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

That first place schedule effects two games. Do you really think the Colts had a bad season because of those two games?Cincy and San Fran had improved seasons because they played better, not because of the schedule and certainly not because of how the schedule looked in April based on 2010 records.

 

[ex-ghost]

Seahawks win at least 8 games.

 

[Deamon]

I'll be shocked if Miami wins that many games.

Ya, I probably over estimated them a little bit. Just because they finished the year so strong, I figured they might pull off 7 wins. Maybe I'll adjust them a bit lower and Seattle a bit higher.

 

[Deamon]

Seahawks win at least 8 games.

Ya I just think St. Louis and Arizona will improve. Probably didn't give seattle enough credit, but also they were the last team I did that for and I had to get to 256 total wins. I'll adjust for my main one, thanks!

 

[Deamon]

I'd bet the house that Seattle ends up with more than 4 wins. They probably get 4 wins in their own division.

You see them going 4-2 in their divion games? It's possible but I wouldn't call it "probable".

I guess I can see them going 3-3 in their div. But non div games are Carolina, Dallas, GB, Chicago, Detroit, Minn, NE, Miami, Jets, Buff. Not overly easy, could see them going 4-6 in those.

 

[PatsFanCT]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

I tend to agree. While SOS may be tougher to utilize for some fantasy purposes, we have some idea of the very good teams and some idea of the very bad and that sheds a little light on how things will pan out. As stated, not 100%, but hardless meaningless imo.

The SOS is always a meaningless stat.Every team plays their division twice and two other divisions, then two games with teams that finished in the same position as they did last season. While one division may have a much easier schedule than another division, every team in each division has pretty much the same SOS. If any team is effected, it's because they are the worst team in their division and have to play tougher teams. In which case, SOS is still meaningless.

 

[Shutout]

This is pointless.

I remember the year the Saints went to the Super Bowl, how people called in all offseason and they, the show hosts, everyone and their brother thought the Saints were about a 4-5 win team.

You just never know. Stuff like this is why Vegas has a big house and most of us have smaller ones.

 

[Deamon]

This is pointless.I remember the year the Saints went to the Super Bowl, how people called in all offseason and they, the show hosts, everyone and their brother thought the Saints were about a 4-5 win team. You just never know. Stuff like this is why Vegas has a big house and most of us have smaller ones.

I'm not saying its going to be correct, but it was for fun. I know anything can happen, its just a bet I have with a friend each year before, and was looking for some input.

 

[womb]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

I tend to agree. While SOS may be tougher to utilize for some fantasy purposes, we have some idea of the very good teams and some idea of the very bad and that sheds a little light on how things will pan out. As stated, not 100%, but hardless meaningless imo.

The SOS is always a meaningless stat.Every team plays their division twice and two other divisions, then two games with teams that finished in the same position as they did last season. While one division may have a much easier schedule than another division, every team in each division has pretty much the same SOS. If any team is effected, it's because they are the worst team in their division and have to play tougher teams. In which case, SOS is still meaningless.

Schedule makes a difference. Perhaps not the stat called SOS, but the schedule itself does make a difference.Take SF for example:Week #11 @ New Orleans - they could faced the Saints earlier for a better advantage.Week #12 @ St Louis - do they fly back to SF and fly back to STL? How many hours is that?Week #13 vs MiamiWeek #14 @ New England - yippie another cross country trip to play at 8:20 pm game on December 16. I bet it will not be warm.Week #15 @ Seattle - yet another road trip.I bet SF could squeeze in more wins if they put the Saints game on week 2, play at home versus New England in December and go to an away game to Miami, and get one of those divisional games in that strech to be at home, swapping with an earlier home game.New England host 3 teams from the warm weather San Francisco, Houston and Miami in December. The first two are 8 pm games. Now, I am a fan and am biassed and am glad.It does make a difference.

 

[PatsFanCT]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

I tend to agree. While SOS may be tougher to utilize for some fantasy purposes, we have some idea of the very good teams and some idea of the very bad and that sheds a little light on how things will pan out. As stated, not 100%, but hardless meaningless imo.

The SOS is always a meaningless stat.Every team plays their division twice and two other divisions, then two games with teams that finished in the same position as they did last season. While one division may have a much easier schedule than another division, every team in each division has pretty much the same SOS. If any team is effected, it's because they are the worst team in their division and have to play tougher teams. In which case, SOS is still meaningless.

Schedule makes a difference. Perhaps not the stat called SOS, but the schedule itself does make a difference.Take SF for example:Week #11 @ New Orleans - they could faced the Saints earlier for a better advantage.Week #12 @ St Louis - do they fly back to SF and fly back to STL? How many hours is that?Week #13 vs MiamiWeek #14 @ New England - yippie another cross country trip to play at 8:20 pm game on December 16. I bet it will not be warm.Week #15 @ Seattle - yet another road trip.I bet SF could squeeze in more wins if they put the Saints game on week 2, play at home versus New England in December and go to an away game to Miami, and get one of those divisional games in that strech to be at home, swapping with an earlier home game.New England host 3 teams from the warm weather San Francisco, Houston and Miami in December. The first two are 8 pm games. Now, I am a fan and am biassed and am glad.It does make a difference.

Weather is the other thing that's way over-rated. Players can grow up in the north, playing for cold weather colleges, then get drafted by Miami and people think they can't handle cold weather games. Favre was just the opposite, growing up and playing in the south, but yet never having a problem playing in Green Bay. Weather can effect certain players, but I never bought into the whole "they're a warm weather team that has to play in a cold weather stadium".Hell, even the cold weather teams only have to play about a quarter of their season in cold or snowy weather.

 

[cheese]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

I tend to agree. While SOS may be tougher to utilize for some fantasy purposes, we have some idea of the very good teams and some idea of the very bad and that sheds a little light on how things will pan out. As stated, not 100%, but hardless meaningless imo.

The SOS is always a meaningless stat.Every team plays their division twice and two other divisions, then two games with teams that finished in the same position as they did last season. While one division may have a much easier schedule than another division, every team in each division has pretty much the same SOS. If any team is effected, it's because they are the worst team in their division and have to play tougher teams. In which case, SOS is still meaningless.

Sounds good. Go ahead and sign my team up to play the NFC West next year and the other 4th place teams. It's all random anyway.

 

[PatsFanCT]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

I tend to agree. While SOS may be tougher to utilize for some fantasy purposes, we have some idea of the very good teams and some idea of the very bad and that sheds a little light on how things will pan out. As stated, not 100%, but hardless meaningless imo.

The SOS is always a meaningless stat.Every team plays their division twice and two other divisions, then two games with teams that finished in the same position as they did last season. While one division may have a much easier schedule than another division, every team in each division has pretty much the same SOS. If any team is effected, it's because they are the worst team in their division and have to play tougher teams. In which case, SOS is still meaningless.

Sounds good. Go ahead and sign my team up to play the NFC West next year and the other 4th place teams. It's all random anyway.

If your team plays the NCF West next year, than so will all the other teams in your division. How does that translate to being tougher?

 

[johnadams]

I'll be shocked if Miami wins that many games.

Ya, I probably over estimated them a little bit. Just because they finished the year so strong, I figured they might pull off 7 wins. Maybe I'll adjust them a bit lower and Seattle a bit higher.

Why so low on Seattle? That's a pretty big miss for a team that closed the season really well. SEA finished 5-3 with some good wins and two tough divisional losses by a combined five points to end the season. Not sure what you see in SEA to get you thinking they will take a huge step backwards, but they addressed their biggest need, QB, already, and have one of the most exciting young Ds with what I think is the best secondary in the NFL. There's going to be at least two teams from the NFC West in the playoffs this year and SEA has a very good shot at winning the division outright.

 

[The Dude]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I disagree with SOS being meaningless as well - but it does need to be put in context.

 

[Deamon]

I'll be shocked if Miami wins that many games.

Ya, I probably over estimated them a little bit. Just because they finished the year so strong, I figured they might pull off 7 wins. Maybe I'll adjust them a bit lower and Seattle a bit higher.

Why so low on Seattle? That's a pretty big miss for a team that closed the season really well. SEA finished 5-3 with some good wins and two tough divisional losses by a combined five points to end the season. Not sure what you see in SEA to get you thinking they will take a huge step backwards, but they addressed their biggest need, QB, already, and have one of the most exciting young Ds with what I think is the best secondary in the NFL. There's going to be at least two teams from the NFC West in the playoffs this year and SEA has a very good shot at winning the division outright.

I have adjusted. I just don't see them as a playoff team this year. They have some tough non divisional games, and I see great improvement from St. Louis and even Arizona. I've bumped them and dropped other wins elsewhere though. Only had 4 wins left to dish out when I originally did it haha.

 

[Deamon]

Adjusted after a little more thought:

AFC EAST

New England (12-4) Easiest schedule in nfl, should repeat last years success.

NY Jets (9-7) No major improvement over last years 8-8 team

Buffalo (8-8) Brutal start to the season, but schedule eases up near the end

Miami (4-12) This could change based on who they draft but tough division hampers them.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore (10-6)- I see a bit of a let down from last years 12 win season.

Pittsburgh (10-6)- can never pick between them and balt, so same record it is.

Cincinnati (9-7)- cooled down last year, but should continue some success.

Cleveland (2-14)- Extremely tough schedule for a team in serious rebuild mode.

AFC SOUTH

Houston (9-7)- Huge losses on defense, but they still play in an awful division.

Tennessee (8-8)- Another average season saved by CJ. Locker will hit some bumps.

Jacksonville (5-11)- mjd will slow down sometime. Not enough weapons to keep up.

Indianapolis (4-12)- Total rebuild, and luck needs some time to develop.

AFC WEST

Denver (9-7)- PM greatly improves team- BRUTAL schedule keeps them from 10 wins

San Diego (9-7))- different looking team, hopefully sparks them to get over the hump.

Oakland (7-9)- lost some key players, didn't gain many.

Kansas City (7-9)- Cassel is no Rivers or Manning.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia (11-5)- pretty favourable schedule. Whole offseason for talent to gel.

Dallas (9-7)- should improve over last years season. loads of offensive weapons.

NY Giants (8-8)- hardest stregth of schedule in the nfl. plus a target on their back.

Washington (6-10)- improvement over last year, RG3 sets this team in the right direction.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay (12-4)- Other teams catching up to their talent level. sorta.

Chicago (9-7)- added some key guys on offense and defense.

Detroit (9-7)- For some reason I see a bit of a let down from last season

Minnesota (3-13)- I feel bad for AP. Rebuild mode AGAIN.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta (10-6)- No saints games before week 10. coaches/players will all be back by then.

New Orleans (8-8)- Bounties/suspensions will be a LOT to overcome. Still talented.

Carolina (8-8)- Cam continues to improve this team. still young as atl/no age.

Tampa Bay (6-10)- added a ton of weapons to their team this off season. Team on the rise.

NFC WEST

San Francisco (11-5)- come back to earth a little bit and a much improved div.

Arizona (9-7)- great finish to last year should carry over.

Seattle (8-8)- young team showing some promise.

St. Louis (7-9) - new coach and plethora of draft picks get them back on track.

 

[Shutout]

This is pointless.I remember the year the Saints went to the Super Bowl, how people called in all offseason and they, the show hosts, everyone and their brother thought the Saints were about a 4-5 win team. You just never know. Stuff like this is why Vegas has a big house and most of us have smaller ones.

I'm not saying its going to be correct, but it was for fun. I know anything can happen, its just a bet I have with a friend each year before, and was looking for some input.

Sorry. I didn't mean to sound negative about it. Was more of a way of saying "I don't think I can do this very good. But, sure, its fun to sit and work through the whole schedule. Looking at your predicitons, I would probably agree with where you ended up. It looks well thought out.My thoughts:AFCI don't think Miami is good enough to win 7. I think they are more 5 or 6 wins.I think Cleveland is improving enough to win a game or two more than you have given them.I would flip Cincy and Pittsburgh. The way the Steelers play (Ben especially) and the injury concern at RB, with a bye week so early, I think they could literally be limping at the end of the season and Cincy is a young up and coming team. It wouldn't surprise me to see them 10-6 and Pitt 9-7.I think you are selling Houston a bit short. The Colts are down and out, the Jags have offensive issues, rushing the passer issues, coach creativity issues, etc. I just think somehow, they end up being a 10-11 win team because they can reasonably get 5 of those game in the division.This is just the gut, but I think this is a year where San Diego is focussed early and throughout and they become a team that goes something like 11-5.NFCI couldn't begin to tell you how the NFC East will really shake out but it seems like its less likey to be won by 2 games by any of those teams. I think it might be a little tighter.The Arizona defense is for real and they showed a lot of imporvement as the season progressed. I do not know if it can get them that 10th win, but if I was doing what you are doing and looking at each game matchup, i might go back and rethink that to see if it makes a difference in any games for you. I honestly expect this unit to be a top 8-12 defense this year.

 

[cheese]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

I tend to agree. While SOS may be tougher to utilize for some fantasy purposes, we have some idea of the very good teams and some idea of the very bad and that sheds a little light on how things will pan out. As stated, not 100%, but hardless meaningless imo.

The SOS is always a meaningless stat.Every team plays their division twice and two other divisions, then two games with teams that finished in the same position as they did last season. While one division may have a much easier schedule than another division, every team in each division has pretty much the same SOS. If any team is effected, it's because they are the worst team in their division and have to play tougher teams. In which case, SOS is still meaningless.

Sounds good. Go ahead and sign my team up to play the NFC West next year and the other 4th place teams. It's all random anyway.

If your team plays the NCF West next year, than so will all the other teams in your division. How does that translate to being tougher?

Because the point is to get wins. Which means playing easier teams is good. I can't believe that's being disputed.Whether the rest of the division also gets more wins (as in the case of the AFCN last year) is relevant, but it means less because of the 2 wild cards. If I say, you can have 4 automatic wins, but so do the other 3 teams in your division. Would you not take it? Of course you would, it puts you in great position for the wild card. By the same logic, why would you not be interested in taking 4 (or 3 in some cases) LIKELY wins even if the rest of your division gets them too?My only point is that a team's schedule being "easy" is an advantage for their expected wins (the point of this thread) regardless of how it impacts the schedule of their division opponents.

 

[PatsFanCT]

The Strength of Schedule argument at this point is meaningless.

I don't agree at all.Last year people pointed to SOS as the main reason SF would jump into the NFC picture.We brought up the easy early schedule over and over about the Bengals being a sleeper.People said the Colts had no chance with no Manning and a 1st place schedule.Is it 100%? Of course not, but it's not nothing.

I tend to agree. While SOS may be tougher to utilize for some fantasy purposes, we have some idea of the very good teams and some idea of the very bad and that sheds a little light on how things will pan out. As stated, not 100%, but hardless meaningless imo.

The SOS is always a meaningless stat.Every team plays their division twice and two other divisions, then two games with teams that finished in the same position as they did last season. While one division may have a much easier schedule than another division, every team in each division has pretty much the same SOS. If any team is effected, it's because they are the worst team in their division and have to play tougher teams. In which case, SOS is still meaningless.

Sounds good. Go ahead and sign my team up to play the NFC West next year and the other 4th place teams. It's all random anyway.

If your team plays the NCF West next year, than so will all the other teams in your division. How does that translate to being tougher?

Because the point is to get wins. Which means playing easier teams is good. I can't believe that's being disputed.Whether the rest of the division also gets more wins (as in the case of the AFCN last year) is relevant, but it means less because of the 2 wild cards. If I say, you can have 4 automatic wins, but so do the other 3 teams in your division. Would you not take it? Of course you would, it puts you in great position for the wild card. By the same logic, why would you not be interested in taking 4 (or 3 in some cases) LIKELY wins even if the rest of your division gets them too?My only point is that a team's schedule being "easy" is an advantage for their expected wins (the point of this thread) regardless of how it impacts the schedule of their division opponents.

Easy wins is only relevant to the strength of your team, which negates the whole SOS theory. The point is to win your division. If you are playing the same teams as the other teams in your division, then regardless of your teams strength or weakness, you have the same opportunity as the others to win it. How is SOS relevant then?