Do FBGs posters over-rate top young talent? (1 Viewer)

[jerseyh8r]

Just wanted to get a possible consensus.

Last season many were touting the likes of JJ Arrington and Cedric Benson. This season DeAngelo Williams seems to be getting alot of play on the board, while there is less love for Bush (maybe deservingly so). Do posters just get so invested in projecting young college players (esp. when the NFL draft takes place) that they carry over all of those sentiments when we go into the off-season and project for the season ahead? Do they tend to try to find an under-rated player in the draft (i.e. DWill vs Bush) and then continue to "stick to their guns" to try to be that guy who was "right about player X"?

I voted yes. But....IMO, these same players that burn people in the first season or two (when their expectations are unrealistic) become value plays in years 3 or 4 when people don't want to "waste" a pick on the guy again.

PS: Targeting DeShaun Foster this season.

 

[bmattd]

Yes, but this is a common theme to many fantasy football participants. It's the "grass is always greener on the other side" scenario where people overrate players based on potential and not performance. Another big part of it is that nobody wants to be the one who missed the boat on a potential superstar so they overpay for an unknown talent. More often than not, the veteran players will far surpass the youthful counterparts. There are exceptions...

 

[Chase Stuart]

Don't have time to add anything but this. A good read.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Don't have time to add anything but this. A good read.

Another very good read from Drinen.

 

[J-Rock]

Everyone is excited about the next big thing.

 

[Gr00vus]

Missing Poll option:

The correct answer is

C) Hell Yes

 

[Kit Fisto]

My vote was yes, due largely to the hype Eric Shelton received around these boards last summer.

Ooops. :X

 

[Fullback Fro]

Paging JoeT . . . . .

 

[Kit Fisto]

Don't have time to add anything but this. A good read.

A shining example of why we need separate redraft and dynasty forums. Drinen's article is great for redrafters, but does not apply to dynasty.

 

[CA_7]

My vote was yes, due largely to the hype Eric Shelton received around these boards last summer.

 

[Warhogs]

I think not just here but anywhere the answer is yes for redraft leagues and no for dynasty formats.

 

[jerseyh8r]

My vote was yes, due largely to the hype Eric Shelton received around these boards last summer.

Ooops. :X

Wow....forgot all about that one.

 

[Bankerguy]

I hate generalizing. However, yes there are a lot of folks pimping the next big thing.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I think the pendulum is swinging back towards valuing proven vets.

The recent performances by guys like Muhsin, Kennison, Galloway, Glenn, Trent, C-Mart etc are making it harder to find quality vets late in the draft. I think younger guys are starting to be rated more correctly, and in time will start to be underrated, much like how it used to be when Drinen wrote the arcticle Chase linked.

 

[John Mamula]

Most people here definitely do.

 

[thayman]

it's the bright shiny new toy in the window........everyone wants to talk about it

 

[MLBrandow]

Should have asked "are FBGers overrating Reggie Bush?"

 

[fruity pebbles]

Yes for redrafts, even more so for dynasties.

 

[EBF]

Yep. The Williams hype is big right now. We'll see if he delivers.

The same goes for guys like Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams.

 

[-OZ-]

Some of this comes from the prevailing opinion that we all know talent when we see it and can't be wrong.

Yet, NFL scouts make more doing this than anyone here (well, maybe not Joe), and they still draft Mike Williams top 10.

 

[KCC]

Don't have time to add anything but this. A good read.

Great stuff. Any similar analysis for RBs?

 

[jurb26]

Personally, I think people overlook rookies around here in redrafts and overvalue them in dynasty leagues.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Some of this comes from the prevailing opinion that we all know talent when we see it and can't be wrong.

Yet, NFL scouts make more doing this than anyone here (well, maybe not Joe), and they still draft Mike Williams top 10.

That was the Lions. We may know more about evaluating talent than them

 

[EBF]

Personally, I think people overlook rookies around here in redrafts and overvalue them in dynasty leagues.

I'd amend that to say that people overrate the top rookies, but underrate the second and third tier players. Guys like Maurice Drew, Marcedes Lewis, and Derek Hagan typically offer very nice value in initial dynasty drafts, particularly when you consider where their more-hyped rookie counterparts tend to go.