Do Teams Have An Advantage Playing With A QB On A Rookie Contract? (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

There was a sidebar discussion in the Lamar Jackson thread, in which I posted:

still think another correlation is QB pay / salary cap hit. Mahomes and Stafford had big paychecks in the last couple of Super Bowls, but IIRC, other SB winning QBs were generally not at the top of the market. I know people have discussed and debated this, but I will put that on my things to do list to research more thoroughly (if I can dig up the salary data).

LINK
...Yahoo Sports compiled and analyzed 10 years of data on quarterback salaries, experience, performance and team success. Using numbers from Spotrac and Football Outsiders, we designed a metric to compare a given quarterback's performance to a salary-based expected performance. We hypothesized that we’d find a strong correlation between that metric — performance relative to salary — and winning.

Instead, we found a relatively weak correlation (R2 = 0.17), and a stronger one (R2 = 0.44) between QB performance alone and team success.

...Super Bowl champ. Of the NFL’s last 10 title winners, six paid their quarterbacks above the league average; four paid below it. ... On average, they paid smack dab in the league’s 50th percentile.

Like anything else, a small sample size can skew things. IMO, what Yahoo researched would not hold true going back to the start of the salary cap / free agency era in 1994 (essentially triple the data set they used). Also, I believe there is a correlation to getting to conference games and the SB (ie, Final Four teams . . . not just SB winning teams). That's set is 4 times the data. So 3 x 4 = 12 times the data. Will have to dig into this more in the off season.

I have since done the research and crunched the numbers. Here's what I did.Using contract data from Spotrac and OverTheCap, I compiled the salary cap data for QB dating back to the start of the salary cap era in 1994. The more recent the season, the more accurate the data is. The past 20 seasons or so are extremely accurate. The seasons before that are mostly accurate (there was less data on backup QB from the 90s). My data set includes ONLY THE SALARY CAP CHARGE DATA of each QB for that particular season FOR QB THAT MADE THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES. Note that means I DID NOT use AAV of contracts, so if a player has a contract that averages $40M a year but in the year he made the Final Four had a $5M cap charge, he is in my spreadsheet at $5M not $40M. Most of the QB mega contracts these days have greatly reduced cap hits early in the contract (when the player raked in tons of bonus money). For example, there have only been 81 instances where a team took a cap hit of $20M+ for a QB. More teams are pushing those cap hits into future cap years. For example, from 2018-2020, there were 44 contracts (roughly 15 per season) that commanded cap hits of $20M+. In 2021, there were 9. In 2022, there were only 7. (As of now, there are 11 for 2023 if teams don't modify them.)

I did not do what Yahoo! did in their research (comparing salary and experience to create a formula for expected performance). What I have is the raw data . . . these teams got as far as they did taking the cap charge they did. One of the reasons I don't totally agree with what Yahoo! did (as I understand it) is they looked at all contracts. I still contend that rookie contracts (or under market QB contracts) are both worth more than value contracts at other positions and also are an integral part of an effective roster building strategy. The logic being, getting premium production from an underpaid QB leaves more money to spend on other positions. Maybe I am confusing what Yahoo! was exploring, but if they considered all rookie QB contracts (for players that ended up on terrible teams), that would drag down the results for the value of a good team with a top QB on a rookie QB. I did not look at all contracts . . . only the ones for the teams that advanced to the conference championship games.

For each team, I considered the QB that carried the highest salary cap hit on the roster (since the team had to account for that player, whether he remained the starter, missed time with injury, was benched, etc.). For example, I used Drew Bledsoe as the QB for the 2001 Patriots (who had the 5th highest cap hit for a QB that season), even though Tom Brady ended up playing the majority of the time. Here were some key takeaways and observations.

- Of the 10 QB that have had salary cap charges of $30M+, only one (10%) has made the Final Four (Mahomes this season).
- Of the 26 QB that have had salary cap charges of $25M+, only four (15%) have made the Final Four (Mahomes 2022, Garoppolo 2021, Brady 2020, Rodgers 2019).
- Of the 81 QB that have had salary cap charges of $20M+, 12 (15%) have made the Final Four. Of those 12, the only players that did it more than once (at a charge of $20M+) were Brady, Rodgers, and Garoppolo.
- The QB with the highest salary cap charge made the Final Four 5 times in 29 seasons (17%).
- QB ranked in the Top 5 for salary cap charges made the Final Four 23 times, meaning a Top 5 QB had a 16% chance of making it.
- QB ranked in the Top 10 for salary cap charges made the Final Four 46 times, meaning a Top 10 QB had also had a 16% chance of making it.
- QB ranked outside of the Top 20 for salary cap charges made the Final Four 24 times, which was once more than players in the Top 5.
- QB ranked outside the Top 40 for salary cap charges made the Final Four 5 times, which was the same as the number of times as the player with the highest cap charge.
- In the past 10 seasons, there were 9 QB ranked in the Top 5 (22.5%) . . . but 12 QB not ranked in the Top 20 (30%).
- In the past 10 seasons, 5 times there were 2 QB NOT ranked in the Top 20 for salary cap hits. That only happened one other time in 19 other seasons.
- In the past 10 seasons, 4 times there was a QB NOT ranked in the Top 40 for salary cap hits. That also only happened once in 19 other seasons.
- Over all 29 seasons, the average salary cap ranking for SB winning QB was 14.9. The average salary cap ranking for SB losing QB was exactly the same (14.9).
- The average salary cap ranking for all QB that lost in the conference championship was marginally better at 14.7.

Total Top 5 QB in Final 4:
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 4
1 QB - 15
0 QB - 10

Total Top 10 QB in Final 4:
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 4 (2016, 2007, 2004, 1994)
2 QB - 12
1 QB - 10
0 QB - 3 (2017, 2010, 2000)

Total Number of QB Not in Top 20:
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 6 (5 in the past 10 seasons)
1 QB - 12
0 QB - 11

Top 5 QB in each Final 4 (2013 - 2022):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 2
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 3

Top 10 QB in each Final 4 (2013 - 2022):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 1
2 QB - 4
1 QB - 4
0 QB - 1

Number of QB Not in Top 20 (2013 - 2022):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 5
1 QB - 2
0 QB - 3

Top 5 QB in each Final 4 (2003 - 2012):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 2
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 3

Top 10 QB in each Final 4 (2003 - 2012):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 2
2 QB - 3
1 QB - 4
0 QB - 1

Number of QB Not in Top 20 (2003 - 2012):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 0
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 0

Top 5 QB in each Final 4 (1994 - 2002):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 0
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 4

Top 10 QB in each Final 4 (1994 - 2002):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 1
2 QB - 5
1 QB - 2
0 QB - 1

Number of QB Not in Top 20 (1994 - 2002):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 1
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 3

The average salary cap hit ranking overall is 14.8 (across 116 teams in 29 seasons). Over the past 10 seasons, the average per season has been: 22.25, 13.25, 19.25, 23, 19.5, 21.5, 8.25, 11.5, 20, and 24.

Based on all of this, it would be a little premature to conclude with certainty that rookie contracts give teams a decided advantage, but on the surface it does appear that in the past 10 years more teams have made the Final 4 with players ranked lower on the cap charge rankings than in the nearly 2 decades before then. Of the 40 teams from the past 10 seasons, 17 of them (42.5%) had QB with a cap charge of under $10M, 14 were under $7.5M (35%), 7 were under $5M (17.5%), and 5 were under $3M (7.5%).

Of course, a counter argument will be that 4 of the past 5 SB winners had QB with cap charges of $20M+ (as did 9 of the past 20 Final Four QB). In that same time frame, there were 10 QB with charges under $10M. In the most recent 5 seasons, there were 7 Top 10 contracts vs. 7 Not Top 20 contracts (out of the 20 teams involved). It appears teams are winning either paying close to the top of the market or nowhere near the top of the market . . . with not many teams in the middle contract range.

There is too much information to post all of it, but if people have questions or are interested other comparisons, let me know and I can try to figure them out and post the results.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

There is too much information to post all of it, but if people have questions or are interested other comparisons, let me know and I can try to figure them out and post the results.

That is a lot to take in and focuses' in on salary VS. success tied to the QB which is excellent.
Great work but neither Yahoo or you addressed HOW a team acquired a top QB.
Many SB winning QBs are not with the same team that drafted them so fo anyone or team looking to replicate a SB winning formula they would be most interested in HOW a SB winning QB was acquired and then factor in salary.
Once again, takes nothing away from the work you did which is fantastic, but I think the big question is HOW did those SB winning teams or top-four teams acquire their QBs before factoring in salary.
It would be more a more complex formula but you did a lot of heavy lifting with your work, thanks.

 

[Anarchy99]

It won’t take me long to piece together how many teams a player was on, what # contract he was on, where he was drafted, etc. There will be some occasions where it will be tough to determine which QB to use. For example, Foles or Wentz for PHI? Who to use for 2000 BAL?

 

[zed2283]

I can see you did a lot of work here, nice job. I contend that the way to build a championship team these days is to not overpay at QB.

I think what would make this more relevant and valuable (I don't know how hard it would be and am not criticizing your work) is if rather than look at the salary cap charge, look at the % of salary cap used up by the QB charge.

 

[Anarchy99]

I can see you did a lot of work here, nice job. I contend that the way to build a championship team these days is to not overpay at QB.

I think what would make this more relevant and valuable (I don't know how hard it would be and am not criticizing your work) is if rather than look at the salary cap charge, look at the % of salary cap used up by the QB charge.

I thought about that, but when I started researching things the % of the cap utilization numbers weren't easily available. I since found lists with that data, so I may double back and list that as well. Also, using only a ranking probably isn't all that pertinent either. Some years, the #1 cap hit was 5X the #20 ranked player and 2-3X the #10 ranked player, but other years there wasn't much difference.

 

[jabarony]

Does Brady skew these #s a bit for all of the discounts he took with NE? His cap hit wasn't really equitable to his production.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Before Mahomes (17%) just did it, the Super Bowl winning QB never had a salary that was more than 12.2% of his team’s cap (Brady was at that percentage twice.)

Stale article but has the Cap Hit % of all final 4 QBs 2013-2021:

Examining QB cap hits among championship contenders for the past decade

 

[Anarchy99]

Based on % of team salary cap, here was the breakdown across all 29 seasons (among Final Four teams).

1-2%: 18 (15.5%)
3-4%: 18 (15.5%)
5-6%: 15 (12.9%)
7-9%: 28 (24.1%%)
10-14%: 31 (26.7%)
15%+: 6 (5.2%)
Under 10%: 79 (68.1%)
10%+: 37 (31.9%) (Peyton Manning was the highest at 21% in 2003)

Over the past 10 seasons:

1-2%: 8 (20%)
3-4%: 7 (17.5%)
5-6%: 2 (5%)
7-9%: 5 (12.5%)
10-14%: 15 (37.5%)
15%+: 3 (7.5%)
Under 10%: 20 (50%)
10%+: 20 (50%)

 

[humpback]

Does Brady skew these #s a bit for all of the discounts he took with NE? His cap hit wasn't really equitable to his production.

Probably, and that's kind of the point. Brady at a discount is far more valuable than Brady at the top of the market.

 

[Anarchy99]

Does Brady skew these #s a bit for all of the discounts he took with NE? His cap hit wasn't really equitable to his production.

Brady appearances in this exercise . . .

2020 - 12.25% of team salary cap
2018 - 12.21%
2017 - 12.21%
2016 - 8.62%
2015 - 9.68%
2014 - 10.64%
2013 - 10.59%
2012 - 6.63%
2011 - 10.19%
2007 - 7%
2006 - 14%
2004 - 6%
2003 - 4%
2001 - Under 1% (Although I used Bledsoe at 7%)

 

[eighsse2]

Forgetting the numbers for the moment and just looking at the logic of it: for instance, the first year after signing your QB to a second contract after the final year of his rookie contract (we're assuming he is quite good at being a QB, of course), certainly you are now at a disadvantage versus the prior year. Unless Mr. Quarterback makes leaps and bounds of improvement in performance between those two seasons, there's no way you are expected to be as well off as you were the prior season ... you simply don't have the same cap space you used to, and he's still the same guy at the helm. So in theory, yes, obviously you are at a disadvantage. But are you at a disadvantage versus letting him walk and drafting a rookie instead? That's the question. All depends on how good the guy is, and how much he's expecting to make.

 

[zed2283]

Based on BobbyLayne and Anarchy99's last two post, looks like 12-14% is the sweet spot. Case solved. Someone sign me up as GM.

 

[Deamon]

There was a sidebar discussion in the Lamar Jackson thread, in which I posted:

still think another correlation is QB pay / salary cap hit. Mahomes and Stafford had big paychecks in the last couple of Super Bowls, but IIRC, other SB winning QBs were generally not at the top of the market. I know people have discussed and debated this, but I will put that on my things to do list to research more thoroughly (if I can dig up the salary data).

LINK
...Yahoo Sports compiled and analyzed 10 years of data on quarterback salaries, experience, performance and team success. Using numbers from Spotrac and Football Outsiders, we designed a metric to compare a given quarterback's performance to a salary-based expected performance. We hypothesized that we’d find a strong correlation between that metric — performance relative to salary — and winning.

Instead, we found a relatively weak correlation (R2 = 0.17), and a stronger one (R2 = 0.44) between QB performance alone and team success.

...Super Bowl champ. Of the NFL’s last 10 title winners, six paid their quarterbacks above the league average; four paid below it. ... On average, they paid smack dab in the league’s 50th percentile.

Like anything else, a small sample size can skew things. IMO, what Yahoo researched would not hold true going back to the start of the salary cap / free agency era in 1994 (essentially triple the data set they used). Also, I believe there is a correlation to getting to conference games and the SB (ie, Final Four teams . . . not just SB winning teams). That's set is 4 times the data. So 3 x 4 = 12 times the data. Will have to dig into this more in the off season.

I have since done the research and crunched the numbers. Here's what I did.Using contract data from Spotrac and OverTheCap, I compiled the salary cap data for QB dating back to the start of the salary cap era in 1994. The more recent the season, the more accurate the data is. The past 20 seasons or so are extremely accurate. The seasons before that are mostly accurate (there was less data on backup QB from the 90s). My data set includes ONLY THE SALARY CAP CHARGE DATA of each QB for that particular season FOR QB THAT MADE THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES. Note that means I DID NOT use AAV of contracts, so if a player has a contract that averages $40M a year but in the year he made the Final Four had a $5M cap charge, he is in my spreadsheet at $5M not $40M. Most of the QB mega contracts these days have greatly reduced cap hits early in the contract (when the player raked in tons of bonus money). For example, there have only been 81 instances where a team took a cap hit of $20M+ for a QB. More teams are pushing those cap hits into future cap years. For example, from 2018-2020, there were 44 contracts (roughly 15 per season) that commanded cap hits of $20M+. In 2021, there were 9. In 2022, there were only 7. (As of now, there are 11 for 2023 if teams don't modify them.)

I did not do what Yahoo! did in their research (comparing salary and experience to create a formula for expected performance). What I have is the raw data . . . these teams got as far as they did taking the cap charge they did. One of the reasons I don't totally agree with what Yahoo! did (as I understand it) is they looked at all contracts. I still contend that rookie contracts (or under market QB contracts) are both worth more than value contracts at other positions and also are an integral part of an effective roster building strategy. The logic being, getting premium production from an underpaid QB leaves more money to spend on other positions. Maybe I am confusing what Yahoo! was exploring, but if they considered all rookie QB contracts (for players that ended up on terrible teams), that would drag down the results for the value of a good team with a top QB on a rookie QB. I did not look at all contracts . . . only the ones for the teams that advanced to the conference championship games.

For each team, I considered the QB that carried the highest salary cap hit on the roster (since the team had to account for that player, whether he remained the starter, missed time with injury, was benched, etc.). For example, I used Drew Bledsoe as the QB for the 2001 Patriots (who had the 5th highest cap hit for a QB that season), even though Tom Brady ended up playing the majority of the time. Here were some key takeaways and observations.

- Of the 10 QB that have had salary cap charges of $30M+, only one (10%) has made the Final Four (Mahomes this season).
- Of the 26 QB that have had salary cap charges of $25M+, only four (15%) have made the Final Four (Mahomes 2022, Garoppolo 2021, Brady 2020, Rodgers 2019).
- Of the 81 QB that have had salary cap charges of $20M+, 12 (15%) have made the Final Four. Of those 12, the only players that did it more than once (at a charge of $20M+) were Brady, Rodgers, and Garoppolo.
- The QB with the highest salary cap charge made the Final Four 5 times in 29 seasons (17%).
- QB ranked in the Top 5 for salary cap charges made the Final Four 23 times, meaning a Top 5 QB had a 16% chance of making it.
- QB ranked in the Top 10 for salary cap charges made the Final Four 46 times, meaning a Top 10 QB had also had a 16% chance of making it.
- QB ranked outside of the Top 20 for salary cap charges made the Final Four 24 times, which was once more than players in the Top 5.
- QB ranked outside the Top 40 for salary cap charges made the Final Four 5 times, which was the same as the number of times as the player with the highest cap charge.
- In the past 10 seasons, there were 9 QB ranked in the Top 5 (22.5%) . . . but 12 QB not ranked in the Top 20 (30%).
- In the past 10 seasons, 5 times there were 2 QB NOT ranked in the Top 20 for salary cap hits. That only happened one other time in 19 other seasons.
- In the past 10 seasons, 4 times there was a QB NOT ranked in the Top 40 for salary cap hits. That also only happened once in 19 other seasons.
- Over all 29 seasons, the average salary cap ranking for SB winning QB was 14.9. The average salary cap ranking for SB losing QB was exactly the same (14.9).
- The average salary cap ranking for all QB that lost in the conference championship was marginally better at 14.7.

Total Top 5 QB in Final 4:
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 4
1 QB - 15
0 QB - 10

Total Top 10 QB in Final 4:
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 4 (2016, 2007, 2004, 1994)
2 QB - 12
1 QB - 10
0 QB - 3 (2017, 2010, 2000)

Total Number of QB Not in Top 20:
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 6 (5 in the past 10 seasons)
1 QB - 12
0 QB - 11

Top 5 QB in each Final 4 (2013 - 2022):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 2
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 3

Top 10 QB in each Final 4 (2013 - 2022):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 1
2 QB - 4
1 QB - 4
0 QB - 1

Number of QB Not in Top 20 (2013 - 2022):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 5
1 QB - 2
0 QB - 3

Top 5 QB in each Final 4 (2003 - 2012):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 2
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 3

Top 10 QB in each Final 4 (2003 - 2012):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 2
2 QB - 3
1 QB - 4
0 QB - 1

Number of QB Not in Top 20 (2003 - 2012):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 0
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 0

Top 5 QB in each Final 4 (1994 - 2002):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 0
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 4

Top 10 QB in each Final 4 (1994 - 2002):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 1
2 QB - 5
1 QB - 2
0 QB - 1

Number of QB Not in Top 20 (1994 - 2002):
4 QB - 0
3 QB - 0
2 QB - 1
1 QB - 5
0 QB - 3

The average salary cap hit ranking overall is 14.8 (across 116 teams in 29 seasons). Over the past 10 seasons, the average per season has been: 22.25, 13.25, 19.25, 23, 19.5, 21.5, 8.25, 11.5, 20, and 24.

Based on all of this, it would be a little premature to conclude with certainty that rookie contracts give teams a decided advantage, but on the surface it does appear that in the past 10 years more teams have made the Final 4 with players ranked lower on the cap charge rankings than in the nearly 2 decades before then. Of the 40 teams from the past 10 seasons, 17 of them (42.5%) had QB with a cap charge of under $10M, 14 were under $7.5M (35%), 7 were under $5M (17.5%), and 5 were under $3M (7.5%).

Of course, a counter argument will be that 4 of the past 5 SB winners had QB with cap charges of $20M+ (as did 9 of the past 20 Final Four QB). In that same time frame, there were 10 QB with charges under $10M. In the most recent 5 seasons, there were 7 Top 10 contracts vs. 7 Not Top 20 contracts (out of the 20 teams involved). It appears teams are winning either paying close to the top of the market or nowhere near the top of the market . . . with not many teams in the middle contract range.

There is too much information to post all of it, but if people have questions or are interested other comparisons, let me know and I can try to figure them out and post the results.

yes.

 

[jasvic]

Feel like this is being over complicated. It's pretty obvious a QB on a rookie deal gives a team an advantage in a salary cap world, but it's just that, one advantage among so many other factors it takes for teams to find success, I can have the best QB play for free, but if the rest of my roster stinks because I threw more money at bad players so does the team, or bad injury luck, a tough schedule/division, or whatever else that can happen and derail a team so easily in the NFL.

Looks like the question you're trying to answer is how much of an advantage does it give you, but even that is tough to determine for the same reasons.

 

[massraider]

Feel like this is being over complicated. It's pretty obvious a QB on a rookie deal gives a team an advantage in a salary cap world, but it's just that, one advantage among so many other factors it takes for teams to find success, I can have the best QB play for free, but if the rest of my roster stinks because I threw more money at bad players so does the team, or bad injury luck, a tough schedule/division, or whatever else that can happen and derail a team so easily in the NFL.

Looks like the question you're trying to answer is how much of an advantage does it give you, but even that is tough to determine for the same reasons.

Pretty much this all day. It's very nice to have a QB on a rookie deal. Once people start talking like your window is closed because you re-signed your franchise QB, you can tune out.

Even when a QB is re-signed, it doesn't mean he is an immediate burden. With roster bonuses and signing bonuses, you can pick and choose years he will count more or less. Many QBs cap numbers go DOWN the first year or so after they are re-signed (tag or 5th year option the most recent year).

The thing is, this advantage is squandered many times, by teams adding bad contracts in free agency to 'build' around the young QB.

Let's say Justin Fields is a franchise guy., for the sake of argument. He is $35 mill less on salary cap than Mahomes. So where are the Bears using that extra money, to take advantage? LB Tremaine Edmunds is $14 mill this year, $11 mill more than KC's most expensive LB (Tranquill). They signed some middle class free agents, TJ Edwards, Nate Davis, DeMarcus Walker. That's 20 mill in cap space. That's the difference between Fields and Mahomes, pretty much! Or here's a better way to look at it from the Bears perspective: Mahomes=Fields+DJ Moore+Tremaine Edmunds. Not bad from the Bears perspective, especially if Fields is the real deal. BUt if Edwards/Davis/Walker all bust, that advantage is mitigated.

All that to illustrate that the difference between rookie and premium deals (30+ million/year give or take) can be squandered if teams make bad free agent decisions.

I actually think the ideal situation regarding your rookie QB contract is to plan other deals around it. Have a bunch of cap space? Maybe front load some contracts for veteran cornerstone pieces. The Bears have DJ Moore for decent cap numbers next three years. They have 38 mill in cap space. They could add a year to his deal, give him a 15 mill roster bonus this year, and have him for $11-15 mill cap numbers for the next 4 years. Those are Curtis Samuel 2023 numbers. And the Bears could be paying those cap numbers in 2026! They could be into Fields' new deal, paying Moore like Jakobi Myers, and still afford another WR1 of they wanted to get one.
There are risks with front-loading a deal, giving a roster bonus is like a down payment on a car lease. But there are risks with one year deals for middling talent.

 

[humpback]

A team squandering the advantage doesn't make it any less of an advantage.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Do Teams Have An Advantage Playing With A QB On A Rookie Contract?​

My data set includes ONLY THE SALARY CAP CHARGE DATA of each QB for that particular season FOR QB THAT MADE THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES.

Do teams have an advantage playing with a QB on a rookie contract?
What are the criteria?
If they made the conference Championship game as we focus in on cost/benefit of the salary hit.

All rookies are under a rookie salary cap, there isn't any question that any rookie that makes a conference Championship game would benefit the team that selected them with cap savings.
GIGO.
The starting point of the data has to include ALL rookie QBs because we know a rookie QB who makes a conference Championship game provides a cap savings.

 

[jasvic]

A team squandering the advantage doesn't make it any less of an advantage.

Exactly. We all (I assume) concede there's a home field advantage, but it doesn't guarantee wins.

 

[Anarchy99]

Do Teams Have An Advantage Playing With A QB On A Rookie Contract?​

My data set includes ONLY THE SALARY CAP CHARGE DATA of each QB for that particular season FOR QB THAT MADE THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES.

Do teams have an advantage playing with a QB on a rookie contract?
What are the criteria?
If they made the conference Championship game as we focus in on cost/benefit of the salary hit.

All rookies are under a rookie salary cap, there isn't any question that any rookie that makes a conference Championship game would benefit the team that selected them with cap savings.
GIGO.
The starting point of the data has to include ALL rookie QBs because we know a rookie QB who makes a conference Championship game provides a cap savings.

I partly disagree. I was interested in researching what the salary construction at QB was for teams that advanced to at least the conference finals. part of why it's tougher to compare all rookie QB deals is the huge majority of the time they are drafted near the top of the draft to teams that aren't very good. And the flip side is teams that were really good wouldn't likely draft a rookie QB (as they generally already had a franchise QB). We can also run the numbers in reverse to show that paying out (or at least accounting for) the largest salary cap hits at QB doesn't typically result in deep advancement in the playoffs. One would think or expect that established teams with seasoned (and more expensive QBs) would win more, as they were generally good for several years and had the benefit of a lot more experience at QB.

What I compiled and put together wasn't only intended to review rookie QB deals (although I put that in the thread title). It was more of a representative snapshot of the teams QBs and their contracts that advanced as far as they did.

 

[Tau837]

Similar examination here: Can Teams Win with High Cap QBs?