Do You Believe Deion Branch Will Walk? (1 Viewer)

[MLBrandow]

would someone be kind enough to fix this poll? Thanks!

Now that he skipped the mandatory minicamp, it makes me wonder.

Certainly while he's established himself as the clearcut No.1 receiver for the Patriots, I get the feeling that the front office doesn't want to lock up that much money in a guy they can probably just replace. 80 receptions, 1000 yards, 5TD, under 13 YPC.... not really stud numbers.

Now, as for him holding out during the season, this I highly, highly doubt. But I am thinking that there is a pretty decent chance that he plays out his current contract and becomes a UFA.

Any thoughts?

Certainly if he misses a significant amount of preseason, there's a good chance it could impact his first few games. I don't really believe (despite his accolades and my personal to him as a receiver) that he has much in the way of bargaining chips with a team that has three Super Bowl rings in the past five years.

If he stays and gets the contract, what sort of numbers are you anticipating? 6-7yrs/$35-40M?

What sort of numbers do you really see for this guy? I don't think he's got much beyond an 1100/7TD performance while he remains in the NE system.

Now, if he were in another system (Eagles?) I'd say he's money for a top 5 WR performance.

 

[Big Score]

Any thoughts?

Fix the Poll so you can actually vote in it.

 

[Davej626]

Geez, I like Branch, but he is not a top five performer. So why should he get top five money? What he gets depends on how well Caldwell, Jackson and Watson are doing in camp. If those three light it up, then FO is in no rush to sign Branch back up. Plus, they will low ball him and his agent will be upset (happens at every contract, not just NE). If he takes a top ten-fifteen money position, then they will met somewhere around there. In the end, he makes around top ten money and is in training camp happy.

Nothing to see here..

 

[MLBrandow]

Would like to believe that, but you have to wonder how far he might be willing to go for that extra $10-15M that another team would pay.

At the least, something to keep on the back of mind.

 

[Borat]

I'd be shocked if he didn't sign an extension before or during the season. Part of the reason they let Givens walk was so that they'd have enough coin to sign Branch.

 

[MLBrandow]

I'd be shocked if he didn't sign an extension before or during the season. Part of the reason they let Givens walk was so that they'd have enough coin to sign Branch.

Do you have a link or remember where you heard this from? First I've heard of it, and certainly might tip the hand on where this is going.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think an equally interesting question would be if the Pats pony up the money to keep him. Some of the other players that left town did not even receive offers.

 

[thayman]

I think an equally interesting question would be if the Pats pony up the money to keep him. Some of the other players that left town did not even receive offers.

It's also easy to stay on the NE team that won 3 out of the last 4 SB, take less money and hang around. If they slide and the NE front office doesn't throw up some $$$ I wouldn't be surprised to see players start to leave.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think an equally interesting question would be if the Pats pony up the money to keep him.  Some of the other players that left town did not even receive offers.

It's also easy to stay on the NE team that won 3 out of the last 4 SB, take less money and hang around. If they slide and the NE front office doesn't throw up some $$$ I wouldn't be surprised to see players start to leave.

How many Pats have signed on for the "stick around at a discount" plan? Brady and . . . . (There may be others, but they are not jumping out at me.) Seymour stuck around, but I think he got a decent sized contract. He may have been able to sign elsewhere later on for a little more money, but I don't think he was cheated by any stretch.From the first ring on, there has been a steady stream of Pats players departing for greener pastures. Football is a business, and that's to be expected. It hasn't really slowed them down all that much (for now). But if Givens was worth $5 million a year, Branch will want more than that. Whether the Pats will pay that much is an interesting debate to have.

Part of the issue here is that many of the guys that are up for renewal had extremely cheap contracts to begin with, so they already were playing for a lot less than they were worth. Their agents would say that they already gave a hometown discount by playing for peanuts.

In following the Pats, it looks like they have adopted a model of:

- No long-term contracts for guys in their 30s (sometimes even no contracts at all for guys 30+)

- Shy away from guys looking for big second contracts

- Look for guys coming off of injuries or cut by other teams that could be cheap

- Avoid top free agents

That leaves a bunch of rookie contracts that run their course and guys in their second contract that were reasonably priced. There maybe a couple of bigger contracts, but for the most part they do not have many high priced guys backed up by no-name backups.

 

[jerseys finest]

For what its worth, I just dont see the Patriots being ok with Branch not being on the field for them this year. I can see a one year contract for a little more money, like they did with Seymour before giving him the big extension in April. After that, its up in the air if NE would give him a big extension or if he would walk for "greener pastures" so to speak..

The team just doesn't have any proven quality at the WR position behind Branch this year.

Chad Jackson is a rook, Reche Caldwell is an injury hazard and Troy Brown has lost a step or 3. With BB's extensive offensive playbook(extremely precise route running / knowing where to be when plays break down, etc etc) I just dont see them going into this season with Jackson/Caldwell as the starters, especially since neither have any experience in this system and no/very little NFL experience respectively..

 

[Borat]

I'd be shocked if he didn't sign an extension before or during the season. Part of the reason they let Givens walk was so that they'd have enough coin to sign Branch.

Do you have a link or remember where you heard this from? First I've heard of it, and certainly might tip the hand on where this is going.

Belichick & co. haven't said anything publicly to this effect, of course, so the only link I may be able to provide is mere media speculation. But the fact that they are negotiating is better than what can be said for other soon-to-be free agents, such as Daniel Graham, who haven't even received offers. Also, Branch has always been very highly thought of throughout the organization, far more so than Givens (which is not a knock on Givens, just a compliment to Branch).

 

[Borat]

How many Pats have signed on for the "stick around at a discount" plan? Brady and . . . . (There may be others, but they are not jumping out at me.) Seymour stuck around, but I think he got a decent sized contract.

Some of these guys were incoming free agents, not guys who re-signed, but the following players signed for less money in New England than what they could have gotten elsewhere (and I agree with you that Seymour definitely would not fall into this category):Tom Brady, who you mentionedTroy Brown, turned down more money from New Orleans last offseasonTedy Bruschi, negotiated his own contract to stayRosevelt Colvin, turned down more money from ArizonaJarvis Green, recently extended, could also have been a starter on most other teamsRodney Harrison, turned down more money from the RaidersMatt Light, recently extendedLarry Izzo, a special teamer, so not big money, but stillMike Vrabel, recently extended

 

[Chase Stuart]

How many Pats have signed on for the "stick around at a discount" plan? Brady

Some might argue that Brady didn't stick around at a discount after all.

 

[Borat]

How many Pats have signed on for the "stick around at a discount" plan? Brady

Some might argue that Brady didn't stick around at a discount after all.

Who?

 

[David Yudkin]

How many Pats have signed on for the "stick around at a discount" plan?  Brady and . . . . (There may be others, but they are not jumping out at me.)  Seymour stuck around, but I think he got a decent sized contract.

Some of these guys were incoming free agents, not guys who re-signed, but the following players signed for less money in New England than what they could have gotten elsewhere (and I agree with you that Seymour definitely would not fall into this category):Tom Brady, who you mentioned

Troy Brown, turned down more money from New Orleans last offseason

Tedy Bruschi, negotiated his own contract to stay

Rosevelt Colvin, turned down more money from Arizona

Jarvis Green, recently extended, could also have been a starter on most other teams

Rodney Harrison, turned down more money from the Raiders

Matt Light, recently extended

Larry Izzo, a special teamer, so not big money, but still

Mike Vrabel, recently extended

Of this list, the ones that were Patriots free agents who stayed for less were:- Not Brady

- Brown (who didn't want to go anywhere to begin with)

- Not sure about Brushci, but I don't think he was a free agent

- Certainly not Colvin (he's said 1000 times he will not take a discount)

- Don't think Green (he extended and wasn't a free agent IIRC)

- Not Harrison

- Not Light

- Don't think Izzo

- Not Vrabel

I'm not suggesting that these guys did not take a discount in their agreeing to their extensions, but none of them did so once they hit the open market.

Many Pats free agents end up leaving. This year, Hawkins, Neal, Davis, Brown, Chad Scott, and Poteat came back and could have left. But tons of other guys left town. Guys that are no longer around (for one reason or another):

David Givens WR UFA NE TEN

Christian Fauria TE UFA NE WAS

Tyrone Poole DB UFA NE OAK

Matt Chatham LB UFA NE NYJ

Willie McGinest LB UFA NE CLE

Andre Davis WR UFA NE BUF

Adam Vinatieri PK UFA NE IND

Tom Ashworth OL UFA NE SEA

Tim Dwight WR UFA NE NYJ

Michael Stone DB UFA NE HOU

Duane Starks DB UFA NE OAK

Chad Brown LB UFA

Amos Zereoue RB UFA

Arturo Freeman DB UFA

Doug Flutie QB UFA

Wesly Mallard LB UFA

Ross Tucker OL UFA

Obviously some of these guys were given their walking papers and others were bit players, but that still is a fair amount of turnover.

 

[Borat]

How many Pats have signed on for the "stick around at a discount" plan? Brady and . . . . (There may be others, but they are not jumping out at me.) Seymour stuck around, but I think he got a decent sized contract.

Some of these guys were incoming free agents, not guys who re-signed, but the following players signed for less money in New England than what they could have gotten elsewhere (and I agree with you that Seymour definitely would not fall into this category):Tom Brady, who you mentioned

Troy Brown, turned down more money from New Orleans last offseason

Tedy Bruschi, negotiated his own contract to stay

Rosevelt Colvin, turned down more money from Arizona

Jarvis Green, recently extended, could also have been a starter on most other teams

Rodney Harrison, turned down more money from the Raiders

Matt Light, recently extended

Larry Izzo, a special teamer, so not big money, but still

Mike Vrabel, recently extended

Of this list, the ones that were Patriots free agents who stayed for less were:- Not Brady

- Brown (who didn't want to go anywhere to begin with)

- Not sure about Brushci, but I don't think he was a free agent

- Certainly not Colvin (he's said 1000 times he will not take a discount)

- Don't think Green (he extended and wasn't a free agent IIRC)

- Not Harrison

- Not Light

- Don't think Izzo

- Not Vrabel

I'm not suggesting that these guys did not take a discount in their agreeing to their extensions, but none of them did so once they hit the open market.

Many Pats free agents end up leaving. This year, Hawkins, Neal, Davis, Brown, Chad Scott, and Poteat came back and could have left. But tons of other guys left town. Guys that are no longer around (for one reason or another):

David Givens WR UFA NE TEN

Christian Fauria TE UFA NE WAS

Tyrone Poole DB UFA NE OAK

Matt Chatham LB UFA NE NYJ

Willie McGinest LB UFA NE CLE

Andre Davis WR UFA NE BUF

Adam Vinatieri PK UFA NE IND

Tom Ashworth OL UFA NE SEA

Tim Dwight WR UFA NE NYJ

Michael Stone DB UFA NE HOU

Duane Starks DB UFA NE OAK

Chad Brown LB UFA

Amos Zereoue RB UFA

Arturo Freeman DB UFA

Doug Flutie QB UFA

Wesly Mallard LB UFA

Ross Tucker OL UFA

Obviously some of these guys were given their walking papers and others were bit players, but that still is a fair amount of turnover.

As I said, many guys on my list were extensions, and a lot of them were incoming free agents. It's simply good business in today's NFL to re-sign players you want to keep before they hit the open market, so it's really not saying much that the Pats haven't re-signed many of their free agents who've hit the open market. You get to sign them for less if you get them before their contract is up, and they get some security (in case they might happen to get injured in the final year of their contract). And yes, Colvin did take less to come here than he could have gotten in Arizona, but as you said, he of course has not re-signed with the Pats since signing his original free agent contract.The only players on the outgoing list who the Pats wanted to retain were Givens, who I think we can both agree the Titans overpaid for; McGinest, who got a ridiculous contract from Cleveland (I love Willie but he's getting older and he completely disappeared last year when Seymour was not on the field in front of him); Vinatieri, who wanted far too much for a kicker and had been reportedly complaining about his already-high contract for the past few years; and Tom Ashworth, who, let's face it, was expendable.

 

[David Yudkin]

Willie signed a 3-year, $12 million deal to go to Cleveland of which $6 million was guaranteed. I am not so sure that that would be considered "ridiculous." If he played this year and next, the total would have been $9 millon (or roughly $4.5 million a year). Is he worth that much? I don't know, but I think the Pats LB corps will be weaker without him.

 

[Traders2001]

They cant let him walk , they dont have another NFL WR on the roster .

Caldwell has nt proven he is a NFL WR yet, Jackson is a rook so they absolutely need to sign Branch.

 

[David Yudkin]

They cant let him walk , they dont have another NFL WR on the roster .

Caldwell has nt proven he is a NFL WR yet, Jackson is a rook so they absolutely need to sign Branch.

I believe the "let him walk" element would be for next year not this one.

 

[Chase Stuart]

How many Pats have signed on for the "stick around at a discount" plan? Brady

Some might argue that Brady didn't stick around at a discount after all.

Who?

There was a long thread on it when he signed the extension.

 

[MLBrandow]

This is turning into quite an interesting thread.

I was thinking NE might give him some sort of "play this year for $2M and we'll see how we like you after the season" but I don't know.

Surely Branch is a class act, and I HIGHLY HIGHLY doubt he'll hold out for an unreasonable amount of time during the preseason, and doubt pretty much entirely he'd sit out any part of the regular season.

But I do think he'll hold stiff on his demands, and I think he'll be in a new uniform next year if the Pats believe he's replacable, which, right now, I think they do.

 

[Bri]

New England has never paid a WR anywhere near "top dollar". It definitely makes for an interesting dilemma.

They sure don't pay their K as much anymore

 

[-OZ-]

Talk about your even vote

Yes, but he will play 2006 in a NE uniform [ 26 ] ** [48.15%]

Yes, and he will either sit out the season or be traded [ 1 ] ** [1.85%]

No, and he will get his extension without missing any regular season games [ 26 ] ** [48.15%]

No, but he will hold out for at least one regular season game [ 1 ] ** [1.85%]

FWIW, I voted "he'll play this year, but gone next" - I wouldn't be shocked to see him as a Jet in 2007 if McCareins/Cotchery don't step up big time.

ETA: this is something I didnt consider in rookie drafts this year

 

[MLBrandow]

Talk about your even vote

Yes, but he will play 2006 in a NE uniform [ 26 ] ** [48.15%]

Yes, and he will either sit out the season or be traded [ 1 ] ** [1.85%]

No, and he will get his extension without missing any regular season games [ 26 ] ** [48.15%]

No, but he will hold out for at least one regular season game [ 1 ] ** [1.85%]

FWIW, I voted "he'll play this year, but gone next" - I wouldn't be shocked to see him as a Jet in 2007 if McCareins/Cotchery don't step up big time.

ETA: this is something I didnt consider in rookie drafts this year

There we go. Think Someone hit the nail on the future.Branch a Jet in '07?

Sounds like money in the bag to me.....

And I'm pretty sure they will pay much closer to what he is worth.

Right now I consider him in the Plaxico category in terms of his on field production versus what he is actually capable of producing (certainly the difference being postseason ability.... but that's mitigated for the purposes of this comparison).

I think he's more than capable of being a top-flight top5 WR. Will he ever achieve that in NE? Very Doubtful. So why should they pay him top5 money?

One thing I'm glad to see is that regardless of whether he gets his contract or not, we are in practically unanimous consent that he won't miss a day of preseason to the point where it will impact his regular season status/ability.

New question, same topic: How do you think his contract status will affect his 2006 game? Will playing for a big payday for a new team influence him at all? Certainly NE won't care, but will we see more breaks for the endzone? Might we see NE using him more without fear of injury, since they know he'll be gone anyway?

Personally, I'm thinking a slight increase in yardage either way, with an increase in TDs if he's playing for a contract.... just a shot in the dark though with no real evidence to back it up other than my own personal opinions on the guy.

 

[David Yudkin]

Having watched almost every game Branch has played, he may not be the best option as a true #1 WR. Yes, he's had some big games in the spotlight, but he does not do well in double coverage. I believe even he will admit to that.

Part of why he's done well is that the Pats' playbook has so many options that he can get free (when single covered).

I do not think he has the skills to ever be a Top 5 WR. While he did have no drops in 2004 (IIRC), he had quite a few this past year). He normally can do ok if he can get open, but he disappears if teams scheme against him properly.

He's had 21 regular season games with 4 or fewer fantasy points scored and another 4 similar games in the postseason. So that's 25 times out of 61 games. That's over 40% of the time. I know WR are streaky or vary from week to week, but 40% of the time he would have a negative impact on your fantasy team.

 

[BusMan]

I wouldn't have assumed Branch was that risky. I wonder how much of it can be attributed to his skill set versus the Patriots offensive scheme. Brady is know as an equal opportunity passer, and therefore Branch's numbers have a higher distribution than most FFers would like.