Dodd's Game Predictor ATS (1 Viewer)

[ukshane]

I noticed Dodd's game predictor in the subscriber section for the first time today. Although his projected margins of victory mirrored the actual opening lines pretty closely there were a few outliers (+ or - 4pts).

Bills - Vegas line + 7 Dodds line +2

Browns - Vegas line -3 Dodds line -7

Detroit - Vegas line +7 Dodds line + 12

Dallas - Vegas line - 4.5 Dodds line -0.5

It seems to me that Vegas simply tries to set the line at a point which will draw an even amount of action on both sides so the outcome is irrelevant while Dodd's formula is acutally trying to predict the final score. Has anyone (Dodd's included) ever checked the accuracy of his predictor ATS?

Feel free to move this to the FFA if it is more appropriate there.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Wouldnt it be funny if Dodds was hitting at a 90% rate all season?

 

[Kleck]

In a weekly Pick the Winner pool where you apply 1-16 points on each game, I'm using Dodds' Predictor tool as one of my entries for each week. Currently that entry has finished 1st once, 2nd once and 3rd twice. In the overall standings it's currently 2nd, behind the leader by only 5 points.

The payouts for this league go to the top 2 finishers each week, and the remaining money to the top 2 finishers overall. So far the Dodds' Predictor entry is already ahead 50% on the year, will hit 350% if it hangs onto 2nd in the overall standings and 650% with a 1st place overall standings finish.

 

[boubucarow]

I noticed Dodd's game predictor in the subscriber section for the first time today. Although his projected margins of victory mirrored the actual opening lines pretty closely there were a few outliers (+ or - 4pts).

Bills - Vegas line + 7 Dodds line +2

Browns - Vegas line -3 Dodds line -7

Detroit - Vegas line +7 Dodds line + 12

Dallas - Vegas line - 4.5 Dodds line -0.5

It seems to me that Vegas simply tries to set the line at a point which will draw an even amount of action on both sides so the outcome is irrelevant while Dodd's formula is acutally trying to predict the final score. Has anyone (Dodd's included) ever checked the accuracy of his predictor ATS?

Feel free to move this to the FFA if it is more appropriate there.

No to the bolded section but I will leave the explanation of why to someone with more knowledge concerning the Vegas odds.

 

[Jayrod]

I've been using Dodds game predictor to choose my weekly pool picks each week. I'm in first for the year by 9 games.

One guy would be close to me, but forgot to submit his picks one week. He's behind me by 10, which was the high number the week he forgot.

 

[higgins]

What's the price to be a subscriber btw (it's been a while)? Sounds like it's well worth if for the weekly picks alone.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I noticed Dodd's game predictor in the subscriber section for the first time today. Although his projected margins of victory mirrored the actual opening lines pretty closely there were a few outliers (+ or - 4pts).

Bills - Vegas line + 7 Dodds line +2

Browns - Vegas line -3 Dodds line -7

Detroit - Vegas line +7 Dodds line + 12

Dallas - Vegas line - 4.5 Dodds line -0.5

It seems to me that Vegas simply tries to set the line at a point which will draw an even amount of action on both sides so the outcome is irrelevant while Dodd's formula is acutally trying to predict the final score. Has anyone (Dodd's included) ever checked the accuracy of his predictor ATS?

Feel free to move this to the FFA if it is more appropriate there.

No to the bolded section but I will leave the explanation of why to someone with more knowledge concerning the Vegas odds.

No, he's pretty right on with that.Vegas is getting 5% of the juice no matter what, if they were to set the line for Dallas lets say at -7, and everyone takes Dallas and they win by 2 TDs...Vegas would lose its ###, so what they do is make a line that will get an even number of bets...if everyone is taking Dallas initially, then they up the line until people start taking the opposition. Does this make sense? They want to take in a million dollars that is evenly split between two teams so that no matter what, they collect the 500,000 from the losers and the 5% on the other $500,000 they have to pay out.

 

[ourmanflint]

I noticed Dodd's game predictor in the subscriber section for the first time today. Although his projected margins of victory mirrored the actual opening lines pretty closely there were a few outliers (+ or - 4pts).

Bills - Vegas line + 7 Dodds line +2

Browns - Vegas line -3 Dodds line -7

Detroit - Vegas line +7 Dodds line + 12

Dallas - Vegas line - 4.5 Dodds line -0.5

It seems to me that Vegas simply tries to set the line at a point which will draw an even amount of action on both sides so the outcome is irrelevant while Dodd's formula is acutally trying to predict the final score. Has anyone (Dodd's included) ever checked the accuracy of his predictor ATS?

Feel free to move this to the FFA if it is more appropriate there.

No to the bolded section but I will leave the explanation of why to someone with more knowledge concerning the Vegas odds.

Are you suggesting books want to take a side in games? I would say absolutely not or they would cease to exist.Some books might get a notion to do so from time to time and alter their line to get takers on the other side. But I doubt they survive very long like that.

 

[ukshane]

I noticed Dodd's game predictor in the subscriber section for the first time today. Although his projected margins of victory mirrored the actual opening lines pretty closely there were a few outliers (+ or - 4pts).

Bills - Vegas line + 7 Dodds line +2

Browns - Vegas line -3 Dodds line -7

Detroit - Vegas line +7 Dodds line + 12

Dallas - Vegas line - 4.5 Dodds line -0.5

It seems to me that Vegas simply tries to set the line at a point which will draw an even amount of action on both sides so the outcome is irrelevant while Dodd's formula is acutally trying to predict the final score. Has anyone (Dodd's included) ever checked the accuracy of his predictor ATS?

Feel free to move this to the FFA if it is more appropriate there.

No to the bolded section but I will leave the explanation of why to someone with more knowledge concerning the Vegas odds.

Are you suggesting books want to take a side in games? I would say absolutely not or they would cease to exist.Some books might get a notion to do so from time to time and alter their line to get takers on the other side. But I doubt they survive very long like that.

Maybe I wasn't clear. Ideally, books want an even amount of cash on both sides of the game so they don't have to care about the actual result. If they have 50 units on the Cowboys and 50 units on the Ravens this weekend, they will pocket their 5 unit vig for the effort of collecting from the losers and paying the winners. If the book has more clients that are Cowboy fans they will set the initial line in favor of the Ravens to encourage more Raven fans to bet on the game (hopefully equaling the sides so they don't have to care about the result.)

 

[Modog814]

I've been using Dodds game predictor to choose my weekly pool picks each week. I'm in first for the year by 9 games.One guy would be close to me, but forgot to submit his picks one week. He's behind me by 10, which was the high number the week he forgot.

If you don't mind posting, just curious to see how many wins you have doing this?

 

[TheWick]

I've been using Dodds game predictor to choose my weekly pool picks each week. I'm in first for the year by 9 games.One guy would be close to me, but forgot to submit his picks one week. He's behind me by 10, which was the high number the week he forgot.

So essentially you pick the favorites every week in your football pool?

 

[Michael Brown]

I've been using Dodds game predictor to choose my weekly pool picks each week. I'm in first for the year by 9 games.One guy would be close to me, but forgot to submit his picks one week. He's behind me by 10, which was the high number the week he forgot.

So essentially you pick the favorites every week in your football pool?

I'm assuming he uses the game predictor and adjusts his bets based on the spread. For instance, if the game predictor says that New England will beat Arizona by ten and the line on the game is NE -7.5, he'll bet the Pats. If it says New England will only win by 3, he'll take the Cards.By the way, I believe Dodds used to post the results of the game predictor in previous seasons. I think he stopped doing it for the very reason of people using it to place their bets, which is not what the tool was initially intended for (though it is a great by-product!).

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

His game predictor has always been one of my favorites. It is based on stats predictions, rather then the vegas lines. It is surprisingly acurate for most part proven over many years. I use it as a guide in my confidence polls and winning 2 years running but always tweak a few of them because I know others also use it as a guide! example: this weeks hi spread is Detroit game by a landslide! I KNOW about everyone will give that game a 16 hi confidence. I slipped em down a couple spots and picked a couple games I am extremely confident about ahead of them to get a edge on the competition. Bottom line that game predictor rules. He's almost always with in a td of the total pts scored. And has always been. Now his cheat sheets is a different story.

 

[TheWick]

I've been using Dodds game predictor to choose my weekly pool picks each week. I'm in first for the year by 9 games.One guy would be close to me, but forgot to submit his picks one week. He's behind me by 10, which was the high number the week he forgot.

So essentially you pick the favorites every week in your football pool?

I'm assuming he uses the game predictor and adjusts his bets based on the spread. For instance, if the game predictor says that New England will beat Arizona by ten and the line on the game is NE -7.5, he'll bet the Pats. If it says New England will only win by 3, he'll take the Cards.By the way, I believe Dodds used to post the results of the game predictor in previous seasons. I think he stopped doing it for the very reason of people using it to place their bets, which is not what the tool was initially intended for (though it is a great by-product!).

I see what your saying...I assumed a weekly pool did not include point spreads.By the looks of his predictor it usually follows the vegas line for who is favored in the game fairly close. That is what I was refering to.