Does anyone else get burned by changing lineups (1 Viewer)

[bbuster]

First of all, this is not a whining post and I'm not dogging FBG's in the least. My problem is that I continue to beat myself by second guessing myself. I always say I'm not going to do that again, and yet when I see that the experts have a certain player ranked MUCH lower than I do, I tend to change my lineup. I consider myself a very good fantasy player. I have won on a consistent basis since I started playing 7 years ago. So, my question is...am I the only one who does this? I know there are a bunch of sharks out there who will say they never look at the cheatsheets or if they do, they wouldn't change their lineup. If that's the case tell me HOW! Maybe I just have too much time on my hands. I do my homework. I do my projections. I set my lineup and then I LOOK AT THE CHEATSHEETS! If they are close I do nothing, but if they are extremely different I have the tendency to doubt myself rather than the experts. So far, this has been burning me more this year than it has in the past. Again, I want to make it clear that I am blaming NO ONE BUT MYSELF.

Is there some sort of support group for this? HELP

 

[Marc Levin]

 

[None_More_Black]

If you do a lot of research and watch the games, you are as much an expert as anyone else. I like getting a lot of infomation but you have to trust your gut. No one has as much interest in your team and players as you do. You are the expert of your team or teams.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I get burned whenever I change my lineup.

It's a natural course of events.

Let me give an example. Let's say you're stuck on three positions this week. You're stuck at QB, RB1, and WR2.

Now, you know you've got a good matchup at QB, so you're 65% sure that the QB you're starting will outscore the QB you're benching.

You KNOW you've got it made at RB. The RB you're starting has about a 78% chance of outscoring the guy you bench.

At WR2, you're not so sure. It's a toss up, but you're feeling good about your guy, who's got a 55% chance of outscoring his benched counterpart.

Now, you go out there, and you lose the game by 2 points. You're killing yourself...if you ONLY had started that other guy...

Stop it. Even with starting all the "correct" people, the ones with the BEST CHANCE of producing for you, you still only had a (.55*.78*.65), or a 27.8% chance of guessing ALL THREE correctly, and winning your game.

Just because you make the right decision, doesn't mean the results will always follow. But remember, if you're making the right calls, you'll have an advantage over your opponent in the long run.

And remember, it's a long season.

 

[videoguy505]

 

[ghosttothepost]

Since we're on the subject of FBG's weekly projections/cheatsheets, can someone explain WHO or WHOM is actually behind these rankings? I've been a happy subscriber for a number of years but have never understood if the weekly projections/cheatsheets are essentially a compilation of the FBG staff's opinions or if they simply reflect the opinion of the poster (i.e. Dodds). To the extent they are simply one man's (Dodd's) opinion, I would think it would be even more unwise to let them sway oneself from his or her own research or "gut" feeling. If, however, they actually actually reflect some sort of consensus among multiple "experts" on the FBG staff, it might make someone more likely to second guess himself.

 

[wilewolf]

Tell you what helps me, your looking for an opinion so here goes.

First off that happens to everyone at some point and gets frustrating if your losing. Stick to whatever system you use for your lineups and don't change it a whole lot. Its very easy to over evaluate scenarios based upon the defense that your players are facing, how good the teams do historically vs one another and a ton of stats that sometimes get to be too much.

I find that if I've got benched players that "could" have scored me more I do a little self evaluation and ask how many other people would have properly guessed the exact right mixture given my roster? Everyone will lose games at some point. Do you take chances? Do you follow what "should" be? Do you just wing it? There are a lot of questions to ask. The guy I played this week played R. White of the Falcons over Colsten of the Saints. Not really an easy call so far as last week the Falcons showed signs they may actually throw the ball and no one knew if this rookie from NO would be ok or not. He chose wrong, but can't really blame the guy as its a hard call. We are in a PPR league so he might have wanted to get some production vs no production.

Things to consider in my opinion.

Injury Status - have to be in the lineup to score

Opportunity - For the #1 WR, #1 RB on a team its simple . . play the best guys you've got.

For the #2 RB's / 3rd Down backs how often does the team spell the primary RB? This week I played D. Foster, but have D. Rhodes on my team too. Foster seems like he is going to be splitting time with D. Williams so I'll play Rhodes in week 3 as its what I consider a better spot. More of an option 1A and 1B with the Colts.

For WR's how often does the team throw? The Colts #2 Wayne as an example is better than many other #1's in the NFL. Does the player seem to make the most of his chances? If he is thrown to 5 times a game but catches it and makes plays with it he is probably a good backup / bye week player.

League Scoring - How is your specific leagues scoring, Brian Westbrook in a Point Per Reception League is pretty golden, while in a normal points league is probably outscored by about 15 other guys or more during the course of a season. Some scoring systems reward players for the 80 catch, 1000 yard, 4 TD season while others score points only for the TD's

NFL Team - Some teams get on a roll, look at the Jets so far this season.

I subscribe here at the FPG and find it helpful, but its not something where I go and change my lineup if one guy shows up at 25th scoring 10.5 points and one guy shows up at 35th scoring 8.6 points or something like that.

 

[Schubert Dip]

Had Favre penciled in most of the week,

until I saw Warner ranked way ahead of him

on almost every cheat sheet I saw.

Lost this week by 3 points.

 

[Futility]

Again, I want to make it clear that I am blaming NO ONE BUT MYSELF.

This desire to blame something/someone else just amazes me.

 

[bbuster]

Tell you what helps me, your looking for an opinion so here goes.First off that happens to everyone at some point and gets frustrating if your losing. Stick to whatever system you use for your lineups and don't change it a whole lot. Its very easy to over evaluate scenarios based upon the defense that your players are facing, how good the teams do historically vs one another and a ton of stats that sometimes get to be too much.I find that if I've got benched players that "could" have scored me more I do a little self evaluation and ask how many other people would have properly guessed the exact right mixture given my roster? Everyone will lose games at some point. Do you take chances? Do you follow what "should" be? Do you just wing it? There are a lot of questions to ask. The guy I played this week played R. White of the Falcons over Colsten of the Saints. Not really an easy call so far as last week the Falcons showed signs they may actually throw the ball and no one knew if this rookie from NO would be ok or not. He chose wrong, but can't really blame the guy as its a hard call. We are in a PPR league so he might have wanted to get some production vs no production.Things to consider in my opinion. Injury Status - have to be in the lineup to scoreOpportunity - For the #1 WR, #1 RB on a team its simple . . play the best guys you've got. For the #2 RB's / 3rd Down backs how often does the team spell the primary RB? This week I played D. Foster, but have D. Rhodes on my team too. Foster seems like he is going to be splitting time with D. Williams so I'll play Rhodes in week 3 as its what I consider a better spot. More of an option 1A and 1B with the Colts. For WR's how often does the team throw? The Colts #2 Wayne as an example is better than many other #1's in the NFL. Does the player seem to make the most of his chances? If he is thrown to 5 times a game but catches it and makes plays with it he is probably a good backup / bye week player. League Scoring - How is your specific leagues scoring, Brian Westbrook in a Point Per Reception League is pretty golden, while in a normal points league is probably outscored by about 15 other guys or more during the course of a season. Some scoring systems reward players for the 80 catch, 1000 yard, 4 TD season while others score points only for the TD's NFL Team - Some teams get on a roll, look at the Jets so far this season.I subscribe here at the FPG and find it helpful, but its not something where I go and change my lineup if one guy shows up at 25th scoring 10.5 points and one guy shows up at 35th scoring 8.6 points or something like that.

Thanks for taking the time for a serious reply. The guys who just see it as blaming someone else obviously only saw what they wanted in my post. I definitely do all the things that you are talking about. It's a strange thing. I know this game quite well, and yet for some reason, I continue to second guess myself. I know that WR's are streaky. You start your studs and your "average" guys always blow up...that's just part of the game. In past years, I've mostly drafted RB/RB, so I haven't had as many questions at that position. This year(especially with adding some PPR leagues) I thought there was usually more value in RB/WR, so I have question marks on my RB2. I thought the guy I chose this week had a good matchup, but when I saw how low he was ranked, I ended up benching him. If I hadn't I would be kicking back enjoying the game tomorrow night instead of relying on my DST. As I said, I'm not blaming anyone but myself. I just need to quit second guessing myself. I would rather lose because I went with my gut than because I went against it. I think that FBG's puts out the best FF product out there. I've been a subscriber for several years. I just need to keep reminding myself to use the tools and the info, but when it comes to my lineup, I'm the coach. It's just simply more fun that way...even if I make the wrong choice, at least I made it.

 

[Spike]

I look at all the information available to me, then I decide who to start. No, I don't get burned by the cheatsheets, sometimes I make incorrect decisions.This desire to blame something/someone else just amazes me.

Great, not

 

[bbuster]

I look at all the information available to me, then I decide who to start. No, I don't get burned by the cheatsheets, sometimes I make incorrect decisions.This desire to blame something/someone else just amazes me.

Great, not

Are you guys really this thick headed or just unable to read? One last time...I BLAME MYSELFGood Grief

 

[mistersmith]

It's kind of like poker. There are times when you make bad decisions and get lucky, there are times when you make good decisions and get unlucky. As long as you feel like you made the right decision, just pat yourself on the back regardless and move on. If you feel like you made the wrong decision, learn from it and move on.

Making incorrect lineup decisions happens to everyone all of the time. The cheatsheets are a very minor factor for myself. I remember a time where I had my decision, lost because I changed my mind after looking at the cheatsheets. From that day on I simply decided that if I were to ever lose again, it might as well be on my terms. So perhaps next time, just decrease the cheatsheet factor when you consider your lineups. Sounds simple but it might spare you some agony the next time you lose because you make an incorrect lineup decision. (Trust me, it will happen again.)

 

[ceo3west]

I look at all the information available to me, then I decide who to start. No, I don't get burned by the cheatsheets, sometimes I make incorrect decisions.This desire to blame something/someone else just amazes me.

Great, not

Are you guys really this thick headed or just unable to read? One last time...I BLAME MYSELFGood Grief

As much as I love FBG, I don't use the cheatsheets. A prime example of why: Favre was buried in the 20's yesterday (if I recall) at home against a subpar N.O. defense. Granted, Favre had done nothing in week 1, but let's face it, he's still Brett Favre. He got 5 less points than Manning yesterday in my scoring system.

 

[Da Guru]

I glance at the cheetsheets, but never let them influence my final decisions for my lineup.

I played Jeff Wilkins at home the first week and he was ranked #30. Wilkins ended up with 21 points for me.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

i pulled mike vick for phillip rivers at QB this week. vick has historically been bad against TB, and the Tenn defense is putrid. i'm gonna lose because of it.

 

[Gamblor]

I look at all the information available to me, then I decide who to start. No, I don't get burned by the cheatsheets, sometimes I make incorrect decisions.This desire to blame something/someone else just amazes me.

Great, not

Are you guys really this thick headed or just unable to read? One last time...I BLAME MYSELFGood Grief

As much as I love FBG, I don't use the cheatsheets. A prime example of why: Favre was buried in the 20's yesterday (if I recall) at home against a subpar N.O. defense. Granted, Favre had done nothing in week 1, but let's face it, he's still Brett Favre. He got 5 less points than Manning yesterday in my scoring system.

This is rich. Yes he's still Brett Favre. The same Brett Favre that has thrown 1 TD and 12 Ints in his last 6 games. The same Brett Favre who has thrown 5 Tds and 23 Ints in his last 11 games. The same Brett Favre who got shutout for the first time in history at home last week.You have to look back almost a full year before you find a decent game Brett has had fantasy wise. And you want FBG to rank him higher then 18 (where he was at this week)? By the way, the 18 spot happened to be exactly 2 points off the 9 spot in the projections. I think that is one thing that gets overlooked when people look at cheatsheets. Is there really that much difference between QB #20 and QB# 10 projection wise. Generally its only an extra couple points, or 1 less pick, or 60 more yards... Really not that much between them.

 

[my man otis]

I get burned whenever I change my lineup.It's a natural course of events.Let me give an example. Let's say you're stuck on three positions this week. You're stuck at QB, RB1, and WR2.Now, you know you've got a good matchup at QB, so you're 65% sure that the QB you're starting will outscore the QB you're benching.You KNOW you've got it made at RB. The RB you're starting has about a 78% chance of outscoring the guy you bench.At WR2, you're not so sure. It's a toss up, but you're feeling good about your guy, who's got a 55% chance of outscoring his benched counterpart.Now, you go out there, and you lose the game by 2 points. You're killing yourself...if you ONLY had started that other guy...Stop it. Even with starting all the "correct" people, the ones with the BEST CHANCE of producing for you, you still only had a (.55*.78*.65), or a 27.8% chance of guessing ALL THREE correctly, and winning your game.Just because you make the right decision, doesn't mean the results will always follow. But remember, if you're making the right calls, you'll have an advantage over your opponent in the long run.And remember, it's a long season.

Coming from a math guy I couldn't have put it better myself. Great reply on a typically blown-over topic.Over the course of a season good decisions will win you games.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Thanks for taking the time for a serious reply. The guys who just see it as blaming someone else obviously only saw what they wanted in my post.

Yes, when I second-guess my lineups and make a change, it is usually a mistake. Trying to cut back on it this year.In regard to your post above, you'd probably have gotten less of that if you left "after looking at the cheatsheets" out of your titile. Not a criticism, and you explained it in your post, but the title alone could make it seem like you're blaming the cheatsheets

 

[redman]

I look at all the information available to me, then I decide who to start. No, I don't get burned by the cheatsheets, sometimes I make incorrect decisions.This desire to blame something/someone else just amazes me.

Great, not

Are you guys really this thick headed or just unable to read? One last time...I BLAME MYSELFGood Grief

So now you're blaming us too?

 

[fenwah]

I use them as a reference, but I always make up my mind on my own.

For example, they had Delhomme ahead of Alex Smith for QBs...by quite a large margin. I started Smith over Delhomme...net difference was +16 pts with my league's scoring system.

They had Dillon at 30 but Bush at a higher number. I started Bush ahead of Dillon...Dillon netted 9 pts in my league...Bush 2 pts.

I could follow the cheatsheets religously...but what's the fun in that? It's a great reference to refer too...but I think ultimately you need to make the decisions.

I subscribe to FBGs for their articles (just like I only subscribe to Playboy for their articles), up to the minute email alerts, and of course the DraftDominator.

I think Dodds and his crew need to publish a 2007 FFG's calendar (there have to be some decent looking women subscribers out there).

 

[lod2005]

Cheatsheets?

LOL. Why would you base your lineup on other people's opionion's? Coach your team. Make a decision.

LOD is 2-0 and the #1 team in the league with great coaching, scouting and drafting.

 

[Gargoylez]

The final decision is definately your own... but my beef is when the tools you have to make that decision are poor. So you make a decision based ona few things and one of those things are a service you pay for. Is it your fauly, of course, but it sure doesn't help when they rank someone out of the starting lineup and they score enough points to be top 5 of the week. That is just flat out POOR projecting and to me shows signs of laziness.

Yes. Final decision is your own. But getting bad info to help fuel the poor decisions... doesn't help.

 

[BIGDAL88]

By the way, the 18 spot happened to be exactly 2 points off the 9 spot in the projections. I think that is one thing that gets overlooked when people look at cheatsheets. Is there really that much difference between QB #20 and QB# 10 projection wise. Generally its only an extra couple points, or 1 less pick, or 60 more yards... Really not that much between them.

Very nice point!I don't use the cheatsheets much anymore at all.Study matchupsStudy injuriesGo to other teams MBoards and ask questions.My opinion, glance at the cheetsheets, make sure some weird name isn't in the top 3rd of the list, and go from there.Good Luck to the OP-dal-

 

[Angry Beavers]

I use the cheetsheets as another source of information in trying to determine a lineup, but ultimately the decision has to be yours. Also, trust your first instinct - if you overthink it you will just screw yourself.

 

[BowlingBartenderCory]

i pulled mike vick for phillip rivers at QB this week. vick has historically been bad against TB, and the Tenn defense is putrid. i'm gonna lose because of it.

How many passes were ypu projecting Rivers to attempt in that game?

 

[BowlingBartenderCory]

Look at it this way

You are (likely) as much of an expert in FF as Dodds or anybody else on these boards. You are (likely) more of an expert on the players on your own team than Dodds or anybody else on these boards simply because you've followed your guys more closely.

Trust your gut -- cheatsheets can be a good sanity check, but when it comes to your guys, you are the expert.

 

[GregR_2]

The final decision is definately your own... but my beef is when the tools you have to make that decision are poor. So you make a decision based ona few things and one of those things are a service you pay for. Is it your fauly, of course, but it sure doesn't help when they rank someone out of the starting lineup and they score enough points to be top 5 of the week. That is just flat out POOR projecting and to me shows signs of laziness.

Yes. Final decision is your own. But getting bad info to help fuel the poor decisions... doesn't help.

So you think it's more likely laziness than say... that predicting what a specific player will score in a given week is very hard to do with great accuracy?

 

[GregR_2]

First of all, this is not a whining post and I'm not dogging FBG's in the least. My problem is that I continue to beat myself by second guessing myself. I always say I'm not going to do that again, and yet when I see that the experts have a certain player ranked MUCH lower than I do, I tend to change my lineup. I consider myself a very good fantasy player. I have won on a consistent basis since I started playing 7 years ago. So, my question is...am I the only one who does this? I know there are a bunch of sharks out there who will say they never look at the cheatsheets or if they do, they wouldn't change their lineup. If that's the case tell me HOW! Maybe I just have too much time on my hands. I do my homework. I do my projections. I set my lineup and then I LOOK AT THE CHEATSHEETS! If they are close I do nothing, but if they are extremely different I have the tendency to doubt myself rather than the experts. So far, this has been burning me more this year than it has in the past. Again, I want to make it clear that I am blaming NO ONE BUT MYSELF.Is there some sort of support group for this? HELP

I would suggest pulling back from the situation a moment, taking a deep breath, and looking at it from a wider perspective. Let's consider some things at play here.Human nature is to remember the times we got it wrong more than the times we got it right. 6 weeks from now, I'm probably not going to remember that I reconsidered Bulger vs Warner week 1 because of the cheatsheets and passing matchups and went with Warner. I'm probably not going to remember that input from FBGs helped push me off the fence of T. Jones vs Gore and I got it right. But I'll probably remember much longer going with Plummer week 1 and getting negative points, and it would last even longer if I'd lost that game. So the first thing to ask yourself is, are your second-guesses really wrong more than they are right?The second thing I'd consider is that you say "So far, this has been burning me more this year than it has in the past." I would think that everyone in FF is poorer at projecting weekly results in the first few games of the year because we don't have much track record to go on. Teams haven't revealed their true playbook yet, QBs haven't started to show their tendencies of who they favor throwing to, we don't know which teams have built a good D or whose O has finally gelled, etc. So I would ask myself if 2 weeks worth of results during probably the hardest time to predict things is something to tear myself up over.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I hate waffling on a lineup decision, going with my "head" instead of my gut losing because of it. It happens though.

This past week for me was picking up and starting the Bengals defense against the Browns and leaving the Buffalo defense on the bench. I made the move Sunday morning. I figured the Bengals defense against the terrible Cleveland offensive line was a gimme. I saw a potential big day from Culpepper and Chambers against a secondary starting 2 rookies. And yet my gut was telling me that Buffalo has a very underrated defense this year and that their front 4 are going to create a lot of sacks and turnovers. But I didn't trust my gut and will probably lose my matchup this week based on that decision. It hurts, but I still feel like I made the "correct" decision by the book.

 

[thayman]

I also try to remember that though I change my lineup and get burned, there are quite a few times that I swap out and it pays big time. So I figure it balances out in the long run.

 

[mad sweeney]

How's this, last 2 years I've cost myself the league championship by last minute second guessing. Without the details, both times during the semifinals I made a last second change the morning of to a player I thought would do well. And he did. Both times the player I put in did well as I expected and scored higher than the cheatsheets ranked them. Sadly, the guys I benched had season highs and had I kept them in I would have won the games. The nest week I breezed through the 3rd place game with a higher total than the league winner. In this case, had I followed the cheatsheets I would have won 2 straight championships.

So now my rule is...never change your lineup on gameday, barring last minute injuries, deactivations or whatever. Second guessing sucks, don't do it. Thenyou have regret on top of the ignominy of defeat!

 

[Kano321]

IMO - If you have multiple choices each week, you have done a great job of draftifng. There are a lot teams out there where the owners don't have that luxury, granted, that does remove this scenario of who to start each week (as long as no one gets hurt). But that is not why you are looking at FBG's, having one lineup each week is boring and you can't dominate, intimidate, and dangle your "bench" players to improve your team down the road.

I have the same problem every week so I know your pain, more than once my bench has outscored my starters, I get razzed about it a lot, but it's amazing how many people tend to ask for my opinion and ask for trades through out a season. But since each season is different and a lot of the early projections are based on the history that we have, mostly last years stats, the key is not to get too worked up over the first couple of weeks. Trends are starting to emerge, so now you can start to look at those flyers you took in draft that aren't and jettison them (to give yourself more desicisons down the road).

Funny how we think.

 

[Gargoylez]

The final decision is definately your own... but my beef is when the tools you have to make that decision are poor. So you make a decision based ona few things and one of those things are a service you pay for. Is it your fauly, of course, but it sure doesn't help when they rank someone out of the starting lineup and they score enough points to be top 5 of the week. That is just flat out POOR projecting and to me shows signs of laziness.

Yes. Final decision is your own. But getting bad info to help fuel the poor decisions... doesn't help.

So you think it's more likely laziness than say... that predicting what a specific player will score in a given week is very hard to do with great accuracy?

Being OFF 30+ places? Means to me, they glanced over it and said... ehhh he wont be good and move on, instead of taking the situation, who they are playing, what role the player is playign on that team... it wasn't a one way or the other... it was pretty blantent. I know I am harping on this... but FBG's did this to me last year. I use them to help me make a decision... YES the final decision is MY FAULT/MY GLORY. But you depend on things to help you make a decision and when they are 30 places OFF on the rankings... THATS HORRID. I even called them out pre-game on that projection.... Sorry. I love FBG's and they have given me 4+ years of above .500 fantasy football. BUT on the flip side, tehy have also douched me with some really bad projections.

 

[GregR_2]

The final decision is definately your own... but my beef is when the tools you have to make that decision are poor. So you make a decision based ona few things and one of those things are a service you pay for. Is it your fauly, of course, but it sure doesn't help when they rank someone out of the starting lineup and they score enough points to be top 5 of the week. That is just flat out POOR projecting and to me shows signs of laziness.

Yes. Final decision is your own. But getting bad info to help fuel the poor decisions... doesn't help.

So you think it's more likely laziness than say... that predicting what a specific player will score in a given week is very hard to do with great accuracy?

Being OFF 30+ places? Means to me, they glanced over it and said... ehhh he wont be good and move on, instead of taking the situation, who they are playing, what role the player is playign on that team... it wasn't a one way or the other... it was pretty blantent. I know I am harping on this... but FBG's did this to me last year. I use them to help me make a decision... YES the final decision is MY FAULT/MY GLORY. But you depend on things to help you make a decision and when they are 30 places OFF on the rankings... THATS HORRID. I even called them out pre-game on that projection.... Sorry. I love FBG's and they have given me 4+ years of above .500 fantasy football. BUT on the flip side, tehy have also douched me with some really bad projections.

Sorry I still don't get it. Are you saying because Rex Grossman was the #1 QB this week that no one should have had him ranked really low? If so I guess I'm lazy too.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Granted, Favre had done nothing in week 1, but let's face it, he's still Brett Favre. He got 5 less points than Manning yesterday in my scoring system.

That sounds like a pretty broken system.

 

[Gargoylez]

The final decision is definately your own... but my beef is when the tools you have to make that decision are poor. So you make a decision based ona few things and one of those things are a service you pay for. Is it your fauly, of course, but it sure doesn't help when they rank someone out of the starting lineup and they score enough points to be top 5 of the week. That is just flat out POOR projecting and to me shows signs of laziness.

Yes. Final decision is your own. But getting bad info to help fuel the poor decisions... doesn't help.

So you think it's more likely laziness than say... that predicting what a specific player will score in a given week is very hard to do with great accuracy?

Being OFF 30+ places? Means to me, they glanced over it and said... ehhh he wont be good and move on, instead of taking the situation, who they are playing, what role the player is playign on that team... it wasn't a one way or the other... it was pretty blantent. I know I am harping on this... but FBG's did this to me last year. I use them to help me make a decision... YES the final decision is MY FAULT/MY GLORY. But you depend on things to help you make a decision and when they are 30 places OFF on the rankings... THATS HORRID. I even called them out pre-game on that projection.... Sorry. I love FBG's and they have given me 4+ years of above .500 fantasy football. BUT on the flip side, tehy have also douched me with some really bad projections.

Sorry I still don't get it. Are you saying because Rex Grossman was the #1 QB this week that no one should have had him ranked really low? If so I guess I'm lazy too.

I knew this would happen.Deuce = Goalline back, playing the Packers. He was almost a shoe in for at least a TD and 15 or so carries. That was not a debate, that was a given barring injury. That is NOT some surprise, or something different. That is what Deuce does... when a decent offense is around him.

Grossman looking like a real NFL QB... and NOT injured? when did that happen before? Rarely if ever. I would appreciate a comparison of apples to apples. If I had issues at my QB spot I would of taken a flyer on Grossman considering Berriam's emergence and how poor the Titans are.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Being OFF 30+ places?

OH MY GOD. FOOTBALL IS UNPREDICTABLE AT TIMES? NO WAY!!!Seriously, as I said before, the goal is to get it right more often than not. If you're getting it right more than your leaguemates, that's your advantage.NOBODY is going to get everything right. NOBODY. Even the smartest FF player will occassionally completely miss something, mainly due to random chance.

 

[Gargoylez]

Being OFF 30+ places?

OH MY GOD. FOOTBALL IS UNPREDICTABLE AT TIMES? NO WAY!!!Seriously, as I said before, the goal is to get it right more often than not. If you're getting it right more than your leaguemates, that's your advantage.NOBODY is going to get everything right. NOBODY. Even the smartest FF player will occassionally completely miss something, mainly due to random chance.

Good post. That is my point, you look at it as a shoulder shrug I look it as, something that needs to be addressed. It was a spot or two difference, we are talking 30 spots which will get overlooked on this board of butt kissers. it wasnt 10 spots, which is VERY acceptable... 20? no. Whcih to me would be disappointing... but 30?!!! Damn. Thats unacceptable. Yeah everyone makes mistakes... but this isnt an isolated incident. Dont ask other times, I dont write them down, or probably cant remember them, but they do have a hard on for Deuce, tehy always downgrade him, with or without Bush...

 

[barndog]

So you think it's more likely laziness than say... that predicting what a specific player will score in a given week is very hard to do with great accuracy?

But you depend on things to help you make a decision and when they are 30 places OFF on the rankings... THATS HORRID. I even called them out pre-game on that projection.... Sorry. I love FBG's and they have given me 4+ years of above .500 fantasy football. BUT on the flip side, tehy have also douched me with some really bad projections.

Off a large number of places for a single player sometimes is almost to be expected. The real question about their accuracy is how their rankings overall compare to results. You're paying for a high correlation, not a perfect prediction. The laziness bit is just BS. These guys work hard at this.If you can do better, put out your shingle. I've seen others question the rationale behind certain projections and I think that is the way to approach these things. Find out what Dodds thinks that led to that numerical outcome and you begin to identify differences in perspective, ways to improve, etc. I think as users we need to educate ourselves about the info and learn to use it to augment our own thinking.

 

[One]

If somebody REALLY thinks they can predict spot-on and get projections right week in and week out, then I invite them to quit their day job and start your own site.

FBG's never guaranteed their projections, nor should they have to. I usually make my own lineups, then on some close decisions I have questions on I'll look at what other people have projected and check their justifications. I don't have the time to break down defenders, defensive schemes, past history ect..

Use FBG as a way to find an angle you wouldn't have thought of.

If you're looking for a crystal ball, you're outta luck.

 

[bbuster]

IMO - If you have multiple choices each week, you have done a great job of draftifng. There are a lot teams out there where the owners don't have that luxury, granted, that does remove this scenario of who to start each week (as long as no one gets hurt). But that is not why you are looking at FBG's, having one lineup each week is boring and you can't dominate, intimidate, and dangle your "bench" players to improve your team down the road.I have the same problem every week so I know your pain, more than once my bench has outscored my starters, I get razzed about it a lot, but it's amazing how many people tend to ask for my opinion and ask for trades through out a season. But since each season is different and a lot of the early projections are based on the history that we have, mostly last years stats, the key is not to get too worked up over the first couple of weeks. Trends are starting to emerge, so now you can start to look at those flyers you took in draft that aren't and jettison them (to give yourself more desicisons down the road).Funny how we think.

Very good points here. The particular league that I have the most problems with is the one that should seemingly be the easiest. It's the only league that I play with only 10 teams. The only reason I play in it is because it's the only league that I have the option to go to a live draft with guys I know. Giving up a livewe draft would be like giving up Christmas, B-Days, etc... The problem with these leagues is obvious. We only draft 14 rounds. A player pool of 140. You don't have to know much about football to have solid guys on your team. There is no room for your sleeper picks...there's not even room to carry extra guys to cover bye weeks. Still, I always end the draft with these guys with a clearly superior roster. I actually wish sometimes that we just started our entire roster weekly. It would reveal the weaknesses in the teams that can't draft after the first few rounds. In all of my other leagues, I enjoy putting my weekly lineup in. It's part of the fun once the draft is over. I still drafted well in these leagues and have some of the luxury of deciding between equal players, but they are mostly leagues filled with guys from these boards and the competition is great.I really appreciate the guys who took the time to seriously respond to this post. I want to make it clear that I'm not implying in any way that FBG's rankings are good, bad, or otherwise. I respect these guys and as I said I think they put out the best product on the market. I love the articles, DD, updates, and everything else they put out, including the cheatsheets. I just need to learn to trust my own gut whether it's right or wrong so that I can truly enjoy every aspect of the greatest game on earth!To the guy who made the lazy comment... I knew right away who you were talking about. They took the time to answer your tirade in you're Deuce is ranked too low thread. That in and of itself shows that they think about everything they do. They have reasons for everything. They work very hard on this website. FWIW, Deuce is the guy who I put back on my bench. I understood the arguments they made regarding him and decided to go with them instead of my gut. It has nothing to do with right or wrong. The bottom line is that if you don't coach your own team, you are not going to have as much fun. I just need to remember this, and that is the reason why I started this thread.

 

[SickThing]

Respect the research driving the sheets' rankings enough to scrutinize the differences from your own well thought opinions, but make sure to always think for yourself. It's the only way you'll learn insead of just being a mindless data entry operator just passing along someone's else's numbers. For if you play exclusively by their rankings, the blame really falls on you, not them, for you didn't give enough effort thinking for yourself.

If you thought it out and you were wrong, then you are just another common victim of the unpredictable chances, just like those who spent a lot of time and research into the sheets. But at least if you really thought about it, so there's less blame to go around to those who you let make the decisions for you.

 

[dickey moe]

Cheatsheets?LOL. Why would you base your lineup on other people's opionion's? Coach your team. Make a decision. LOD is 2-0 and the #1 team in the league with great coaching, scouting and drafting.

WTH is this guy? I've seen him pimping himself in here no less than three times today.

 

[montanagold]

My problem is this...

Every year I've subscribed here I've been worse!? How is that possible... I'm 0-2 again... Last season was my worst with a 7-6 record... and I started 0-3.

I'm starting to call it the curse!

MG

 

[kal-el]

Three points:

1) Most lineup decisions are basically coin flips. If you make the right decision 60% of the time you're doing well. This is why I try to look at the FBG projections instead of the cheatsheets--to remind myself that we're talk about very fine distinctions in projecting fantasy points.

2) We tend to remember the lineup changes we make that don't work out. I think we take the changes we make that do work out for granted. Every year I think that I should keep a journal of the close decisions I make each week and see how often I'm right over the course of a season. Too lazy to do it to date.

3) At the end of the day, a football game is 22 large men running at very fast speeds and colliding with one another. Do we really think this is something that can be accurately forecased on a consistent basis?

 

[Oscar]

Burned twice this week on Amani Toomer. Substituted him for Jenkins in one league and Nate Burelson in another. Lost both leagues by a total of 7 points.

In another league I had Bledsoe in my lineup and at the last minute changed it back to Delhoumme. Lost by 2 points in that league.

Last week, I started Droughns over Gore (just to see how he would do) and lost by 4 points.

 

[H.K.]

Line-up decisions are easier made when you draft starters first, then back-ups. Often I see people taking a third or fourth RB before they get their TE1 or WR2 or WR3. This causes them to take the middle of the pack guys later in the draft and they constantly face decisions on who to start all year or try to trade an RB3 for more than he is worth at other positions.

Same thing happens when people try QBBC or DEFBC....constant decisions forced on yourself by the way you drafted your team.

 

[NYGus]

Had Favre penciled in most of the week,until I saw Warner ranked way ahead of him on almost every cheat sheet I saw.Lost this week by 3 points.

That's a matchup issue. No way I sit Favre at home against the Saints in favor of Warner on the road against the NFC champs. Sometimes it goes against you but I have long since given up on the 'start your studs no matter what' theory. Hang in there and use the cheat sheet as a guide, much like you would on draft day.