Does the "Thursday Fade" apply to week 1? (1 Viewer)

[(HULK)]

The rationale behind it is that on a short week, teams have less time to install their offense for that game, whereas Defense is pretty easy to do in a short week. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the stats do support slightly less scoring in Thursday night games.

Thing is, all the preseason games were last Thursday, so this isn't really a short week. But, comparatively, it still is. They've had 7 days to prepare while the rest of the league will have had 10.

Add in that offenses typically start out a little slower early in the year.

NE and Pitt are filled with players that people typically want for DFS.

So, fade or not this week?

 

[topman]

I would say you do not fade this Thursday. I would be cautious and I personally would not be using any New England/Pittsburg RB although normally this is the one position you can normally play on Thursday's. If you like Brady or Rothlisburger for the price I would use them and their WRs and TEs as you would if it was a primetime Monday/Sunday night game.

I believe the coaching staff started preparing sooner than Thursday last week for this game the preparation for this game will have begun as soon as Brady was announced able to play week one for New England and that is when Pittsburg started doing their prep or possibly changing their prep.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

There are two separate reasons to fade Thursday players.

The first reason applies to both cash games and tournaments: Offenses on Thursday night, especially in the passing game, tend not to perform all that well. (Running games, by contrast, do perfectly fine.)

The second reason applies only to tournaments: For whatever reason, Thursday players are disproportionately highly owned. People just can't wait until Sunday to see their lineup start to score points.

Week 1 might be an exception to the first reason, but it's not an exception to the second reason. I think it's fine to have major studs like Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski even if everyone else will also own them. But in GPPs, I don't really want the less consistent players if they are over-owned.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I'm largely fading Thursday in my cash games, but in my GPPs I'm not. I realize there may be some high ownership numbers but I think the explosion potential is there with these teams and personnel.

 

[karmarooster]

Fading this Thursday is a risk. There are 2 top 5ish QBs, and each of the top WR and TE. All of them will have inflated ownership percentage because "FOOTBALLS BACK!@!#!"

If you don't have any of Brady/Ben/Brown/Gronk, and one or more blow up for a big game (which is entirely possible given the spotlight, Brady's appeal, lack of Laveon, bad defenses all around), it will hurt more than normal.

 

[jandyt]

Fading this Thursday is a risk. There are 2 top 5ish QBs, and each of the top WR and TE. All of them will have inflated ownership percentage because "FOOTBALLS BACK!@!#!"

If you don't have any of Brady/Ben/Brown/Gronk, and one or more blow up for a big game (which is entirely possible given the spotlight, Brady's appeal, lack of Laveon, bad defenses all around), it will hurt more than normal.

This is a big part of the reason that I'm going to avoid the Thursday game in week 1. Think I did throw in one GPP but besides not playing the th-mon slate this week.

 

[karmarooster]

Fading this Thursday is a risk. There are 2 top 5ish QBs, and each of the top WR and TE. All of them will have inflated ownership percentage because "FOOTBALLS BACK!@!#!"

If you don't have any of Brady/Ben/Brown/Gronk, and one or more blow up for a big game (which is entirely possible given the spotlight, Brady's appeal, lack of Laveon, bad defenses all around), it will hurt more than normal.

This is a big part of the reason that I'm going to avoid the Thursday game in week 1. Think I did throw in one GPP but besides not playing the th-mon slate this week.

I think that's pretty reasonable. I'm going with a much smaller Thursday slate than normal.

 

[John Lee]

There is zero risk if you just wait until Sunday to play DFS this week...but there's plenty of downside if you decide to start tomorrow.

For cash games, I don't think it's a major advantage to have Gronk and/or Antonio Brown because there is so much value available on Sunday due to the salaries being released a month ago.

For GPP's, it's simple game strategy: Those guys (Gronk/Brown) will be 20+% owned. If they blow up and you have them, you gain little on the field...if they blow up and you don't have them, you are dead in the water. Meanwhile, if you fade them and they kill it, you're screwed...and if you fade them and they do nothing, you've probably made a good move.

The game strategy says that in 50% of the scenarios, you have a negative outcome...in 25% of the scenarios, you will have a positive outcome...and in 25% of the scenarios, you will gain very little. Any time I'm 50% for a negative outcome, I'm avoiding it altogether.

For my money, I'm waiting until Sunday...I've waited ~30 weeks for this week, so a few more days isn't going to kill me.

**If you must play Thursday night's game, my recommendation is to play a low-dollar GPP on DK and roster Dion Lewis. Full PPR, pass-catching RB, high-scoring team, low salary, less than 8% owned = good GPP play**

 

[eoMMan]

Guys, guys....keep this quiet....okay? Are you ready?

Edelman is the guy to play Thursday.

 

[eoMMan]

There is zero risk if you just wait until Sunday to play DFS this week...but there's plenty of downside if you decide to start tomorrow.

For cash games, I don't think it's a major advantage to have Gronk and/or Antonio Brown because there is so much value available on Sunday due to the salaries being released a month ago.

For GPP's, it's simple game strategy: Those guys (Gronk/Brown) will be 20+% owned. If they blow up and you have them, you gain little on the field...if they blow up and you don't have them, you are dead in the water. Meanwhile, if you fade them and they kill it, you're screwed...and if you fade them and they do nothing, you've probably made a good move.

The game strategy says that in 50% of the scenarios, you have a negative outcome...in 25% of the scenarios, you will have a positive outcome...and in 25% of the scenarios, you will gain very little. Any time I'm 50% for a negative outcome, I'm avoiding it altogether.

For my money, I'm waiting until Sunday...I've waited ~30 weeks for this week, so a few more days isn't going to kill me.

**If you must play Thursday night's game, my recommendation is to play a low-dollar GPP on DK and roster Dion Lewis. Full PPR, pass-catching RB, high-scoring team, low salary, less than 8% owned = good GPP play**

Yes, I'm also bleeding love for Dion Lewis. Good play Thursday even though I'm always scared of the Patriots backs.

See what I did there with the bleeding love?

 

[Bhdevault]

There is zero risk if you just wait until Sunday to play DFS this week...but there's plenty of downside if you decide to start tomorrow.

For cash games, I don't think it's a major advantage to have Gronk and/or Antonio Brown because there is so much value available on Sunday due to the salaries being released a month ago.

For GPP's, it's simple game strategy: Those guys (Gronk/Brown) will be 20+% owned. If they blow up and you have them, you gain little on the field...if they blow up and you don't have them, you are dead in the water. Meanwhile, if you fade them and they kill it, you're screwed...and if you fade them and they do nothing, you've probably made a good move.

The game strategy says that in 50% of the scenarios, you have a negative outcome...in 25% of the scenarios, you will have a positive outcome...and in 25% of the scenarios, you will gain very little. Any time I'm 50% for a negative outcome, I'm avoiding it altogether.

For my money, I'm waiting until Sunday...I've waited ~30 weeks for this week, so a few more days isn't going to kill me.

**If you must play Thursday night's game, my recommendation is to play a low-dollar GPP on DK and roster Dion Lewis. Full PPR, pass-catching RB, high-scoring team, low salary, less than 8% owned = good GPP play**

Very well said. I have zero action on Thursday. Although I'll be flying out to Vegas too, so won't have much time for lineup adjustments.

Also, Tremblay's reason #2 is the biggest reason I play most Thursday's during the season. You will be amazed at how many people, even in cash games, load up on Thursday night games just to get action. It's almost like they think they HAVE to roster 4-5 players from that game.

 

[karmarooster]

There is zero risk if you just wait until Sunday to play DFS this week...but there's plenty of downside if you decide to start tomorrow.

For cash games, I don't think it's a major advantage to have Gronk and/or Antonio Brown because there is so much value available on Sunday due to the salaries being released a month ago.

For GPP's, it's simple game strategy: Those guys (Gronk/Brown) will be 20+% owned. If they blow up and you have them, you gain little on the field...if they blow up and you don't have them, you are dead in the water. Meanwhile, if you fade them and they kill it, you're screwed...and if you fade them and they do nothing, you've probably made a good move.

The game strategy says that in 50% of the scenarios, you have a negative outcome...in 25% of the scenarios, you will have a positive outcome...and in 25% of the scenarios, you will gain very little. Any time I'm 50% for a negative outcome, I'm avoiding it altogether.

For my money, I'm waiting until Sunday...I've waited ~30 weeks for this week, so a few more days isn't going to kill me.

**If you must play Thursday night's game, my recommendation is to play a low-dollar GPP on DK and roster Dion Lewis. Full PPR, pass-catching RB, high-scoring team, low salary, less than 8% owned = good GPP play**

Thanks for this! Cut back my Thursday action to a couple of lineups with about $3 each on there ... I think overall it's a much more challenging slate than the Sunday games!

 

[Scoresman]

Dodds is certainly not fading the Thursday games if the latest blog post is any indicator.

 

[karmarooster]

I tend to agree with his game script prediction, but don't think there's anyone on NE that can cover Brown. Ben and Brown will get theirs, whether in garbage time or not.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I tend to agree with his game script prediction, but don't think there's anyone on NE that can cover Brown. Ben and Brown will get theirs, whether in garbage time or not.

I agree completely. Ignoring the Thursday vs. Sunday debate, I think this game, ATL-PHI, and NYG-DAL are the highest scoring scripts out there.

 

[(HULK)]

With the weather, I'm now in on fading this one.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

With the weather, I'm now in on fading this one.

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it. I have Gronk in my cash lineup, but no one else. I have a GPP iteration that is built around the Ben-Brown stack with a little Dion on the side, but I may need to rethink that.

 

[topman]

Dodds is certainly not fading the Thursday games if the latest blog post is any indicator.

I don't see anything from Dodds in the Blog. Did I miss something?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I believe this is blog post being referred to.

 

[Scoresman]

I believe this is blog post being referred to.

Yeah that's the one. Really interested to hear how bullish Dodds is on Brady in the event of heavy rain.

 

[(HULK)]

With the weather, I'm now in on fading this one.

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it. I have Gronk in my cash lineup, but no one else. I have a GPP iteration that is built around the Ben-Brown stack with a little Dion on the side, but I may need to rethink that.

Not touching the game in GPPs. DeAngelo maybe in cash games.

 

[need2know]

Ouch it looks like rain and wind

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

With the weather, I'm now in on fading this one.

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it. I have Gronk in my cash lineup, but no one else. I have a GPP iteration that is built around the Ben-Brown stack with a little Dion on the side, but I may need to rethink that.

Not touching the game in GPPs. DeAngelo maybe in cash games.

Yeah, I may be pivoting. I have also been intrigued with throwing Dobson into a GPP just to see if he's filling the role of the "randon NE WR who catches 6 passes for 131 yards and 2 TDs".

 

[(HULK)]

With the weather, I'm now in on fading this one.

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it. I have Gronk in my cash lineup, but no one else. I have a GPP iteration that is built around the Ben-Brown stack with a little Dion on the side, but I may need to rethink that.

Not touching the game in GPPs. DeAngelo maybe in cash games.

Yeah, I may be pivoting. I have also been intrigued with throwing Dobson into a GPP just to see if he's filling the role of the "randon NE WR who catches 6 passes for 131 yards and 2 TDs".

I had a Brady/Amendola stack earlier, but I pulled it.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

With the weather, I'm now in on fading this one.

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it. I have Gronk in my cash lineup, but no one else. I have a GPP iteration that is built around the Ben-Brown stack with a little Dion on the side, but I may need to rethink that.

Not touching the game in GPPs. DeAngelo maybe in cash games.

Yeah, I may be pivoting. I have also been intrigued with throwing Dobson into a GPP just to see if he's filling the role of the "randon NE WR who catches 6 passes for 131 yards and 2 TDs".

I had a Brady/Amendola stack earlier, but I pulled it.

I wasn't thinking of a stack involving Dobson, maybe just a cheap WR3 to use instead of the obligatory names that everyone who's fading tonight will be using. Amendola could be starring in that role tonight too though.

Early season usage predictions suck.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

As a lesson to you newbies out there: don't fart around on lineup changes you want to make -- make them immediately. I didn't today, figuring I could do it after work. Then the missus got sucked into a work crisis and I'm solo with the kids. And then it's 5:00 into the 1st quarter and I remember I need to change my lineup.

My throw-away GPP with Ben/Brown stack is finished, but thankfully my cash action (Brown and Gronk) is still in fine shape. My Brady/Gronk stack big league is still in OK shape, but a full 21% stacked those 2 so I've hardly managed to separate myself from the crowd.

 

[need2know]

I avoided all last night. Wish I had bought gronk though.

 

[jandyt]

Ended playing one 50/50 with Gronk/Brown, one small GPP with Brady/Gronk/Brown and one GPP(with fairly decent overlay) with just Gronk. That was all of my Thurs action this week. So pretty just avoided it.

 

[Scoresman]

I used Dodds' patriot heavy lineup in about a half dozen 50/50s after reading and agreeing with his gut feel about the game. Also had the hourly weather forecast up and it showed a break in the rain during gametime hours. Sitting top 5 in most of them after last night. Even the "punt" of Dion Lewis nearly hit 3x value.

 

[Borden]

Went with Bolden over Lewis but I started Chandler in one entry