Dolphins shopping first pick in draft (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/footbal...,0,403944.story

Dolphins: No. 1 pick put up for sale

Dolphins General Manager Jeff Ireland might as well have put the No. 1 pick in this year's NFL draft on eBay.

When asked by the NFL Network about the team's approach with the top selection, Ireland said: "We're open for business."

Minutes later, he backed up his willingness to deal the pick by pointing out the 1-15 team he inherited has many needs.

"Rome wasn't built in a day, and this won't be built in a day either," Ireland said. "The No. 1 pick is no different from the 22nd pick. You've got to make the right selection. You just can't miss on it. We're going to do everything in our power to make the right choices, whether it be to take the pick or move down. We'll listen to all offers."

Unfortunately for the Dolphins this isn't a buyer's market, and two issues will complicate the Dolphins' ability to move the selection.

First, draft experts and scouts presently view only five players — LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan, Arkansas running back Darren McFadden, Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long and Virginia defensive end Chris Long — worthy of the top pick. And even though the NFL combine or individual workouts haven't taken place yet, none of the five is viewed as a clear-cut franchise player.

The second problem complicating trading the top spot is the financial commitment the team that uses it will have to make.

JaMarcus Russell played hardball with the Raiders, not reporting to camp until the second week of September when a deal that got him nearly $31 million guaranteed from a six-year contract worth roughly $60 million was finalized. The agent of this year's top pick likely won't settle for anything less than a four percent increase.

"The financial part that goes with that pick is a huge obstacle for some teams. There are a lot of teams that don't want to take on that kind of debt because it messes your cap up," said Lions President Matt Millen, who paid receiver Calvin Johnson a $27 million signing bonus last year as the No. 2 pick.

The financial impact is a huge obstical but if none of the top five players is seen as a sure fire franchise guy then trading the top pick has a double whammy. Kiper's top ten on his big board as of yesterday. Mel has Sed Ellis ahead of Ryan but Matt is right there at six.

Mel's Big BoardPlayer Yr. Pos. School Chg.

1. Darren McFadden Jr. RB Arkansas

2. Glenn Dorsey Sr. DT LSU

3. Jake Long Sr. OT Michigan

4. Chris Long Sr. DE Virginia

5. Sedrick Ellis Sr. DT USC

6. Matt Ryan Sr. QB Boston College

7. Ryan Clady Jr. OT Boise St.

8. Aqib Talib Jr. CB Kansas

9. Vernon Gholston Jr. DE Ohio St.

10. DeSean Jackson Jr. WR California

I think Jeff Ireland, the Dolphin GM, is right. Miami has a lot of holes and he should be looking to trade out of the top pick. The guaranteed portion of signing the top pick is the killer. $31 MILLION guaranteed plus an extra 4% to boot. With that money Miami could sign two of the top free agents on the market but it is earmarked for their first pick.

It sounds like their isn't one true cut blue chip franchise player in the top five but the top five is the cream of the crop so any team in the top five would be unwilling to trade up and pay extra is they are assured of getting one of the top players. So Miami pretty much is handchecked in trying to trade the top pick to any of the other teams in the top five.

Then the player that Miami will get with the top pick. Risk is the word. Many view Dorsey as a can't miss prospect. People may not follow the history of the draft as closely as others because DT historically has the highest bust rate of top ten picks in the draft for any teams who don't have Kiffen or Crennel/Belichick as their respective DCs.

Top ten drafted DTs since 1990, the last year that a DT truly hit big time to be a stud DT, Cortez Kennedy who was drafted 3rd.

1990 1 1 3 3 Cortez Kennedy Seahawks Miami (FL)

The Tez was a monster in the middle for the Seahawks and was worthy of a top pick.

1991 1 1 1 1 Russell Maryland Cowboys Miami (FL)

Maryland made the pro bowl a few times and helped the Boys to Super Bowl victories but he was never in the same class as Maryland. A good player but not a stud blue chip guy. Teams could get away with taking a guy like Maryland with the top pick back in the early nineties because their wasn't a true salary cap. Maryland was also a finishing touch on a SB dynasty which already had the blue chip QB/WR/RB and offensive line etc in place. They were running the first rotational D-Line and needed lots of warm bodies, Russell was better than a warm body but he wasn't a true stud DT. A team couldn't get away with taking a Russell Maryland with the top pick today due to the burdensome salary cap implications.

1992 1 1 1 1 Steve Emtman Colts Washington

Emtman, busteroo.

2 1 3 3 Sean Gilbert Rams Pittsburgh

Gilbert is the first of the underachievers. A guy whose motor wasn't always running. Sean Gilbert is the poster child of the risk in taking a DT at the top of the draft.

1994 1 1 1 1 Dan Wilkinson Bengals Ohio State

Big Daddy Wilkinson was a monumental bust.

2 1 7 7 Bryant Young 49ers Notre Dame

BY was a great selection but had injury problems early on and missed seasons, still a great pick.

3 1 8 8 Sam Adams Seahawks Texas A&M

Sam Adams never lived up to the expectations in Seattle due to the phenominal success they had with Cortez Kennedy. Sam was fat and out of shape but went onto glory with the Ravens when paired with fat and out of shape Tony Saragusa in a new scheme that worked for ONE YEAR in Baltimore till OCs figured it out. But Sam has stuck around and that means he was a worthy top ten DT pick.

1997 1 1 2 2 Darrell Russell Raiders USC

Looked for awhile like Darrell would be a great DT but his off-field demons tragically took over his life before he subcumbed to an early death.

2000 1 1 6 6 Corey Simon Eagles Florida State

Corey seemed to be on the Russell Marlyand path but poor conditioning did him in.

2001 1 1 3 3 Gerard Warren Browns Florida

Plan was to pair Big Money with Courtney Brown but Small Change was lazy and a waste.

2 1 6 6 Richard Seymour Patriots Georgia

EXCELLENT pick! Seymour isn't a true DT he's more of a 34 DT/DE hybrid who even drops in coverage. Ofcourse having Romeo Crennell and Bill Belichick to mold and shape him helped greatly in making him a star.

2002 1 1 6 6 Ryan Sims Chiefs North Carolina

Epic BUST!

2 1 9 9 John Henderson Jaguars Tennessee

Excellent pick, much better than people realize, big part of the stout Jag defense.

2003 1 1 4 4 Dewayne Robertson Jets Kentucky

Was working well as a true 43 DT but has struggled when the Jets tried switching to the 34.

2 1 6 6 Johnathan Sullivan Saints Georgia

Another EPIC BUST!

2007 1 1 10 10 Amobi Okoye Texans Louisville

Amazing prospect and still too early to determine but so far so good.

The line of declination should be drawn further from Cortez Kennedy who was the best true DT prospect, Seymour is more of a hybrid, but the salary cap has changed the landscape of the top pick. A team HAS to nail that top pick. Glenn Dorsey has widely been considered the top pick and a no-brain selection for the Dolphins. Darren McFadden would waste Ronnie Brown who is still in his prime. The Phins have Searcy at OLT so taking Jake Long would tie up too much money at OLT and Jake isn't considered in the same ballpark as Joe Thomas from last year's draft. Chris Long might be the pick since Jason Taylor has made it clear he'd like out of Miami but right now they have JT so taking Chris would mean a lot of talent/money at the DE position and the Dolphins may see the age on their defense with Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor and could be contemplating a change. Then their is Matt Ryan. Whoo boy. If you were an NFL GM would you bet the farm on Matt Ryan after your predicessor had taken Beck the year previous? Any rookie QB has enormous risk and typically take years of development.

I think the bust rate of top ten drafted DTs has been overlooked. For Dorsey to be the top pick and to take over $31 million from the Dolphins arsenal to sign free agents without even considering the risk if he busts is one thing but if Dorsey is just 'ok' as a DT he would be overpaid. For Glenn Dorsey to truly earn his top pick salary he'd have to produce on the level of a Cortez Kennedy or a Richard Seymour and that is just unfair and unwise to place that big of a bet on one kid like that considering the poor performance of past top ten drafted DTs. I agree with Jeff Ireland, try to trade that pick.

Thoughts?

 

[Marc Levin]

Great post - finally some reasonable thoughts on this idea.

 

[Texasmouth]

There are no cons to trading this pick. Their isnt a person who fits the Dolphins needs worthy of the #1 overall pick. Dorsey is a stud but he doesnt fit their system. Long is a stud but not #1 over all. The other Long is a stud as well but not worthy of #1 overall.

 

[Abraham]

I think you have to take Ryan. While he has a higher chance to bust and may not grade out as the best player, he's close enough. They all have a chance to bust and the dollars are MUCH easier to recoup from a QB in terms of ticket and jersey sales.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

love the Millen quote...

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

 

[Slinger]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

Why would you trade for just the 8th overall pick if you have the 1st?

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

Why would you trade for just the 8th overall pick if you have the 1st?

You wouldn't but the point he was trying to make was to invest less money into a prospect

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

Why would you trade for just the 8th overall pick if you have the 1st?

Millions of dollars. If the talent level is roughly equal, and this year it arguably is, why would you pay $20 Million more for a player that doesn't improve your team any more than a guy you could pay $20 million less for?I'm making the numbers up. I'm sure somewhere there's a chart showing what each pick got in salary and guaranteed money last year.Edit: Here we go... Using your example of the 1st and 8th pick.Jamarcus Russell - six-year $60 million with about $30 million guaranteed.Jamaal Anderson - five-year contract that can max out at $31 million. He will receive $15.361 million in guaranteesThat's $30 million worth of a lot of free agents that you can improve your team with rather than sinking it into one guy.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I think you have to take Ryan. While he has a higher chance to bust and may not grade out as the best player, he's close enough. They all have a chance to bust and the dollars are MUCH easier to recoup from a QB in terms of ticket and jersey sales.

I agree with you more than you might think but for different reasons. QB is the single most important position on the field bar none. SINGLE, being the key. People say defense which is 11 people or offensive line which is 5 people, the SINGLE most important position on the playing field is without question the quarterback position because they handle the snap on every regular play from scrimmage and have the greatest impact on every other position on the field than any other SINGLE position.I've seen Jon Beck. I'm far from sold on the 26, soon to be 27, year old rookie. Having a guy like Jon Beck adversely impacts the development/performance of top WR prospect like Ted Ginn Jr. WRs take time to develop but having a productive QB clearly helps in developing top drafted WR talent. Look at the top drafted WRs and when they took off on their development.1999 1 1 6 6 Torry Holt Rams North Carolina State Holt was unusual as he produced right out of the gate as a rookie but he had Kurt Warner and Mike Martz's offense. 2 1 8 8 David Boston Cardinals Ohio State Boston was great as a roid rager and burned out off the juice. 3 1 13 13 Troy Edwards Steelers Louisiana Tech Didn't have much at QB to work with.2000 1 1 4 4 Peter Warrick Bengals Florida State Warrick never panned out but he began with Akili Smith as his QB. 2 1 8 8 Plaxico Burress Steelers Michigan State PLax left prior to Big Ben. He was good in Pittsburgh though even with Tommy Gun Maddox as his QB. 3 1 10 10 Travis Taylor Ravens Florida Baltimore QBs have been woeful as has been Taylor's career.2001 1 1 8 8 David Terrell Bears Michigan Bear QBs, terrible. Same as TD's career. 2 1 9 9 Koren Robinson Seahawks North Carolina State Off-field demons. 3 1 15 15 Rod Gardner Redskins Clemson Never panned out but never had great QB play. 4 1 16 16 Santana Moss Jets Miami (FL) Hot and cold production, hot and cold QB play.2002 1 1 13 13 Donte Stallworth Saints Tennessee Hamstring issues early on and iffy QB play early on. Now with Brady he's third man on totem pole but he fits. 2 1 19 19 Ashley Lelie Broncos Hawaii Bust. Jake the Snake was an 'ok' QB but busts happen even with 'ok' QBs throwing the rock. 3 1 20 20 Javon Walker Packers Florida State Blew up with Farve throwing him the rock. Was playing lights out with Jake the Snake but when the rookie took over, Javon's numbers plunged.2003 1 1 2 2 Charles Rogers Lions Michigan State Ugh, forgot about him. Nothing much at QB to help his development. 2 1 3 3 Andre Johnson Texans Miami (FL) Great WR who has developed sans great or even good nuff QB play. 3 1 17 17 Bryant Johnson Cardinals Penn State Lost in the Anquan/Fitzgerald shuffle but has had moments when Warner was hot.2004 1 1 3 3 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals Pittsburgh Warner helped to develop Fitzy. 2 1 7 7 Roy Williams Lions Texas Another great WR who has developed sans great QB play. 3 1 9 9 Reggie Williams Jaguars Washington Mediocre QB play has hurt his development. Gerrard taking over really has helped resurrect his career. 4 1 13 13 Lee Evans Bills Wisconsin Verticle threat and he had a QB, JP Loshman, who could wing it in a verticle passing attack. Ofcourse JP was hot and cold and most of Evan's production came when JP was hot. 5 1 15 15 Michael Clayton Buccaneers Louisiana State Injury bug.2005 1 1 3 3 Braylon Edwards Browns Michigan Didn't do anything with Charlie Frye, DA took over and he blew up. 2 1 7 7 Troy Williamson Vikings South Carolina No QB, no WR development. 3 1 10 10 Mike Williams Lions USC See above.2006 1 1 25 25 Santonio Holmes Steelers Ohio State Santonio meet Big Ben, Big Ben meet Santonio. Santonio is starting to hit his stride and should develop as long as Ben rides with a helmet.2007 1 1 2 2 Calvin Johnson Lions Georgia Tech Great prospect and decent QB production from Kitna. So far so good. 2 1 9 9 Ted Ginn Jr. Dolphins Ohio State Great return flashes. Some WR flashes. This kid could really use a QB who can produce to help his development.Now the big questions, is Matt Ryan worth the top pick in the draft? Could Jon Beck turn into a great or good nuff QB?I'm not sold on Ryan. I think he can be good nuff which would help Ginn but being good nuff doesn't warrant being paid top pick dollar. The only way I'd take Ryan with the top pick is if I were completely sold on him, which I'm not. OR if I worked out a low-ball deal with his agent. I simply could not pay Matt Ryan $31 PLUS a bump of 8% for a QB. Their is Beck. I've seen this far too often where a guy who didn't deserve to be named starter is thrust into the starting position and fails, fails, FAILS. Charlie Frye is the most recent and glaring example. Some Browns fans were like the crying Brittany Spears apologist in the way they would defend any Frye criticism and saying it was too early to yank Frye and to keep surrounding him with talent and eventually he'd hit. No he sucked and he had plenty of weapons to work with. The longer a team stays with a dog QB the more it hurts the rest of that team. The prudent thing they should do is to keep trying till they have a guy in place and not waste time on shlubs like, Shuan King, Chris Redman, Quincy Carter, Josh McCowan, Drew Henson, Kyle Orton, Tavaris Jackson, etc et el...But if the Dolphins take Ryan it means they won't get production out of him for at least a year or two, if he does blow up, and never if he doesn't. I think he'll be 'ok' but if he's the top pick in the draft he'll be vastly overpaid and that is the rub. I just don't think he's worth the top pick. The Dolphins need a QB but they need production right now to help develop Ginn. They also need to not pay top pick dollar for a QB so they can use that money to sign a top free agent and maybe pair Berrian with Ginn, or get a T-Suggs to replace Jason Taylor on the D-Line or any number of other free agent options. They could trade out of the top pick with Philly and get McNabb but Donovan is past 30 and hasn't made it thru a season unscathed for years. They could go for Derek Anderson and pick up an extra second round pick from the Browns. DA is two years younger than Beck and has already proven he can produce and he helped develop Braylon Edwards. The Dolphins could ask for the Browns second round pick this year to give them three second round picks. They could save over $30 million from dropping out of the top pick and then sign one of the top free agents. They would get the QB production to help develop Ginn, get a top free agent to help their defense, and pick up an additional second round pick this year. Or they could stick with Jon Beck and watch him flail and hurt the develoment of Ginn or draft Matt Ryan and overpay him and wait two years before he produces as Ginn waits for him to develop. They also would be without any top free agent they could sign with the money saved by not being straddled with the top pick. More likely than not, they stay put and take Dorsey. I like Glenn but Miami needs QB production and could use more than just one guy. Even if Dorsey turns into Cortez Kennedy they will need to surround him with at least one more blue chip D-Lineman to get the impact from him. And that won't help Beck or Ginn or that offense which needs a lot of help.

 

[coolnerd]

quality analysis in this thread

 

[faux_bear]

This is an awful year to have the number 1 overall pick. I would venture to say that every year is a bad year to have the number 1 pick unless a team is willing to trade for it.

The NFL is probably the only league where having the number 1 overall pick may be more likely to hurt your team than help it. Why? Because even if you draft a good player, the money you spend and the cap hit you take prevents you from improving in other areas...

This sucks for Dolphins fans.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The Tunafins are in the same spot that the 49ers were in when they were "forced" to take Alex Smith.

 

[Koya]

Why anyone would want the #1 pick this year I dont know. NO one is worth the $$s that the spot will command. The NFL needs to restructure rookie contracts because it is far too often the case nowadays where you DON'T want the #1 pick.

 

[pollardsvision]

it's almost always beneficial to trade out of the top spot.

personally, i've never understood why GM's wouldn't just take a "bad" trade just to get out of it.

the amount of money it costs to be wrong is simply debilitating to a franchise that's bad enough to get the #1 pick.

it seems the fear of being the GM that traded away a chance to get a peyton manning has prevented most GMs from trading the pick, even though it's almost always the right thing to do.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

This is an awful year to have the number 1 overall pick. I would venture to say that every year is a bad year to have the number 1 pick unless a team is willing to trade for it.

The NFL is probably the only league where having the number 1 overall pick may be more likely to hurt your team than help it. Why? Because even if you draft a good player, the money you spend and the cap hit you take prevents you from improving in other areas...

This sucks for Dolphins fans.

I think the competition comittee needs to look into this. Any team with the top pick could be harmed for years in a bad draft class. No one can move up due to the exhorbinant cost in terms of cap dollars. I think any team bad enough to be picking #1 should get some sort of salary cap relief, maybe $10 EDIT MILLION that can only go to the guaranteed portion of the first pick's contract. They would be free to trade the pick and the garaunteed cap relief to any team but I agree, something needs to be done. The way it stands is unfair to ANY team with the top pick since right now, its a long term salary cap burden.

 

[pollardsvision]

this is one of the few areas where the nfl needs to mimic the nba.

given that the nba has the worst collection of GM's in pro sports history, the league helps them out with contracts for draft picks already spelled out.

even more amazing is that, in the nba, the #1 draft pick really can change the course of a franchise. this is extremely rare in the nfl.

a pre-determined rookie salary structure would make even more sense in the nfl than it does in the nba.

 

[Abraham]

Wouldn't it be great if a bad record meant you were able to choose what spot you wanted? So the Dolphins could pick the 3rd spot and end up with Long, Dorsey, or Ryan at a good value. And some team that finished in the playoffs would be saddled with the #1 contract. Imagine if the Giants (since NE doesn't have a pick) had the last spot to select and all that was left was the #1? They'd draft Jake Long probably, have to pay him as the #1 pick (even though he's the 4th or 5th best player in the draft) and go from there.

Good fun, everyone.

 

[Spike]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

Why would you trade for just the 8th overall pick if you have the 1st?

Millions of dollars. If the talent level is roughly equal, and this year it arguably is, why would you pay $20 Million more for a player that doesn't improve your team any more than a guy you could pay $20 million less for?I'm making the numbers up. I'm sure somewhere there's a chart showing what each pick got in salary and guaranteed money last year.Edit: Here we go... Using your example of the 1st and 8th pick.Jamarcus Russell - six-year $60 million with about $30 million guaranteed.Jamaal Anderson - five-year contract that can max out at $31 million. He will receive $15.361 million in guaranteesThat's $30 million worth of a lot of free agents that you can improve your team with rather than sinking it into one guy.

For this reason, is it at all feasible that the Dolphins (if they keep the pick) pull a Minnesota Vikings and simply time out on their pick until around 1.05 or so?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

Why would you trade for just the 8th overall pick if you have the 1st?

Millions of dollars. If the talent level is roughly equal, and this year it arguably is, why would you pay $20 Million more for a player that doesn't improve your team any more than a guy you could pay $20 million less for?I'm making the numbers up. I'm sure somewhere there's a chart showing what each pick got in salary and guaranteed money last year.Edit: Here we go... Using your example of the 1st and 8th pick.Jamarcus Russell - six-year $60 million with about $30 million guaranteed.Jamaal Anderson - five-year contract that can max out at $31 million. He will receive $15.361 million in guaranteesThat's $30 million worth of a lot of free agents that you can improve your team with rather than sinking it into one guy.

For this reason, is it at all feasible that the Dolphins (if they keep the pick) pull a Minnesota Vikings and simply time out on their pick until around 1.05 or so?

I believe the Vikes still paid the amount according to their original draft slot, not where they actually picked.

 

[Marc Levin]

Nice analysis in this thread.

I don't know how anyone can look at Parcells and think he is going to take Matt Ryan. You won't find anyone in Miami begging for a #1 overall QB - and everyone would be perfectly happy with either Long or Dorsey.

It's nice mental masturbation here, but DolFans are ready for a non-sexy #1 overall, non-jersey selling, selection.

Whether Huizenga sees it the same way, I don't know. But, Huizenga is the most hands OFF owner the NFL has ever seen.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Nice analysis in this thread.

I don't know how anyone can look at Parcells and think he is going to take Matt Ryan. You won't find anyone in Miami begging for a #1 overall QB - and everyone would be perfectly happy with either Long or Dorsey.

It's nice mental masturbation here, but DolFans are ready for a non-sexy #1 overall, non-jersey selling, selection.

Whether Huizenga sees it the same way, I don't know. But, Huizenga is the most hands OFF owner the NFL has ever seen.

Can we say that around here?

 

[Slinger]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

Why would you trade for just the 8th overall pick if you have the 1st?

Millions of dollars. If the talent level is roughly equal, and this year it arguably is, why would you pay $20 Million more for a player that doesn't improve your team any more than a guy you could pay $20 million less for?I'm making the numbers up. I'm sure somewhere there's a chart showing what each pick got in salary and guaranteed money last year.Edit: Here we go... Using your example of the 1st and 8th pick.Jamarcus Russell - six-year $60 million with about $30 million guaranteed.Jamaal Anderson - five-year contract that can max out at $31 million. He will receive $15.361 million in guaranteesThat's $30 million worth of a lot of free agents that you can improve your team with rather than sinking it into one guy.

We're on the same page there and I would definitely want to have the 8th as opposed to the 1st if I'm the Dolphins, but they would have to get something else in return, even if it's minor.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

Why would you trade for just the 8th overall pick if you have the 1st?

Millions of dollars. If the talent level is roughly equal, and this year it arguably is, why would you pay $20 Million more for a player that doesn't improve your team any more than a guy you could pay $20 million less for?I'm making the numbers up. I'm sure somewhere there's a chart showing what each pick got in salary and guaranteed money last year.Edit: Here we go... Using your example of the 1st and 8th pick.Jamarcus Russell - six-year $60 million with about $30 million guaranteed.Jamaal Anderson - five-year contract that can max out at $31 million. He will receive $15.361 million in guaranteesThat's $30 million worth of a lot of free agents that you can improve your team with rather than sinking it into one guy.

We're on the same page there and I would definitely want to have the 8th as opposed to the 1st if I'm the Dolphins, but they would have to get something else in return, even if it's minor.

Give me a 5th rounder just to keep the fans from barking.

 

[browntown]

Just b/c the new GM says what amounts to 'we'll listen to all offers for the top pick', doesn't mean he's actively shopping it.

Miami would be foolish to drop out of the top 4, since there's 4 franchise-type immediate impact prospects available. Dorsey, McFadden, and the Long's. They could use help in a lot of areas, but their cupboard isn't as bare as you'd think a 1-15 teams roster would be either. They need impact players more than they need quality depth.

Looking at the teams below them:

2) STL - Very unlikely to want to trade up, seeing as their needs can be filled with either Dorsey or Chris Long at 2.

3) ATL - Very unlikely to trade up, as they know they can get either QB Matt Ryan, or McFadden here.

4) OAK/KC - Oakland could make a case for needing any of the top 4 guys, so it's unlikely they'd move up if they ended up with the 4th pick. KC likely would most covet OT Jake Long, who to me is most likely to fall to the 4-5 range than the other 3.

The only way Miami trades that pick is with one of the above teams, which seems unlikely. Or if someone is willing to offer up a QB they can legitimately build around, without him having one foot out the door of the league (Warner, etc). I don't see any situations like that other than with Anderson in Cleveland.

 

[PranksterJD]

The Tunafins are in the same spot that the 49ers were in when they were "forced" to take Alex Smith.

Maybe someone with some better draft knowledge can help here. Please bear in mind this is a completely ridiculous situation that would never come up in reality....What would happen if the 'fins just didn't pick? If I remember correctly, you kinda "stay" on the clock if you go over your allotted time, so what if they just waited until 7 other teams had chosen and then stepped up? Would they still have to pay 1.01 money?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The Tunafins are in the same spot that the 49ers were in when they were "forced" to take Alex Smith.

Maybe someone with some better draft knowledge can help here. Please bear in mind this is a completely ridiculous situation that would never come up in reality....What would happen if the 'fins just didn't pick? If I remember correctly, you kinda "stay" on the clock if you go over your allotted time, so what if they just waited until 7 other teams had chosen and then stepped up? Would they still have to pay 1.01 money?

I would bet you'd have a war of epic proportions on your hands with the players agent if you waited until other picks had passed before you selected.It would be interesting, no doubt.

 

[cstu]

The Tunafins are in the same spot that the 49ers were in when they were "forced" to take Alex Smith.

Maybe someone with some better draft knowledge can help here. Please bear in mind this is a completely ridiculous situation that would never come up in reality....What would happen if the 'fins just didn't pick? If I remember correctly, you kinda "stay" on the clock if you go over your allotted time, so what if they just waited until 7 other teams had chosen and then stepped up? Would they still have to pay 1.01 money?

Ask the Vikings.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Nice analysis in this thread.I don't know how anyone can look at Parcells and think he is going to take Matt Ryan. You won't find anyone in Miami begging for a #1 overall QB - and everyone would be perfectly happy with either Long or Dorsey.It's nice mental masturbation here, but DolFans are ready for a non-sexy #1 overall, non-jersey selling, selection.Whether Huizenga sees it the same way, I don't know. But, Huizenga is the most hands OFF owner the NFL has ever seen.

Not sure what Parcells will or won't do. I do know that the very first coaching move he made was to lock up a QB coach. He also drafted a guy named Phil Sims and a guy named Drew Bledsoe so he's hasn't held his nose to the idea of drafting QBs with the first pick in the past and that QB coach move tends to show he's more concerned with his QB position than some may believe.But when the Dolphins pick in April the fans will be happy is they take anyone with the top pick because fans are, by and large, morons who have no earthly idea about the ramifications of the salary cap or that no matter who they select that player alone won't turn around that franchise. It will take more than the first pick and that means Ireland has the right idea. Trade out of the first pick and use that money to land a proven free agent to fill a glaring hole and use what he lands in a trade to fill in other holes or to help the development of top notch talent like Ted Ginn Jr. along.

 

[bostonfred]

The Tunafins are in the same spot that the 49ers were in when they were "forced" to take Alex Smith.

Maybe someone with some better draft knowledge can help here. Please bear in mind this is a completely ridiculous situation that would never come up in reality....What would happen if the 'fins just didn't pick? If I remember correctly, you kinda "stay" on the clock if you go over your allotted time, so what if they just waited until 7 other teams had chosen and then stepped up? Would they still have to pay 1.01 money?

lol

 

[Marc Levin]

Just b/c the new GM says what amounts to 'we'll listen to all offers for the top pick', doesn't mean he's actively shopping it.Miami would be foolish to drop out of the top 4, since there's 4 franchise-type immediate impact prospects available. Dorsey, McFadden, and the Long's. They could use help in a lot of areas, but their cupboard isn't as bare as you'd think a 1-15 teams roster would be either. They need impact players more than they need quality depth.Looking at the teams below them:2) STL - Very unlikely to want to trade up, seeing as their needs can be filled with either Dorsey or Chris Long at 2.3) ATL - Very unlikely to trade up, as they know they can get either QB Matt Ryan, or McFadden here.4) OAK/KC - Oakland could make a case for needing any of the top 4 guys, so it's unlikely they'd move up if they ended up with the 4th pick. KC likely would most covet OT Jake Long, who to me is most likely to fall to the 4-5 range than the other 3.The only way Miami trades that pick is with one of the above teams, which seems unlikely. Or if someone is willing to offer up a QB they can legitimately build around, without him having one foot out the door of the league (Warner, etc). I don't see any situations like that other than with Anderson in Cleveland.

I don't think you understand how a deal could get done here. Miami will be doing a sign and draft., not a draft and sign. And other teams fall in love with players and don't want to settle.That said, I really believe Miami holds that #1 spot and uses it on the player they like best from among Jake Long, Chris Long and Dorsey. They will NOT sign Ryan or McFadden simply because they have the #1. The other three players fit the team and Parcells' inclinations a hundred fold more than either skill player.I expect McFadden and Ryan to end up in Atlanta and Oakland. If KC gets the #4 and Atl already took Ryan, McFadden might fall to Oakland at #5 and DT Simey (??) ends up in KC.Now, there is an outside chance Parcells will take Mcfadden if he is simply blown away by the kid's character, but I don't think we are looking at AD/LT with Mcfadden and he is not a "gotta take him #1 overall" player.

 

[Marc Levin]

Nice analysis in this thread.I don't know how anyone can look at Parcells and think he is going to take Matt Ryan. You won't find anyone in Miami begging for a #1 overall QB - and everyone would be perfectly happy with either Long or Dorsey.It's nice mental masturbation here, but DolFans are ready for a non-sexy #1 overall, non-jersey selling, selection.Whether Huizenga sees it the same way, I don't know. But, Huizenga is the most hands OFF owner the NFL has ever seen.

Not sure what Parcells will or won't do. I do know that the very first coaching move he made was to lock up a QB coach. He also drafted a guy named Phil Sims and a guy named Drew Bledsoe so he's hasn't held his nose to the idea of drafting QBs with the first pick in the past and that QB coach move tends to show he's more concerned with his QB position than some may believe.But when the Dolphins pick in April the fans will be happy is they take anyone with the top pick because fans are, by and large, morons who have no earthly idea about the ramifications of the salary cap or that no matter who they select that player alone won't turn around that franchise. It will take more than the first pick and that means Ireland has the right idea. Trade out of the first pick and use that money to land a proven free agent to fill a glaring hole and use what he lands in a trade to fill in other holes or to help the development of top notch talent like Ted Ginn Jr. along.

If Parcells takes Matt Ryan, the kid will be in the Pro Bowl w/in 2 years. In Bill I trust.But, I do not see how he takes him - I watched a decent amount of Matt Ryan and the kid does not impress me at all - and I strongly doubt Parcells will think he is woirth the #1 overall pick this year.

 

[mchaps55]

Senior Bowl Writer from the sun-sentinal who is close to the situation in Miami. Some good info here. Everything I have been reading lately makes it sound like Dorsey will not e a dolphin but this puts a good spin on it.

Miami Dolphins Senior Bowl news and notes

The Dolphins have officially left Mobile. Jeff Ireland and crew have seen enough from the practice, and interviewed enough players (over 100). They believe they have a good feel for the talent and makeup of the players who are here, so home they went.

Most teams don't stick around for the game, considering they get every second of film from the practices and the game on their video systems from the NFL.

Things have been fast and frantic at the Senior Bowl, so I'm sorry for not checking in earlier. But I will get into what Ireland and crew have been doing, watching and saying. But first, some housekeeping.

The Dolphins coaching staff is nearly filled. Some of the hirings have become official, and others - like the expected hiring of former UCLA coach Karl Dorrell as WR coach, Jim Reid as linebackers coach, and Dan Henning as possibly offensive coordinator - have not (CLICK HERE FOR STORY).

We expect all three to be part of this veteran staff, which has a good mix of old, young, experienced, and inexperienced. I particularly like all the former head coaches on the staff. You can never have too many people who have experience in leadership positions.

A couple of critical spots are left, like tight ends coach, offensive quality control, and a couple other pieces on defense, like assistant secondary coach, and possibly a special teams coach. Steve Hoffman is still around, but he might be promoted to special teams coordinator. He also might get demoted, like linebacker coach George Edwards likely will, if he stays because former VMI head coach Jim Reid is supposedly set to coach that position. However, Reid also has experience coaching the defensive line, so that's a possibility.

Ireland addressed the media yesterday and revealed very little outside of the fact the Dolphins haven't decided on 3-4 or 4-3, and are VERY INTERESTED in trading the No. 1 pick (CLICK HERE). I'm sensing its not that they don't want the pick, or don't like the talent that's available. His "we're open for business" likely has a lot to do with the financial commitment involved, which gives me the impression they might have to take less than the trade value it warrants.

Ireland made it clear the Dolphins have PLENTY OF ROSTER issues, and like Tony Sparano, he didn't make any promises, and gave the impression that there will be a major roster overhaul. As expected, Ireland and company have been paying a lot of attention to the offensive and defensive linemen, linebackers, and quarterbacks. David Lee made the trip and has been studying all the quarterbacks mechanics (by the way, Kentucky's Andre Woodson has a major hitch in his throwing motion that scares a lot of people).

Ireland expressed disappointment that Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan decided not to play in the game. One scout told me his willingness to compete likely eliminated any chance he had of being the top players selected. That's what the Senior Bowl is all about, competing. It's one fourth of the evaluating process for top picks. We'll see if Ryan participates in the combine drills. If he doesn't don't be surprised if his stock drops.

The Dolphins have had extensive talks with two quarterbacks in particular: Delaware's Joe Flacco and USC's John David Booty, who have both been very impressive.

I'm told by people in the know that Flacco is the best QB competing, and I can't argue against it. The other players who have really stood out in practices are Cal WR Lavelle Hawkins, USC linebacker Keith Rivers, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (a personal favorite of mine, and the cousin of the former FSU standout), TE Brad Cottam, FSU DL Andre Fluellen (quick first step, but won't fit what the Dolphins will likely play), and Vanderbilt OL Chris Williams (who is rising up the charts fast).

I personally like Boston College OL Gosder Cherilus, who is physical and big (6-7, 313), so he fits the Bill Parcells mold, and Alabama DE/LB Wallace Gilberry, who I'm told would be perfect as a pass rushing linebacker in a 3-4 system.

Gilberry trains with LSU's Glenn Dorsey and he said the Dolphins have been investigating Dorsey like crazy, looking into his background and injury history. He also said Dorsey's first step is unbelievable and he's tremendously strong.

That could give some people an indication where the Dolphins are leaning, but I expect the Dolphins to do an extensive study on all five of players believed worthy of the No. 1 spot.

Before I go, check out Ethan Skolnick's column about the triangle of power (CLICK HERE) and pay close attention to Matt Millen's take on the Dolphins hopes of moving the No. 1 pick. Millen knows how hard Ireland's challenge will be because he's tried and failed to move Detroit's top selection for numerous years.

“To make that move you would have to be convinced as a staff that it’s the right guy to move up in the draft to get. If you are going to move up at the top like that it had to be a guy to complete the puzzle," Millen said. "Usually, teams up that high need plenty of pieces to their puzzle.”

 

[Marc Levin]

This thread rocks. Great info, guys.

 

[Texasmouth]

Flacco to the Dolphins at 2.01. I would bet on it unless he performs so well at the combine that his stock shoots him into the first round.

This kid is the real deal. I watched a lot of him during the practices and he is an absolute stud. It doesnt hurt that he is 6'6", especially with all the comparisons to Derek Anderson.

 

[Marc Levin]

Flacco to the Dolphins at 2.01. I would bet on it unless he performs so well at the combine that his stock shoots him into the first round. This kid is the real deal. I watched a lot of him during the practices and he is an absolute stud. It doesnt hurt that he is 6'6", especially with all the comparisons to Derek Anderson.

What about Braum (sp?)I am not sold on them choosing a QB this year, though I see it happening at the top of the 2nd way more likely than the #1 overall - and especially not for Matt Ryan.

 

[Rooster]

Am I right in thinking that only teams holding the number 1 pick can negotiate contracts with players? How long before someone uses a Billy Beane moneyball-type strategy and offers, say, Jeff Otah (or someone else expected to go after pick 10) the opportunity to be the #1 overall pick if he'll sign a contract for #10 pick-type money. It seems like a win-win for players and teams, only agents would be upset because their job is pretty easy right now looking at last year's draft and getting a small increase based on pick number and this model would require a real negotiation.

 

[G3-175SE]

I would think since they have so many holes that they will trade down. The problem may be that to do so they would have to trade down to the lower end of the first round. I don't think they want to go that low. I am sure they want additional picks but if they can't still get a high pick I don't think they will trade down.

 

[massraider]

I think the bust rate of top ten drafted DTs has been overlooked.

I think the bust rate for DT is probably right in line with WR, and QB. Offensive line probably has the best rate, and I don't see an clamor for the Dolphins to take Jake Long. Looking at the bust rates for DT isn't very helpful unless you are showing bust rates for other positions. Your list of WRs actually looks just as bad as the list of DTs.Regarding trading the pick, I think if a trade happens, and I doubt it will, that this'll be the first time the draft chart is completely thrown out the window. Tuna can make a trade for less that "draft chart" value, and is secure enough to handle any criticism.Not that he'd get any. After a couple of snarky comments, he'd have them writing articles about what a brilliant move it was.

 

[Abraham]

Offensive line probably has the best rate

I'd bet on DB. Problem is getting a DB to grade out that high. But when they do...DBs in the top-10 in the last 8 years:1998 - Charles Woodson, Duane Starks1999 - Champ Bailey2000 - None2001 - None2002 - Quintin Jammer, Roy Williams2003 - Terrance Newman (Marcus Trufant went just outside the top 10 at #11)2004 - Sean Taylor, Deangelo Hall, Dunta Robinson2005 - PacMan Jones, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers2006 - Michael Huff, Donte WHitner2007 - Laron Landry

 

[Marc Levin]

Am I right in thinking that only teams holding the number 1 pick can negotiate contracts with players? How long before someone uses a Billy Beane moneyball-type strategy and offers, say, Jeff Otah (or someone else expected to go after pick 10) the opportunity to be the #1 overall pick if he'll sign a contract for #10 pick-type money. It seems like a win-win for players and teams, only agents would be upset because their job is pretty easy right now looking at last year's draft and getting a small increase based on pick number and this model would require a real negotiation.

Good thought - however, I think all rookie contracts have to pass league and union mustard. And I would expect the union to go balistic.That said, I like the idea.

 

[Abraham]

Am I right in thinking that only teams holding the number 1 pick can negotiate contracts with players? How long before someone uses a Billy Beane moneyball-type strategy and offers, say, Jeff Otah (or someone else expected to go after pick 10) the opportunity to be the #1 overall pick if he'll sign a contract for #10 pick-type money. It seems like a win-win for players and teams, only agents would be upset because their job is pretty easy right now looking at last year's draft and getting a small increase based on pick number and this model would require a real negotiation.

Good thought - however, I think all rookie contracts have to pass league and union mustard. And I would expect the union to go balistic.That said, I like the idea.

This is generally thought of as one of the reasons Mario Williams went 1st over Reggie Bush. Also, there is a story that Aaron Rodgers's agent offered for Rodgers to take 80% of what had been negotiated with Alex Smith to be the #1 pick, but the 49ers didn't have him rated highly enough to consider it.

 

[Marc Levin]

I don't see an clamor for the Dolphins to take Jake Long.

Ahem, I think Parcells will go DL, and, therefore, Chris Long or Dorsey, but *I* want the phins to take Jake Long #1 overall.

 

[Marc Levin]

Offensive line probably has the best rate

I'd bet on DB. Problem is getting a DB to grade out that high. But when they do...DBs in the top-10 in the last 8 years:1998 - Charles Woodson, Duane Starks1999 - Champ Bailey2000 - None2001 - None2002 - Quintin Jammer, Roy Williams2003 - Terrance Newman (Marcus Trufant went just outside the top 10 at #11)2004 - Sean Taylor, Deangelo Hall, Dunta Robinson2005 - PacMan Jones, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers2006 - Michael Huff, Donte WHitner2007 - Laron Landry

FWIW, Mike Mayock, on the path to the draft, said he believes McKelvin will ultimately be a top-10- pick this year. I usually trust his opinions and, IIRC, he is the one who predicted correctly that Rogers would drop like a stone to the Packers.

 

[Abraham]

FWIW, Mike Mayock, on the path to the draft, said he believes McKelvin will ultimately be a top-10- pick this year. I usually trust his opinions and, IIRC, he is the one who predicted correctly that Rogers would drop like a stone to the Packers.

I have a hard time believing McKelvin and Aqib Talib are both going top-20, especially if that means jumping over Jenkins and Phillips. It could happen, I suppose.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

FWIW, Mike Mayock, on the path to the draft, said he believes McKelvin will ultimately be a top-10- pick this year. I usually trust his opinions and, IIRC, he is the one who predicted correctly that Rogers would drop like a stone to the Packers.

I have a hard time believing McKelvin and Aqib Talib are both going top-20, especially if that means jumping over Jenkins and Phillips. It could happen, I suppose.

There are a lot of good corners that are going to go in the first round and a half.1. McKelvin2. Jenkins3. Cason4. Talib5. Porter6. Rodgers-CromartieI'm betting that Phillips and Reggie Smith are also gone in the first 50 picks, but will play as safeties.

 

[Abraham]

FWIW, Mike Mayock, on the path to the draft, said he believes McKelvin will ultimately be a top-10- pick this year. I usually trust his opinions and, IIRC, he is the one who predicted correctly that Rogers would drop like a stone to the Packers.

I have a hard time believing McKelvin and Aqib Talib are both going top-20, especially if that means jumping over Jenkins and Phillips. It could happen, I suppose.

There are a lot of good corners that are going to go in the first round and a half.1. McKelvin2. Jenkins3. Cason4. Talib5. Porter6. Rodgers-CromartieI'm betting that Phillips and Reggie Smith are also gone in the first 50 picks, but will play as safeties.

Uh, yeah. If Kenny Phillips makes it past Washington (and that's only if he makes it past NO), I'll be floored.

 

[Marc Levin]

FWIW, Mike Mayock, on the path to the draft, said he believes McKelvin will ultimately be a top-10- pick this year. I usually trust his opinions and, IIRC, he is the one who predicted correctly that Rogers would drop like a stone to the Packers.

I have a hard time believing McKelvin and Aqib Talib are both going top-20, especially if that means jumping over Jenkins and Phillips. It could happen, I suppose.

Does he think Talib is going in the top-20?His list on the show I saw had Talib as the #5 CB. What he also said is that he is just as impressed with #6 through #10 as he is with the top-5, and that this is the deepest class of CBs he's seen in a long time (ever?)

 

[SwampDawg]

Crazy idea but remember a few years ago when the Vikings missed their pick and then were able to jump in whenever they wanted and make it. Say Miami (or any other team for that matter) had 4 guys all rated the same all at positions of need when their pick came up. Could they simply let the pick slide by for a few picks then jump in and take the guys remaining ? Say that guy was now the 4th player picked, would they still have to give him #1 pick money or would they be able to pay less ? I know it won't happen but an interesting thought.

 

[Rooster]

Am I right in thinking that only teams holding the number 1 pick can negotiate contracts with players? How long before someone uses a Billy Beane moneyball-type strategy and offers, say, Jeff Otah (or someone else expected to go after pick 10) the opportunity to be the #1 overall pick if he'll sign a contract for #10 pick-type money. It seems like a win-win for players and teams, only agents would be upset because their job is pretty easy right now looking at last year's draft and getting a small increase based on pick number and this model would require a real negotiation.

Good thought - however, I think all rookie contracts have to pass league and union mustard. And I would expect the union to go balistic.That said, I like the idea.

This is generally thought of as one of the reasons Mario Williams went 1st over Reggie Bush. Also, there is a story that Aaron Rodgers's agent offered for Rodgers to take 80% of what had been negotiated with Alex Smith to be the #1 pick, but the 49ers didn't have him rated highly enough to consider it.

Same principle, but my example takes it a bit further. Rodgers (even though he slipped) and Williams were legitimate candidates for the #1 overall pick at the time. I see the 49ers and Texans as trying to negotiate a slightly better deal between relatively equal #1 candidates, but I see my example as a team saying "You know what, I'd rather have the 2nd or 3rd best OT prospect at 1/2 the price than the top guy at a price that could cripple me if I'm wrong." Is there anything in the union contract that dictates that the #1 pick must get more than the #2 pick or that the #1 pick this year must get more than the #1 pick last year that the union could gripe about? I thought it just kind of evolved that way on it's own and was an unwritten sort of rule. If the league agreed to get those rules in writing, I guess they shot themselves in the foot. Someone doing this might be the stimulus needed for the NFL to rework the payment system for draft picks.