Dolphins shopping first pick in draft (1 Viewer)

[Liquid Tension]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

This is why the way the NFL is running the draft and the amount of money kids who have never played in the NFL are getting is bad for the sport.This is also why I have said for years that I would rather have many 2nd round picks than firsts. The NFL really needs to cap the cost of picks...

 

[bosoxs45]

Nice analysis in this thread.

I don't know how anyone can look at Parcells and think he is going to take Matt Ryan. You won't find anyone in Miami begging for a #1 overall QB - and everyone would be perfectly happy with either Long or Dorsey.

It's nice mental masturbation here, but DolFans are ready for a non-sexy #1 overall, non-jersey selling, selection.

Whether Huizenga sees it the same way, I don't know. But, Huizenga is the most hands OFF owner the NFL has ever seen.

Not sure what Parcells will or won't do. I do know that the very first coaching move he made was to lock up a QB coach. He also drafted a guy named Phil Sims and a guy named Drew Bledsoe so he's hasn't held his nose to the idea of drafting QBs with the first pick in the past and that QB coach move tends to show he's more concerned with his QB position than some may believe.But when the Dolphins pick in April the fans will be happy is they take anyone with the top pick because fans are, by and large, morons who have no earthly idea about the ramifications of the salary cap or that no matter who they select that player alone won't turn around that franchise. It will take more than the first pick and that means Ireland has the right idea. Trade out of the first pick and use that money to land a proven free agent to fill a glaring hole and use what he lands in a trade to fill in other holes or to help the development of top notch talent like Ted Ginn Jr. along.

If Parcells takes Matt Ryan, the kid will be in the Pro Bowl w/in 2 years. In Bill I trust.But, I do not see how he takes him - I watched a decent amount of Matt Ryan and the kid does not impress me at all - and I strongly doubt Parcells will think he is woirth the #1 overall pick this year.

Can you blame Matt Ryan for having an above average cast of wide receivers? I think not.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I think the bust rate of top ten drafted DTs has been overlooked.

I think the bust rate for DT is probably right in line with WR, and QB. Offensive line probably has the best rate, and I don't see an clamor for the Dolphins to take Jake Long. Looking at the bust rates for DT isn't very helpful unless you are showing bust rates for other positions. Your list of WRs actually looks just as bad as the list of DTs.Regarding trading the pick, I think if a trade happens, and I doubt it will, that this'll be the first time the draft chart is completely thrown out the window. Tuna can make a trade for less that "draft chart" value, and is secure enough to handle any criticism.

Not that he'd get any. After a couple of snarky comments, he'd have them writing articles about what a brilliant move it was.

Draft hit rates of different positions.Excellent rundown by football outsiders from a few years back that broke down the draft. Very lengthy with charts that won't copy so go to the link but here are some stats to ponder from their findings.

They breakd down offense/defense and then individual positions by round based on percent who stuck with teams that drafted them and have free agent stats as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/04/1...nfl-draft/5088/

Slightly more offensive players that are drafted stick with the teams that drafted them.

Offensive players

- Percentage with the team that drafted them: 55%

- Percentage of Undrafted Free Agents (or 8+): 16%

Defensive players

- Percentage with the team that drafted them: 53%

- Percentage of Undrafted Free Agents (or 8+): 16%

Here is some of the dialogue that describes the charts of the raw numbers shown above. Go to the link to see the charts and read the entire story.

...The blue bars represent the percentage of league wide starters drafted in that round. The red bars represent the percentage of league wide starters drafted in that round that are still with the team that drafted them.

Both bars show a steady decline in the probability of players drafted in each subsequent round becoming starters, but with a somewhat unexpected rise between the sixth and seventh rounds. This is likely skewed by the fact that the NFL awards a lot of compensatory picks in the seventh round, so there are a few more seventh-rounders floating around than sixth-rounders. However, that shouldn’t be enough to cause an increase, so we can probably presume that there is little to no talent drop off between the sixth and seventh rounds. One might also presume that this trend continues past those players selected in round seven, which would mean that there is very little difference between sixth and seventh round picks and “priority��? undrafted free agents. In other words, don’t get excited when your teams lands a sixth round pick in a trade, it is only a small upgrade over signing a guy that went undrafted.

Another point of note is that the drop off between round one and round two is significantly larger than that in any other round. ...

More.

Top Heavy

“Top Heavy? are those positions which are almost entirely addressed in the early portion of the draft, mostly via the first round. The inference is that these are positions that need to be addressed very early in the draft. This group includes quarterback, running back, #1 wide receiver, defensive tackle, and offensive tackle.

Essentially what we see encompassed here are high-profile skill position players (QB, RB, and WR) and guys with exceptional athletic ability for their size (DT, OT). These are the types of players that are hard to miss when evaluating talent. Even a small college skill position player who puts up eye-popping statistics will grab the attention of scouts, so exceptional skill position players will rarely get overlooked. Those that do slide will 1) have durability (or “character?) issues that have kept them off the field, 2) be somewhat raw in terms of technique, or 3) have been misfit to their college offensive system. Meanwhile, the “Planet Theory? guys that you’ll find excelling at offensive and defensive tackle are also going to make extra large blips on scouts’ radar screens. (The Planet Theory is Bill Parcells’ philosophy that there are so few men both large enough and athletic enough to be NFL linemen that they are intrinsically valuable.) They may not have impressive statistics to shed light on their talents, but their “measurables? will make them very hard to miss.

The quarterback position is especially top heavy. Exactly half of the starting QBs in the NFL (when this data was collected) were drafted in the first round. ...

... The QB position is by far the toughest to fill, and most teams are (and should be) willing to fill it by any means necessary. First round QBs are no sure thing, but anyone picked after the first round appears to be a very long shot that will require several years of development. And even those late round guys that do work out will probably have to move to a new team to be successful. The bottom line here is that until you’ve found your guy you should jump at any opportunity to acquire a quality starter, be it early in the draft, late in the draft, via trade, or through free agency. Don’t pass on a QB early in the draft because you also like a guy that could be had later. If you are really in need of a QB you should probably draft them both...

QBs- Percentage with the team that drafted them: 53%- Percentage of Undrafted Free Agents (or 8+): 16%

Frist round, 50% hit rate

RBs

- Percentage with the team that drafted them: 66%

- Percentage of Undrafted Free Agents (or 8+): 6%

First round, less than 45%

WRs

- Percentage with the team that drafted them: 58%

- Percentage of Undrafted Free Agents (or 8+): 14%

First round, approx 45%

DT

- Percentage with the team that drafted them: 42%

- Percentage of Undrafted Free Agents (or 8+): 19%

First round hit rate, aprrox 38%

OT

- Percentage with the team that drafted them: 66%

- Percentage of Undrafted Free Agents (or 8+): 8%

First round hit rate, approx 41%

Comptuer locking up. I'll finish posting more on this in a few........

 

[GregR_2]

...Is there anything in the union contract that dictates that the #1 pick must get more than the #2 pick or that the #1 pick this year must get more than the #1 pick last year that the union could gripe about? I thought it just kind of evolved that way on it's own and was an unwritten sort of rule. If the league agreed to get those rules in writing, I guess they shot themselves in the foot. Someone doing this might be the stimulus needed for the NFL to rework the payment system for draft picks.

Nope. Sometimes players get more money than the player ahead of them. Some positions just get paid more than others.Also, the rookie salary allotment is a MAXIMUM, not a minimum. The only minimum for rookie salaries is the league minimum. They could sign the #1 overall pick to a minimum contract if they could get the player to do it.

 

[G3-175SE]

Unfortunately for the NFL teams have increased the amount paid to the players drafted to where it doesn't make sense anymore. Year after year they pay for potential and get crap. Unfortunately if they tried to control those salaries two things would happen. The players union would sue and the new players would not sign. Both are things that the teams don't want to happen. I wish they would try, then they could pay for talent not potential.

 

[Duke1948]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

This is why the way the NFL is running the draft and the amount of money kids who have never played in the NFL are getting is bad for the sport.This is also why I have said for years that I would rather have many 2nd round picks than firsts. The NFL really needs to cap the cost of picks...

100% in agreement, not saying that they are in the same boat but wasn't that what just about cost the NBA to go bankrupt?

 

[Liquid Tension]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

This is why the way the NFL is running the draft and the amount of money kids who have never played in the NFL are getting is bad for the sport.This is also why I have said for years that I would rather have many 2nd round picks than firsts. The NFL really needs to cap the cost of picks...

100% in agreement, not saying that they are in the same boat but wasn't that what just about cost the NBA to go bankrupt?

I am not sure, but when a team would rather have the 10th pick instead of the 5th pick there is someting wrong. The idea of the draft is to help the worse teams and not burden them

 

[Chadstroma]

I bet they wouldn't be able to trade the pick straight up with any team in the top 10.

This is why the way the NFL is running the draft and the amount of money kids who have never played in the NFL are getting is bad for the sport.This is also why I have said for years that I would rather have many 2nd round picks than firsts. The NFL really needs to cap the cost of picks...

100% in agreement, not saying that they are in the same boat but wasn't that what just about cost the NBA to go bankrupt?

I am not sure, but when a team would rather have the 10th pick instead of the 5th pick there is someting wrong. The idea of the draft is to help the worse teams and not burden them

It is stupid how much money these top picks are getting and never playing a down in the NFL. What can you do though?