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Domanick Davis (1 Viewer)

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MelvinTScupper

Guest
I've seen some guys who have him very high, and then guys like Otis have him at #20.If all he does is repeat last year, he's top 10 again. Not like he had a ton of carries either, with only 301 (20 per game). Houston uses him as a safety valve A TON, and he only trailed LT2 and Brian Westbrook in receptions. I see his TD's spread a little more evenly this year, but don't see a reason to think it will change dramatically.I think he's top 10, with this stat line:15 games-298carries-1,168 yards-3.92YPC-13rushTD-62rec-522yards-3RecTDs-265 points

 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Otis is prejudiced (and foolish).Any back who is used for 300 carries and nearly 70 receptions is going to be an integral part of the team's upcoming season and won't lose his job to "performance" ater scoring 14 total TDs.Maybe top-10 is too high (I think so), but RB20, unless you are in the habit of predicting significant time lost to injury, is much more stupid.I have him right at RB11 or 12 and would not hesitate to pair him with another strong back from that range - like Dillon, KJones, Tiki, CuMar, Rudi, etc - to open my draft. I will dance a jig if I am drafting in the mid-late second and Davis falls that far.

 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
p.s. - identical rushing TDs as 2004?? and 3 rec. TDs?? Those are way too high in 15 games.

 
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MelvinTScupper

Guest
p.s. - identical rushing TDs as 2004??  and 3 rec. TDs??  Those are way too high in 15 games.
I don't think 3 receiving TD's is too high for a RB who catches 60-70 passes. Westbrook had 7, and LT2 had 4. I have messed around with lowering his rushing TDs, though. Even if I go to a 12-2 number, he's still #9.

 
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Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
p.s. - identical rushing TDs as 2004??  and 3 rec. TDs??  Those are way too high in 15 games.
I don't think 3 receiving TD's is too high for a RB who catches 60-70 passes. Westbrook had 7, and LT2 had 4. I have messed around with lowering his rushing TDs, though. Even if I go to a 12-2 number, he's still #9.
yes - it is - and your numbers are wrong.Westbrook had 6 last year - and that is VERY unusual.

LT2 had 1 last year, 4 in the year he had 100(!!) catches - that same year, Priest had nearly 80 catches and NO TDs. Tiki Barber, Mr. take the swing pass to the green extraoprdinaire - has a single seaons career TD best of 3 - back in 1998 - and no more than 2 any year since. Warrick Dunn - also a pass ctachiing machine and liable to go house any play - has a single seaons best TD receptions of 3.

In 68 catches last year, DD had only one TD.

We tend to think that backs who catch the ball will score correlating receiving TDs - it simply doesn't happen. It is EXTREMELY rare for a RB to catch more than 3 TDs in a year, regardless of number of receptions - seriously, Scupper, go run Drinen'sdata and history dominator's while they are free.

Def. do so before quoting incorrect figures from last year.

 
Otis is prejudiced (and foolish).

Any back who is used for 300 carries and nearly 70 receptions is going to be an integral part of the team's upcoming season and won't lose his job to "performance" ater scoring 14 total TDs.
He WILL lose his job to performance if it's 2nd and 8 everytime they hand the ball off to him on 1st down. Thing is, there's no one on the roster that can replace him right now.
 
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MelvinTScupper

Guest
p.s. - identical rushing TDs as 2004??  and 3 rec. TDs??  Those are way too high in 15 games.
I don't think 3 receiving TD's is too high for a RB who catches 60-70 passes. Westbrook had 7, and LT2 had 4. I have messed around with lowering his rushing TDs, though. Even if I go to a 12-2 number, he's still #9.
yes - it is - and your numbers are wrong.Westbrook had 6 last year - and that is VERY unusual.

LT2 had 1 last year, 4 in the year he had 100(!!) catches - that same year, Priest had nearly 80 catches and NO TDs. Tiki Barber, Mr. take the swing pass to the green extraoprdinaire - has a single seaons career TD best of 3 - back in 1998 - and no more than 2 any year since. Warrick Dunn - also a pass ctachiing machine and liable to go house any play - has a single seaons best TD receptions of 3.

In 68 catches last year, DD had only one TD.

We tend to think that backs who catch the ball will score correlating receiving TDs - it simply doesn't happen. It is EXTREMELY rare for a RB to catch more than 3 TDs in a year, regardless of number of receptions - seriously, Scupper, go run Drinen'sdata and history dominator's while they are free.

Def. do so before quoting incorrect figures from last year.
yep I guess I clipped the LT td stat from '03. Don't know why my Westbrook number was off by 1.In any case, I cut and paste most stats off ESPN. It's not like I can go back and check week to week data. Sometimes you have to take it at face value.

Thanks for the scolding though.

 

RustyFA

Footballguy
My opinion is that Morency drafted in the third round is going to really hurt DD. I forsee VM getting the goalline carries making DD into a 4 TD rushing RB. I also think that VM is going to take 75-150 carries away from DD making him a borderline RB2. I still think that Davis is going to be the third down back and should have a ton of catches. Davis becomes Bryant Westrook. 900 yards rushing 60 catches. 6 total TDs. A 3rd round pick in my book.

 

Chitown Mole

Footballguy
My opinion is that Morency drafted in the third round is going to really hurt DD. I forsee VM getting the goalline carries making DD into a 4 TD rushing RB. I also think that VM is going to take 75-150 carries away from DD making him a borderline RB2. I still think that Davis is going to be the third down back and should have a ton of catches. Davis becomes Bryant Westrook. 900 yards rushing 60 catches. 6 total TDs. A 3rd round pick in my book.
My thoughts on this are close to yours on Davis. Dom's fatal flaw is he just doesn't run well when nicked up. Some backs can still come out and bang away, but Davis is useless when he is nicked up. He got hit hard a few times early in the year and coughed up the ball a few times, got nicked up, and it took him till week 11 last year to get his first 12+ yard run. He is going to share his touches this next year, and eventually fall into his natural role as a 3rd down back at some point during the season. I’m sure he will miss some time as he projects to do and it will never be the same when he gets back.
 

Your Mom

Footballguy
When is this going to stop? When houston gets to the goaline, they RUN RUN RUN. DD does a very very good job inside the 5. He has been a stud for 2 years now and he is not going to get lose carries to Morency (sp). Keep letting DD fall farther and farther in the draft. I'll take him every single time in the 2nd round.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Davis is one of those players that I just don't like. I think his stats and numbers are much better than his actual talent. At the same time, I'm not very high on Morency, so I could certainly see DD retaining his workhorse role. That would probably mean top 15 numbers.

 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Davis is one of those players that I just don't like. I think his stats and numbers are much better than his actual talent.
I don;t get this - I have watched maybe 5 or 6 Texans' games the last two years and when I see DD run, I see a guy that runs through tackles, falls forward, has amazing balance, and instinctive vision - automatically hits the hole hard without thinking.Yeah, he's no Faulk or Priest in the open field - those guys are drafted first round as incredible one-of-a kind talents (Edit: i realize priest was an undrafted FA) - but Dom has what Terrel Davis and Emmitt Smith had - football talent. Which is infinitely more important than looking like Barry Sanders.
 
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gman8343

What would Lemmy do?
DD is getting to be like Tiki Barber, every year people are predicting his doom and yet he comes out and performs (although Davis only did it for one year so far). I don't think Davis is in danger of losing his job, the only thing that could hold him back IMO is health.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Davis is one of those players that I just don't like. I think his stats and numbers are much better than his actual talent.
I don;t get this - I have watched maybe 5 or 6 Texans' games the last two years and when I see DD run, I see a guy that runs through tackles, falls forward, has amazing balance, and instinctive vision - automatically hits the hole hard without thinking.Yeah, he's no Faulk or Priest in the open field - those guys are drafted first round as incredible one-of-a kind talents (Edit: i realize priest was an undrafted FA) - but Dom has what Terrel Davis and Emmitt Smith had - football talent. Which is infinitely more important than looking like Barry Sanders.
Statistically he was practically equivalent to Thomas Jones last year. The only major difference is that Dom got a lot more touches and had more TDs. I'm not comfortable with that if I'm banking on the guy to anchor my team. He's made the most of my opportunities, but he doesn't strike me as a guy who's good enough to hold down a job.That said, I recognize that he dealt with some injuries last year. It's possible that they hindered his performance, but I'm still somewhat skeptical. I view Davis as a decent player who puts up great stats due to a huge number of touches. My concern is that those touches aren't likely to last.

 

joffer

Footballguy
Davis is one of those players that I just don't like. I think his stats and numbers are much better than his actual talent.
I don;t get this - I have watched maybe 5 or 6 Texans' games the last two years and when I see DD run, I see a guy that runs through tackles, falls forward, has amazing balance, and instinctive vision - automatically hits the hole hard without thinking.Yeah, he's no Faulk or Priest in the open field - those guys are drafted first round as incredible one-of-a kind talents (Edit: i realize priest was an undrafted FA) - but Dom has what Terrel Davis and Emmitt Smith had - football talent. Which is infinitely more important than looking like Barry Sanders.
Statistically he was practically equivalent to Thomas Jones last year. The only major difference is that Dom got a lot more touches and had more TDs.
well, if that's all....
 

EBF

Footballguy
Davis is one of those players that I just don't like. I think his stats and numbers are much better than his actual talent.
I don;t get this - I have watched maybe 5 or 6 Texans' games the last two years and when I see DD run, I see a guy that runs through tackles, falls forward, has amazing balance, and instinctive vision - automatically hits the hole hard without thinking.Yeah, he's no Faulk or Priest in the open field - those guys are drafted first round as incredible one-of-a kind talents (Edit: i realize priest was an undrafted FA) - but Dom has what Terrel Davis and Emmitt Smith had - football talent. Which is infinitely more important than looking like Barry Sanders.
Statistically he was practically equivalent to Thomas Jones last year. The only major difference is that Dom got a lot more touches and had more TDs.
well, if that's all....
What's your point? A RB has no control over the amount of touches he gets. Also, I would venture to guess that DD's superior TD count had something to do with a much greater number of red zone touches.I made that comparison in order to show that Domanick Davis appears to be an average back who excels due to an immense workload.

 

joffer

Footballguy
Davis is one of those players that I just don't like. I think his stats and numbers are much better than his actual talent.
I don;t get this - I have watched maybe 5 or 6 Texans' games the last two years and when I see DD run, I see a guy that runs through tackles, falls forward, has amazing balance, and instinctive vision - automatically hits the hole hard without thinking.Yeah, he's no Faulk or Priest in the open field - those guys are drafted first round as incredible one-of-a kind talents (Edit: i realize priest was an undrafted FA) - but Dom has what Terrel Davis and Emmitt Smith had - football talent. Which is infinitely more important than looking like Barry Sanders.
Statistically he was practically equivalent to Thomas Jones last year. The only major difference is that Dom got a lot more touches and had more TDs.
well, if that's all....
What's your point? A RB has no control over the amount of touches he gets. Also, I would venture to guess that DD's superior TD count had something to do with a much greater number of red zone touches.I made that comparison in order to show that Domanick Davis appears to be an average back who excels due to an immense workload.
my point is, we're talking about fantasy value here, it seems like TDs and number of touches is more important than how "good" you might think he is.when you see he's statistically equivalent to Thomas Jones, are you referring to YPC?

 

EBF

Footballguy
my point is, we're talking about fantasy value here, it seems like TDs and number of touches is more important than how "good" you might think he is.
How "good" a player is has a major effect on whether or not he stays in the lineup. NFL teams don't stick with mediocrity forever.
when you see he's statistically equivalent to Thomas Jones, are you referring to YPC?
Yes (waiting for Tomlinson mention).
 
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MelvinTScupper

Guest
this is a guy who's putting up these numbers behind a line that allowed a league high number of sacks, what, 2 years ago?I'm not afraid of him being a great back, he's already there. I'm wondering if he can put up the TD numbers again. He had them all bunched in the second half last year.

 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Davis is one of those players that I just don't like. I think his stats and numbers are much better than his actual talent.
I don;t get this - I have watched maybe 5 or 6 Texans' games the last two years and when I see DD run, I see a guy that runs through tackles, falls forward, has amazing balance, and instinctive vision - automatically hits the hole hard without thinking.Yeah, he's no Faulk or Priest in the open field - those guys are drafted first round as incredible one-of-a kind talents (Edit: i realize priest was an undrafted FA) - but Dom has what Terrel Davis and Emmitt Smith had - football talent. Which is infinitely more important than looking like Barry Sanders.
Statistically he was practically equivalent to Thomas Jones last year. The only major difference is that Dom got a lot more touches and had more TDs. I'm not comfortable with that if I'm banking on the guy to anchor my team. He's made the most of my opportunities, but he doesn't strike me as a guy who's good enough to hold down a job.That said, I recognize that he dealt with some injuries last year. It's possible that they hindered his performance, but I'm still somewhat skeptical. I view Davis as a decent player who puts up great stats due to a huge number of touches. My concern is that those touches aren't likely to last.
???? Equivelant to TJones? Not even close. Since this is a feast or famine fantasy thread, TJones averaged 12.82 standard FF points/game DD averaged 17.44 The ONLY statistical similarity between the players is that they both averaged 3.9 YPC.First, you say he is not as good talent-wise as his stats indicate, then you defend your position by comparing stats between players??? Makes no sense.

Second, huge number of touches?? You are simply wrong that he had an inordinate number of touches. He had 301 carries and 69 rec. - 370 touches. Compare to SA's 373 touches, Barber's 374, LT's 392, CuMar's 412, Edge's 385, Dillon;s 360, and Rudi Johnson's 377 and that silly argument you just made about touches could be made about any of those backs - all except Dillon touched the ball more than Davis.

Third, you should expect similar workload numbers on 2005 - not less. Davis' high number of catches should be expected to CONTINUE - not decrease - he got only only one TD off of receiving catches, and if he plays 14-16 games, he is highly likely to run the ball 275-325 times again, given Dom Capers' devotion to the running game.

Fantasy wise, Dom Davis is absolute feast due to his combined yardage numbers and the fact that he plays for a coach who will run the ball 450 times a year, and is perfectly comfortable targetting Davis out of the backfield - Davis had 87 targets - three shy of Westbrook's league leading number - and he caught 69 of them for an incredibly high 79.3% completion rate - that's LT, Westbrook, Edge, CuMar reception completion range - even typical pass catching backs like Tiki, Priest and Dunn weren't as effective catching the ball as Dom Davis.

You want to talk stats, EBF, and you will lose this one by a landslide - the only one NOT working in Davis' favor is his YPC of 3.9.

That was way more the OL's fault than Davis' - the team switched in 2004 to a new zone blocking scheme - the team rushed 480 times in 2004 with a team 3.9 YPC. Funny that DD would have the exact same average handling only 62.2% of the team's rushing carries. Watch the team's, and DD's, YPC average shoot up this year to the 4.5 range as the OL is more comfortable with the scheme and Capers has added some good pieces to the OL.

Everyone avoid DD for these silly and indefensible prejudices - please - I beg you - I could use having him fall to me in the 2nd round.

 
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MelvinTScupper

Guest
Davis is one of those players that I just don't like. I think his stats and numbers are much better than his actual talent.
I don;t get this - I have watched maybe 5 or 6 Texans' games the last two years and when I see DD run, I see a guy that runs through tackles, falls forward, has amazing balance, and instinctive vision - automatically hits the hole hard without thinking.Yeah, he's no Faulk or Priest in the open field - those guys are drafted first round as incredible one-of-a kind talents (Edit: i realize priest was an undrafted FA) - but Dom has what Terrel Davis and Emmitt Smith had - football talent. Which is infinitely more important than looking like Barry Sanders.
Statistically he was practically equivalent to Thomas Jones last year. The only major difference is that Dom got a lot more touches and had more TDs. I'm not comfortable with that if I'm banking on the guy to anchor my team. He's made the most of my opportunities, but he doesn't strike me as a guy who's good enough to hold down a job.That said, I recognize that he dealt with some injuries last year. It's possible that they hindered his performance, but I'm still somewhat skeptical. I view Davis as a decent player who puts up great stats due to a huge number of touches. My concern is that those touches aren't likely to last.
???? Equivelant to TJones? Not even close. Since this is a feast or famine fantasy thread, TJones averaged 12.82 standard FF points/game DD averaged 17.44 The ONLY statistical similarity between the players is that they both averaged 3.9 YPC.First, you say he is not as good talent-wise as his stats indicate, then you defend your position by comparing stats between players??? Makes no sense.

Second, huge number of touches?? You are simply wrong that he had an inordinate number of touches. He had 301 carries and 69 rec. - 370 touches. Compare to SA's 373 touches, Barber's 374, LT's 392, CuMar's 412, Edge's 385, Dillon;s 360, and Rudi Johnson's 377 and that silly argument you just made about touches could be made about any of those backs - all except Dillon touched the ball more than Davis.

Third, you should expect similar workload numbers on 2005 - not less. Davis' high number of catches should be expected to CONTINUE - not decrease - he got only only one TD off of receiving catches, and if he plays 14-16 games, he is highly likely to run the ball 275-325 times again, given Dom Capers' devotion to the running game.

Fantasy wise, Dom Davis is absolute feast due to his combined yardage numbers and the fact that he plays for a coach who will run the ball 450 times a year, and is perfectly comfortable targetting Davis out of the backfield - Davis had 87 targets - three shy of Westbrook's league leading number - and he caught 69 of them for an incredibly high 79.3% completion rate - that's LT, Westbrook, Edge, CuMar reception completion range - even typical pass catching backs like Tiki, Priest and Dunn weren't as effective catching the ball as Dom Davis.

You want to talk stats, EBF, and you will lose this one by a landslide - the only one NOT working in Davis' favor is his YPC of 3.9.

That was way more the OL's fault than Davis' - the team switched in 2004 to a new zone blocking scheme - the team rushed 480 times in 2004 with a team 3.9 YPC. Funny that DD would have the exact same average handling only 62.2% of the team's rushing carries. Watch the team's, and DD's, YPC average shoot up this year to the 4.5 range as the OL is more comfortable with the scheme and Capers has added some good pieces to the OL.

Everyone avoid DD for these silly and indefensible prejudices - please - I beg you - I could use having him fall to me in the 2nd round.
Now you're talking. But 3 TD's is WAYYYY too many rec TDs to expect. ;)

 

bostonfred

Footballguy
Good topic. Maybe I don't follow Houston closely enough to know that they are really desperate to replace Davis, but it seems odd to me that people talk about replacing a productive runner with anything short of a stud. Vernand Morency doesn't strike me as a stud, although I know a lot of people were high on him going into the draft. Am I missing something here?

Now to go way off topic for a second:

15 games-298carries-1,168 yards-3.92YPC
Can I ask why people do this? Not to pick on Scupper, who's been posting some really decent stuff in the Shark Pool recently, but I've never understood why so many people pick arbitrary numbers like 298 carries, or 3.92 YPC. If you'd made it 300 carries and 3.9 YPC, he'd have had 1170 yards - are you that accurate in your predictions that we need to say he's a little better than this 3.9 YPC guy, but not quite as good as that one? It sometimes seems like people just want to look more sophisticated by predicting uneven numbers.
 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Domanick Davis appears to be an average back who excels due to an immense workload.
as I pointed out, you are 180 degrees wrong on this EBF.please don't make me pull the red zone numbers too - DD and the Texans had an average number of opps in the red zone - but DD's BALANCE, ABILITY TO FALL FORWARD and GO THROUGH TACKLE, and his INSTINCTIVE VISION gave him a very high TD to carries rate from inside the 10/inside the 5.

As I said earlier, those are the talents DD brings to the table. His TALENT makes for a lot of TDs - was Marcus Allen an "average talent" His talent made the TDs happen - so he will CONTINUE to see the ball in the red zone in 2005.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Morency should be better than mack, hollings, or wells - much more of a threat to cut into davis's numbers - this is the main variable that is changing in DD's situation - if he gets banged up, morency has the talent to impress and keep the 1st and 2nd down job.the DD situation bears watching. I would not trust him in dynasty leagues.edit to add: i like davis as a player but i dont think he is best suited for the "ball control RB" job - the kind of RB that can push a defense to submission late in a game. Morency did that on multiple occasions at oklahoma st last year - taking over games and breaking big runs with his elusiveness - he's probably behind only cadillac in this class for cutting ability/change of direction - he's the kind of RB that can "get hot", and gain momentum as the game goes on, like benson - if his stop/start move and cuts translate to this level, he could relegate davis to a role playing back instead of the feature of the running game.

 
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joffer

Footballguy
Good topic. Maybe I don't follow Houston closely enough to know that they are really desperate to replace Davis, but it seems odd to me that people talk about replacing a productive runner with anything short of a stud. Vernand Morency doesn't strike me as a stud, although I know a lot of people were high on him going into the draft. Am I missing something here?

Now to go way off topic for a second:

15 games-298carries-1,168 yards-3.92YPC
Can I ask why people do this? Not to pick on Scupper, who's been posting some really decent stuff in the Shark Pool recently, but I've never understood why so many people pick arbitrary numbers like 298 carries, or 3.92 YPC. If you'd made it 300 carries and 3.9 YPC, he'd have had 1170 yards - are you that accurate in your predictions that we need to say he's a little better than this 3.9 YPC guy, but not quite as good as that one? It sometimes seems like people just want to look more sophisticated by predicting uneven numbers.
can't speak for MTS, but I myself am a bit excel-challenged, so using projections like 284/1123 instead of 280/1120 helps me avoid ties and problems sorting :bag: :D

 

bostonfred

Footballguy
Davis is one of those players that I just don't like. I think his stats and numbers are much better than his actual talent.
I don;t get this - I have watched maybe 5 or 6 Texans' games the last two years and when I see DD run, I see a guy that runs through tackles, falls forward, has amazing balance, and instinctive vision - automatically hits the hole hard without thinking.Yeah, he's no Faulk or Priest in the open field - those guys are drafted first round as incredible one-of-a kind talents (Edit: i realize priest was an undrafted FA) - but Dom has what Terrel Davis and Emmitt Smith had - football talent. Which is infinitely more important than looking like Barry Sanders.
Statistically he was practically equivalent to Thomas Jones last year. The only major difference is that Dom got a lot more touches and had more TDs.
well, if that's all....
:lmao:
 
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MelvinTScupper

Guest
Good topic. Maybe I don't follow Houston closely enough to know that they are really desperate to replace Davis, but it seems odd to me that people talk about replacing a productive runner with anything short of a stud. Vernand Morency doesn't strike me as a stud, although I know a lot of people were high on him going into the draft. Am I missing something here?

Now to go way off topic for a second:

15 games-298carries-1,168 yards-3.92YPC
Can I ask why people do this? Not to pick on Scupper, who's been posting some really decent stuff in the Shark Pool recently, but I've never understood why so many people pick arbitrary numbers like 298 carries, or 3.92 YPC. If you'd made it 300 carries and 3.9 YPC, he'd have had 1170 yards - are you that accurate in your predictions that we need to say he's a little better than this 3.9 YPC guy, but not quite as good as that one? It sometimes seems like people just want to look more sophisticated by predicting uneven numbers.
I'll answer the question directly. I used to wonder the same thing. However, now I am basing some of my predictions on a mathematical basis. If a RB had 321 carries last year over 15 games, and I want to predict he'll have 90% of those carries because they brought in a goalline back, I'll simply multiply the 321 by .9. Thats 288.9 (which I'd round up to 289). Then, I'll use a 2 or 3 year avg for ypc, depending on changes to the O-line. Anyway, the spreadsheets you have to maintain make it easier to have certain cells contain formulas, and then you can tweak the numbers slightly later.I honestly felt the exact same way you did. If you did it the other way, it ends up looking just as strange.

 

EBF

Footballguy
????  Equivelant to TJones? Not even close. Since this is a feast or famine fantasy thread, TJones averaged 12.82 standard FF points/game DD averaged 17.44  The ONLY statistical similarity between the players is that they both averaged 3.9 YPC.First, you say he is not as good talent-wise as his stats indicate, then you defend your position by comparing stats between players??? Makes no sense.
You completely missed the point of what I was saying. Here's a simple analogy. Let's pretend that we have two baseball players, Player A and Player B. Player A has 400 at bats and hits 40 home runs with a .333 average. Player B has 200 at bats and hits 20 home runs with a .333 average. Can you conclude from this data that Player A is better than Player B? No. They appear to be equivalent. The only difference is that one had many more at bats (opportunities).On a per touch (opportunity) basis, Thomas Jones was very similar to Domanick Davis last year. The only major difference is that one player touched the ball far more often than the other. That's my point. One is not significantly better than the other. One simply had more opportunities. You can't just look at the totals and blindly assume that they're the end all measure of a player's worth. If I rushed 3,000 times in a season then I could break the NFL's single season record. That wouldn't make me a better (more effective) player than someone with 300 carries for 1,500 yards. What's more important than totals is the average yield per opportunity. That's the best measure of a player's effectiveness given a reasonable sample size.
Second, huge number of touches??  You are simply wrong that he had an inordinate number of touches. He had 301 carries and 69 rec. - 370 touches. Compare to SA's 373 touches, Barber's 374, LT's 392, CuMar's 412, Edge's 385, Dillon;s 360, and Rudi Johnson's 377 and that silly argument you just made about touches could be made about any of those backs - all except Dillon touched the ball more than Davis.
370 is a lot of touches. That you were only able to name a handful of backs with that many touches last season proves as much.
Third, you should expect similar workload numbers on 2005 - not less.  Davis' high number of catches should be expected to CONTINUE - not decrease - he got only only one TD off of receiving catches, and if he plays 14-16 games, he is highly likely to run the ball 275-325 times again, given Dom Capers' devotion to the running game.
The main problem with this reasoning is that it doesn't account for the possibility of Morency stealing carries. I've heard rumors of the Texans being unhappy with Davis and it doesn't seem unreasonable to think Vernand could push for playing time. That could obviously hurt Davis' stats.
You want to talk stats, EBF, and you will lose this one by a landslide - the only one NOT working in Davis' favor is his YPC of 3.9.
That's because you're consistently focusing on the wrong stats. I've been in this argument before. It's very simple. I am not arguing that Domanick Davis wasn't productive last year and that he won't be productive next year if given the same number of touches. I'm arguing that his talent level is low enough to where he is not guaranteed to maintain his role as his team's unchallenged lead back. That's where the threat to his production lies.
 
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Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Now you're talking. But 3 TD's is WAYYYY too many rec TDs to expect.

;)
that's right. :P Do you realize how unpredictable receiving TDs are? SA had 22 catches - 4 for TDs. DD had 69 catches - 1 for a TD. In that year of LT's 100 catches and Priest's 80-ish, AGreen had less than 60 catches - and matched LT's 4 receiving TDs.

It seems that the RBs who are taregtted in the red zone are the ones who get a lot of rec. TDs (see Brian Westbrook) - and DD is not targetted in the red zone b/c Capers would prefer to run the ball down there. So, yeah - 3 rec. TDs is high.

However, you may be onto something predicting as many rushing TDs - maybe not the EXACT same number, but in that range is reasonable given what I've seen from DD's efficiency and Capers' desire to run th eball 450+ times a year.

 
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MelvinTScupper

Guest
Now you're talking.  But 3 TD's is WAYYYY too many rec TDs to expect.

;)
that's right. :P Do you realize how unpredictable receiving TDs are? SA had 22 catches - 4 for TDs. DD had 69 catches - 1 for a TD. In that year of LT's 100 catches and Priest's 80-ish, AGreen had less than 60 catches - and matched LT's 4 receiving TDs.

It seems that the RBs who are taregtted in the red zone are the ones who get a lot of rec. TDs (see Brian Westbrook) - and DD is not targetted in the red zone b/c Capers would prefer to run the ball down there. So, yeah - 3 rec. TDs is high.

However, you may be onto something predicting as many rushing TDs - maybe not the EXACT same number, but in that range is reasonable given what I've seen from DD's efficiency and Capers' desire to run th eball 450+ times a year.
Yeah, I realize it's difficult to predict anything but total carries and total yards, and those are based on history, most often.But, you gotta take some shots. I think he's the only back I have catching more than 2.

 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
sorry for the embedded quotes probelm - i'm a moron with these sometimes.

???? Equivelant to TJones? Not even close. Since this is a feast or famine fantasy thread, TJones averaged 12.82 standard FF points/game DD averaged 17.44 The ONLY statistical similarity between the players is that they both averaged 3.9 YPC.First, you say he is not as good talent-wise as his stats indicate, then you defend your position by comparing stats between players??? Makes no sense.
You completely missed the point of what I was saying. Here's a simple analogy. Let's pretend that we have two baseball players, Player A and Player B. Player A has 400 at bats and hits 40 home runs with a .333 average. Player B has 200 at bats and hits 20 home runs with a .333 average. Can you conclude from this data that Player A is better than Player B? No. They appear to be equivalent. The only difference is that one had many more at bats (opportunities).

On a per touch (opportunity) basis, Thomas Jones was very similar to Domanick Davis last year. The only major difference is that one player touched the ball far more often than the other. That's my point. One is not significantly better than the other. One simply had more opportunities.

You can't just look at the totals and blindly assume that they're the end all measure of a player's worth. If I rushed 3,000 times in a season then I could break the NFL's single season record. That wouldn't make me a better (more effective) player than someone with 300 carries for 1,500 yards. What's more important than totals is the averages yield per opportunity. That's the best measure of a player's effectiveness given a reasonable sample size.

OK - so you have no response to the fact you pulled STATS again to dispute TALENT? And,. like you said, LT had the same stat of 3.9. Is DD like LT???

Second' date=' huge number of touches?? You are simply wrong that he had an inordinate number of touches. He had 301 carries and 69 rec. - 370 touches. Compare to SA's 373 touches, Barber's 374, LT's 392, CuMar's 412, Edge's 385, Dillon;s 360, and Rudi Johnson's 377 and that silly argument you just made about touches could be made about any of those backs - all except Dillon touched the ball more than Davis.[/quote']370 is a lot of touches. That you were only able to name a handful of backs with that many touches last season proves as much.
Wrong - i just took the top-10 RBs last year.

Third' date=' you should expect similar workload numbers on 2005 - not less. Davis' high number of catches should be expected to CONTINUE - not decrease - he got only only one TD off of receiving catches, and if he plays 14-16 games, he is highly likely to run the ball 275-325 times again, given Dom Capers' devotion to the running game.[/quote']The main problem with this reasoning is that it doesn't account for the possibility of Morency stealing carries. I've heard rumors of the Texans being unhappy with Davis and it doesn't seem unreasonable to think Vernand could push for playing time. That could obviously hurt Davis' stats.
??? I haven't heard rumors or reports on the team disappointed w/Davis - link? And, no, you missed the point here - the team allocated 480 rushes last year - DD getting 300 of them is EXTREMELY likely with Morecy getting his 10 per game.

You want to talk stats' date=' EBF, and you will lose this one by a landslide - the only one NOT working in Davis' favor is his YPC of 3.9.[/quote']That's because you're consistently focusing on the wrong stats. I've been in this argument before. It's very simple. I am not arguing that Domanick Davis wasn't productive last year and that he won't be productive next year if given the same number of touches. I'm arguing that his talent level is low enough to where he is not guaranteed to maintain his role as his team's lead back. That's where the threat to his production lies.
And here you go talking talent level again and prividing nothing in respoinse except stats - I focused on ALL of DD's stats, what are you focusing on? The only story I saw was the team is scared of losing Davis next year to RFA.

Davis story
 
M

MelvinTScupper

Guest
last year it was that Tony Hollings would steal touches, either at the goal line or win the job outright. Now this year, it's some 3rd round rookie that's going to supplant the #1 offensive weapon on this team.Crazy.

 

packersfan

Footballguy
My opinion is that Morency drafted in the third round is going to really hurt DD. I forsee VM getting the goalline carries
Why would the Texans do this? Of Davis' 13 rushing TDs last season, 10 came from the 5-yard line or closer. He may not be a prototypical power RB, but it's pretty obvious Davis is money near the goal line. Why would a team mess around with something that's clearly working?
 

packersfan

Footballguy
last year it was that Tony Hollings would steal touches, either at the goal line or win the job outright. Now this year, it's some 3rd round rookie that's going to supplant the #1 offensive weapon on this team.

Crazy.
I agree. And all the focus on Morency also ignores the fact that Jonathan Wells did a good job when replacing Davis last season. Wells was overlooked last season and he seems to be overlooked again now.
 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
My opinion is that Morency drafted in the third round is going to really hurt DD.  I forsee VM getting the goalline carries
Why would the Texans do this? Of Davis' 13 rushing TDs last season, 10 came from the 5-yard line or closer. He may not be a prototypical power RB, but it's pretty obvious Davis is money near the goal line. Why would a team mess around with something that's clearly working?
Thanks - saved me the work of having to research this again to counter EBF's DD has not talent argument.His talent is Marcus Allen/Emmit Smith talent - he is MONEY at nailing the hole and making positive yardage - which is absolute gold in the red zone.

 

EBF

Footballguy
OK - so you have no response to the fact you pulled STATS again to dispute TALENT? And,. like you said, LT had the same stat of 3.9. Is DD like LT???
YPC is a pretty important stat. It's comparable to batting average. It's not my problem if you fail to understand that. I knew Tomlinson would come up sooner or later. I remember reading that he was playing at roughly 60% last year. That seems believable given the decline from the previous two seasons, when he'd averaged 4.85 YPC.

Domanick Davis is not LaDainain Tomlinson. Tomlinson was clearly below 100% for a large portion of 2004. However, he's shown that he's a high YPC guy when fully healthy. Davis showed flashes of entering that category as a rookie, but he regressed last year. I understand that he may also have been dealing with injuries, but the fact remains that he doesn't have the track record that LT does. He also doesn't have the top 5 pedigree working in his favor.

Wrong - i just took the top-10 RBs last year.
In that case it's my mistake. However, the top 10 RBs should theoretically be guys who touched the ball a lot. My guess is that there were only 1-3 guys outside of the top 10 who had more touches than DD.
??? I haven't heard rumors or reports on the team disappointed w/Davis - link? And, no, you missed the point here - the team allocated 480 rushes last year - DD getting 300 of them is EXTREMELY likely with Morecy getting his 10 per game.
I have heard rumors about them being disappointed with him.
And here you go talking talent level again and prividing nothing in respoinse except stats - I focused on ALL of DD's stats, what are you focusing on? The only story I saw was the team is scared of losing Davis next year to RFA.
I'm focusing on a combination of stats and personal evaluation. I don't think Domanick Davis stands out as an elite back statistically. He's done well from a fantasy standpoint, but that's the result of his situation. He hasn't had any serious competition for carries and he's been given the ball a lot for lack of a better option. I don't think he's an above average NFL starter and I think the team will continue to try to find other options at RB.
 
M

MelvinTScupper

Guest
I'm focusing on a combination of stats and personal evaluation. I don't think Domanick Davis stands out as an elite back statistically. He's done well from a fantasy standpoint, but that's the result of his situation. He hasn't had any serious competition for carries and he's been given the ball a lot for lack of a better option. I don't think he's an above average NFL starter and I think the team will continue to try to find other options at RB.
Dude, he was in the top 10 statistically...how is that not an "elite back"??Personal evaluation? You heard rumors? This sounds like conjecture. Please back it up with something.

You're starting to really lose it here.

 

packersfan

Footballguy
I have heard rumors about them being disappointed with him.
Can you at least cite a source? "Someone inside the Texans' organization?" Something? We can all sit here and say we heard this or that. Who's going to prove otherwise? But it's pretty meaningless unless you can back it up with something concrete or even close to being concrete.
 

EBF

Footballguy
Dude, he was in the top 10 statistically...how is that not an "elite back"??
This is exactly what I was arguing against. Total yards and TDs don't tell the whole story of a player's worth. What's more important is yards/touch or yards/carry. This should be a very easy thing to understand. Here is an extreme example in case you still don't get it:

Player A rushes 500 times for 500 yards

Player B rushes 100 times for 450 yards

Assuming the logic that I infer from your posts, you think Player A is the better player. I would argue that Player B is actually better, despite having less yards. He was more effective ona per/rush basis. That's extremely important.

Personal evaluation?  You heard rumors?  This sounds like conjecture.  Please back it up with something.
I visit a lot of websites. I don't write down everything that I read for later reference. Nevertheless, I remember more than one source mentioning that Houston was interested in an uprgade at RB. I think there was even a thread on this board mentioning that they would take one if the big three RBs if one were to fall to their first round pick.
 
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Domanick Davis appears to be an average back who excels due to an immense workload.
as I pointed out, you are 180 degrees wrong on this EBF.please don't make me pull the red zone numbers too - DD and the Texans had an average number of opps in the red zone - but DD's BALANCE, ABILITY TO FALL FORWARD and GO THROUGH TACKLE, and his INSTINCTIVE VISION gave him a very high TD to carries rate from inside the 10/inside the 5.

As I said earlier, those are the talents DD brings to the table. His TALENT makes for a lot of TDs - was Marcus Allen an "average talent" His talent made the TDs happen - so he will CONTINUE to see the ball in the red zone in 2005.
:goodposting: For whatever reason I have Davis on 0 dynasty leagues, but he reminds me a LOT of Priest Holmes. He is incredibly underrated. I don't care where he was drafted--the man has got skills.

 

packersfan

Footballguy
Domanick Davis appears to be an average back who excels due to an immense workload.
as I pointed out, you are 180 degrees wrong on this EBF.please don't make me pull the red zone numbers too - DD and the Texans had an average number of opps in the red zone - but DD's BALANCE, ABILITY TO FALL FORWARD and GO THROUGH TACKLE, and his INSTINCTIVE VISION gave him a very high TD to carries rate from inside the 10/inside the 5.

As I said earlier, those are the talents DD brings to the table. His TALENT makes for a lot of TDs - was Marcus Allen an "average talent" His talent made the TDs happen - so he will CONTINUE to see the ball in the red zone in 2005.
:goodposting: For whatever reason I have Davis on 0 dynasty leagues, but he reminds me a LOT of Priest Holmes. He is incredibly underrated. I don't care where he was drafted--the man has got skills.
More importantly, he just produces and given how he produces as both a runner and receiver, it's clear he will continue to have a key role in the Houston offense and should be viewed as no worse than a strong RB2 option.
 
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Chitown Mole

Footballguy
last year it was that Tony Hollings would steal touches, either at the goal line or win the job outright. Now this year, it's some 3rd round rookie that's going to supplant the #1 offensive weapon on this team.

Crazy.
I agree. And all the focus on Morency also ignores the fact that Jonathan Wells did a good job when replacing Davis last season. Wells was overlooked last season and he seems to be overlooked again now.
No, all that shows is the Texans line run blocks better than most of you guys think. Wells is a miserable running back. Watch him run. He turns and backs into contact. Dom has been a fantasy producer, but he is just barely above average in talent....and its laughable to compare him to Marcus Allen and Priest Holmes. It took him 173 attempts before he had his first run from scrimmage over 12 yards last year for cripes sakes.

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/395946/gamelogs/2004

 

EBF

Footballguy
I decided to look at the YPC of each of the top 15 RBs in the FBG expert rankings who have played at least two seasons in the NFL (because Domanick Davis has played two seasons). I then looked at games in which those players received what I consider to be a significant number of carries (10). I then looked at the percentage of those games in which the RB had what I would consider a "bad" game (3.5 YPC or less). Here are the results, in order from best to worst.

% of Bad Games

Priest Holmes - 8.3%

Corey Dillon - 14.2%

Deuce McAllister - 21.4%

Shaun Alexander - 21.8%

Jamal Lewis - 23.1%

Ahman Green - 31.03%

Edgerrin James - 32.1%

LaDainian Tomlinson - 33.3%

Clinton Portis - 33.3%

Rudi Johnson - 42.3%

Domanick Davis - 46.2%

This suggests that from an NFL performance perspective, Domanick Davis is more likely to have a bad game than any of the other top 15 RBs in the FBG expert rankings who have 2+ years of experience.

While you can certainly argue that he's been better from a fantasy perspective, that's not the crux of my case against him. My argument is that he's an ineffective NFL player and that there are valid reasons to believe that may be supplanted if he continues to post a poor yard/carry average.

I think the best argument for DD is not to point to his impressive total points numbers, but rather to suggest that last year was an anomaly due to injuries. If DD continues at 3.9 YPC then I think he will be replaced within the next year or two. However, I believe he can hold the job if he improves to 4.2-4.5 YPC.

I know this seems like nitpicking to some of you, but I think it would be foolish to ignore stats. Claiming that a 4.2 YPC average is barely any different from a 3.9 YPC average is similar to saying a .300 batting average is no different from a .260 average. There's a big difference and while it may not bother you, you can bet that coaches are aware of how productive their players are.

 
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Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
OK - so you have no response to the fact you pulled STATS again to dispute TALENT?  And,. like you said, LT had the same stat of 3.9.  Is DD like LT???
YPC is a pretty important stat. It's comparable to batting average. It's not my problem if you fail to understand that.
Whatever, EBF - you are on a losing position here - the TEAM rushed 480 times and as a TEAM rushed for 3.9 YPC. That DD had 301 ruishes for 3.9 YPC tells me that his YPC was tied directly to the OL's performance, not his own.YPC is a TEAM number as much as an individual number when the individual is responsioble for 62% of the rushes - it'd be a whole nother matter if there WAS one guy with the bulk of the rushing stats - such as LT's 3.9, for example.

It's not my problem if you fail to understand that.

 

packersfan

Footballguy
last year it was that Tony Hollings would steal touches, either at the goal line or win the job outright.  Now this year, it's some 3rd round rookie that's going to supplant the #1 offensive weapon on this team.

Crazy.
I agree. And all the focus on Morency also ignores the fact that Jonathan Wells did a good job when replacing Davis last season. Wells was overlooked last season and he seems to be overlooked again now.
No, all that shows is the Texans line run blocks better than most of you guys think. Wells is a miserable running back. Watch him run. He turns and backs into contact.
I'm not saying Wells is any good; I'm saying he outperformed the more highly touted RB who was also on the roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen agian.
 
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Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
???  I haven't heard rumors or reports on the team disappointed w/Davis - link?  And, no, you missed the point here - the team allocated 480 rushes last year - DD getting 300 of them is EXTREMELY likely with Morecy getting his 10 per game.
I have heard rumors about them being disappointed with him.
:lmao: and you avoid any links or even an "I heard it on talk radio" comment - at least I found a relevant article that shows the team is NOT disappinted with DD but ARE worried about losing him next year.

:bs:

 

Chitown Mole

Footballguy
If Wells makes the team this year it will be because of special teams. Hollings was hurt again most of the year last season. They will battle for the 3rd RB spot on this roster.

 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I'm focusing on a combination of stats and personal evaluation. I don't think Domanick Davis stands out as an elite back statistically. He's done well from a fantasy standpoint, but that's the result of his situation. He hasn't had any serious competition for carries and he's been given the ball a lot for lack of a better option. I don't think he's an above average NFL starter and I think the team will continue to try to find other options at RB.
Dude, he was in the top 10 statistically...how is that not an "elite back"??Personal evaluation? You heard rumors? This sounds like conjecture. Please back it up with something.

You're starting to really lose it here.
well, my main problem with EBF's comments is he keeps saying "I think he's not an elite talent" or whatever, and has diddly plus squat to comment on his actual talent level. And then grabs stats to prove a point - when DD's stats - except YPC - is as high as any elite back in the league.Dp you have ANYthing to say on DD's ability? "He's a good pass catcher, but has limited moves in the open field once he gets the ball?" "he has a knack for th eendzone, but has limited ability to run off big gains" SOMEthing??

 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I decided to look at the YPC of each of the top 15 RBs in the FBG expert rankings who have played at least two seasons in the NFL (because Domanick Davis has played two seasons). I then looked at games in which those players received what I consider to be a significant number of carries (10). I then looked at the percentage of those games in which the RB had what I would consider a "bad" game (3.5 YPC or less). Here are the results, in order from best to worst.

% of Bad Games

Priest Holmes - 8.3%

Corey Dillon - 14.2%

Deuce McAllister - 21.4%

Shaun Alexander - 21.8%

Jamal Lewis - 23.1%

Ahman Green - 31.03%

Edgerrin James - 32.1%

LaDainian Tomlinson - 33.3%

Clinton Portis - 33.3%

Rudi Johnson - 42.3%

Domanick Davis - 46.2%

This suggests that from an NFL performance perspective, Domanick Davis is more likely to have a bad game than any of the other top 15 RBs in the FBG expert rankings who have 2+ years of experience.

While you can certainly argue that he's been better from a fantasy perspective, that's not the crux of my case against him. My argument is that he's an ineffective NFL player and that there are valid reasons to believe that may be supplanted if he continues to post a poor yard/carry average.

I think the best argument for DD is not to point to his impressive total points numbers, but rather to suggest that last year was an anomaly due to injuries. If DD continues at 3.9 YPC then I think he will be replaced within the next year or two. However, I believe he can hold the job if he improves to 4.2-4.5 YPC.

I know this seems like nitpicking to some of you, but I think it would be foolish to ignore stats. Claiming that a 4.2 YPC average is barely any different from a 3.9 YPC average is similar to saying a .300 batting average is no different from a .260 average. There's a big difference and while it may not bother you, you can bet that coaches are aware of how productive their players are.
You are making a horrid mistake overemphasizing ONE statistic in a vaccuum. You have not established that any other RB would create a higher YPC in the same situation.This is an OL and a scxheme problem - not a talent level at RB problem.

Ricky Williams was subject to the vagaries of his OL and the Wannie scheme in 2003 - that does not mean Ricky was not a good RB. This was established conclusively by the craptacular performance of the 'phin OL in 2004.

 

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