Donald Brown (1 Viewer)

[mjr]

I wasn't crazy about Brown when he first came into the NFL, and when Addai continued to hold on to the starting job, I figured he may never take over. But...In 2011 Brown tacked an additional 150 yards and 3 TDs to his 2010 stats with only 5 more carries. Just 5. That tells me he's getting much better. With 645 yards and 5 scores on 134 attempts in 2011, he could rush for 1200 yards and 10 TDs without getting any better than he already is right now... IF Indy gives him around 250 carries for the year. That comes out to 14 or 15 carries a game, which was what Brown was already doing in 5 of the last 8 games last year. Carter wasn't doing as well or as much, and like Brown, I think he still needs more time to improve.

The Colts ran the ball 393 times in 2010 with Manning under center and 382 times last year, which is bottom of the league in attempts. They really can't go much lower even with a good QB like Luck there. They may even rush a little more until the rookie QB settles in. And with Addai gone, there are about 120 additional carries to go around as well. I don't expect them all to go to Brown, but I think he'll break 200 totes and see around 220 at least.

Indy not selecting a RB until the 5th round is a sign of faith, and it seems pretty certain Brown will get the carries that will give him the opportunity to go for 1000+ and double digit TDs.

Who's buying? I already did. Staying far away? Tell me why. What's your price to get him or give him away? Discuss....

 

[Max Power]

I love Brown this year. I think he will be a solid RB2. Probably in the RB16-22 range. He has always been a talented runner, but pass blocking and lack of understanding the playbook kept him off the field his first couple of years.

No reason to think he can't keep his average around 4 yards a carry. With 250 carries, thats a 1K season. Probably about 6-9 TDs mixed in a some work catching the ball out of the backfield.

I don't see Carter as a major threat to steal carries.

ETA: I own in one league and tried to trade him for a late first round pick with no luck. Tried to buy in another league by swapping first round picks and throwing in a third to the other owner with no luck either. I think a lot of people are sleeping on him, but those who watched him play last season know what they have.

 

[finito]

4.8 ypc last year with awful qbing. I like him, but I'm not completely sold he'll be great.

 

[rizzler]

Lynch is Beast Mode.

Brown is Weak Mode.

 

[Nate]

I really can't think of a single parallel between Lynch's situation last year and Brown's this year.

 

[Buck Stop]

a rookie QB and a team that will likely down in the 2nd half of a lot of games? Sounds ideal for a good pass catching back (he's definitely better than Carter in that area) I like his situation but am not sure about his talent level. Of course, I remember people saying the same thing about Forte the year he came out (not sure his talent is that great, but ideal landing spot)

 

[mjr]

I really can't think of a single parallel between Lynch's situation last year and Brown's this year.

Lynch2009: 450 yds 2 TDs

2010: 737 yds 7 TDs

2011: 1204 yds 12 TDs

Brown

2010: 497 yds 2 TDs

2011: 645 yds 5 TDs

2012: ???

 

[mlball77]

I really can't think of a single parallel between Lynch's situation last year and Brown's this year.

Lynch2009: 450 yds 2 TDs

2010: 737 yds 7 TDs

2011: 1204 yds 12 TDs

Brown

2010: 497 yds 2 TDs

2011: 645 yds 5 TDs

2012: ???

Not bashing Brown here (I'm mixed on him right now), but you left out 2007 and 2008, when Lynch ran for 1000+ yds. When you put those in with the other years you've shown, their career arc or potential upside doesn't seem quite so similar, imo (driven only by the stats).

 

[mjr]

I really can't think of a single parallel between Lynch's situation last year and Brown's this year.

Lynch2009: 450 yds 2 TDs

2010: 737 yds 7 TDs

2011: 1204 yds 12 TDs

Brown

2010: 497 yds 2 TDs

2011: 645 yds 5 TDs

2012: ???

Not bashing Brown here (I'm mixed on him right now), but you left out 2007 and 2008, when Lynch ran for 1000+ yds. When you put those in with the other years you've shown, their career arc or potential upside doesn't seem quite so similar, imo (driven only by the stats).

Did you expect Lynch to run for 1200 last year?

 

[mjr]

The Lynch comparison wasn't intended to be much. Don't know why some of you guys are getting so hung up on it. Didn't even reference Lynch in my analysis.

All I'm wondering is if Brown can come out and have a big season when most people aren't really talking about him. No One really talked about and expected Lynch to do what he did last offseason.

 

[Instinctive]

shhhh...I haven't got him everywhere yet....

He's cheap enough that even if he completely busts, the risk is totally worth the potential reward here.

 

[mlball77]

I really can't think of a single parallel between Lynch's situation last year and Brown's this year.

Lynch2009: 450 yds 2 TDs

2010: 737 yds 7 TDs

2011: 1204 yds 12 TDs

Brown

2010: 497 yds 2 TDs

2011: 645 yds 5 TDs

2012: ???

Not bashing Brown here (I'm mixed on him right now), but you left out 2007 and 2008, when Lynch ran for 1000+ yds. When you put those in with the other years you've shown, their career arc or potential upside doesn't seem quite so similar, imo (driven only by the stats).

Did you expect Lynch to run for 1200 last year?

I actually thought he was in-line for a solid year, but no, not 1200 yds. And I was definitely scared off with his slow start last year, sadly. But back to the larger point, previous to last year he had proven he is capable of 1k+ years in the NFL if given the lead back gig. Showing only his stats from the last 3 years, and leaving out his first two seasons, is a bit misleading in order to make a point, imo.ETA: I don't have any problem with the general argument that Brown is very cheap for the upside he potentially represents this year. He should be in-line for a good number of touches this year. I'm with ya on that.

 

[mjr]

I really can't think of a single parallel between Lynch's situation last year and Brown's this year.

Lynch2009: 450 yds 2 TDs

2010: 737 yds 7 TDs

2011: 1204 yds 12 TDs

Brown

2010: 497 yds 2 TDs

2011: 645 yds 5 TDs

2012: ???

Not bashing Brown here (I'm mixed on him right now), but you left out 2007 and 2008, when Lynch ran for 1000+ yds. When you put those in with the other years you've shown, their career arc or potential upside doesn't seem quite so similar, imo (driven only by the stats).

Did you expect Lynch to run for 1200 last year?

I actually thought he was in-line for a solid year, but no, not 1200 yds. And I was definitely scared off with his slow start last year, sadly. But back to the larger point, previous to last year he had proven he is capable of 1k+ years in the NFL if given the lead back gig. Showing only his stats from the last 3 years, and leaving out his first two seasons, is a bit misleading in order to make a point, imo.

I don't think it's all that misleading. My argument for Brown is in my first post, and I never referred to Lynch's stats to do it. The only Lynch link here is in the poll question itself, and the only comparison I had intended there was a RB coming out and having a very good season after a few years of eh. But I'd be more than happy to change the poll question if it really bothers you guys that much. Just tell me what you think is best. Don't really care.

 

[mlball77]

I really can't think of a single parallel between Lynch's situation last year and Brown's this year.

Lynch2009: 450 yds 2 TDs

2010: 737 yds 7 TDs

2011: 1204 yds 12 TDs

Brown

2010: 497 yds 2 TDs

2011: 645 yds 5 TDs

2012: ???

Not bashing Brown here (I'm mixed on him right now), but you left out 2007 and 2008, when Lynch ran for 1000+ yds. When you put those in with the other years you've shown, their career arc or potential upside doesn't seem quite so similar, imo (driven only by the stats).

Did you expect Lynch to run for 1200 last year?

I actually thought he was in-line for a solid year, but no, not 1200 yds. And I was definitely scared off with his slow start last year, sadly. But back to the larger point, previous to last year he had proven he is capable of 1k+ years in the NFL if given the lead back gig. Showing only his stats from the last 3 years, and leaving out his first two seasons, is a bit misleading in order to make a point, imo.

I don't think it's all that misleading. My argument for Brown is in my first post, and I never referred to Lynch's stats to do it. The only Lynch link here is in the poll question itself, and the only comparison I had intended there was a RB coming out and having a very good season after a few years of eh. But I'd be more than happy to change the poll question if it really bothers you guys that much. Just tell me what you think is best. Don't really care.

I added a bit to my post a couple minutes after posting it initially. I added that I generally agree that Brown is a solid player to target on the cheap that should be in-line for a lot of touches this year. I can get on board with him as a good buy low candidate. I don't think drawing a parallel between Lynch's stats from the period you selected gives us any indication of what Brown might be capable of going forward. But I'll drop this point because I hate when people nitpick on points that aren't central to the argument/discussion (so, I don't want to be that guy). Plus, as I've said, I am mixed on Brown for this year, but do think he could offer a nice return based on the purchase price one is likely to acquire him at.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I agree there's no link between lynch looking fat and awful in 2010 and brown looking good on awful team in 2011..

i think the time to buy brown was around midpoint last year....when he looked very good running the ball and people thought carter was a threat when he looked like he was running in mud and can't catch a cold.

browns past issue was pass blocking...carters issue is talent.

 

[runner06]

I think Brown gets an unfair shake by many but keep in mind he had an 80 yard run last year.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

I just can't realistically see Brown in anything other than a RBBC with Delone Carter and possibly with another back should the Colts add another via FA or trade.

 

[doowain]

The Lynch comparison wasn't intended to be much. Don't know why some of you guys are getting so hung up on it. Didn't even reference Lynch in my analysis. All I'm wondering is if Brown can come out and have a big season when most people aren't really talking about him. No One really talked about and expected Lynch to do what he did last offseason.

Don't know why they are getting hung up on the Lynch comparison?!? You propose that Brown is this years Marshawn Lynch in your friggin thread title.Count me on the side that doesn't see the comparison but recognizes the low level of risk (in relation to cost) and the potential reward.

 

[BigTex]

I think Brown gets an unfair shake by many but keep in mind he had an 80 yard run last year.

It kills when people say this. Murray 91.F. Jackson 80.R. Bush 76.Ray Rice had a 67 and a 70.Mike Turner had 61 and a 81.D. Williams 74.B. Wells 71.McFadden 70.McCoy 60.McGahee 60.Let's just punish all this guys for being so fast that they did not get caught from behind. Shame on them for gifts and athletic abilities!

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Dammit Donald?

Doubt dat.

 

[mjr]

The Lynch comparison wasn't intended to be much. Don't know why some of you guys are getting so hung up on it. Didn't even reference Lynch in my analysis. All I'm wondering is if Brown can come out and have a big season when most people aren't really talking about him. No One really talked about and expected Lynch to do what he did last offseason.

Don't know why they are getting hung up on the Lynch comparison?!? You propose that Brown is this years Marshawn Lynch in your friggin thread title.Count me on the side that doesn't see the comparison but recognizes the low level of risk (in relation to cost) and the potential reward.

Poll is gone. Title changed. Happy? Geez....

 

[Hoosier16]

browns past issue was pass blocking...carters issue is talent.

I'm not being sarcastic, but is Brown any better now?Anyone think Evans might get a shot? He was at one time, prior to his knee injury as a sophomore, the #1 RB in college football.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

The real question is how high will his stock rise for ppr leagues

 

[az_prof]

Here is a good argument for Brown being a good bet in 2012.

http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/the_case_for_donald_brown/10471294

I am not sure what to make of DVOA, but according to this article, Brown was 5th among RBs in 2012 for DVOA.

I liked what I saw when he got a chance last year. He doesn't fumble often. He can catch and has good RAC. He is an all around back. If he can stay healthy, I project him as a mid-range RB2.

 

[mjr]

Here is a good argument for Brown being a good bet in 2012.http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/the_case_for_donald_brown/10471294I am not sure what to make of DVOA, but according to this article, Brown was 5th among RBs in 202 for DVOA.I liked what I saw when he got a chance last year. He doesn't fumble often. He can catch and has good RAC. He is an all around back. If he can stay healthy, I project him as a mid-range RB2.

Thanks for posting the article. It makes another good point about his improvement in spite of the problems along the O-line, mentioning specifically that he allowed only 2 pressures in 68 pass-blocking attempts. That's a very interesting statistic, because it shows something like a 97% success rate in an area he is most often criticized for. Is it possible that some people either have impossibly high standards or, despite remaining vocal about him, have just made up their mind about Brown and stopped paying attention? With Saturday gone, and with no Guard on that line with more than 2 years experience, Brown should get A LOT of playing time if he can continue to assist in pass blocking in any way that is close to the above success rate. The only question for me is if he can continue to keep up his rush average behind such a young, inexperienced line like this. That alone is reason enough for me to see why some people aren't expecting much of Brown, but if he continues on the path he has already set for himself, I really don't see why he couldn't be a high #2 or low #1 RB this year.

 

[finito]

browns past issue was pass blocking...carters issue is talent.

I'm not being sarcastic, but is Brown any better now?

Yes, he's better at pass protection and at worst an adequate runner, but he seems to have turned a corner to a certain extent and looks to be in line for the bulk of the work.

 

[Riffraff]

New offense this year. New HC and GM. Any impact Ballard may have over the incumbents?

 

[Hoosier16]

Here is a good argument for Brown being a good bet in 2012.

http://network.yardb..._brown/10471294

I am not sure what to make of DVOA, but according to this article, Brown was 5th among RBs in 2012 for DVOA.

I can't see it being meaningful. In 2010, BJGE was 2nd, Jacobs was 3rd, and Ivory was 6th.

 

[Faust]

New offense this year. New HC and GM. Any impact Ballard may have over the incumbents?

Michael Lombardi recently wrote an opinion that he thinks that Ballard could emerge as the Colts best RB

 

[renesauz]

I think Brown gets an unfair shake by many but keep in mind he had an 80 yard run last year.

It kills when people say this. Murray 91.F. Jackson 80.R. Bush 76.Ray Rice had a 67 and a 70.Mike Turner had 61 and a 81.D. Williams 74.B. Wells 71.McFadden 70.McCoy 60.McGahee 60.Let's just punish all this guys for being so fast that they did not get caught from behind. Shame on them for gifts and athletic abilities!

We seem to come to this argument all the time in here. Whether or not a long run in a data set is relevent depends on the data set. For a RB with 250 carries, a couple 50+ yard runs are expected, and absolutely count. For a RB with 40 carries, an 80 yard outlier absolutely must be noted.AT 125 carries, it's worth noting, but shouldn't be held against him. It's 0.5 yards tacked to his average if it's an outlier...which still leaves him in an acceptable NFL range. If it's not an outlier (a fair assumption given that decent backs will have a run like this every 150-175 carries or so and great backs every 100 carries or so), then his ypc was good under the circumstances.While I tend to agree with you that a single run in a 125 carry data set shouldn't be tossed, it's fair to note it.

 

[Shutout]

New offense this year. New HC and GM. Any impact Ballard may have over the incumbents?

Michael Lombardi recently wrote an opinion that he thinks that Ballard could emerge as the Colts best RB

I am really surprised there is not more disussion on this. I can't say I LOVE Ballard, but I can't say he's got too tough a road in front of him.

 

[finito]

New offense this year. New HC and GM. Any impact Ballard may have over the incumbents?

Michael Lombardi recently wrote an opinion that he thinks that Ballard could emerge as the Colts best RB

I am really surprised there is not more disussion on this. I can't say I LOVE Ballard, but I can't say he's got too tough a road in front of him.

I've watched him, I don't think he's very good. Doesn't seem to have natural instincts IMO. But who knows.

 

[runner06]

I think Brown gets an unfair shake by many but keep in mind he had an 80 yard run last year.

It kills when people say this. Murray 91.F. Jackson 80.R. Bush 76.Ray Rice had a 67 and a 70.Mike Turner had 61 and a 81.D. Williams 74.B. Wells 71.McFadden 70.McCoy 60.McGahee 60.Let's just punish all this guys for being so fast that they did not get caught from behind. Shame on them for gifts and athletic abilities!

We seem to come to this argument all the time in here. Whether or not a long run in a data set is relevent depends on the data set. For a RB with 250 carries, a couple 50+ yard runs are expected, and absolutely count. For a RB with 40 carries, an 80 yard outlier absolutely must be noted.AT 125 carries, it's worth noting, but shouldn't be held against him. It's 0.5 yards tacked to his average if it's an outlier...which still leaves him in an acceptable NFL range. If it's not an outlier (a fair assumption given that decent backs will have a run like this every 150-175 carries or so and great backs every 100 carries or so), then his ypc was good under the circumstances.While I tend to agree with you that a single run in a 125 carry data set shouldn't be tossed, it's fair to note it.

Yeah, I guess that's what I'm getting at. It should be noted/kept in mind when ranking him. I am probably a bit biased against longer runs since Brown's 80 yard run last year was the longest run the Colts have had since the Pre-Marshall Faulk days. So when I saw it, it seemed like somewhat of an outlier based on what I've seen in all my time watching the Colts. Guys like Edge and Addai had less breakaway speed then Brown though. But, yeah with a full load I'd expect him to have a couple of 40 yard runs on the season.

 

[az_prof]

I think Brown gets an unfair shake by many but keep in mind he had an 80 yard run last year.

It kills when people say this. Murray 91.F. Jackson 80.R. Bush 76.Ray Rice had a 67 and a 70.Mike Turner had 61 and a 81.D. Williams 74.B. Wells 71.McFadden 70.McCoy 60.McGahee 60.Let's just punish all this guys for being so fast that they did not get caught from behind. Shame on them for gifts and athletic abilities!

We seem to come to this argument all the time in here. Whether or not a long run in a data set is relevent depends on the data set. For a RB with 250 carries, a couple 50+ yard runs are expected, and absolutely count. For a RB with 40 carries, an 80 yard outlier absolutely must be noted.AT 125 carries, it's worth noting, but shouldn't be held against him. It's 0.5 yards tacked to his average if it's an outlier...which still leaves him in an acceptable NFL range. If it's not an outlier (a fair assumption given that decent backs will have a run like this every 150-175 carries or so and great backs every 100 carries or so), then his ypc was good under the circumstances.While I tend to agree with you that a single run in a 125 carry data set shouldn't be tossed, it's fair to note it.

Yeah, I guess that's what I'm getting at. It should be noted/kept in mind when ranking him. I am probably a bit biased against longer runs since Brown's 80 yard run last year was the longest run the Colts have had since the Pre-Marshall Faulk days. So when I saw it, it seemed like somewhat of an outlier based on what I've seen in all my time watching the Colts. Guys like Edge and Addai had less breakaway speed then Brown though. But, yeah with a full load I'd expect him to have a couple of 40 yard runs on the season.

It is funny that he is being faulted for having the longest run in team history in a decade. Here is the play for people to see for themselves. What do I see? A back who breaks a tackle in the backfield (most backs would have lost yards on this play), then eludes another tackler in the backfield as he gets to the outside, then makes a great cut (showing good vision), then shows burst to get downfield fast, then outruns the Titan defense, and finally eludes the last tackle attempt by the Safety. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d8252bcd3/RB-Brown-80-yd-run-TDAny long run will be an "outlier." No back will do this every play. But this was not a fluke play or a play where he just got what the blocking gave him, or a sweep or pitch play where the defense was all inside and he had an open road. He created this play with his own agility, vision, and speed.

 

[BigTex]

I think Brown gets an unfair shake by many but keep in mind he had an 80 yard run last year.

It kills when people say this. Murray 91.

F. Jackson 80.

R. Bush 76.

Ray Rice had a 67 and a 70.

Mike Turner had 61 and a 81.

D. Williams 74.

B. Wells 71.

McFadden 70.

McCoy 60.

McGahee 60.

Let's just punish all this guys for being so fast that they did not get caught from behind. Shame on them for gifts and athletic abilities!

We seem to come to this argument all the time in here. Whether or not a long run in a data set is relevent depends on the data set. For a RB with 250 carries, a couple 50+ yard runs are expected, and absolutely count. For a RB with 40 carries, an 80 yard outlier absolutely must be noted.AT 125 carries, it's worth noting, but shouldn't be held against him. It's 0.5 yards tacked to his average if it's an outlier...which still leaves him in an acceptable NFL range. If it's not an outlier (a fair assumption given that decent backs will have a run like this every 150-175 carries or so and great backs every 100 carries or so), then his ypc was good under the circumstances.

While I tend to agree with you that a single run in a 125 carry data set shouldn't be tossed, it's fair to note it.

Why??? He earned it. It wasn't given to him, he was still playing against the 1st string def.

 

[BigTex]

I think Brown gets an unfair shake by many but keep in mind he had an 80 yard run last year.

It kills when people say this. Murray 91.F. Jackson 80.R. Bush 76.Ray Rice had a 67 and a 70.Mike Turner had 61 and a 81.D. Williams 74.B. Wells 71.McFadden 70.McCoy 60.McGahee 60.Let's just punish all this guys for being so fast that they did not get caught from behind. Shame on them for gifts and athletic abilities!

We seem to come to this argument all the time in here. Whether or not a long run in a data set is relevent depends on the data set. For a RB with 250 carries, a couple 50+ yard runs are expected, and absolutely count. For a RB with 40 carries, an 80 yard outlier absolutely must be noted.AT 125 carries, it's worth noting, but shouldn't be held against him. It's 0.5 yards tacked to his average if it's an outlier...which still leaves him in an acceptable NFL range. If it's not an outlier (a fair assumption given that decent backs will have a run like this every 150-175 carries or so and great backs every 100 carries or so), then his ypc was good under the circumstances.While I tend to agree with you that a single run in a 125 carry data set shouldn't be tossed, it's fair to note it.

Yeah, I guess that's what I'm getting at. It should be noted/kept in mind when ranking him. I am probably a bit biased against longer runs since Brown's 80 yard run last year was the longest run the Colts have had since the Pre-Marshall Faulk days. So when I saw it, it seemed like somewhat of an outlier based on what I've seen in all my time watching the Colts. Guys like Edge and Addai had less breakaway speed then Brown though. But, yeah with a full load I'd expect him to have a couple of 40 yard runs on the season.

It is funny that he is being faulted for having the longest run in team history in a decade. Here is the play for people to see for themselves. What do I see? A back who breaks a tackle in the backfield (most backs would have lost yards on this play), then eludes another tackler in the backfield as he gets to the outside, then makes a great cut (showing good vision), then shows burst to get downfield fast, then outruns the Titan defense, and finally eludes the last tackle attempt by the Safety. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d8252bcd3/RB-Brown-80-yd-run-TDAny long run will be an "outlier." No back will do this every play. But this was not a fluke play or a play where he just got what the blocking gave him, or a sweep or pitch play where the defense was all inside and he had an open road. He created this play with his own agility, vision, and speed.

Good find!!!

 

[renesauz]

I think Brown gets an unfair shake by many but keep in mind he had an 80 yard run last year.

It kills when people say this. Murray 91.

F. Jackson 80.

R. Bush 76.

Ray Rice had a 67 and a 70.

Mike Turner had 61 and a 81.

D. Williams 74.

B. Wells 71.

McFadden 70.

McCoy 60.

McGahee 60.

Let's just punish all this guys for being so fast that they did not get caught from behind. Shame on them for gifts and athletic abilities!

We seem to come to this argument all the time in here. Whether or not a long run in a data set is relevent depends on the data set. For a RB with 250 carries, a couple 50+ yard runs are expected, and absolutely count. For a RB with 40 carries, an 80 yard outlier absolutely must be noted.AT 125 carries, it's worth noting, but shouldn't be held against him. It's 0.5 yards tacked to his average if it's an outlier...which still leaves him in an acceptable NFL range. If it's not an outlier (a fair assumption given that decent backs will have a run like this every 150-175 carries or so and great backs every 100 carries or so), then his ypc was good under the circumstances.

While I tend to agree with you that a single run in a 125 carry data set shouldn't be tossed, it's fair to note it.

Why??? He earned it. It wasn't given to him, he was still playing against the 1st string def.

Sure, but an 80 yard in a set of only 50 carries has a DRAMATIC impact on the ypc. SO much so that the ypc number holds less meaning. My argument isn't to ignore the run, or what he had to do to get the run...it's to note it and take care in comparisons involving ypc. Similarly, it's a mistake to rate players who've had no big runs of any kind (and thus a sub-par ypc) based on a limited data set...it's the same exact mistake in reverse. A mistake we also make.Players with limited carries need to be evaluated more on what our eyes tell us instead of what the numbers tell us. If he broke 3 tackles and made two nice cutbacks and then outran several defenders...that tells us he is dynamic and could be a home run threat....that's info that means more to me than 5.X ypc....and it should mean more to you too.

 

[az_prof]

I think Brown gets an unfair shake by many but keep in mind he had an 80 yard run last year.

It kills when people say this. Murray 91.

F. Jackson 80.

R. Bush 76.

Ray Rice had a 67 and a 70.

Mike Turner had 61 and a 81.

D. Williams 74.

B. Wells 71.

McFadden 70.

McCoy 60.

McGahee 60.

Let's just punish all this guys for being so fast that they did not get caught from behind. Shame on them for gifts and athletic abilities!

We seem to come to this argument all the time in here. Whether or not a long run in a data set is relevent depends on the data set. For a RB with 250 carries, a couple 50+ yard runs are expected, and absolutely count. For a RB with 40 carries, an 80 yard outlier absolutely must be noted.AT 125 carries, it's worth noting, but shouldn't be held against him. It's 0.5 yards tacked to his average if it's an outlier...which still leaves him in an acceptable NFL range. If it's not an outlier (a fair assumption given that decent backs will have a run like this every 150-175 carries or so and great backs every 100 carries or so), then his ypc was good under the circumstances.

While I tend to agree with you that a single run in a 125 carry data set shouldn't be tossed, it's fair to note it.

Why??? He earned it. It wasn't given to him, he was still playing against the 1st string def.

Sure, but an 80 yard in a set of only 50 carries has a DRAMATIC impact on the ypc. SO much so that the ypc number holds less meaning. My argument isn't to ignore the run, or what he had to do to get the run...it's to note it and take care in comparisons involving ypc. Similarly, it's a mistake to rate players who've had no big runs of any kind (and thus a sub-par ypc) based on a limited data set...it's the same exact mistake in reverse. A mistake we also make.Players with limited carries need to be evaluated more on what our eyes tell us instead of what the numbers tell us. If he broke 3 tackles and made two nice cutbacks and then outran several defenders...that tells us he is dynamic and could be a home run threat....that's info that means more to me than 5.X ypc....and it should mean more to you too.

I THINK we are agreeing more than disagreeing. Based on your way of stating the criteria, Brown should be upgraded rather than downgraded, right?His 80 yard run didn't come on a small sample size of runs--50--but on 134.

And his run DID include breaking 3 tackles, making a nice cutback and outrunning defenders.

I agree with you that if the sample size were small you would have to consider that run a statistical outlier and take that into account when looking at his ypc. But that's not the case here. In fact, over the course of his three years in the NFL he has had quite a few big plays of over 40 yards. I don't know how many, but if you search him in the NFL video files, you will find quite a few big plays.

What I see in Brown is a guy who as a rookie was held back by pass blocking, who was not well suited to the style of running (out of the shotgun, and who was slowed down by nagging injuries. If he can stay healthy, I think he will be a solid RB2. He should really benefit from Bruce Arian's offense, and he is the back who will be in the game catching dump off passes from Luck, when the team is down and having to pass. In PPR leagues, I think he will be great. In TD heavy leagues, I would down grade him because I think one of the other two backs, both bigger, will get a good share of red zone carries.

 

[Max Power]

I just picked up Brown in another league for what I think was a low price. I really wish the FBG Staff would chime in on this...

As a group they have him ranked as the #51 dynasty running back. BEHIND the likes of Jauquizz Rodgers, Willis McGahee, LeGarrette Blount and Issac Redman.

RB RANKING

Some staff even rank him BEHIND guys like Rashad Jennings and Bilal Powell. WHAT?!?!

Normally, I'd give the staff the benefit of the doubt, but I think they are totally missing the boat on this one. Unless they know something we all don't and just aren't sharing...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

New QB, new offense, Collie as the WR2, Rookie TE, new HC...I can find a lot of reasons I am not super high on him. He's worth a risk but folks seem to feel he is a shoe in for 1,000/10, I wouldn't assume Delone Carter will see little action either. How often will Indy be scoring TDs this year?

 

[Max Power]

New QB, new offense, Collie as the WR2, Rookie TE, new HC...I can find a lot of reasons I am not super high on him. He's worth a risk but folks seem to feel he is a shoe in for 1,000/10, I wouldn't assume Delone Carter will see little action either. How often will Indy be scoring TDs this year?

I understand some of those arguements, but I'd still say that the loss of Addai and addition of Luck bodes well for Brown.It's not like teams will have less respect for the passing game this year. Rookie Andrew luck is twice the player Curtis Painter or 40 year old Kerry Collins were. It's hard to picture Brown getting less than 200 touches this season, barring injury. 170 carries, 30 receptions almost seems like the floor for him in 2012. I'm not calling him a lock for RB#2 numbers this season, but to rank him outside the top 50 running backs seems foolish IMO. He averaged close to 10 points a game in PPR leagues once he started seeing the field (Weeks 5-17). No reason to think he wont see a 2-3 point a game bump this year now that he is the lead back. A RB who averages 12-13 points should at least be considered a low-mid RB2.

 

[todisco1]

New QB, new offense, Collie as the WR2, Rookie TE, new HC...I can find a lot of reasons I am not super high on him. He's worth a risk but folks seem to feel he is a shoe in for 1,000/10, I wouldn't assume Delone Carter will see little action either. How often will Indy be scoring TDs this year?

Brown had the worst QBs in the league last year. If you think Luck will be better than what Brown played with, then he has a shot to improve his #'s. Carter could be a threat - I've heard people say he is a better fit for the new system. But, he was awful last year. He could improve for sure, but at this point I think it's Brown's job to lose. I don't think Brown's a shoe-in for 1k and 10, but I think he has a decent shot at being a good #3 fantasy RB with #2 upside if things fall right for him.

 

[az_prof]

I just picked up Brown in another league for what I think was a low price. I really wish the FBG Staff would chime in on this...

As a group they have him ranked as the #51 dynasty running back. BEHIND the likes of Jauquizz Rodgers, Willis McGahee, LeGarrette Blount and Issac Redman.

RB RANKING

Some staff even rank him BEHIND guys like Rashad Jennings and Bilal Powell. WHAT?!?!

Normally, I'd give the staff the benefit of the doubt, but I think they are totally missing the boat on this one. Unless they know something we all don't and just aren't sharing...

I agree. FBG staff is missing the boat.As for the new offense, new OC, new QB argument AGAINST him, it strikes me that those are all arguments in his FAVOR.

The old offense was not a good fit for Brown. He was never a good runner out of the shotgun and when he got a chance to run behind a FB last year he did well. Plus, the old offense was pass first, pass second, pass third, and run as a change of pace. Finally, the old offense did not take advantage of Brown's very good pass catching ability.

I get the impression the new offense is going to feature the run more and we know it will use 2 TEs more. Brown is good at following his blocks so I see these changes as good. IND also improved the offensive line. And the change at QB is good for Brown. Manning never liked Brown--Addai was his buddy. And last year, the team's QB were not very good; Luck will be an improvement over what they had last year.

 

[Buck Stop]

Just took him in the 10th round of a PPR dynasty start up. I think he's a no brainer compared to the other RBs you usually find that late in a draft.

 

[beef]

As a group they have him ranked as the #51 dynasty running back. BEHIND the likes of Jauquizz Rodgers, Willis McGahee, LeGarrette Blount and Issac Redman.

RB RANKING

Some staff even rank him BEHIND guys like Rashad Jennings and Bilal Powell. WHAT?!?!

Normally, I'd give the staff the benefit of the doubt, but I think they are totally missing the boat on this one. Unless they know something we all don't and just aren't sharing...

I agree. FBG staff is missing the boat.

Agreed. Brown is ridiculous value and totally forgotten by most.

 

[todisco1]

Just took him in the 10th round of a PPR dynasty start up. I think he's a no brainer compared to the other RBs you usually find that late in a draft.

That's nice value.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

shhhh...I haven't got him everywhere yet....He's cheap enough that even if he completely busts, the risk is totally worth the potential reward here.

He is a great guy to have right now. I think hes a top 30 RB as of now and he only costs the value of a RB4 or RB5

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

There's been a few threads that have included him since the early portion of last year.

He was the lone bright spot on that offense last year. Still a lot of judging of him from his 1st 2 years in league -- where pass block held him back (not his versatile run/pass skillset).

Grab as RB3 and get your RB2 results. (I think as season approaches he won't be in that RB4-5 area...really not sure why he's there now as some have indicated)

Delone Carter is not a threat whatsoever if Brown's healthy. Brown is superior in every aspect.

 

[finito]

Pagano: Brown will be 'every-down back' Donald Brown, RB INDNews: Head coach Chuck Pagano said Wednesday that he expects running back Donald Brown to be an every-down back in the Colts' new offense. Pagano cited Brown's improved pass protection skills as a reason to keep him on the field. Pagano told CBSSports.com back in March that Brown was "capable" of being their best rushing weapon. "Donald's a real bright guy and he's got some home-run capabilities in him," Pagano said at the time. "He's strong, he's quick to hit the hole, he puts his foot in the ground, he's decisive and all those types of things."Analysis: Brown is essentially the best option they have on the roster right now after he ran for 645 yards on 134 carries (4.8 avg.) and five touchdowns last year, all of which were career-highs. In the five games where he had at least 14 carries, Brown totaled 405 of those rush yards (81 yards per game) and three of those touchdowns. Brown has some good ability and might be one of those rare running backs who routinely gets close to 20 touches per game. Questions about his O-line persist, as will issues involving whether or not he works at the goal line and if the Colts can even give him 15 carries per game, but he's still a candidate for a lot of work and that cannot be ignored. For now it's best to consider Brown a good No. 3 Fantasy running back worth a pick that should provide good value in Round 6 or 7. A good preseason would send his stock skyrocketing.

 

[zamboni]

Pagano: Brown will be 'every-down back' Donald Brown, RB INDNews: Head coach Chuck Pagano said Wednesday that he expects running back Donald Brown to be an every-down back in the Colts' new offense. Pagano cited Brown's improved pass protection skills as a reason to keep him on the field. Pagano told CBSSports.com back in March that Brown was "capable" of being their best rushing weapon. "Donald's a real bright guy and he's got some home-run capabilities in him," Pagano said at the time. "He's strong, he's quick to hit the hole, he puts his foot in the ground, he's decisive and all those types of things."Analysis: Brown is essentially the best option they have on the roster right now after he ran for 645 yards on 134 carries (4.8 avg.) and five touchdowns last year, all of which were career-highs. In the five games where he had at least 14 carries, Brown totaled 405 of those rush yards (81 yards per game) and three of those touchdowns. Brown has some good ability and might be one of those rare running backs who routinely gets close to 20 touches per game. Questions about his O-line persist, as will issues involving whether or not he works at the goal line and if the Colts can even give him 15 carries per game, but he's still a candidate for a lot of work and that cannot be ignored. For now it's best to consider Brown a good No. 3 Fantasy running back worth a pick that should provide good value in Round 6 or 7. A good preseason would send his stock skyrocketing.

Interesting, since just yesterday there was a clip that shows the RB situation is very much in the air. Shows how much you can't read into anything at this point:

Donald Brown: Indy's RB Depth Chart Not Set - 6/5/2012 8:28:56 AM Update: Colts running backs coach David Walker said the running back depth chart could be in flux this summer. "Donald (Brown) deserves to be the No. 1 back right now as we go through offseason training," he told NFL.com. "But we'll see how that unfolds as we get to camp and start hitting, playing against other people in the preseason. Everybody wants to be that guy, and we'll give everybody that opportunity to show us he can be that guy."Recommendation: Brown has largely been a first-round bust, but had an impressive 4.8 YPC last season and finally showed some explosiveness with five runs over 20 yards. He'll enter training camp at the top of the depth chart, but the Colts may use a committee system and it wouldn't be a surprise if a back lower on the depth chart (such as fifth-round pick Vick Ballard) emerged to win a large role.