What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Don't draft Aaron Rodgers, heres why (1 Viewer)

Maven

Maven

Footballguy
Analyst are telling everyone not to worry, Rodgers still a QB 2. I disagree, heres why:

Lets start with your projection for Adams? Does 1200 and 8TDs sound reasonable? Yes. He's not the greatest of athletes doesnt have that explosive downfield ability of Jordy. Also he's only a 2nd year player and will be going up against better corners.

Jordy Nelson finished with 1500 yards last season and 13 TDs.

Rodgers finished with 4300 yards in 2014 and 38 TDs.

Is it conceivable Rodgers will finish below 4000 yards this season? Yes.

Ok so what, hes still great?

Lets say he finishes 2015 with his 2010 stats?

3900 yds, 28 TDS 11 INT

Thats roughly 360 points.

That wouldve placed Rodgers at about QB 6-7 last year.

Now unless you believe Richard Rodgers is the next best thing or a committee of inexperienced guys will replace Jordy, how is Rodgers going to hit QB 2?

Don't draft Aaron Rodgers.

You have to pay QB 2 price and the chances he hits that are very slim.

Will he have a good year? Yes. Will he have a QB 2 year? No.

Therefore hes overvalued.

If you're a defense, why wouldn't you just double Cobb and make the inexperienced Montgomery and the unestablished 2nd year WR beat you?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Let's see, jordy Nelson goes down, and now the best QB in the NFL is gonna have a significant drop in stats?....not buying it

 
Pfft why can't you have Adams, Richard Rogers, Montgomery, Janis, Aberderis, Lacy, Starks all replace Nelson.

Rodgers is the perfect QB for spreading the ball around and not forcing something. Jordy got those yards because he got a few very long TDs last year that someone else could get or that is eatin up by smaller yardage gains.

Rodgers is too good to see much if any regression. I am not buying into anyone who says there is going to be a large regression because unlike others he will spread the ball around and still get the offense moving down the field.

 
Rodgers did just fine with guys like Jones, Jennings, and a 98 year old Driver. People said similar things when the names changed in the past.

Cut a couple hundred passing yards and 2-3 TD if you really want. But Rodgers should still be in the top grouping, even after cutting his numbers a shade.

 
Jordy had a lot of long receptions (60+ yard TDs) and those may be impossible to replace. But, like everyone else says, the numbers will be made up by committee. I think its a little hit for Rodgers but not enough for me to avoid one of the best QBs in the game.

 
Rodgers makes Jordy a better player more so than the other way around. Elite QB's in their primes are a lock for great production barring injury.

 
2010 Rodgers had a poor offensive line, got injured and missed parts of/entire games and had no run game for majority of the season, especially right after Grant got injured wk1. Not sure how that is his ceiling. Richard Rodgers also has the makings of a Bubba Franks 2.0 redzone target.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If you're a defense, why wouldn't you just double Cobb and make the inexperienced Montgomery and the unestablished 2nd year WR beat you?
Click to expand...
Because this is a staff that has drafted and cultivated Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb, etc. They don't miss on top 3 round receiving targets. The only one of those who wasn't productive was Terrance Murphy who flashed in preseason and had career ending neck injury thanks to Najeh Davenport.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Arodin said:
Don't draft Aaron Rodgers, here's why...

I want him to fall to me in the third!
Click to expand...
How many other guys that are about to draft with you also post here?

Rodgers is Rodgers because he makes everyone around him better. Thompson doesn't have many misses for ancillary help, as was mentioned earlier. Guys on the Chiefs, Jets, etc. don't have a ~10 round ADP jump in the span of like 2 days because of opportunity to have a potential future HOF QB throw to them.

 
Willink said:
2010 Rodgers had a poor offensive line, got injured and missed parts of/entire games and had no run game for majority of the season, especially right after Grant got injured wk1. Not sure how that is his ceiling. Richard Rodgers also has the makings of a Bubba Franks 2.0 redzone target.
Click to expand...
Never try to refer to someone positively and say they are Bubba Franks, that guy was a bum.

Rodgers has a lot more talent than Bubba and should be able to get up the field better hopefully become what Finley was supposed to be.

 
I counted like 3 sentences in the OP that I actually agree with, which is pretty hilarious considering the over-the-top authoritative tone throughout.

 
Willink said:
If you're a defense, why wouldn't you just double Cobb and make the inexperienced Montgomery and the unestablished 2nd year WR beat you?
Click to expand...
Because this is a staff that has drafted and cultivated Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb, etc. They don't miss on top 3 round receiving targets. The only one of those who wasn't productive was Terrance Murphy who flashed in preseason and had career ending neck injury thanks to Najeh Davenport.
Click to expand...
Did Najeh poop on his neck?

 
On a per game basis he has finished as the #1 or #2 QB is something like 8 straight seasons. Sure eventually that streak has to end but even with the Nelson injury the margin between Rodgers and every other QB aside from Luck is still too big to draft Rodgers as anything later than the #2 QB off the board.

 
Rodgers-Nelson is like Culpepper-Moss. Hopefully for Rodgers owners, Cobb can carry him like Jordy. But wouldn't be surprised to see Tolzien get a shot at some point this year.

 
Meatwad Reloaded said:
lol...I stopped reading right after you said Adams is not as fast as Jordy.

They both ran a 4.5. Do a little research before you spout off.
Click to expand...
Jordy ran a 4.51 , Adams a 4.56. BOOM!

lol No, but what I really meant was quickness off release and line to stack corners for big explosive plays and Jordys ability to just run away from defensive players. I dont believe Adams holds that skill set.

 
Another factor that will help Rodgers in losing Nelson . . . now is a way better time than losing him in the middle of the season. They have more time to figure out how to attack things with several weeks to prepare. In the middle of the season, it would probably take a few weeks for things to shake out, and Rodgers numbers would likely have dipped in the interim.

 
Maven said:
Analyst are telling everyone not to worry, Rodgers still a QB 2. I disagree, heres why:

Lets start with your projection for Adams? Does 1200 and 8TDs sound reasonable? Yes. He's not the greatest of athletes doesnt have that explosive downfield ability of Jordy. Also he's only a 2nd year player and will be going up against better corners.

Jordy Nelson finished with 1500 yards last season and 13 TDs.

Rodgers finished with 4300 yards in 2014 and 38 TDs.

Is it conceivable Rodgers will finish below 4000 yards this season? Yes.

Ok so what, hes still great?

Lets say he finishes 2015 with his 2010 stats?

3900 yds, 28 TDS 11 INT

Thats roughly 360 points.

That wouldve placed Rodgers at about QB 6-7 last year.

Now unless you believe Richard Rodgers is the next best thing or a committee of inexperienced guys will replace Jordy, how is Rodgers going to hit QB 2?

Don't draft Aaron Rodgers.

You have to pay QB 2 price and the chances he hits that are very slim.

Will he have a good year? Yes. Will he have a QB 2 year? No.

Therefore hes overvalued.

If you're a defense, why wouldn't you just double Cobb and make the inexperienced Montgomery and the unestablished 2nd year WR beat you?
Click to expand...
This thread is ridiculous. If it hits two pages they should burn down the SP.

 
Never mind all this "fall to me in the 3rd" stuff- what percentage of your auction $cap$ are you willing to spend on him?

I went 30% last year in a 6pt/td league. Not sure I would do the same this season, although he still has weapons.

 
Maven said:
Now unless you believe Richard Rodgers is the next best thing or a committee of inexperienced guys will replace Jordy, how is Rodgers going to hit QB 2?
Click to expand...
Your formulas don't really apply to Rodgers who is excellent at getting the football to receivers.

Adams is good with routes and has good hands.

I don't see a dropoff.

The Packers may not win a game or 2 in the closing minutes that they would have with Jordy, but for Rodgers' fantasy value it's really not significant.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

T
Travdogg's positional rankings (summer edition)
2
Replies
67
Views
2K
wgoldsph
wgoldsph
T
Travdogg's positional rankings from week 7 onward
2
Replies
50
Views
3K
BobbyLayne
BobbyLayne
T
Travdogg's post FA 2 round mock draft
Replies
39
Views
1K
rockaction
rockaction

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top