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Well I own him in two dynasty leagues and I don't feel super comfortable with him as my RB2.......(I've been spoiled, I want #1's at all my starting positions). I have a feeling he'll bounce back in a big way, but I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round of a redraft.
i see a middle ground. Tampa's said there going to spread the carries around next year. He's a decent rb but don't think he's top 10 - although the rb's are pretty weak these days so maybe if i looked at a list he'd be close to it.
Todd gurley
I've always felt this way. I'd draft him if the price was right, but I am relatively certain someone is going to overpay for him in 2014 redrafts. He was good enough that he had a couple huge games against bad defenses thanks to a ton of touches his rookie year, in Jerome Harrison fashion, but he's not special enough to be an RB1 with less than 20 touches a game. Without Schiano to give him 80%+ of the RB touches, I think he falls into the RB18-24 range on a PPG basis, but I suspect he'll play 16 games next year and net himself like an RB12-18 finish with maybe 200-240 carries and 40 receptions to go with 4.0 ypc.Vector said:
3 year window? There are plenty of guys I'd take over Martin since Martin could easily be overshadowed next year and be yesterday's news in 2015. In absolutely no particular order: the six guys you mentioned, Alfred Morris, Spiller, Mathews, Forte, Foster, Bell, Stacy, maybe Murray and Tate. And to be honest, I'd rather take another position and just take a few shots in the dark later in the draft on young guys like Lamar Miller, Ingram, Ball, Lattimore, and Pierce.
I'm going to take a shot in the dark and guess that you are not his biggest fan...? Most dynasty rankings I follow (which all have been updated in Jan/Feb) currently have Martin as no.3. Pundits have him between 2 and 7. So I would definitely take him before a lot of the guys you mention - even if I did not believe in him I would pick him up purely for market value in order to flip him for a WR or something.
Take out his 1 huge game vs the raiders and here are his numbers.
So that is 16.4 point per game ppr and 13.4 without ppr on average? That is worth a top ten dynasty pick. Even though it isn't that cut and dry.
And keep in mind that those numbers take out his best game as a pro. Perhaps we should do the same with Charles and his 4 TD game against Oakland? What is this, figure skating judging?
If you're a top 5 player as a rb, u shouldn't average 4.1 ypc over 21 games. That's not cherry picking. Martin averaged 10 ypc that game....it's an outlier.
Thank you. I've pointed this out in the past. People act like he turned a corner, but really he had two good games like weeks 8 and 9 and then kept plodding his way to huge numbers thanks to Schiano giving him 20 carries and 4 receptions a game. That's not going to happen in 2014. The workload won't be there to prop up those stat lines.
Group think is funny like that. If you vary too wildly from the consensus you'll lose credibility. Fortunately, I'm not worried about that. Just trying to win. He'd be top 10 on my list, too, if Schiano was still around.
Save your time you won't convince him. He clearly doesn't like Martin, he cherry picked Charles best year as a pro to compare to a guy who has had one full year in the league. He had to take away Martin's best game to pad his stats, and lastly he is comparing real football to fantasy football. In real football does a top 5 pick average 4.1 yards per carry, probably not, but in fantasy football I don't care is the guy averages 3.0 yards per carry if he holds his job and gets enough touches to average 12+ points a game. Not to mention we have no idea how Lovie Smith and the new Tampa coaches will use him.
My point is that if you don't view him as a 10 ten, you probably won't get him anyway. Say you have him as the 18th back or something. Chances are somebody in a 12 man league is going to snag him before you would.
Jump to conclusions much? 1) I own Doug Martin in 2 leagues
1. Just because you own him doesn't mean you love him or even like himtdmills said:
I do like Martin. It's possible to like a player, but also be objective. That's the difference between being a fan and a fanatic. It's also the difference of saying "cherry picking" vs looking at 21 of 22 career games in the NFL or rather 478 touches. That's a large enough sample size to determine concerns of Doug Martin as a top 5 dynasty RB.
We can enter into the record that you have only seen 7 of his 22 professional games if you like.tdmills said:
I'd say strong... Strong to fairly strong.
They are actually not if you take away 25 carries for 251 yards. The averages dip even further when you take away another 24 carries for 138 yards. Think about it.
Not all of it...it started to get a little crazy so I just skipped to the end.Did you not read the discussion above?
I'm surprised no one has really discussed Tedford yet.
I know it is scorned here to do that, but sometimes you've got to use a little judgment rather than being so black and white. Is it possible that Oakland was just playing awful defense that day? Is removing one game where the defense was hapless the same as removing Peterson's three longest carries across 16 games? Of course not. That's a pretty silly assertion.Did you not read the discussion above?
I always get a chuckle when others manipulate stats in this way to support their beliefs. This one was particularly amusing given the magnitude of what was being taken away, 251 yards!!! Its like the "take that away 80 yard run from CJ Spiller" talk. Good backs break big ones from time to time. Its part of what makes their averages good.
By taking away 25 carries for 251 yards, they essentially took away Doug Martin's 3 biggest runs of the year (since the rest of the game was below average). Adrian Peterson had pretty good stats last year averaging 4.5 ish yards per carry. Take away his 3 biggest runs from last year and his average dips to 3.9 yards per carry.
I have no problem with the opinion that Doug Martin is not special. But when you use stats that do not support that opinion and manipulate them in such a drastic way so that it does, that I find to be quite a stretch.
I took out 1 game...not best carries. Looking at 24 of 25 nfl games isn't Cherry pickingDid you not read the discussion above?
I always get a chuckle when others manipulate stats in this way to support their beliefs. This one was particularly amusing given the magnitude of what was being taken away, 251 yards!!! Its like the "take that away 80 yard run from CJ Spiller" talk. Good backs break big ones from time to time. Its part of what makes their averages good.
By taking away 25 carries for 251 yards, they essentially took away Doug Martin's 3 biggest runs of the year (since the rest of the game was below average). Adrian Peterson had pretty good stats last year averaging 4.5 ish yards per carry. Take away his 3 biggest runs from last year and his average dips to 3.9 yards per carry.
I have no problem with the opinion that Doug Martin is not special. But when you use stats that do not support that opinion and manipulate them in such a drastic way so that it does, that I find to be quite a stretch.
If someone had taken the three biggest runs from a guy from three different games on a player you like, chances are you would have cried foul...I took out 1 game...not best carries. Looking at 24 of 25 nfl games isn't Cherry pickingDid you not read the discussion above?
I always get a chuckle when others manipulate stats in this way to support their beliefs. This one was particularly amusing given the magnitude of what was being taken away, 251 yards!!! Its like the "take that away 80 yard run from CJ Spiller" talk. Good backs break big ones from time to time. Its part of what makes their averages good.
By taking away 25 carries for 251 yards, they essentially took away Doug Martin's 3 biggest runs of the year (since the rest of the game was below average). Adrian Peterson had pretty good stats last year averaging 4.5 ish yards per carry. Take away his 3 biggest runs from last year and his average dips to 3.9 yards per carry.
I have no problem with the opinion that Doug Martin is not special. But when you use stats that do not support that opinion and manipulate them in such a drastic way so that it does, that I find to be quite a stretch.
You in effect removed his 3 best runs for the entire year. The rest of the game was ho-hum except for the fact that he broke 3 huge runs.I took out 1 game...not best carries. Looking at 24 of 25 nfl games isn't Cherry pickingDid you not read the discussion above?
I always get a chuckle when others manipulate stats in this way to support their beliefs. This one was particularly amusing given the magnitude of what was being taken away, 251 yards!!! Its like the "take that away 80 yard run from CJ Spiller" talk. Good backs break big ones from time to time. Its part of what makes their averages good.
By taking away 25 carries for 251 yards, they essentially took away Doug Martin's 3 biggest runs of the year (since the rest of the game was below average). Adrian Peterson had pretty good stats last year averaging 4.5 ish yards per carry. Take away his 3 biggest runs from last year and his average dips to 3.9 yards per carry.
I have no problem with the opinion that Doug Martin is not special. But when you use stats that do not support that opinion and manipulate them in such a drastic way so that it does, that I find to be quite a stretch.
I thought when he was drafted he was a very good, all-around back. I expected a good rookie year but he surprised with how good he was, especially his monster game.
Did I think Jerome Harrison was great? No, but I don’t believe that stats tell the whole picture.I know it is scorned here to do that, but sometimes you've got to use a little judgment rather than being so black and white. Is it possible that Oakland was just playing awful defense that day? Is removing one game where the defense was hapless the same as removing Peterson's three longest carries across 16 games? Of course not. That's a pretty silly assertion.Did you not read the discussion above?
I always get a chuckle when others manipulate stats in this way to support their beliefs. This one was particularly amusing given the magnitude of what was being taken away, 251 yards!!! Its like the "take that away 80 yard run from CJ Spiller" talk. Good backs break big ones from time to time. Its part of what makes their averages good.
By taking away 25 carries for 251 yards, they essentially took away Doug Martin's 3 biggest runs of the year (since the rest of the game was below average). Adrian Peterson had pretty good stats last year averaging 4.5 ish yards per carry. Take away his 3 biggest runs from last year and his average dips to 3.9 yards per carry.
I have no problem with the opinion that Doug Martin is not special. But when you use stats that do not support that opinion and manipulate them in such a drastic way so that it does, that I find to be quite a stretch.
Just as some are simply looking for confirmation bias for how bad/mediocre a player is, some owners can be blind to their players' shortcomings. I play a lot of redrafts so I have to rethink my prejudices every year. There was a time where I wouldn't touch CJ Spiller, but I'm excited about the value he'll likely present in 2014. I was all about Ridley in 2012 but avoided him like the plague last year. The point is that you might want to re-think your loyalties. Do you remember Jerome Harrison? No. Well, he once put up 286/3 on a crappy KC defense. You think that skewed his numbers or that was just a great player making great plays and no one should consider the possibility that it was an aberration?
No one is saying you have to accept that Martin's game was an aberration. Just consider his numbers without it. We often confuse heavy workloads with talent. Martin absolutely has the heavy workload to prop up his totals, but is he really a special talent? From what I've seen, no. Maybe you like what you see. Maybe you just like the totals. I'm not sure.
Given the rest of his games that one looks like an outlier. Removing that game from analysis doesn't take away from what he did either. Remember this was a dysfunctional Raiders defense that had given up 172 yard rushing to Reggie Bush earlier in the year, double what he had in every game except one of 2012.You in effect removed his 3 best runs for the entire year. The rest of the game was ho-hum except for the fact that he broke 3 huge runs.I took out 1 game...not best carries. Looking at 24 of 25 nfl games isn't Cherry pickingDid you not read the discussion above?
I always get a chuckle when others manipulate stats in this way to support their beliefs. This one was particularly amusing given the magnitude of what was being taken away, 251 yards!!! Its like the "take that away 80 yard run from CJ Spiller" talk. Good backs break big ones from time to time. Its part of what makes their averages good.
By taking away 25 carries for 251 yards, they essentially took away Doug Martin's 3 biggest runs of the year (since the rest of the game was below average). Adrian Peterson had pretty good stats last year averaging 4.5 ish yards per carry. Take away his 3 biggest runs from last year and his average dips to 3.9 yards per carry.
I have no problem with the opinion that Doug Martin is not special. But when you use stats that do not support that opinion and manipulate them in such a drastic way so that it does, that I find to be quite a stretch.
What you did is cherry picking at its best.
