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Draft Capital And How We're Feeling About Pierce And Spiller (1 Viewer)

rockaction

Footballguy
So, we saw what happens to guys that flash that don't have draft capital. I forget who I was arguing with this about regarding Carter, but Breece Hall is now a Jet, and that really caps (to put it mildly) Carter's output. Score one for me, and for draft capital. I wish I could remember who was giving me such static about it. 

So we argued about this all of last year. Now that we've seen ETN get drafted ahead of J. Robinson and Hall go over Carter, how comfortable are you guys with Day Three capital and UDFA guys as dependable assets? 

How are we playing it this year in a weaker draft? 

 
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I think a lot of the 4th round and later RBs landed in decent spots at least where they are either one injury or one mediocre veteran away from getting a starting spot.

Thats valuable in the second round of rookie drafts as mid-season out of nowhere production makes for a great shot in the arm for contenders or trade bait for non-contenders.

However as you imply we need to temper expectations - if Ekeler goes down and Spiller comes in and finishes the season with 1,250 yards and 8 TDs with the volume,  it doesn’t mean the Chargers do not bring in a first or second round RB next season to replace him.

I’ve seen so many owners pay firsts for guys like Zach Stacey, James Robinson or Marlon Mack and I cringe every time.

 
Yes! Please continue to do this, talking about how it's totally worth it, because if this scrub RB turns into Arian Foster it's totally worth it, as you don't account for the decade worth of mid 1st rounders you wasted on RB in previous years. 

Please continue to talk about opportunity, even tho opportunity tends to change in a season, especially with RB, who get 4 seasons, and then discarded. 

 
Yes! Please continue to do this, talking about how it's totally worth it, because if this scrub RB turns into Arian Foster it's totally worth it, as you don't account for the decade worth of mid 1st rounders you wasted on RB in previous years. 
I clearly said second round and I'm talking about guys like Spiller, Allgier, White or Pierce as they have a clear path to playing time in Year 1. At the very least you can flip guys like that for first rounders in some cases - and sometimes they do impress enough to hold the job for another season or two. In the mid-late second round it's not like the WRs, QBs or TEs are sure things either. 

 
Yes! Please continue to do this, talking about how it's totally worth it, because if this scrub RB turns into Arian Foster it's totally worth it, as you don't account for the decade worth of mid 1st rounders you wasted on RB in previous years. 

Please continue to talk about opportunity, even tho opportunity tends to change in a season, especially with RB, who get 4 seasons, and then discarded. 
I'd laugh if I wasn't so guilty of this. Would love to say I've learned my lesson but... SPILLER TIME!!!  :bag:

 
I clearly said second round and I'm talking about guys like Spiller, Allgier, White or Pierce as they have a clear path to playing time in Year 1. At the very least you can flip guys like that for first rounders in some cases - and sometimes they do impress enough to hold the job for another season or two. In the mid-late second round it's not like the WRs, QBs or TEs are sure things either. 
I wasn't reacting to anything you said brah. 

I'm not too happy with this thread, people in my leagues are getting smarter, and not reaching for backs as much as they used to. 

 
I'm not too happy with this thread, people in my leagues are getting smarter, and not reaching for backs as much as they used to. 
I don't think that will change much - RB scarcity is a thing. We have to look back as far as last season to see guys like Michael Carter and Trey Sermon going in the Top 8 last season - I mean those were mistakes but it's not like guys that grabbed Terrance Marshall or Rondale Moore or Amari Rodgers in the late first are all that happy either.

 
I forget who I was arguing with this about regarding Carter, but Breece Hall is now a Jet, and that really caps (to put it mildly) his output.
I hear ya, Rock. I’m probably more optimistic about Hall given his all-around skill set and the pieces they’ve put around Zach, but Carter isn’t going away and Wilson is not apt to check down that much.

 
Dameon Pierce is going to see plenty of action this season and the fact is he led the NCAA to my knowledge in YAC which will be good playing for Houston. 

Still i would say 1,000 yds rushing and maybe 6 TDs if he's lucky. Houston won't be running the clock out much and he hasn't shown true ability catching the ball so I'm not sure he is forecast as a 3-down RB. 

Spiller was taken #123 overall but he lands with a potential Stud-QB and lot of weapons at WR and an improving OL that has had "draft capital" poured into it in '21 and '22 with Darrisaw and Zion Johnson this season. 

-Also the Chargers drafted a guy named Jamaree Salyer out of Georgia who will be another OG for them, I know they have talent at RB already but there is always room for more and while Spiller is not going to be the primary ball carrier there, in fact he might always be part of a 2-back system so keep that in mind. 

Pierce will have to fight for his yards where Spiller is fighting for touches, big difference in how you want to look down the road with these 2 RBs. 

 
If you don't "reach" for RB, who you gonna take?  Good luck with those 4 stud WRs sitting on your bench and no startable RBs.

 
So, we saw what happens to guys that flash that don't have draft capital
Do we count second round picks as draft capital?

Because I was heavy into Tre Mason when they drafted Todd Gurley and remember feeling stung when Jaguars signed Chris Ivory when Yeldon was entering year two.

Meanwhile we got guys like Aaron Jones and Ekeler who maintained just fine in addition to third round guys like Kamara and Montgomery.

Everyone likes draft capital or money allocation on RB's because it does indicate commitment but I'm IMO there is to much gold to be found at this position to just say I'm going to run from a guy because he was a 3-5th round pick.

 
There's no doubt that, in general,  the higher a player is drafted the more the team has invested in him which usually means he'll get more of an opportunity.   The problem I have is that fantasy analysts tend to group players into broad, kind of arbitrary, buckets - R1,R2,R3,R4, etc. or even worse day1, day2, day3 when it's really a sliding scale.   For example, Brian Robinson was drafted with a round 3 compensatory pick and Dameon Pierce was drafted at 4.02.  How much draft capital difference is there really between those two?   I've already seen fantasy analysts upgrade Robinson because he was day 2 and downgrade Pierce because he was day 3.  That seems like really bad process to me.  

 
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There's no doubt that, in general,  the higher a player is drafted the more the team has invested in him which usually means he'll get more of an opportunity.   The problem I have is that fantasy analysts tend to group players into broad, kind of arbitrary, buckets - R1,R2,R3,R4, etc. or even worse day1, day2, day3 when it's really a sliding scale.   For example, Brian Robinson was drafted with a round 3 compensatory pick and Dameon Pierce was drafted at 4.02.  How much draft capital difference is there really between those two?   I've already seen fantasy analysts upgrade Robinson because he was day 2 and downgrade Pierce because he was day 3.  That seems like really bad process to me.  
And we don’t know that if Houston had the Washington pick that they wouldn’t still go with Pierce over Robinson.

 
Do we count second round picks as draft capital?

Because I was heavy into Tre Mason when they drafted Todd Gurley and remember feeling stung when Jaguars signed Chris Ivory when Yeldon was entering year two.

Meanwhile we got guys like Aaron Jones and Ekeler who maintained just fine in addition to third round guys like Kamara and Montgomery.

Everyone likes draft capital or money allocation on RB's because it does indicate commitment but I'm IMO there is to much gold to be found at this position to just say I'm going to run from a guy because he was a 3-5th round pick.
Mid round backs, I want to look at them as players, as athletes especially. I usually want to have a target or two among the later round guys. 

I will always have RB that I'm just going to avoid, because I don't like their athletic profile. When backs that I'm not impressed with get drafted to a good opportunity, it's usually an avoid for me. 

I would have taken Troy Sermon if he fell, but the excitement level meant I could pretty much ignore him.

I was more sweating if I could get Rhamondre later in the draft. 

The value at RB can often come from people who see no immediate opportunity. Maybe that is Zamir White this year, that kind of player. The way the wind is blowing, both top Raider backs will be gone next year. 

 
IMHO NFL 4th round picks are more similar to 3rds than they are to 5ths. There is no perfect dividing line but everything gets split into day 1 day 2 day 3 and I consider that absurdly bad process masquerading as "analytics". 

I don't know anybody reputable that says draft capital isn't huge. Of course it is. That doesn't mean outliers don't hit *or* that they are a bad bet per se.

I suppose Spiller and Pierce will both sneak onto late 1st rookie drafts and I will be avoiding. Not because of DC but because I don't like either one.

 
Man, my eyes glaze over when it comes to evaluating draft capital.  To me, the new normal is, if a team drafts an RB in the fourth round it tells me either, (1) they need an RB, or (2), the talent is too good to pass on. All teams have needs in the draft, and it's easiest to punt on RBs (no punt intended).

 
Top 2 round DC is a big difference, imo. That typically gets a couple of years (RoJo, Sanders). 3rd round and later, it's up to if the player is able to seize the lead role and tell the team that they don't need to look at another RB (Kamara, Hunt).

Singletary/Moss/Cook, Gibson/Robinson, Carter/Hall. If Pierce is just OK, the Texans may take another RB with an earlier pick next year. Spiller is going to be given the chance to be the backup to Ekeler. The Chargers have tried to fill that role unsuccessfully the past couple of years (Kelley, Rountree).

I'll take an earlier shot on Pierce because he has a chance to take the lead role whereas Spiller falls into the injury-away category but Pierce will be in the sell-high bucket as Carter was before the draft.

 
Marauder said:
There's no doubt that, in general,  the higher a player is drafted the more the team has invested in him which usually means he'll get more of an opportunity.   The problem I have is that fantasy analysts tend to group players into broad, kind of arbitrary, buckets - R1,R2,R3,R4, etc. or even worse day1, day2, day3 when it's really a sliding scale.   For example, Brian Robinson was drafted with a round 3 compensatory pick and Dameon Pierce was drafted at 4.02.  How much draft capital difference is there really between those two?   I've already seen fantasy analysts upgrade Robinson because he was day 2 and downgrade Pierce because he was day 3.  That seems like really bad process to me.  


The article I posted has it by pick so you don't get arbitrary distinctions. 

 
The article I posted has it by pick so you don't get arbitrary distinctions. 
Not sure how many comp picks get added in a given year (without looking closer) but I went with pick #104 for the equivalent of 4.02, which is where I thought I remembered Carter going. The odds there for an RB2 season are ~16.x%, which is basically 6 to 1. 

If I draft two of these types of RBs each year, I will hit once every 3 years. But contrary to my first post above, the (very) early returns are showing Pierce and Spiller as mid to late 2nd round picks. I have seen people post rookie drafts where one or the other had fell to the 3rd (that might be silly). 

Well, from a franchise capital POV, a late 2nd or early 3rd is worth something in the neighborhood of 5/300 Franchise Points*, whereas the "reach into the 1st for Sermon/Carter" is more like 20/300 Franchise Points. The first is spending 1/60th of my assets on a 1/6 dart throw. Versus the second where it is 1/15. To throw 6 darts I would be spending 40% of my franchise value. Good way to go insolvent.

But in the first scenario, it is a slam dunk. 1/60 and 6 dart throws takes 1/10 or 10%. If you are only taking 2 per year you are only giving up 3.3% of franchise value each year spread out over time. You *should* have plenty of other assets that outgrow that small price during that time.

Or just acquire picks and take all 6 dart throws in one draft. Pierre Strong. Zamir White. Dameon Pierce. Isaiah Spiller. Tyrion Davis-Price. Brian Robinson. 10% or 30 Franchise Points all on the table at once. 

When one of them hits you break even. But this isn't an exact science as much as we try. 3rds and late 2nds that don't pan out really don't mean squat. But when they hit it is profitable. 

Everything is about pot odds. We should be trying to take as many dart throws as we can possibly and reasonably afford. Do WRs at 4.02 hit at a rate that represents a value gained advantage to one's roster? Really? If you told me they hit there at 19% over the 16% for RBs, should I care? Is that enough to say "don't *ever* draft a RB taken there regardless of what scrub WR might be on the board?" Or QB or TE or vet or whatever.

Anyway TLDR people point at 16% and say that is a bad bet. Well not if you can afford to keep spinning the wheel.

*part of our FFPC thread conversations about the Hindery charts and quantifying an entire team in such a fashion. I have written a lot about it. 

 
I realized I used a lazy pronoun in the first OP. It "caps Carter's value, to say the least..." is what I meant to say. 

 
rockaction said:
How are we playing it this year in a weaker draft? 
personally, if I had draft picks this year (which I mostly don’t, except for a single 5th), I would be evaluating the lesser tier RBs to see who can catch the ball. IMO, the value in this years draft will be the RBs who have a shot at a 3rd down role over the “next in line” / breather backs.

In redraft, hey, gimme those next in line lottery tickets all day. But spending picks on them is a little silly unless they’re your own guy’s handcuff, IMO.

TL:DR - you’ll be more likely to get value out of a PPR receiving back over time than one of the depth backs a team drafted late. 

 
I play mostly in .5 PPRs, which takes me a ways from full PPRs, but how often do you want to be starting a 3rd down back? Depth in crisis, sure, but all else being equal, I would rather take a guy I think has a 1 in 4 chance of being a 3 down starter than a guy I think has a 50/50 chance of being his team's 3rd down back.    

 
I didn't like Pierce, Spiller, or any of the rd4 RBs that much before the draft, which makes them easy fades compared to the 2nd round WRs who I do at least kinda like (Wan'Dale is looking like he'll have the latest ADP of those). Probably also put them behind McBride. It's a closer call once we get to the 2nd round WRs who I don't much like (Metchie, A Pierce, Thornton), or the rd3 WRs.

Mid to late 2nd round is looking like a spot to trade out of, up to get one of the rd2 WRs I like or down because there are a whole bunch of guys who I value fairly similarly and I can get one later.

 
Nothing new to say here, but as Rock alluded to up front, I’m going to keep Michael Carter in the back of my mind when drafting any of these day 2/3/UDFA guys.

All of them have talent or they wouldn’t have been drafted, and some have more opportunity than others. But unless they really explode this year, I’d be hesitant about valuing them too highly beyond this year as they can be easily replaced and/or plopped into an RBBC. Draft capital does matter in several cases - if Carter was drafted in round 2 last year, I think the Jets may have given some pause as to taking another RB in Hall in the 2nd again. Perhaps they would have taken Hall anyway if they loved him that much, but it almost certainly would haven been a different conversation for team brass.

 
So on the flip side James Cook wasn’t considered one of the top RBs in most consensus rankings - does his second round draft capital move him up? While it doesn’t guarantee the lead back role in Buffalo it likely means he’ll get the opportunity.

 
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So on the flip side James Cook wasn’t considered one of the top RBs in most consensus rankings - does his second round draft capital move him up? While it doesn’t guarantee the lead back role in Buffalo it likely means he’ll get the opportunity.
Cook might be in play with a late 1st, but man he sure feels like fools gold.  

 
Cook might be in play with a late 1st, but man he sure feels like fools gold.  
I’d like to trust Buffalo on their RB talent evaluation, but then again they were really high on 3rd round pick Zack Moss. Cook intrigues me with his skill set for that offense, but I’m not going to reach for him.

 
I’d like to trust Buffalo on their RB talent evaluation, but then again they were really high on 3rd round pick Zack Moss. Cook intrigues me with his skill set for that offense, but I’m not going to reach for him.
What would you consider being a reach?

 
I’d like to trust Buffalo on their RB talent evaluation, but then again they were really high on 3rd round pick Zack Moss. Cook intrigues me with his skill set for that offense, but I’m not going to reach for him.
What would you consider being a reach?
Honestly haven’t done enough research yet to make a clear determination - just a gut feel at this point.

 
This is incredible.

Shows FF draft odds of every player by draft fantasy draft pick.

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Adeiko_FF@Adeiko_FF

Adding to this, this table shows the odds of Y player being available at X pick on rookie drafts.

----------------

Yechiel Kops@YechielKops

Replying to

@Adeiko_FF

This is awesome. Thank you

 
Also gotta keep in mind that some of these guys drop into round 3&4 because of the value at other positions in the draft.   It’s not just about fantasy but also about the real NFL draft and if positions are deep then other positions get devalued in the real draft. 

 
Also gotta keep in mind that some of these guys drop into round 3&4 because of the value at other positions in the draft.   It’s not just about fantasy but also about the real NFL draft and if positions are deep then other positions get devalued in the real draft. 
Yes - the RB position is indeed valued much more highly by fantasy teams than by most NFL teams.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Dameon Pierce is going to see plenty of action this season and the fact is he led the NCAA to my knowledge in YAC which will be good playing for Houston. 

Still i would say 1,000 yds rushing and maybe 6 TDs if he's lucky. Houston won't be running the clock out much and he hasn't shown true ability catching the ball so I'm not sure he is forecast as a 3-down RB. 

Spiller was taken #123 overall but he lands with a potential Stud-QB and lot of weapons at WR and an improving OL that has had "draft capital" poured into it in '21 and '22 with Darrisaw and Zion Johnson this season. 

-Also the Chargers drafted a guy named Jamaree Salyer out of Georgia who will be another OG for them, I know they have talent at RB already but there is always room for more and while Spiller is not going to be the primary ball carrier there, in fact he might always be part of a 2-back system so keep that in mind. 

Pierce will have to fight for his yards where Spiller is fighting for touches, big difference in how you want to look down the road with these 2 RBs. 
I don't think the Chargers have Darrisaw.  He went to Minnesota.  

 
I play mostly in .5 PPRs, which takes me a ways from full PPRs, but how often do you want to be starting a 3rd down back? Depth in crisis, sure, but all else being equal, I would rather take a guy I think has a 1 in 4 chance of being a 3 down starter than a guy I think has a 50/50 chance of being his team's 3rd down back.    
100% this.

I like to carry one of those 3rd down back depth crisis guys just in case, but one is enough.

 
So on the flip side James Cook wasn’t considered one of the top RBs in most consensus rankings - does his second round draft capital move him up? While it doesn’t guarantee the lead back role in Buffalo it likely means he’ll get the opportunity.
This doesn't mean a ton but before I saw this blurb I was already thinking Cook will be the 3rd down back with some early down work mixed in. Not bad but worth a late 1st? Probably not. 

********Bills general manager Brandon Beane said the team views RB James Cook as a "sub back." 

Beane added that Cook's skill set is similar to J.D. McKissic's. McKissic, of course, agreed to sign with Buffalo this offseason before changing course and re-signing with the Commanders. Beans and the Bills were apparently dead set on filling the pass-catching role in their backfield, taking Cook in the second round of the 2022 draft. Cook, who had 67 catches and 727 yards in 46 games at Georgia, deflates the fantasy upside of Devin Singletary, who emerged as an every-down back in the final weeks of the 2021 season. Beane said Cook could "handle carries too," opening the possibility of a even split in the Bills backfield this year. ********

RELATED: 

Devin Singletary

SOURCE: Kevin Cole on Twitter

May 3, 2022, 10:05 AM ET

Also gotta keep in mind that some of these guys drop into round 3&4 because of the value at other positions in the draft.   It’s not just about fantasy but also about the real NFL draft and if positions are deep then other positions get devalued in the real draft. 
Yes, this gets left out of draft capital discussion most of the time. That chart in the OP+1 is fantastic, though, as it cuts through all that with 20 years of supporting data. However, @rockaction, one other thing that gets left out is that the paradigm is shifting. The methodology in the article you posted doesn't get much better, but it is missing the (hypothetical) change over time of how clubs view RBs. Everybody *seems* to agree that the position is becoming more and more devalued. What I would like to see is that same chart pared down to say 5 year windows and then compare the windows to each other. "Is devaluation of RBs reflected in lower hit rates at pick x over time?" 

If I had the underlying data set I could do it in a matter of minutes. Most of us could. Then display it as a heat map of change or something. 

 
100% this.

I like to carry one of those 3rd down back depth crisis guys just in case, but one is enough.
Also I don't typically draft that 3rd down crisis guy as a rookie, I pick them up for free off waivers because there are always several of these guys out there. Don't need to spend rookie picks on them.

 
This doesn't mean a ton but before I saw this blurb I was already thinking Cook will be the 3rd down back with some early down work mixed in. Not bad but worth a late 1st? Probably not. 

********Bills general manager Brandon Beane said the team views RB James Cook as a "sub back." 

Beane added that Cook's skill set is similar to J.D. McKissic's. McKissic, of course, agreed to sign with Buffalo this offseason before changing course and re-signing with the Commanders. Beans and the Bills were apparently dead set on filling the pass-catching role in their backfield, taking Cook in the second round of the 2022 draft. Cook, who had 67 catches and 727 yards in 46 games at Georgia, deflates the fantasy upside of Devin Singletary, who emerged as an every-down back in the final weeks of the 2021 season. Beane said Cook could "handle carries too," opening the possibility of a even split in the Bills backfield this year. ********
Well generally speaking I do agree with Catbird's position of not targeting 3rd down backs over potential feature backs but in this case his skill set meshes very well with Buffalo's offense and I think he's likely a better inside runner than the initial glance would lead us to believe. It seems the Bills have been trying to move past Singeltary for a number of years now - between drafting Moss and sniffing around on available veteran RBs.

I get the whole "not worth a first" arguments - but who are we taking in his stead? As I pointed out earlier in this thread, it's not like late first WRs always pan out either. I'm starting to see Cook as one of the biggest upside plays in the 1.11-2.02 range of this draft. He's also "flashy" which psychologically could help inflate his value in the trade market if he breaks some big plays in pre-season or early in-season.

 
"Is devaluation of RBs reflected in lower hit rates at pick x over time?" 
That isn't how it should be framed. It should be if the hit rate has got higher over time. I think the idea is that if the hypothesis to be tested is "The NFL is devaluing RBs, therefore we should see a creep in the dataset where the hit rate improves over time at a given pick x."

If a player at pick x would have been picked at pick x minus some amount in years past, because the prospect score was the same, then that should be reflected in hit rates. If it *isn't* reflected, that might debunk the notion the NFL has devalued the position. But perhaps the devaluation is more relevant with 1st and 2nd rounders than later ones. ???

One obvious problem is that even with all the data, all it takes is one Aaron Jones type to skew everything. 

 
 I think he's likely a better inside runner than the initial glance would lead us to believe. It seems the Bills have been trying to move past Singeltary for a number of years now - between drafting Moss and sniffing around on available veteran RBs.

I get the whole "not worth a first" arguments - but who are we taking in his stead? 
Yeah those are the thoughts I've been mulling. Even if I talk myself out of him, the question stands who else am I gonna take?

 
I don't think the Chargers have Darrisaw.  He went to Minnesota.  
Rashawn Slater is who i meant, thank you!

-My larger point was they are pouring draft picks into their OL and I love the 6th Rd OG from Georgia they picked up. 

Ekeler has multiple 1,500+ rush/rec yds 11 TD in '19, 20 TDs in '21, this guy is worth way more than the $6M they pay him and he's under contract thru '23. And as good as he is, we're probably looking at the tail end of his career in 2023 so next guy up or net guy to be groomed. Josh Kelly is kind of an after though even though he is on the team but he prjects as RB3 until his rookie deal expires and I don't see LAC keeping him. 

Spiller is likely a long shot to be a weekly starter for many FF players however he landed on a talented team and that does make for a more rosy future. He is an injury or two from seeing a lot of touches and you have to account for that type of upside even if he won't see a lot of action Week 1...let's talk Week 8. 

Ekeler would seem to have a hammer lock on the starting spot in '22 and maybe even '23. But slowly Spiller will get touches and if he explodes on a few of them then logic would say he might get a few more.

 
As for Fantasy, anything above 1.8 in start 1qb leagues, but I personally wouldn't feel comfortable at 1.8 - 1.10.
Agreed.  I think we will see a lot of Fantasy GMs reach for James Cook in rookie drafts due to scarcity at the RB position, and his 2nd round draft capital and landing spot helps his profile.  I believe anything earlier than the 1.10 is a reach, but at the turn of Rounds 1 and 2, it feels like there are a whole lot of reaches.  Is James Cook really a bigger reach than Christian Watson?  At least Cook's value is buoyed with his PPR potential.  (For the record, I took Watson over Cook when I was faced with the choice, but I think it mostly comes down to roster composition.)  There is a good argument for taking Cook over Watson (or Skyy Moore) and grabbing a WR at your next pick.  The drop-off at WR is not nearly as steep as it is at RB.

 
Agreed.  I think we will see a lot of Fantasy GMs reach for James Cook in rookie drafts due to scarcity at the RB position, and his 2nd round draft capital and landing spot helps his profile.  I believe anything earlier than the 1.10 is a reach, but at the turn of Rounds 1 and 2, it feels like there are a whole lot of reaches.  Is James Cook really a bigger reach than Christian Watson?  At least Cook's value is buoyed with his PPR potential.  (For the record, I took Watson over Cook when I was faced with the choice, but I think it mostly comes down to roster composition.)  There is a good argument for taking Cook over Watson (or Skyy Moore) and grabbing a WR at your next pick.  The drop-off at WR is not nearly as steep as it is at RB.
As for Cook, how many times do we have to go to get burned on smaller backs (see Michael Carter) before we learn?  Carter had a good rookie season and they still drafted the best RB in the 2022 class.

 
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