Draft day curve balls (1 Viewer)

[faux_bear]

I had my draft last night. 12 team PPR league... you could have 1 keeper that cost you a pick 3 rounds higher than where he was drafted last season. I was fortunate to a) have Steve Slaton as a 12th round keeper and b) I landed the number 1 pick, thereby securing myself Adrian Peterson to go with Slaton...

I headed into the draft in perfect shape and prepared to pick off a couple of the top 12 WR's with the 24th and 25th overall picks...

and then the draft took exactly the kind of turn that you could never prepare for.

="01.01",RB1,Adrian Peterson

="01.02",WR1,Larry Fitzgerald

="01.03",RB4,Maurice Jones-Drew

="01.04",RB9,Michael Turner

="01.05",RB5,DeAngelo Williams

="01.06",RB7,LaDainian Tomlinson

="01.07",WR2,Andre Johnson

="01.08",QB1,Tom Brady

="01.09",WR3,Randy Moss

="01.10",RB3,Steven Jackson

="01.11",WR4,Calvin Johnson

="01.12",RB12,Brian Westbrook

="02.01",QB2,Drew Brees

="02.02",WR7,Reggie Wayne

="02.03",RB8,Frank Gore

="02.04",WR5,Steve Smith

="02.05",WR6,Roddy White

="02.06",RB2,Matt Forte Keeper

="02.07",WR8,Greg Jennings

="02.08",WR11,Anquan Boldin

="02.09",QB3,Peyton Manning

="02.10",WR10,Marques Colston

="02.11",WR9,Dwayne Bowe

the second round was my worst nightmare...I had secured two top RB's in Peterson and my keeper Slaton...so of course I was looking to take some good WR's with my second round pick... but then 11 of them were taken in the first 23 picks!

No Jacobs, No Portis, No Ronnie Brown, No Marion Barber....all of the guys before me passed on these "second round" running backs to take wide receivers, leaving me completely helpless...

So what do I do? I take Clinton Portis and "reach" for TJ Housh at picks 24 and 25, when I fully expected to take 2 from Colston, Boldin, Bowe. I went from feeling great going into the draft, to ending up with arguably a terrible draft position, based on who was taken before me. Even the Rate My Team feature says I only have an 85% of making the playoffs with great in season management.

The way the draft went threw me off my game and I'm not sure that I adjusted in the best possible way. Yes, I have Peterson, Slaton, Portis as my starting RB's...my top WR's are TJ Housh, Braylon E., Santana Moss, and Ted Ginn... but it could have been so much better had guys just picked the way they were "suppose to?"

anyone else get screwed by unusual draft patterns or scenarios? maybe getting cut off of a run on players? maybe you felt like you weren't taking control of the draft but it was taking control of you?

 

[MCguidance]

My draft was very unpredictable this year - a lot of newcomers to my league and the picks were loose. I wound up drafting fairly tight, sticking to my plan and going with SJax, then WR WR, Best Avail, etc.

I was thinking, man I could load up on RBs, but i knew that if WRs were a hot commodity, I wanted to make sure to get two studs and then the RBs would be there for value picks later on since owners were taking QBs, TEs, etc. In the 5th I saw Gates sitting there, and all of my tiered WRs were gone, and with Gates healthy (from what I have read) I felt he was great value. The RB slide is exactly what happened - I got Moreno in the 7th, and missed out on Wells in the 10th, but at that point, I had all the RBs I needed.

Wound up with:

Steven Jackson

Jennings

Colston

Grant

Gates

LJ

Moreno

Mason

Avery

Hasselbeck

Edwards

McGahee

Williamson

Charles

Bruce

I really like my draft, though if I had to do it again, I'd likely have drafted Housh rather than Grant (I flip flop nearly all the time) and then drafted Wells earlier. But this way, I had a fairly safe RB2 in Grant.

 

[dwyadog]

this was my first year in a keeper league thats been around for about 5 years. i know most of the guys from work but there were definitely a lot of curveballs. it seems a lot of them read sites like this but i was amazed how early guys like bradshaw and felix went, kind of defeats the point of a sleeper or value pick. i was able to pick up good depth guys like cotchery and lee evans past the 11th round.

 

[GoldenBear]

I don't think this is so much a curve ball as you weren't prepared for the way the majority of people are drafting this year.

Yeah...I don't think it's as awful as you're portraying...A LOT of people are planning on picking 2 WRs in their first 3 picks this year...if you mock drafted at espn.com, you'd know that...also, I would have done what you did, although I would have taken Jacobs in the third round, then tried to trade him for a WR later...

 

[BigDave]

My draft started at 5:30PM. I was scheduled on a flight that was supposed to land at 4:45 and I would have had time to drive and make it.

EVERY flight was on time except mine. Delayed 1 hour 15 minutes so I missed the start. I had to call my order of prefernce into the guy picking after me in the draft tp get my first two picks.

I landed on the runway and had my phone out and my list and started drafting as we taxied to the gate.

By the time I hit my car seat, 5 rounds had been drafted. I had to draft the rest of the way fighting traffic home.

10 team league, here's what I got:

9 - Fitzgerald

12-Chris Johnson

29-Roddy White

32-P. Thomas

49-Moreno

52 Derrick Ward

69-McNabb

72-Santana Moss

89-Donald Brown

92-Donald Driver

109-Cutler

112-Chargers

129-James Davis

132-Keading

I think the airlines threw me a curve and I played it as well as I could.

 

[faux_bear]

I don't think this is so much a curve ball as you weren't prepared for the way the majority of people are drafting this year.

Idefinitely knew there'd be a bigger than usual run on WR's in the 1st and second rounds, but I certainly haven't seen Ronnie Brown, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs ALL dropping out of the 2nd. I fully wasn't expecting to land a Jennings or a Roddy white, but I figured I could at least get Bowe or Colston at the bottom of the 2nd... it didn't happen.

 

[the branded hand]

So what do I do? I take Clinton Portis and "reach" for TJ Housh at picks 24 and 25, when I fully expected to take 2 from Colston, Boldin, Bowe. I went from feeling great going into the draft, to ending up with arguably a terrible draft position, based on who was taken before me. Even the Rate My Team feature says I only have an 85% of making the playoffs with great in season management.

The way the draft went threw me off my game and I'm not sure that I adjusted in the best possible way. Yes, I have Peterson, Slaton, Portis as my starting RB's...my top WR's are TJ Housh, Braylon E., Santana Moss, and Ted Ginn... but it could have been so much better had guys just picked the way they were "suppose to?"

anyone else get screwed...

Don't know what your roster requirements are, but TJ and Braylon in PPR are solid. They are borderline 3rd tier, but they play for teams that will probably be playing from behind this year. Good opportunities there. Be glad you took Portis and TJ, and then Braylon. If you had done it any other way you would have missed out on having 3 PPR RB's in the "projected" top 15 (VBD) AND two WR in the "projected" top 20... (you might feel that you reached for TJ, but IMO Braylon fell to you).

I don't know what the other teams look like, but you didn't get screwed IMHO. Did you pick up Chester, Ladell, or Brown for Ins.?

 

[faux_bear]

So what do I do? I take Clinton Portis and "reach" for TJ Housh at picks 24 and 25, when I fully expected to take 2 from Colston, Boldin, Bowe. I went from feeling great going into the draft, to ending up with arguably a terrible draft position, based on who was taken before me. Even the Rate My Team feature says I only have an 85% of making the playoffs with great in season management.

The way the draft went threw me off my game and I'm not sure that I adjusted in the best possible way. Yes, I have Peterson, Slaton, Portis as my starting RB's...my top WR's are TJ Housh, Braylon E., Santana Moss, and Ted Ginn... but it could have been so much better had guys just picked the way they were "suppose to?"

anyone else get screwed...

Don't know what your roster requirements are, but TJ and Braylon in PPR are solid. They are borderline 3rd tier, but they play for teams that will probably be playing from behind this year. Good opportunities there. Be glad you took Portis and TJ, and then Braylon. If you had done it any other way you would have missed out on having 3 PPR RB's in the "projected" top 15 (VBD) AND two WR in the "projected" top 20... (you might feel that you reached for TJ, but IMO Braylon fell to you).

I don't know what the other teams look like, but you didn't get screwed IMHO. Did you pick up Chester, Ladell, or Brown for Ins.?

I got Chester Taylor, but not Ladell Betts. and yes, I fully agreed that Braylon fell to me and was very happy about that. I didn't really want any of those running backs - Barber, Jacobs, Portis - but I can't complain having one of them as my 3rd RB...

 

[cstruk]

I don't think this is so much a curve ball as you weren't prepared for the way the majority of people are drafting this year.

Idefinitely knew there'd be a bigger than usual run on WR's in the 1st and second rounds, but I certainly haven't seen Ronnie Brown, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs ALL dropping out of the 2nd. I fully wasn't expecting to land a Jennings or a Roddy white, but I figured I could at least get Bowe or Colston at the bottom of the 2nd... it didn't happen.

My most recent draft's second round went (PPR)SlatonBoldinWayneTomlinson (dropped like a rock)BradyWestbrookSteve SmithJenningsWhiteColstonBreesWelkerFortunately, I did get Bowe at 3.02.Matter of fact pretty much every draft I looked at to prepare (you can look at actual drafts at myfantasyleague and antsports) had 10 or so WR's going by the end of round 2. All those RBs you mentioned were almost always 3rd round picks not 2nd.In one of my other leagues, we had an owner that could not stop picking RBs when most everyone else was emphasizing WRs Now his WRs are Colston, Lance Moore and Holt and no one will trade him a decent WR for any of his stockpiled RBs. He pretty much has no chance of making the playoffs. The lesson is that sometimes you just need to ignore the early value at RB and grab that WR. There will usually be late value at RB. This kind of goes with my preferred method of drafting which is the don't draft the last starter at a position until necessary.

 

[MCguidance]

The lesson is that sometimes you just need to ignore the early value at RB and grab that WR. There will usually be late value at RB. This kind of goes with my preferred method of drafting which is the don't draft the last starter at a position until necessary.

This is what I had to do - I made sure I grabbed two top WRs and then figured backs would fall. Turned out great as of now.

 

[Escape Goat]

I'm glad I popped in today and found this thread.Adjusting mid draft is the mark of The Great White. If you find yourself not having to make adjustments come draft day, your league is weak (good chance its weak anyhow). Truth is you weren't hit with a curve ball you just don't have a read on the landscape of the NFL. You can't sit there on your couch perusing ESPN's Fantasy Edition and FANTASY INSIDER and think you'll dominate your league. They're all preaching the same crap. Get on your computer and review game caps from last year. Open up youtube and watch film. Study the schedules of every player on your watch list. I SAID STUDY!. YOU HAVE TO KNOW! You think you're chumming the waters and snatching up value in the middle rounds relying on Flacco as your #1 QB because Fantasy Wizards say's he's the next Tom Brady and the Raven's are going to "OPEN IT UP" this year Truth is, he's Dilfer in disguise. Then again what do I know. I usually only money 90% of my leagues. If you had studied your schedules you'd know that Flacco is facing the Steelers and the Bears in the playoffs. Maybe you should have passed on Forte at #5 considering he has the gauntlet of MN, GB, Bal, MN to play in weeks 12, 14, 15, 16. Sharks know these things coming in, fish don't.Watch film, read recaps and study the ENTIRE NFL SCHEDULE. Take my advice and DESTROY your draft next year.

Bottom line: * With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With good inseason management, we think you have about a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Most guy's aren't seeing these results.

 

[Zaxxon]

I'm glad I popped in today and found this thread.

Adjusting mid draft is the mark of The Great White. If you find yourself not having to make adjustments come draft day, your league is weak (good chance its weak anyhow). Truth is you weren't hit with a curve ball you just don't have a read on the landscape of the NFL. You can't sit there on your couch perusing ESPN's Fantasy Edition and FANTASY INSIDER and think you'll dominate your league. They're all preaching the same crap. Get on your computer and review game caps from last year. Open up youtube and watch film. Study the schedules of every player on your watch list. I SAID STUDY!. YOU HAVE TO KNOW! You think you're chumming the waters and snatching up value in the middle rounds relying on Flacco as your #1 QB because Fantasy Wizards say's he's the next Tom Brady and the Raven's are going to "OPEN IT UP" this year Truth is, he's Dilfer in disguise. Then again what do I know. I usually only money 90% of my leagues. If you had studied your schedules you'd know that Flacco is facing the Steelers and the Bears in the playoffs. Maybe you should have passed on Forte at #5 considering he has the gauntlet of MN, GB, Bal, MN to play in weeks 12, 14, 15, 16. Sharks know these things coming in, fish don't.

Watch film, read recaps and study the ENTIRE NFL SCHEDULE. Take my advice and DESTROY your draft next year.

Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Most guy's aren't seeing these results.

Roster of Destruction

Gigantic Money League - 12 Team Redraft - Slot #1

QB- Gerrard

RB- A. Peterson

RB- L. Tomlinson

WR- A. Boldin

WR- D. Bowe

TE- D. Keller

FLEX- E. Royal

KICKER!!!- Kaeding

DST- Phil

Bench

K. Moreno

D. Brown

D. Sproles

B.G. Ellis

P. Harvin

C. Henry

D. Culpepper

Solid work, ace.

 

[SuperTed]

I'm glad I popped in today and found this thread.

Adjusting mid draft is the mark of The Great White. If you find yourself not having to make adjustments come draft day, your league is weak (good chance its weak anyhow). Truth is you weren't hit with a curve ball you just don't have a read on the landscape of the NFL. You can't sit there on your couch perusing ESPN's Fantasy Edition and FANTASY INSIDER and think you'll dominate your league. They're all preaching the same crap. Get on your computer and review game caps from last year. Open up youtube and watch film. Study the schedules of every player on your watch list. I SAID STUDY!. YOU HAVE TO KNOW! You think you're chumming the waters and snatching up value in the middle rounds relying on Flacco as your #1 QB because Fantasy Wizards say's he's the next Tom Brady and the Raven's are going to "OPEN IT UP" this year Truth is, he's Dilfer in disguise. Then again what do I know. I usually only money 90% of my leagues. If you had studied your schedules you'd know that Flacco is facing the Steelers and the Bears in the playoffs. Maybe you should have passed on Forte at #5 considering he has the gauntlet of MN, GB, Bal, MN to play in weeks 12, 14, 15, 16. Sharks know these things coming in, fish don't.

Watch film, read recaps and study the ENTIRE NFL SCHEDULE. Take my advice and DESTROY your draft next year.

Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Most guy's aren't seeing these results.

Roster of Destruction

Gigantic Money League - 12 Team Redraft - Slot #1

QB- Gerrard

RB- A. Peterson

RB- L. Tomlinson

WR- A. Boldin

WR- D. Bowe

TE- D. Keller

FLEX- E. Royal

KICKER!!!- Kaeding

DST- Phil

Bench

K. Moreno

D. Brown

D. Sproles

B.G. Ellis

P. Harvin

C. Henry

D. Culpepper

Solid work, ace.

Wait...How 'bout this:QB: Tom Brady, Jason Campbell

RB: Ryan Grant, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy

WR: Andre Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester, Ted Ginn, Laurent Robinson

TE: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis

PK: Nate Kaeding

TD: Minnesota Vikings

Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs

 

[CMU37484]

My draft was NUTS this year but it just meant great value falling to me......

Brady and Brees go at 1.09 and 1.11

Guy at 12 takes Roddy White and Greg Jennings back to back

Top 24 picks only 11 RB's go

Guy takes Colston over Reggie Wayne and Calvin Johnson in PPR league

Dallas Clark first TE gone in 3rd round

Guy who drafted Brady at 1.09 takes Rodgers in 4th.....only start 1 QB

All this led to me getting Portis in the 3rd, Kevin Smith in the 4th, Moreno in the 7th, Ray Rice in the 8th

 

[Frank Black]

My draft started at 5:30PM. I was scheduled on a flight that was supposed to land at 4:45 and I would have had time to drive and make it. EVERY flight was on time except mine. Delayed 1 hour 15 minutes so I missed the start. I had to call my order of prefernce into the guy picking after me in the draft tp get my first two picks. I landed on the runway and had my phone out and my list and started drafting as we taxied to the gate. By the time I hit my car seat, 5 rounds had been drafted. I had to draft the rest of the way fighting traffic home. 10 team league, here's what I got:9 - Fitzgerald12-Chris Johnson29-Roddy White32-P. Thomas49-Moreno52 Derrick Ward69-McNabb72-Santana Moss89-Donald Brown92-Donald Driver109-Cutler112-Chargers129-James Davis132-Keading I think the airlines threw me a curve and I played it as well as I could.

That's an interesting story but the OP is asking about people who were surprised at the way drafts played out because of who was picked at certain points, perhaps with an emphasis on early rounds. I'm confused about whether your initial strategy was foiled because of your airplane situation or because certain players were picked contrary to your forecast.

 

[MCguidance]

My draft was NUTS this year but it just meant great value falling to me......Brady and Brees go at 1.09 and 1.11 Guy at 12 takes Roddy White and Greg Jennings back to back Top 24 picks only 11 RB's go Guy takes Colston over Reggie Wayne and Calvin Johnson in PPR league Dallas Clark first TE gone in 3rd round Guy who drafted Brady at 1.09 takes Rodgers in 4th.....only start 1 QB All this led to me getting Portis in the 3rd, Kevin Smith in the 4th, Moreno in the 7th, Ray Rice in the 8th

I may be in the minority, and I agree with you, but all the guys that were taken were not complete duds. In fact, a case could really be made for all of them if you think about it. Not that I would have done it, though.

 

[Frank Black]

I'm glad I popped in today and found this thread.Adjusting mid draft is the mark of The Great White. If you find yourself not having to make adjustments come draft day, your league is weak (good chance its weak anyhow). Truth is you weren't hit with a curve ball you just don't have a read on the landscape of the NFL. You can't sit there on your couch perusing ESPN's Fantasy Edition and FANTASY INSIDER and think you'll dominate your league. They're all preaching the same crap. Get on your computer and review game caps from last year. Open up youtube and watch film. Study the schedules of every player on your watch list. I SAID STUDY!. YOU HAVE TO KNOW! You think you're chumming the waters and snatching up value in the middle rounds relying on Flacco as your #1 QB because Fantasy Wizards say's he's the next Tom Brady and the Raven's are going to "OPEN IT UP" this year Truth is, he's Dilfer in disguise. Then again what do I know. I usually only money 90% of my leagues. If you had studied your schedules you'd know that Flacco is facing the Steelers and the Bears in the playoffs. Maybe you should have passed on Forte at #5 considering he has the gauntlet of MN, GB, Bal, MN to play in weeks 12, 14, 15, 16. Sharks know these things coming in, fish don't.Watch film, read recaps and study the ENTIRE NFL SCHEDULE. Take my advice and DESTROY your draft next year.

Bottom line: * With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With good inseason management, we think you have about a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Most guy's aren't seeing these results.

I'm truly bewildered about the tone of this post because I can't tell whether the poster is an ego-maniac or whether he is just super pumped up about FF. I assume it is the latter and I admire his enthusiasm. That said, I am not a large believer in drafting based upon NFL schedules unless 2 players I am choosing from present a relatively all other things being equal sceanrio. Defensive performances change from year to year and you have to make the playoffs 1st to perform against whatever playoff schedule there is. Note my 1st point - if all other things are nearly equal, I try to opt for the seemingly better schedule.

 

[BigDave]

My draft started at 5:30PM. I was scheduled on a flight that was supposed to land at 4:45 and I would have had time to drive and make it. EVERY flight was on time except mine. Delayed 1 hour 15 minutes so I missed the start. I had to call my order of prefernce into the guy picking after me in the draft tp get my first two picks. I landed on the runway and had my phone out and my list and started drafting as we taxied to the gate. By the time I hit my car seat, 5 rounds had been drafted. I had to draft the rest of the way fighting traffic home. 10 team league, here's what I got:9 - Fitzgerald12-Chris Johnson29-Roddy White32-P. Thomas49-Moreno52 Derrick Ward69-McNabb72-Santana Moss89-Donald Brown92-Donald Driver109-Cutler112-Chargers129-James Davis132-Keading I think the airlines threw me a curve and I played it as well as I could.

That's an interesting story but the OP is asking about people who were surprised at the way drafts played out because of who was picked at certain points, perhaps with an emphasis on early rounds. I'm confused about whether your initial strategy was foiled because of your airplane situation or because certain players were picked contrary to your forecast.

Yes, my strategy was changed because of the plane delay AND the way the draft unfolded. I didn't go into detail before but here it is now: 1. I had to give my lineup to another owner who was picking after me at #10 and before me at #12. He knew exactly what I wanted and that gave him an advantage in selecting his players. 2. RB2's went well ahead of where their ADP's would have indicated they'd go. That enabled Roddy White to fall to me at #29. That was a good thing, but then I needed to grab Pierre Thomas at #32, because I didn't want to wait until round 5 & 6 to get my RB2. So an early run on RB2's changed my picks. 3. In my 4th and 5th round, I went Moreno and expected to get WR3 in V.Jackson or TJ Houz at #52. However, another owner grabbed both here and I took D. Ward as the best value at the time. There seemed to be a mini run on WR2/WR3 in rounds 5 and early 6th. The key is to stay flexible and believe in your projections and rankings. You should and will have curveballs in your drafts. In my case it was before and during.

 

[bonesman]

Wait...How 'bout this:

QB: Tom Brady, Jason Campbell

RB: Ryan Grant, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy

WR: Andre Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester, Ted Ginn, Laurent Robinson

TE: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis

PK: Nate Kaeding

TD: Minnesota Vikings

Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs

I'm not particularly impressed with this team Though you could have the top QB,WR and TE... I don't like your #2 anything.

 

[Escape Goat]

I'm glad I popped in today and found this thread.Adjusting mid draft is the mark of The Great White. If you find yourself not having to make adjustments come draft day, your league is weak (good chance its weak anyhow). Truth is you weren't hit with a curve ball you just don't have a read on the landscape of the NFL. You can't sit there on your couch perusing ESPN's Fantasy Edition and FANTASY INSIDER and think you'll dominate your league. They're all preaching the same crap. Get on your computer and review game caps from last year. Open up youtube and watch film. Study the schedules of every player on your watch list. I SAID STUDY!. YOU HAVE TO KNOW! You think you're chumming the waters and snatching up value in the middle rounds relying on Flacco as your #1 QB because Fantasy Wizards say's he's the next Tom Brady and the Raven's are going to "OPEN IT UP" this year Truth is, he's Dilfer in disguise. Then again what do I know. I usually only money 90% of my leagues. If you had studied your schedules you'd know that Flacco is facing the Steelers and the Bears in the playoffs. Maybe you should have passed on Forte at #5 considering he has the gauntlet of MN, GB, Bal, MN to play in weeks 12, 14, 15, 16. Sharks know these things coming in, fish don't.Watch film, read recaps and study the ENTIRE NFL SCHEDULE. Take my advice and DESTROY your draft next year.

Bottom line: * With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With good inseason management, we think you have about a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Most guy's aren't seeing these results.

I'm truly bewildered about the tone of this post because I can't tell whether the poster is an ego-maniac or whether he is just super pumped up about FF. I assume it is the latter and I admire his enthusiasm. That said, I am not a large believer in drafting based upon NFL schedules unless 2 players I am choosing from present a relatively all other things being equal sceanrio. Defensive performances change from year to year and you have to make the playoffs 1st to perform against whatever playoff schedule there is. Note my 1st point - if all other things are nearly equal, I try to opt for the seemingly better schedule.

Darn right I'm pumped up. Make the playoffs MAKE THE PLAYOFFS When it comes to fantasy football domination on a nationwide level, it's myself and a few others who wrote the book.

 

[Escape Goat]

Wait...How 'bout this:

QB: Tom Brady, Jason Campbell

RB: Ryan Grant, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy

WR: Andre Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester, Ted Ginn, Laurent Robinson

TE: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis

PK: Nate Kaeding

TD: Minnesota Vikings

Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs

I'm not particularly impressed with this team Though you could have the top QB,WR and TE... I don't like your #2 anything.

Maybe if this was a 18+ team league. Those numbers were obviously photoshopped. That team is a hair below mediocre at best. Good luck going into battle with Bernard Berrian and McFadden as #2's. BERRIAN AND MCFADDEN

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

The guys in the two and three hole knew you were set at RB and needed WR, so it makes sense they would go WR there. Dynamic VBD told them there would be little to no dropoff at the RB position between their 2nd and 3rd round picks.

basically they drafted as they were "supposed to."

 

[-jb-]

disturbing thread

 

[MCguidance]

Wait...How 'bout this:

QB: Tom Brady, Jason Campbell

RB: Ryan Grant, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy

WR: Andre Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester, Ted Ginn, Laurent Robinson

TE: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis

PK: Nate Kaeding

TD: Minnesota Vikings

Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs

I'm not particularly impressed with this team Though you could have the top QB,WR and TE... I don't like your #2 anything.

Maybe if this was a 18+ team league. Those numbers were obviously photoshopped. That team is a hair below mediocre at best. Good luck going into battle with Bernard Berrian and McFadden as #2's. BERRIAN AND MCFADDEN

I wish I drafted Gerrard like you did.

 

[norgay]

I'm glad I popped in today and found this thread.Adjusting mid draft is the mark of The Great White. If you find yourself not having to make adjustments come draft day, your league is weak (good chance its weak anyhow). Truth is you weren't hit with a curve ball you just don't have a read on the landscape of the NFL. You can't sit there on your couch perusing ESPN's Fantasy Edition and FANTASY INSIDER and think you'll dominate your league. They're all preaching the same crap. Get on your computer and review game caps from last year. Open up youtube and watch film. Study the schedules of every player on your watch list. I SAID STUDY!. YOU HAVE TO KNOW! You think you're chumming the waters and snatching up value in the middle rounds relying on Flacco as your #1 QB because Fantasy Wizards say's he's the next Tom Brady and the Raven's are going to "OPEN IT UP" this year Truth is, he's Dilfer in disguise. Then again what do I know. I usually only money 90% of my leagues. If you had studied your schedules you'd know that Flacco is facing the Steelers and the Bears in the playoffs. Maybe you should have passed on Forte at #5 considering he has the gauntlet of MN, GB, Bal, MN to play in weeks 12, 14, 15, 16. Sharks know these things coming in, fish don't.Watch film, read recaps and study the ENTIRE NFL SCHEDULE. Take my advice and DESTROY your draft next year.

Bottom line: * With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With good inseason management, we think you have about a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Most guy's aren't seeing these results.

I'm truly bewildered about the tone of this post because I can't tell whether the poster is an ego-maniac or whether he is just super pumped up about FF. I assume it is the latter and I admire his enthusiasm. That said, I am not a large believer in drafting based upon NFL schedules unless 2 players I am choosing from present a relatively all other things being equal sceanrio. Defensive performances change from year to year and you have to make the playoffs 1st to perform against whatever playoff schedule there is. Note my 1st point - if all other things are nearly equal, I try to opt for the seemingly better schedule.

Darn right I'm pumped up. Make the playoffs MAKE THE PLAYOFFS When it comes to fantasy football domination on a nationwide level, it's myself and a few others who wrote the book.

Writing the book is nice and all, but I fail to see how that helped you draft LT as your RB 2 when drafting out of the #1 spot; also a bit confused as to how Dwayne Bowe fell to the last pick of the 4th.

 

[nordstrom24]

I'm glad I popped in today and found this thread.Adjusting mid draft is the mark of The Great White. If you find yourself not having to make adjustments come draft day, your league is weak (good chance its weak anyhow). Truth is you weren't hit with a curve ball you just don't have a read on the landscape of the NFL. You can't sit there on your couch perusing ESPN's Fantasy Edition and FANTASY INSIDER and think you'll dominate your league. They're all preaching the same crap. Get on your computer and review game caps from last year. Open up youtube and watch film. Study the schedules of every player on your watch list. I SAID STUDY!. YOU HAVE TO KNOW! You think you're chumming the waters and snatching up value in the middle rounds relying on Flacco as your #1 QB because Fantasy Wizards say's he's the next Tom Brady and the Raven's are going to "OPEN IT UP" this year Truth is, he's Dilfer in disguise. Then again what do I know. I usually only money 90% of my leagues. If you had studied your schedules you'd know that Flacco is facing the Steelers and the Bears in the playoffs. Maybe you should have passed on Forte at #5 considering he has the gauntlet of MN, GB, Bal, MN to play in weeks 12, 14, 15, 16. Sharks know these things coming in, fish don't.Watch film, read recaps and study the ENTIRE NFL SCHEDULE. Take my advice and DESTROY your draft next year.

Bottom line: * With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With good inseason management, we think you have about a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Most guy's aren't seeing these results.

I'm truly bewildered about the tone of this post because I can't tell whether the poster is an ego-maniac or whether he is just super pumped up about FF. I assume it is the latter and I admire his enthusiasm. That said, I am not a large believer in drafting based upon NFL schedules unless 2 players I am choosing from present a relatively all other things being equal sceanrio. Defensive performances change from year to year and you have to make the playoffs 1st to perform against whatever playoff schedule there is. Note my 1st point - if all other things are nearly equal, I try to opt for the seemingly better schedule.

Darn right I'm pumped up. Make the playoffs MAKE THE PLAYOFFS When it comes to fantasy football domination on a nationwide level, it's myself and a few others who wrote the book.

Writing the book is nice and all, but I fail to see how that helped you draft LT as your RB 2 when drafting out of the #1 spot; also a bit confused as to how Dwayne Bowe fell to the last pick of the 4th.

 

[SuperTed]

Wait...How 'bout this:

QB: Tom Brady, Jason Campbell

RB: Ryan Grant, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy

WR: Andre Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester, Ted Ginn, Laurent Robinson

TE: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis

PK: Nate Kaeding

TD: Minnesota Vikings

Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs

I'm not particularly impressed with this team Though you could have the top QB,WR and TE... I don't like your #2 anything.

:( Maybe if this was a 18+ team league. Those numbers were obviously photoshopped. That team is a hair below mediocre at best. Good luck going into battle with Bernard Berrian and McFadden as #2's. BERRIAN AND MCFADDEN :(

Are you serious? You have some balls accusing someone of lying. All you had to do was enter in the players yourself and see before shooting your mouth off: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-m...am=52HmyZ838CEZBlame FootballGuys since it's their application (and I did it right from their DraftDominator app). And sorry you weren't impressed. Both of your teams must be the cat's a.s.s., I guess.

 

[GoldenBear]

The hubris a couple of you have in this thread is pretty unbelievable. I'm glad all the guys in my league are light-hearted and competent...if I had to deal with such pompous bombast in my league, I would seriously consider quitting.

 

[bshell27]

The hubris a couple of you have in this thread is pretty unbelievable. I'm glad all the guys in my league are light-hearted and competent...if I had to deal with such pompous bombast in my league, I would seriously consider quitting.

I had similar numbers but I didn't brag. Wait a minute I think I just did. All I can say is thank you FBG and the fine work you do every year. Helped me draft another contender. I had a few curve balls. Top 2 WR's went before my #8 pick in a 12 man redraft. Then three more went before my second. Reading the Perfect Draft article and using VBD always allows me to be prepared for this type of question. WR dropoff allowed me to target great value RB's.

 

[norgay]

The hubris a couple of you have in this thread is pretty unbelievable. I'm glad all the guys in my league are light-hearted and competent...if I had to deal with such pompous bombast in my league, I would seriously consider quitting.

I had similar numbers but I didn't brag. Wait a minute I think I just did. All I can say is thank you FBG and the fine work you do every year. Helped me draft another contender.

I had a few curve balls. Top 2 WR's went before my #8 pick in a 12 man redraft. Then three more went before my second. Reading the Perfect Draft article and using VBD always allows me to be prepared for this type of question. WR dropoff allowed me to target great value RB's.

I second your thanks to FBG. That said, I do think we need to keep the "rate my team" function in perspective, for two reasons:1. Without knowing the background information (e.g. what percentage of your teams make the playoffs) your "rate my team" score doesnt tell me much.

2. More importantly, it seems to me that there's two ways to excel at FF - the first is to accept consensus rankings and strategize accordingly on draft day to get the best value at your draft based on consensus expectations. If you do this well, there's no reason you shouldnt have high percentages in FBG's "rank my team" function since they are all based off of Dodd's projections. The second way to excel is to come up with reasons why the consensus rankings (including FBG's) are wrong, and draft for value accordingly. This is much harder, but potentially much more rewarding. Also, you won't score nearly as high on FBG's rate my team function which is based off of consensus rankings, not your own.

So, really, scoring high on these rate my team functions just means that you've done a good job assimilating FBG's content and Dodd's perfect draft column. I'm not belittling that -- just saying that we should remember to stick with our guns of who WE perceive as value because the goal is to win the season, not to get the highest "rate my team" score.

That was a long and probably unnecessary post. But I have 1 more hour to kill until my draft and I needed to keep busy...

 

[Frank Black]

My draft started at 5:30PM. I was scheduled on a flight that was supposed to land at 4:45 and I would have had time to drive and make it. EVERY flight was on time except mine. Delayed 1 hour 15 minutes so I missed the start. I had to call my order of prefernce into the guy picking after me in the draft tp get my first two picks. I landed on the runway and had my phone out and my list and started drafting as we taxied to the gate. By the time I hit my car seat, 5 rounds had been drafted. I had to draft the rest of the way fighting traffic home. 10 team league, here's what I got:9 - Fitzgerald12-Chris Johnson29-Roddy White32-P. Thomas49-Moreno52 Derrick Ward69-McNabb72-Santana Moss89-Donald Brown92-Donald Driver109-Cutler112-Chargers129-James Davis132-Keading I think the airlines threw me a curve and I played it as well as I could.

That's an interesting story but the OP is asking about people who were surprised at the way drafts played out because of who was picked at certain points, perhaps with an emphasis on early rounds. I'm confused about whether your initial strategy was foiled because of your airplane situation or because certain players were picked contrary to your forecast.

Yes, my strategy was changed because of the plane delay AND the way the draft unfolded. I didn't go into detail before but here it is now: 1. I had to give my lineup to another owner who was picking after me at #10 and before me at #12. He knew exactly what I wanted and that gave him an advantage in selecting his players. 2. RB2's went well ahead of where their ADP's would have indicated they'd go. That enabled Roddy White to fall to me at #29. That was a good thing, but then I needed to grab Pierre Thomas at #32, because I didn't want to wait until round 5 & 6 to get my RB2. So an early run on RB2's changed my picks. 3. In my 4th and 5th round, I went Moreno and expected to get WR3 in V.Jackson or TJ Houz at #52. However, another owner grabbed both here and I took D. Ward as the best value at the time. There seemed to be a mini run on WR2/WR3 in rounds 5 and early 6th. The key is to stay flexible and believe in your projections and rankings. You should and will have curveballs in your drafts. In my case it was before and during.

Big Dave, thanks for the clarification. I think you recovered well under the circumstances and I'm sorry to hear about the airplaine situation.

 

[Frank Black]

I'm glad I popped in today and found this thread.Adjusting mid draft is the mark of The Great White. If you find yourself not having to make adjustments come draft day, your league is weak (good chance its weak anyhow). Truth is you weren't hit with a curve ball you just don't have a read on the landscape of the NFL. You can't sit there on your couch perusing ESPN's Fantasy Edition and FANTASY INSIDER and think you'll dominate your league. They're all preaching the same crap. Get on your computer and review game caps from last year. Open up youtube and watch film. Study the schedules of every player on your watch list. I SAID STUDY!. YOU HAVE TO KNOW! You think you're chumming the waters and snatching up value in the middle rounds relying on Flacco as your #1 QB because Fantasy Wizards say's he's the next Tom Brady and the Raven's are going to "OPEN IT UP" this year Truth is, he's Dilfer in disguise. Then again what do I know. I usually only money 90% of my leagues. If you had studied your schedules you'd know that Flacco is facing the Steelers and the Bears in the playoffs. Maybe you should have passed on Forte at #5 considering he has the gauntlet of MN, GB, Bal, MN to play in weeks 12, 14, 15, 16. Sharks know these things coming in, fish don't.Watch film, read recaps and study the ENTIRE NFL SCHEDULE. Take my advice and DESTROY your draft next year.

Bottom line: * With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With good inseason management, we think you have about a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs. * With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Most guy's aren't seeing these results.

I'm truly bewildered about the tone of this post because I can't tell whether the poster is an ego-maniac or whether he is just super pumped up about FF. I assume it is the latter and I admire his enthusiasm. That said, I am not a large believer in drafting based upon NFL schedules unless 2 players I am choosing from present a relatively all other things being equal sceanrio. Defensive performances change from year to year and you have to make the playoffs 1st to perform against whatever playoff schedule there is. Note my 1st point - if all other things are nearly equal, I try to opt for the seemingly better schedule.

Darn right I'm pumped up. Make the playoffs MAKE THE PLAYOFFS When it comes to fantasy football domination on a nationwide level, it's myself and a few others who wrote the book.

Hmm, I tried giving you a way to be tactful and explain that you were merely pumped up. Now, it's clear that in addition to being pumped up, you are indeed an ego-maniac. I agree with the other poster that I am glad that my league does not have any over the top arrogant personalities. My league offers really tough competition without the arrogance. This makes the league more fun, given that like many if not most people here, I want to win but in the end, it is a hobby that I enjoy for recreation.

 

[Frank Black]

disturbing thread

The thread had good potential. The OP posted about curve balls in the draft and illustrated something that others chimed in on, that people are drafting stud WRs earlier this season and to also expect other curve-balls. I find value in that.Then, hubris and superiority reared their heads and the thread became somewhat disturbing, as you said. Perhaps we could get back to discussing draft say curves instead of what FF geniuses some of us are.

 

[Beef Ravioli]

I learned a valuable lesson this year in my auction draft.

I had kept Schaub, Turner, Pierre and Calvin and had $128 left out of a $200 budget. I targeted 2 WR's (Wayne and Colston) and 3 RB's (McFadden, Grant and Bradshaw). I wanted to get at least one of those receivers, but I think I got a man crush on McFadden and Grant. Well, both Wayne and Colston were called before any of my RB's and they went well above what I thought they would (W - $41 and C - $43) and I choked! I now have Cotchery, K Walter or J Morgan for my #2 WR and I will have two good backs on the bench each week. Trying to work the trades but not sure if anything will go. To add salt to the wound I ended up with $28 left so I could have gotten one of them for sure and still got at least one of my backs.

Lesson learned - you got to pay if there isn't too many options left.

 

[Escape Goat]

A lot can be learned from going back through this thread.

Just a heads up.

 

[Escape Goat]

Wait...How 'bout this:

QB: Tom Brady, Jason Campbell

RB: Ryan Grant, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy

WR: Andre Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester, Ted Ginn, Laurent Robinson

TE: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis

PK: Nate Kaeding

TD: Minnesota Vikings

Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

* With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs

I'm not particularly impressed with this team Though you could have the top QB,WR and TE... I don't like your #2 anything.

Maybe if this was a 18+ team league. Those numbers were obviously photoshopped. That team is a hair below mediocre at best. Good luck going into battle with Bernard Berrian and McFadden as #2's. BERRIAN AND MCFADDEN