Draft help with 2QB, 2DEF and 2 Kicker league - oddly not a 2TE (1 Viewer)

[jborn34]

I could really use some input from the footballguys community on how to approach an upcoming draft that has 2 QB, 2 Defs and 2 Kickers. My understanding is all viable QBs, and kickers will be rostered at the end of the draft, and all DEFs will be picked and picked early.. like no defenses left after round 8.  Defensive scoring looks obscenely inflated also, so getting a good defense will help.  Kickers are deflated, so still looking to take them as late as possible.  Tight Ends I only need 1, so I'll be streaming that position most likely.  QB go quickly also.  Like A A Rod will be pick number 1 unless I'm picking, because then I'll pick a RB, but what's the strategy here?  Pick up 2 QBs early because everyone else is or just stuck with Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannihil

So what do you do? I usually stream my defense and kicker, so grabbing them early just goes against my instincts. I'm thinking that I should take a couple defenses early and just ride out the bye week, kickers I still want to take late in the draft. QB, well that's just another craziness, If all viable starters are gone by the 4th round do you take them early? Do you pass up a top tier RB if you have the option to take top tier QBs? Same question for WR?

Completions .5 0 Passing Yards 50 yards per point 25 yards per point Passing Touchdowns 6 4 Interceptions -2 -1 Rushing Yards 12 yards per point 10 yards per point Rushing Touchdowns 6
Receptions .5
Receiving Yards 20 yards per point 10 yards per point Receiving Touchdowns 6
Return Touchdowns 6
2-Point Conversions 2
Fumbles Lost -2
Offensive Fumble Return TD 6
Kickers League Value Yahoo Default Value Field Goals 0-19 Yards 1 3 Field Goals 20-29 Yards 2 3 Field Goals 30-39 Yards 3
Field Goals 40-49 Yards 4
Field Goals 50+ Yards 5
Point After Attempt Made .5 1 Point After Attempt Missed -.5 0 Defense/Special Teams League Value Yahoo Default Value Sack 1
Interception 2
Fumble Recovery 2
Touchdown 6
Safety 3 2 Block Kick 3 2 Points Allowed 0 points 20 10 Points Allowed 1-6 points 16 7 Points Allowed 7-13 points 12 4 Points Allowed 14-20 points 8 1 Points Allowed 21-27 points 4 0 Points Allowed 28-34 points 0 -1 Points Allowed 35+ points -2 -4 Extra Point Returned 2

 

[jmble]

I've never played in this kind of league, but personally I would stick mostly to the same strategy as always.  If people are gobbling up QBs early, that leaves you with some great options at RB/WR.  It also will leave some other teams with some holes at your position of strength that you could possibly use for trade bait to upgrade your other positions if you need to.

 

[jmble]

Also, just to add, unless you are required to start two defenses, I'd consider just running with one and leaving the other slot open all year.  If you end up with one of the bottom five defenses in the league and you're like to get very few to negative points on them on a weekly basis.

 

[jborn34]

Great question on required to start vs not required to start 2 defenses.  I believe that it's required and no team can roster more than 3.  I also look at this as a defense can bring in easily 20 points a week, keep score low, and get a couple sacks, an interception.  Problem is projecting which defense will be good is a ####### nightmare.  Complete crap shot after the first few defenses right?

 

[Brisco54]

Couple other factors I need to know:  How many tams in the league and how many total roster slots?

In deciding when to pick a given position in draft, I focus on three things:  scarcity, tier gap & position predictability.

Scarcity is how many viable starters are left currently, and how many will be left at the end of the draft. 

Tier gap is the difference in performance between the player in the current tier and the player in the tier I will get if I wait and the tier available on the waiver wire.

Position predictability is how reliable the rankings are for that position on a tier basis.  In other words, how many of the top ten rated players at that position are likely to end the year in the top ten?

The reason most of us wait until the end of the draft to add a K or DEF is because we have been around the block a few times and know that those two positions are largely unpredictable.  For example, I feel pretty safe in saying that 4 of the top ten defenses at the end of this season are not currently ranked in the top half of the league.  

However, if you are in a 12 team league and each team can roster 3 DEF and 3 K and must start two, scarcity really helps their value because if 8 teams keep three DEF or three K, then four teams do not even have the option of a bye week starter.  Plus, on the big BYE weeks, there are 6 less DEF available, so there are a total of 26 DEF available to fill 24 lineup slots... same with kicker.  If you are in a 12 team league you are going to need to move up when you draft DEF or K.  

Side note about DEF is that injuries and benchings do not change the number that are available.  6-8 QB1s and 5-7 kickers will be injured or replaced during the year, meaning you have the chance to add their replacement off the waiver wire... this makes the total pool of rosterable players larger.  (e.g. folks may have both Josh Rosen and Bradford on their rosters)  No true of DEF... there is a fixed pool of 32.

On QB's, the position is probably more predictable.  Absent injury, Wilson and Newton will finish in the top ten.  (You cant say that with the same level of certainty for any K or DEF)  Last year there were four tiers in the top 32 qbs in our scoring system (4 pt passing TDs, -1 INT, 1 per 25 yards).  Tier 1 was Wilson, all by himself.  he had a 48 point gap between him and the #2, Cam.  The next tier had 13 QBs (Cam, Brady, Smith, Cousins, Stafford, Wentz, Rivers, Dak, Ben Brees, Goff, and Bortles.  These 13 QBs were all within 48 points of each other on the year.  a 3 ppg variance puts them in the same tier.  The next 12 QBs were in the same tier (Ryan to Flacco) again separated by about 48 points from top to bottom.    The bottom seven had a 70 point variance, but they were all so bad that they can be treated as the same bottom tier.

That bottom tier was full of injured folks (Watson, Rodgers, Palmer) and some predictable failure (Cutler, Trubiskey, Siemien).  Of the top 14, above, I think all but Goff, Bortles and Wentz were predicted to be top 15. 

So all this leads to, in a 2 QB league, I would try to get two of the top 15 ranked QBs and draft early enough to get them.