I know there is some discussion in the Fan Duel thread but I think since not everyone plays both, it makes sense to keep the discussions separate. And if you play both it's important to recognize that a good play at one site doesn't mean it's a good play at the other.
I'll start with some of my thoughts. In cash games I'm looking for players that I think can hit 3x value (Salary * 3 / 1000), this gives a target score of 150, which gives nice room for error to cash (you probably only need 2.5x). In GPP's I'm looking for players that can 4x value, for a target score of 200.
Some thoughts for this week:
QB:
Peyton Manning - Would need about 300/3 to hit value, but has a nice floor making him a nice option in Cash games He is a bit costly at 8.8K and I worry a little about a) this game getting out of hand and b) Manning constantly checking to run plays due to DeVito and Johnson missing from KC's line up. His high floor keeps him in play as I see Denver putting up 35 on KC.
Andrew Luck - Expect him to be pretty highly owned going against a suspect Philly D. Not to mention he's on MNF so that'll probably bump his ownership up a tad. Indy's run game is not great and Philly actually does have the players capable of bottling up the run, this will lead Luck to a nice volume of pass attempts. Thanks to value added with legs, he can probably hit value with a 300/2 game. I think he makes a nice play in both Cash and GPP, but be aware of high ownership.
Drew Brees - Slightly cheaper than Luck, I think he makes a decent alternate. He goes against a Cleveland defense that offers very little in terms of pass rushing ability and I have New Orleans ranked 2nd in pass protection. That should leave Brees all day to find his targets. Vegas has them expected to score about 27 points. He won't run so he'll need to throw for a bit more yardage than Luck to hit value. I know Brees has some pretty big home/away splits but if you give Brees enough time, he'll put up stats anywhere.
Matt Ryan - Cincy has a pretty well rounded secondary, although I still see Ryan, Jones, and White all getting decent numbers this week. He offers a decent floor, but I think his upside is limited. Vegas only has Atlanta scoring about 21 points. Without rushing stats he'd need to get 325/2 or 300/3 to reach 3x Value.
Aaron Rodgers - It's not often you'll find Rodgers this cheap. His price is deflated after putting up subpar numbers against Seattle. He goes against a hurting secondary and a pass rushers that I have ranked toward the bottom of the league. The Jets defensive strength is stopping the run, which means we should see a heavy dose of Rodgers. If he can get you 20 yards rushing, he'd only need 300/2 to reach 3x Value.
Andy Dalton - Again I see Dalton having all day to throw. Atlanta is sub par in pash rushing ability Cincy's pass protection is very good, they didn't allow Dalton to get hit last week let alone sacked. Without any rushing stats you'd need 300/2 to get to 3x Value. Keep an eye on A.J. Greens health.
Russell Wilson - At only 7.1K, he doesn't need much to hit value. He usually adds 30 yards rushing, which puts the 3x Value mark at 250/2 passing. Palmer put up excellent numbers against SD's secondary. SD can put some pressure on the QB, which may lead to Wilson having to leave the pocket and ultimately end up with some more rushing yards.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - A punt option at 5K. 275/1 or 150/2 will get to 3x value, both doable, however Houston has shown they are a run first, second and third team, and I think in this match up they have a big advantage running the ball. I wouldn't be shocked too FItzpatrick hit value, but I think he should be limited to GPP teams.
Honorable Mentions
Matthew Stafford 8.3K - Carolinas defensive strength is run defense. Stafford is a volume pass and I can see him hitting value, but like others better.
Nick Foles 8.1K - This the cost is a little high. He hasn't looked sharp and this is a run first team. Will be involved in a high scoring game most likely, but rather spend up and get Luck.
Colin Kaepernick - Came out sharp last week, but what got lost in that game is that SF's offense did next to nothing after the first quarter. Concerned a little and think Rodgers at the same price is the better play.
Jay Cutler - I actually like the matchup against SF, but am concerned about the health of Marshall and Jeffery
Jake Locker 7.1 - He's interesting but I think a lot of people will have him on their team. Not saying he'll disappoint, but I think Dallas' defense is equally bad in pass and run game and if given the choice Fisher would prefer to run the ball. I can't blame you for taking a chance here, but I think he's too risky for a cash game and will be too highly owned for a GPP.
Will post later some RB/WR and TE thoughts.
I'll start with some of my thoughts. In cash games I'm looking for players that I think can hit 3x value (Salary * 3 / 1000), this gives a target score of 150, which gives nice room for error to cash (you probably only need 2.5x). In GPP's I'm looking for players that can 4x value, for a target score of 200.
Some thoughts for this week:
QB:
Peyton Manning - Would need about 300/3 to hit value, but has a nice floor making him a nice option in Cash games He is a bit costly at 8.8K and I worry a little about a) this game getting out of hand and b) Manning constantly checking to run plays due to DeVito and Johnson missing from KC's line up. His high floor keeps him in play as I see Denver putting up 35 on KC.
Andrew Luck - Expect him to be pretty highly owned going against a suspect Philly D. Not to mention he's on MNF so that'll probably bump his ownership up a tad. Indy's run game is not great and Philly actually does have the players capable of bottling up the run, this will lead Luck to a nice volume of pass attempts. Thanks to value added with legs, he can probably hit value with a 300/2 game. I think he makes a nice play in both Cash and GPP, but be aware of high ownership.
Drew Brees - Slightly cheaper than Luck, I think he makes a decent alternate. He goes against a Cleveland defense that offers very little in terms of pass rushing ability and I have New Orleans ranked 2nd in pass protection. That should leave Brees all day to find his targets. Vegas has them expected to score about 27 points. He won't run so he'll need to throw for a bit more yardage than Luck to hit value. I know Brees has some pretty big home/away splits but if you give Brees enough time, he'll put up stats anywhere.
Matt Ryan - Cincy has a pretty well rounded secondary, although I still see Ryan, Jones, and White all getting decent numbers this week. He offers a decent floor, but I think his upside is limited. Vegas only has Atlanta scoring about 21 points. Without rushing stats he'd need to get 325/2 or 300/3 to reach 3x Value.
Aaron Rodgers - It's not often you'll find Rodgers this cheap. His price is deflated after putting up subpar numbers against Seattle. He goes against a hurting secondary and a pass rushers that I have ranked toward the bottom of the league. The Jets defensive strength is stopping the run, which means we should see a heavy dose of Rodgers. If he can get you 20 yards rushing, he'd only need 300/2 to reach 3x Value.
Andy Dalton - Again I see Dalton having all day to throw. Atlanta is sub par in pash rushing ability Cincy's pass protection is very good, they didn't allow Dalton to get hit last week let alone sacked. Without any rushing stats you'd need 300/2 to get to 3x Value. Keep an eye on A.J. Greens health.
Russell Wilson - At only 7.1K, he doesn't need much to hit value. He usually adds 30 yards rushing, which puts the 3x Value mark at 250/2 passing. Palmer put up excellent numbers against SD's secondary. SD can put some pressure on the QB, which may lead to Wilson having to leave the pocket and ultimately end up with some more rushing yards.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - A punt option at 5K. 275/1 or 150/2 will get to 3x value, both doable, however Houston has shown they are a run first, second and third team, and I think in this match up they have a big advantage running the ball. I wouldn't be shocked too FItzpatrick hit value, but I think he should be limited to GPP teams.
Honorable Mentions
Matthew Stafford 8.3K - Carolinas defensive strength is run defense. Stafford is a volume pass and I can see him hitting value, but like others better.
Nick Foles 8.1K - This the cost is a little high. He hasn't looked sharp and this is a run first team. Will be involved in a high scoring game most likely, but rather spend up and get Luck.
Colin Kaepernick - Came out sharp last week, but what got lost in that game is that SF's offense did next to nothing after the first quarter. Concerned a little and think Rodgers at the same price is the better play.
Jay Cutler - I actually like the matchup against SF, but am concerned about the health of Marshall and Jeffery
Jake Locker 7.1 - He's interesting but I think a lot of people will have him on their team. Not saying he'll disappoint, but I think Dallas' defense is equally bad in pass and run game and if given the choice Fisher would prefer to run the ball. I can't blame you for taking a chance here, but I think he's too risky for a cash game and will be too highly owned for a GPP.
Will post later some RB/WR and TE thoughts.
