Draft philosophy in a dynasty IDP league (1 Viewer)

[Miro Z]

We nearly finished the inaugural draft of a new IDP dynasty league, with the following starting requirements: 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs, 1K, 3 DLs, 4 LBs, 4 DBs.

I circulated the following note to the league, I'm including it because it contains various observations about the importance of certain positions:

Now, I've been playing dynasty for about 15 years, and anyone from my leagues will tell you I LOVE RBs. I mean, one of my leagues - the Thurman Thomas - is even named after one. RBs, I have always thought, offer you the most value, the most explosion. And I have typically drafted accordingly, always drafting RBs high.

But something has changed in the NFL. RBBCs are the norm. There are a handful of really great backs, the Todd Gurleys, but otherwise most teams see RBs as very replaceable and don't prioritise them.

Instead, we live in an era of the super WR, 6'4 giants who are capable of catching 100+ balls a season. And these guys have longevity, they can have careers lasting 10+ years. That's why I drafted Julio Jones and AJ Green as my top two picks. Both are still very young and have a lot of seasons ahead of them. I also really like Julian Edelman, my #3, in a PPR league, and Stefon Diggs has a lot of upside as my #4.

As well as loving RBs, I also typically took the view that you could always find good IDP starters on waivers, and never prioritised them. I still kind of believe that, but I also think that LBs are the new RBs of fantasy, they offer the most explosion and value. So I went super-heavy on LBs, and LOVE my LB corps - the scoring system really benefits 3-down guys who defend a lot of passes and I loaded up on young LB superstars, Telvin, Kwon, Jamie and Vontaze. Even reserve Anthony Barr is not too shabby.

In a start 2 QB league you have to prioritise that position, and I took a couple of very established starters, Cutler and Ryan, as well as a superstar in the making, Mariota. And I took both potential starting QBs in SF very late and very cheap because, let's not forget, QBs can put up good numbers in Chip Kelly's offense (prime exhibit: Nick Foles).

Another thought about IDPs - there are only a handful of top DLs. I took one, Quinn, and another one, JPP, who might return to those heights (he is getting rave reviews in camp and no longer wears the club). Using the same principle with DBs, I drafted the uber-talented Honey Badger, even if he is coming off an ACL.

A 2 start TE league means they are also a big priority, particularly because good ones are in such short supply (there certainly aren't 24 worthy starters). I took Eifert high because he is so talented and has so much upside and added Barnidge because he had an insanely good year last year, even though he is no spring chicken. I also drafted Ben Watson as cover and Virgil Green, who might start in Denver and could be the next Julius Thomas (I hope).

So, where does that leave the RBs? I left it very late, the 10th round, to start picking 'em. Matt Jones has some upside in DC and I have his backup, the super-talented Keith Marshall too. Rather later, I added Chris Ivory and Rashad Jennings. I think Ivory could be the lead back in Jax and it looks like Jennings will be the guy in NY. Both were late round picks and cheap.

I also added the non-Arian Foster Fins backfield, Ajayi and Drake. When Foster goes down these guys will be the ones pounding it. And I threw in some very cheap prospects like Spencer West, who could be the guy in KC when Jamaal Charles goes down; Alfred Morris, in case Ezekiel doesn't work out he's got a lot of pedigree and will be playing behind the best line in football; and LeGarrette Blount, who could still be the power back in NE (he might also be waiver fodder, but I got him so late I don't care).

So overall, I love my hellacious IDPs and WRs, and I feel pretty good about my QBs and TEs. My RBs? Well, I look at it this way. I'll live with starting guys like Rashad Jennings early in the season and just hope that one of my multitude of young, cheap alternatives breaks out later in the year.

That's the story of my draft - I'd love to hear everyone else's!

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

In general terms I draft about 90% offense in the first half and about 90% defense in the second half.

Resist the temptation to start grabbing IDP studs early. Stock your shelves with offensive studs and when your done, there will be plenty of good IDPs left at all positions.

If need be, you'll be able to trade your offensive depth for IDPs to one of the teams who thought they could crush with a team full of IDP studs and crap on offense.

In my early days, I was the guy taking the IDPs early and like they say " live and learn."

 

[Biabreakable]

If you view tackles as similar to receptions, you realize there is a lot of value and consistency in scoring from LB who consistently make a lot of tackles. This can be counter intuitive at times because you are looking for bad offensive teams for your IDPs to help them get more opportunities. Bowman and SF is a perfect example. Good LB on a team that is not possessing the ball for very long.

It can also help if there are not other good IDP to compete for tackles. Kendricks and Barr are good LB, however they steal plays from each other as well. The Vikings offense possesses the ball longer and the defense as a whole is better, so they are not on the field as often.

You can count on these players getting their tackle numbers more than you can count on some RB getting carries in many cases though. So I could see prioritizing players who are more reliable and consistent scoring.

The pool of IDP is larger than the offensive skill positions. So drafting offense earlier makes sense from the perspective of position scarcity.

 

[Miro Z]

It's all a question of relative value. Where can you get the best value for individual positions? In general, I would agree with the points made that you should prioritise offense over defense, with this exception: if you can get a top-notch IDP over an average offensive starter, you should definitely go for that.

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

In a dynasty IDP startup you have to appreciate the idea of building your offense first.

There are offensive players in the first dozen rounds who are more valuable than the top IDPs (early JJ Watt days most recent exception)

You have to really know The IDP landscape to employ the zero-IDP draft strategy but I'll likely have 2 QBs, 4-5 RBs, 5-6 WRs, and a 1-2 TE before I'd look at any IDPs.

The IDP studs go early but the depth doesn't. 

 

[Miro Z]

If you are drafting your #4 and #5 RBs or your #5 and #6 WRs before top IDPs your team is going to be at a massive disadvantage because your IDPs will be much weaker than your opponents. Those reserve RBs and WRs likely won't play anyway and you'll be sacrificing tons of points on IDPs.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Curious that people are giving advice while having no clue how the league scores. I'm pretty sure some of the advice above is pretty poor for leagues that score individual IDPs as highly as individual O players. 

 

[Miro Z]

Yes, IDPs score well in this league, on par with offensive players.

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

Curious that people are giving advice while having no clue how the league scores. I'm pretty sure some of the advice above is pretty poor for leagues that score individual IDPs as highly as individual O players. 

How highly individual IDPs score has no bearing on the value of taking offense before defense.

In a dynasty startup in particular, building offense depth for the next 3-5 years is so much more important than grabbing Luke Kuekley in the 6th round.

Like I said before, I used to think differently but have had better success stocking the 'O' cabinet first, but it did require that I committed more time studying IDPs.

 

[Bronco Billy]

How highly individual IDPs score has no bearing on the value of taking offense before defense.

In a dynasty startup in particular, building offense depth for the next 3-5 years is so much more important than grabbing Luke Kuekley in the 6th round.

Like I said before, I used to think differently but have had better success stocking the 'O' cabinet first, but it did require that I committed more time studying IDPs.

I couldn't disagree more dependent upon the scoring system.  

 

[Biabreakable]

Curious that people are giving advice while having no clue how the league scores. I'm pretty sure some of the advice above is pretty poor for leagues that score individual IDPs as highly as individual O players. 

It is no surprise that you choose to criticize people trying to contribute to the overall discussion.

The OP does give us information about the number of IDP starters, and that this is dynasty. Also that he has been playing dynasty for 15 years. He isn't looking for advice, but rather trying to open a discussion about the relative value of players and how that might affect draft strategy.

To your point, you are correct that different scoring systems will change the players value and their value relative to other positions. You could say that without taking shots at other posters trying to contribute to the discussion.

Nothing in my previous statement would be affected by the scoring system. So if your disagreement is with B&J why not address him directly instead of casting a wide net?

Stop being a jerk.

 

[Bronco Billy]

It is no surprise that you choose to criticize people trying to contribute to the overall discussion.

The OP does give us information about the number of IDP starters, and that this is dynasty. Also that he has been playing dynasty for 15 years. He isn't looking for advice, but rather trying to open a discussion about the relative value of players and how that might affect draft strategy.

To your point, you are correct that different scoring systems will change the players value and their value relative to other positions. You could say that without taking shots at other posters trying to contribute to the discussion.

Nothing in my previous statement would be affected by the scoring system. So if your disagreement is with B&J why not address him directly instead of casting a wide net?

Stop being a jerk.

So you are going to carry your hurt feelings from thread to thread?  If you'd stop posting opinion as though it were indisputable fact you'd get a lot less criticism.  Take your own advice.  Now I'll cease with responding to you in this thread too, so continue on if you choose or chase me to another thread if it helps your butt hurt  

Why would someone put value on advice given in a thread like this when the advice givers had no knowledge on the scoring system?  That should have been the first question asked before offering up. 

 

[FUBAR]

In general terms I draft about 90% offense in the first half and about 90% defense in the second half.

Resist the temptation to start grabbing IDP studs early. Stock your shelves with offensive studs and when your done, there will be plenty of good IDPs left at all positions.

If need be, you'll be able to trade your offensive depth for IDPs to one of the teams who thought they could crush with a team full of IDP studs and crap on offense.

In my early days, I was the guy taking the IDPs early and like they say " live and learn."

I mostly agree but slightly different. In general, I prioritize

1.core offense - these are the guys you build a team around.  Obviously studs first but also guys like Keenan allen, Malcolm Floyd and others you can count on unless they get injured. 

2. stud core defense. (Watt gets into the first group but none others).  These are the elite idp, bowman, Kuechley, ansah, etc. 

3. Young offense I think will become core.  

4a. Depending on how things have gone, 30+ yo players who will help me win now.  

4b. Young depth with talent. 

If I'm looking to stay young I'll skip 4a but never skip 4b. Young guys tend to have perceived value even if they havent done anything. 

I try to ignore position except to the extent that it impacts value.  

 

[Biabreakable]

No you are the person being passive aggressiveness taking shots at me whenever you can. So who is following who here?

You don't seem to know the difference between a fact and a opinion which is what makes your criticism baseless and personal instead of being based on reason.

If the OP wanted us to focus on a particular scoring system they likely would have posted those details. 

 

[Miro Z]

The offensive depth vs Luke Kuechly in the 6th round question actually perfectly crystallises this discussion.

I am arguing for taking Kuechly vs offensive depth, and the arithmetic of it is very simple. Given a standard scoring system in which IDPs and offensive players score at about the same rate, it is a huge advantage to have top IDPs rather than offensive depth.

A top IDP will often outscore by 6-7 points a game a lesser IDP you could get by drafting late or pick up on waivers. If you can have at least half your IDPs as top ones (something I tried to do with my team) that gives you a massive advantage of 40+ points a game against a hypothetical opponent with only average IDPs in their lineup.

And crucially, you can still get your offensive depth later in the draft. I got a lot of solid offensive and prospects drafting in rounds 20s and 30s. You can also get a bunch of talent on offense on waivers throughout the course of the season. I am talking about players like Thomas Rawls who I picked up in several leagues.

 

[FUBAR]

The offensive depth vs Luke Kuechly in the 6th round question actually perfectly crystallises this discussion.

I am arguing for taking Kuechly vs offensive depth, and the arithmetic of it is very simple. Given a standard scoring system in which IDPs and offensive players score at about the same rate, it is a huge advantage to have top IDPs rather than offensive depth.

A top IDP will often outscore by 6-7 points a game a lesser IDP you could get by drafting late or pick up on waivers. If you can have at least half your IDPs as top ones (something I tried to do with my team) that gives you a massive advantage of 40+ points a game against a hypothetical opponent with only average IDPs in their lineup.

And crucially, you can still get your offensive depth later in the draft. I got a lot of solid offensive and prospects drafting in rounds 20s and 30s. You can also get a bunch of talent on offense on waivers throughout the course of the season. I am talking about players like Thomas Rawls who I picked up in several leagues.

In the 6th? Yeah, I'm taking Kuechley over players like Crowell, Bryant, and Michael Thomas.  But I wouldn't blame anyone for taking those guys.  

 

[Bronco Billy]

So if individual D players can score as many FF pts as their O counterparts, and seeing how you don't break out DTs and CBs, I'd look at it this way:

You are starting 4 LBs. given that, I'd rate the top LBs as roughly equivalent to WR2s and would draft accordingly depending upon BPA. Treat LB1s like WR2s, LB2s like WR3s, etc. a strong LB corps will going a long ways towards doing well in this kind of league. 

The DBs are always going to be available after the top Ss go. I wouldn't put much emphasis on them in drafts unless someone like Honey Badger or his like drops what you feel is too far. You can build a decent competitive DB group by using waivers throughout the year. 

The really tricky spot is the DL. Generally they don't put up a ton of points, but any savvy IDPer knows how scarce good consistent DEs are, and with a few exceptions you will probably prefer to build your DL out of DEs instead of DTs. It is key to remember how important value is here even though scoring may be low. If you are astute with your DL selections, slipping them in after Rd4 as you see guys fall too far, you can build a very solid and strong scoring differential with this group. Always be on the lookout after the first few rounds on the draft and build them as a strong group rather than grabbing up a stud at a high price. 

Just my initial thoughts based on my experiences. 

 

[ShamrockPride]

We still need to know the scoring format for defense. Makes a big difference. Is it a big play or a tackle league?

 

[Bronco Billy]

We still need to know the scoring format for defense. Makes a big difference. Is it a big play or a tackle league?

True, but given that D players are equivalent to O players on a pt/pt level I assumed that it was a tackle dominated league. 

 

[Arodin]

It doesnt matter if the top D score the same as the top O, a lot less, or even a lot more.

What matters is the separation between the top, middle and bottom within each position.

As long as the 13th WR outscores the 25th by a lot more than the 13th linebacker outscores the 25th, I will be drafting the WR all day.

I have not yet encountered a scoring system that scaled the lower tiers of positions to be comparable, even the ones that carefully make the top 5-10 at each position have similar total fp.

 

[Bronco Billy]

It doesnt matter if the top D score the same as the top O, a lot less, or even a lot more.

What matters is the separation between the top, middle and bottom within each position.

As long as the 13th WR outscores the 25th by a lot more than the 13th linebacker outscores the 25th, I will be drafting the WR all day.

I have not yet encountered a scoring system that scaled the lower tiers of positions to be comparable, even the ones that carefully make the top 5-10 at each position have similar total fp.

So your assumption is that the league will take the top 12 LBs off the board at the same rate that it takes the top 12 WRs off the board?

i also have never been in a league like that. Not even close. 

 

[Arodin]

So your assumption is that the league will take the top 12 LBs off the board at the same rate that it takes the top 12 WRs off the board?

i also have never been in a league like that. Not even close. 

I dont necessarily expect this, no.  I have seen a lot of complex scoring systems posted on this board though, that purport to equalize the positional values.  When prople start talking about "leagues that make the top D equal to the top O" I assume it is somethng like this.

But I still expct all but one contrarian owner to go offense first because the dropoff is steeper.  If someone invents a system that normalizes the changes in value across positions then it might become feasible to take top D early, but I expect such a system to be absurdly complex...