Draft Position Strategy (1 Viewer)

[Corte]

I've gotten #2 overall in a 10 team league and I'm considering trading for a later pick. My reasoning is that with #2 I won't be able to take advantage of my preparation as much in the first round and I'll be stuck waiting a long time between picks. If I swap for a later pick I may have the opportunity to snipe players that others let drop to my spot. Using VBD I'm wondering if this is actually pointless, it does depend on other owners valuing players differently and letting them drop to me because if not I lose value since the combined value of the 2nd and 19th picks is greater than that of other combinations like 10th and 11th based on the data I'm using.

A follow-up question to not spam threads: is there an effective way to mock draft? I've been using fantasyfootballcalculator but the scoring varies significantly from my leagues and people using it seem to value players differently, for example QBs seem to drop a lot further than I have them ranked. Also Welker seems to go ages before I'd grab him even though the scoring is non-PPR.

 

[glong989]

I think both your questions go hand in hand. It all depends on who you like and how you want to draft. Try out both positions in the draft and see how you come out. If you have to have one of the top 4-5 backs then stay put with the early pick. If you can wait on RBs and wouldn't mind going WR in the first then you could trade back.

To me, unless you plan on taking 2 WRs in the first 2 rounds or Vick then I wouldn't want to be in the bottom half of a 10 man draft. Obviously you can draft well from any position but if you had a choice then 1-4 would be ideal. I have #1 and #7 in my two leagues and I plan on taking ADP with #1 and Andre followed by another top WR in the second with my #7..

I don't think there's a real definitive answer here, just depends on your player rankings and draft strategy.

As far as mocks go I use FFC as well. If your scoring settings differ widely then it might be pointless. It would help to look back at past drafts if your league has that feature and see what guys tendencies are. If you know QBs will go early plan for that and either be ready to take a Qb early or be ready with targeted guys you can poach while other take QBs if you have a late round signal caller you would be fine with.

 

[Tchula]

If you're a supporter on here DraftDominator is a great way to mock draft. IMO no way I'd swap 2 for something later. Controlling a turn can be very powerful for starting a run on a position. Having a "guaranteed" top stud RB is also too potent to give up. You'll still get a top 5 wr in the second and a top 7 QB in the third.

 

[fightingillini]

Unless you get a can't refuse offer, I would stick with the #2 pick, especially in a 10 teamer. You will get #2, #19, and #22 picks. You will get ADP or Foster, a top 7 WR and a strong RB2 or a top 5 QB. It's a great way to start a draft. Sign me up if I can get Peterson, Fitzgerald and Brees.....or Peterson, Forte and Wayne.

The RB pool is pretty thin this year....IMO, there are 15 or so solid options, then it gets a little dicey. There are 7 stud WRs, then a big tier of solid WRs. There are 7 stud QBs. At the 2 slot in a 10 teamer, you're guaranteed 3 great players, whether its RB-RB-WR, RB-WR-QB, or RB-RB-QB.

 

[Corte]

Thanks for responding guys it has been extremely helpful! I was thinking out loud and needed a sounding board, my thinking was if I'm better prepared than my fellow league members then I could reap a greater reward with a later spot scooping up a couple gems they let drop to me. However I see your points and think you're right that #2 overall is simply better, safer too since I'd be banking on other people making mistakes. I also liked the point about being able to control the turn, I've noticed in mock drafts that I can use some strategy with my picks before the turn knowing what #1 has gotten so far, again I appreciate the insight provided .

As for mock drafts, I've been done some on ffcalc using DD with their scoring/setup just to get warmed up for my drafts but recognize there's not much value to it outside of that.

 

[Tornacl]

You don't take advantage of your preparation in the first round - you make your money beginning in the 3rd/4th round IMO. Everyone always spends a lot of time agonizing over the first round, but you really make your team in the middle rounds, and you put it over the top when you can get a few late gems.

Last year, people were greatly rewarded with guys like Foster, McFadden, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dwayne Bowe, and Mike Williams (TB). Some of the guys that outproduced their draft spot by a long way. Maybe everyone was surprised to what extent they did THAT well, but there were a lot of people that specifically targeted them because they believed they'd be solid. If you spend a lot of time looking in those later rounds for guys that you think are much better than where they tend to be drafted (Eli Manning anyone?), you can be handsomely rewarded.

As far as your original post, in a normal snake draft, the higher draft picks have a huge advantage. Think about this, if I offered you a trade that I would pick first in every odd round (1, 3, 5) and you would pick first in every even round (2, 4, 6), would you take it? You shouldn't. The earlier round is always worth more, so you're better off having the first pick in the earlier round. (That's why I hate the single snake draft!)