Draft Position Valuation (1 Viewer)

[Lock Daddy]

Does anyone know of any sites that analyze which draft position has the most value? I am in a 14 team league, and we have the opportunity to select our draft positions based on a random draw.

Thanks for the help!

 

[renesauz]

I'm a firm beleiver in the idea that you can be successful from any spot.

I also believe that the "ideal spot" will differ from league to league depending on the make-up and pre-dispositions of the other owners. For example, I love drafting late when playing with a lot of unpredictable rookie FF'ers.

On the other hand, the more experianced the group, the more I like the early (2-4) picks.

BOTTOM LINE: There is no such program worth a darn, because no program can account for the personalities and trends of YOUR league!

 

[Kleck]

Here's an article I wrote back in 2001 that analyzed the serpentine draft.

http://www.footballguys.com/shickserpentine.htm

 

[Mario Kart]

I wrote one in 2004 but could not find the archive of it. The jist of it was that in a serpentine draft using FBG's value chart the #1 position had the most value.

Serpentine Total ValueValue 1 = 6,474 scoresValue 2 = 6,413 Value 3 = 6,354Value 4 = 6,304Value 5 = 6,255Value 6 = 6,215Value 7 = 6,184Value 8 = 6,153Value 9 = 6,129Value 10 = 6,112Value 11 = 6,097Value 12 = 6,090

Here is the value numbers of the draft positions using serpentine for a 12 teamer. As a 14 teamer the numbers will be lower in comparison however the difference should equal near the same.

Progressive Total ValueValue 1 = 6,370 scoresValue 2 = 6,328 Value 3 = 6,289Value 4 = 6,255Value 5 = 6,229Value 6 = 6,207Value 7 = 6,192Value 8 = 6,179Value 9 = 6,178Value 10 = 6,177Value 11 = 6,182Value 12 = 6,194

These are the numbers for a different style of drafting with the only difference being that the #1 pick gets pick #24 too but in round three the #1 gets pick #12 and then serpentine follows after that.

 

[renesauz]

Here's an article I wrote back in 2001 that analyzed the serpentine draft.

http://www.footballguys.com/shickserpentine.htm

I wrote one in 2004 but could not find the archive of it.  The jist of it was that in a serpentine draft using FBG's value chart the #1 position had the most value.

Serpentine Total Value

Value 1 = 6,474 scores

Value 2 = 6,413

Value 3 = 6,354

Value 4 = 6,304

Value 5 = 6,255

Value 6 = 6,215

Value 7 = 6,184

Value 8 = 6,153

Value 9 = 6,129

Value 10 = 6,112

Value 11 = 6,097

Value 12 = 6,090

Here is the value numbers of the draft positions using serpentine for a 12 teamer. As a 14 teamer the numbers will be lower in comparison however the difference should equal near the same.

Progressive Total Value

Value 1 = 6,370 scores

Value 2 = 6,328

Value 3 = 6,289

Value 4 = 6,255

Value 5 = 6,229

Value 6 = 6,207

Value 7 = 6,192

Value 8 = 6,179

Value 9 = 6,178

Value 10 = 6,177

Value 11 = 6,182

Value 12 = 6,194

These are the numbers for a different style of drafting with the only difference being that the #1 pick gets pick #24 too but in round three the #1 gets pick #12 and then serpentine follows after that.

The problem with these analyses is that they assume something huge...that players will all be drafted strictly by their real end of season values. At least the article by Shick admits that the difference in the totals in the end are not very big. In other words, in a perfect world, the early picks are SLIGHTLY better. But if we KNEW AHEAD OF TIME who would outscore who and by how much, why would we play at all?This leads me back to my posting....with guppies, I want to be late because I know they'll screw up a lot and I'll steal a ton of value later then I should, especially near the 1/2 and 3/4 turns. In an experianced league where guys are more likely to draft closer to true numberical results, the early picks give a VERY SLIGHT advantage. IN the end, the difference is how YOU project, and what value plays YOU are able to make, both in the draft and during the season.

Way too much emphasis is placed on draft position, IMHO.

 

[Lock Daddy]

Thanks for the input guys. My problem is that I am in a 14 team league, so the 12 team valuation is invalid. I assume that the 12-14 spots might be better in a a 14 team league due to the value associated with top RBs. I also assume that the valuations are going to change from year to year based on player values and ADP.

Is there any tool out there that incorporates similar assumptions in order to give a "best guess" of which position has the most value to draft from?

 

[Mario Kart]

Thanks for the input guys. My problem is that I am in a 14 team league, so the 12 team valuation is invalid. I assume that the 12-14 spots might be better in a a 14 team league due to the value associated with top RBs. I also assume that the valuations are going to change from year to year based on player values and ADP.

Is there any tool out there that incorporates similar assumptions in order to give a "best guess" of which position has the most value to draft from?

The 12 team valuation is valid. All you have to do is add 13 and 14 and they have less value then 12. In short, the #1 pick is most valuable to have.

 

[Kleck]

Thanks for the input guys.  My problem is that I am in a 14 team league, so the 12 team valuation is invalid.  I assume that the 12-14 spots might be better in a a 14 team league due to the value associated with top RBs.  I also assume that the valuations are going to change from year to year based on player values and ADP. 

Is there any tool out there that incorporates similar assumptions in order to give a "best guess" of which position has the most value to draft from?

The 12 team valuation is valid. All you have to do is add 13 and 14 and they have less value then 12. In short, the #1 pick is most valuable to have.

I agree, but this assumes you know which players will score the highest. The better plan is to determine which player(s) will score the highest and take a good look at the ADP of those players.For instance, if you think Stephen Jackson will be the top player in the coming year the top pick would be sort of silly. You should be happy with pick six or seven if you want to know you've got Jackson locked in.