Draft strategy for QB crazy league (1 Viewer)

[Mr. Deltoid]

My 16 team league switched passing TDs from 4 points to 6 two years ago. In the two drafts since this change was made, people are absolutely NUTS drafting QBs early. What is the shark play here? My instinct is to say "wait", and I have no problem going QBBC - in fact, I'd love to. But looking at ADP, if I wait for 15 quarterbacks to come off the board then I am picking from guys like Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Stafford, Henne and VY. Now I can live with a committee of these guys, but last year, here's the breakdown of when QBs went:

Round 1 - 6

Round 2 - 1

Round 3 - 5

Round 4 - 4 (by this point all 16 teams have drafted a QB)

Round 5 - 3

That's all the starters and *3 BACKUPS* by the end of round 5! Like I said, insane. Anyway sharks, what is my move? I see two options.

1) I will probably be drafting either #9 or #10. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will probably be gone, but I take one of them if still available and if not slightly reach for Peyton Manning. If he's gone, REALLY reach for Brady or Romo.

2) Wait until at least round 3. If X number of QBs have been taken keep waiting, if not take the best guy available. Do the same with my 4th rounder.

I don't love either option. One I'm not getting any value for my top pick, one I'm possibly spending a 3rd rounder on Matthew Stafford. Do I have a third option?

Thanks guys,

Mr. D

 

[fightingillini]

Your situation is different from a typical league.

You have two choices

1) Take a solid starting QB very early or

2) Take 2 in rounds 3-6 and either play QBBC or hope one breaks out.

My question to you is.....how many QBs are you comfortable with as your everyweek starter? Mine is 9. So based on your previous draft, you're likely not going to get one with the 3.10 selection....so you will need to take your QB with your 1st or 2nd round selection.

If you want a top 5 QB, you need to take one in round 1. At the #10 slot, assuming the top 4 RBs, Gore, AJ, Rodgers, Manning, and Brees are gone. Worst case scenario for you IMO. Your options are 1) take SJackson and take the best QB available at the 2.7 pick....you'll likely get Rivers or EManning. Or 2) take Romo with the 10 pick and take the best RB available at 2.7. Personally, I would look in the 2nd round for a QB and you'll likely get Rivers or E Manning who are solid options. You won't get SJackson or Turner or DAngelo or Mendenhall with your 2.7 pick.

Now if you're comfortable with 15 QBs as your starter (add Cutler, Flacco, Ryan, Kolb, Palmer and McNabb to the list) then you have some options. 1st round - Take P Manning with the 1.10 if available. 2nd round - take Rivers if available. If not, then lock up a Joe Flacco or Kevin Kolb in round 3 and back him up with a Chad Henne or Alex Smith a couple of rounds later.

Unfortunately you will need to take a QB very early. Otherwise you're looking at Leinart or Garrard as your starter....and you don't want that.

 

[Mr. Deltoid]

moved to the correct forum, sorry

 

[TitansFan10]

moved to the correct forum, sorry

Romo isn't such a reach. I'd wait and then draft him. Look at his help this year, he'll be awesome.

 

[gandalas]

I would say that if 6 QBs were taken in the first last season, then a like number will be taken this season as well, especially considering how well the top 6-7 did last season.

I would definitely say that if 1 of Rodgers, Peyton, Brees, or Romo is still there at your pick in the 1st, I would look long and hard at them. Those 4 are definitely above the rest of the field as far as I am concerned, and any of them I would be happy as my QB1. Brady, Shaub, Rivers and maybe Cutler are options in round 2.

I don't honestly know how long you can afford to wait in a league like that one. This year especially, I would want to ensure that I get one of the top-10 options.

 

[TeamSnooki]

If you can get Brees or Rodgers, then you absolutely have to do it. I guess that would be assuming no QB run early in the 1st, but expecting a huge one later in the 1st or early in the 2nd. At this point, I think Brees or Rodgers belong in the top 9 or 10 in most leagues, especially 6 pt per TD leagues.

I'd take Manning too given the chance. If everyone else is taking QBs early, then you're not losing value with the pick. You'll be ahead of any guys after you who pick a QB in their first two rds.

If those 3 are gone, I think I'd recommend passing on the QB in rd 1. I would rather have Gore or Andre than Brady or Romo.

In round 2 - I'd take Brady, Romo, Schaub or Rivers if they were there. That's gonna be your last chance to get one of the top QBs.

After that it gets really tricky. With all these teams passing on RBs and WRs, there will be a lot of guys at those positions slipping. Personally I have 14 QBs that I would consider start worthy in a 16 team league. I guess I would pick one in the 3rd if I didn't think that any of them would be around in the 4th, but I'd prefer to wait until the 4th at that point.

Then I'd try to get to a sleeper to either pair in a QBBC or for trades to someone who missed out.

I just can't see waiting until after the QB run and getting the 16th & 17th best QBs or something

 

[CalBear]

Wait until QB value starts appearing. That might not be until round 6 or 7 or later. But with six QBs going in the first round, there will be huge value at other positions, and you'll gain more at those positions than you lose at QB. Start with a QBBC and work the waiver wire and you'll be fine.

 

[Mr. Deltoid]

Wait until QB value starts appearing. That might not be until round 6 or 7 or later. But with six QBs going in the first round, there will be huge value at other positions, and you'll gain more at those positions than you lose at QB. Start with a QBBC and work the waiver wire and you'll be fine.

I want to agree with you but I just can't... yes I will net some nice value in the early rounds, but if my QBBC is Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez it will probably not have been worth it. But thanks for your $0.02.Mr. D

 

[CalBear]

Wait until QB value starts appearing. That might not be until round 6 or 7 or later. But with six QBs going in the first round, there will be huge value at other positions, and you'll gain more at those positions than you lose at QB. Start with a QBBC and work the waiver wire and you'll be fine.

I want to agree with you but I just can't... yes I will net some nice value in the early rounds, but if my QBBC is Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez it will probably not have been worth it. But thanks for your $0.02.

Do you have evidence that you'll do better picking a QB early in a league like this? It seems pretty implausible.Here's some data for you. Let's take three QBs who were QB15-17 in 2009: Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, and Joe Flacco. They all played 16 games as mediocre fantasy options. They averaged 17.5, 17.4, and 16.7 points per game. What would it have been like to use them in QBBC?Well, if you managed to choose the right one every week, you would have scored 23.2 points per game. Even if you only averaged choosing the second-best one, you would have averaged 21.2 points per game.23.2 points per game would have been just a notch below Drew Brees as the #3 QB. 21.2 points per game would have put you in the top 10. So, a monkey with a dartboard can give you top-10 QB production from a mediocre QBBC, and if you can do better than that, you can get close to elite production.

 

[elshagon]

I'm in a similar league, here's my thoughts:

If you're lucky and get an early first round pick then choose one of the top QB's, Brees, Rogers, Manning, Romo, or Brady. By doing this you've locked up a top QB and everyone else will be taking QB's in the early rounds that aren't as good as yours. Since they're taking a QB other players will drop to you. In my 14 team league last year 11 QB's went in the first 2 rounds. That means if you took the first QB off the board then 10 of the next 28 picks were spent on QB's not as good as yours. This means a lot of RB's and WR's drop to you.

 

[Mr. Deltoid]

Wait until QB value starts appearing. That might not be until round 6 or 7 or later. But with six QBs going in the first round, there will be huge value at other positions, and you'll gain more at those positions than you lose at QB. Start with a QBBC and work the waiver wire and you'll be fine.

I want to agree with you but I just can't... yes I will net some nice value in the early rounds, but if my QBBC is Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez it will probably not have been worth it. But thanks for your $0.02.

Do you have evidence that you'll do better picking a QB early in a league like this? It seems pretty implausible.Here's some data for you. Let's take three QBs who were QB15-17 in 2009: Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, and Joe Flacco. They all played 16 games as mediocre fantasy options. They averaged 17.5, 17.4, and 16.7 points per game. What would it have been like to use them in QBBC?Well, if you managed to choose the right one every week, you would have scored 23.2 points per game. Even if you only averaged choosing the second-best one, you would have averaged 21.2 points per game.23.2 points per game would have been just a notch below Drew Brees as the #3 QB. 21.2 points per game would have put you in the top 10. So, a monkey with a dartboard can give you top-10 QB production from a mediocre QBBC, and if you can do better than that, you can get close to elite production.

I agree with your premise. And I love the idea of going QBBC this year. Honestly, the ideal strategy for me would be to take Stafford in the 7th-8th, Chad Henne in the 8th-9th and David Garrard in the 11th or something like that. But when you have to take them in rounds 4-5-6 instead... hard to swallow. Mr. D

 

[LittlePhatty]

My 16 team league....

You've said enough.A 16 team league means that the bottom of the barrel will be scraped on draft day.

Trent Edwards & Jake Delhomme will be on someone's team instead of floating out on the waiver wire.

I'd rather take "solid" QB early.

I wouldn't hesitate at all to take Brady, Romo or Rivers towards the end of Round 1 in a 16 Team League that you know is going QB crazy.

You can't get hung up on what a website says the ADP should be, or what other people consider a "reach" in their own league.

It's not a reach in a league where 19 QBs are gone by the end of Round 5.

Let's say that is twice the "normal" QB rate, and in a typical league 9 QBs are gone by the end of Round 5.

That means in your league there will be 10 higher-valued players (a mix of RBs and WRs) to be had later than their typical website ADP listing.

Sure, it feels wrong to take Brady at 1.9, but if everyone else goes QB crazy too that means you make it up next round when you get Miles Austin at 2.8

 

[CalBear]

Sure, it feels wrong to take Brady at 1.9, but if everyone else goes QB crazy too that means you make it up next round when you get Miles Austin at 2.8

No, it doesn't mean that at all. Miles Austin will still be there at 2.8 if you take a more deserving player at 1.9. Gore+Austin is better than Brady+Austin, no matter what anyone else is taking.

 

[Chaka]

Changing passing TDs from 4 to 6 doesn't really impact the relative value of QBs to each other. It diminishes the value of a QB who runs for TDs (Young, Rogers) but other than that the difference between QB1 & QB16 is pretty much the same.

Grab up the value at RB and WR early, wait for the QB run to end then pick 2-3 in the middle rounds.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

This seems like a league which is so wacky that if you don't react to it that you'll be the one who suffers.

I've played in leagues such as this where QBs fly off the board in rounds 1 & 2 and I thought I was golden just waiting for my QB. While people are drafting QBs high, it seems you are getting good value RBs and WRs, but then when it comes to picking up your QBs later, there are still valuable RBs and WRs on the board but you need to take bottom of the barrel QBs just to actually get some starting QBs before the league starts taking their backups.

League tendencies certainly outweigh ADP and VBD principles.

If everyone is taking QBs early, then it means that valuable RBs and WRs are falling anyways. I say take the top-end QB in the 1st if you expect the QB tendency to be the same and don't look back.

 

[David Dodds]

Wait until QB value starts appearing. That might not be until round 6 or 7 or later. But with six QBs going in the first round, there will be huge value at other positions, and you'll gain more at those positions than you lose at QB. Start with a QBBC and work the waiver wire and you'll be fine.

I want to agree with you but I just can't... yes I will net some nice value in the early rounds, but if my QBBC is Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez it will probably not have been worth it. But thanks for your $0.02.

Do you have evidence that you'll do better picking a QB early in a league like this? It seems pretty implausible.Here's some data for you. Let's take three QBs who were QB15-17 in 2009: Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, and Joe Flacco. They all played 16 games as mediocre fantasy options. They averaged 17.5, 17.4, and 16.7 points per game. What would it have been like to use them in QBBC?Well, if you managed to choose the right one every week, you would have scored 23.2 points per game. Even if you only averaged choosing the second-best one, you would have averaged 21.2 points per game.23.2 points per game would have been just a notch below Drew Brees as the #3 QB. 21.2 points per game would have put you in the top 10. So, a monkey with a dartboard can give you top-10 QB production from a mediocre QBBC, and if you can do better than that, you can get close to elite production.

This is how I would approach it. I would want to grab a couple of these guys: Garrard (plays good at home generally), Alex Smith (has a lot better line and is undervalued), Carson Palmer (people seem to be in two camps whether his arm is shot...if he rebounds, they have the weapons), Matt Cassell (the team has to throw and plays in a week conference), Vince Young (will run for enough yards and scores to have value some weeks).These guys aren't sexy for sure, but neither is over-reaching to get a Matt Schaub type of player

 

[greggorymac]

Either grab Manning/Romo with your first pick or forget QB all together and not start to draft your QBBC until after the top 11 QBs are off the board. If you miss out on the top 4 QBs, there's no sense in wasting your pick on QBs 5-10 because there is not much value there. Good luck!

 

[ZWK]

When do the last potentially startable QBs get drafted? If they go late, then I'd get value at other positions early and plan on taking two of Garrard/Cassel/Young/Leinart/etc. late to go QBBC (or maybe taking Roethlisberger in the middle rounds if he falls). But if even the Garrard/Cassel/etc. tier gets taken in the middle rounds, then I think you have to reach to get a good QB early (like Manning in the 1st or Rivers in the 2nd) and then wait as long as you can to take your backup. Spending a 1st on Manning and a 12th on Josh Freeman is better than spending a 7th & 8th on Garrard & Cassel.

You do not want to end up taking a low-end starter in the 3rd-5th round, because then you're blowing an early pick to have one of the worst starting QBs in the league.

 

[fightingillini]

Wait until QB value starts appearing. That might not be until round 6 or 7 or later. But with six QBs going in the first round, there will be huge value at other positions, and you'll gain more at those positions than you lose at QB. Start with a QBBC and work the waiver wire and you'll be fine.

I want to agree with you but I just can't... yes I will net some nice value in the early rounds, but if my QBBC is Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez it will probably not have been worth it. But thanks for your $0.02.

Do you have evidence that you'll do better picking a QB early in a league like this? It seems pretty implausible.Here's some data for you. Let's take three QBs who were QB15-17 in 2009: Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, and Joe Flacco. They all played 16 games as mediocre fantasy options. They averaged 17.5, 17.4, and 16.7 points per game. What would it have been like to use them in QBBC?Well, if you managed to choose the right one every week, you would have scored 23.2 points per game. Even if you only averaged choosing the second-best one, you would have averaged 21.2 points per game.23.2 points per game would have been just a notch below Drew Brees as the #3 QB. 21.2 points per game would have put you in the top 10. So, a monkey with a dartboard can give you top-10 QB production from a mediocre QBBC, and if you can do better than that, you can get close to elite production.

This is how I would approach it. I would want to grab a couple of these guys: Garrard (plays good at home generally), Alex Smith (has a lot better line and is undervalued), Carson Palmer (people seem to be in two camps whether his arm is shot...if he rebounds, they have the weapons), Matt Cassell (the team has to throw and plays in a week conference), Vince Young (will run for enough yards and scores to have value some weeks).These guys aren't sexy for sure, but neither is over-reaching to get a Matt Schaub type of player

I would normally agree with this as well. But the problem here is you likely need to spend two picks between rounds 4-6 to secure it. Based on the current FBG rankings, Palmer is 15, VY is 16, Garrard is 18, A Smith is 19, and Cassel is 22. You will likely need a 4th to secure Palmer or VY. Garrard and A Smith will likely be 5th rounders. And Cassel will be a 6th based on the orignal poster's last draft results.Now the question really is....which is better.....taking one top QB like Manning in Round 1 or Rivers in round 2 and not take a backup until late, or spending two fairly early picks on a midrange QBBC. Not sure. The original poster needs to mock it out and see. Potentially having to take 2 QBs with your first 6 picks could hurt your team depth at other positions.If I knew that I can secure two of these guys with a 7th and 8th round picks, then this strategy is correct.

 

[smackdaddies]

Draft Early or Draft Late - either take one of your top 3/4 qb in round 1 or start late and take 3 in a row. I really don't see any value in taking a middle (5-12) qb.

If I drafted in the top 5 I would go with the late qb strat, if i drafted 6-12 the early qb, 13-16 your probably forced to take the draft late qb (assuming the top 3 qb are gone)

My general expereince has been that people mis value late round qbs, leaving good pickings if you go that strat. Having said that, I have been burned by waiting just one round to late

 

[Mr. Deltoid]

Thanks a lot all. The sharks deliver as usual.



I think I just have to bite the bullet and take a top 3-5 QB in the first round. Sweating whether or not to draft Matt Cassel in the 5th round is a situation I would REALLY like to avoid.

Just to ask, does anyone feel really strongly about a QB that is outside the top 20? The only one I am definitely going to target is Jason Campbell. I think that guy is going to really illustrate just how bad JaMarcus Russell was. With pretty much the exact same offense around him I think it's very possible - even likely - he finishes the season as a QB1 in this 16 team league.

Mr. D

 

[fridayfrenzy]

You do not want to end up taking a low-end starter in the 3rd-5th round, because then you're blowing an early pick to have one of the worst starting QBs in the league.

I don't like the QBBC approach in a league like this for exactly the above reason. You still have to use a semi-high pick on a bad QB, but it also means you need to burn two/three semi-high picks on QBs to ensure you just don't have a QB like Chad Henne as your lone starter.

 

[fightingillini]

You do not want to end up taking a low-end starter in the 3rd-5th round, because then you're blowing an early pick to have one of the worst starting QBs in the league.

I don't like the QBBC approach in a league like this for exactly the above reason. You still have to use a semi-high pick on a bad QB, but it also means you need to burn two/three semi-high picks on QBs to ensure you just don't have a QB like Chad Henne as your lone starter.

Which is what I exactly outlined in my response to David Dodds. To get a decent midrange QBBC, you need to take 2QBs with your first 6 picks. I am not a big fan of that.The QBBC approach works much better in a 12 team league, where you can wait until round 7 or so to take your first QB and have it be in the top 15.

 

[CalBear]

You do not want to end up taking a low-end starter in the 3rd-5th round, because then you're blowing an early pick to have one of the worst starting QBs in the league.

I don't like the QBBC approach in a league like this for exactly the above reason. You still have to use a semi-high pick on a bad QB, but it also means you need to burn two/three semi-high picks on QBs to ensure you just don't have a QB like Chad Henne as your lone starter.

Which is what I exactly outlined in my response to David Dodds. To get a decent midrange QBBC, you need to take 2QBs with your first 6 picks. I am not a big fan of that.The QBBC approach works much better in a 12 team league, where you can wait until round 7 or so to take your first QB and have it be in the top 15.

The interesting thing is not whether you're taking the 15th QB in the draft, it's whether you're taking the QB who will score the 15th most points.The three QBs I mentioned above (Campbell, Orton, and Flacco) were all taken as QB#20 or later. So were Sanchez and Stafford. I think it is entirely possible to build a decent QBBC with QBs taken as #20 or later, plus waiver wire picks.My experience in the Anarchy leagues (start 2 team QBs) is that the lowest ranked QBs are the best values. You can pick up a QB in the 18th round who is likely to perform much better than QB#32.