Draft Strategy (1 Viewer)

[DeeJayK]

I've always been a bit of an "old school" drafter, preferring to lock up my top two RBs in the first two (or maybe three) rounds. However, that strategy seems to have become less effective the last few years and I've been reading several articles (Matt Waldman's "Crank Scores" series on FBG, Sigmund Bloom's analysis on the Audible podcast, "The Best Damn Draft Method" article on another site, etc.) arguing very persuasively that drafting WRs high might be a better value proposition. My main league is a start 2RB, 3WR, 0.5 PPR 12-team league.

I've participated in a bunch of mock drafts after re-working my cheat sheets with this strategy in mind. However, it seems like EVERYONE is trying to follow this "draft WRs early" strategy, and it seems to me like WRs are not presenting great value. I've been in more than one mock where the big 4 top-tier WRs (Fitz, Randy and the two Johnsons) are all off the board in the top 8 or 9 picks. In these cases, I've found the value of the RBs available to me at the round 1-2 turn (drafting in the 10-12 slots) is simply too good to pass up in favor of the tier-2 WRs that are on the board. For example, I've been to get SJax/Gore (from the #9 slot) and CJ3/LT2 (from the #10 slot). So now I've ended up pursuing the "old school" strategy I've eschewed in an effort to maximize value.

My question is: am I better off trying to maximize value (the VBD strategy) or should I stick to my guns and pursue WRs regardless of the perceived value, given that the early WR run means that premier RBs may be available slightly later than might be expected?

 

[two_dollars]

If too many go WR/WR then go ahead and go RB/RB when 2 studs slip to you, then go ahead and grab a slew of mid tier wr's while they scramble to hit on which guy puts up the best numbers in a RBBC. WR/WR was good when 1 or 2 did it. If 3 or 4 do it, the value is elsewhere.

You gotta rise above it, you gotta harvest the good energy and block out the bad. Harvest energy, block bad. Feel the flow, feel it, it's circular. Its like a carousel. You pay the quarter, you get on the horse, and you go up and down and around...in a circular circle with the music, the flow, all good things.

 

[Jayrok]

If you draft 2nd tier WR just to stay with your strategy you are basically following the others in the WR "run". If they grab the top 4 WR in front of you, by all means, grab the best two RBs on the board.

Sometimes the strategy you go in with flies out the door when you draft with other people. Go with the flow and be flexible. You'll have good talent come back to you when all those other guys are scrambling to draft RB in rounds 3, 4 and 5.

 

[ivnabru]

I think it's best to avoid going in with a strategy and just take top value. If everyone's going RB take WRs, if everyone's going WR go RB. I think people get too rigid about their first couple rounds or try and follow runs and put themselves in a bad situation. When PPRs first became popular people hadn't switched to WRs quickly enough to reflect their new value and if you grabbed WRs early you'd put yourself in a great position, now people have fully shifted over and that value isn't really there like it used to be.

 

[Stryker]

I think it's best to avoid going in with a strategy and just take top value. If everyone's going RB take WRs, if everyone's going WR go RB. I think people get too rigid about their first couple rounds or try and follow runs and put themselves in a bad situation. When PPRs first became popular people hadn't switched to WRs quickly enough to reflect their new value and if you grabbed WRs early you'd put yourself in a great position, now people have fully shifted over and that value isn't really there like it used to be.

 

[jah2707]

I think it's best to avoid going in with a strategy and just take top value. If everyone's going RB take WRs, if everyone's going WR go RB. I think people get too rigid about their first couple rounds or try and follow runs and put themselves in a bad situation. When PPRs first became popular people hadn't switched to WRs quickly enough to reflect their new value and if you grabbed WRs early you'd put yourself in a great position, now people have fully shifted over and that value isn't really there like it used to be.

It all depends on who you draft with. For instance I love using fantasy football calculator for mock drafts but they were busy the other day and I had to go to cbs mock drafts. My team couldn't have been any different. WRs went really fast so I went RB RB and at the end of the draft I was really not doing well on wrs and there were still rb I could have played in the flex spot.

 

[shredhead]

If you draft 2nd tier WR just to stay with your strategy you are basically following the others in the WR "run". If they grab the top 4 WR in front of you, by all means, grab the best two RBs on the board. Sometimes the strategy you go in with flies out the door when you draft with other people. Go with the flow and be flexible. You'll have good talent come back to you when all those other guys are scrambling to draft RB in rounds 3, 4 and 5.

The one thing I would add for the OP is to keep in mind that these are just mocks. Other people are trying the WR early strategy to see how it works for them. They may not pick that way in their real drafts. I'd bet dollars to donuts that all of the big 4 WR's won't be gone by 8 or 9 in your real draft. Be flexible and have an open mind going in and you should be fine.

 

[DeeJayK]

all, for your wise opinions.

I share your sentiments that you have to be flexible during the draft. I just wanted to see what the great football minds in this thread thought of going in with (and adhering to) a particular strategy.

 

[Cenobite]

I think it's best to avoid going in with a strategy and just take top value. If everyone's going RB take WRs, if everyone's going WR go RB. I think people get too rigid about their first couple rounds or try and follow runs and put themselves in a bad situation. When PPRs first became popular people hadn't switched to WRs quickly enough to reflect their new value and if you grabbed WRs early you'd put yourself in a great position, now people have fully shifted over and that value isn't really there like it used to be.

It all depends on who you draft with. For instance I love using fantasy football calculator for mock drafts but they were busy the other day and I had to go to cbs mock drafts. My team couldn't have been any different. WRs went really fast so I went RB RB and at the end of the draft I was really not doing well on wrs and there were still rb I could have played in the flex spot.

With more teams using a RBBC approach you will find more viable RBs in the middle rounds. Rather than select a 2nd tier WR I think I may go Brady/Brees in the 2nd. I will probably go WR/RB/RB in no particular order in rounds 3-5. I will also select a premier D or TE before their ADP rather than settle for mix and match Rbs and Wrs.

 

[RalphMouth]

Last year I drafted in the 8th slot and took Portis as my 1.08 pick. The draft came back around and I

took R. Wayne at 2.05 and then Steve Smith at 3.08 (two game suspension dropped his ADP)

I thought cool !! I have two stud WRs !! however ....

running backs flew off the boards after my 3rd round pick and I got McFadden as my #2 back

in the 4th round... and I struggled all year.

Smith was for the most part decent but Wayne fizzled and it seemed like I never had a week where

BOTH stud WRs had great games. To top it off I now had a bad RB situation. Portis was great early in

the season but McFadden tanked. I was able to get Pierre Thomas and he exploded at the time Portis

has his lates season troubles. My team was behind the eight ball all season.

IMHO I'm going back to RB/RB as they tend to be more consistent if they are studs.

I have the 1st pick so ADP & Pierre Thomas or Ronnie Brown look like a great start to my 09 team.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Best way to draft is to rank your players and follow ADP so that you don't reach too early or wait too long to get the guys you want.

If you go in wanting WR, WR WR but in the 2nd Rd Forte is still there because everyone went WR in the 1st then look at ADP of 1.05 and realize he's a STEAL there....whereas R. White might be the best WR left but his ADP is 3.01...not great value there.

The above is just for reference...ADP aren't meant to be accurate.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Last year I drafted in the 8th slot and took Portis as my 1.08 pick. The draft came back around and I

took R. Wayne at 2.05 and then Steve Smith at 3.08 (two game suspension dropped his ADP)

I thought cool !! I have two stud WRs !! however ....

running backs flew off the boards after my 3rd round pick and I got McFadden as my #2 back

in the 4th round... and I struggled all year.

Smith was for the most part decent but Wayne fizzled and it seemed like I never had a week where

BOTH stud WRs had great games. To top it off I now had a bad RB situation. Portis was great early in

the season but McFadden tanked. I was able to get Pierre Thomas and he exploded at the time Portis

has his lates season troubles. My team was behind the eight ball all season.

IMHO I'm going back to RB/RB as they tend to be more consistent if they are studs.

I have the 1st pick so ADP & Pierre Thomas or Ronnie Brown look like a great start to my 09 team.

I think this has been refutted but i don' have the evidence with me. I believe there is more turnover with the top 10 RBs than any other position. Trying to dig up that article but can't find it.

 

[kutta]

I think drafting in the 10-12 hole this year is great. If everyone grabs RB's early, you get a couple stud WR's or a Brady or Brees. If everyone grabs QB's and WR's early you get some real stud RB's. Anyone in the 10-12 hole should start their team with two rocks, and you should not go into your draft with a pre-determined idea of who you want in those spots. Take the best value, your highest rated studs, and worry about filling in the holes later.

 

[jwb]

You gotta rise above it, you gotta harvest the good energy and block out the bad. Harvest energy, block bad. Feel the flow, feel it, it's circular. Its like a carousel. You pay the quarter, you get on the horse, and you go up and down and around...in a circular circle with the music, the flow, all good things.

This sounds like every sales meeting I've ever been in.

 

[sinatravolta]

I think the tiers are important to keep in mind here. Right now - I like Peterson, MJD and Turner and after that I don't see a lot of differentiation between SJax, Forte, Slaton, D Williams, C Johnson, Gore, Tomlinson. At WR - I think there's a break after the top 4. So - if I were in this situation - assuming my 3 top RBs are gone but one of the top 4 WRs (or more) are left - I probably take a top WR. For your 2nd pick - you hope that one of those 2nd tier RBs are still there but if not then you debate whether you'd rather have Portis/Jacobs or a 2nd tier WR.

Other reasons why WR/WR has become more popular (aside from rewarding receptions):

- when I started, most leagues were 2 RB, 2 WR and now it's almost always 2 RBs and 3 WRs

- WRs were generally thought of as splitting the load, but now most RBs are too - so the scarcity and extreme drop-offs for RBs isn't really different from WRs anymore

Finally - if you need to have 2 RBs and 3 WRs starting, to me taking WR/WR isn't that risky a strategy. You still need to fill in RBs AND another WR. You haven't filled up either position. Same with RB/WR or WR/RB - in this case you need 1 RB and 2 WRs. The "risky" strategy in my view is the RB/RB - because now you need 3 WRs to start and another good RB is only so valuable. You are more often forced to reach or settle in this situation.