Don't panic if some goalline work does go to Jacobs. Tiki's 2005 was down 4 rushing TDs from 2006. His 2006 scores are as follows:
21yd Rush
6 yd Pass
12yd Rush
16yd Rush
4yd Rush
4yd Rush
3yd Rush
4yd Pass
41yd Rush
20yd Rush
95yd Rush
Giving away 3-4 TDs to Jacobs lets Tiki stay fresh and perhaps he can break off more of those 20+ yard scores. 3 fewer TDs still doesn't move him out of the #4 spot.
3-4 won't matter much but 10 will. Jacobs will take that many TDs. He took 7 last year and I cannot think he'll take less this year.Projections for Tiki - assuming he's healthy all year, 1250 rush, 400 rec, 6 TDs. That's 12ish ranked RB in my book. That's also right around his 2003 year.
Downside risks:
-Age
-Jacobs
-Workload previous years (4 straight years of 350+ touches, with 400+ last year).
-
Absoutely BRUTAL schedule to open the year (Indy, Phi, Sea, BYE, Wash, Atl, Dal, TB).
-see also Dillon, Corey; Taylor, Fred; Davis, Stephen; Faulk, Marshall.
Upside:
-Eli gets better, opening up running lanes.
-What else??? That's it IMO.
If you draft Tiki at 4 you will not be happy through week 8.
Everyone keeps bringing up the tough run schedule. That would be great for a guy like Rudi who gets about 95% of his yards on the ground, but Tiki has averaged about 540 yards receiving the last 4 years. Because of that, you can't put as much weight on his rushing total.Also he went for 340 total yards and a TD against WASH last year in 2 games, and 178 total yards against SEA, and 329 total yards and a TD against PHIL in 2 games. You say a game against IND will be tough, I see a shoot out were Tiki racks up many yards on draws and receptions. In that same type of game Rudi would be on the bench for a 3rd down RB.
With your projects I guess he's going to go from 5.2 yd/carry to about 4.5 yd/carry while also going from 357 carries to about 275. He'll also either drop down to about 44 catches or drop his career yard/catch of 8.9 down to about 7.5 on his usual 53 receptions. By the way, he started 2005 with only 7 rec's in his first 5 games, then went off with 47 rec's in the last 11 games. To me that says it took young Eli a little while to realize what he had, then took advantage of it. I see his receptions on the rise.
I can see an arguement for other RB's in a non PPR leagues, but to say Tiki is outside the top 10 is a joke. Every other RB, outside of the top 3 have just as many worries as Tiki, and none of them outside of maybe Edge and an injured Portis have came close to his production. Take Rudi, with his very limited upside, and he too will be steady, or take a RB your hoping will have his 1st great year ever and it could cost you your draft.
To answer the question, keep the #4 pick and take Brown or Rudi.
