Draft trends you're noticing this year (1 Viewer)

[ignatiusjreilly]

Leaving this pretty open: For those who have already drafted (or even those who have done a ton of mocks), what are you seeing this year that's different (or the same) from previous years?

I don't have my first draft until tomorrow night, but I'll start with a few I've noticed in mocks (tomorrow's draft is a 12-team PPR, so that's what I've been mocking. YMMV):

• I've seen this mentioned elsewhere, but I find it almost impossible to find a second-round pick I'm really happy with. If I start with a RB in the first, I can't find a great WR1 in the second. Same if I start with a WR. And if I double up a position in the first two, then I really feel behind the 8-ball on the other position. I'm coming around on some of the 2nd rounders (Henry, GWilson, Olave) but it still feels like their upsides are capped. I sometimes end up going further down the ADP depth chart to grab guys I think have more upside, like Aiyuk or DJ Moore
• On the other hand -- and this is a huge departure from years past -- I'm finding it easier and easier to find an RB in the 4th or 5th that I'm totally comfortable with slotting in as my RB2. Guys like Cook, Kamara, and Conner feel like screaming values
• I'm totally comfortable waiting on QB this year. Murray is the only one I'd probably be willing to stretch a little for, although if he keeps moving up into the 4th I'm not sure I could pull the trigger. In part, that's because there are lots of guys going late who I'd also be fine with. Love and Dak are a tier behind him, and beyond that I'd probably look to team one of the more boring options like Goff, Tua, Herbert or TLaw with riskier higher upside guys like Daniels (although he may be creeping up as well)
• On the other hand, TE feels like there's more of a dropoff this year after the top group. The Big Four (Kelce, SLP, McBride and Andrews) all seem to be going in the first four rounds. Kittle often falls to the 5th, which I'd feel pretty good with. But after that it gets dicey. I'm out on Kincaid. and Pitts. Guys like Engram or Njoku scare me. Ferguson seems like a solid-enough option. And then it gets really bad.

What are you guys seeing?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Olave & London are falling like Rocks. London still 2nd, but Olave frequently to the early-to-mid 3rd. I think Olave is a mistake, but London's price is normalizing.

Pittman is also falling way way too far.

People are wising up on BRob, but Eke's ADP seems to be holding, which is a weird combo of events.

Rookie WRs are rising, including some that shouldn't. Burton is the Bengals WR4, and likely isn't headed for a meaningful role in 2024 unless there's injury. And even then I'm a little skeptical.

Dotson is getting drafted higher now than he was when he was believed to be the WR2 in WAS, which is bizarre. I wouldn't touch him. Samuel's turf toe isn't worrying others as much as it's worrying me.

Finally, Aiyuk's ADP has remained remarkably consistent. I wouldn't touch him anywhere near that.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Olave & London are falling like Rocks. London still 2nd, but Olave frequently to the early-to-mid 3rd. I think Olave is a mistake, but London's price is normalizing.

Pittman is also falling way way too far.

People are wising up on BRob, but Eke's ADP seems to be holding, which is a weird combo of events.

Rookie WRs are rising, including some that shouldn't. Burton is the Bengals WR4, and likely isn't headed for a meaningful role in 2024 unless there's injury. And even then I'm a little skeptical.

Dotson is getting drafted higher now than he was when he was believed to be the WR2 in WAS, which is bizarre. I wouldn't touch him. Samuel's turf toe isn't worrying others as much as it's worrying me.

Finally, Aiyuk's ADP has remained remarkably consistent. I wouldn't touch him anywhere near that.

Man, I hate when the market starts getting rationalized. It may still be possible to get Rashee Rice late because of default ADP settings, but I feel like people are starting to wake up to the fact that he's unlikely to be suspended.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Olave & London are falling like Rocks. London still 2nd, but Olave frequently to the early-to-mid 3rd. I think Olave is a mistake, but London's price is normalizing.

Pittman is also falling way way too far.

People are wising up on BRob, but Eke's ADP seems to be holding, which is a weird combo of events.

Rookie WRs are rising, including some that shouldn't. Burton is the Bengals WR4, and likely isn't headed for a meaningful role in 2024 unless there's injury. And even then I'm a little skeptical.

Dotson is getting drafted higher now than he was when he was believed to be the WR2 in WAS, which is bizarre. I wouldn't touch him. Samuel's turf toe isn't worrying others as much as it's worrying me.

Finally, Aiyuk's ADP has remained remarkably consistent. I wouldn't touch him anywhere near that.

Man, I hate when the market starts getting rationalized. It may still be possible to get Rashee Rice late because of default ADP settings, but I feel like people are starting to wake up to the fact that he's unlikely to be suspended.

He’s gone in the 4th of my last 3 drafts.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Olave & London are falling like Rocks. London still 2nd, but Olave frequently to the early-to-mid 3rd. I think Olave is a mistake, but London's price is normalizing.

Pittman is also falling way way too far.

People are wising up on BRob, but Eke's ADP seems to be holding, which is a weird combo of events.

Rookie WRs are rising, including some that shouldn't. Burton is the Bengals WR4, and likely isn't headed for a meaningful role in 2024 unless there's injury. And even then I'm a little skeptical.

Dotson is getting drafted higher now than he was when he was believed to be the WR2 in WAS, which is bizarre. I wouldn't touch him. Samuel's turf toe isn't worrying others as much as it's worrying me.

Finally, Aiyuk's ADP has remained remarkably consistent. I wouldn't touch him anywhere near that.

Man, I hate when the market starts getting rationalized. It may still be possible to get Rashee Rice late because of default ADP settings, but I feel like people are starting to wake up to the fact that he's unlikely to be suspended.

He’s gone in the 4th of my last 3 drafts.

Curious: How sharky are the leagues you play in?

Also, I think 4th round is priced about right and I'd probably be OK taking him there. But he was a screaming value when he was going a couple rounds later

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Curious: How sharky are the leagues you play in?

2 NFFC high stakes leagues, 1 FBG Bowl league drafted tonight.

Pretty sharky, for the most part. ETA: there are always guppies at every entry level. =/= brains.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Curious: How sharky are the leagues you play in?

2 NFFC high stakes leagues, 1 FBG Bowl league drafted tonight.

Pretty sharky, for the most part. ETA: there are always guppies at every entry level. =/= brains.

OK that makes me feel a little better. I'd say two of my three leagues are somewhere in the middle. My family league is more on the guppy side. But then, it only takes one GM to snake you on a guy you're targeting

 

[msudaisy26]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

 

[Scoresman]

There must be a lot of “Get your guys” advice out there because ADP right now is worthless.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

There must be a lot of “Get your guys” advice out there because ADP right now is worthless.

It may be more that there is no one ADP. It varies so much across different sites. I do still think there's an anchoring effect if a guy is lower or higher on the specific platform you're using. But yes, if Rice's ADP is too low but a bunch of people know to scroll down and look for him, you're not going to be able to get a huge value out of him

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

Completely agree with this. I even went a step further and took my 5th WR by round 9. Much easier to find dart throw RBs late than to find dart throw WRs

One other quirk I don’t remember seeing as much in previous years is videos and articles along the lines of “how to dominate a Yahoo draft” or an ESPN draft or Sleeper etc.

I just use a site agnostic cheatsheet so the idea that people may change draft strategies based on the website the league is on seems strange to me

 

[Chaka]

There must be a lot of “Get your guys” advice out there because ADP right now is worthless.

ADP is generally worthless without range or standard deviation.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There must be a lot of “Get your guys” advice out there because ADP right now is worthless.

ADP is generally worthless without range or standard deviation.

Or context.

If you’re using DD, and someone drafting with you is using Sleeper ADP, and a 3rd team is using draft calc ADP, and someone else bought a magazine on the way to the draft that’s 3 months out of date, none y’all’s ADP is worth a crap.

 

[BassNBrew]

Leaving this pretty open: For those who have already drafted (or even those who have done a ton of mocks), what are you seeing this year that's different (or the same) from previous years?

I don't have my first draft until tomorrow night, but I'll start with a few I've noticed in mocks (tomorrow's draft is a 12-team PPR, so that's what I've been mocking. YMMV):

• I've seen this mentioned elsewhere, but I find it almost impossible to find a second-round pick I'm really happy with. If I start with a RB in the first, I can't find a great WR1 in the second. Same if I start with a WR. And if I double up a position in the first two, then I really feel behind the 8-ball on the other position. I'm coming around on some of the 2nd rounders (Henry, GWilson, Olave) but it still feels like their upsides are capped. I sometimes end up going further down the ADP depth chart to grab guys I think have more upside, like Aiyuk or DJ Moore
• On the other hand -- and this is a huge departure from years past -- I'm finding it easier and easier to find an RB in the 4th or 5th that I'm totally comfortable with slotting in as my RB2. Guys like Cook, Kamara, and Conner feel like screaming values
• I'm totally comfortable waiting on QB this year. Murray is the only one I'd probably be willing to stretch a little for, although if he keeps moving up into the 4th I'm not sure I could pull the trigger. In part, that's because there are lots of guys going late who I'd also be fine with. Love and Dak are a tier behind him, and beyond that I'd probably look to team one of the more boring options like Goff, Tua, Herbert or TLaw with riskier higher upside guys like Daniels (although he may be creeping up as well)
• On the other hand, TE feels like there's more of a dropoff this year after the top group. The Big Four (Kelce, SLP, McBride and Andrews) all seem to be going in the first four rounds. Kittle often falls to the 5th, which I'd feel pretty good with. But after that it gets dicey. I'm out on Kincaid. and Pitts. Guys like Engram or Njoku scare me. Ferguson seems like a solid-enough option. And then it gets really bad.

What are you guys seeing?

Great topic.

Reaching for 4th rounders in the 2nd isn't the way to go. Figure out the riddle.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Leaving this pretty open: For those who have already drafted (or even those who have done a ton of mocks), what are you seeing this year that's different (or the same) from previous years?

I don't have my first draft until tomorrow night, but I'll start with a few I've noticed in mocks (tomorrow's draft is a 12-team PPR, so that's what I've been mocking. YMMV):

• I've seen this mentioned elsewhere, but I find it almost impossible to find a second-round pick I'm really happy with. If I start with a RB in the first, I can't find a great WR1 in the second. Same if I start with a WR. And if I double up a position in the first two, then I really feel behind the 8-ball on the other position. I'm coming around on some of the 2nd rounders (Henry, GWilson, Olave) but it still feels like their upsides are capped. I sometimes end up going further down the ADP depth chart to grab guys I think have more upside, like Aiyuk or DJ Moore
• On the other hand -- and this is a huge departure from years past -- I'm finding it easier and easier to find an RB in the 4th or 5th that I'm totally comfortable with slotting in as my RB2. Guys like Cook, Kamara, and Conner feel like screaming values
• I'm totally comfortable waiting on QB this year. Murray is the only one I'd probably be willing to stretch a little for, although if he keeps moving up into the 4th I'm not sure I could pull the trigger. In part, that's because there are lots of guys going late who I'd also be fine with. Love and Dak are a tier behind him, and beyond that I'd probably look to team one of the more boring options like Goff, Tua, Herbert or TLaw with riskier higher upside guys like Daniels (although he may be creeping up as well)
• On the other hand, TE feels like there's more of a dropoff this year after the top group. The Big Four (Kelce, SLP, McBride and Andrews) all seem to be going in the first four rounds. Kittle often falls to the 5th, which I'd feel pretty good with. But after that it gets dicey. I'm out on Kincaid. and Pitts. Guys like Engram or Njoku scare me. Ferguson seems like a solid-enough option. And then it gets really bad.

What are you guys seeing?

Great topic.

Reaching for 4th rounders in the 2nd isn't the way to go. Figure out the riddle.

With Aiyuk, I absolutely see the risk. I actually think the 49ers are a stealth candidate to be this year's train-wreck team. But I don't get why people are so down on Moore. Is it the rookie QB? The "too many mouths to feed" argument? Because last year he finally had halfway decent QB play and was the WR6. He's also just really good. I could totally see him as my WR1. Probably won't take him in the 2nd because I don't have to, but I'd be happy with him in the 3rd.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

There must be a lot of “Get your guys” advice out there because ADP right now is worthless.

ADP is generally worthless without range or standard deviation.

Or context.

If you’re using DD, and someone drafting with you is using Sleeper ADP, and a 3rd team is using draft calc ADP, and someone else bought a magazine on the way to the draft that’s 3 months out of date, none y’all’s ADP is worth a crap.

And of course all of that becomes completely irrelevant if just one GM falls in love with a guy and takes him two rounds ahead of ADP

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But I don't get why people are so down on Moore

• Rookie QB
• Drafted a very good rookie WR who’s shown immediate chemistry
• Brought in FA target sponge WR
• brought in Everett, so now 2 quality TE receiving targets.

There’s only one football. I’m not saying Moore can’t be a top 10 WR again this year. I’m just saying I’m more comfortable with someone else finding that out at his current ADP.

 

[-jb-]

There must be a lot of “Get your guys” advice out there because ADP right now is worthless.

This. My assumption is that there are a lot of low floor / high upside guys that have had a massive effect on ADP due to best ball.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

And of course all of that becomes completely irrelevant if just one GM falls in love with a guy and takes him two rounds ahead of ADP

Happens all the time.

Or another scenario is a team goes zero or hero RB, gets to round 7 with a QB, TE, 3 WR and panics - ADP goes out the window in favor of “desperately needing a RB2”.

 

[BassNBrew]

Leaving this pretty open: For those who have already drafted (or even those who have done a ton of mocks), what are you seeing this year that's different (or the same) from previous years?

I don't have my first draft until tomorrow night, but I'll start with a few I've noticed in mocks (tomorrow's draft is a 12-team PPR, so that's what I've been mocking. YMMV):

• I've seen this mentioned elsewhere, but I find it almost impossible to find a second-round pick I'm really happy with. If I start with a RB in the first, I can't find a great WR1 in the second. Same if I start with a WR. And if I double up a position in the first two, then I really feel behind the 8-ball on the other position. I'm coming around on some of the 2nd rounders (Henry, GWilson, Olave) but it still feels like their upsides are capped. I sometimes end up going further down the ADP depth chart to grab guys I think have more upside, like Aiyuk or DJ Moore
• On the other hand -- and this is a huge departure from years past -- I'm finding it easier and easier to find an RB in the 4th or 5th that I'm totally comfortable with slotting in as my RB2. Guys like Cook, Kamara, and Conner feel like screaming values
• I'm totally comfortable waiting on QB this year. Murray is the only one I'd probably be willing to stretch a little for, although if he keeps moving up into the 4th I'm not sure I could pull the trigger. In part, that's because there are lots of guys going late who I'd also be fine with. Love and Dak are a tier behind him, and beyond that I'd probably look to team one of the more boring options like Goff, Tua, Herbert or TLaw with riskier higher upside guys like Daniels (although he may be creeping up as well)
• On the other hand, TE feels like there's more of a dropoff this year after the top group. The Big Four (Kelce, SLP, McBride and Andrews) all seem to be going in the first four rounds. Kittle often falls to the 5th, which I'd feel pretty good with. But after that it gets dicey. I'm out on Kincaid. and Pitts. Guys like Engram or Njoku scare me. Ferguson seems like a solid-enough option. And then it gets really bad.

What are you guys seeing?

Great topic.

Reaching for 4th rounders in the 2nd isn't the way to go. Figure out the riddle.

With Aiyuk, I absolutely see the risk. I actually think the 49ers are a stealth candidate to be this year's train-wreck team. But I don't get why people are so down on Moore. Is it the rookie QB? The "too many mouths to feed" argument? Because last year he finally had halfway decent QB play and was the WR6. He's also just really good. I could totally see him as my WR1. Probably won't take him in the 2nd because I don't have to, but I'd be happy with him in the 3rd.

Hot sauce covered it. Hi upside is capped. I'd rather roll with Olave or London in the second round. The Panthers used to have guys like Smith, Muhammad, Jeffers, Ismail that would post WR1 numbers with middling QBs. Unless a guy is a true alpha, I weight opportunity over talent for upside.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

 

[ffmail4me]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Dalton Kincaid and I'll turn the over to you @ignatiusjreilly
Why would you be OUT?

-There were not 1 not 2 not 3 not 4 not 5 but 6 Tight Ends drafted in the 1st and 2nd round 2023, it was a strong TE class and more than La Porta is going to be a frontline starter
IMHO of course...

I would love to know why you feel you are OUT!

 

[jm192]

Olave & London are falling like Rocks. London still 2nd, but Olave frequently to the early-to-mid 3rd. I think Olave is a mistake, but London's price is normalizing.

Pittman is also falling way way too far.

People are wising up on BRob, but Eke's ADP seems to be holding, which is a weird combo of events.

Rookie WRs are rising, including some that shouldn't. Burton is the Bengals WR4, and likely isn't headed for a meaningful role in 2024 unless there's injury. And even then I'm a little skeptical.

Dotson is getting drafted higher now than he was when he was believed to be the WR2 in WAS, which is bizarre. I wouldn't touch him. Samuel's turf toe isn't worrying others as much as it's worrying me.

Finally, Aiyuk's ADP has remained remarkably consistent. I wouldn't touch him anywhere near that.

Man, I hate when the market starts getting rationalized. It may still be possible to get Rashee Rice late because of default ADP settings, but I feel like people are starting to wake up to the fact that he's unlikely to be suspended.

He’s gone in the 4th of my last 3 drafts.

He went late 5th and then early 5th in my last 2 drafts

 

[Payne]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

 

[jm192]

Leaving this pretty open: For those who have already drafted (or even those who have done a ton of mocks), what are you seeing this year that's different (or the same) from previous years?

I don't have my first draft until tomorrow night, but I'll start with a few I've noticed in mocks (tomorrow's draft is a 12-team PPR, so that's what I've been mocking. YMMV):

• I've seen this mentioned elsewhere, but I find it almost impossible to find a second-round pick I'm really happy with. If I start with a RB in the first, I can't find a great WR1 in the second. Same if I start with a WR. And if I double up a position in the first two, then I really feel behind the 8-ball on the other position. I'm coming around on some of the 2nd rounders (Henry, GWilson, Olave) but it still feels like their upsides are capped. I sometimes end up going further down the ADP depth chart to grab guys I think have more upside, like Aiyuk or DJ Moore
• On the other hand -- and this is a huge departure from years past -- I'm finding it easier and easier to find an RB in the 4th or 5th that I'm totally comfortable with slotting in as my RB2. Guys like Cook, Kamara, and Conner feel like screaming values
• I'm totally comfortable waiting on QB this year. Murray is the only one I'd probably be willing to stretch a little for, although if he keeps moving up into the 4th I'm not sure I could pull the trigger. In part, that's because there are lots of guys going late who I'd also be fine with. Love and Dak are a tier behind him, and beyond that I'd probably look to team one of the more boring options like Goff, Tua, Herbert or TLaw with riskier higher upside guys like Daniels (although he may be creeping up as well)
• On the other hand, TE feels like there's more of a dropoff this year after the top group. The Big Four (Kelce, SLP, McBride and Andrews) all seem to be going in the first four rounds. Kittle often falls to the 5th, which I'd feel pretty good with. But after that it gets dicey. I'm out on Kincaid. and Pitts. Guys like Engram or Njoku scare me. Ferguson seems like a solid-enough option. And then it gets really bad.

What are you guys seeing?

I don't think Wilson or Olave are lacking upside. I've seen Puka in the 2nd a fair amount. I've seen Gibbs go early to mid 2nd in some cases.

2nd round of our FBG Bowl draft:
1. Gibbs
2. Saquon
3. London
4. Olave
5. MHJ
6. Adams
7. Henry
8. ETN
9. Pacheco
10. Kupp
11. Nico
12. J Cook

For their costs: I don't want London, Adams, Henry, Kupp or J Cook in the 2nd. I don't think any of them are bad/egrigious picks. That's just not where I'm comfortable or exceited getting those guys. The guy that took Cook at 2.12 got Evans at 3.1, who I'd rather have in the 2nd than several of the aforementioned guys, and he's probably not worried about the order at that point.

Gibbs, Saquon, Olave, MHJ, ETN, Pacheco, Nico: I'm pretty happy with those guys in the 2nd.

I'm done with my FBG leagues, so I can say I agree about the RB value in the 4th/5th round. I'm usually targeting Kamara/Walker in that range. I actually had R White fall to me in the 4th of the FBG Bowl draft, and was really happy with that. I feel like he goes late 3rd a fair amount.

Agree with waiting on QB. I want one of the top 10, and I really don't have a strong feeling after the top 4 or 5. I'm just as happy to have Dak or Love as Stroud.

I agree about the TE drop off. I want a top 5 TE as often as possible, with Evan Engram as the backup plan hopefully a few rounds later. I've been able to get one of McBride/Kincaid/Andrews in round 5 most of the time.

 

[Payne]

Cannot believe the lack of respect Engram gets. Most targets and had two TD's in the last preseason game.
Gladly gobble him up.

 

[Payne]

Leaving this pretty open: For those who have already drafted (or even those who have done a ton of mocks), what are you seeing this year that's different (or the same) from previous years?

I don't have my first draft until tomorrow night, but I'll start with a few I've noticed in mocks (tomorrow's draft is a 12-team PPR, so that's what I've been mocking. YMMV):

• I've seen this mentioned elsewhere, but I find it almost impossible to find a second-round pick I'm really happy with. If I start with a RB in the first, I can't find a great WR1 in the second. Same if I start with a WR. And if I double up a position in the first two, then I really feel behind the 8-ball on the other position. I'm coming around on some of the 2nd rounders (Henry, GWilson, Olave) but it still feels like their upsides are capped. I sometimes end up going further down the ADP depth chart to grab guys I think have more upside, like Aiyuk or DJ Moore
• On the other hand -- and this is a huge departure from years past -- I'm finding it easier and easier to find an RB in the 4th or 5th that I'm totally comfortable with slotting in as my RB2. Guys like Cook, Kamara, and Conner feel like screaming values
• I'm totally comfortable waiting on QB this year. Murray is the only one I'd probably be willing to stretch a little for, although if he keeps moving up into the 4th I'm not sure I could pull the trigger. In part, that's because there are lots of guys going late who I'd also be fine with. Love and Dak are a tier behind him, and beyond that I'd probably look to team one of the more boring options like Goff, Tua, Herbert or TLaw with riskier higher upside guys like Daniels (although he may be creeping up as well)
• On the other hand, TE feels like there's more of a dropoff this year after the top group. The Big Four (Kelce, SLP, McBride and Andrews) all seem to be going in the first four rounds. Kittle often falls to the 5th, which I'd feel pretty good with. But after that it gets dicey. I'm out on Kincaid. and Pitts. Guys like Engram or Njoku scare me. Ferguson seems like a solid-enough option. And then it gets really bad.

What are you guys seeing?

I don't think Wilson or Olave are lacking upside. I've seen Puka in the 2nd a fair amount. I've seen Gibbs go early to mid 2nd in some cases.

2nd round of our FBG Bowl draft:
1. Gibbs
2. Saquon
3. London
4. Olave
5. MHJ
6. Adams
7. Henry
8. ETN
9. Pacheco
10. Kupp
11. Nico
12. J Cook

For their costs: I don't want London, Adams, Henry, Kupp or J Cook in the 2nd. I don't think any of them are bad/egrigious picks. That's just now where I'm comfortable or exceited getting those guys. The guy that took Cook at 2.12 got Evans at 3.1, who I'd rather have in the 2nd than several of the aforementioned guys, and he's probably not worried about the order at that point.

Gibbs, Saquon, Olave, MHJ, ETN, Pacheco, Nico: I'm pretty happy with those guys in the 2nd.

I'm done with my FBG leagues, so I can say I agree about the RB value in the 4th/5th round. I'm usually targeting Kamara/Walker in that range. I actually had R White fall to me in the 4th of the FBG Bowl draft, and was really happy with that. I feel like he goes late 3rd a fair amount.

Agree with waiting on QB. I want one of the top 10, and I really don't have a strong feeling after the top 4 or 5. I'm just as happy to have Dak or Love as Stroud.

I agree about the TE drop off. I want a top 5 TE as often as possible, with Evan Engram as the backup plan hopefully a few rounds later. I've been able to get one of McBride/Kincaid/Andrews in round 5 most of the time.

I am finding in 12 team leagues 5th round is the "round of TE's".

 

[Instinctive]

There must be a lot of “Get your guys” advice out there because ADP right now is worthless.

ADP is generally worthless without range or standard deviation.

Or context.

If you’re using DD, and someone drafting with you is using Sleeper ADP, and a 3rd team is using draft calc ADP, and someone else bought a magazine on the way to the draft that’s 3 months out of date, none y’all’s ADP is worth a crap.

And of course all of that becomes completely irrelevant if just one GM falls in love with a guy and takes him two rounds ahead of ADP

This is why every year I try to get my leagues to move to auction, and every year I am sad when we don't.

 

[Gally]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

Completely agree with this. I even went a step further and took my 5th WR by round 9. Much easier to find dart throw RBs late than to find dart throw WRs

One other quirk I don’t remember seeing as much in previous years is videos and articles along the lines of “how to dominate a Yahoo draft” or an ESPN draft or Sleeper etc.

I just use a site agnostic cheatsheet so the idea that people may change draft strategies based on the website the league is on seems strange to me

I just did a start 2 RB/3 WR/ 1Flex draft last night (PPR) and was in the 7th spot (out of 10). I started Jefferson, Wilson, Collins, and Kupp. I couldn't resist as there were so many decent RB2 type players still on the board I though I could cobble something together. I ended up pretty happy with Walker (5.07), Jones (7.07), Mostert (9.07), Pollard (11.07), and Dowdle (16.04).

 

[Statorama]

YMMV but here are some observations from my keeper auction draft on Sunday:
Overall:

• QB values were depressed over historical values. Mahomes was a 40% discount over last year. Everyone seemed to get a QB at a bargain rate. Lots of vet QBs available cheap at the end of the draft. There was a surprising amount of Bo Nix love in the room. Goff incredibly undervalued IMO. Not a lot of love for Lamar, who went for CJ prices. A-Rich went for much lower than I thought he'd go (in the Herbert range, when I predicted he'd be in the Lamar range).
• Gibbs went for slightly more than Achane, seemed like there were distinct camps that were immediately out when their names were brought up. Kyren was in the next tier after that and he was a relative bargain IMO, seemed a little disrespected in the room.
• Nacua went for more than Kupp. Not a ton more, but Nacua won by a distinct margin.
• Rice was a bargain due to the potential for suspension
• Aman-Ra was bid up in the Tyreek/CD territory, every team seemed to go outside of their comfort zone to bid on him. Teams that were historically timid with the wallet were bidding without regard to the consequences.
• Chase and Garrett Wilson went for more than JJ, AJB and JJ were essentially the same price.
• Olave and Deebo went for the same price
• Discount on Diggs, he was 50% of last years price
• Heavy money on the TE position this year up top. Even Hockenson got bid up.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Dalton Kincaid and I'll turn the over to you @ignatiusjreilly
Why would you be OUT?

-There were not 1 not 2 not 3 not 4 not 5 but 6 Tight Ends drafted in the 1st and 2nd round 2023, it was a strong TE class and more than La Porta is going to be a frontline starter
IMHO of course...

I would love to know why you feel you are OUT!

Biggest reason, aside from the fact that I had him last year and didn't love the ride, is the presence of Knox. When they were both healthy, neither really produced, even down the stretch when Diggs was invisible. And it's not like a Gronk/Hernandez thing where they play totally different positions.

Maybe "out" is overstating it. I think he's fine overall but his upside is limited and I don't like him -- and can't draft him -- in the elite tier of TEs

 

[Deamon]

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

 

[Deamon]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

 

[Grahamburn]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

Have a nice season. Oof.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

But I don't get why people are so down on Moore

• Rookie QB
• Drafted a very good rookie WR who’s shown immediate chemistry
• Brought in FA target sponge WR
• brought in Everett, so now 2 quality TE receiving targets.

There’s only one football. I’m not saying Moore can’t be a top 10 WR again this year. I’m just saying I’m more comfortable with someone else finding that out at his current ADP.

All good points. I just think he's too talented to be dragged down by any of them. It's a little like Diggs when he first came to Buffalo. Even a year or two in, he wasn't getting drafted as an elite option.

Incidentally, I did a mock today where I started Hall/Etienne/Kupp/Moore. No idea if that's realistic in a live draft, but I would be happy if it went that way. Don't reach for Moore but let him fall to me and be happy with the potential upside

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

Have a nice season. Oof.

"Maybe you should invest heavily in top offenses like KC or Detroit or San Francis--"
"NO! I WANT THE TEAM WITH KLIFF KINGSBURY AND THE ROOKIE QB!!!!"

Tbf, I actually could see myself drafting a lot of Commanders this year. Like Daniels as a late rounder if I punt on QB (assuming he falls, which he may not). Think both BRob and McLaurin are undervalued. Like LMC as a late-round flier, and would even consider Sinnott as a final-round guy (paired with a safer option) if I punt TE.

 

[Statorama]

Dalton Kincaid and I'll turn the over to you @ignatiusjreilly
Why would you be OUT?

-There were not 1 not 2 not 3 not 4 not 5 but 6 Tight Ends drafted in the 1st and 2nd round 2023, it was a strong TE class and more than La Porta is going to be a frontline starter
IMHO of course...

I would love to know why you feel you are OUT!

Biggest reason, aside from the fact that I had him last year and didn't love the ride, is the presence of Knox. When they were both healthy, neither really produced, even down the stretch when Diggs was invisible. And it's not like a Gronk/Hernandez thing where they play totally different positions.

Maybe "out" is overstating it. I think he's fine overall but his upside is limited and I don't like him -- and can't draft him -- in the elite tier of TEs

I'm one of the guys betting on him, but I acknowledge those are all good points. I figured if I went big on Mark Andrews I'd be dealing with his own Knox (Isaiah Likely) problem too, so I went with the younger healthier guy. But yeah, if Knox got traded tomorrow I'd look at my roster with a little less anxiety.

 

[ffmail4me]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

Have a nice season. Oof.

When Robinson is your #3 or #4RB like he is in a lot of my leagues, I feel pretty good with that. I have leagues where Terry is my WR #6 behind JJ, Wilson, Aiyuk, Harrison Jr, and Nabers. So yeah, I should have a nice season. I do appreciate your concern though.

 

[Deamon]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

Have a nice season. Oof.

agreed. oof.

 

[kyoun1e]

Leaving this pretty open: For those who have already drafted (or even those who have done a ton of mocks), what are you seeing this year that's different (or the same) from previous years?

I don't have my first draft until tomorrow night, but I'll start with a few I've noticed in mocks (tomorrow's draft is a 12-team PPR, so that's what I've been mocking. YMMV):

• I've seen this mentioned elsewhere, but I find it almost impossible to find a second-round pick I'm really happy with. If I start with a RB in the first, I can't find a great WR1 in the second. Same if I start with a WR. And if I double up a position in the first two, then I really feel behind the 8-ball on the other position. I'm coming around on some of the 2nd rounders (Henry, GWilson, Olave) but it still feels like their upsides are capped. I sometimes end up going further down the ADP depth chart to grab guys I think have more upside, like Aiyuk or DJ Moore
• On the other hand -- and this is a huge departure from years past -- I'm finding it easier and easier to find an RB in the 4th or 5th that I'm totally comfortable with slotting in as my RB2. Guys like Cook, Kamara, and Conner feel like screaming values
• I'm totally comfortable waiting on QB this year. Murray is the only one I'd probably be willing to stretch a little for, although if he keeps moving up into the 4th I'm not sure I could pull the trigger. In part, that's because there are lots of guys going late who I'd also be fine with. Love and Dak are a tier behind him, and beyond that I'd probably look to team one of the more boring options like Goff, Tua, Herbert or TLaw with riskier higher upside guys like Daniels (although he may be creeping up as well)
• On the other hand, TE feels like there's more of a dropoff this year after the top group. The Big Four (Kelce, SLP, McBride and Andrews) all seem to be going in the first four rounds. Kittle often falls to the 5th, which I'd feel pretty good with. But after that it gets dicey. I'm out on Kincaid. and Pitts. Guys like Engram or Njoku scare me. Ferguson seems like a solid-enough option. And then it gets really bad.

What are you guys seeing?

2nd round WRs. Yup. Hate em. I reach into the third round ADPs and go for Nico Collins. Just get this feeling that he officially joins the elite this year.

Love Conner as my #2 RB in round 5.

X. Worthy and B. Thomas are on the rise. They were free a week or so ago. Same goes for R. Rice.

While TE is deep, I think you have to watch where your draft position is located. With picks on the turn, I find that I get sniped constantly if I wait until the Njoku/Fergasun tier.

 

[Grahamburn]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

Have a nice season. Oof.

agreed. oof.

He couldn't get any Ekeler shares to really round out the dumpster fire?

 

[ffmail4me]

The trend I'm most seeing is my homerism is at an all-time high (although this year for good reason, Washington's offense looks to be vastly improved!!) Check out my shares of Washington players amongst my 22 leagues so far (with 2 more drafts coming)

Jayden Daniels - 8 leagues
Brian Robinson - 14 leagues
Terry McLaurin - 16 leagues
Jahan Dotson (all pre trade) - 15 leagues
Dyami Brown - 8 leagues
Luke McCaffrey - 7 leagues
Olamide Zaccheaus - 5 leagues
Ben Sinnott - 8 leagues
Zac Ertz - 4 leagues
Cole Turner - 5 leagues (likely drops)

I know this, on weeks Washington scores a lot of points, I won't be losing many games

Have a nice season. Oof.

agreed. oof.

He couldn't get any Ekeler shares to really round out the dumpster fire?

Nah, he's so old when he farts dust comes out his butt. No interest in owning him

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

Depends on format, I suppose. Standard, no PPR would go extremely heavy like that draft in the first few rounds.

 

[Deamon]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

Depends on format, I suppose. Standard, no PPR would go extremely heavy like that draft in the first few rounds.

Doesn't have to be the first few rounds. I guess I just mean make sure you have 4 RBs before Round 12. Even if its in the middle/late single digit rounds.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

Depends on format, I suppose. Standard, no PPR would go extremely heavy like that draft in the first few rounds.

Doesn't have to be the first few rounds. I guess I just mean make sure you have 4 RBs before Round 12. Even if its in the middle/late single digit rounds.

Apologies. My reply about formatting was meant for this comment:

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

 

[Deamon]

I like my teams a lot better when I load up on wrs early. So through the first seven rounds I want at least four wrs assuming you can start all four.

I'm almost the opposite of this. There has been so many good WR's on the board when it's my turn to draft that I have been loading up on them and realizing I'm shallow at RB.

The one big trend I'm seeing is that there are draftable WR's left in the late rounds (R13-20) but absolutely no RB's even worth rostering. Make sure you're happy with your RB room once Round 12 is over, because you're not getting anything after that, while you can still get good bench WRs

Depends on format, I suppose. Standard, no PPR would go extremely heavy like that draft in the first few rounds.

Doesn't have to be the first few rounds. I guess I just mean make sure you have 4 RBs before Round 12. Even if its in the middle/late single digit rounds.

Apologies. My reply about formatting was meant for this comment:

The zero RB 'experiment' must be officially over. I've seen more 1st/2nd round RBs go this year than I have in a long time.

I have been beating this drum for a month. RB's are coming off way higher in real drafts than ADP or mocks.

Did a draft last night from the 1.7 spot in a competitive 12 team PPR league.
RB's went flying off the board.
1.1 - CMC
1.2 - Bijan
1.6 - Hall
1.7 - Taylor
1.11 - Kyren
2.1 - Pacheco
2.2 - Barkley
2.3 - Gibbs
2.4 - Henry
2.6 - ETN
2.8 - Walker
2.10 - Kamara
2.11 - Cook

That does not seem like a very competitive league.

Ya, he mentioned it was a PPR league.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But I don't get why people are so down on Moore

• Rookie QB
• Drafted a very good rookie WR who’s shown immediate chemistry
• Brought in FA target sponge WR
• brought in Everett, so now 2 quality TE receiving targets.

There’s only one football. I’m not saying Moore can’t be a top 10 WR again this year. I’m just saying I’m more comfortable with someone else finding that out at his current ADP.

All good points. I just think he's too talented to be dragged down by any of them. It's a little like Diggs when he first came to Buffalo. Even a year or two in, he wasn't getting drafted as an elite option.

Incidentally, I did a mock today where I started Hall/Etienne/Kupp/Moore. No idea if that's realistic in a live draft, but I would be happy if it went that way. Don't reach for Moore but let him fall to me and be happy with the potential upside

The bills don’t have uncertainty at quarterback, though. The Bears definitely do.
I expect Caleb Williams to be good, but we don’t know it yet. Nor do we know who he’s going to favor in the passing game.
I love Moore, and wish I had more shares of him. But in redraft, I’m going to let somebody else find out.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Dalton Kincaid and I'll turn the over to you @ignatiusjreilly
Why would you be OUT?

-There were not 1 not 2 not 3 not 4 not 5 but 6 Tight Ends drafted in the 1st and 2nd round 2023, it was a strong TE class and more than La Porta is going to be a frontline starter
IMHO of course...

I would love to know why you feel you are OUT!

Biggest reason, aside from the fact that I had him last year and didn't love the ride, is the presence of Knox. When they were both healthy, neither really produced, even down the stretch when Diggs was invisible. And it's not like a Gronk/Hernandez thing where they play totally different positions.

Maybe "out" is overstating it. I think he's fine overall but his upside is limited and I don't like him -- and can't draft him -- in the elite tier of TEs

Is it possible in Year 2 that Kincaid playing Tight End, a position that requires a year or two to get the ropes in the NFL, La Porta is/was not the norm, but maybe Kincaid improves
I have confidence that Kincaid will look even better this season and if he can't push ahead of Knox then maybe he isn't as good as I and many other in the FF community seem to think
He is being drafted TE 3-5 right now, that could be a smidge high.
Ferguson interest you from Dallas? TE9 or 10 right now

 

[zed2283]

I consider JK Dobbins the handcuff. But each time I've seen Gus Edwards go, Dobbins goes the same round or one round later.