Draftguys Combine Preview (1 Viewer)

[Sigmund Bloom]

2008 Draftguys Combine Preview

Draftguys has caught our breath after three all star games and a visit to a training facility. Expect an exciting announcement about those trips in the next few weeks. In the meantime, the draft scene chugs on, with the next stop being at Indianapolis for the NFL combine. We'll have Josh Buchanan reporting from the RCA Dome daily on The Audible, and of course the NFL Network will again deliver unpredecented coverage of the event. We will be watching every player closely, but some have more to gain or lose than others. Here's our list of the biggest stories to watch over the next week out of Indy:

 

[zadok]

Very good, but I think I saw "rare" used 4 times.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Very good, but I think I saw "rare" used 4 times.

thanks for reading - Ill make sure to dust off my thesaurus next time - working on my top 10 QBs right now, ill make sure to lay off rare and look for more medium well.

 

[zadok]

I'm an editor at heart, I can't help it!

 

[hacman]

Thanks, Bloom.

Regarding Colt Brennan, a respected amateur draftnik on one of the 49er fan sites says that Martz took a shine to Brennan during the Senior Bowl and sees him as a possible 5th rounder. Did you see anything like that from Martz.

I saw most of the NFL Network footage from that week and of Martz coaching up the qbs, but I didn't get that feeling- I just saw a skinny sidearm thrower. In what round do you think Brennan represents value?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Hey Bloom,

I look forward to your coverage.

I think Sweed and Kelly both have a ton on the line, and I won't be surprised if most are surprised by the results.

I'm not sure Slaton can do much to erase the durability issue. There's so much blazing speed in this draft that his best effort, I'd guess a 4.38 or so, just isn't going to set him apart from those just as fast, faster, and nearly as fast who performed better. I'm still a fan of the kid, but the Combine cannot erase how he played last year. Not with this group.

I expect an all-time record for sub 4.4s and I have a hunch Slaton may just miss out.

I was watching Woodson work out today. I think he's just a touch immature and poorly prepared for these big steps, but his talent is still some of the very best this class can offer. I think he'll recover a little since mean and overdemanding Mike Martz won't be expecting him to absorb information like Harvard grad.

I think Brennan also recovers somewhat here. Like Woodson, he's not ready for the big steps but the talent, mostly accuracy, is worth trying to cultivate.

Your McFadden comment is vague. Are we now expecting him to run? Honestly, I don't think it matters either way. The film don't lie. Oh, the peanut galleries will all get excited if he performs poorly, but his stock in the scouting community is blue chip steady. Let the pundits adjust their mocks and rankings with all the blather and noise they can muster, McFadden's final grade is already earned.

Michael Grant and Jack Williams will give Avery and Jackson a run for their money for the best 40 time. Charles, Johnson and Alridge will all have a shot too. I'd like to see them all line up together and go. When checking into Osama Young last year, I thought I spotted a nice cover corner in Williams. He'll start rising soon.

Fred Davis will probably give way to Bennett and or Finley. This is a nice class of TEs, and Davis, while a nice player, will have a hard time holding off these athletes. I'm also a Tamme fan, but he needs mass.

Clady is too much hype, imo. He'll do fine in this format, but his play wasn't that great. Brandon Albert may be the #2 OL when this is said and done.

Dre Moore is from Maryland so that could mean a monster work out.

Tommy Blake probably won't be drafted. He's a little mental.

King Dunlap was dominant down the stretch after the early issues. Shame he was hurt for the bowl game. They really missed him.

Calais should start to shine here and lock up a top 20, maybe top 15 pick.

I think Groves will shine here.

Cason is really in a tough spot. I hope he comes through. Nice player.

Lex Hilliard might grab us fantasy guys attention. A couple injuries have kept him out of the dim small school spotlight, but healthy he was a major beast. He should get under 4.5 at 225. I'd like to hear your thoughts on Hightower. He has a track background and just needs one great run to get drafted. I like the kid. Hard worker. I'm a softy for the underdogs.

I feel bad for Thomas Brown and Chris Markey. Brown looked every bit as explosive as Knowshon before the injury, and Markey legitimately had MJD in a RBBC a couple years ago. Tough injuries for those guys.

Which brings me to my annual rant.

The Combine is great. It is not close in importance to their time spent on the field of play. Stewart will probably be the monster of this Combine. He's always had spectacular track speed, been a great weight lifter, and he's posted some goofy hops over the years. The only part of that that regularly transfers to the field is the power required to pull all those athletic stunts. Even his long speed is rarely flashed on the field of play. Not nearly as much as McFadden's anyway. Stewart has religiously practiced the short shuttle and 3 cone since he's been at Oregon. As fast and powerful as he is, it's no shock that he would become very proficient at those drills. But that doesn't give him better instincts as a runner, or give him more wiggle; it makes him good at the 3 cone and short shuttle. I think the kid is great, but his coming superhuman efforts aren't going to change my opinion of him at all. Few players can change my opinion of them this week.

A man's 40 time on one day does not record his true speed. Does Duckett play like a sub 4.4 guy? Does Berrian play like a 4.5 guy? No. It's just one run and one time. I watched a promising WR working out for this event a couple years ago one Tuesday run 4.50, 4.52, and 4.52. Man was he frustrated. Without changing a thing he came back on Thursday and ran 4.41, 4.44, and 4.41. If you want to know how fast a guy is, what kind of lateral agility he has, how explosive he is, then there is no better measure than watching him play. The Golden League is Europe's professional track and field circuit. The greatest sprinter in the world may post a 9.89 one day and a 10.17 the next, in identical conditions on the same track. But whatever these kids do next weekend will be their speed for life. Meh.

I don't care too much about the Combine. It's fun, very entertaining and a little informative. I can't remember the personnel guy right now, but he explained that 90-95% of a players grade is on tape way before the Senior Bowl and the Combine. The Combine is a very small measure of a scout's opinion. It's an insurance program that allows the teams to tie up loose ends in the scouting process. We in the stands and those in the media are constantly adjusting player's grades based on new information, but the NFL franchises are usually way ahead of us on that information, and these kid's grades are pretty static through this long march to the draft.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Thanks, Bloom. Regarding Colt Brennan, a respected amateur draftnik on one of the 49er fan sites says that Martz took a shine to Brennan during the Senior Bowl and sees him as a possible 5th rounder. Did you see anything like that from Martz.I saw most of the NFL Network footage from that week and of Martz coaching up the qbs, but I didn't get that feeling- I just saw a skinny sidearm thrower. In what round do you think Brennan represents value?

Hac-I spent most of the time in Mobile watching the skill position players. Martz did not take a shine to Brennan IMHO. Colt started the week off with bad buzz coming from the weigh in, and in the practices he looked lost. He had trouble handling the snap, not only on the first day, but on every day we saw him practice. I believe he was trying too hard and it was making him nervous. Mayock said it during the game broadcast, Brennan may not even get drafted.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Mayock said it during the game broadcast, Brennan may not even get drafted.

Would you agree with my take that both Woodson and Brennan are sufferring from maturity issues? They both look like deer in the headlights in interviews. I think they're nervous. The cozy coddling of a college campus gets torn from underneath these kids sometimes, and none struggle more with that than QBs who aren't quite ready for the next step under the brightest of NFL lighting. In both cases I think some decent skill can be nurtured from the shelter of a franchise, but right now they just seem naked to me.None of this is a good sign or a good excuse. Just an observation with the thinking that all is not lost yet. I said it a year ago, Brennan was a fool to stay in school. Happens every year. I believe anyone with a day one grade should take the job. You go to college to get a good job, right? Take it when it's on the table. There'd have been no Senior Bowl to expose Brennan a year ago. He'd have showed up at the Combine and done nicely, like he will this week. He would have been a second rounder, and he would have been in some program working hard for his big checks. Look where he is now by staying in school. Omar Jacobs made the same dumb decision.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Hey Bloom,I look forward to your coverage.I think Sweed and Kelly both have a ton on the line, and I won't be surprised if most are surprised by the results.I'm not sure Slaton can do much to erase the durability issue. There's so much blazing speed in this draft that his best effort, I'd guess a 4.38 or so, just isn't going to set him apart from those just as fast, faster, and nearly as fast who performed better. I'm still a fan of the kid, but the Combine cannot erase how he played last year. Not with this group.I expect an all-time record for sub 4.4s and I have a hunch Slaton may just miss out. I was watching Woodson work out today. I think he's just a touch immature and poorly prepared for these big steps, but his talent is still some of the very best this class can offer. I think he'll recover a little since mean and overdemanding Mike Martz won't be expecting him to absorb information like Harvard grad. I think Brennan also recovers somewhat here. Like Woodson, he's not ready for the big steps but the talent, mostly accuracy, is worth trying to cultivate.Your McFadden comment is vague. Are we now expecting him to run? Honestly, I don't think it matters either way. The film don't lie. Oh, the peanut galleries will all get excited if he performs poorly, but his stock in the scouting community is blue chip steady. Let the pundits adjust their mocks and rankings with all the blather and noise they can muster, McFadden's final grade is already earned.Michael Grant and Jack Williams will give Avery and Jackson a run for their money for the best 40 time. Charles, Johnson and Alridge will all have a shot too. I'd like to see them all line up together and go. When checking into Osama Young last year, I thought I spotted a nice cover corner in Williams. He'll start rising soon.Fred Davis will probably give way to Bennett and or Finley. This is a nice class of TEs, and Davis, while a nice player, will have a hard time holding off these athletes. I'm also a Tamme fan, but he needs mass. Clady is too much hype, imo. He'll do fine in this format, but his play wasn't that great. Brandon Albert may be the #2 OL when this is said and done. Dre Moore is from Maryland so that could mean a monster work out. Tommy Blake probably won't be drafted. He's a little mental.King Dunlap was dominant down the stretch after the early issues. Shame he was hurt for the bowl game. They really missed him.Calais should start to shine here and lock up a top 20, maybe top 15 pick. I think Groves will shine here.Cason is really in a tough spot. I hope he comes through. Nice player. Lex Hilliard might grab us fantasy guys attention. A couple injuries have kept him out of the dim small school spotlight, but healthy he was a major beast. He should get under 4.5 at 225. I'd like to hear your thoughts on Hightower. He has a track background and just needs one great run to get drafted. I like the kid. Hard worker. I'm a softy for the underdogs.I feel bad for Thomas Brown and Chris Markey. Brown looked every bit as explosive as Knowshon before the injury, and Markey legitimately had MJD in a RBBC a couple years ago. Tough injuries for those guys.Which brings me to my annual rant.The Combine is great. It is not close in importance to their time spent on the field of play. Stewart will probably be the monster of this Combine. He's always had spectacular track speed, been a great weight lifter, and he's posted some goofy hops over the years. The only part of that that regularly transfers to the field is the power required to pull all those athletic stunts. Even his long speed is rarely flashed on the field of play. Not nearly as much as McFadden's anyway. Stewart has religiously practiced the short shuttle and 3 cone since he's been at Oregon. As fast and powerful as he is, it's no shock that he would become very proficient at those drills. But that doesn't give him better instincts as a runner, or give him more wiggle; it makes him good at the 3 cone and short shuttle. I think the kid is great, but his coming superhuman efforts aren't going to change my opinion of him at all. Few players can change my opinion of them this week. A man's 40 time on one day does not record his true speed. Does Duckett play like a sub 4.4 guy? Does Berrian play like a 4.5 guy? No. It's just one run and one time. I watched a promising WR working out for this event a couple years ago one Tuesday run 4.50, 4.52, and 4.52. Man was he frustrated. Without changing a thing he came back on Thursday and ran 4.41, 4.44, and 4.41. If you want to know how fast a guy is, what kind of lateral agility he has, how explosive he is, then there is no better measure than watching him play. The Golden League is Europe's professional track and field circuit. The greatest sprinter in the world may post a 9.89 one day and a 10.17 the next, in identical conditions on the same track. But whatever these kids do next weekend will be their speed for life. Meh. I don't care too much about the Combine. It's fun, very entertaining and a little informative. I can't remember the personnel guy right now, but he explained that 90-95% of a players grade is on tape way before the Senior Bowl and the Combine. The Combine is a very small measure of a scout's opinion. It's an insurance program that allows the teams to tie up loose ends in the scouting process. We in the stands and those in the media are constantly adjusting player's grades based on new information, but the NFL franchises are usually way ahead of us on that information, and these kid's grades are pretty static through this long march to the draft.

Slaton showed me a unique combo of speed, moves and toughness (albeit in an undersized package) in 06 - I hope we see it again this week, although I agree that its going to be tough to stand out in this year's class of RBs.My feeling about McFadden is that while the film doesn't lie, if Stewart or Mendenhall dominate, and McFadden doesn't run, I'm not 100% sure the first team taking an RB will take McFadden. While the scouting community may have closed the book on McFadden, I dont know if coaches and front offices have, and yes, they can be persuaded by the blather and noise (although the good ones can't).I expect Davis and Clady to fall, much like you.Moore is gathering buzz much in the same way Rubin is. There just ain't that many guys that big who can also move. Moore did look a little sloppy at the Senior Bowl weigh in.Hightower seemed to have a lot of moves, but didnt understand that he didnt always have to use them in El Paso. I wanted to see more efficiency, less wasted steps and energy. The raw goods might be there, but the dancing has to stop. I like Omon a LOT better among the small school RBs.I totally agree with your sentiment about combine numbers being overrated, but the combine itself is still very important without the workouts for the interview process and the intense physical the kids get - although most of that is kept from us. I also think the combine is another good "does this kid rise to the occasion?" test, especially for the small school kids. Sure it's not football, but it is a crucial test, and something you only get one shot at. The other thing you cant underestimate is the value of seeing the kids right next to each other. Evaluating each player on his own game tape is 90+%, I agree, if you have two prospects close, and you see them run the gauntlet and 40 and so on right next to each other, same conditions, etc, etc, then you can sometimes separate them. That's also why I like the all star games , although as you correctly point out, they dont really affect draft grade THAT much.Man do I love this time of year.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Mayock said it during the game broadcast, Brennan may not even get drafted.

Would you agree with my take that both Woodson and Brennan are sufferring from maturity issues? They both look like deer in the headlights in interviews. I think they're nervous. The cozy coddling of a college campus gets torn from underneath these kids sometimes, and none struggle more with that than QBs who aren't quite ready for the next step under the brightest of NFL lighting. In both cases I think some decent skill can be nurtured from the shelter of a franchise, but right now they just seem naked to me.

We talked to Woodson a couple of times in Mobile, and he was actually very poised while still giving thoughtful and honest answers to our questions. He was more than willing to admit the parts of his game that needed work, and how they were being addressed during the week. I did not pick up an immature vibe from him. I didnt get a chance to talk to Brennan, but Ive heard that he is great on intangibles.

 

[EBF]

I actually think Malcolm Kelly is going to come out of this thing smelling like roses. I don't do mock drafts, but if I did I'd have him pegged to Buffalo at 1.11. That pick makes tons of sense.

I agree with your take on the RBs. It will be interesting to see if there's any substance to the Ray Rice rumors. What I'm most looking forward to is seeing how Stewart and Mendenhall perform. I think they will put on a show (not necessarily in the 40, but overall).

 

[massraider]

I don't care too much about the Combine. It's fun, very entertaining and a little informative. I can't remember the personnel guy right now, but he explained that 90-95% of a players grade is on tape way before the Senior Bowl and the Combine. The Combine is a very small measure of a scout's opinion. It's an insurance program that allows the teams to tie up loose ends in the scouting process. We in the stands and those in the media are constantly adjusting player's grades based on new information, but the NFL franchises are usually way ahead of us on that information, and these kid's grades are pretty static through this long march to the draft.

While I agree the combine isn't the be-all and end-all, Chris Long had a great take on this. From peter King's MMQB:Long has an interesting view of the combine. Many people in and out of the game -- including me -- have long decried the emphasis teams place on what they see at the annual meat market. Long takes this angle on it:"You can very rarely get caught up in numbers in this game, because it's all about the team. But the combine gives me a unique opportunity to set tangible goals. The NFL is giving you a test, and they're giving you the answers. If you fail, either because you didn't prepare or for whatever reasons, it's all your fault, and it probably says something about you."I can look at what guys in the past have done in certain drills and aim for those numbers. I don't want to see what the average guy did last year. I want to know what the lead dog did. Tell me what Gaines Adams [drafted fourth overall by Tampa Bay] did last year. Tell me what Jarvis Moss [drafted 17th overall by Denver] did last year.''The big point that I like is the idea that all the players know exactly what's going to happen, and some still drop the ball.

 

[coolnerd]

I don't care too much about the Combine. It's fun, very entertaining and a little informative. I can't remember the personnel guy right now, but he explained that 90-95% of a players grade is on tape way before the Senior Bowl and the Combine. The Combine is a very small measure of a scout's opinion. It's an insurance program that allows the teams to tie up loose ends in the scouting process. We in the stands and those in the media are constantly adjusting player's grades based on new information, but the NFL franchises are usually way ahead of us on that information, and these kid's grades are pretty static through this long march to the draft.

Over the years I have seen that percentage anywhere from 65%-90% on tape and watching live games with various scouts and GMs. A couple thing that most agree on though concerning the value of the combine1) confirms what teams see on tape...i.e. fast players should be fast, strong player should be strong2) used to separate players who are close3) performance alone (good or bad) generally does not change rating, but forces the team reevaluate tape

 

[Burning Sensation]

I actually think Malcolm Kelly is going to come out of this thing smelling like roses. I don't do mock drafts, but if I did I'd have him pegged to Buffalo at 1.11. That pick makes tons of sense. I agree with your take on the RBs. It will be interesting to see if there's any substance to the Ray Rice rumors. What I'm most looking forward to is seeing how Stewart and Mendenhall perform. I think they will put on a show (not necessarily in the 40, but overall).

They did a piece on Stewart on NFL live yesterday. He has been working with a strength and conditioning coach. Guys looks like a beast, he said he has improved his speed, and they showed him benching 225, i think he was on 19 and still going.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I actually think Malcolm Kelly is going to come out of this thing smelling like roses. I don't do mock drafts, but if I did I'd have him pegged to Buffalo at 1.11. That pick makes tons of sense. I agree with your take on the RBs. It will be interesting to see if there's any substance to the Ray Rice rumors. What I'm most looking forward to is seeing how Stewart and Mendenhall perform. I think they will put on a show (not necessarily in the 40, but overall).

They did a piece on Stewart on NFL live yesterday. He has been working with a strength and conditioning coach. Guys looks like a beast, he said he has improved his speed, and they showed him benching 225, i think he was on 19 and still going.

I expect Stewart to be sub 4.4. He's the defending Pac 10 60 meter champ and he has reportedly run 4.3 something every year in Spring camp. He is a beast, a very fast beast.eta: I think Mendenhall is a great speciman and a very legit prototype prospect, but I do not think he can keep pace with Stewart in this format. Nor do I think McFadden can. Stewart's incredible measureables have been widely reported since he was a high school recruit. However, cautiously, I disagree with EBF and Bloom on McFadden's precarious situation. I think he'd have to break down for another RB to be chosen before him. Like Reggie there's no reason for him to run at the combine. He can answer all questions at the Arkansas Pro Day. I think it works to his advantage to wait. No back wants to be compared to a... what was that EBF said? A comic book character?

 

[Spike]

It's threads like this that make me shake my head in wonderment that we have less people in here than during the football season.

 

[EBF]

I actually think Malcolm Kelly is going to come out of this thing smelling like roses. I don't do mock drafts, but if I did I'd have him pegged to Buffalo at 1.11. That pick makes tons of sense. I agree with your take on the RBs. It will be interesting to see if there's any substance to the Ray Rice rumors. What I'm most looking forward to is seeing how Stewart and Mendenhall perform. I think they will put on a show (not necessarily in the 40, but overall).

They did a piece on Stewart on NFL live yesterday. He has been working with a strength and conditioning coach. Guys looks like a beast, he said he has improved his speed, and they showed him benching 225, i think he was on 19 and still going.

I expect Stewart to be sub 4.4. He's the defending Pac 10 60 meter champ and he has reportedly run 4.3 something every year in Spring camp. He is a beast, a very fast beast.eta: I think Mendenhall is a great speciman and a very legit prototype prospect, but I do not think he can keep pace with Stewart in this format. Nor do I think McFadden can. Stewart's incredible measureables have been widely reported since he was a high school recruit. However, cautiously, I disagree with EBF and Bloom on McFadden's precarious situation. I think he'd have to break down for another RB to be chosen before him. Like Reggie there's no reason for him to run at the combine. He can answer all questions at the Arkansas Pro Day. I think it works to his advantage to wait. No back wants to be compared to a... what was that EBF said? A comic book character?

If all the draftnik chatter about McFadden being the top prospect in the draft is accurate then I think it's unlikely that he'll be anything less than the first RB chosen come April. But sometimes draftniks don't have a great read on what's going on in actual NFL war rooms. It's possible that McFadden isn't the golden boy draftniks have made him out to be. IMO a beastly combine from Stewart and/or Mendenhall could at least make things interesting for teams eyeballing RBs in the top 10. I think the gap is a lot thinner than it was between Bush and Maroney/DWill.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I think the gap is a lot thinner than it was between Bush and Maroney/DWill.

I think McFadden grades as high as Bush did, lower than Peterson. Stewart Mendenhall grade better than Maroney/DWill, and just a tic below Lynch. Having the pleasure of seeing so much of Lynch and Stewart against the same competition makes that a reasonable take, imo. So the gap between DMac and the others is a little tighter (not a lot) than it was between AD/Bush and their competitors. He seems very safe to me.Your take about the draftnik community driving DMac's perceived value is interesting. Big props for insight if that plays out. I expect Stewart to kill the combine and I don't think that moves him ahead of McFadden. If it does, I will credit it to your take here, draftniks in error, not some sudden leap up the charts. The scouts, coaches, and players all know Stewart is a freak already. His Combine shouldn't change his value. Even if he has a bad showing, we know he's a beast anyway.

 

[broncofan13000]

Fred Davis will probably give way to Bennett and or Finley. This is a nice class of TEs, and Davis, while a nice player, will have a hard time holding off these athletes. I'm also a Tamme fan, but he needs mass.

How good is this TE class? From a dynasty perspective, do these guys have what it takes to crack the top 10 in a year or two? Or are they similar to the Marcedes Lewis' and Leonard Pope's of the world, and just not pan out? Any comparisons to current NFL'ers; and how would they rank compared to G.Olsen and Z.Miller of 2007?

 

[coolnerd]

I actually think Malcolm Kelly is going to come out of this thing smelling like roses. I don't do mock drafts, but if I did I'd have him pegged to Buffalo at 1.11. That pick makes tons of sense. I agree with your take on the RBs. It will be interesting to see if there's any substance to the Ray Rice rumors. What I'm most looking forward to is seeing how Stewart and Mendenhall perform. I think they will put on a show (not necessarily in the 40, but overall).

They did a piece on Stewart on NFL live yesterday. He has been working with a strength and conditioning coach. Guys looks like a beast, he said he has improved his speed, and they showed him benching 225, i think he was on 19 and still going.

I expect Stewart to be sub 4.4. He's the defending Pac 10 60 meter champ and he has reportedly run 4.3 something every year in Spring camp. He is a beast, a very fast beast.eta: I think Mendenhall is a great speciman and a very legit prototype prospect, but I do not think he can keep pace with Stewart in this format. Nor do I think McFadden can. Stewart's incredible measureables have been widely reported since he was a high school recruit. However, cautiously, I disagree with EBF and Bloom on McFadden's precarious situation. I think he'd have to break down for another RB to be chosen before him. Like Reggie there's no reason for him to run at the combine. He can answer all questions at the Arkansas Pro Day. I think it works to his advantage to wait. No back wants to be compared to a... what was that EBF said? A comic book character?

If all the draftnik chatter about McFadden being the top prospect in the draft is accurate then I think it's unlikely that he'll be anything less than the first RB chosen come April. But sometimes draftniks don't have a great read on what's going on in actual NFL war rooms. It's possible that McFadden isn't the golden boy draftniks have made him out to be. IMO a beastly combine from Stewart and/or Mendenhall could at least make things interesting for teams eyeballing RBs in the top 10. I think the gap is a lot thinner than it was between Bush and Maroney/DWill.

More than Mendenhall/Stewart move to the top 10, I think McFadden drops some if not out of the top 10 especially with the belief that there is great depth at RB. McFadden is still the top prospect in my mind, but he is not to ADP level. Early in the draft, I think we will see a ton DL men, OTs and CBs with the offensive skill position moving down further than the draftsperts feel.

 

[coolnerd]

Fred Davis will probably give way to Bennett and or Finley. This is a nice class of TEs, and Davis, while a nice player, will have a hard time holding off these athletes. I'm also a Tamme fan, but he needs mass.

How good is this TE class? From a dynasty perspective, do these guys have what it takes to crack the top 10 in a year or two? Or are they similar to the Marcedes Lewis' and Leonard Pope's of the world, and just not pan out? Any comparisons to current NFL'ers; and how would they rank compared to G.Olsen and Z.Miller of 2007?

There are a decent amount of overgrown WRs playing TE in this draft. DAvis is probably around the late first/ early 2nd range or pretty close to Olsen/Miller. . From a fantasy perspective, i suspect one of these pass catchers will emerge ala Owen Daniels even if they last until the 3rd or 4th round in the real NFL draft.

 

[LHUCKS]

Very good, but I think I saw "rare" used 4 times.

Official "combine draft words draft" hijack1.01 - football speed

 

[EBF]

Your take about the draftnik community driving DMac's perceived value is interesting. Big props for insight if that plays out. I expect Stewart to kill the combine and I don't think that moves him ahead of McFadden. If it does, I will credit it to your take here, draftniks in error, not some sudden leap up the charts. The scouts, coaches, and players all know Stewart is a freak already. His Combine shouldn't change his value. Even if he has a bad showing, we know he's a beast anyway.

I got Bush. I got Peterson. They were both freakazoids with undeniable talent. It was impossible to watch them in college and not be impressed unless you were just trying to confirm some pre-existing bias against them. But McFadden? Meh. He's never jumped out at me like I'd expect given his hype as potentially the best PLAYER in the draft (not just the best RB, but the best player!) So when I hear some of the hyperbole, my natural reaction is to dismiss it as just that -- hyperbole. I guess it's a bit arrogant to assume that my relatively low opinion McFadden is shared by NFL scouts. I just can't believe that the people who do this for a living really think he's as good as Peterson and Bush. That doesn't mean I'm not horribly wrong. I certainly didn't think Ronnie Brown was worth a top 5 pick and he went 2nd overall. Anything can happen. Maybe I'm just outsmarting myself with McFadden or maybe I'm just missing something. But I definitely don't think he's the slam dunk top RB like I did with Bush and Peterson.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Your take about the draftnik community driving DMac's perceived value is interesting. Big props for insight if that plays out. I expect Stewart to kill the combine and I don't think that moves him ahead of McFadden. If it does, I will credit it to your take here, draftniks in error, not some sudden leap up the charts. The scouts, coaches, and players all know Stewart is a freak already. His Combine shouldn't change his value. Even if he has a bad showing, we know he's a beast anyway.

I got Bush. I got Peterson. They were both freakazoids with undeniable talent. It was impossible to watch them in college and not be impressed unless you were just trying to confirm some pre-existing bias against them. But McFadden? Meh. He's never jumped out at me like I'd expect given his hype as potentially the best PLAYER in the draft (not just the best RB, but the best player!) So when I hear some of the hyperbole, my natural reaction is to dismiss it as just that -- hyperbole. I guess it's a bit arrogant to assume that my relatively low opinion McFadden is shared by NFL scouts. I just can't believe that the people who do this for a living really think he's as good as Peterson and Bush. :X That doesn't mean I'm not horribly wrong. I certainly didn't think Ronnie Brown was worth a top 5 pick and he went 2nd overall. Anything can happen. Maybe I'm just outsmarting myself with McFadden or maybe I'm just not missing something. But I definitely don't think he's the slam dunk top RB like I did with Bush and Peterson.

I think there are two major issues at play: salary cap economics and EBF's draftnik buzz groupthink principal. From the economic end- here are the franchise tag salaries. Remember this is the average salary for the top 5 paid players at the position.

Quarterback $10.73

Cornerback $9.465

Defensive end $8.879

Linebacker $8.065

Wide receiver $7.848

Offensive line $7.455

Defensive tackle $6.363

Running back $6.538

Tight end $4.522

Safety $4.396

Kicker/punter $2.514

Notice how low rb is. If you draft a rb in the top 5-8 spots, they need to be one of the top 5 guys in the league pretty fast or you are overpaying. Adrian Peterson, as a reference point, was drafted 7th, signed a 6 year 40 million dollar contract with 17million guaranteed. Compare that to Frank Gore, who after his 1695/485/10td season got a 4 year 28 million dollar contract with about 13 million guaranteed (given signing bonus and nearly definite roster bonuses for 08 and 09). In terms of paying for production, Peterson is not really ahead of schedule. Highly drafted rookie rbs can't just be pretty good, like Willis McGahee. They need to be really good, really fast. It is important to note the pay scale drops a good deal between 10-18(Lynch drafted 12th signed a 5 year 19 million dollar contract with 10+ guaranteed , and then again between 19-30 (Maroney drafted at 21 signed a 5 year 8.75 million dollar contract).

Which brings us back to McFadden. IF you are an NFL team and have a fear he might just be pretty good, you can't touch him in the top ten. If you think someone is just as likely to be pretty similar and available in round 2 or late 1, it is worth passing on McFadden and either trading back from your spot in the first, or trading up from your spot in the second to get the cheaper option. Is an unproven McFadden at 40 million over the next 6 years really a better option than a rb like his teammate Jones for 8 million + 30 million in contracts over the next 6 years to improve your team. Draftniks rarely consider the zero some game of salary economics. Every dollar you spend in one place is a dollar you can't spend elsewhere.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Draftniks rarely consider the zero some game of salary economics.

We weren't talking top RBs vs other positions, nor were we talking about how high McFadden or someone else may be drafted. We were discussing the RB order.I also disagree with the quote. Posts like yours (maybe not so tidy, but the same ideas) can be found regularly in mock draft threads explaining why MLBs fall compared to OLBs, and DTs fall compared to DEs, and RBs fall compared to other positions. Draftniks are schooled in this positional capanomics. It's part and parcel of putting together a decent mock, and lord knows draftniks mock their socks off and work pretty diligently to understand the process.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Draftniks rarely consider the zero some game of salary economics.

We weren't talking top RBs vs other positions, nor were we talking about how high McFadden or someone else may be drafted. We were discussing the RB order.

I distinctly recall EBF saying

I think the gap is a lot thinner than it was between Bush and Maroney/DWill

and you saying

So the gap between DMac and the others is a little tighter (not a lot) than it was between AD/Bush and their competitors. He seems very safe to me.

Those seem to be less about the rb order and more about when they might be drafted.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Draftniks rarely consider the zero some game of salary economics.

I also disagree with the quote. Posts like yours (maybe not so tidy, but the same ideas) can be found regularly in mock draft threads explaining why MLBs fall compared to OLBs, and DTs fall compared to DEs, and RBs fall compared to other positions. Draftniks are schooled in this positional capanomics. It's part and parcel of putting together a decent mock, and lord knows draftniks mock their socks off and work pretty diligently to understand the process.

I wasn't trying to promote my point as original thought. However, many people- decent mockers- had previously said McFadden was a lock to be a top 5 pick. In this time period of the salary cap, especially given the lukewarm success of Reggie Bush (who is being paid as a top 5 back but as of yet is not playing at that level) I would say that no back is lock to be taken in the top 5. As EBF said, we don't know the inner working of those warrooms, and how they combine scouting, position played, draft/salary slot, and need to make a selection

 

[Chaos Commish]

Draftniks rarely consider the zero some game of salary economics.

We weren't talking top RBs vs other positions, nor were we talking about how high McFadden or someone else may be drafted. We were discussing the RB order.

I distinctly recall EBF saying

I think the gap is a lot thinner than it was between Bush and Maroney/DWill

and you saying

So the gap between DMac and the others is a little tighter (not a lot) than it was between AD/Bush and their competitors. He seems very safe to me.

Those seem to be less about the rb order and more about when they might be drafted.

Nope. Those were 100% about order to me. I cannot speak for EBF. The gap could be between pick 1 and 10 or 10 and 20 and be the same. I was arguing McFadden has sealed the deal to be RB1 and not discussing any other positions or where I thought he should be drafted.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Nope. Those were 100% about order to me. I cannot speak for EBF. The gap could be between pick 1 and 10 or 10 and 20 and be the same. I was arguing McFadden has sealed the deal to be RB1 and not discussing any other positions or where I thought he should be drafted.

Fair enough.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Draftniks rarely consider the zero some game of salary economics.

I also disagree with the quote. Posts like yours (maybe not so tidy, but the same ideas) can be found regularly in mock draft threads explaining why MLBs fall compared to OLBs, and DTs fall compared to DEs, and RBs fall compared to other positions. Draftniks are schooled in this positional capanomics. It's part and parcel of putting together a decent mock, and lord knows draftniks mock their socks off and work pretty diligently to understand the process.

I wasn't trying to promote my point as original thought. However, many people- decent mockers- had previously said McFadden was a lock to be a top 5 pick. In this time period of the salary cap, especially given the lukewarm success of Reggie Bush (who is being paid as a top 5 back but as of yet is not playing at that level) I would say that no back is lock to be taken in the top 5. As EBF said, we don't know the inner working of those warrooms, and how they combine scouting, position played, draft/salary slot, and need to make a selection

Understood. I think all the teams that passed on Peterson in the top 5 wish they didn't. I think the Saints are okay with the pick of Bush, but he has to step up this year or the regrets will be real. Caddy, Benson and Brown have had mixed results for top five RBs, but current precedent for stud RBs early is pretty clear despite the finances. There's a muck of mediocre RB talent in the NFL right now. That helps keep their salaries low -- this idea that a productive RB is easy to find. Peterson's transcendence and Bush's disappointment must make those war room conversations regarding DMac, Stew and Mendenhall pretty interesting.

 

[obxlegends]

Peterson's transcendence and Bush's disappointment must make those war room conversations regarding DMac, Stew and Mendenhall pretty interesting.

I would of never dreamt that two years ago we'd be thinking of Reggie Bush as a poor man's Brian Westbrook. That goes to illustrate your point that you never truly know what you're going to get. A lot of the reason Peterson slipped to 1.7 last year is because GM's don't want to invest all that money into such a disposable position like RB. Sure, if there were guarantees, then Peterson would of went higher. However, with the injury questions it just made some GM's be more cautious. GM's tend to be more guarded especially as it pertains to RB's. I have doubts if any RB, McFadden or otherwise, gets drafted in the Top 5 this year. We'll see.Good posting guys, I've enjoyed this thread.