Drafting a QB in the First Round Of a Fantasy Draft (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

This topic comes up every year, and usually the OP gets flamed and called every name under the sun. So to beat people to the punch and minimize the negativity toward other posters, I will start this off this offseason in the hopes of having a civilized discussion.

In the past 5 fantasy seasons, here were the most valuable fantasy performers on an individual season basis (0 PPR) and all the players that had a VBD of 120 or more in any of those seasons. Yes, I am aware that PPG could be a better metric, but here were the highest scoring players based on VBD.

Tom Brady 2007 225Drew Brees 2011 203Aaron Rodgers 2011 201Chris Johnson 2009 199Arian Foster 2010 192Tom Brady 2011 174L Tomlinson 2007 173Randy Moss 2007 170Ray Rice 2011 153Calvin Johnson 2011 149Brian Westbrook 2007 147Matt Stafford 2011 145Rob Gronkowoski 2011 144Cam Newton 2011 143Adrian Peterson 2009 140D Williams 2008 136Shady McCoy 2011 134Michael Turner 2008 128Drew Brees 2008 127Aaron Rodgers 2009 124M Jones-Drew 2009 122
Eight of the 21 players were QBs. This year in particular there were several QBs that far outclassed other fantasy players. Given the huge passing totals being amassed these days, is it time to finally start at least considering taking a QB in the first round (or at the very least much earlier than in prior years)?

The positives could include:

- Having a definitie scoring advantage over teams that don't end up with an uber stud QB

- Not having to guess which RB/WR to take potentially at the bottom of the first round

- Selecting from RBs and WRs downstream that could be as good or better as the options available at the same pick

- Big scoring weeks by top QBs can win fantasy games on their own

- Potentially posting a consistently big number each week without the ups and downs that some first round non QB picks suffer through

- Not having to worry about which QB to start from week to week

- Many NFL teams getting on the passing bandwagon and running less frequently

- Many NFL teams seemingly adapting more of a RBBC approach, thus fewer bell cow RB available

Negatives include:

- Finding a stud QB later in the draft (see Newton, Cam)

- Using a QBBC strategy that could net decent QB scoring

- Not getting a true stud at RB or WR

- Taking a big injury risk that a QB could get knocked out for several weeks

- Having a lower VBD score if other QBs score more (ie with only 12 QBs used to measure VBD, there is not as much position scarcity)

- Top QBs falling back to the back (regression to the mean)

- Officials letting defenders cover receivers better (and thus cutting down on the crazy passing totals)

What civilized thoughts do people have on the matter in the current state of the NFL?

 

[glumpy]

Every year in my league there are a couple QB's going in the first round. This year I believe that number was four, and the person picking Aaron Rodgers at 1.01 had overall best record and won the league playoffs.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

This is pretty much what I do in re-drafts every year.

RB is too injury ridden and the stud QBs perform.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Discussed this at some length in the **OFFICIAL PICK #4 THREAD** this year, as I expected (correctly) Foster, Peterson, and Rice to be the first three names called. After a long deliberation, I took Rodgers at #4 over McCoy. I would have been in pretty good shape either way as it turned out, but with my scoring system (50 yds/pt passing, 20 yds/pt rushing, all TDs 6, no PPR) - Rodgers was the better pick VBD-wise, by a substantial margin. Even after whiffing or semi-whiffing on my next 3 picks (Nicks in the second, Hillis in the third, Ingram in the 4th), I still finished #1 in points in the regular season, due largely to Rodgers. In the interest of full disclosure, drafting Gronkowski and A.J. Green in the 7th and 8th rounds didn't hurt. Rodgers single-handedly won several games for me, though, although he did kill me when I needed him most (against KC.)

Wouldn't hesitate to take an elite QB round 1 again and in fact, drafting 9th next year, I will take Brees, Rodgers, or Brady at that spot, and will consider Stafford at 2.4 if he's there.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

This is pretty much what I do in re-drafts every year.RB is too injury ridden and the stud QBs perform.

I agree. The other positions (even TE) are getting more and more diluted while every good team still goes with 1 main QB.

 

[Concept Coop]

For one, the VBD is only applicable to a very specific league - I think we need that laid out clearly. In the leagues that I play in, which have 1-2 flex spots, those numbers look differently.

Also, take out 2011, and the list is dominated by RBs. Last year, not one QB has 100 VBD - this year, 5 did. Sure, the NFL is always changing, that that is a whole lot of change in 12 months time. Are you going to bet on that continuing? Remember, if the NFL is moving towards a pass first league, that affects all QBs, not just the elite ones. If the baseline increases, the VBD of the eltie options drop.

How is the fact that there are fewer bell-cow RBs help QBs? That only makes the elite RBs more valuable.

Lastly, I will say that raw VBD is not a perfect measurement. It downplays the fact that simply having a baseline RB on your roster is FAR more valuable than having a baseline QB. Just achieving baseline at your RB2 spot is a plus - that is ignored in raw VBD.

 

[Concept Coop]

This is pretty much what I do in re-drafts every year.RB is too injury ridden and the stud QBs perform.

Injury prone, sure. But, if you drafted DMC/Bush or ADP/Toby, you still had a major advantage at the RB spot for the season. Even if you drafted Romo in the 5th - where he was going - you are in a good spot to best a team that drafted Brees in the 1st. That is using Romo as an example - let alone Stafford, Cam, Eli - who outperformed their draft slots.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

It wasn't until I decided to load up at the QB spot that I began to win championships. You look at Championship winning rosters and they are all loaded at QB. My QB in both leagues was Rodgers and he gave me a considerable cushion to start out with each week. I've had this same conversation with a good friend in my same league who drafted Brady, and he agrees. No point in wasting a first rounder on a RB that may get turf toe or sprain an MCL or something. Even the elite WR's are a bit of a crapshoot to guess. But having an elite QB is a requirement and part of the good fortune of picking late in the first round.

Bottom line: 5 or 6 years of QBBC, drafting for value got me nowhere near the playoffs, then I switched to high picks on QB and won 4 out of 4 leagues.

I know that the OP has won leagues with QBBC, and not saying it can't be done. But it's not something that feels right for me.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

This is pretty much what I do in re-drafts every year.RB is too injury ridden and the stud QBs perform.

Injury prone, sure. But, if you drafted DMC/Bush or ADP/Toby, you still had a major advantage at the RB spot for the season. Even if you drafted Romo in the 5th - where he was going - you are in a good spot to best a team that drafted Brees in the 1st. That is using Romo as an example - let alone Stafford, Cam, Eli - who outperformed their draft slots.

There is a thread around here that lists all the RBs that missed time, I have it bookmarked somewhere.ADPjamal charlesMcfaddenmendenhallthe list goes on and on. of the Rbs that missed time. To me Brees/Rodgers/Brady represent the best picks and the most points.

 

[David Yudkin]

For one, the VBD is only applicable to a very specific league - I think we need that laid out clearly. In the leagues that I play in, which have 1-2 flex spots, those numbers look differently.Also, take out 2011, and the list is dominated by RBs. Last year, not one QB has 100 VBD - this year, 5 did. Sure, the NFL is always changing, that that is a whole lot of change in 12 months time. Are you going to bet on that continuing? Remember, if the NFL is moving towards a pass first league, that affects all QBs, not just the elite ones. If the baseline increases, the VBD of the eltie options drop.How is the fact that there are fewer bell-cow RBs help QBs? That only makes the elite RBs more valuable.Lastly, I will say that raw VBD is not a perfect measurement. It downplays the fact that simply having a baseline RB on your roster is FAR more valuable than having a baseline QB. Just achieving baseline at your RB2 spot is a plus - that is ignored in raw VBD.

I already agreed that VBD taken on a whole is not the best way to measure things, and as you said, it really depends on each individual league, the scoring system, and the starting roster requirements.The part about the fewer bell cow RBs has a direct bearing on what people should be considering later in the first round. For example, there were only 8 RB with 300 touches this year and 2 of them (S-Jax and CJohnson) didn't really come close to being first round value. If there is a glut of second tier RBs (at least in terms of workload), it might make more sense to worry about taking a 200 touch back later on (rounds 2-5) if the same type of player can be had throughout those rounds.To be clear, I am not saying people should or should not take a QB in the first round, I am just opening the door for some discussion.

 

[Concept Coop]

Foster/Tate

Peterson/Gerhart

DMC/Bush

Forte/Barber(for 1 game)/Bell

Jackson/Spiller

Felix/Murray

Bradshaw/Jacobs

Granted, if you drafted Charles, you were screwed.

But, you can go RB early, have injury issues, and still have an advantage if you handcuff.

 

[Concept Coop]

There is a thread around here that lists all the RBs that missed time, I have it bookmarked somewhere.ADPjamal charlesMcfaddenmendenhallthe list goes on and on. of the Rbs that missed time. To me Brees/Rodgers/Brady represent the best picks and the most points.

If you handcuffed, 3 out of 4 of those guys still produced VBD using their backups.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

But, you can go RB early, have injury issues, and still have an advantage if you handcuff.

Don't wont to veer too far off topic, but handcuffing in some cases, Foster/Tate and DMC/Bush were expensive handcuffs and generally negated the opportunity to get a steal like a Jordy Nelson or a Steve Smith type WR.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Foster/TatePeterson/GerhartDMC/BushForte/Barber(for 1 game)/BellJackson/SpillerFelix/MurrayBradshaw/JacobsGranted, if you drafted Charles, you were screwed.But, you can go RB early, have injury issues, and still have an advantage if you handcuff.

So you have to handcuff or assume that you can get waiver prioirty or waste a roster spot on multiple cuffs?I dont think that Jacobs played that well and M.Bush was decent but harldy represneted first round value.

 

[David Yudkin]

Foster/TatePeterson/GerhartDMC/BushForte/Barber(for 1 game)/BellJackson/SpillerFelix/MurrayBradshaw/JacobsGranted, if you drafted Charles, you were screwed.But, you can go RB early, have injury issues, and still have an advantage if you handcuff.

I agree in theory but disagree in practice. Of the pairings you just brought up, 3 of them would not have been considered in the first round. I don't remember Jackson, Jones, or Bradshaw getting picked anywhere near the first round . . . nor would people have expected those combinations to pay off like they did. That's part of the required analysis here. It's much harder to guess what happens before it happens than after the fact.Better stated, I think most people would agree that drafting Rodgers there was a better confidence level that you would get consistent scoring than taking Jones and Murray. The Dallas example is probably a better indictment on taking a QB early and getting a cheap RB pairing later on.

 

[Concept Coop]

The part about the fewer bell cow RBs has a direct bearing on what people should be considering later in the first round. For example, there were only 8 RB with 300 touches this year and 2 of them (S-Jax and CJohnson) didn't really come close to being first round value. If there is a glut of second tier RBs (at least in terms of workload), it might make more sense to worry about taking a 200 touch back later on (rounds 2-5) if the same type of player can be had throughout those rounds.To be clear, I am not saying people should or should not take a QB in the first round, I am just opening the door for some discussion.

I think it is a good conversation to have. I think there are QB worthy of a 1st round pick. But you can "lock up" a QB in rounds 2-4, at least. The RBs you get in that range are far from locks. Give me Romo/Eli in round 4-5, coupled with an elite RB, over Brees coupled with RBs like Best, F. Jones, Bradshaw, Blount - who all went in that range.

 

[imagroid]

The fact that you need to use 2 picks to "solidify" your 1st round RB, doesn't help your side imo.

It's purely anecdotal, but I wasn't seeing a lot of championship teams without Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Newton/Stafford at QB.

 

[Concept Coop]

So you have to handcuff or assume that you can get waiver prioirty or waste a roster spot on multiple cuffs?I dont think that Jacobs played that well and M.Bush was decent but harldy represneted first round value.

The "roster spots" would likely be wasted on other RB in that range - you are simply getting ones that offer insurance.I am not suggesting the backups will equal the starters - they likely won't. But these "injury concerns" are GREATLY offset, when you can plug in 80% of the production with the handcuff. ADP was worth a first round pick, even with his injury issues, if you grabbed Toby - DMC too. (Depending some on league setup, of course).

 

[David Yudkin]

The part about the fewer bell cow RBs has a direct bearing on what people should be considering later in the first round. For example, there were only 8 RB with 300 touches this year and 2 of them (S-Jax and CJohnson) didn't really come close to being first round value. If there is a glut of second tier RBs (at least in terms of workload), it might make more sense to worry about taking a 200 touch back later on (rounds 2-5) if the same type of player can be had throughout those rounds.To be clear, I am not saying people should or should not take a QB in the first round, I am just opening the door for some discussion.

I think it is a good conversation to have. I think there are QB worthy of a 1st round pick. But you can "lock up" a QB in rounds 2-4, at least. The RBs you get in that range are far from locks. Give me Romo/Eli in round 4-5, coupled with an elite RB, over Brees coupled with RBs like Best, F. Jones, Bradshaw, Blount - who all went in that range.

I was the poster boy for not having to burn an early pick on a QB this year, as I believe I ended up having to roster and start about 10 QB this year due to injuries. By the end of the year, I literally was playing the best options off of the waiver wire and still winnning. That being said, I NAILED my picks at RB and WR (IIRC, I ended up with 4 Top 10 RBs and 4 of the Top 5 WRs . . . not counting Best and Britt who I also drafted but unfortunately got hurt).That's the rub though, as you need to have more hits than misses whether it is at QB, in the first round, etc. I suppose if you pick the right players it really doesn't matter where you take them, but having a road map of where/when to grab people would help . . .

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Give me Romo/Eli in round 4-5, coupled with an elite RB, over Brees coupled with RBs like Best, F. Jones, Bradshaw, Blount - who all went in that range.

I think you have to define which "elite RB" you are talking about here. If it's any of the later half of the first round RB's such as Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Peyton Hillis, or Stephen Jackson...then I'd gladly take Brees and one of the other RB's mentioned, and I'd like those 2 building blocks better.

 

[Concept Coop]

Foster/TatePeterson/GerhartDMC/BushForte/Barber(for 1 game)/BellJackson/SpillerFelix/MurrayBradshaw/JacobsGranted, if you drafted Charles, you were screwed.But, you can go RB early, have injury issues, and still have an advantage if you handcuff.

I agree in theory but disagree in practice. Of the pairings you just brought up, 3 of them would not have been considered in the first round. I don't remember Jackson, Jones, or Bradshaw getting picked anywhere near the first round . . . nor would people have expected those combinations to pay off like they did. That's part of the required analysis here. It's much harder to guess what happens before it happens than after the fact.Better stated, I think most people would agree that drafting Rodgers there was a better confidence level that you would get consistent scoring than taking Jones and Murray. The Dallas example is probably a better indictment on taking a QB early and getting a cheap RB pairing later on.

I did not intend to suggest that the players mentioned were 1st round picks, or should be. I was pointing out that handcuffing your RBs can offset a great deal of risk.Of course, Rodgers was the safest bet in the hobby. But, was he worth the #1? In most cases, no. Arian Foster was, especially if the owner had Tate, who wasn't hard to acquire.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The fact that you need to use 2 picks to "solidify" your 1st round RB, doesn't help your side imo.It's purely anecdotal, but I wasn't seeing a lot of championship teams without Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Newton/Stafford at QB.

Exactly.No one knew what Cam would be heck Im willing to bet he went undrafted in alot leagues.Stafford played 16 games for the first time ever, while his upside was there, there was huge risk with him.I have been saying for a few years around here that RB in round1 is a dead drafting style in 12/10 man re-drafts.

 

[David Yudkin]

So you have to handcuff or assume that you can get waiver prioirty or waste a roster spot on multiple cuffs?I dont think that Jacobs played that well and M.Bush was decent but harldy represneted first round value.

The "roster spots" would likely be wasted on other RB in that range - you are simply getting ones that offer insurance.I am not suggesting the backups will equal the starters - they likely won't. But these "injury concerns" are GREATLY offset, when you can plug in 80% of the production with the handcuff. ADP was worth a first round pick, even with his injury issues, if you grabbed Toby - DMC too. (Depending some on league setup, of course).

We could have a whole discussion on handcuffing (that's another topic that gets annual threads). I personally am less concerned with handcuffing, as many times having a handcuff doesn't pan out, the #2 guy is nowhere near as productive, or the NFL team does not use one guy as the primary ball handler. For me this year, the ADP/Gerhart handcuff (which I had) paid off. The Johnson/Ringer and Best/Morris ones did not.As others have mentioned, if it's a really cheap, late round handcuff that's one thing, but to have to invest a decent to early round pick for a handcuff can many times be too big an investment (at least in my book).

 

[Concept Coop]

The fact that you need to use 2 picks to "solidify" your 1st round RB, doesn't help your side imo.It's purely anecdotal, but I wasn't seeing a lot of championship teams without Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Newton/Stafford at QB.

Only Rodgers and Brees were 1st round picks. Teams with Brady, Newton, and Stafford (Eli too) won the championships in large part for waiting on a QB and getting great value.You need 2+ picks for every spot. You have to have a backup QB. You have to have multiple back up RBs - especially if you aren't grabbing the elite guys. There is more guess work, having to sort out RBBC situations.

 

[butcher boy]

I'm a firm believer in not taking a risk in Round 1, and instead taking sure points.

If you think QBs are going to go off next year like they did this year then taking a QB in round 1 makes a lot of sense.

Right now I'm thinking next year if Foster/Rice/Forte are off the board, I'm looking at Rodgers/Brees/Brady in the mid-late first round. There is no way I'm taking a DMC/Mendenhall/Charles in that spot ahead of that many potential points at QB.

To me it's not so much about value as it is the fact that late first round running backs are being very hard to predict recently. This year, if you picked another late first round RB other than McCoy, your team was probably terrible.

DMC - hurt

Mendenhall - sucked

Jackson - sucked

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Good points on handcuffing RB's. Just wanted to add, How many times have you had to carry a handcuff through a difficult bye week and your roster space just got short and you have a regular starter injured? It's very tough to hold on to that handcuff, and at that point it's a liability to roster them.

 

[Concept Coop]

I have been saying for a few years around here that RB in round1 is a dead drafting style in 12/10 man re-drafts.

The numbers suggest that you are wrong. If you said this before 2011 - very wrong.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

You have to have a backup QB.

Didn't carry one all year except for my bye week 8. Picked up and tossed back Tebow for one week, and then never bothered to roster another one.

 

[Concept Coop]

Good points on handcuffing RB's. Just wanted to add, How many times have you had to carry a handcuff through a difficult bye week and your roster space just got short and you have a regular starter injured? It's very tough to hold on to that handcuff, and at that point it's a liability to roster them.

Good point - roster size plays a part. But, if you drafted a RB after round 2, you needed a plan B and C anyway. In other words, if you drafted AP, you need Toby - on RB spot is set in stone. Going RBBC, or shot gunning them, required more than 2 roster spots, often.

 

[Concept Coop]

You have to have a backup QB.

Didn't carry one all year except for my bye week 8. Picked up and tossed back Tebow for one week, and then never bothered to roster another one.

I think that is far form the norm. In many leagues, you can't get starting QBs off the wire every week.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

You have to have a backup QB.

Didn't carry one all year except for my bye week 8. Picked up and tossed back Tebow for one week, and then never bothered to roster another one.

I think that is far form the norm. In many leagues, you can't get starting QBs off the wire every week.

Well remember at the time, Tebow wasn't a starter yet. So I spent a good chunk of my FAAB (about 25% bid) and I could have had him for aobut 6%. oh well. Early in the season it is much easier to get starting QB's off the wire than later, that's true.

 

[rzrback77]

Do the current rules protecting QBs add to the positive impact of having a top QB? There were 14 QBs that played all 16 games this year so maybe there will be less QB injuries going forward making your choice of a top QB more safe in another manner.

Comparing ADP is important to this discussion, but turnover at the top end of the QB rankings seems less volatile year to year than RBs and possibly WRs. The following list gives ADP first and then end of year FBG ranking second

1) Rodgers ADP of 10 and QB ranking of 2

2) Vick 15 and 11 - missed 3 gms

3) Brady 24 and 3

4) Brees 27 and 1

5) Rivers 29 and 9

6) Romo 44 and 7

7) Schaub 58 and 24 - missed 6 gms

8) Ryan 61 and 8

9) Roethlisberger 67 and 13 - missed 1 gm

10) P Manning 72 and nada

11) Stafford 80 and 5

12) Frreman 81 and 14

Who all fits in the category that y'all are comfortable drafting in the first round? If it is just Rodgers, Brady, and Brees then maybe their consistency is worthy of that top draft pick. However, the guys that got Romo in the 4th, Stafford in the 7th, Eli Manning even later and Newton in the last round or off the waiver wire are right there with your first round expense.

Unless the league allows more than one QB to be played, I am still seeing this as a risk filled strategy as you need 2 RBs in almost all leagues. It is still a supply demand debate.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I have been saying for a few years around here that RB in round1 is a dead drafting style in 12/10 man re-drafts.

The numbers suggest that you are wrong. If you said this before 2011 - very wrong.

Not at all.The RBs were still getting injured pre-2011and not provided maximum value since LT and marshall faulk fell off the cliff.The league has changed and people are slow to recognize, take advantage I say.ans in 2012 the top scorers in FFL leagues will be the elite level QBs, again

 

[David Yudkin]

I have been saying for a few years around here that RB in round1 is a dead drafting style in 12/10 man re-drafts.

The numbers suggest that you are wrong. If you said this before 2011 - very wrong.

The other thing to consider (again, better served for another thread) is that by the middle to the end of the season, many NFL teams have moved on from their RB1 that started the season and someone else would be getting th bulk of the RB scoring. That could be due to injury (usually), ineffectiveness, a change to more of a RBBC, etc. If we collectively know that going in, that leaves a lot of cheaper RB to be had without having to invest as much in a first round RB.In the second half of the seasons, the following had weeks with Top 10 RB numbers (that clearly were not close to first round picks or in some cases were not even drafted):McGahee, Helu, Murray, Tolbert, Bush South, Bush West, KSmith, Ogbonnaya, McKnight, Clay, Morris, McCluster, Barber, Spiller, Brown, Bell, Gerhart, Ball, Royster, Ivory, and Redman.So the value of the first round RB (taken as a whole) many times can erode over the course of the season. Finding decent RB options for cheap late in the year and for the fantasy playoffs usually is not that hard to find.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Who all fits in the category that y'all are comfortable drafting in the first round? If it is just Rodgers, Brady, and Brees then maybe their consistency is worthy of that top draft pick.

I think so. I mean these guys are money. For whatever reason, they all had some sort of question marks going into the season. For Rodgers - Finley had an off year coming off injury, Driver was aging, Jordy Nelson was a bit of unknown. For Brady - How would Ochocinco affect the passing game? Could the rookie TE's prove that last year wasn't a fluke? Brees - Everyone thought Mark Ingram was going to change the dynamic of that offense to a more balanced attack. Who would of guessed that Sproles would have such a dynamic impact that he would have?, or Graham to take his game to the next level?

 

[Concept Coop]

I think that point goes to suggest the opposite of your intention. You list a number of players that all had value at different points of the season - how many roster spots would you need to compile a full season of RB1 production? Not to mention, the luck associated with getting them in the order in which they produced.

Elite RBs stay out of RBBC - good RBs don't.

When talking about VORP - everything should go into the equation, including likelihood of replacement/RBBC, et cetera.

Those that drafted Aaron Rodgers got 15 games of QB1 play - great. Those that drafted Eli Manning MUCH later, got the same. The disparity in risk between the positions is not nearly as significant as that between RBs.

So, because so many RBs are replaced or fall victum to RBBC, those talented enough to stay out get a bump. The same is not true for QBs. Again, most starting QBs are safe bets to get 16 games of production. The same is not so for RBs.

 

[fightingillini]

The part about the fewer bell cow RBs has a direct bearing on what people should be considering later in the first round. For example, there were only 8 RB with 300 touches this year and 2 of them (S-Jax and CJohnson) didn't really come close to being first round value. If there is a glut of second tier RBs (at least in terms of workload), it might make more sense to worry about taking a 200 touch back later on (rounds 2-5) if the same type of player can be had throughout those rounds.To be clear, I am not saying people should or should not take a QB in the first round, I am just opening the door for some discussion.

I think it is a good conversation to have. I think there are QB worthy of a 1st round pick. But you can "lock up" a QB in rounds 2-4, at least. The RBs you get in that range are far from locks. Give me Romo/Eli in round 4-5, coupled with an elite RB, over Brees coupled with RBs like Best, F. Jones, Bradshaw, Blount - who all went in that range.

Two comments1) no guarantee that you can roster Romo or Eli in Rounds 4-5. They may go earlier than that. QBs are generally going much faster than in the past.2) IMO the only elite RBs that I would take over Brees in a PPR league is Rice, Foster, McCoy, and MJD. In nonPPR or with leagues that give 6 pts per TD pass, I take Rodgers #1 overall and Brees #2 overall. A tougher decision will be in a PPR and 4 pts per TD pass.....I wouldn't argue against going with Rodgers/Brees or a Rice/Foster. So your scoring system will make an impact. And you may not be in position to draft one of the 4 elite RBs.

 

[butcher boy]

Who all fits in the category that y'all are comfortable drafting in the first round? If it is just Rodgers, Brady, and Brees then maybe their consistency is worthy of that top draft pick. However, the guys that got Romo in the 4th, Stafford in the 7th, Eli Manning even later and Newton in the last round or off the waiver wire are right there with your first round expense.

Except this is predicated on two things, a) that you're able to correctly identify next year's Cam Newton, or next year's Eli Manning (established QB that's going to have a career year), and b) that you correctly "hit" on your late first round RB choice and not draft a bust. If you fail to correctly identify a stud QB in the late rounds, you're not going to find much help on the waiver wire. There are always running backs that come out of nowhere, however and they can be claimed off waivers. This tells me it doesnt make much sense to waste a first round pick on a potential RB bust. Go for the sure points in a stud QB, then if your combo of Bradshaw/McGahee/Tolbert doesnt work out for you, grab a few RBs off waivers.

 

[johnadams]

You have to have a backup QB.

Didn't carry one all year except for my bye week 8. Picked up and tossed back Tebow for one week, and then never bothered to roster another one.

I think that is far form the norm. In many leagues, you can't get starting QBs off the wire every week.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but not this. Getting a quality guy is tough, but nabbing a spot starter isn't too difficult. You should be able to see the league and if rostering QBs is a big deal, then a low level trade or a ww pick-up a couple of weeks before the bye isn't diffult. Injury is a different matter and that's the big gamble, but navigating a bye week isn't really that tough, unless it's a large league or start 2QB, which means this is not a recommended strategy.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

FWIW, I just had a 16 team dynasty startup draft where 11 QBs went in the first round. That was a complete shock to me, but I get it. Nobody wanted to miss out on getting a quality QB and taking a chance on guys like Bradford, Freeman, etc.

 

[Concept Coop]

Who all fits in the category that y'all are comfortable drafting in the first round? If it is just Rodgers, Brady, and Brees then maybe their consistency is worthy of that top draft pick. However, the guys that got Romo in the 4th, Stafford in the 7th, Eli Manning even later and Newton in the last round or off the waiver wire are right there with your first round expense.

Except this is predicated on two things, a) that you're able to correctly identify next year's Cam Newton, or next year's Eli Manning (established QB that's going to have a career year), and b) that you correctly "hit" on your late first round RB choice and not draft a bust. If you fail to correctly identify a stud QB in the late rounds, you're not going to find much help on the waiver wire. There are always running backs that come out of nowhere, however and they can be claimed off waivers. This tells me it doesnt make much sense to waste a first round pick on a potential RB bust. Go for the sure points in a stud QB, then if your combo of Bradshaw/McGahee/Tolbert doesnt work out for you, grab a few RBs off waivers.

Not at all. Brady was a safe bet in the 2nd/3rd. Romo was a safe bet in the 5th. There were plenty of QBs drafted after the 1st round who were safe bets. And people seem to be ignoring Vick and Rivers - who show that QBs can bust as well. "Grabbing a few RBs" off the wire isn't as easy as you make it out to be. For a week here and there, sure. But finding a collection of WW RBs to make up the scoring difference bewteen my stud RB is big.Sure, you can list 7 names, but remember there are 11-13 other guys trying to get those RBs too. Then, you need them on the right weeks.So, someone please show me a LIKELY or "easy" combination of guys that can keep up with Foster, McCoy, Rice, ADP/Toby, DMC/Bush.

 

[fightingillini]

The case of drafting a 1st round QB is that their bust rate is much lower than a RB or WR. Also, they are extremely consistent while possessing practically unlimited upside. Can anyone find a reason why Rodgers won't throw for 4500+ yards, get 250 more on the ground and get 40+ TDs next year? I can't. Injury is the only reason. It's not like GB is all of a sudden going to start running the ball. You have Jennnings, Nelson, Finley, J Jones and Cobb......why give the ball to Starks 20+ times? You can say the same with NO and NE. Newton is a slight risk, but his upside is through the roof. Why take on a RB or WR in round 1 where the bust rate is 50% or more? Unless you're getting Foster, Rice or McCoy, IMO you have to consider Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Newton in Round 1. Take the money in the bank and draft a slew of RBs/WRs later and it's easier to find gems later in the draft. Also, taking a stud QB in Round 1 will likely open a roster spot....as in many leagues, you can find a WW QB to cover your stud's bye.

I am not saying that you HAVE to take a QB in round 1, I am saying that's a very viable option and one that could win your league right there. An old saying goes "you can't win your fantasy draft with your 1st round pick.....but you can certainly lose it". Well that's bogus. You can win your league with your 1st round, evidenced by many championship rosters with Rodgers on it.

 

[Bird]

Remember when the top 18 RB would be drafted within the first 24 picks? Those days are thankfully over. This year has definitely changed my philosophy for projections for next season. Usually, my QB projections are loosely based upon 4000/25 being an above average year but this year's numbers blow those away and I see the trend continuing. If you have multiple QBs over 4500/30 then the elite guys are going to have insanely high VBD numbers as the rise in stats for QB10 through QB14 seems to be much flatter. The elite WR position seems to have been affected most by the increase in QB yards. The QB is garnering all those extra fantasy points from increased passing but the numbers are being spread over more WR and TE. QB value is surmounting WR value while RB value seems to be about the same but unable to keep up with the rising QB values. I think as people adjust their projections for these outlandish QB numbers then you will see many drafts having 3-4 QB, 4-6 RB and 2-3 WR selected in the first round. To me, this is a good thing as it allows for multiple ways to construct a team on draft day.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think that point goes to suggest the opposite of your intention. You list a number of players that all had value at different points of the season - how many roster spots would you need to compile a full season of RB1 production? Not to mention, the luck associated with getting them in the order in which they produced. Elite RBs stay out of RBBC - good RBs don't. When talking about VORP - everything should go into the equation, including likelihood of replacement/RBBC, et cetera. Those that drafted Aaron Rodgers got 15 games of QB1 play - great. Those that drafted Eli Manning MUCH later, got the same. The disparity in risk between the positions is not nearly as significant as that between RBs. So, because so many RBs are replaced or fall victum to RBBC, those talented enough to stay out get a bump. The same is not true for QBs. Again, most starting QBs are safe bets to get 16 games of production. The same is not so for RBs.

The point was that midway through the season and beyond, some of the Top 10 RB producers each week WERE NOT EVEN CLOSE to first round fantasy picks. So even if you did take a first round RB, you would have to look elsewhere. If you took Brees / Brady / Rodgers, you would not have been scrambling to find a replacement. And if you had one of those QBs, finding another decent RB play would not have been as imperative as if you ended up with Ryan or Freeman or another simply "ok" QB option. (Yes, I am aware that some of the names on the ones I just listed were "handcuffs," but some of them were not.)There will always be stop gap RBs available later in the year. I play in leagues with blind bidding. I hardly ever bid on players early in the season for this exact reason. With all other owners down to their last few dollars, I can pick and choose which free agents I want because I simply outbid the other teams because they have no money left to outbid me.Yes, QBs can get hurt to, but I don't think they get banged up anywhere near as much as RBs do.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, someone please show me a LIKELY or "easy" combination of guys that can keep up with Foster, McCoy, Rice, ADP/Toby, DMC/Bush.

Let's take what you just listed as a turism (or a fact). I am not disagreeing with you, so we are on the same page. That's 5 players and or situations. In most leagues, there are 12 players taken in the first round. Past the 5 you listed, who else would you want to take in the first round at RB? Even NOT at RB? There are 7 picks left to go. In reality, we know ADP won't be a first round pick next year, so you are down to 4. For argument's sake, lets say things went like this:1 Foster2 Rice3 McCoy4 McFadden56789101112Who else goes in the next 8 slots?

 

[footballnerd]

Stafford, Matt Ryan, Tebow, and Big Ben got me to the championships this year although two of them failed in the superbowl (Romo got me to the playoffs in others). Still big on stacking my depth in RBs and WRs the first 6 rounds and maybe taking a QB if value is good for one of those rounds. My depth this year in WR/RB saved my ###!

But I do agree that with the new NFL rules the passing game is taking off bigt ime and a first round QB should be considered, although the new rules could also mean the next tier of QBs are likely to go off as well.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think that point goes to suggest the opposite of your intention. You list a number of players that all had value at different points of the season - how many roster spots would you need to compile a full season of RB1 production? Not to mention, the luck associated with getting them in the order in which they produced. Elite RBs stay out of RBBC - good RBs don't. When talking about VORP - everything should go into the equation, including likelihood of replacement/RBBC, et cetera. Those that drafted Aaron Rodgers got 15 games of QB1 play - great. Those that drafted Eli Manning MUCH later, got the same. The disparity in risk between the positions is not nearly as significant as that between RBs. So, because so many RBs are replaced or fall victum to RBBC, those talented enough to stay out get a bump. The same is not true for QBs. Again, most starting QBs are safe bets to get 16 games of production. The same is not so for RBs.

The point was that midway through the season and beyond, some of the Top 10 RB producers each week WERE NOT EVEN CLOSE to first round fantasy picks. So even if you did take a first round RB, you would have to look elsewhere. If you took Brees / Brady / Rodgers, you would not have been scrambling to find a replacement. And if you had one of those QBs, finding another decent RB play would not have been as imperative as if you ended up with Ryan or Freeman or another simply "ok" QB option. (Yes, I am aware that some of the names on the ones I just listed were "handcuffs," but some of them were not.)There will always be stop gap RBs available later in the year. I play in leagues with blind bidding. I hardly ever bid on players early in the season for this exact reason. With all other owners down to their last few dollars, I can pick and choose which free agents I want because I simply outbid the other teams because they have no money left to outbid me.Yes, QBs can get hurt to, but I don't think they get banged up anywhere near as much as RBs do.

Stop gap RBs are lucky to produce baseline. Stop gap RBs require multiple roster spots, and a great deal of luck. I can get a QB that produces VBD after round one. Brady, Romo, Stafford, Newton, Eli are 5 off the top of my head. I am sure there were more. Getting baseline does nothing for you, if I have a 3rd round QB like Eli/Romo and Arian Foster. Romo/Foster > Rodgers/Baseline (when you are lucky enough to get baseline, and guess the right week).

 

[butcher boy]

I think that point goes to suggest the opposite of your intention. You list a number of players that all had value at different points of the season - how many roster spots would you need to compile a full season of RB1 production? Not to mention, the luck associated with getting them in the order in which they produced.

Elite RBs stay out of RBBC - good RBs don't.

When talking about VORP - everything should go into the equation, including likelihood of replacement/RBBC, et cetera.

Those that drafted Aaron Rodgers got 15 games of QB1 play - great. Those that drafted Eli Manning MUCH later, got the same. The disparity in risk between the positions is not nearly as significant as that between RBs.

So, because so many RBs are replaced or fall victum to RBBC, those talented enough to stay out get a bump. The same is not true for QBs. Again, most starting QBs are safe bets to get 16 games of production. The same is not so for RBs.

The point was that midway through the season and beyond, some of the Top 10 RB producers each week WERE NOT EVEN CLOSE to first round fantasy picks. So even if you did take a first round RB, you would have to look elsewhere. If you took Brees / Brady / Rodgers, you would not have been scrambling to find a replacement. And if you had one of those QBs, finding another decent RB play would not have been as imperative as if you ended up with Ryan or Freeman or another simply "ok" QB option. (Yes, I am aware that some of the names on the ones I just listed were "handcuffs," but some of them were not.)There will always be stop gap RBs available later in the year. I play in leagues with blind bidding. I hardly ever bid on players early in the season for this exact reason. With all other owners down to their last few dollars, I can pick and choose which free agents I want because I simply outbid the other teams because they have no money left to outbid me.

Yes, QBs can get hurt to, but I don't think they get banged up anywhere near as much as RBs do.

Stop gap RBs are lucky to produce baseline. Stop gap RBs require multiple roster spots, and a great deal of luck. I can get a QB that produces VBD after round one. Brady, Romo, Stafford, Newton, Eli are 5 off the top of my head. I am sure there were more.

Getting baseline does nothing for you, if I have a 3rd round QB like Eli/Romo and Arian Foster.

Romo/Foster > Rodgers/Baseline (when you are lucky enough to get baseline, and guess the right week).

But there is also a great deal of luck that the guy you target in the mid-late first round will not bust as well. You seem to be talking only in terms of VBD but you're ignoring the fact that a player's value is only realized if they don't get hurt or dont bust.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

So, someone please show me a LIKELY or "easy" combination of guys that can keep up with Foster, McCoy, Rice, ADP/Toby, DMC/Bush.

Let's take what you just listed as a turism (or a fact). I am not disagreeing with you, so we are on the same page. That's 5 players and or situations. In most leagues, there are 12 players taken in the first round. Past the 5 you listed, who else would you want to take in the first round at RB? Even NOT at RB? There are 7 picks left to go. In reality, we know ADP won't be a first round pick next year, so you are down to 4. For argument's sake, lets say things went like this:1 Foster2 Rice3 McCoy4 Rodgers5 Brees6 Jones-Drew7 Forte8 Brady9 Calvin J101112Who else goes in the next 8 slots?

I can see the top 9 picks going like this next year...after that, it's a crap shoot right now. I don't think McFadden has a fart's chance in a sandstorm of being a top-5 pick in many drafts.

 

[Concept Coop]

So, someone please show me a LIKELY or "easy" combination of guys that can keep up with Foster, McCoy, Rice, ADP/Toby, DMC/Bush.

Let's take what you just listed as a turism (or a fact). I am not disagreeing with you, so we are on the same page. That's 5 players and or situations. In most leagues, there are 12 players taken in the first round. Past the 5 you listed, who else would you want to take in the first round at RB? Even NOT at RB? There are 7 picks left to go. In reality, we know ADP won't be a first round pick next year, so you are down to 4. For argument's sake, lets say things went like this:1 Foster2 Rice3 McCoy4 McFadden56789101112Who else goes in the next 8 slots?

In no particular orderRodgersBreesGronkowskiForte/BellMJD/JenningsCalvinWelkerCJ1KBradyNewtonF. JacksonAgain, I did not intend to suggest that no QB is worth a 1st round pick, and I said as much. But there are plenty of RB/WR/TEs worth 1st round consideration.