Drafting for Value (1 Viewer)

[Winston Wolfe]

If a player is drafted well before his ADP and there is a chorus of "That was a reach", "Bad pick. That player would have been available X rounds later", etc. If a player is taken well after his ADP you here "Great pick.", "I'm surprised he was still there, great value".

This brings me to my question. What constitutes value? I mean really, how do you quantify it? Some would simply say that it is drafting a player after his stated ADP. Others would say that it occurs when you draft the last player just before a drop off in points. I don't think either of these answers are completely right.

This brings me to a second question. Some players are considered of value at their stated ADP, while others are not considered value. At what point in the draft does the player not considered of value finally hold value?

VBD works great if you properly use it, but I would guess that the vast majority don't know how to properly use it. Just because a player has a higher X value does not mean he is the proper player to draft. Furthermore, I beleive that ADP has become the cheatsheet of a new generation.

So how do we exploit this?

 

[Bri]

Furthermore, I beleive that ADP has become the cheatsheet of a new generation.

So how do we exploit this?

draft someone out of turn, if they use that for a cheatsheet chances are they're the type that pays too much attention to your team and who you're drafting

 

[Bri]

If a player is drafted well before his ADP and there is a chorus of "That was a reach", "Bad pick. That player would have been available X rounds later", etc. If a player is taken well after his ADP you here "Great pick.", "I'm surprised he was still there, great value".

This brings me to my question. What constitutes value? I mean really, how do you quantify it?

Any 15 week(-1 for bye in FF season)starter taken in any round is a sound pick. It's an undebatable but very grrr fact about drafting. If I took Mike Anderson in the 10th round last year and he started 15 weeks(suppose) then he was a better pick than alot of RBs taken ahead of him probably 10-20 taken from round 4 thru 10.Any backup that only plays to cover the bye, that player's value is dependant upon whether you win that week. How he performs, of course, is an issue but oddly it's not such a big deal if you win anyway. If said backup never has to start on your team due to injury he's probably a poor pick but you won't care because it's a good prob. IE if you drafted a good backup RB in round 4 and he only had to play one(or two) weeks well then you hardly got "your money's worth" and I suppose a starting WR would have been better at that spot. But drafting is all about foresight and not hindsight.

That's many drafters probs is they're often sitting out week 16 saying how they would have done something differently "in hindsight" usually starts with "if soandso would have just met my projections"....

So it's back to foresight as that's what projections/predictions are. I think folks are afraid to not put thought into it and expect the same stats(relatively) from most players. They don't always improve or "fall" dramatically.

Take gem of a WR pick marvin harrison

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/HarrMa00.htm

you see a 3,4, and 3 year clusters that are relatively similar.

Now last year people wasted time predicting a drop for him. Wayne would get better and steal his catches and he's just get old. IF they just predicted a similar season they'd have been pretty close. see the last two years

|2004 ind | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 86 1113 12.9 15 |

| 2005 ind | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 82 1146 14.0 12 |

Harrison was the 16th best player in this PPR league

http://football27.myfantasyleague.com/2005...ns?L=18026&O=08

He was drafted 20th there and in RB heavy early drafts I saw him go as low as 25-30. Just drafting him where he's been, you'd have been fine.

Randy Moss is the darling of many FF fans but he hasn't been a gem of a pick in sometime. Still folks will predict a 1400+14 TD season from him. He's been a poor value then for the last two years.

While I don't do projections when asked I like to tell folks to rush thru them and be afraid of putting too much thought into them. It can easily become a trap IMO and you'll just be convincing yourself that player is better or worse than he is. Some savvy FF veterans have a "good head on their shoulders" when doing projections and realize this. As long as someone realizes it, it's no trap.

OK? Too much thinking example done

I'd go on but this seems too long already, maybe later

 

[SSOG]

A simplistic way to see where there's value is to rank players and then look at ADP. If you have a WR ranked as WR10, and WR10 is usually selected in the 5th round, and that player is going in the 8th round, then that player represents value (in the 8th).

Value is extremely subjective. Last season, some people thought that Mike Anderson represented value, while others were convinced that he was an absolute wasted pick with no value at all (early on in the offseason, at least). Basically, your "value" estimates are only as good as your projections... and historically, even the best of projections aren't very good.

 

[Bri]

A simplistic way to see where there's value is to rank players and then look at ADP. If you have a WR ranked as WR10, and WR10 is usually selected in the 5th round, and that player is going in the 8th round, then that player represents value (in the 8th).

I don't believe this is true. I think it sounds good but ADP is the average of other drafts and the value is really only present in yours. That's a major difference esp when you get a bunch of RB hungry folks in a draft and they pile on the RBs for the first 3 rounds. Or in a survivor draft where QBs, go what appears to be, way too early and often.If there's no talent left in the player pool, then there's no talent left. You can't think how smart you were to get a 2nd round WR(ADP) in round 3 and watch "all" the RBs be gone.

Value is very draft specific IMO and ADP is just a good outline or rough draft but no cheatsheet

 

[Winston Wolfe]

A simplistic way to see where there's value is to rank players and then look at ADP. If you have a WR ranked as WR10, and WR10 is usually selected in the 5th round, and that player is going in the 8th round, then that player represents value (in the 8th).

However, if you take that player in the 7th is he value? And conversely, if I player does not represent value in the 5th round, at what point does he represent value?I'm actually working on something to quantify that.

 

[Kleck]

For me value is relative to the moment in time.

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

After the season ends: Value for me was players that I drafted that out-produced the slot I drafted them in.

Good question, Ken. However, I think we need to distinguish between the two.

 

[Bri]

I'm actually working on something to quantify that.

you and robert pirsig both

 

[Bri]

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

somewhat repeat reply cuz I'm curious what your response will be.ADP is the average of other drafts not yours. How do you tell the value in your specific draft?

 

[Tiger Fan]

1) If you consider ADP as market value, than anytime you grab a player before the ADP you are losing value, and anytime you grab a player after his ADP, you gain value.

2) Given #1 above, each person has his own opinion on what a certain player should be ranked. If you think Warrick Dunn should be ranked RB15, than he has more value to you the closer you draft him to his ADP. If you think Dunn should be ranked RB22, than you should avoid Dunn (assuming that he will be drafted at his ADP)

3) I would think that a more approprate definition for value would be drafting a player after where you think he is ranked. In #1 above anytime as long as you grab Dunn after RB15, Dunn is valuable to you.

4) In order to quanify this you take the the average of what that position rank (RB20 in this case) is projected to score (AVT - average value theory). In this example lets say RB20 = 150 points. B/c I think Dunn should be ranked RB15 and RB15's AVT projects him to score 175 points, Dunn then has a value of 25 points (if I draft him at his true ADP rank).

So in summary, I think people should start paying more attention to ADP position rank. I think an overall ADP is valuable, but not as much as an ADP position rank.

 

[Tiger Fan]

If a player is drafted well before his ADP and there is a chorus of "That was a reach", "Bad pick. That player would have been available X rounds later", etc. If a player is taken well after his ADP you here "Great pick.", "I'm surprised he was still there, great value".

This brings me to my question. What constitutes value? I mean really, how do you quantify it?

Any 15 week(-1 for bye in FF season)starter taken in any round is a sound pick. It's an undebatable but very grrr fact about drafting. If I took Mike Anderson in the 10th round last year and he started 15 weeks(suppose) then he was a better pick than alot of RBs taken ahead of him probably 10-20 taken from round 4 thru 10.Any backup that only plays to cover the bye, that player's value is dependant upon whether you win that week. How he performs, of course, is an issue but oddly it's not such a big deal if you win anyway. If said backup never has to start on your team due to injury he's probably a poor pick but you won't care because it's a good prob. IE if you drafted a good backup RB in round 4 and he only had to play one(or two) weeks well then you hardly got "your money's worth" and I suppose a starting WR would have been better at that spot. But drafting is all about foresight and not hindsight.

That's many drafters probs is they're often sitting out week 16 saying how they would have done something differently "in hindsight" usually starts with "if soandso would have just met my projections"....

So it's back to foresight as that's what projections/predictions are. I think folks are afraid to not put thought into it and expect the same stats(relatively) from most players. They don't always improve or "fall" dramatically.

Take gem of a WR pick marvin harrison

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/HarrMa00.htm

you see a 3,4, and 3 year clusters that are relatively similar.

Now last year people wasted time predicting a drop for him. Wayne would get better and steal his catches and he's just get old. IF they just predicted a similar season they'd have been pretty close. see the last two years

|2004 ind | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 86 1113 12.9 15 |

| 2005 ind | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 82 1146 14.0 12 |

Harrison was the 16th best player in this PPR league

http://football27.myfantasyleague.com/2005...ns?L=18026&O=08

He was drafted 20th there and in RB heavy early drafts I saw him go as low as 25-30. Just drafting him where he's been, you'd have been fine.

Randy Moss is the darling of many FF fans but he hasn't been a gem of a pick in sometime. Still folks will predict a 1400+14 TD season from him. He's been a poor value then for the last two years.

While I don't do projections when asked I like to tell folks to rush thru them and be afraid of putting too much thought into them. It can easily become a trap IMO and you'll just be convincing yourself that player is better or worse than he is. Some savvy FF veterans have a "good head on their shoulders" when doing projections and realize this. As long as someone realizes it, it's no trap.

OK? Too much thinking example done

I'd go on but this seems too long already, maybe later

I think WW was referring to before the season starts.

 

[The Redbeard]

For me value is relative to the moment in time.

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

After the season ends: Value for me was players that I drafted that out-produced the slot I drafted them in.

Good question, Ken. However, I think we need to distinguish between the two.

Beat me to the punch on making this very important point as to what sort of value we are talking about. . .Now, for me - value on draft night is all about a game of chicken. Not against the ADP, but against my fellow owners. "Value" comes in relation to where in the draft a comperable player was taken ahead of me. If you take a QB in the 4th round, and I take a QB in the 8th round that I had ranked as the next best on the board - in my little mind, I got a great value.

But, I think that Shick! is on to something with his second deffinition of value. I garuntee that on draft night - everyone likes their team. Everyone thinks that they got great value.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

somewhat repeat reply cuz I'm curious what your response will be.ADP is the average of other drafts not yours. How do you tell the value in your specific draft?

Assuming you are using ADP that has been determined with your same scoring system this is the most efficient way to determine a market value before your actual draft.If there is a better way, please enlighten.

 

[SSOG]

A simplistic way to see where there's value is to rank players and then look at ADP. If you have a WR ranked as WR10, and WR10 is usually selected in the 5th round, and that player is going in the 8th round, then that player represents value (in the 8th).

I don't believe this is true. I think it sounds good but ADP is the average of other drafts and the value is really only present in yours. That's a major difference esp when you get a bunch of RB hungry folks in a draft and they pile on the RBs for the first 3 rounds. Or in a survivor draft where QBs, go what appears to be, way too early and often.If there's no talent left in the player pool, then there's no talent left. You can't think how smart you were to get a 2nd round WR(ADP) in round 3 and watch "all" the RBs be gone.

Value is very draft specific IMO and ADP is just a good outline or rough draft but no cheatsheet

See quotes for emphasis.I put a lot more work into identifying value, such as going back through previous drafts in this league to identify each player's personal preferences (i.e. know what players are going to jump early on Gonzo and Gates and which are going to sluff a TE until very late), as well as several other little things to get an adjusted "anticipated ADP" list. I was just giving some very simple terms to think of value in.

A simplistic way to see where there's value is to rank players and then look at ADP. If you have a WR ranked as WR10, and WR10 is usually selected in the 5th round, and that player is going in the 8th round, then that player represents value (in the 8th).

However, if you take that player in the 7th is he value? And conversely, if I player does not represent value in the 5th round, at what point does he represent value?I'm actually working on something to quantify that.

If he is normally going in the 5th, then he represents "value" in the 6th. How late you get him determines how much "value" he represents.

 

[Bri]

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

somewhat repeat reply cuz I'm curious what your response will be.ADP is the average of other drafts not yours. How do you tell the value in your specific draft?

Assuming you are using ADP that has been determined with your same scoring system this is the most efficient way to determine a market value before your actual draft.If there is a better way, please enlighten.

we're nitpicking here thoughADP before the draft? who cares. You just care who you get on draftday.

Market value comment I don't get because the market is your draft without it....

scuze the nitpicking, maybe it's essential for us to get it out of the way to continue the debate. I do think this could be a worthwhile debate

 

[Bri]

A simplistic way to see where there's value is to rank players and then look at ADP. If you have a WR ranked as WR10, and WR10 is usually selected in the 5th round, and that player is going in the 8th round, then that player represents value (in the 8th).

I don't believe this is true. I think it sounds good but ADP is the average of other drafts and the value is really only present in yours. That's a major difference esp when you get a bunch of RB hungry folks in a draft and they pile on the RBs for the first 3 rounds. Or in a survivor draft where QBs, go what appears to be, way too early and often.If there's no talent left in the player pool, then there's no talent left. You can't think how smart you were to get a 2nd round WR(ADP) in round 3 and watch "all" the RBs be gone.

Value is very draft specific IMO and ADP is just a good outline or rough draft but no cheatsheet

See quotes for emphasis.I put a lot more work into identifying value, such as going back through previous drafts in this league to identify each player's personal preferences (i.e. know what players are going to jump early on Gonzo and Gates and which are going to sluff a TE until very late), as well as several other little things to get an adjusted "anticipated ADP" list. I was just giving some very simple terms to think of value in.

well then, go on with that thought. What else? Tendencies is a good point and one I consider too. How does that play into value? Carry on....please

 

[Bri]

If he is normally going in the 5th, then he represents "value" in the 6th. How late you get him determines how much "value" he represents.

not necessarilymaybe the ADP is wrong and player Y should have been going in round 7, suppose the preseason dominance some young players show but not in the regular season for example

 

[Bri]

If a player is drafted well before his ADP and there is a chorus of "That was a reach", "Bad pick. That player would have been available X rounds later", etc. If a player is taken well after his ADP you here "Great pick.", "I'm surprised he was still there, great value".

This brings me to my question. What constitutes value? I mean really, how do you quantify it?

Any 15 week(-1 for bye in FF season)starter taken in any round is a sound pick. It's an undebatable but very grrr fact about drafting. If I took Mike Anderson in the 10th round last year and he started 15 weeks(suppose) then he was a better pick than alot of RBs taken ahead of him probably 10-20 taken from round 4 thru 10.Any backup that only plays to cover the bye, that player's value is dependant upon whether you win that week. How he performs, of course, is an issue but oddly it's not such a big deal if you win anyway. If said backup never has to start on your team due to injury he's probably a poor pick but you won't care because it's a good prob. IE if you drafted a good backup RB in round 4 and he only had to play one(or two) weeks well then you hardly got "your money's worth" and I suppose a starting WR would have been better at that spot. But drafting is all about foresight and not hindsight.

That's many drafters probs is they're often sitting out week 16 saying how they would have done something differently "in hindsight" usually starts with "if soandso would have just met my projections"....

So it's back to foresight as that's what projections/predictions are. I think folks are afraid to not put thought into it and expect the same stats(relatively) from most players. They don't always improve or "fall" dramatically.

Take gem of a WR pick marvin harrison

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/HarrMa00.htm

you see a 3,4, and 3 year clusters that are relatively similar.

Now last year people wasted time predicting a drop for him. Wayne would get better and steal his catches and he's just get old. IF they just predicted a similar season they'd have been pretty close. see the last two years

|2004 ind | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 86 1113 12.9 15 |

| 2005 ind | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 82 1146 14.0 12 |

Harrison was the 16th best player in this PPR league

http://football27.myfantasyleague.com/2005...ns?L=18026&O=08

He was drafted 20th there and in RB heavy early drafts I saw him go as low as 25-30. Just drafting him where he's been, you'd have been fine.

Randy Moss is the darling of many FF fans but he hasn't been a gem of a pick in sometime. Still folks will predict a 1400+14 TD season from him. He's been a poor value then for the last two years.

While I don't do projections when asked I like to tell folks to rush thru them and be afraid of putting too much thought into them. It can easily become a trap IMO and you'll just be convincing yourself that player is better or worse than he is. Some savvy FF veterans have a "good head on their shoulders" when doing projections and realize this. As long as someone realizes it, it's no trap.

OK? Too much thinking example done

I'd go on but this seems too long already, maybe later

I think WW was referring to before the season starts.

and so did I

 

[The Redbeard]

If he is normally going in the 5th, then he represents "value" in the 6th. How late you get him determines how much "value" he represents.

not necessarilymaybe the ADP is wrong and player Y should have been going in round 7, suppose the preseason dominance some young players show but not in the regular season for example

ADP can not be wrong. It is mearly a representation of the data that gets put into it. You are starting to combine the crystal ball that are projections with the hard evidence that are season end statistics. If you start saying things like maybe the ADP is wrong then you are answering your own question and establishing the definition of value as a player that performs at a higher level than players taken in similar positions of the draft.

 

[Bri]

If he is normally going in the 5th, then he represents "value" in the 6th. How late you get him determines how much "value" he represents.

not necessarilymaybe the ADP is wrong and player Y should have been going in round 7, suppose the preseason dominance some young players show but not in the regular season for example

ADP can not be wrong. It is mearly a representation of the data that gets put into it. You are starting to combine the crystal ball that are projections with the hard evidence that are season end statistics. If you start saying things like maybe the ADP is wrong then you are answering your own question and establishing the definition of value as a player that performs at a higher level than players taken in similar positions of the draft.

good point

 

[GetThePoint]

I'm going to be a bit of a value detractor here. Getting a player at a value if only good if you actually get that player...

Sometimes I find that if you spend too much time searching for value picks, you may actually miss out on some of the players you really want. Last year, Larry Johnson was almost universally deemed a good fifth round value pick, and a great value pick thereafter. However, someone in one of my leagues drafted him early fourth, and was criticized for doing so. However, we all know how that neded up...

My point: don't sacrifice players that you really want in the name of value. While getting good value for your picks is certainly a good thing, don't let it completely run your draft. If you have to overpay slightly for the players you want, I would do it if it meant you got those players. It's more important to pay attention to positional drop-offs than it is to strict value.

Just my experience of losing players I wanted because I thought they may fall to my next pick where I could get good "value" for them.

 

[Keysersoze666]

Good topic, I think the term "value" is so overused/misused that it often becomes meaningless in many conversations. In my mind, I try to think of value in two simple ways:

True Meaning: AFTER the season is over and there are RESULTS which can be used to calculate which picks were good and bad, you can judge VALUE and only then. It's the only time when value has a concrete meaning beyond the abstract idea that "I drafted him(any player) in a spot that I shouldn't have been able to."

Draft Day Meaning: I start with ADP rankings based on my league's scoring system and integrate that data into my personal projections. I then recalibrate based on the latest news trends (injuries or other) just before the draft and the tendencies of the owners in this particular league as well as my own hunches. So I enter that draft with a "This Draft's Current Market Value" document, based on all the aforementioned factors. I use that as a guide for this one draft only because it only reflects the specifics of today with this group of owners, nothing more, nothing less. Any draft move I make at the draft is PERCEIVED VALUE, nothing more, nothing less. Judging the "value" of my draft that day is simply wishful thinking, based on nothing but "projections" and personal conjecture.

Using the hard line of only judging value by using actual results, FORCES you to focus on what matters, RESULTS. Like GetThePoint just stated in the last post, taking a player X picks early and getting results, blows away getting "perceived value" by taking a guy X picks later who doesn't produce. The goal is to say your team was most "valuable" at the end of the year because they yielded a championship. Trusting my own opinions about players and team situations will always outweigh a "value" pick, even if it isn't always as sexy on draft day.

 

[Charley]

Good topic, I think the term "value" is so overused/misused that it often becomes meaningless in many conversations.  In my mind, I try to think of value in two simple ways:

True Meaning:  AFTER the season is over and there are RESULTS which can be used to calculate which picks were good and bad, you can judge VALUE and only then.  It's the only time when value has a concrete meaning beyond the abstract idea that "I drafted him(any player) in a spot that I shouldn't have been able to."

Draft Day Meaning:  I start with ADP rankings based on my league's scoring system and integrate that data into my personal projections.  I then recalibrate based on the latest news trends (injuries or other) just before the draft and the tendencies of the owners in this particular league as well as my own hunches.  So I enter that draft with a "This Draft's Current Market Value" document, based on all the aforementioned factors.  I use that as a guide for this one draft only because it only reflects the specifics of today with this group of owners, nothing more, nothing less.  Any draft move I make at the draft is PERCEIVED VALUE, nothing more, nothing less.  Judging the "value" of my draft that day is simply wishful thinking, based on nothing but "projections" and personal conjecture.

Using the hard line of only judging value by using actual results, FORCES you to focus on what matters, RESULTS.  Like GetThePoint just stated in the last post, taking a player X picks early and getting results, blows away getting "perceived value" by taking a guy X picks later who doesn't produce.  The goal is to say your team was most "valuable" at the end of the year because they yielded a championship.  Trusting my own opinions about players and team situations will always outweigh a "value" pick, even if it isn't always as sexy on draft day.

After the season is over and you can determine true value (players who greatly outperformed what round they were drafted -- like S. Moss, Bledsoe and Galloway last year), you can generally divide the "value players" into three groups: (1) young players who had an "unanticipated" break-out season, (2) experienced players who were drafted in later rounds and had very good seasons, and (3) backups who were given the opportunity to play because of injuries.

So how can this "retrospective" information be turned around and used in a "prospective" manner on draft day? While realizing that no prediction will be 100% accurate, which of the 3 categories above can be "predicted" the best?

I prefer focusing on the 2nd category. Any young player that has shown potential (3rd-year WRs, etc.) will receive a fair amount of hype, and their high potential usually translates into higher ADP which destroys "value." And it's difficult to predict injuries -- and backups to older or more injury-prone players are generally drafted somewhat higher than other backups (I guess LJ was an exceptional case of this phenomenon last year).

If any experienced player has a mediocre or poor season, then their ADP will plummet the next season. Every season I screen for this type of player. Once I have a list of candidates, then I evaluate each one as thoroughly as I can to determine the reason for the poor production last year (whether temporary or more serious) and try to make an assessment of their prospects for the coming season.

The benefit of this strategy is that most of these candidates will go in late-middle or later rounds. One thing I focus on is proven past performance. I've tracked the results of this strategy over several years. I've been pleased with the percentage of the good candidates (determined by this analysis) who have either solid or very good seasons.

And I would consider all of them to be "value players" because they are drafted lower than their potential performance. Although not every one is a successful draft pick (like S. Moss, Galloway and Bledsoe), a surprising percentage turn out to be at the end of the season -- if you do effective screening of the potential candidates.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

somewhat repeat reply cuz I'm curious what your response will be.ADP is the average of other drafts not yours. How do you tell the value in your specific draft?

Assuming you are using ADP that has been determined with your same scoring system this is the most efficient way to determine a market value before your actual draft.If there is a better way, please enlighten.

we're nitpicking here thoughADP before the draft? who cares. You just care who you get on draftday.

Market value comment I don't get because the market is your draft without it....

scuze the nitpicking, maybe it's essential for us to get it out of the way to continue the debate. I do think this could be a worthwhile debate

Ummm, b/c ADP is a good indicator of where people will be drafted. Obviously the true market value is your actual draft, but I don't think anyone has come out with the time travel machine to make it possible to know the outcome of your draft before it actually occurs.

 

[Bri]

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

somewhat repeat reply cuz I'm curious what your response will be.ADP is the average of other drafts not yours. How do you tell the value in your specific draft?

Assuming you are using ADP that has been determined with your same scoring system this is the most efficient way to determine a market value before your actual draft.If there is a better way, please enlighten.

we're nitpicking here thoughADP before the draft? who cares. You just care who you get on draftday.

Market value comment I don't get because the market is your draft without it....

scuze the nitpicking, maybe it's essential for us to get it out of the way to continue the debate. I do think this could be a worthwhile debate

Ummm, b/c ADP is a good indicator of where people will be drafted. Obviously the true market value is your actual draft, but I don't think anyone has come out with the time travel machine to make it possible to know the outcome of your draft before it actually occurs.

OK but what about this, I'll try and give ya a "in the now" sorta question-you're in a draft:24 RBs went to open the draft, ADP "said" 3 WRs and a QB would have gone by now.

Which has more value to you? the 25th RB, the 3 WRs, or the QB?

Suppose 5 TEs go in round 6 and you're up- a WR that "should have" gone in round 4 is there too. What's ore valuable to you the next TE or WR?

How do you decide that value?(let's say you pick 1st)

1st above-24 RBs went in the first 24 picks so mathematically is it likely 47 will go before ya pick again OR more likely none will? Is there a mathematical formula you follow with probability? Or is it all gut?

If you go WR or QB, do you have to plan(tentatively) when you'll take your next RB right away because 24 went so quick? How do you do that?

TE's too(same with any run I guess) If you don't take a TE and "follow the pack" do you have to plan when you will? How so?

 

[Bri]

Good topic, I think the term "value" is so overused/misused that it often becomes meaningless in many conversations.  In my mind, I try to think of value in two simple ways:

True Meaning:  AFTER the season is over and there are RESULTS which can be used to calculate which picks were good and bad, you can judge VALUE and only then.  It's the only time when value has a concrete meaning beyond the abstract idea that "I drafted him(any player) in a spot that I shouldn't have been able to."

Draft Day Meaning:  I start with ADP rankings based on my league's scoring system and integrate that data into my personal projections.  I then recalibrate based on the latest news trends (injuries or other) just before the draft and the tendencies of the owners in this particular league as well as my own hunches.  So I enter that draft with a "This Draft's Current Market Value" document, based on all the aforementioned factors.  I use that as a guide for this one draft only because it only reflects the specifics of today with this group of owners, nothing more, nothing less.  Any draft move I make at the draft is PERCEIVED VALUE, nothing more, nothing less.  Judging the "value" of my draft that day is simply wishful thinking, based on nothing but "projections" and personal conjecture.

Using the hard line of only judging value by using actual results, FORCES you to focus on what matters, RESULTS.  Like GetThePoint just stated in the last post, taking a player X picks early and getting results, blows away getting "perceived value" by taking a guy X picks later who doesn't produce.  The goal is to say your team was most "valuable" at the end of the year because they yielded a championship.  Trusting my own opinions about players and team situations will always outweigh a "value" pick, even if it isn't always as sexy on draft day.

After the season is over and you can determine true value (players who greatly outperformed what round they were drafted -- like S. Moss, Bledsoe and Galloway last year), you can generally divide the "value players" into three groups: (1) young players who had an "unanticipated" break-out season, (2) experienced players who were drafted in later rounds and had very good seasons, and (3) backups who were given the opportunity to play because of injuries.

I prefer focusing on the 2nd category. Any young player that has shown potential (3rd-year WRs, etc.) will receive a fair amount of hype, and their high potential usually translates into higher ADP which destroys "value." And it's difficult to predict injuries -- and backups to older or more injury-prone players are generally drafted somewhat higher than other backups (I guess LJ was an exceptional case of this phenomenon last year).

If any experienced player has a mediocre or poor season, then their ADP will plummet the next season. Every season I screen for this type of player. Once I have a list of candidates, then I evaluate each one as thoroughly as I can to determine the reason for the poor production last year (whether temporary or more serious) and try to make an assessment of their prospects for the coming season.

The benefit of this strategy is that most of these candidates will go in late-middle or later rounds. One thing I focus on is proven past performance. I've tracked the results of this strategy over several years. I've been pleased with the percentage of the good candidates (determined by this analysis) who have either solid or very good seasons.

And I would consider all of them to be "value players" because they are drafted lower than their potential performance. Although not every one is a successful draft pick (like S. Moss, Galloway and Bledsoe), a surprising percentage turn out to be at the end of the season -- if you do effective screening of the potential candidates.

you just went from emphasizing results in your post right into believing your projections which are higher than results, noting players that you feel underperformed the year before. How do you decide that they didn't play exactly up to their potential and won't repeat the following year's performance? IE you(suppose) see a WR got 45 catches and 600 yards in 2005. What makes you certain that he'll improve and not stay the same?

 

[Tiger Fan]

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

somewhat repeat reply cuz I'm curious what your response will be.ADP is the average of other drafts not yours. How do you tell the value in your specific draft?

Assuming you are using ADP that has been determined with your same scoring system this is the most efficient way to determine a market value before your actual draft.If there is a better way, please enlighten.

we're nitpicking here thoughADP before the draft? who cares. You just care who you get on draftday.

Market value comment I don't get because the market is your draft without it....

scuze the nitpicking, maybe it's essential for us to get it out of the way to continue the debate. I do think this could be a worthwhile debate

Ummm, b/c ADP is a good indicator of where people will be drafted. Obviously the true market value is your actual draft, but I don't think anyone has come out with the time travel machine to make it possible to know the outcome of your draft before it actually occurs.

OK but what about this, I'll try and give ya a "in the now" sorta question-you're in a draft:24 RBs went to open the draft, ADP "said" 3 WRs and a QB would have gone by now.

Which has more value to you? the 25th RB, the 3 WRs, or the QB?

Suppose 5 TEs go in round 6 and you're up- a WR that "should have" gone in round 4 is there too. What's ore valuable to you the next TE or WR?

How do you decide that value?(let's say you pick 1st)

1st above-24 RBs went in the first 24 picks so mathematically is it likely 47 will go before ya pick again OR more likely none will? Is there a mathematical formula you follow with probability? Or is it all gut?

If you go WR or QB, do you have to plan(tentatively) when you'll take your next RB right away because 24 went so quick? How do you do that?

TE's too(same with any run I guess) If you don't take a TE and "follow the pack" do you have to plan when you will? How so?

I clearly state above on how I would quantify that value. Please re-read and let me know if you need clarification.

 

[Bri]

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

somewhat repeat reply cuz I'm curious what your response will be.ADP is the average of other drafts not yours. How do you tell the value in your specific draft?

Assuming you are using ADP that has been determined with your same scoring system this is the most efficient way to determine a market value before your actual draft.If there is a better way, please enlighten.

we're nitpicking here thoughADP before the draft? who cares. You just care who you get on draftday.

Market value comment I don't get because the market is your draft without it....

scuze the nitpicking, maybe it's essential for us to get it out of the way to continue the debate. I do think this could be a worthwhile debate

Ummm, b/c ADP is a good indicator of where people will be drafted. Obviously the true market value is your actual draft, but I don't think anyone has come out with the time travel machine to make it possible to know the outcome of your draft before it actually occurs.

OK but what about this, I'll try and give ya a "in the now" sorta question-you're in a draft:24 RBs went to open the draft, ADP "said" 3 WRs and a QB would have gone by now.

Which has more value to you? the 25th RB, the 3 WRs, or the QB?

Suppose 5 TEs go in round 6 and you're up- a WR that "should have" gone in round 4 is there too. What's ore valuable to you the next TE or WR?

How do you decide that value?(let's say you pick 1st)

1st above-24 RBs went in the first 24 picks so mathematically is it likely 47 will go before ya pick again OR more likely none will? Is there a mathematical formula you follow with probability? Or is it all gut?

If you go WR or QB, do you have to plan(tentatively) when you'll take your next RB right away because 24 went so quick? How do you do that?

TE's too(same with any run I guess) If you don't take a TE and "follow the pack" do you have to plan when you will? How so?

I clearly state above on how I would quantify that value. Please re-read and let me know if you need clarification.

I assume you're referring to post #10, I thought a run might change your thinking a little but....guess not

 

[dickey moe]

Isn't it really the difference between perceived value (before the season starts) and realized value (once the season ends)? Actual value can't be determined until the season has ended.

 

[Bri]

Isn't it really the difference between perceived value (before the season starts) and realized value (once the season ends)? Actual value can't be determined until the season has ended.

but you have to determine value in order to draft, no?

 

[Tiger Fan]

Before the season starts: Value for me is when I draft a player at or near his ADP and I think he will far out-produce his ADP.

somewhat repeat reply cuz I'm curious what your response will be.ADP is the average of other drafts not yours. How do you tell the value in your specific draft?

Assuming you are using ADP that has been determined with your same scoring system this is the most efficient way to determine a market value before your actual draft.If there is a better way, please enlighten.

we're nitpicking here thoughADP before the draft? who cares. You just care who you get on draftday.

Market value comment I don't get because the market is your draft without it....

scuze the nitpicking, maybe it's essential for us to get it out of the way to continue the debate. I do think this could be a worthwhile debate

Ummm, b/c ADP is a good indicator of where people will be drafted. Obviously the true market value is your actual draft, but I don't think anyone has come out with the time travel machine to make it possible to know the outcome of your draft before it actually occurs.

OK but what about this, I'll try and give ya a "in the now" sorta question-you're in a draft:24 RBs went to open the draft, ADP "said" 3 WRs and a QB would have gone by now.

Which has more value to you? the 25th RB, the 3 WRs, or the QB?

Suppose 5 TEs go in round 6 and you're up- a WR that "should have" gone in round 4 is there too. What's ore valuable to you the next TE or WR?

How do you decide that value?(let's say you pick 1st)

1st above-24 RBs went in the first 24 picks so mathematically is it likely 47 will go before ya pick again OR more likely none will? Is there a mathematical formula you follow with probability? Or is it all gut?

If you go WR or QB, do you have to plan(tentatively) when you'll take your next RB right away because 24 went so quick? How do you do that?

TE's too(same with any run I guess) If you don't take a TE and "follow the pack" do you have to plan when you will? How so?

I clearly state above on how I would quantify that value. Please re-read and let me know if you need clarification.

I assume you're referring to post #10, I thought a run might change your thinking a little but....guess not

Sorry...guess I was a little jumpy to respond. Yes, there is a way to quantify this IMO during the actual draft. Winston Wolfe is working on this and has shown me his spreadsheet and I think it's a great start. I'll let him explain if he wants to.

 

[Winston Wolfe]

Bri,

If the draft starts with 24 straight RB, and I have the 3.01, what did I draft in the first two rounds. This has a huge bearing on answering your question.

 

[Illmatic]

Isn't it really the difference between perceived value (before the season starts) and realized value (once the season ends)? Actual value can't be determined until the season has ended.

I agree with ###### ###

 

[Family Matters]

There are some great posts on this. I did want to add to it by saying this:

Value is very subjective. The term's value is placed on or based on one's expectations and we know that varies widely between 2 or more people.

What I perceive as value another sees as a reach. The ability to exploit this is understanding your opponents definition of value. In local leagues or one's whereby you know the opponent then you have an opportunity to quantify what their value position on given players will likely be.

When participating in anonymous leagues, then you can only go by the ADP as a guide. Thus you may be forced to reach for a given player because either you know someone else has a similar value or you want to get him before his likely draft position based on his ADP.

Similarly, you might find yourself in a position to take advantage of value by being able to wait on a given player based on the same theory above.

The way to exploit any advantage is to know what your opponet knows. That knowledge is where you gain an advantage.

 

[Tiger Fan]

There are some great posts on this. I did want to add to it by saying this:

Value is very subjective. The term's value is placed on or based on one's expectations and we know that varies widely between 2 or more people.

What I perceive as value another sees as a reach. The ability to exploit this is understanding your opponents definition of value. In local leagues or one's whereby you know the opponent then you have an opportunity to quantify what their value position on given players will likely be.

When participating in anonymous leagues, then you can only go by the ADP as a guide. Thus you may be forced to reach for a given player because either you know someone else has a similar value or you want to get him before his likely draft position based on his ADP.

Similarly, you might find yourself in a position to take advantage of value by being able to wait on a given player based on the same theory above.

The way to exploit any advantage is to know what your opponet knows. That knowledge is where you gain an advantage.

I agree with this, however the increased number of leagues people are participating in online and without knowledge of opponents tendencies, I think ADP is the tool that you need to use to evaluate value.

 

[Winston Wolfe]

When participating in anonymous leagues, then you can only go by the ADP as a guide. Thus you may be forced to reach for a given player because either you know someone else has a similar value or you want to get him before his likely draft position based on his ADP.

Similarly, you might find yourself in a position to take advantage of value by being able to wait on a given player based on the same theory above.

The way to exploit any advantage is to know what your opponet knows. That knowledge is where you gain an advantage.

Drafting a player before their ADP can still equate value, if your valuation of said player outweighs what ADP says his value is. By the same token, taking a player EXACTLY at their ADP may not equate value to you.IMO, the key is to minimize taking players with a negative value. For this purpose value means your projected points vs. the ADP projected points. (ie your RB18 projects to 207 pts, but his ADP is as RB25 which AVT projects to 170pts)

 

[Bri]

Bri,

If the draft starts with 24 straight RB, and I have the 3.01, what did I draft in the first two rounds. This has a huge bearing on answering your question.

2 RBs

 

[Family Matters]

When participating in anonymous leagues, then you can only go by the ADP as a guide. Thus you may be forced to reach for a given player because either you know someone else has a similar value or you want to get him before his likely draft position based on his ADP.

Similarly, you might find yourself in a position to take advantage of value by being able to wait on a given player based on the same theory above.

The way to exploit any advantage is to know what your opponet knows. That knowledge is where you gain an advantage.

Drafting a player before their ADP can still equate value, if your valuation of said player outweighs what ADP says his value is. By the same token, taking a player EXACTLY at their ADP may not equate value to you.IMO, the key is to minimize taking players with a negative value. For this purpose value means your projected points vs. the ADP projected points. (ie your RB18 projects to 207 pts, but his ADP is as RB25 which AVT projects to 170pts)

True. You make a great point Ken.

 

[wannabee]

Bri,

If the draft starts with 24 straight RB, and I have the 3.01, what did I draft in the first two rounds.  This has a huge bearing on answering your question.

2 RBs

LOL! You, and the rest of the league drafted 2 RBs each.

 

[Family Matters]

There are some great posts on this. I did want to add to it by saying this:

Value is very subjective. The term's value is placed on or based on one's expectations and we know that varies widely between 2 or more people.

What I perceive as value another sees as a reach. The ability to exploit this is understanding your opponents definition of value. In local leagues or one's whereby you know the opponent then you have an opportunity to quantify what their value position on given players will likely be.

When participating in anonymous leagues, then you can only go by the ADP as a guide. Thus you may be forced to reach for a given player because either you know someone else has a similar value or you want to get him before his likely draft position based on his ADP.

Similarly, you might find yourself in a position to take advantage of value by being able to wait on a given player based on the same theory above.

The way to exploit any advantage is to know what your opponet knows. That knowledge is where you gain an advantage.

I agree with this, however the increased number of leagues people are participating in online and without knowledge of opponents tendencies, I think ADP is the tool that you need to use to evaluate value.

Agreed. I think we're saying the same thing.

 

[FUBAR]

Isn't it really the difference between perceived value (before the season starts) and realized value (once the season ends)? Actual value can't be determined until the season has ended.

but you have to determine value in order to draft, no?

I guess. Personally I just worry about getting the best player I can at each pick. Occasionally moving up to get a player I want that I doubt will fall to my next pick.If I get "value", great. Personally, I don't give a hoot if someone else thinks I got "value", I just want to win.

 

[Bri]

When participating in anonymous leagues, then you can only go by the ADP as a guide. Thus you may be forced to reach for a given player because either you know someone else has a similar value or you want to get him before his likely draft position based on his ADP.

**snip**

Similarly, you might find yourself in a position to take advantage of value by being able to wait on a given player based on the same theory above.

try checking what positions are "heavy" and what are not. What position a guy needs and what he doesn't. You can often narrow it down to a few guys you'd expect someone to take.I think I'm very good at this and try to control the flow of drafts as much as possible being just 1 of 12-14 drafters.

I have an extremely hard time wording this FM. If you ever want to try something, do an antsports mock and just play around. If you wind up with 5 RBs then 5 WRs so be it, you're just playing around. Try thinking "he's gonna take player X" then "if I take player Y he's gotta take player Z he has to go WR here" see how ya do at predicting. Also try starting a run just to start a run. WTF is the point? Just try, please. I'd bet you realize you're right far more often than you ever imagined. If ya do this, get back to me, I'd like to discuss how to apply that

 

[Bri]

Bri,

If the draft starts with 24 straight RB, and I have the 3.01, what did I draft in the first two rounds.  This has a huge bearing on answering your question.

2 RBs

LOL! You, and the rest of the league drafted 2 RBs each.

Wise ol Ken's just sleepy or too used to 14 team drafts

 

[Winston Wolfe]

Bri,

If the draft starts with 24 straight RB, and I have the 3.01, what did I draft in the first two rounds. This has a huge bearing on answering your question.

2 RBs

LOL! You, and the rest of the league drafted 2 RBs each.

Wise ol Ken's just sleepy or too used to 14 team drafts

Brain cramp, I clearly would have had the #1 overall.If the top 24 RBs according to ADP have gone, then I am grabbing my top WR. If the 24 RBs are not the top 24 and a player has slipped, then I would be inclined to grab a 3rd RB. I would seriously lean towards the WR, because there are RBs that I value that SHOULD still be available in the 4th and 5th. If those RBs are gobbled up early, then I will most likely pick up value at the WR spots since several RBs were grabbed early based on ADP.

Grabbing 2 top 10 WRs in the 3rd and 4th rounds would sit very well with me.

The key is that every draft is a live animal. You can go into it with a stable well thought out plan, but you need to be able to indentify good picks and NOT regularly grab players that you consider to be of negative value.

He is a point that I will try to make.

Chad Johnson is overvalued at 2.05 according to my rankings vs AVT. TJ Houshmandzadeh is undervalued at 5.12 according to the same parameters. At some point after 2.05 I will consider Chad Johnson to represent value probably after the start of the 3rd round, while Houshmandzadeh would start to represent value in th late 4th.

This analysis is based on ADP and my valuations, but at the same time, I need to be able to compare the actual results once the draft starts to materially deviate from ADP.

 

[Lobo237]

I'm going to be a bit of a value detractor here. Getting a player at a value if only good if you actually get that player...

Sometimes I find that if you spend too much time searching for value picks, you may actually miss out on some of the players you really want. Last year, Larry Johnson was almost universally deemed a good fifth round value pick, and a great value pick thereafter. However, someone in one of my leagues drafted him early fourth, and was criticized for doing so. However, we all know how that neded up...

My point: don't sacrifice players that you really want in the name of value. While getting good value for your picks is certainly a good thing, don't let it completely run your draft. If you have to overpay slightly for the players you want, I would do it if it meant you got those players. It's more important to pay attention to positional drop-offs than it is to strict value.

Just my experience of losing players I wanted because I thought they may fall to my next pick where I could get good "value" for them.

On draft day I believe value is getting the player you want at the latest possible slot you can. If that agrees with ADP fine, if not fine. I can think of two examples of my using this as a guide for a dynasty league draft last summer.

I had Rudi and Tiki ranked about equal on my board and both were available with my 2nd round pick. Being a dynasty league I obviously went with Rudi since he most likely wasn't going to make it back to my 3rd round pick and there was a chance Tiki would. It worked out perfectley for me since when the 3rd came Tiki was there waiting for me, thus I maximized my picks value getting both players I wanted.

Same draft I had decided if he was there I would take LJ in the 5th. I did so and did get some ribbing over taking an "NFL back-up running back" so early, but I also had two owners try to trade for him who told me they would've taken him with their 5th round picks if I hadn't. So again I maximized the value to me by getting a player I wanted as late as I possibly could.

I find this the simplest method. An owner who took Shaun Alexander 1.1 last year got great value. An owner who took Mike Anderson in round 10+ got great value. An owner who picked Gado off the waiver wire got great value. All these owners got great value for the same reason, they got their man as late as they possibly could and reaped the rewards of their performance.