Drafting from the 12th spot....strategy talk (1 Viewer)

[Wingnut]

I got the dreaded 12th pick this year...never drafted lower than 10th before.

Maybe thats why I just cant get into it this year. I havent done anything yet to prepare and my draft is in 3 weeks. Didnt subscribe to FBG for the first time in like 5 or 6 years. Time to put it in gear. Not looking for specific players anyone would be targeting, but more the draft strategy that others who are drafting 12th might be thinking about. Im in a TD heavy league, with 6pts for all TDs, including TD passes. Im not looking for advice on who to take, just trying to get a feel for what kind of strategy I might wanna look at going into this thing.

So, if you have pick 12 in a serpentine redraft, what strategy are you thinking about this year?

 

[DenverBroncos]

My 12th pick strategy is usually quite a bit differnet then my strategy for picks 1-11. I first look at who has been taken and then I take the best two available players left. Sometimes if I get crazy I'll take a RB and WR right there.

 

[Jayrod]

You will be able to pick up two backs that could both finish in the top 10, or grab a very good back and the best WR or QB.

Why is this a problem?

 

[GDogg]

Wow, you got some really nice responses.

If I were picking from the 12 slot, which I'm not, I'd go with the best two RB's on your board. If you go with a WR or QB here, you're pretty much going to have an extremely shaky RB2. This is not to say that your RB's won't bust even if you go with two RB's here, but 22 players are going to come off the board before you get to pick again. 22 players.

Just looking at ADP, if you pick whatever two RB's you like, then in 3rd you'd probably have your choice of these WR's: Javon Walker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lee Evans, Marques Colston, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Donald Driver or Plaxico Burress.

Those WR choices look a lot better to me than what projects to be left at RB for your 3rd Rd. pick: Deuce McAllister, Cadillac Williams, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber III, DeAngelo Williams, or Adrian Peterson.

After looking at this, it looks like a no-brainer to me. RB/RB, then WR/WR or RB, then BPA from then on.

 

[Josh the FunkDOC]

Travis Henry, Rudi, Bush, McGahee, Maroney...you should always be able to get two of those from that spot in a standard league.

I'm inclined to go WR/WR with your next two picks, although I personally like Jacobs and would grab him if he's there. YMMV!

There's a decent chance McNabb could slide to you at 5/6. There are some intriguing backup QBs with upside this year, so I think that's a risk well worth taking. You should definitely get your 3rd RB here if you didn't earlier, as well.

Not a bad draw for you - I'd much rather have 12th pick than a 6-7-8 where I'd have to decide between say Westbrook/FWP/Manning.

-Josh

 

[Brewzers]

Wow, you got some really nice responses.If I were picking from the 12 slot, which I'm not, I'd go with the best two RB's on your board. If you go with a WR or QB here, you're pretty much going to have an extremely shaky RB2. This is not to say that your RB's won't bust even if you go with two RB's here, but 22 players are going to come off the board before you get to pick again. 22 players.Just looking at ADP, if you pick whatever two RB's you like, then in 3rd you'd probably have your choice of these WR's: Javon Walker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lee Evans, Marques Colston, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Donald Driver or Plaxico Burress.Those WR choices look a lot better to me than what projects to be left at RB for your 3rd Rd. pick: Deuce McAllister, Cadillac Williams, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber III, DeAngelo Williams, or Adrian Peterson.After looking at this, it looks like a no-brainer to me. RB/RB, then WR/WR or RB, then BPA from then on.

I'm drafting from the 12 slot this year and the above response is exactly why I'm planning to go RB, RB, WR, WR, RB, WR/TE, QB, RB with my 1st 8 picks. Of couse someone could unexpectedly fall and change that, but that order tends to give me the strongest team in the few mocks I've done.

 

[SSOG]

I love the 12 spot this year. The third tier of RBs (the tier after LT/SJax/Gore and maybe LJ) is absolutely HUGE this year, and very tightly packed. At the 12 spot, you're getting TWO RBs who are very comparable to the guys going #5 and #6. If I don't have a top-3 pick, I'd want #12.

 

[Wingnut]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.

I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.

Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies.

for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Seems like as good a spot to me as any. Henry, Portis rounds 1 and 2 then Evans, Moss in rounds 3 and 4. Add in Romo and Gonzo in rounds 5 and 6 and you're good to go.

 

[corpcow]

I find the trick when drafting late in the first round is being flexible and letting the value come to you. I love having picks at the turn, personally, so you can target 2 guys at a shot (though it makes the wait for 2 full rounds excruciating at times!)

 

[fantasyplayer]

I agree that RB-RB is the way to go, although I like the 8 or 9 pick better than any other (excpet for 1 or 2) in a standard scoring redraft league. To me, there's a decent drop off after the Westbrook/Addai/Parker/Alexander tier and the next tier (R Johnson/Henry/Bush/Maroney/Portis).

 

[theToes]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies. for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

I also have the 12th pick in a league that scores similar to yours. According to VBD, Palmer is the 9th ranked player overall. I had the 12th pick last year and went rb, rb, wr, wr, te qbQb's tend to go a lot earlier in this league than in most. I have thought about taking Palmer but I worry about what that would do to my rb2 and wr1.

 

[brownhelmets]

I find the trick when drafting late in the first round is being flexible and letting the value come to you. I love having picks at the turn, personally, so you can target 2 guys at a shot (though it makes the wait for 2 full rounds excruciating at times!)

 

[ImTheScientist]

I love the 12 spot this year. The third tier of RBs (the tier after LT/SJax/Gore and maybe LJ) is absolutely HUGE this year, and very tightly packed. At the 12 spot, you're getting TWO RBs who are very comparable to the guys going #5 and #6. If I don't have a top-3 pick, I'd want #12.

Could not agree more!!

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Travis Henry/Peyton Manning becomes a possibility. pair them with a Houshmandzadeh/Colston/Evans/Driver at the 3-4 turn and then grab a guy like Marshawn Lynch or Cadillac Williams as your #2 back. Grab 3 WRs and another RB with your 5-6 and 7-8 turns. You're all set.

 

[Phurfur]

At 12 an 13 take the best available player.

 

[barndog]

Here are two example mocks I did from the 12th spot (AntSports)

The RB/RB then WR/WR style:

POS Player Name Team Pick Bye

QB Jon Kitna DET 6.01 6

QB Jay Cutler DEN 9.12 6

QB Trent Green MIA 16.01 9

RB Laurence Maroney NEP 1.12 10

RB Travis Henry DEN 2.01 6

RB LaMont Jordan OAK 7.12 5

RB Mike Bell DEN 11.12 6

RB Priest Holmes KCC 15.12 8

WR TJ Houshmandzadeh CIN 3.12 5

WR Donald Driver GBP 4.01 7

WR Santana Moss WAS 5.12 4

WR D.J. Hackett SEA 8.01 8

WR Reggie Williams JAC 14.01 4

TE L.J. Smith PHI 10.01 5

PK Stephen Gostkowski NEP 13.12 10

DT Miami Dolphins MIA 12.01 9

If you decide to go RB/WR RB/WR:

POS Player Name Team Pick Bye

QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 9.12 6

QB Chad Pennington NYJ 11.12 10

QB Trent Green MIA 16.01 9

RB Travis Henry DEN 1.12 6

RB DeAngelo Williams CAR 3.12 7

RB LaMont Jordan OAK 5.12 5

RB Lendale White TEN 10.01 4

RB Mike Bell DEN 13.12 6

WR Steve Smith CAR 2.01 7

WR Javon Walker DEN 4.01 6

WR Braylon Edwards CLE 6.01 7

WR Muhsin Muhammad CHI 12.01 9

WR Reggie Williams JAC 14.01 4

TE Kellen Winslow CLE 7.12 7

PK Stephen Gostkowski NEP 15.12 10

DT Chicago Bears CHI 8.01 9

I like the first option better.

 

[barndog]

Apart from the ideas expressed in the mocks above, one thing I'm considering is going for a QB or DEF a little earlier than I might otherwise. Getting BAL or CHI might make up a little for getting late-round RBs, if you don't hit on each one. And picking QB early enough to get Kitna, say, or even Bulger (5th?), might make that position a little easier to deal with over the season.

I wont sacrifice RB value to do this, but I if I can find value at WR in the 9th and 10th rds, that would justify using a 7th or 8th rd pick on a DEF, and a 6th or 7th rd pick on a QB.

I guess what this looks like to me is taking more of a fill the starters approach before building depth at WR. I've never thought that way before, and I wouldn't sacrifice RB depth as I said, but that's kind of how it works out.

 

[Brutis]

Wow, you got some really nice responses.If I were picking from the 12 slot, which I'm not, I'd go with the best two RB's on your board. If you go with a WR or QB here, you're pretty much going to have an extremely shaky RB2. This is not to say that your RB's won't bust even if you go with two RB's here, but 22 players are going to come off the board before you get to pick again. 22 players.Just looking at ADP, if you pick whatever two RB's you like, then in 3rd you'd probably have your choice of these WR's: Javon Walker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lee Evans, Marques Colston, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Donald Driver or Plaxico Burress.Those WR choices look a lot better to me than what projects to be left at RB for your 3rd Rd. pick: Deuce McAllister, Cadillac Williams, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber III, DeAngelo Williams, or Adrian Peterson.After looking at this, it looks like a no-brainer to me. RB/RB, then WR/WR or RB, then BPA from then on.

I recently picked 12th in a no ppr redraft league, your typical start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te, 1 k, 1 def, no flex.Ended up with the rudi johnson/maroney at the 1.12/2.1 picks then went with Lee Evans/Randy Moss at the 3.12/4.1 spots. Grabbed Mcnabb/Julius Jones at the 5.12/6.1 then tatum bell/morency at the 7.12/8.1 picks.All the decent WR#3's went right before me so i went with the bell/morency at that spot.Looking back I wish i had went RB/WR at the 1.12/2.1 picks because I thought I would've had some decent options at RB at the 3.12/4.1 spots.

 

[jurb26]

Just drew the 12 pick out of a hat for a redraft league I'm in. I'm actually liking the pick quite a bit. Looking over ADPs, these RBs will be available, so pick 2:

Rudi

Henry

McGahee

R. Brown

MJD

Edge

Portis

Then, at the 3/4 turn you have these WRs:

Housh

Walker

Moss

Colston

Driver

Evans

or if you like go with another RB for depth of this group:

Caddy

Lynch

McAllister

At 5/6 there is another slew of strong players IMO:

M. Barber

Calvin Johnson

S. Moss

Norwood

Kitna

J. Jones

If you really wanted to, you could just sure up the Dal RB situation at 5/6 and go with 2 RBs 1/2 and 2 WRs with 3/4.

 

[Chaka]

Apart from the ideas expressed in the mocks above, one thing I'm considering is going for a QB or DEF a little earlier than I might otherwise. Getting BAL or CHI might make up a little for getting late-round RBs, if you don't hit on each one. And picking QB early enough to get Kitna, say, or even Bulger (5th?), might make that position a little easier to deal with over the season. I wont sacrifice RB value to do this, but I if I can find value at WR in the 9th and 10th rds, that would justify using a 7th or 8th rd pick on a DEF, and a 6th or 7th rd pick on a QB. I guess what this looks like to me is taking more of a fill the starters approach before building depth at WR. I've never thought that way before, and I wouldn't sacrifice RB depth as I said, but that's kind of how it works out.

Don't forget New England.

 

[Wingnut]

Travis Henry/Peyton Manning becomes a possibility. pair them with a Houshmandzadeh/Colston/Evans/Driver at the 3-4 turn and then grab a guy like Marshawn Lynch or Cadillac Williams as your #2 back. Grab 3 WRs and another RB with your 5-6 and 7-8 turns. You're all set.

Position wise this is kinda what Im thinking. Peyton is gone pick 4. The guy that took him there last year won it all and he has the same pick. Hes already told me hes taking him there. Im thinking more Palmer/(Maroney or Henry), then depending on the WRs left at 3/4 turn, maybe even take 2 (we start 3wrs), and hoping to get lucky with 2 servicable RBs at 5/6. If I only really want one of those WRs at 3/4, Id go RB2 there.Im starting to warm up to this draft spot a *bit*. Id rather be in the top half but thats just me.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Travis Henry/Peyton Manning becomes a possibility. pair them with a Houshmandzadeh/Colston/Evans/Driver at the 3-4 turn and then grab a guy like Marshawn Lynch or Cadillac Williams as your #2 back. Grab 3 WRs and another RB with your 5-6 and 7-8 turns. You're all set.

Position wise this is kinda what Im thinking. Peyton is gone pick 4. The guy that took him there last year won it all and he has the same pick. Hes already told me hes taking him there. Im thinking more Palmer/(Maroney or Henry), then depending on the WRs left at 3/4 turn, maybe even take 2 (we start 3wrs), and hoping to get lucky with 2 servicable RBs at 5/6. If I only really want one of those WRs at 3/4, Id go RB2 there.Im starting to warm up to this draft spot a *bit*. Id rather be in the top half but thats just me.

I wouldn't take Palmer at the 1/2 turn. Take Henry and Maroney, then take Brady or Brees at the 3/4 turn, along with Houshmandzadeh, Evans, or Driver. Grab two more WRs at thr 5/6 turn and you're set.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

 

[LionsFan78]

I hear ya Wing. Just drew it myself. At first I was angry, but the more and more I think about it, once it got past 6-7, I'm happy that I got what I did. Makes a few decisions easier (I'm 95% sure I'll go RB-RB-WR-WR), and it allows for one hell of a 1-2 RB combo. Nothing wrong with 12.

 

[barndog]

Starting to consider the value of taking Brady at the 3/4 turn.

I checked my mock above and Brady was there and went 4.02. Had I done that, I probably would've been trading TJHoush or Driver for Cotchery or Clayton (ideally, Braylon E, but probably not--would have to slip 3 spots).

Compare

QB Jon Kitna DET 6.01 6

RB Laurence Maroney NEP 1.12 10

RB Travis Henry DEN 2.01 6

WR TJ Houshmandzadeh CIN 3.12 5

WR Donald Driver GBP 4.01 7

WR Santana Moss WAS 5.12 4

with

QB Tom Brady NEP 4.01

RB Laurence Maroney NEP 1.12 10

RB Travis Henry DEN 2.01 6

WR TJ Houshmandzadeh CIN 3.12 5

WR Santana Moss WAS 5.12 4

WR Mark Clayton BAL 6.01

Hmmmm. An added marginal benefit is the Maroney hook-up. Maybe this is the way to go.

Starting two WR, I'd probably opt for RB3 instead of WR3. F Taylor, Barber, and J Lewis were avail. Arg.

 

[Wingnut]

BUMP

Barndog I like team 2 alot better.

 

[GDogg]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies. for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

 

[barndog]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies. for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

I don't disagree, but you'd probably concur that Palmer has a better chance of finishing #1 than Kitna.I'm looking QB in rds 4-6 from this slot, and I'd probably only take Brady or Brees in the 4th. Probably think about McNabb and Kitna at the 5/6 turn.I still think the strategy with the 12th spot is to get good RB depth *and* some likely top 5 picks at QB and DEF, which is a big switch for me. Slough on WR and hope to hit some home runs or pick up breakouts on the wire.

 

[buckyben]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies. for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

Yes, playing in a league like this myself, the extra 2 points does make a huge difference. If you project Palmer for 33 and a second teir guy for 23, that ends up being a 60 point difference just on TDs, not to mention yards, plus the 10 less turnovers that Palmer will have than Kitna. You can pretty easily have a 60-80 point difference between a top 3 guy and a top 7-8 guy, which can be a huge advantage, especially if you can get a solid 1000 yard 5-6 TD RB later (J. Jones, F. Taylor, C. Williams, etc.).

 

[GDogg]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies. for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

Yes, playing in a league like this myself, the extra 2 points does make a huge difference. If you project Palmer for 33 and a second teir guy for 23, that ends up being a 60 point difference just on TDs, not to mention yards, plus the 10 less turnovers that Palmer will have than Kitna. You can pretty easily have a 60-80 point difference between a top 3 guy and a top 7-8 guy, which can be a huge advantage, especially if you can get a solid 1000 yard 5-6 TD RB later (J. Jones, F. Taylor, C. Williams, etc.).

We are talking about the difference between a 6 pt./TD league and a 4 pt./TD league. Wingnut stated that he was looking to grab Palmer (or a Top 3 QB) early because the league is 6 pt./TD's.So, the difference between the two leagues isn't actually a 60 pt. difference in your hypothetical, but a 20 pt. difference, which I don't think is enough. Besides, QB2 (usually Manning) doesn't throw 10 more TD passes than the 6th-7th QB does. Last season, in terms of passing TD's, QB2 was Palmer with 28 TD's. QB 6 and 7 were Bulger and Grossman with 24 and 23 TD's, respectively. In a 4 pt./TD league, Palmer, on TD points alone, outscored Bulger and Grossman by 16 and 20 points, respectively. If the league were a 6 pt./TD league, Palmer outscores Bulger and Grossman by 24 and 30 pts., respectively. In a 6 pt./TD league, that increases Palmer's value (in terms of TD's) by 8 pts. and 10 pts. over Bulger and Grossman, respectively.You'd adjust your strategy that much for 8 and 10 more points?And, just to show that this isn't an anomaly, look at 2005 in terms of TD's:QB2 (Manning): 28 TD's.QB6 (E. Manning): 24 TD's.QB7 (Delhomme): 24 TD's.In a 6 pt./TD league, Manning outscores Manning and Delhomme in this format by 8 more total points (.5 ppg) than he would have in a 4 pt./TD league.Here's 2004 (the year of the anomaly):QB2 (Culpepper): 39 TD's.QB6 (Brady): 28 TD's.QB7 (Plummer): 27 TD's.In a 6 pt./TD league, Culpepper outscores Brady by 22 points more (1.38 ppg more) and Plummer by 24 points more (1.5 ppg more) than he would have in a 4 pt./TD league.2003:QB2 (Manning): 29 TD's.QB6 (Culpepper): 25 TD's.QB7-9 (McNair, Green, Brooks): 24 TD's.In a 6 pt./TD league, Manning outscores Culpepper by 8 points more (.38 ppg more) and QBs 7-9 by 10 points more (.63 ppg more) than he would have in a 4 pt./TD league.Out of the last four seasons, QB2 threw less than 30 TD's three times. During that time frame, QB's 6-7 threw, on average, 4-5 fewer TD passes. There is absolutely no reason to change your strategy in a 6 pt./TD league vs. a 4 pt./TD league unless you are Nostradamus, and you know that QB's 1 and 2 are going to set NFL records for passing in a season (2004).

 

[PatsFanCT]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies. for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

Yes, playing in a league like this myself, the extra 2 points does make a huge difference. If you project Palmer for 33 and a second teir guy for 23, that ends up being a 60 point difference just on TDs, not to mention yards, plus the 10 less turnovers that Palmer will have than Kitna. You can pretty easily have a 60-80 point difference between a top 3 guy and a top 7-8 guy, which can be a huge advantage, especially if you can get a solid 1000 yard 5-6 TD RB later (J. Jones, F. Taylor, C. Williams, etc.).

In your scenario, 60-80 point difference comes out to 3-5pts a game more. Henry, Maroney, or another 2nd tier RB should be able to make up that difference. I'd rather take my chances with a 2nd tier RB and a 6th round QB.

 

[PumpusX]

Wow, you got some really nice responses.

If I were picking from the 12 slot, which I'm not, I'd go with the best two RB's on your board. If you go with a WR or QB here, you're pretty much going to have an extremely shaky RB2. This is not to say that your RB's won't bust even if you go with two RB's here, but 22 players are going to come off the board before you get to pick again. 22 players.

Just looking at ADP, if you pick whatever two RB's you like, then in 3rd you'd probably have your choice of these WR's: Javon Walker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lee Evans, Marques Colston, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Donald Driver or Plaxico Burress.

Those WR choices look a lot better to me than what projects to be left at RB for your 3rd Rd. pick: Deuce McAllister, Cadillac Williams, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber III, DeAngelo Williams, or Adrian Peterson.

After looking at this, it looks like a no-brainer to me. RB/RB, then WR/WR or RB, then BPA from then on.

:( I'm drafting from the 12 slot this year and the above response is exactly why I'm planning to go RB, RB, WR, WR, RB, WR/TE, QB, RB with my 1st 8 picks. Of couse someone could unexpectedly fall and change that, but that order tends to give me the strongest team in the few mocks I've done.

I just find it unreasonable to expect two or even one (outside Driver or Burress) of the aforementioned WR to be available at the 3/4 turn. In my opinion, if you go RB-RB in the 1st/2nd, you are likely to be stuck with Rudi/MJD/Portis/McGahee/Maroney types, who are a step below the RBs drafted before them. Using this strategy, you are drafting at the bottom of a WR tier at the next turn, and at the bottom of a QB/TE/RB3 tier after that. I think this slot requires some daring and a good understanding of your scoring, as well as the importance of value relative to other starters at any given positions. I think a roll of the dice at RB in the later (3rd and beyond) rounds could land you surprise upside (Gore, LJ, Barber, etc in previous years) while securing you 1st/2nd rd. WRs or a QB (Manning) in in tiers of their own.

I just don't get excited about fielding a potential team of McGahee/Portis/Driver/Burress/Kitna/Crumpler going the standard RB-RB-WR-WR-etc. route from the 12th slot.

 

[freeannyong]

GDogg,

It is really hard to say if Palmer is a good pick there or not based on the scoring system. In my league QB's also tend to go early due to 6 points per touchdown and the average in scoring over the last 5 years is:

QB 1 - 625

QB 2 - 590

QB 3 - 552

QB 4 - 524

QB 5 - 497

So if you have Palmer at 2 and Kitna at 5 that is a 100 point difference which is pretty significant. It really just depends on how his league scores everything

 

[Wingnut]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies. :( for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1.

Top gunslingers ala Manning, Palmer, Brees in '06, etc are always an advantage in this league. Like someone else, maybe the post above mine posted, the difference is bigger than you might have thought. Historically in my league, guys with the top few QBs make the playoffs WAY more than not, regardless of how good the rest of their team is. 7 of the top 10 point scorers in my league were Qbs last year. I know thats not very balanced as far as scoring/positions go but its the way the scoring is and elite Qbs are at a premium.

 

[Wingnut]

I wanna add: Since my original post, I have reconsidered my strategy after looking at past draft info. The last 3 years, the number of Qbs taken by my 3rd/4th picks: 2004(3), 2005(4), 2006(3), so Im pretty sure I can get one of the top 5 I consider to be elite: Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, Bulger. I plan on going RB/RB. then most likely QB/WR to start my draft.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I drew the 11 slot in one of my drafts and I'm narrowing down my list to a couple RBs to take on the way back if they're still available. If not, I'll take Marvin Harrison, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, or Peyton Manning. Those guys are virtually bust proof, and the object of rounds 1 and 2 is to NOT BUST.

I have a theory that Marvin Harrison is the most underrated player in the history of FF. If you draft Marvin Harrison every year in the 2nd round, unless you completely whiff on the rest of your draft, I think you'll automatically make the playoffs.

 

[Sea Leopard of Death]

Wow, you got some really nice responses.

If I were picking from the 12 slot, which I'm not, I'd go with the best two RB's on your board. If you go with a WR or QB here, you're pretty much going to have an extremely shaky RB2. This is not to say that your RB's won't bust even if you go with two RB's here, but 22 players are going to come off the board before you get to pick again. 22 players.

Just looking at ADP, if you pick whatever two RB's you like, then in 3rd you'd probably have your choice of these WR's: Javon Walker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lee Evans, Marques Colston, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Donald Driver or Plaxico Burress.

Those WR choices look a lot better to me than what projects to be left at RB for your 3rd Rd. pick: Deuce McAllister, Cadillac Williams, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber III, DeAngelo Williams, or Adrian Peterson.

After looking at this, it looks like a no-brainer to me. RB/RB, then WR/WR or RB, then BPA from then on.

I'm drafting from the 12 slot this year and the above response is exactly why I'm planning to go RB, RB, WR, WR, RB, WR/TE, QB, RB with my 1st 8 picks. Of couse someone could unexpectedly fall and change that, but that order tends to give me the strongest team in the few mocks I've done.

I just find it unreasonable to expect two or even one (outside Driver or Burress) of the aforementioned WR to be available at the 3/4 turn. In my opinion, if you go RB-RB in the 1st/2nd, you are likely to be stuck with Rudi/MJD/Portis/McGahee/Maroney types, who are a step below the RBs drafted before them. Using this strategy, you are drafting at the bottom of a WR tier at the next turn, and at the bottom of a QB/TE/RB3 tier after that. I think this slot requires some daring and a good understanding of your scoring, as well as the importance of value relative to other starters at any given positions. I think a roll of the dice at RB in the later (3rd and beyond) rounds could land you surprise upside (Gore, LJ, Barber, etc in previous years) while securing you 1st/2nd rd. WRs or a QB (Manning) in in tiers of their own.

I just don't get excited about fielding a potential team of McGahee/Portis/Driver/Burress/Kitna/Crumpler going the standard RB-RB-WR-WR-etc. route from the 12th slot.

 

[Sea Leopard of Death]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.

I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.

Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies.

for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.

I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

Yes, playing in a league like this myself, the extra 2 points does make a huge difference. If you project Palmer for 33 and a second teir guy for 23, that ends up being a 60 point difference just on TDs, not to mention yards, plus the 10 less turnovers that Palmer will have than Kitna. You can pretty easily have a 60-80 point difference between a top 3 guy and a top 7-8 guy, which can be a huge advantage, especially if you can get a solid 1000 yard 5-6 TD RB later (J. Jones, F. Taylor, C. Williams, etc.).

We are talking about the difference between a 6 pt./TD league and a 4 pt./TD league. Wingnut stated that he was looking to grab Palmer (or a Top 3 QB) early because the league is 6 pt./TD's.So, the difference between the two leagues isn't actually a 60 pt. difference in your hypothetical, but a 20 pt. difference, which I don't think is enough.

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

 

[Wingnut]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.

I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.

Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies.

for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.

I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

Yes, playing in a league like this myself, the extra 2 points does make a huge difference. If you project Palmer for 33 and a second teir guy for 23, that ends up being a 60 point difference just on TDs, not to mention yards, plus the 10 less turnovers that Palmer will have than Kitna. You can pretty easily have a 60-80 point difference between a top 3 guy and a top 7-8 guy, which can be a huge advantage, especially if you can get a solid 1000 yard 5-6 TD RB later (J. Jones, F. Taylor, C. Williams, etc.).

We are talking about the difference between a 6 pt./TD league and a 4 pt./TD league. Wingnut stated that he was looking to grab Palmer (or a Top 3 QB) early because the league is 6 pt./TD's.So, the difference between the two leagues isn't actually a 60 pt. difference in your hypothetical, but a 20 pt. difference, which I don't think is enough.

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

GDogg, you have your math wrong. And actually the difference of 10 more TDs between the 2 scoring systems is even greater than 60 points. If Palmer throws 30tds @ 6pts per TD, thats 180 points. If Kitna throws 20 @ 4pts perTD, thats 80 points. 180pts vs 80pts. HUGE difference. So, yes, to me it is WAY worth getting one of the top QBs vs one of the lesser ones.

Although were probably not talking about 10 more TDs, were probably talking more like 5-7, but the point difference fluctuates as you raise the lower of the two numbers of TDs. The difference between 20 and 25 tds between the 2 scoring systems is still 40 points (20*6=120, and 25*4=80). The higher the low number, the greater the difference (lets raise the TD numbers to 25 and 30 tds. The difference is now 80 points, and so on).

 

[Sea Leopard of Death]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.

I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.

Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies.

for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.

I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

Yes, playing in a league like this myself, the extra 2 points does make a huge difference. If you project Palmer for 33 and a second teir guy for 23, that ends up being a 60 point difference just on TDs, not to mention yards, plus the 10 less turnovers that Palmer will have than Kitna. You can pretty easily have a 60-80 point difference between a top 3 guy and a top 7-8 guy, which can be a huge advantage, especially if you can get a solid 1000 yard 5-6 TD RB later (J. Jones, F. Taylor, C. Williams, etc.).

We are talking about the difference between a 6 pt./TD league and a 4 pt./TD league. Wingnut stated that he was looking to grab Palmer (or a Top 3 QB) early because the league is 6 pt./TD's.So, the difference between the two leagues isn't actually a 60 pt. difference in your hypothetical, but a 20 pt. difference, which I don't think is enough.

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

GDogg, you have your math wrong. And actually the difference of 10 more TDs between the 2 scoring systems is even greater than 60 points. If Palmer throws 30tds @ 6pts per TD, thats 180 points. If Kitna throws 20 @ 4pts perTD, thats 80 points. 180pts vs 80pts. HUGE difference. So, yes, to me it is WAY worth getting one of the top QBs vs one of the lesser ones.

Kitna also gets 6 point TD's, friend. The difference is 60. Nonetheless, the gap is significantly larger than GDogg was illustrating.

How's the beer?

 

[SSOG]

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

He's comparing 6-pt-per-TD leagues to 4-pt-per-TD leagues. If Palmer throws 10 TDs more than Kitna, then he outscores him by 40 points in 4-pt leagues and 60 points in 6-pt leagues. The difference between a 4-pt league and a 6-pt league, therefore, is the difference between 40 and 60, or 20 points.

 

[Sea Leopard of Death]

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

He's comparing 6-pt-per-TD leagues to 4-pt-per-TD leagues. If Palmer throws 10 TDs more than Kitna, then he outscores him by 40 points in 4-pt leagues and 60 points in 6-pt leagues. The difference between a 4-pt league and a 6-pt league, therefore, is the difference between 40 and 60, or 20 points.

Got it.

 

[GDogg]

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

He's comparing 6-pt-per-TD leagues to 4-pt-per-TD leagues. If Palmer throws 10 TDs more than Kitna, then he outscores him by 40 points in 4-pt leagues and 60 points in 6-pt leagues. The difference between a 4-pt league and a 6-pt league, therefore, is the difference between 40 and 60, or 20 points.

Exactly.I was pretty sure that I stated I was comparing the difference between 6pt TD leagues and 4 pt. TD leagues, but I apologize if I was not clear.In any case, you are only getting 20 more points in a 6 pt. TD league than you would have in a 4 pt. TD league if the QB you drafted early throws 10 more TD than the QB you could have drafted a few rounds later.My premise is that the additional 20 points (and, as I pointed out, this is actually a much higher estimate than the actual TD rankings have been over the last 4 years) is not nearly enough of a boost to switch your strategy to grabbing a QB in the 2nd/3rd.

 

[GDogg]

GDogg,It is really hard to say if Palmer is a good pick there or not based on the scoring system. In my league QB's also tend to go early due to 6 points per touchdown and the average in scoring over the last 5 years is:QB 1 - 625QB 2 - 590QB 3 - 552QB 4 - 524QB 5 - 497So if you have Palmer at 2 and Kitna at 5 that is a 100 point difference which is pretty significant. It really just depends on how his league scores everything

I must be explaining myself poorly. If you get really large differences in points between the top 2-3 QB's and the 6-7 QB's, then it's not because of the TD scoring. Most leagues are 4 pt./TD. On average over the last 4 seasons (excluding 2004), QB2 (in TD's) has gotten you 4-5 more TD passes than QB's 6 and 7. That means that QB2 is getting you 8-10 points more under the 6 pt./TD format than he would have under the 4 pt./TD format. This is calculated be taking the difference between 6 points and 4 points (the TD scoring systems in question), which is 2 points. Then, you multiply the two points by the additional TD's that are being scored (4-5 TD's), and you end up with 8-10 more points.

 

[GDogg]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.

I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.

Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies.

for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.

I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

Yes, playing in a league like this myself, the extra 2 points does make a huge difference. If you project Palmer for 33 and a second teir guy for 23, that ends up being a 60 point difference just on TDs, not to mention yards, plus the 10 less turnovers that Palmer will have than Kitna. You can pretty easily have a 60-80 point difference between a top 3 guy and a top 7-8 guy, which can be a huge advantage, especially if you can get a solid 1000 yard 5-6 TD RB later (J. Jones, F. Taylor, C. Williams, etc.).

We are talking about the difference between a 6 pt./TD league and a 4 pt./TD league. Wingnut stated that he was looking to grab Palmer (or a Top 3 QB) early because the league is 6 pt./TD's.So, the difference between the two leagues isn't actually a 60 pt. difference in your hypothetical, but a 20 pt. difference, which I don't think is enough.

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

GDogg, you have your math wrong. And actually the difference of 10 more TDs between the 2 scoring systems is even greater than 60 points. If Palmer throws 30tds @ 6pts per TD, thats 180 points. If Kitna throws 20 @ 4pts perTD, thats 80 points. 180pts vs 80pts. HUGE difference. So, yes, to me it is WAY worth getting one of the top QBs vs one of the lesser ones.

Although were probably not talking about 10 more TDs, were probably talking more like 5-7, but the point difference fluctuates as you raise the lower of the two numbers of TDs. The difference between 20 and 25 tds between the 2 scoring systems is still 40 points (20*6=120, and 25*4=80). The higher the low number, the greater the difference (lets raise the TD numbers to 25 and 30 tds. The difference is now 80 points, and so on).

This is all incorrect.Remember, under each scoring system both QB's are getting the same number of points. I'd wholeheartedly agree that if, in your league, Palmer is getting 6 pts. per TD and Kitna (and all other QB's) are getting 4 pts. per TD, then by all means, grab Palmer as early as possible. But, I doubt your league is like this.

Assuming the difference between the QB's is 5-7 TD's like in your second paragraph, then those 5-7 more TD's will net you 10-14 more points total in a 6 pt./TD league than they would have in a 4 pt./TD league. Just to show the math - 5-7 TD's * 6 points = 30-42 points; 5-7 TD's * 4 points = 20-28 points. The difference between the two scoring systems (6/TD and 4/TD), therefore, is the difference between 30-42 points (6/TD league) and 20-28 points (4/TD league) = 10-12 total points.

 

[Chaka]

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

He's comparing 6-pt-per-TD leagues to 4-pt-per-TD leagues. If Palmer throws 10 TDs more than Kitna, then he outscores him by 40 points in 4-pt leagues and 60 points in 6-pt leagues. The difference between a 4-pt league and a 6-pt league, therefore, is the difference between 40 and 60, or 20 points.

Got it.

Scoring passing TDs 4 or 6 points does not impact the value of QBs relative to the other positions and should not change your draft baord.

 

[Wingnut]

With TD passes being 6pts, Im thinking about going Palmer/RB with my 1st 2 picks. Ive never been a fan of drafting a QB early...but in this league if you have a top 3 QB, youre pretty much in the playoffs. Qbs tend to go early in this league anyway, so Palmer at the turn isnt that much of a reach. Then maybe follow it up with RB/WR at the next turn, giving me a top flight QB, hopefully a top 10ish RB1, a top 10 WR1 and then grab at least one RB the next couple of turns and hope to get a viable RB2, or a couple I could platoon.

I just dont see me picking up RBs in the 10-12 range when I could get some real firepower with a top flight QB. Yes, I understand alot of people think QBs are a bit deeper this years and I COULD wait to get one later, but that strategy has been known to backfire, and I kinda wanna try something new this year.

Usually by now I have a complete strategy ready to go. Im just starting my draft prep now so Im just looking for reasoning behind different strategies.

for the real responses, and :finger: to the post padders with no real input.

Why should 6 pts. for TD passes bump Palmer (or any QB, for that matter) up that far? It's pretty difficult to figure out who the Top 3 QB's will be each year. Manning will probably be one, but it's doubtful he'll actually finish #1. If you draft a QB that early, and he doesn't finish very highly ranked, then you've just put yourself in a bad position. If you get yourself two RB's, then draft a QB in the 4-6 Rounds, you can get yourself someone with as good a chance to finish Top 3 as Palmer and better RB's.

I don't really see why the analysis would change much if you are getting two more points per TD pass. Let's say Palmer's going to throw 34 TD's. You could take, say, Kitna and he throws 32. You just drafted a guy two rounds earlier because he got you 4 points more under this scoring, or, .25 ppg more. For a more extreme example, let's say that Palmer throws 34 TD's and the QB you could get in Rd. 4-6 throws 21. Under the 6 pt./TD scoring, that works out to 26 more points under this format than the 4/TD, or less than 2 ppg. Should your drafting strategy really change that much because of this?

Yes, playing in a league like this myself, the extra 2 points does make a huge difference. If you project Palmer for 33 and a second teir guy for 23, that ends up being a 60 point difference just on TDs, not to mention yards, plus the 10 less turnovers that Palmer will have than Kitna. You can pretty easily have a 60-80 point difference between a top 3 guy and a top 7-8 guy, which can be a huge advantage, especially if you can get a solid 1000 yard 5-6 TD RB later (J. Jones, F. Taylor, C. Williams, etc.).

We are talking about the difference between a 6 pt./TD league and a 4 pt./TD league. Wingnut stated that he was looking to grab Palmer (or a Top 3 QB) early because the league is 6 pt./TD's.So, the difference between the two leagues isn't actually a 60 pt. difference in your hypothetical, but a 20 pt. difference, which I don't think is enough.

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

GDogg, you have your math wrong. And actually the difference of 10 more TDs between the 2 scoring systems is even greater than 60 points. If Palmer throws 30tds @ 6pts per TD, thats 180 points. If Kitna throws 20 @ 4pts perTD, thats 80 points. 180pts vs 80pts. HUGE difference. So, yes, to me it is WAY worth getting one of the top QBs vs one of the lesser ones.

Although were probably not talking about 10 more TDs, were probably talking more like 5-7, but the point difference fluctuates as you raise the lower of the two numbers of TDs. The difference between 20 and 25 tds between the 2 scoring systems is still 40 points (20*6=120, and 25*4=80). The higher the low number, the greater the difference (lets raise the TD numbers to 25 and 30 tds. The difference is now 80 points, and so on).

This is all incorrect.Remember, under each scoring system both QB's are getting the same number of points. I'd wholeheartedly agree that if, in your league, Palmer is getting 6 pts. per TD and Kitna (and all other QB's) are getting 4 pts. per TD, then by all means, grab Palmer as early as possible. But, I doubt your league is like this.

Assuming the difference between the QB's is 5-7 TD's like in your second paragraph, then those 5-7 more TD's will net you 10-14 more points total in a 6 pt./TD league than they would have in a 4 pt./TD league. Just to show the math - 5-7 TD's * 6 points = 30-42 points; 5-7 TD's * 4 points = 20-28 points. The difference between the two scoring systems (6/TD and 4/TD), therefore, is the difference between 30-42 points (6/TD league) and 20-28 points (4/TD league) = 10-12 total points.

Yeah I know...I htought you were comparing 2 different scoring systems...i read it wrong. Plus I was pretty buzzed

 

[Wingnut]

Ok, so, all the qb talk aside, back on topic.

Im now content to wait till my 3rd/4th pick to most likely grab a QB. I doubt I'll wait any longer, as I want one of my top 5 ranked guys.

Im back to the belief that I pretty much have to take 2 RBs to start out.

 

[theToes]

Ok, so, all the qb talk aside, back on topic.Im now content to wait till my 3rd/4th pick to most likely grab a QB. I doubt I'll wait any longer, as I want one of my top 5 ranked guys. Im back to the belief that I pretty much have to take 2 RBs to start out.

Is this true if it's PPR. A top 3 receiver gets you 8 or so points a game more than a 7-10 RB. I have the 12th pick this year and had it last year as well. Last year I went RB, RB, WR, WR. I didn't make out too badly but this year I am giving some seriuos thought to going best RB avaiable and either Holt/Smith/CJ. I think this gives me the most flex for the 3/4 turn. I can go RB/WR or RB/QB.In a few mocks I've done I come up with MJD/HenryHoltHoushBulgerThis is not too bad of a start.