Drafting from the 5 hole... (1 Viewer)

[((Morpheus))]

So I find myself stuck with the #5 pick in tomorrow's draft. Normally, I love drafting from this position... but this year I feel severely handicapped.

Assuming LJ/LT2/Alexander/Portis go in the top 4, what are you guys looking at as far as draft strategy for the 5th pick? Obviously I am looking at Tiki/SJax/Edge but am unsure where do go from there. Any thoughts?

We start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K

6 pts for TD, 4 pts for TD pass, PPR, 2 pts for 25 yards passing, 2 pts for 10 yards rushing.

 

[GreedoShotFirst]

I the 5 hole

 

[MLBrandow]

If I'm drafting from 5, I probably take Barber. SJax has more risk with Bennett coming to down to steal carries away, and Edge will be a yard monster with no TDs.

Crazy people like me might take DD/CW/BW, but since I'm likely drafting against a bunch of guys who just look at ADP, one of them is liable to hit me in the 2nd round, so i'd be more willing to take Manning in the first.

Of course, being that Manning/Palmer isn't that far apart, you could gamble on CW and then grab Palmer in the 2nd.

That would be a reach pick for me, because outside of Barber, whom I don't like but know he'll be a stud again, I like the handful of guys around the turn over anyone else.

All said and done, I'd maybe grab CW and then shoot for a top WR or Manning/Palmer

 

[diesel7982]

Stuck? 5th is great to draft from this year, ESPECIALLY in a PPR.

Whats wrong with Tiki Barber? How far from his 2005 stats: 2400 yards, 50+ catches and 11TDs, do you expect him to fall?

 

[einstein2u]

this is simple.

tiki is your man.

 

[theToes]

I'm not so sure Portis is a lock to go #4 in a ppr league. I think you are going to have a choice of the 3 you mentioned plus Portis and Westbrook. 4 might be a little high to take westbrook but I think after the first 3 are taken you fall to the next tier.

Of the available I would take Portis or Barber. Whoever falls to 5.

 

[Blackjacks]

I'd think strongly about Rudi Johnson at the #5 spot. This guy is a model of consistenacy and has no changes going on with his team or offensive scheme. He also is in the prime of his career and gets goal line carries. I know Tiki will be the poopular pick here but I just can't see picking him with his age and his schedule. S-Jackson is also a intriguing pick but also a new offense and no history to really speak of. If Rudi does what he has does the last 2 years (and I see no reason why he wouldn't) you'll be happy you went witht he safe choice. Seriously this guy gets no love.

 

[Marc Levin]

I'm not so sure Portis is a lock to go #4 in a ppr league.

Or shouldn't be a lock.

Any one of SJax, Westie, Tiki, or Edge is extremely valuable in a PPR league - as, or almost as, valuable as Portis will be, unless you project over 15 TDs from Portis this year.

In a PPR, it is actually beneficial to NOT be in the top-3. The #4-#6 spots are actually the money spots b/c a WR in the second is a GREAT call in PPR leagues.

In non-PPR leagues, OTOH . . . .

 

[Marc Levin]

I'd think strongly about Rudi Johnson at the #5 spot. This guy is a model of consistenacy and has no changes going on with his team or offensive scheme. He also is in the prime of his career and gets goal line carries. I know Tiki will be the poopular pick here but I just can't see picking him with his age and his schedule. S-Jackson is also a intriguing pick but also a new offense and no history to really speak of. If Rudi does what he has does the last 2 years (and I see no reason why he wouldn't) you'll be happy you went witht he safe choice. Seriously this guy gets no love.

in a PPR, Rudi's value is diminished. I'd take Dom Davis over him in a PPR, even w/ the injury risk.Give a ton of backs an extra 40-60 points that Rudi won't get - that's like 6-10 extra TDs(!!!)

 

[theToes]

I'd think strongly about Rudi Johnson at the #5 spot. This guy is a model of consistenacy and has no changes going on with his team or offensive scheme. He also is in the prime of his career and gets goal line carries. I know Tiki will be the poopular pick here but I just can't see picking him with his age and his schedule. S-Jackson is also a intriguing pick but also a new offense and no history to really speak of. If Rudi does what he has does the last 2 years (and I see no reason why he wouldn't) you'll be happy you went witht he safe choice. Seriously this guy gets no love.

In a ppr league I don't think I could take Rudi at 5. I would go Barber, Portis Sjax, Westbrook and maybe even Jordan before Johnson.

 

[MLBrandow]

His question shows his scoring format, and it's not PPR.

Rudi would be a solid pick as well.

 

[Marc Levin]

His question shows his scoring format, and it's not PPR.

Rudi would be a solid pick as well.

If we are restricted to "his scoring" I am moving this to the ACF.

 

[Draftnik]

His question shows his scoring format, and it's not PPR.

uhhhhhhh......

 

[shredhead]

His question shows his scoring format, and it's not PPR.

Rudi would be a solid pick as well.

Does his PPR in the original posting mean something different than your PPR?

 

[diesel7982]

His question shows his scoring format, and it's not PPR.

Rudi would be a solid pick as well.

6 pts for TD, 4 pts for TD pass, PPR, 2 pts for 25 yards passing, 2 pts for 10 yards rushing.

 

[Winston Wolfe]

His question shows his scoring format, and it's not PPR.

Rudi would be a solid pick as well.

If we are restricted to "his scoring" I am moving this to the ACF.

Drafting from the 5 spot in a PPR league that has flex positions is a valid topic.I would treat this league similar to the WCOFF leages because you can start as many as 4 WR. Three out of your first four picks should still be RBs, your middle rounds should go heavy on high reception WRs. Lay off the QBs and tight ends until around the 9th/10th. This should leave you with 3 RBs/6-7 WRs which will work perfectly for handling your flex needs. WRs depth is king in PPR/flex leagues.

 

[Verbal Kint]

I'm drafting from the 6 spot :X , same league requirements/scoring except no PPR and all TDs are 6 pts.

I'm hoping Portis or Tiki fall to me, as I feel that there is huge dropoff after these 2, and Tiki is an age risk. (the guy drafting 4th is 50/50 to take Manning) If neither falls, I'll probably take Rudi, but it will feel like a reach to me.

I'm seriously thinking of going WR/WR in Rds 2-3 9maybe Moss & D-Jax)and then employing the RB handcuff theory to pick up either the Den or Indy RBs. in 4-5, and get Bledsoe in Rd 6 or later.

 

[Winston Wolfe]

I'm drafting from the 6 spot :X , same league requirements/scoring except no PPR and all TDs are 6 pts.

I'm hoping Portis or Tiki fall to me, as I feel that there is huge dropoff after these 2, and Tiki is an age risk. (the guy drafting 4th is 50/50 to take Manning) If neither falls, I'll probably take Rudi, but it will feel like a reach to me.

I'm seriously thinking of going WR/WR in Rds 2-3 9maybe Moss & D-Jax)and then employing the RB handcuff theory to pick up either the Den or Indy RBs. in 4-5, and get Bledsoe in Rd 6 or later.

There is approximatedly a 30 pt drop off between WR8 and WR15 which is the range you will be looking if you pass on WR with your 3rd round pick and use your 4th round pick.There is about a 40 pt drop between RB 20 and RB28. If you pass on a RB in the 3rd round.

Too much risk. Two of your top 3 need to be RBs unless you want to start slop at RB2.

 

[((Morpheus))]

Thanks for the input guys...

I'm still not high on Tiki this year, despite the league being PPR. I don't like his goaline touches being vultured, and I think he's due for a dropoff. That being said, I'll definitely nab Tiki/Portis, and nab a stud WR unless I'm compelled to grab an RB2 in the second round. The idea of grabbing Palmer is intriguing, although I'm hesitant to draft anybody coming off of a catastrophic injury.

I definitely agree that two of my top 3 must be RBs, though, and am prepared to draft accordingly.

 

[Verbal Kint]

I'm drafting from the 6 spot :X , same league requirements/scoring except no PPR and all TDs are 6 pts.

I'm hoping Portis or Tiki fall to me, as I feel that there is huge dropoff after these 2, and Tiki is an age risk. (the guy drafting 4th is 50/50 to take Manning) If neither falls, I'll probably take Rudi, but it will feel like a reach to me.

I'm seriously thinking of going WR/WR in Rds 2-3 9maybe Moss & D-Jax)and then employing the RB handcuff theory to pick up either the Den or Indy RBs. in 4-5, and get Bledsoe in Rd 6 or later.

There is approximatedly a 30 pt drop off between WR8 and WR15 which is the range you will be looking if you pass on WR with your 3rd round pick and use your 4th round pick.

There is about a 40 pt drop between RB 20 and RB28. If you pass on a RB in the 3rd round.

Too much risk. Two of your top 3 need to be RBs unless you want to start slop at RB2.

Yeah but that's because no one know who the starter will be in Indy or Den. if I can lock up the Indy or DEN RBs in the 4th and 5th round, on the whole they will be a great RB2. Check out the handcuffing thread. If Addai or Rhodes were a lock for the starting gig, he'd be gone in the first 16 picks, easy, but if I can lock up both of them in rounds 4 & 5, I can afford to take WRs early.

 

[Winston Wolfe]

I'm drafting from the 6 spot :X , same league requirements/scoring except no PPR and all TDs are 6 pts.

I'm hoping Portis or Tiki fall to me, as I feel that there is huge dropoff after these 2, and Tiki is an age risk. (the guy drafting 4th is 50/50 to take Manning) If neither falls, I'll probably take Rudi, but it will feel like a reach to me.

I'm seriously thinking of going WR/WR in Rds 2-3 9maybe Moss & D-Jax)and then employing the RB handcuff theory to pick up either the Den or Indy RBs. in 4-5, and get Bledsoe in Rd 6 or later.

There is approximatedly a 30 pt drop off between WR8 and WR15 which is the range you will be looking if you pass on WR with your 3rd round pick and use your 4th round pick.

There is about a 40 pt drop between RB 20 and RB28. If you pass on a RB in the 3rd round.

Too much risk. Two of your top 3 need to be RBs unless you want to start slop at RB2.

Yeah but that's because no one know who the starter will be in Indy or Den. if I can lock up the Indy or DEN RBs in the 4th and 5th round, on the whole they will be a great RB2. Check out the handcuffing thread. If Addai or Rhodes were a lock for the starting gig, he'd be gone in the first 16 picks, easy, but if I can lock up both of them in rounds 4 & 5, I can afford to take WRs early.

That will work fine as long as ONE of them locks up the starting job. If it ends up as RBBC you have effectively wasted 2 picks on players that will severely under perform their draft position and still not have a true RB2.I've never been a fan of using an early pick as a handcuff. I personally would rather take Droughns, Dunn or Parker in the 3rd and get a two of Driver, Ward, Mason, Housh, Burress, Moss in the 4th or 5th.

Everyone has their own level of risk adversity.

 

[wraith5]

I'm drafting from the 6 spot  :X , same league requirements/scoring except no PPR and all TDs are 6 pts.

I'm hoping Portis or Tiki fall to me, as I feel that there is huge dropoff after these 2, and Tiki is an age risk. (the guy drafting 4th is 50/50 to take Manning) If neither falls, I'll probably take Rudi, but it will feel like a reach to me.

I'm seriously thinking of going WR/WR in Rds 2-3 9maybe Moss & D-Jax)and then employing the RB handcuff theory to pick up either the Den or Indy RBs. in 4-5, and get Bledsoe in Rd 6 or later.

There is approximatedly a 30 pt drop off between WR8 and WR15 which is the range you will be looking if you pass on WR with your 3rd round pick and use your 4th round pick.

There is about a 40 pt drop between RB 20 and RB28. If you pass on a RB in the 3rd round.

Too much risk. Two of your top 3 need to be RBs unless you want to start slop at RB2.

Yeah but that's because no one know who the starter will be in Indy or Den. if I can lock up the Indy or DEN RBs in the 4th and 5th round, on the whole they will be a great RB2. Check out the handcuffing thread. If Addai or Rhodes were a lock for the starting gig, he'd be gone in the first 16 picks, easy, but if I can lock up both of them in rounds 4 & 5, I can afford to take WRs early.

That will work fine as long as ONE of them locks up the starting job. If it ends up as RBBC you have effectively wasted 2 picks on players that will severely under perform their draft position and still not have a true RB2.I've never been a fan of using an early pick as a handcuff. I personally would rather take Droughns, Dunn or Parker in the 3rd and get a two of Driver, Ward, Mason, Housh, Burress, Moss in the 4th or 5th.

Everyone has their own level of risk adversity.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

There are no locks at #4...

If you're looking at the RBs (and assuming Manning will go later), I'd rank em this way:

Tier One: LJohnson/LT2/Alexander

Tier Two: TBarber/CPortis/Jordan/James

Tier Three: SJackson/RJohnson/RBrown

I really wonder if Rudi Johnson's value drops a few notches if C-Palmer can't go the first few games. Teams will put 8 in the box and dare the Bungles Anthony Wright to beat them.

 

[Reagan]

There are no locks at #4...

If you're looking at the RBs (and assuming Manning will go later), I'd rank em this way:

Tier One: LJohnson/LT2/Alexander

Tier Two: TBarber/CPortis/Jordan/James

Tier Three: SJackson/RJohnson/RBrown

I really wonder if Rudi Johnson's value drops a few notches if C-Palmer can't go the first few games. Teams will put 8 in the box and dare the Bungles Anthony Wright to beat them.

Where would you rate Caddy in that mix? Tier 4? To me, he's right there with SJax and Rudi and probably ahead of Brown. Just curious.

 

[bostonfred]

Jackson is fourth on my board. He catches the ball well, he can grind it out at the end of games, he's got a much better offensive line than people realize (and we'll see it now that Martz's system is out of there) and I don't think Bennett is an issue at all.

 

[SSOG]

So I find myself stuck with the #5 pick in tomorrow's draft. Normally, I love drafting from this position... but this year I feel severely handicapped.

Assuming LJ/LT2/Alexander/Portis go in the top 4, what are you guys looking at as far as draft strategy for the 5th pick? Obviously I am looking at Tiki/SJax/Edge but am unsure where do go from there. Any thoughts?

We start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K

6 pts for TD, 4 pts for TD pass, PPR, 2 pts for 25 yards passing, 2 pts for 10 yards rushing.

What's the question then? The big knock on Tiki is the lack of TDs. In yardage heavy leagues like this one, Barber is an absolute BEAST. Over the last 4 years, he's gotten 1983 yards, 1677 yards, 2096 yards, and 2390 yards. Between the PPR and the emphasis on yardage, Tiki is an UBERstud. In fact, I'd have to run the numbers and everything, but I wouldn't be surprised if Barber actually ranked ahead of Shaun Alexander according to my projections in this scoring system.

 

[nygiants56]

I'd think strongly about Rudi Johnson at the #5 spot. This guy is a model of consistenacy and has no changes going on with his team or offensive scheme. He also is in the prime of his career and gets goal line carries. I know Tiki will be the poopular pick here but I just can't see picking him with his age and his schedule. S-Jackson is also a intriguing pick but also a new offense and no history to really speak of. If Rudi does what he has does the last 2 years (and I see no reason why he wouldn't) you'll be happy you went witht he safe choice. Seriously this guy gets no love.

plus, they'll lean on Rudi extensively in the early part of the season, while they try to limit the chances that Palmer gets sacked and reinjures his leg..i.e., less passing , more rushing early on in the season for the Bengals.

 

[Verbal Kint]

I'm drafting from the 6 spot :X , same league requirements/scoring except no PPR and all TDs are 6 pts.

I'm hoping Portis or Tiki fall to me, as I feel that there is huge dropoff after these 2, and Tiki is an age risk. (the guy drafting 4th is 50/50 to take Manning) If neither falls, I'll probably take Rudi, but it will feel like a reach to me.

I'm seriously thinking of going WR/WR in Rds 2-3 9maybe Moss & D-Jax)and then employing the RB handcuff theory to pick up either the Den or Indy RBs. in 4-5, and get Bledsoe in Rd 6 or later.

There is approximatedly a 30 pt drop off between WR8 and WR15 which is the range you will be looking if you pass on WR with your 3rd round pick and use your 4th round pick.

There is about a 40 pt drop between RB 20 and RB28. If you pass on a RB in the 3rd round.

Too much risk. Two of your top 3 need to be RBs unless you want to start slop at RB2.

Yeah but that's because no one know who the starter will be in Indy or Den. if I can lock up the Indy or DEN RBs in the 4th and 5th round, on the whole they will be a great RB2. Check out the handcuffing thread. If Addai or Rhodes were a lock for the starting gig, he'd be gone in the first 16 picks, easy, but if I can lock up both of them in rounds 4 & 5, I can afford to take WRs early.

That will work fine as long as ONE of them locks up the starting job. If it ends up as RBBC you have effectively wasted 2 picks on players that will severely under perform their draft position and still not have a true RB2.I've never been a fan of using an early pick as a handcuff. I personally would rather take Droughns, Dunn or Parker in the 3rd and get a two of Driver, Ward, Mason, Housh, Burress, Moss in the 4th or 5th.

Everyone has their own level of risk adversity.

That is the risk of that strategy, as has been discussed in the thread, but I don't believe that Indy have RBBC. And I had Anderson & Bell last year. Bell actually was a good fit in the flex position.

 

[((Morpheus))]

My draft starts in about an hour...

It seems that the consensus is that this is pretty straightforward and Tiki is my man...

Thanks guys

 

[Marc Levin]

Jackson is fourth on my board. He catches the ball well, he can grind it out at the end of games, he's got a much better offensive line than people realize (and we'll see it now that Martz's system is out of there) and I don't think Bennett is an issue at all.

but a tough end of the year:Chi @Oak Was @Min

Oak is not bad, but it's in oak. Chi and Was as the last two home games is rough.

I like SJax, too - but Portis is my #4. i am expecting a 1500 rush yard, 10-12 TD season and I see a 16-1800 rush yard/15+ Td season as his upside. I dont think it is *as* likely that SJax is gonna get 1800 total yards and 15+ total TDs. he could, but I think Portis ismore likely to do it.

 

[CA_7]

Grabbed Portis at the 5 spot of a WCOFF Satellite. End up with a nice starting lineup:

Hass

Portis

McGahee

Dillon (and Maroney)

DJax

Reggie Brown

McCardell

Shockey

Not a fan of my WRs but have sleepers on the bench.

 

[Marc Levin]

Grabbed Portis at the 5 spot of a WCOFF Satellite. End up with a nice starting lineup:

Hass

Portis

McGahee

Dillon (and Maroney)

DJax

Reggie Brown

McCardell

Shockey

Not a fan of my WRs but have sleepers on the bench.

how did a WCOFF draft allow you to amass those RBs and still be able to pull a top-10 WR plus a top-10 QB????How did McGahee last until the 2.07 ??????

 

[ookook]

I have seen McGahee last until about then in some drafts.

The run on the top WRs sometimes starts too eary in the 2nd (e.g., after Westbrook) and folks ignore the 2nd RB because they all have "questions". And Manning sometimes goes before him too.

As has been discussed, there is hte perception that this year there are a lot of mediocre RBs so one will be there in the 3rd.

IMHO, although I really do not like anything about the BUF offense this year, I would take Willis before the "2nd round stud WR run".

 

[Marc Levin]

I have seen McGahee last until about then in some drafts.

The run on the top WRs sometimes starts too eary in the 2nd (e.g., after Westbrook) and folks ignore the 2nd RB because they all have "questions". And Manning sometimes goes before him too.

As has been discussed, there is hte perception that this year there are a lot of mediocre RBs so one will be there in the 3rd.

IMHO, although I really do not like anything about the BUF offense this year, I would take Willis before the "2nd round stud WR run".

unless something weird happens, he won't last past the 1/2 turn in most of the drafts I will be involved in.i guess folks are scared off of him in PPR leagues - esp, in start-3 WRs leagues - I don't think I am in any of those this year except survivor leagues.

 

[diesel7982]

Grabbed Portis at the 5 spot of a WCOFF Satellite.  End up with a nice starting lineup:

Hass

Portis

McGahee

Dillon (and Maroney)

DJax

Reggie Brown

McCardell

Shockey

Not a fan of my WRs but have sleepers on the bench.

how did a WCOFF draft allow you to amass those RBs and still be able to pull a top-10 WR plus a top-10 QB????How did McGahee last until the 2.07 ??????

Better question would be why didnt he let McGahee keep on falling?

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

There are no locks at #4...

If you're looking at the RBs (and assuming Manning will go later), I'd rank em this way:

Tier One: LJohnson/LT2/Alexander

Tier Two: TBarber/CPortis/Jordan/James

Tier Three: SJackson/RJohnson/RBrown

I really wonder if Rudi Johnson's value drops a few notches if C-Palmer can't go the first few games.  Teams will put 8 in the box and dare the Bungles Anthony Wright to beat them.

Where would you rate Caddy in that mix? Tier 4? To me, he's right there with SJax and Rudi and probably ahead of Brown. Just curious.

Brown has no legit competition for carries, whereas Caddy does. I also question Caddy's durability. He'd be right after Tier Three though, or push to be in the mix depending upon preseason/injuries, etc.

 

[CA_7]

Grabbed Portis at the 5 spot of a WCOFF Satellite.  End up with a nice starting lineup:

Hass

Portis

McGahee

Dillon (and Maroney)

DJax

Reggie Brown

McCardell

Shockey

Not a fan of my WRs but have sleepers on the bench.

how did a WCOFF draft allow you to amass those RBs and still be able to pull a top-10 WR plus a top-10 QB????How did McGahee last until the 2.07 ??????

Best part is, I grabbed Hass in the 8th. I reached for Reggie Brown in the 6th after watching a ton of WR I liked get picked right before me.

 

[SSOG]

I'd think strongly about Rudi Johnson at the #5 spot. This guy is a model of consistenacy and has no changes going on with his team or offensive scheme. He also is in the prime of his career and gets goal line carries. I know Tiki will be the poopular pick here but I just can't see picking him with his age and his schedule. S-Jackson is also a intriguing pick but also a new offense and no history to really speak of. If Rudi does what he has does the last 2 years (and I see no reason why he wouldn't) you'll be happy you went witht he safe choice. Seriously this guy gets no love.

plus, they'll lean on Rudi extensively in the early part of the season, while they try to limit the chances that Palmer gets sacked and reinjures his leg..i.e., less passing , more rushing early on in the season for the Bengals.

The problem with Rudi Johnson is that he's terribly inconsistant. He finished 7th in fantasy points last season, right ahead of LaMont Jordan, Thomas Jones, and Mike Anderson. He scored under 10 points a whopping 8 times, SIGNIFICANTLY more than Jordan (3), Thomas Jones (5), or Mike Anderson (5). It stands to reason that the fewer points you scored, the more "bad weeks" you put up, but it's not until Reuben Droughns (RB14) that you find an RB with more bad weeks than Rudi Johnson.Since I'm running these numbers again, let me point out Mike Anderson one more time. Anderson (rb#10) had as many "bad games" as rb#9 or rb#12, and one FEWER "bad game" than rb#11. There is this whole perception that "you don't know who to start in Denver", or "you don't know who is getting carries from game to game", or that "Denver's RBs are inconsistant", and it's just not based in reality. Mike Anderson was every bit as consistant as every single RB that finished the season with a comparable score. Basically, he was just as consistant as you would expect rb#10 to be.