Drafting RBs late (1 Viewer)

[topman]

I am currently in a slow FPPC draft and unfortunately the way the draft has flowed I have already made 6 draft picks and have not chosen my first RB. I have drafted 3WRs, 2TEs and 1QB.

Most every draft over the years I have typically drafted 2 RBs within the first 3 rounds. I have heard and read the articles on upside down drafting but even then most would recommend having a RB by the end of the 6th round.

My next pick is the end of the 7th round and I believe I put myself in a position where I almost have to draft a RB. Even though the top 30+ will have been taken.

In a typical league where you have to start at least 2RBs when is the latest you have ever drafted your first RB? How did that year go?

 

[Freelove]

High-potential backups and plety of 'em.

 

[loose circuits]

Try to snag sankey/Cobb combo and then Sims/Martin combo

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

joe randle/Darren McFadden

 

[gianmarco]

I am currently in a slow FPPC draft and unfortunately the way the draft has flowed I have already made 6 draft picks and have not chosen my first RB. I have drafted 3WRs, 2TEs and 1QB.

Most every draft over the years I have typically drafted 2 RBs within the first 3 rounds. I have heard and read the articles on upside down drafting but even then most would recommend having a RB by the end of the 6th round.

My next pick is the end of the 7th round and I believe I put myself in a position where I almost have to draft a RB. Even though the top 30+ will have been taken.

In a typical league where you have to start at least 2RBs when is the latest you have ever drafted your first RB? How did that year go?

Why?

 

[Warpig]

Just draft BPA. It's taken me a while to learn to do that. I'd rather have a WR that has the potential to be a stud for 10 years over a RB that will be rotated out in 4 years or part of a RBBC after 1 year. RBs have such little value now a days since you can pick up guys late that are part of that committee and they can score comparable points to the "starter".

 

[bigmarc27]

High-potential backups and plety of 'em.

Yeah I'm a believer that RB is more opportunity than anything. If you make a roster, you've got the talent - now you just need the carries.

 

[ShamrockPride]

High-potential backups and plety of 'em.

Yeah I'm a believer that RB is more opportunity than anything. If you make a roster, you've got the talent - now you just need the carries.

Case in point: Zac Stacy

 

[bigmarc27]

High-potential backups and plety of 'em.

Yeah I'm a believer that RB is more opportunity than anything. If you make a roster, you've got the talent - now you just need the carries.

Case in point: Zac Stacy

Or Arian Foster, CJ Anderson, Jamal Charles, Alfred Morris, and on and on.

 

[topman]

I am currently in a slow FPPC draft and unfortunately the way the draft has flowed I have already made 6 draft picks and have not chosen my first RB. I have drafted 3WRs, 2TEs and 1QB.

Most every draft over the years I have typically drafted 2 RBs within the first 3 rounds. I have heard and read the articles on upside down drafting but even then most would recommend having a RB by the end of the 6th round.

My next pick is the end of the 7th round and I believe I put myself in a position where I almost have to draft a RB. Even though the top 30+ will have been taken.

In a typical league where you have to start at least 2RBs when is the latest you have ever drafted your first RB? How did that year go?

Why?

The why would be at this point I have my starters including flex players. My assumption is teams will start filling in back-up RBs before finishing up their starters. I believe I would want to fill in the best available RB before drafting players that will not ever start barring injury or bye week.

FPPC is a no trade league so stocking players to keep them off of other teams works to some degree at what degree do you do it at the detriment of not getting much at all at your starting position? There are still capable RBs out there and that is my plan as of now is to probably draft RBs 4 out of the next 5 rounds and play match ups unless one rises to the top.

 

[FF Ninja]

Try to snag sankey/Cobb combo and then Sims/Martin combo

This. If you miss Sims, just grab Rainey. Maybe try for Ivory/Stacy.

If you end up with all backups, get yourself DeAngelo Williams to buy yourself 3 weeks.

 

[barackdhouse]

Starks might get a bit of run if the Packers have some big leads to nurse, aside from his obvious value as a handcuff. Who are the 6 you've drafted so far?

 

[iamkoza]

i'm strongly contemplating blowing my redraft w/2 keepers league auction budget on basically graham at TE.... and 2 of the 3 Julio, Dez, and/or A Brown... I have Benjamin and CJ anderson cheaper keepers....

since most of my auction budget would be gone my plan would then be to basically draft 5 upside RB's at $5ish pricing and just hope one or two of them become competent. The last 2-3 years i've spent huge at RB and just gotten absolutely burned (spiller/martin 2013, ball in 2 leagues 2014). league is 0.5ppr so a WR10 scores more than RB10. I've never tried this avoid the high priced RB approach though

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I agree with those saying take BPA. To win a league, I do think you need a couple of top 20 RB's, but Justin Forsett, CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill, Matt Asiata and the like say you don't need to draft them early. A lot can be waiver wire luck with RB's.

 

[barackdhouse]

Is Vereen still available in the 7th? Randle? Doubtful on both but I've seen them there a couple times.

 

[MattFancy]

Is Vereen still available in the 7th? Randle? Doubtful on both but I've seen them there a couple times.

Vereen may be, but in the mocks I did this morning, Randle was usually gone in the 5th

 

[barackdhouse]

Is Vereen still available in the 7th? Randle? Doubtful on both but I've seen them there a couple times.

Vereen may be, but in the mocks I did this morning, Randle was usually gone in the 5th

Yeah, me too. Vereen as well. I've seen them both stick around until the 7th, though.

 

[barackdhouse]

I am currently in a slow FPPC draft and unfortunately the way the draft has flowed I have already made 6 draft picks and have not chosen my first RB. I have drafted 3WRs, 2TEs and 1QB.

Most every draft over the years I have typically drafted 2 RBs within the first 3 rounds. I have heard and read the articles on upside down drafting but even then most would recommend having a RB by the end of the 6th round.

My next pick is the end of the 7th round and I believe I put myself in a position where I almost have to draft a RB. Even though the top 30+ will have been taken.

In a typical league where you have to start at least 2RBs when is the latest you have ever drafted your first RB? How did that year go?

Hey, who are your 3 WRs, 2TEs and 1QB?

 

[Freelove]

There are still capable RBs out there and that is my plan as of now is to probably draft RBs 4 out of the next 5 rounds and play match ups unless one rises to the top.

Crazy Talk.You've already executed the first part of a strategy that (presumably) you expect tp give you a mathematical edge over the competition: you spent all your early round picks building an edge at all the non-RB positions.

Now you're going to follow up with "play the waiver wire" as your RB strategy? EVERYBODY gets to play that game. It's admission that your strategy was no strategy at all. You don't just have to spot the breakout for that to work... You have to be lucky enough to get your guy as well with a whole league working against you on the same waiver wire.

If you want to play WW luck, you don't do it with your positions of weakness, you do it as an emergency contingency in case something goes wrong with your positions of strength.

That frees you to use your pine -- plus the statistical probabilities we all see play out year to year -- to finish off your strategy by making RB a strength through sheer numbers.

Accept that with the high price of early round picks comes risk. You don't just hope those guys are dominant: you count on it. Back THOSE guys up minimally if at all, and accept that if you have to get lucky for those slots to produce, you've already lost.

Every clown in your league will have 4 or so RB's, and they're likely to be far higher value than yours. Accept that, and your early picks gave you no advantage.

Instead, fill out your roster with only minimal use of backups, and use virtually ALL your remaining picks on RB's. With the turnover inherent in that position, that doesn't just up your odds, it makes you a favorite to contend for a top RB stable, if you're good and stocked with high upside backups and not COP backs. That, plus your off-position studs should make you a favorite to win your league far more often than 1/12. It's like pushing all in with a huge draw: you may be well behind, but you're still the favorite.

Unless there are position caps in play, I advocate aiming for 8 or so, with a skeleton roster everywhere else. Don't worry about heading into training camp or week one knowing where your points are coming from. Play the numbers, let attrition do its thing, and trust your history. Get as many Kniles, Tres, and Deangelos as you can, and don't wait and hope to find them when it's too late. Work now to make THEN too late for evetyone else.

 

[gianmarco]

I am currently in a slow FPPC draft and unfortunately the way the draft has flowed I have already made 6 draft picks and have not chosen my first RB. I have drafted 3WRs, 2TEs and 1QB.

Most every draft over the years I have typically drafted 2 RBs within the first 3 rounds. I have heard and read the articles on upside down drafting but even then most would recommend having a RB by the end of the 6th round.

My next pick is the end of the 7th round and I believe I put myself in a position where I almost have to draft a RB. Even though the top 30+ will have been taken.

In a typical league where you have to start at least 2RBs when is the latest you have ever drafted your first RB? How did that year go?

Why?

The why would be at this point I have my starters including flex players. My assumption is teams will start filling in back-up RBs before finishing up their starters. I believe I would want to fill in the best available RB before drafting players that will not ever start barring injury or bye week.

FPPC is a no trade league so stocking players to keep them off of other teams works to some degree at what degree do you do it at the detriment of not getting much at all at your starting position? There are still capable RBs out there and that is my plan as of now is to probably draft RBs 4 out of the next 5 rounds and play match ups unless one rises to the top.

Why is it a no trade league? That changes a lot.

 

[ol blues]

Obviously it depends on who is still on the board. At 30 being gone typically your best choices for an eventual and, at least arguably, productive RB1 are Ameer Abdullah, Tre Mason, Chris Ivory, and, possibly, Rashad Jennings. The Tampa Bay and Titan backs touted elsewhere on this thread are likely still there too, but it's likely a stretch to believe either figures to be consistently productive much less startable in fantasy. Of the 4 I list my preference is

- Ameer: has warts (fumbles and pass pro) but has the clearest path to lead role in a quality offense if J. Bell is as limited as it appears.

-Jennings: the Vereen signing has blinded everyone to who the most rounded RB is on this team. It's Jennings and it's not close. I list him after Ameer only because of Jennings persistency in the trainer's room and the likelihood that Vereen usurps the 3rd down role.

-Mason: should be the lead back for at least weeks 1-6. Unfortunately, it's lead back in one of the NFL's worst offenses. Nonetheless, he was productive as the starter last season.

-Ivory: should be lead back from the start, but this has the look of a heavy RBBC.

Other RBs who may have more upside than their ADPs suggest: Ajayi (terrific prospect who has supposed long term injury concerns, but lands in a spot where he should get immediate touches; if he shines he will get more); Freeman (lead back for Shanahan has value and there's no certainty Coleman leads); Mathews (will get sufficient touches to be playable immediately and has huge value if Murray misses time which has occurred every year except 2014); Vereen (strong PPR value); Woodhead or Oliver (whoever wins 3rd down role should have value...most think Woodhead wins the role; I don't); Reggie Bush; your best guess at who really can last in Dallas; the "quality" handcuffs, including, Davis, Michael (or Turbin), Montee Ball, who you believe plays if Gore goes down, and the passing downs back in New England (White?). Good luck.

 

[topman]

I am currently in a slow FPPC draft and unfortunately the way the draft has flowed I have already made 6 draft picks and have not chosen my first RB. I have drafted 3WRs, 2TEs and 1QB.

Most every draft over the years I have typically drafted 2 RBs within the first 3 rounds. I have heard and read the articles on upside down drafting but even then most would recommend having a RB by the end of the 6th round.

My next pick is the end of the 7th round and I believe I put myself in a position where I almost have to draft a RB. Even though the top 30+ will have been taken.

In a typical league where you have to start at least 2RBs when is the latest you have ever drafted your first RB? How did that year go?

Hey, who are your 3 WRs, 2TEs and 1QB?

WRs are Demarius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Emanuel Sanders

TEs are Greg Olson, Matellius Bennette

QB Russell Wilson

This league is 1.5 PPR for TE so that was the thinking of the second top tight end before a lower RB2 for my first #1 RB.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I am currently in a slow FPPC draft and unfortunately the way the draft has flowed I have already made 6 draft picks and have not chosen my first RB. I have drafted 3WRs, 2TEs and 1QB.

Most every draft over the years I have typically drafted 2 RBs within the first 3 rounds. I have heard and read the articles on upside down drafting but even then most would recommend having a RB by the end of the 6th round.

My next pick is the end of the 7th round and I believe I put myself in a position where I almost have to draft a RB. Even though the top 30+ will have been taken.

In a typical league where you have to start at least 2RBs when is the latest you have ever drafted your first RB? How did that year go?

Hey, who are your 3 WRs, 2TEs and 1QB?

WRs are Demarius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Emanuel Sanders

TEs are Greg Olson, Matellius Bennette

QB Russell Wilson

This league is 1.5 PPR for TE so that was the thinking of the second top tight end before a lower RB2 for my first #1 RB.

Honestly, it looks like you simply had a brutal draft.

 

[ratbast]

I dont like the guys you chose but if i did i would certainly focus on RBs now. Build any handcuff combos you can assemble while then looking at RBBC backs that could carry the whole load if alone and are too good to vanish if that never happens.

Build from this list:. (Mike Clay ranking from PFFocus. Random Google search)

28. Devonta Freeman – ATL

29. Rashad Jennings – NYG
30. Branden Oliver – SD
31. Bishop Sankey – TEN
32. Shane Vereen – NYG
33. Doug Martin – TB
34. Charles Sims – TB
35. Roy Helu – OAK
36. Terrance West – CLV

37. Danny Woodhead – SD

38. Darren McFadden – DAL
39. Lorenzo Taliaferro – BLT
40. Joseph Randle – DAL
41. Ryan Mathews – PHI
42. Theo Riddick – DET
43. Denard Robinson – JAX
44. Fred Jackson – BUF
45. James White – NE
46. Reggie Bush – SF
47. Antone Smith – ATL

48. Dan Herron – IND

49. Jerick McKinnon – MIN
50. Andre Williams – NYG
51. Darren Sproles – PHI
52. DeAngelo Williams – PIT
53. Jonas Gray – NE
54. Knile Davis – KC
55. Bilal Powell – NYJ
56. Ronnie Hillman – DEN
57. Alfred Blue – HST
58. James Starks – GB
59. Benny Cunningham – SL
60. Christine Michael – SEA
61. Montee Ball – DEN
62. Khiry Robinson – NO
63. Stevan Ridley – NYJ
64. Ka’Deem Carey – CHI

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is the ADP from MFL drafts since May 15th PPR 118 drafts.

1. 1.01 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 4.47 1 17 118
2. 1.02 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB 10.46 1 32 118
3. 1.03 Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 15.65 1 45 118
4. 1.04 McCoy, LeSean BUF RB 21.21 5 47 118
5. 1.05 Hill, Jeremy CIN RB 23.75 10 39 118
6. 1.06 Murray, DeMarco PHI RB 24.33 1 48 118
7. 1.07 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 25.92 1 67 118
8. 1.08 Forte, Matt CHI RB 27.04 2 71 118
9. 1.09 Gurley, Todd STL RB 29.24 2 242 116
10. 1.10 Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 30.42 5 57 118
11. 1.11 Gordon, Melvin SDC RB 31.46 13 243 116
12. 1.12 Anderson, C.J. DEN RB 31.55 11 58 118
13. 2.01 Hyde, Carlos SFO RB 37.03 19 60 118
14. 2.02 Foster, Arian HOU RB 38.44 3 91 118
15. 2.03 Miller, Lamar MIA RB 48.98 25 76 118
16. 2.04 Ingram, Mark NOS RB 49.21 20 92 117
17. 2.05 Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB 52.05 25 252 115
18. 2.06 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 58.25 34 88 117
19. 2.07 Morris, Alfred WAS RB 58.83 27 100 116
20. 2.08 Murray, Latavius OAK RB 60.17 32 124 117
21. 2.09 Forsett, Justin BAL RB 62.94 22 198 116
22. 2.10 Ellington, Andre ARI RB 64.71 28 121 116
23. 2.11 Coleman, Tevin ATL RB 67.53 29 251 112
24. 2.12 Spiller, C.J. NOS RB 70.47 36 126 116
25. 3.01 Abdullah, Ameer DET RB 74.16 40 244 113
26. 3.02 Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 77.27 37 152 116
27. 3.03 Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB 79.08 53 119 114
28. 3.04 Gore, Frank IND RB 80.73 27 167 115
29. 3.05 Mason, Tre STL RB 96.62 47 178 112
30. 3.06 Ajayi, Jay MIA RB 97.15 50 256 110
31. 3.07 Bell, Joique DET RB 97.98 37 216 111
32. 3.08 Randle, Joseph DAL RB 99.88 34 284 114
33. 3.09 Vereen, Shane NYG RB 103.33 67 188 112
34. 3.10 Sims, Charles TBB RB 104.93 63 215 113
35. 3.11 Johnson, Duke CLE RB 105.75 64 253 110
36. 3.12 Johnson, David ARI RB 113.21 63 259 110
37. 4.01 McKinnon, Jerick MIN RB 116.22 35 189 107
38. 4.02 Martin, Doug TBB RB 117.94 62 238 111
39. 4.03 Sankey, Bishop TEN RB 118.01 55 200 111
40. 4.04 Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 120.29 76 201 110
41. 4.05 McFadden, Darren DAL RB 124.81 27 273 108
42. 4.06 Cobb, David TEN RB 125.79 84 263 110
43. 4.07 Davis, Knile KCC RB 128.35 73 195 110
44. 4.08 Mathews, Ryan PHI RB 132.80 78 223 110
45. 4.09 Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB 132.97 64 279 110
46. 4.10 Michael, Christine SEA RB 137.75 82 259 89
47. 4.11 Jennings, Rashad NYG RB 140.70 61 315 105
48. 4.12 Jones, Matt WAS RB 145.17 81 308 94
49. 5.01 Ball, Montee DEN RB 145.97 75 342 107
50. 5.02 Allen, Javorius BAL RB 149.03 82 300 91
51. 5.03 Williams, Andre NYG RB 162.70 87 367 98
52. 5.04 Ivory, Chris NYJ RB 167.81 62 341 105
53. 5.05 Davis, Mike SFO RB 170.04 103 285 75
54. 5.06 Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB 174.34 99 327 80
55. 5.07 Robinson, Josh IND RB 175.19 127 358 78
56. 5.08 West, Terrance CLE RB 175.47 100 454 85
57. 5.09 Langford, Jeremy CHI RB 179.81 106 359 69
58. 5.10 Bush, Reggie SFO RB 180.84 104 362 100
59. 5.11 Helu, Roy OAK RB 190.51 104 399 87
60. 5.12 Blue, Alfred HOU RB 192.07 127 429 88
61. 6.01 Riddick, Theo DET RB 193.05 96 328 81
62. 6.02 Sproles, Darren PHI RB 197.45 80 341 71
63. 6.03 Ridley, Stevan NYJ RB 197.57 106 356 84
64. 6.04 Woodhead, Danny SDC RB 197.80 97 408 83
65. 6.05 Robinson, Denard JAC RB 200.20 109 419 74
66. 6.06 Herron, Dan IND RB 207.86 102 517 72
67. 6.07 Williams, DeAngelo PIT RB 212.32 97 415 75
68. 6.08 Zenner, Zach DET RB 214.17 147 348 52
69. 6.09 Jackson, Fred BUF RB 214.82 91 435 60
70. 6.10 Richardson, Trent OAK RB 216.39 158 423 61
71. 6.11 White, James NEP RB 217.36 86 550 64
72. 6.12 Turbin, Robert SEA RB 223.73 140 418 60
73. 7.01 Oliver, Branden SDC RB 224.62 125 391 68
74. 7.02 Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB 226.71 130 451 56
75. 7.03 Robinson, Khiry NOS RB 227.21 151 499 62
76. 7.04 Williams, Karlos BUF RB 227.26 174 396 38
77. 7.05 Williams, Ryan DAL RB 231.71 148 465 49
78. 7.06 Taliaferro, Lorenzo BAL RB 231.98 151 420 60
79. 7.07 Carey, Ka'Deem CHI RB 237.56 141 398 52
80. 7.08 Gaffney, Tyler NEP RB 238.40 169 466 42
81. 7.09 Stacy, Zac NYJ RB 250.64 84 561 36
82. 7.10 Gray, Jonas NEP RB 256.11 117 388 38
83. 7.11 Rice, Ray FA* RB 257.87 169 565 30
84. 7.12 Starks, James GBP RB 262.03 161 449 36
85. 8.01 Polk, Chris HOU RB 263.86 191 505 29
86. 8.02 Brown, Malcolm STL RB 266.12 184 427 25
87. 8.03 Asiata, Matt MIN RB 266.52 130 520 23
88. 8.04 Smith, Dreamius SDC RB 273.50 248 311 6
89. 8.05 Moreno, Knowshon FA* RB 274.85 181 569 27
90. 8.06 Smith, Antone ATL RB 276.10 197 325 10
91. 8.07 Dunbar, Lance DAL RB 278.32 119 567 25
92. 8.08 Williams, Trey WAS RB 280.89 207 323 9
93. 8.09 Rawls, Thomas SEA RB 280.91 187 507 22
94. 8.10 Redd, Silas WAS RB 286.00 184 329 7
95. 8.11 Brown, Bryce BUF RB 288.08 188 570 24
96. 8.12 Cadet, Travaris NEP RB 289.21 185 482 29
97. 9.01 Cunningham, Benny STL RB 297.00 189 359 12
98. 9.02 Rainey, Bobby TBB RB 301.82 249 465 11
99. 9.03 Williams, Damien MIA RB 304.42 218 628 12
100. 9.04 Dyer, Michael OAK RB 304.84 218 536 19

 

[topman]

Although I have appreciated all the advise on my team. I was attempting to start a conversation on the latest people have drafted Runningbacks and how their season went when drafting late. Most people draft RBs early and often.

I assume I must have asked the question wrong.

 

[tdmills]

Although I have appreciated all the advise on my team. I was attempting to start a conversation on the latest people have drafted Runningbacks and how their season went when drafting late. Most people draft RBs early and often.

I assume I must have asked the question wrong.

Most people don't draft rbs early and often. In fact, the strategy of waiting on a rb is more common.

 

[topman]

ADP for PPR still shows 24 RBs taken before the end of first 4 rounds. Early and often!

 

[tdmills]

ADP for PPR still shows 24 RBs taken before the end of first 4 rounds. Early and often!

I'm talking dynasty startups, but only 13 RBs in the first 4 rounds.

 

[ol blues]

Although I have appreciated all the advise on my team. I was attempting to start a conversation on the latest people have drafted Runningbacks and how their season went when drafting late. Most people draft RBs early and often.

I assume I must have asked the question wrong.

7th round is a beyond "late." Productive RBs are available quite deep in drafts and the bust rate for RBs outstrip the bust rate at all other positions which leads many to pursue RBs later. But at round 7 you will find few, if any, with a track history. In a PPR must start 4 receivers league I have deferred RB selections from a late round draft position for 2 of the last 3 years with 3rd and 2nd place results. Last season I chose my first RB in the 4th and went RB heavy thereafter. I open the season with at least 6 RBs rostered and had 7 on that roster to start last year. 3 years ago I drafted only 1 RB in the first 4 rounds although I don't recall the round.

Elite WRs afford a huge positional advantage. That, the much lower elite WR bust rate, the high RB bust rate, and the availability of highly productive RBs later lead to deferring RB selection. But, by round 7, so much talent has been taken that your odds of landing productive players are long indeed.