Drafting RB's next year for FF is going to be a DEEP position (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

In a ppr redraft, this is how I currently have guys ranked. While many of you may disagree and differ where you have some of these players, I think most would agree that all of these guys have potential to do well and all of them make decent #2 RB's. This is not even to mention the fact that there are plenty of RB's I left off the list as well as rookies. I also think there are very few ? marks, for the most part, with this group of guys.

Tier 1

------

AP

Tier 2

------

MJD

SJax

Tier 3

------

Turner

DeWill

Forte

Tier 4

------

CJ3

LT

Gore

Tier 5

------

Barber

Westy

Portis

Slaton

Tier 6

------

Bush

Lynch

Jacobs

P. Thomas

Tier 7

------

T. Jones

Grant

K. Smith

Ronnie Brown

LJ

Addai

Not even mentioned -- McFadden, Stewart, FWP, D. Ward, J. Lewis, McGahee, Benson, Graham, Felix Jones, LenDale White

And while I have those in quite a few tiers, the difference between my 5th tier and my 8th tier isn't that much, IMO. Likewise, the 1st-4th tiers are very close to each other as well. I think next year's drafts are going to look VERY different than recent years as many may decide to wait on a RB2 with so many quality choices. I look back at this year and remember that by the middle of the 2nd round, there weren't many RB's I would have been happy with. It seemed that after the first 12-14 guys, there was a big dropoff. Of course, things will change with trades, FA signings, rookie draft, but this is a pretty stable group, IMO.

 

[Da Guru]

In a ppr redraft, this is how I currently have guys ranked. While many of you may disagree and differ where you have some of these players, I think most would agree that all of these guys have potential to do well and all of them make decent #2 RB's. This is not even to mention the fact that there are plenty of RB's I left off the list as well as rookies. I also think there are very few ? marks, for the most part, with this group of guys.Tier 1------APTier 2------MJDSJaxTier 3------TurnerDeWillForteTier 4------CJ3LTGoreTier 5------BarberWestyPortisTier 6------SlatonBushTier 7------LynchJacobsP. ThomasTier 8------T. JonesGrantK. SmithRonnie BrownLJAddaiNot even mentioned -- McFadden, Stewart, FWP, D. Ward, J. Lewis, McGahee, Benson, Graham, Felix Jones, LenDale WhiteI think next year's drafts are going to look VERY different than recent years as many may decide to wait on a RB2 with so many quality choices. I look back at this year and remember that by the middle of the 2nd round, there weren't many RB's I would have been happy with. It seemed that after the first 12-14 guys, there was a big dropoff. Of course, things will change with trades, FA signings, rookie draft, but this is a pretty stable group, IMO.

D-Willy tier 3?I was never a fan, but I have to give him his props.

 

[gonzobill5]

In a ppr redraft, this is how I currently have guys ranked. While many of you may disagree and differ where you have some of these players, I think most would agree that all of these guys have potential to do well and all of them make decent #2 RB's. This is not even to mention the fact that there are plenty of RB's I left off the list as well as rookies. I also think there are very few ? marks, for the most part, with this group of guys.Tier 1------APTier 2------MJDSJaxTier 3------TurnerDeWillForteTier 4------CJ3LTGoreTier 5------BarberWestyPortisTier 6------SlatonBushTier 7------LynchJacobsP. ThomasTier 8------T. JonesGrantK. SmithRonnie BrownLJAddaiNot even mentioned -- McFadden, Stewart, FWP, D. Ward, J. Lewis, McGahee, Benson, Graham, Felix Jones, LenDale WhiteI think next year's drafts are going to look VERY different than recent years as many may decide to wait on a RB2 with so many quality choices. I look back at this year and remember that by the middle of the 2nd round, there weren't many RB's I would have been happy with. It seemed that after the first 12-14 guys, there was a big dropoff. Of course, things will change with trades, FA signings, rookie draft, but this is a pretty stable group, IMO.

i think you're right on with your premise. i'm hoping for a later pick next year and plan on locking up a qb much earlier than usual. i'll be looking to draft a lot of depth at rb. don't understand some of your rankings or how you separate your tiers, but that's a different thread.

 

[gianmarco]

I consider DeWill a top 5 guy. I also have those top 6 guys pretty close to each other. Splitting hairs, but I'd still prefer SJax and MJD over him for now. Those next 3 are pretty much dead even to me and would depend on my mood if I had to choose today.

 

[gianmarco]

don't understand some of your rankings or how you separate your tiers, but that's a different thread.

Doesn't need to be a different thread at all. Feel free to ask what you don't understand or don't agree with. My rankings don't usually go along with conventional thinking but I'd be happy to explain any of it and hope it could generate some discussion (much of which would go along with the general idea here).

 

[brutha]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=450305

 

[gonzobill5]

what is it about ADP that makes you put him in a tier all to himself? for me he's among the top three or four guys i'd consider with the #1 overall pick, but until childress leaves i'm not sure he'll be in a class by himself.

why is sjax so high? he's put up some monster games this year, but he's been injured two years in a row and i don't see that team turning things around any time soon.

cj3 two tiers ahead of slaton? these guys have had very similar seasons and i think slaton is a better bet to repeat.

 

[gianmarco]

what is it about ADP that makes you put him in a tier all to himself? for me he's among the top three or four guys i'd consider with the #1 overall pick, but until childress leaves i'm not sure he'll be in a class by himself.why is sjax so high? he's put up some monster games this year, but he's been injured two years in a row and i don't see that team turning things around any time soon. cj3 two tiers ahead of slaton? these guys have had very similar seasons and i think slaton is a better bet to repeat.

1) Because I still think AP is the biggest difference maker in the game, the best talent, and I actually think he had a "down" year because of his lack of TD's. The guy just ran for almost 1800 yds this year and somehow "only" had 10 TDs. I think he should easily get 1500/15 and anything else is gravy. Chester will also be 30 next year and AP will be heading into his 3rd year. I truly believe he can still get better. Mind you, I see a minimal difference at this point between him and MJD/SJax, but it's still there. In my tiers above, the guys in each tier are practically interchangeable. 2) SJax is so high because, despite missing time with injuries, he was still #6 in ppg in my ppr league (not including today's monster) and the Rams were an absolute mess. I think Linehan was a big problem in how he was used and the whole situation in StL. Today showed just what kind of #'s he's able to put up. The injury thing is a concern, but with a player like him (like Westbrook the last couple of years), I personally take that gamble. I'd rather have his production for 12 games than someone else for 16. Finally, I think the holdout played a big role in his problems this year. I look for SJax to return to his dominant form from a couple years ago.3) CJ3 is just a great talent and he put up the #'s he did WITH LenDale scoring 15 rushing TDs. Slaton did what he did without anything taking quality carries from him. I see Houston bringing in someone else to compete for some carries. I see CJ3's role expanding. Considering they were close to equal this year and I see one guy improving on it and another probably declining from it, that explains the difference. Nevertheless, again, the difference isn't that big and I'd be happy with either one.

 

[gonzobill5]

what is it about ADP that makes you put him in a tier all to himself? for me he's among the top three or four guys i'd consider with the #1 overall pick, but until childress leaves i'm not sure he'll be in a class by himself.why is sjax so high? he's put up some monster games this year, but he's been injured two years in a row and i don't see that team turning things around any time soon. cj3 two tiers ahead of slaton? these guys have had very similar seasons and i think slaton is a better bet to repeat.

1) Because I still think AP is the biggest difference maker in the game, the best talent, and I actually think he had a "down" year because of his lack of TD's. The guy just ran for almost 1800 yds this year and somehow "only" had 10 TDs. I think he should easily get 1500/15 and anything else is gravy. Chester will also be 30 next year and AP will be heading into his 3rd year. I truly believe he can still get better. Mind you, I see a minimal difference at this point between him and MJD/SJax, but it's still there. In my tiers above, the guys in each tier are practically interchangeable. 2) SJax is so high because, despite missing time with injuries, he was still #6 in ppg in my ppr league (not including today's monster) and the Rams were an absolute mess. I think Linehan was a big problem in how he was used and the whole situation in StL. Today showed just what kind of #'s he's able to put up. The injury thing is a concern, but with a player like him (like Westbrook the last couple of years), I personally take that gamble. I'd rather have his production for 12 games than someone else for 16. Finally, I think the holdout played a big role in his problems this year. I look for SJax to return to his dominant form from a couple years ago.3) CJ3 is just a great talent and he put up the #'s he did WITH LenDale scoring 15 rushing TDs. Slaton did what he did without anything taking quality carries from him. I see Houston bringing in someone else to compete for some carries. I see CJ3's role expanding. Considering they were close to equal this year and I see one guy improving on it and another probably declining from it, that explains the difference. Nevertheless, again, the difference isn't that big and I'd be happy with either one.

i agree with your analysis of ADP, no way he should have only had 10 TDs, but i think childress needs to leave or change his ways before you see those numbers go up significantly. it could very likely happen, but it keeps me from ranking him in a class by himself. sjax is looking like fool's gold to me, especially after the stats he racked up in the last 3 against mediocre to bad defenses with little to play for. i would honestly have a hard time taking him in the first round. a lot of people have suggested houston brings in a rb to compete. i guess it depends on who it is before i change my mind on slaton.

 

[GiantsRule]

Kevin Smith is Tier 5 EASILY!

 

[weasel3515]

ADP reminds me of Earl Campbell. He is an amazing runner but takes too many shots. Also not a great receiver. To rank him in a class of himself is blinding yourself. Slaton should be ranked higher than CJ3 for 2 reasons. First, the Texans offense will only get better, even if they bring in a TD vulture. Second, it is highly unlikely the Titans repeat what they did this year. I think you could take ADP, Westy, S-Jax (VERY injury prone), Slaton, D-Will, Turner and Forte and pick them out of a hat next year. MJD is ranked too high.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

DWill over MJD and SJax. He is on a better team, better O line and he has a top end gear.

 

[To commish is my wish]

DWill over MJD and SJax. He is on a better team, better O line and he has a top end gear.

...but he doesn't catch the ball nearly as much as MJD or SJax. This is PPR he's talking about.

 

[gianmarco]

ADP reminds me of Earl Campbell. He is an amazing runner but takes too many shots. Also not a great receiver. To rank him in a class of himself is blinding yourself. Slaton should be ranked higher than CJ3 for 2 reasons. First, the Texans offense will only get better, even if they bring in a TD vulture. Second, it is highly unlikely the Titans repeat what they did this year. I think you could take ADP, Westy, S-Jax (VERY injury prone), Slaton, D-Will, Turner and Forte and pick them out of a hat next year. MJD is ranked too high.

Well, to me, to not rank him in a tier by himself is blinding yourself. He's the only guy in the league that could potentially run for 2000 yds and 20+ TDs, IMHO. Combine that potential with being as close to a lock for 1500 yds rushing and double digit TDs and he's easily the #1 RB for me. I agree with you that you could put those RB's (as well as a few others) in a hat and get almost the same production. That's a big reason why I even started this thread. There are a LOT of high potential guys going into next year at this point. But the guy is the most talented runner in the NFL. He had TEN games of 100+ rushing yds. He had FIVE games of 130+ rushing yds. He had TWENTY runs of 20+ yds or more. Everyone thought his YPC would drop after last year. It did. To a measly 4.8 ypc on 360 carries. If he scores 15 TDs instead of 10, no one is questioning this ranking. He easily has the highest potential of any RB in the league and that's why he gets that top tier all to himself. He's the guy most capable of putting up a 2006 LT-like season.As for Slaton vs. CJ3, I tried to explain my reasons above. I can see those 2 guys being all over the place next year and it's just a matter of preference and at the end of the day, we're probably just splitting hairs. But, between the 2, I think CJ3 is the more talented guy and I'll take that any day of the week. Slaton landed in a great situation. Don't get me wrong, I think he's quite talented as well, but not in the same league as CJ3. Finally, re: MJD. I was NOT an MJD believer after his 1st year. I thought his #'s were a fluke, particularly his TD #'s. I was sure they'd fall down to earth. Then last year happened and he almost duplicated them again. Now, after his 3rd year with yet another double digit TD year and another 1400 combined yds, the guy is firmly entrenched at the top. There is nothing he doesn't do well. He has a high YPC (career 4.8 ypc). He has caught 40+ balls every year he's been in the league (caught 60 this year). He can break long TD runs. He's the goal-line RB. He can run inside. He can run outside. He can pass-protect as good as any RB in the league (he and Portis stand out here). He's built to handle a full load with his thick, compact body (i.e, he's a tank) and doesn't take hits or run as hard as other guys like Barber or AP. And he's done all this while splitting time and while having to play behind a decimated O-line. It seems that the starting job may finally be his going into next year. Bottom line is, I'm finally convinced. I think he's the next coming of LT in terms of having an all-around game. He was the #4 RB this year in my 1 ppr league. He's probably the safest pick you can make in that he has 3 yrs track record (compared to guys like Turner, Forte, Slaton, CJ3) without the injury concerns (SJax, Westy, AP) with potential to finish top 3-5. In other words, I don't see any weakness in his game. He's proven to run well (4.8 career ypc), catch well (40+ receptions at ~10 ypr), score well (38 TDs in 47 games), doesn't miss time (missed 1 game in 3 yrs) and done it in less than ideal situation (splitting time and behind a bad O-line). That's why I have him that high.

 

[timschochet]

I say Beanie Wells comes into the league and tears it up.

 

[gianmarco]

I say Beanie Wells comes into the league and tears it up.

Where? There are going to be very few open RB positions to take over.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Ricky will leave the Phins and he and Ronnie will move up substantially because of it.

 

[Synthesizer]

Your top 17 RBs are grouped into 7 tiers. Is there really that much difference between Portis and Slaton that they need to be in separate tiers?

 

[David Yudkin]

Most years there are almost 20 (sometimes more) RBs that look like they could be factors before the season starts, and next year will be no different.

 

[gianmarco]

Your top 17 RBs are grouped into 7 tiers. Is there really that much difference between Portis and Slaton that they need to be in separate tiers?

As I tried to explain above, the "tiers" are very different than in year's past in that they are all very close to each other. The players in each tier are virtually interchangeable. As I was trying to do a pure ranking, I kept running into groups of 3 and 4 that were identical so I just did it that way. Overall, tiers 1 through 4 are very close to each other and I see very little difference between that group of guys. Likewise, the guys in groups 5-7 are pretty close to each other. That's where I would distinguish between RB1's and RB2's.If you want, remove the tiers and just look at the guys as a list from 1 to 23. These are ALL guys that are capable of a top 10 season and all can/should be solid #2 RBs at worst. That's the point of the thread, not which specific guys are where or how they are grouped (even though I'm more than happy to discuss why I have someone where).ETA--I moved Slaton and Bush as they were pretty much equal to the places I moved them to.

 

[gianmarco]

Most years there are almost 20 (sometimes more) RBs that look like they could be factors before the season starts, and next year will be no different.

Sorry, but I disagree here. Particularly with how it relates to last year.Last year, the guys in the 10-20 range were littered with guys with LOTS of question marks. These guys included LJ (coming off injury), McGahee, Ronnie Brown, Grant, Maroney, M. Turner, Jacobs. There were lots of concerns with all of these guys. The only guys going into last year that MOST people were comfortable with overall were: AP, SJax, Westy, LT, Barber, Addai, MJD, Gore, and Lynch. After that, there were a consensus "dropoff".

This year, guys like Jacobs, Ronnie, and T. Jones are ranked around 20th (at least on my list) and have very few questions about them. There are guys in that 15-20 range that I would feel comfortable with as my RB#1. This past year, there were guys in the 10-15 range that I didn't even really like as a #2 RB.

Plus, I'm not saying they could be just factors. The guys I listed with the exception of a couple (K. Smith, PT) have all been in the top 10 very recently (and viewed as #1 RBs) and pretty much all of them have a legit chance to return up there. I don't think that's a normal thing every year.

 

[Tanner9919]

In a ppr redraft, this is how I currently have guys ranked. While many of you may disagree and differ where you have some of these players, I think most would agree that all of these guys have potential to do well and all of them make decent #2 RB's. This is not even to mention the fact that there are plenty of RB's I left off the list as well as rookies. I also think there are very few ? marks, for the most part, with this group of guys.

Tier 1

------

AP

Turner

D'Will

BENSON - proven to be a legit stud-RB in the making.Palmer's return will only make Benson better..

Tier 2

------

MJD

SJax

Forte

Turner

Tier 3

------

Turner

DeWill

Forte

Portis

Slaton

CJ3

Pierre Thomas

Derrick Ward

Tier 4

------

CJ3

LT

Gore

Addai

Westy

MJD - not a full-time, 300+ carry RB..

Tier 5

------

Barber

Bush

Lynch

Jacobs

TJ

P. Thomas

Tier 6

------

T. Jones

Grant

K. Smith

Ronnie Brown

Sjax

LJ

Addai

Lynch

Bush

Barber ( just ask Switz, he was dead-on with his Barber prediction this season )

Tier 7

LT

doesn't include rookies and Stewart or McFadden et al..

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Tanner's tier 1 consists of what I consider to be the 3 most overrated ppr RBs heading into next year.

 

[gianmarco]

Tier 7

------

T. Jones

Grant

K. Smith

Ronnie Brown

LJ

Addai

Lynch

Bush

Barber ( just ask Switz, he was dead-on with his Barber prediction this season )

Tier 8

LT

doesn't include rookies and Stewart or McFadden et al..

While we obviously differ in some of these rankings (and some by a considerable amount), the thing is that you have guys like Lynch and Barber ranked in the 20's. Now, you obviously aren't as high on them as others based on your rankings, but to think that you've got reliable ball carriers in the 20's is why I think there's a lot of depth this year and why I think many are going to wait on RB's come draft time. And the thing is, it's not as if your rankings are ridiculous because all of the guys you have listed above him I could see arguments for pretty easily. Oh, and I have no need to ask Switz about Barber just like I wouldn't ask him about Addai.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I say Beanie Wells comes into the league and tears it up.

Where? There are going to be very few open RB positions to take over.

not saying he will tear it up but possible open RB spots:SeattleKC - when they cut/trade LJNew England Cleveland?Cincy - you convinced about Benson?ArizonaTampaDenver

 

[Nemesis]

I'm surprised to see NOBODY mentioning Mendenhall from PITT.

I know he had a bad rookie preseason this yr and got hurt just as he was given an opportunity to show what he has in the regular season. FWP is too brittle to carry the load and Mendehall might be the GL back as well which keeps his value up.

Look for Pittsburgh's #1 priority this offseason to upgrade that OL and reduce the pounding that Big Ben is taking this yr.