Drafting Theory for Carson Palmer (1 Viewer)

[Bristol]

I just looked at the last two weeks worth of drafts at Antsports to see where Palmer's ADP is at. Over the past two weeks, he is being selected in the late 4th round of 10 team leagues (4.8 ADP). His highest draft position was 3.02 and his lowest was 6.06.

Even given all of the questions about when he will start the season, I think that he represents tremedous value this year given his current ADP.

Normally, when I draft, 3 out of my first four picks are RB and the other is a WR. This year, I am strongly considering taking 3 straight WR's and then taking Palmer in the fourth. WR is very deep this year IMO and having three solid RB's with Palmer would almost make you unbeatable.

This is the year that you should deviate because Palmer will be a 1st or 2nd round pick next year. Don't miss the boat!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Was picked 2.01 in one of my drafts already...a lot of people are on the 2007 boat this year. All reports are that he is going to play in week 1...32 TD last season, lot of regular football fans think he is the next Dan Marino/Brett Favre.

 

[PahtyTom]

I can't see him not taking a step back this year, before he goes forward again next year. Injury happened way too late last year.

 

[David Yudkin]

I strongly disagree that Palmer = "great value." He currnently is going as the #2 QB (at least that's his current ADP), which is assuming no negative impact AT ALL from his surgery. IMO, it is unrealistic to expect that he picks up where he left off and never skips a beat.

The other thing that very few people are discussing (or even know) is that last year the Bengals' defense forced a HUGE number of turnovers--to the tune of like 48 IIRC. The chances of them replicating that feat are somewhere between none and zero.

While the offense should still be solid, IMO, they will not see the ball as often or have as good field position this year, so even if Palmer WERE completely healthy I would expect his TD numbers to drop off some with fewer scoring opportunities.

The last team that forced a lot of turnovers was the 2004 Bills, and we saw how their offense fared in 2005. True, they were a mess in several areas, but they still did not garner much in the way of red zone opportunities (which is why I felt people were nuts for taking McGahee as a Top 5 pick last year).

I would be leary of how much value Palmer will actually produce this year, and taking him as the #2 QB this year seems too risky in my book.

 

[Bristol]

I strongly disagree that Palmer = "great value." He currnently is going as the #2 QB (at least that's his current ADP), which is assuming no negative impact AT ALL from his surgery. IMO, it is unrealistic to expect that he picks up where he left off and never skips a beat.The other thing that very few people are discussing (or even know) is that last year the Bengals' defense forced a HUGE number of turnovers--to the tune of like 48 IIRC. The chances of them replicating that feat are somewhere between none and zero.While the offense should still be solid, IMO, they will not see the ball as often or have as good field position this year, so even if Palmer WERE completely healthy I would expect his TD numbers to drop off some with fewer scoring opportunities.The last team that forced a lot of turnovers was the 2004 Bills, and we saw how their offense fared in 2005. True, they were a mess in several areas, but they still did not garner much in the way of red zone opportunities (which is why I felt people were nuts for taking McGahee as a Top 5 pick last year).I would be leary of how much value Palmer will actually produce this year, and taking him as the #2 QB this year seems too risky in my book.

I see your point, but I disagree. All of the same offensive tools are still in place. The schedule may be a little tougher, but even in the tough games last year, he came up huge. I really don't understand why people do not think that the Bengals defense can get turnovers. They did last year and Lewis sets the defense up to put them in spots to make turnovers. I agree that they may not get as many as they did last year, but I don't think the drop off will be as great as you may think.If Palmer did not get injured, he would be the unquestioned QB 1A this season and be drafted in the first or second round. I am not worried about the injury status at all. For him to have a ADP of 4.08 in recent mocks is ridiculous and that is where the value lies.All of the reasons you presented David are the same reasons why he is dropping to where he is. I will gladly take him in the late 4th and not look back.

 

[Bristol]

Was picked 2.01 in one of my drafts already...a lot of people are on the 2007 boat this year. All reports are that he is going to play in week 1...32 TD last season, lot of regular football fans think he is the next Dan Marino/Brett Favre.

I'm surprised that he would be picked that high. Was this a shark league or a casual league? I can clearly see a lot of guppies grabbing him early based on last year's stats, but not sharks. If you subscribe to the VBD draft theory, there is no way he is taken that early.

 

[Snotbubbles]

The other thing that very few people are discussing (or even know) is that last year the Bengals' defense forced a HUGE number of turnovers--to the tune of like 48 IIRC. The chances of them replicating that feat are somewhere between none and zero.While the offense should still be solid, IMO, they will not see the ball as often or have as good field position this year, so even if Palmer WERE completely healthy I would expect his TD numbers to drop off some with fewer scoring opportunities.

Bengals D 2004Sacks: 37Fumbles: 16INTs: 20Bengals D 2005Sacks: 28Fumbles: 13INTs: 31

 

[FFFIEND]

I can't see him not taking a step back this year, before he goes forward again next year. Injury happened way too late last year.

I am going to vote for this opinion. I don't want Palmer in 2006. I will let someone else use a 4th rounder or above on him.

 

[Domination]

Palmer has arguable comperable weapons to Manning. (CJ & Housh=Harrison & Wayne) Slight edge to Indy, but when you figure that defense have to respect Rudi coming out of the backfield, something Peyton doesn't have the luxery of any more, I think that the Bengals have a more potent offense than the Colts. That being as it is, I don't see a step back. He had 32 TDs last year and led the league, there were 4 Qbs who had more TD passes than that the previous year alone. I don't think he becomes Manning of 2 years ago, but I think that 30-35 TDs is a fair assumption. I think he is QB 1A and great value if you can get him in the 4th rd.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Was picked 2.01 in one of my drafts already...a lot of people are on the 2007 boat this year. All reports are that he is going to play in week 1...32 TD last season, lot of regular football fans think he is the next Dan Marino/Brett Favre.

I'm surprised that he would be picked that high. Was this a shark league or a casual league? I can clearly see a lot of guppies grabbing him early based on last year's stats, but not sharks. If you subscribe to the VBD draft theory, there is no way he is taken that early.

I would say it's a split between Sharks and casual. One of the owners and 3 or 4 of his writers are in this league and a couple of people who do podcasts with him. The person he picked Palmer was a newbie...we have a couple of casual types but the newbie explains that pick.

 

[Chaka]

Was picked 2.01 in one of my drafts already...a lot of people are on the 2007 boat this year. All reports are that he is going to play in week 1...32 TD last season, lot of regular football fans think he is the next Dan Marino/Brett Favre.

I'm surprised that he would be picked that high. Was this a shark league or a casual league? I can clearly see a lot of guppies grabbing him early based on last year's stats, but not sharks. If you subscribe to the VBD draft theory, there is no way he is taken that early.

Buzz words anyone? JKI am a big Palmer fan but any QB coming off a shredded knee in January should not be the #2 QB off the board.

You will get better, and safer, value a little later with guys like Hasselbeck, Brady, Bledsoe, Plummer or Delhomme.

 

[Thumper]

Was picked 2.01 in one of my drafts already...a lot of people are on the 2007 boat this year. All reports are that he is going to play in week 1...32 TD last season, lot of regular football fans think he is the next Dan Marino/Brett Favre.

I'm surprised that he would be picked that high. Was this a shark league or a casual league? I can clearly see a lot of guppies grabbing him early based on last year's stats, but not sharks. If you subscribe to the VBD draft theory, there is no way he is taken that early.

Buzz words anyone? JKI am a big Palmer fan but any QB coming off a shredded knee in January should not be the #2 QB off the board.

You will get better, and safer, value a little later with guys like Hasselbeck, Brady, Bledsoe, Plummer or Delhomme.

Don't forget Palmer has a very tough schedule on top of having a bad knee.

 

[Chaka]

Was picked 2.01 in one of my drafts already...a lot of people are on the 2007 boat this year. All reports are that he is going to play in week 1...32 TD last season, lot of regular football fans think he is the next Dan Marino/Brett Favre.

I'm surprised that he would be picked that high. Was this a shark league or a casual league? I can clearly see a lot of guppies grabbing him early based on last year's stats, but not sharks. If you subscribe to the VBD draft theory, there is no way he is taken that early.

Buzz words anyone? JKI am a big Palmer fan but any QB coming off a shredded knee in January should not be the #2 QB off the board.

You will get better, and safer, value a little later with guys like Hasselbeck, Brady, Bledsoe, Plummer or Delhomme.

Don't forget Palmer has a very tough schedule on top of having a bad knee.

Yeah but he had a difficult schedule last season too. Great players perform regardless of opponents.

 

[Domination]

Yeah but he had a difficult schedule last season too. Great players perform regardless of opponents.
Great quote and so true. Which is why I think that Palmer will pick up right where he left off last year.

 

[David Yudkin]

ANother thing to consider about Palmer is that even though he ranked as the #1 QB last year, 2005 was a bit of a down year for QB. His point total from last year would have ranked him as the #6 QB in 2004.

I still think he does pretty well this year, but he has a fair amount of risk if you take him as the #2 QB.

 

[Gopher State]

He was picked 2.03 in my 12 team money performance re-draft league on Monday, everyone wanted him and felt he was money in the bank

 

[Bristol]

Was picked 2.01 in one of my drafts already...a lot of people are on the 2007 boat this year. All reports are that he is going to play in week 1...32 TD last season, lot of regular football fans think he is the next Dan Marino/Brett Favre.

I'm surprised that he would be picked that high. Was this a shark league or a casual league? I can clearly see a lot of guppies grabbing him early based on last year's stats, but not sharks. If you subscribe to the VBD draft theory, there is no way he is taken that early.

I would say it's a split between Sharks and casual. One of the owners and 3 or 4 of his writers are in this league and a couple of people who do podcasts with him. The person he picked Palmer was a newbie...we have a couple of casual types but the newbie explains that pick.

That does explain it. I don't think he would be taken that high in shark leagues.

 

[Bristol]

Palmer has arguable comperable weapons to Manning. (CJ & Housh=Harrison & Wayne) Slight edge to Indy, but when you figure that defense have to respect Rudi coming out of the backfield, something Peyton doesn't have the luxery of any more, I think that the Bengals have a more potent offense than the Colts. That being as it is, I don't see a step back. He had 32 TDs last year and led the league, there were 4 Qbs who had more TD passes than that the previous year alone. I don't think he becomes Manning of 2 years ago, but I think that 30-35 TDs is a fair assumption. I think he is QB 1A and great value if you can get him in the 4th rd.

Good to see I am not alone in this thinking.

 

[Shiver44]

The Bengals have a much tougher schedule this year. So even disregarding the knee injury that will keep him away from 100%, Palmer isn't likely to repeat his performance. I don't think we'll see Carson Palmer back in his prime until 2007.

 

[Bristol]

The Bengals have a much tougher schedule this year. So even disregarding the knee injury that will keep him away from 100%, Palmer isn't likely to repeat his performance. I don't think we'll see Carson Palmer back in his prime until 2007.

Palmer had a tough schedule last year. Didn't stop him then.

 

[chris1969]

The only thing you can do with Palmer is to wait a day or 2 before your draft to make a decision. If he never got hurt I would have had him a close 2nd to Peyton. His value is still good now, but his ADP is going up every day. If your draft was today I would say he'd be a great pick as an early QB2, but as his ADP goes up you may have the decision of whether or not you want him as a QBBC or maybe even QB1. You can't decide that until you see a couple of preseason games. Lots of upside, but lots of risk.

 

[veto87]

depends on the scoring setup too, is Palmer getting 6 or 4 for a TD to make him have more value vs other positions?

His ligament was replaced with an achilles tendon from a 44 year old woman. The tendon is 2X as strong as the ligament so that may be why he looks to be having a faster than expected recovery. Check out the article

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/09/sports/f...ml?ref=football

 

[Department 400]

This isn't about last years stats, touchdowns, schedule or how prolific the offense may be. All those are granted (mostly). The single, overriding question regarding Palmer is the "shredded" knee and his health.

If you read chatter about Palmer and his quotes in the press, you hear him being the perfect poster boy for the trainers. Paraphrasing now but he says, "I'll push it when they tell me to push it and back off when they tell me to back off." This sounds like a guy how knows he has limits and is being very careful, not only with the knee but with his words.

How can such a horrific injury (three tendons shredded) a mere eight months ago not effect his ability to throw the ball (let alone long ball). IMO, it is unrealistic to assume the first quarter of the season won't be effected negatively (if not more) by this years injury.

Logic, reason, and pure physiology say I would prefer selecting a player with a better chance of player the entire season than gambling on a long-shot. Wait on your QB, grab Brooks in the 8th or beyond while you stack RB's and WR's in the first few rounds. Let someone else gamble.

 

[Mapmaker]

12 team PPR, 3/TD; -1/Int; 1/20 Yds

1.11 Manning - there's alway's someone whos got the love

5.01 Brady - history say's he's good value in here; Branch holdout holding his value down a little

5.03 Palmer - a gamble due to injury, but moving up ADP lists every week

5.05 Hasselbeck - solid value play, if DJax is healthy sky's the limit

5.08 McNabb - questions about receiving corp but slotted about right here

6.04 Plummer - knee jerk reaction to the position run

This draft took place this week !

I took Palmer @ QB3/51 and felt he presented excellent value here .. mind you I backed him up with Rivers 10.10 and Warner 11.03, both of whom will give me a solid QB schedule early in case Palmer has a minor setback during preseason.

If your going to gamble on Palmer and you draft early in the preseason ... Cover your bet!