Full disclosure: This is not my article.
Fantasy playoff schedules in August should be taken with a large grain of salt (at best).
The strength of schedule landscape can change very quickly in the NFL. Particularly when we're breaking down week 14-16 strength of schedules as Cavanagh does below. That said, the following is a list of likely candidates to heat up when the games matter most. I personally feel that using this stuff to help you split hairs between two similarly valued players at your fantasy draft has quite a bit to do with what some of your opponents like to term "getting lucky" down the home stretch.
Top 15 Helped: Weeks 14-17
Felix Jones
Yes, I know I have driving the Felix Jones bandwagon all preseason but let’s not forget the running back draft class he came from (Forte, McFadden, Slaton, Johnson, Stewart to name a few) and some still believe Felix Jones is and will prove to be the best of all. He was a home-run hitting stud during his short injury riddled first season but this year things should be different.
Although the Cowboys don’t face the softest of run defenses at fantasy playoff time, their week 14 and week 15 games vs. San Diego and @ New Orleans figure to be track meets with both teams scoring at will as the teams will need at least 30 points to win the game. Combine this with the probability that these games will be meaningful for the Cowboys as they push towards the playoffs in the tough NFC East. By December, Jones figures to be receiving at least 12 touches per contest and nearing double-digit scores. Garrett will find ways to get him the rock and his big play ability could be what fantasy owners need to at least propel them into their finals (his week 16 opponent @ Washington could be more difficult).
He will be a RB2 by the latter weeks of the year and with the potential for fireworks in the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, Jones is most definitely helped by the fantasy schedule.
Beanie Wells
By fantasy playoff time, Chris Wells will be a major player in fantasy circles and could produce quality stat lines including scores in all three fantasy playoff games that include @San Fran, @Detroit and at home vs/ St. Louis in what could be your fantasy final! The Cardinals ran more towards their playoff run and will definitely continue this trend deep into the ’09 campaign.
All three defenses they face are projected to be in the bottom third of the league overall. Against the run last season San Fran ranked 13th, Detroit was 27th and St. Louis was 29th. Weather won’t be an issue at all and you can ride this rookie to your title. He will be splitting some carries with Hightower but by drafting a running back in the first round that tells us what the Cardinals think of the inconsistent job done by last year’s rookie Tim Hightower and veteran Edgerrin James.
Matt Ryan
Two dome home games against high scoring New Orleans and Buffalo and one game against the 29th ranked passing defense of 2008 as they visit the Jets. Matt Ryan begins his sophomore year with huge upside but will most likely begin the year an above average QB2.
With the addition of Tony Gonzalez to go along with White, Jenkins and Norwood, he should only grow in confidence as the reigns are pulled off this second year star. Being at home in the dome in week 16 is almost always recommended, even if Buffalo’s pass D isn’t that bad.
He has to be bumped slightly ahead of Matt Hasselback due to the fantasy schedule too as Hasselback plays at Green Bay in week 16, which means snow and a solid pass D. Take Ryan and the dome in that comparison. As was already pointed out, Atlanta does travel to New York to face the Jets during the fantasy playoffs but even with the potential for bad weather, the Jets’ porous pass D of 2008 could be too inviting to pass up.
Mark Clayton
Two of the last three games for Baltimore are versus the 27th and 30th ranked pass defenses in the league from 2008. Clayton is going into his fourth year with plenty to prove. He continued to be outplayed by the newly departed Derrick Mason but this could be the coming out party for the 27 year old underachiever. Let’s not forget that he had a 67rec/939yds/5 touchdown rookie year in 2006. Second year pivot Joe Flacco has the type of arm that can fully utilize Mark Clayton’s blazing speed. Clayton could be a sleeper WR3 in weeks 14-15.
He is exactly the type of fantasy playoff depth player that could vault you into your fantasy final. However, you won’t be using his services in week 16 when Baltimore travels to Pittsburgh for the all too predictable 6-3 game in the snow.
Kevin Walter
The Houston Texans will explode in 2009 offensively if the core of Johnson, Schaub, Slaton, Daniels and the man who makes this list, Kevin Walter, can stay healthy. The offense is poised to put up some massive fantasy playoff numbers with games at home vs. Seattle, who always struggles away from Qwest, at St. Louis and ending in Miami, where the sun is always recommended in December matchups. Walter plays in a pass happy offense and even with Andre Johnson around he sees plenty of balls and plenty of red zone looks.
Walter will most likely be a serviceable WR3 all year and could have you smelling roses come fantasy playoff time. Take advantage of this schedule as any team with two NFC West teams as part of it’s fantasy playoff schedule is almost a must start.
Anthony Gonzalez
Is it just me or does Indy always seem to play two out of their 3 fantasy playoff games at home, usually against soft defenses or teams with losing records? They do always seem to get lucky this way but let us not forget this is the squad that has a history of resting players as their playoff position is usually sealed by week 16. Buyer beware, as usual with Colts during the fantasy playoff run.
Anthony Gonzalez won’t sneak up on anybody as it is well known that he's the beneficiary of Mr. Harrison’s departure from the Colts’ wideout corp. Defenses will have to focus their efforts on Wayne and Dallas Clark. Owners can expect plenty of reliable numbers versus the three teams (Broncos, Jags and Jets) that all finished in the bottom ten in pass defenses last year. Although I expect Gonzalez to begin the year as a solid WR3, during playoff time he could go off.
Knowshon Moreno
Denver’s backfield is as crowded as ever, but as every fantasy owner has been praying for in Denver for years, we just want some week-to-week consistency. We are all tired of having the Tatum Bell’s or Mike Bell’s or Peyton Hillis’s leading the team in rushing on any given Sunday.
We don’t expect a one-back system here. I see Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno emerging from the rest by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around. Moreno was arguably the most talented back in the draft and NFL teams, even Denver, don’t spend first round picks on running backs to sit (Forte, Slaton, Johnson, Stewart) of last year’s class are proof of that.
In looking at the fantasy playoff matchups, Moreno faces Indy on the road in week 14 and then versus Oakland at home. Indy and Oakland ranked 24th and 31st against the run last year and he could very well get you to you fantasy super bowl where Moreno would have a tough matchup at Philly. With no Cutler and Brandon Marshall’s situation still up in the air, the Broncos will need to establish the run and Moreno should definitely be leading the charge coming down the stretch.
Jamaal Charles
Assuming Larry Johnson will find a way to screw up and a non-factor in K.C. by the time the fantasy playoffs arrive. We're also assuming that second year back Jamaal Charles is capable of shouldering a full load in the NFL with his finesse-type running style. Time will tell.
His strengths include the fact that he is a threat as a receiver out of the backfield and a fantasy playoff schedule including Buffalo (22nd), Cleveland (28th) and Cincy (21st), he arguably has the best schedule to run against of anyone. It’s risky to assume that Charles will be the main man by December, but whomever is running the ball could be this year’s Cedric Benson (a RB4 who gives you RB2 production at just the right time.
To make the schedule even more attractive, the games in week 14 and 15 are at Arrowhead.
Leon Washington
The Jets have bulked up and improved all over the defensive side of the ball. New coach Rex Ryan will build around a rookie quarterback and a very conservative rushing attack.
Although Jones is the #1 back in New York, many experts including myself are predicting an increased role for the multi-talented Leon Washington. With over 800 all purpose yards and 8 touchdowns last season, Washington could explode this year and become 2009'd Darren Sproles, a game-changer that could lead many owners to the promised land with a fantasy schedule including games at Tampa Bay, versus Atlanta and at Indy, all of whom were in the bottom half of the league in run defense last season.
Darren McFadden
The first questions that come to mind with regard to McFadden are his injury status and the loaded depth chart behind him. The Raiders run so often that he will be the main cog and if prospective owners need further reassurance of what a stud McFadden is, just think of the running back class of 2008 and remember that he was widely tabbed with the highest upside of all.
The Raiders have games versus Washington, at Denver and at Cleveland, all of whom have poor run defenses and with the potential of bad weather in Denver and Cleveland the running game could be used even more. Fantasy owners of Raiders’ players should be thanking the schedule maker for putting run stuffing defenses Pittsburgh and Baltimore in weeks 13 and 17, thereby missing the fantasy playoffs. Lick your chops here and ride McFadden to your fantasy title.
Brent Celek
One must look past the week 14 game at New York versus the Giants to see home games versus Denver and San Fran.
Although Philly has a plethora of weapons, Celek has made himself into a McNabb fave with an impressive late run last year. I have already pimped Celek as one of my sleepers for this year, but the evidence seems overwhelming and McNabb’s confidence is high with him.
Celek scored 3 times in the playoffs last season, and with a good system that utilizes tight ends, minimal competition for balls at the position and McNabb’s approval, Celek will most likely be a top option at the position come fantasy playoff time. Let the other tight ends go off the board at their ADP and take this one late, he won’t disappoint.
T.J. Duckett
New offensive coordinator in Seattle, Greg Knapp was brought in to install the new zone running scheme and Duckett and Knapp are very familiar with each other from their time together in Atlanta from ’04-’06.
Duckett had 16 touchdowns in Knapp’s two seasons in Atlanta and with Mo Morris gone and Julius Jones a between the twenties guy, Duckett regain's fantasy relevance. T.J. is coming off a season where he scored a nice eight touchdowns, he is only 28 years old and it should be expected that Seattle will spend more time in the red zone this season with T.J. Housmandzadeh and Hasselback back.
Even though Seattle’s fantasy playoff schedule includes two road games, all three opponents ranked in the bottom half vs. the run last season (Houston, Tampa, Green Bay).
Steve Breaston
Nobody has an easier fantasy playoff schedule than the defending NFC champion Arizona Cardinals. Breaking it down to its simplest form, the Cards play three terrible teams and by that time in the year they will most likely be battling for the NFC West title again. Pounding the lesser teams of the league into oblivion will be part of the game plan. I have already forecasted that Beanie Wells will be a big factor @ San Fran, @ Detroit and versus St. Louis and Cards’ receiver Steve Breaston deserves strong consideration. Breaston was a great waiver wire pick-up last season and rewarded owners with solid performances week after week.
I advise you to forget about his status as a WR3 because Arizona throws so often and don’t use tight ends. Breaston is arguably the prototypical fantasy WR3 and will provide numbers rivaling some WR1’s and WR2’s with tough matchups down the stretch.
Matt Schaub
Schaub has the type of fantasy playoff schedule that warrants making him your QB heading into that all-important run of games. I love Houston’s schedule as the offense is poised to explode in 2009. My comparison here at the quarterback position is Aaron Rodgers who will be higher on most draft boards. However, taking into account the schedule of Schaub (Seattle, @St. Louis, @Miami) versus Rodgers (@Chicago, @Pittsburgh and vs. Seattle) owners should consider taking Schaub ahead of the Packer pivot.
Houston will not have any weather issues and all three teams have porous pass defenses. Expect plenty of good stat-lines from Schaub as he easily could average 275-300 yards every game with 2-3 touchdowns in each, which is exactly what will carry your team to the title.
Roy Williams
What happened to Roy Williams? It was scary how pedestrian he looked last season after Jerry Jones mortgaged the future for the services of this native Texan. Williams had 36 receptions for 430 yards and only 3 touchdowns last season, a far cry from his 2006 monster year of 82rec/1310yds/7TD's while playing for the Lions. Williams appeared to lose his ability to create any separation and was reduced to a pure possession type receiver for Romo.
There is a theory that he just can’t play second fiddle and this was the case in Detroit when Calvin Johnson took the role and it was clearly the case last year in Dallas with Owens the main man. Romo will need Roy Williams to regain his ’06 form as he can’t throw to Witten on every down. Dallas plays versus San Diego, @New Orleans and @Washington in the fantasy playoffs with the first two contests sure to be shootouts versus suspect pass defenses. The game at Washington could be a lot tougher but if Williams gets his swagger back you could ride him as a WR1 down the stretch.
