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Draftkings Week 6 (1 Viewer)

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
What do we have for this week?  I am probably going to do my research tonight or tomorrow on my day off.   

Just like I mentioned in the FD thread, I am going to do a handful of Thurs-Mon entries and load up on my Pats for fun.  

He has sucked all year, but one thing that I noticed is that Hogan is only 4K now, so I am going to take a shot on him getting his head out of his ### and putting up some points in a bigger gpp.  Gronk also feels too cheap.  The only thing I remember from my podcasts about KC this year is that the slot corner they got from Wash in the Smith deal is legit, so I wonder if he will be on Edelman and limit his damage.  I like Brady/White/Gronk this week, and Hogan/Michel/Gordan/Edelman are worth looks too.  

I will dig deeper later, but the other games spots just feel like the TB/Atl and Pitts/Cinc games.   The TB rbs are dirt cheap and might be worth a WTF gpp dart too.  

 
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Raging weasel

Footballguy
Not sure I can pay 10k for Gurly this week. Connor at 7.7 seems underpriced and Zeke for 7k looks like a steal. DJ for 5.9k gives some savings with upside for gpps.

If Kupp sits Woods is a must play and Boyd is still too cheap. All Atl/Tam WRs are in play.

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
This was my air yards post from the other thread:

I THINK I understand what the site is getting at, and it so happened that one of the podcasts I listened to yesterday also went on a little bit about air yards, and how they are looking at that for info, especially for gpps and identifying underpriced players.  On their site, they have a rating that is based on targets and their share of air yds.  Here were the highest rated WRs (in order:

Julio, Hopkins, OBJ, Brown, Thielen, C.Davis, Landry, Evans, Green, A.Rob, Diggs, Cooks, M.Thomas, Woods, Adams, J.Brown, Allen, Enunwa, Funchess, Tate, Golladay, Hill, Boyd, Stills, Gabriel, Kupp, JuJu, Jeffrey, K.Benjamin, Sanders, and Moncrief.  

On top of that, they have an efficiency rating that values how well they are doing with their targets and catches.  On the site, they said this usually regresses to the mean, which I guess is about .7 or so.  From the above list, I looked at which receivers are over that number a bit, and could be coming down to earth a tad, and which receivers are below that and could be seeing bigger games in the future if they become more efficient with the targets (or they could just suck and stay inefficient I guess).  Those names were:

Far above .7:  Thielen, Diggs, Cooks, M.Thomas, K.Allen, Tate, Boyd, Kupp, JuJu

Could see some positive regression:  A.Brown, Landry, Evans, A.Rob, J.Brown, Stills, K.Benjamin, and Moncrief.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
I did the same for TE.  The highest rated TEs (in order) were:

Ertz, Kelce, Cook, Kittle, Seals-Jones, Ebron, Gronk, Doyle, Graham, Njoku, Walker, Reed, Burton, Swain.  

The ones that stood out as being inefficient on the year and could see some positive regression were:  Kelce, Seals-Jones, Ebron, Gronk, Graham, Njoku. 

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Here are the guys that are averaging 20 touches/game:

Gurley, Mixon, Zeke, McCaffrey, Conner, Hyde, Barkley, Gordon.  

I think everybody but Gurley is fairly priced or underpriced.  Gurley just gets so many RZ attempts.    He has 32.  The next on the list are Michel, Hyde, and Lynch with 17,15, and 14.  

Just below that list in touches/game:  Hunt, Howard, D.Johnson, Lynch, Carson, Michel

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
On the QB note, the podcast that was talking about air yards was also saying that especially for gpps, what he looks at most is yd/attempt for QB and aDOT for WRs.   

So, here is a list of the QBs that are highest in yds/attempt (over 7.5), highest in intended air yards/attempt (over 8), AND average more than 35 attempts/game:

Mahomes, Watson, Ryan, Mayfield, Rodgers, Ben

Mayfield also showed up when I looked at QB's expected completion rate vs. their completion rate as far as who might have some positive regression coming.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
After looking at this and the DK pricing, I think Julio, Hopkins, and the RBs besides Gurley are underpriced.  

If Brate is the TE chalk, Njoku and Seals-Jones might be gpp dart pivots away from him.   

gpp game pivots based on all this, I am also thinking about a Houst stack (Watson/Hopkins/Coutee - maybe running it back with a cheap Benjamin) and maybe Cleveland (Mayfield/Landry/Njoku and coming back with Gordon or M.Williams).  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Here is what I wrote down for my quick cash LU idea:

Winston :oldunsure:

McCaffery/Zeke/Carson

Julio/D.Jax/J.Brown

Seals-Jones

AZ (just a dirt cheap option that might get a couple sacks)

I have 500 left over, but need 600 for Watson, so I am going to think about this more.  I also thought about Bortles again, but not sure I want 2 players in the Jax/Dallas game.  

 

Raging weasel

Footballguy
People have been touting seals-jones for weeks and he's basically done squat. If a floor of 2pts is ok with you feel free to roll with him. I'd rather spend a little more for someone more consistent or save $400-$500 and go with Swaim or McDonald.

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
People have been touting seals-jones for weeks and he's basically done squat. If a floor of 2pts is ok with you feel free to roll with him. I'd rather spend a little more for someone more consistent or save $400-$500 and go with Swaim or McDonald.
I am thinking about him more too, and might just reserve that for gpps.  It's more of a dirt cheap/regression play and seeing if there is something to this air yards thing.  It's hard to get 6 targets and get 0 points every week, and Minn's one weakness is vs. the TE.    Very possible he and Rosen just suck too.  

 

Raging weasel

Footballguy
Actually thought this was the FD thread so the pricing could be way different. :unsure:

ETA- checked it out and he is basically min price at DK so could make some sense playing him there even in cash. 

 
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KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Actually thought this was the FD thread so the pricing could be way different. :unsure:

ETA- checked it out and he is basically min price at DK so could make some sense playing him there even in cash. 
Yeah, I don't know how you get away from min priced Brate on FD, but RS-J is almost min priced on DK and might free up some cash for a stack or player that we like more.  Just throwing it out there that he showed up in the top 5 of their ratings, and it made me do a double take.  

 

Zyphros

Footballguy
Cash game lineup so far on DK, and I'm actually loving it which is probably a bad sign

Brady

Gurley, Powell

Landry, Chester Rogers, Reynolds

McDonald

James Conner

Panthers

The way I see it is this.  Gurley gets 30 points a week basically, he's free money even at 10k.  Powell looks to be the everydown guy with Crowell missing 2 practices in a row, in what I expect to be a underrated shootout of the week.  I have Powell pretty much everywhere.  Landry, Rogers, Reynolds are all going to see targets and full ppr, I don't need a lot from them to make this worthwhile.  McDonald had plenty of chances last week, I'm not letting that scare me off what is such a good matchup.  Conner's floor is basically 2x value so that's easy.  Panthers, I've picked a poor defense almost every week (thank god Bengals saved me last week with some 2nd half turnover TD's), so here's to hoping that was the beginning of a trend.  Redskins coming off short week and being blown out.  Seems logical, other than me picking poorly.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
The other thing for cash I was thinking about is if Cam or Watson are the better plays (to a lesser extent Bortles) because with their rushing yards you are basically being spotted a passing TD with their built in 4-5pt floor.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
The good and bad of trying to mostly fade the TNF game in the Thurs-Mon slate.  Some decent scores from the people who loaded up on the game, but at least I have 3 of my 6 LUs in the gpp with Barkley.  He's the only one I bothered to roster from the game.  Now, what to do with the rest of those rosters...

 

Zyphros

Footballguy
I swapped Reynolds for DJ Moore in most of my cash lineups.  It makes me uncomfortable, I'll be looking to tinker with it tomorrow a good bit probably.  

My guess is I'll have to get off Brady, but cheap QB's have screwed me in the past so that's an uncomfortable route as well for me.  Maybe I'll get off Landry for Edelman or off Brady for Cam and plug in Godwin instead, but I haven't checked prices too much yet but that would save ~500 for a different guy than Reynolds.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
I swapped Reynolds for DJ Moore in most of my cash lineups.  It makes me uncomfortable, I'll be looking to tinker with it tomorrow a good bit probably.  

My guess is I'll have to get off Brady, but cheap QB's have screwed me in the past so that's an uncomfortable route as well for me.  Maybe I'll get off Landry for Edelman or off Brady for Cam and plug in Godwin instead, but I haven't checked prices too much yet but that would save ~500 for a different guy than Reynolds.  
Since it looks like all the WRs are back, I was looking at Goff but I also just saw that it might actually snow in Denver this weekend. 

ETA:  also, if Olsen is back, the targets for Moore might be drying up too.  

 
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TripItUp

Footballguy
Here's my current lineup for 50/50s (Sunday Only)

Winston

Mixon

Hyde

Julio

AJ Green

Fitzgerald

Hooper

Lindsay

Bears D

 
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arctic_panzer_wolf

Footballguy
I haven't played Dfs in awhile, checked on DraftKings and I had about $50 on there.  Made a gpp lineup and then saw I had a lot of the players you mentioned.

Mayfield

Coleman 

Ekeler-Powell could be a better option, but would have to play Dallas at D

Brown

Hopkins

Jones

Njoku

Callaway-Thinking of maybe changing this to Duke @$3600 with Higgins and now Willies out

Ravens

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
I haven't played Dfs in awhile, checked on DraftKings and I had about $50 on there.  Made a gpp lineup and then saw I had a lot of the players you mentioned.

Mayfield

Coleman 

Ekeler-Powell could be a better option, but would have to play Dallas at D

Brown

Hopkins

Jones

Njoku

Callaway-Thinking of maybe changing this to Duke @$3600 with Higgins and now Willies out

Ravens
Interesting gpp lu with the 3 stud WRs.  I was putting together a similar build this morning too.  

 

Raging weasel

Footballguy
Here's my current lineup for 50/50s (Sunday Only)

Winston

Mixon

Hyde

Julio

AJ Green

Fitzgerald

Hooper

Lindsay

Bears D
No way I'd play Fitz in any kind of cash lineup right now. Gabriel, Rogers and Godwin all same price or less with higher floor and ceiling imo. Do like the Mixon,Green and Julio calls tho.

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
No way I'd play Fitz in any kind of cash lineup right now. Gabriel, Rogers and Godwin all same price or less with higher floor and ceiling imo. Do like the Mixon,Green and Julio calls tho.
I agree with this- seems a tad risky in cash, but I do like the core.   I would personally look at Rogers and Powell/Carson instead of Fitz and Lindsay, but to be fair - I haven't exactly been nailing my cash LUs lately either.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Struggling with my main/cash LU and decisions of which stud WR to go with.  This is what I am staring at right now:

Ryan

Gurley/Yeldon/Carson

Evans/Sanu/Rogers

Griffin

Cinci

I like most of it.  Trying to use players from my usage lists.  I have 100 left over, so if Crowell is out, a pivot to Powell can be done.  I stared at it, but decided on going Evans over Julio.  I think TB has a more focused O, and Evans has put up more consistent point on the year than Julio.  I also could see a scenario of Atl getting TDs from 2-3 other players, being up by 20+pts early and TB having to sling it than the other way around.  Griffin is min price and has seen 8 RZ targets on the season, so I went with him as a home team option with a better Vegas total over RS-J.  Cinci is a home D, and maybe Ben will do Ben road game things.  

What I am currently debating is:

1.  Keep with what I have

2.  Winston/J.Brown instead of Ryan/Rogers

3.  McCaffrey/Landry/cheaper D  instead of Gurley/Rogers/Cinci   

ETA:  Right now I am leaning #3.  

 
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TripItUp

Footballguy
I agree with this- seems a tad risky in cash, but I do like the core.   I would personally look at Rogers and Powell/Carson instead of Fitz and Lindsay, but to be fair - I haven't exactly been nailing my cash LUs lately either.  
yeah, I've been looking at other value WR options and may swap that out. 

 

SaturneParis

Footballguy
Cash game. Sun-Mon games. I really wanted to fit in Gurley into my lineup. Having trouble filling in the other RB spots to be honest. There are so many guys I like. Alfred Blue if Lamar Miller sits, Sony Michel, Powell, Philip Lindsay. Hell maybe even Aaron Jones against the 49ers. 

Mayfield

Yeldon/Gurley

Chester Rogers/Keke Coutee/Julio

Njoku

Chris Carson

Colts Def

 
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Raging weasel

Footballguy
Looks like another day of the chalk being chalk. Howard and Mixon sucking killed some lineups but hopefully can still make a couple $$$

 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
Was in the top 50 for a hot minute with one of my Gordon teams and then dropped out. 

My best team ended up being

Trubisky, Cohen, Gordon, Hopkins, Jones, Kupp, Hooper, Brate, Seahawks.

Good but not great.

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Glad some people are doing well.  I honestly think I had about 24 LUs out there today, and didn't cash a single one.    

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
:lol:   I have a Thurs - Mon LU with Gordon and Barkley in it that only scored 102pts.  So got about 20 combined pts from Car D, Houston stack, and J.Brown.  

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Just saw that a 2TE LU scored 240pts and took down a gpp I was in:

Ryan - Gurley/Gordon - Julio/C.Rogers/Beasley - Uzomah/Hooper - Balt.  

 
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