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Dustin Keller (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
difficult to see how this trade would help keller so i will say it hurts. one more legit wr to take targets
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
I think Keller will be less involved in the passing game after this deal.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Hurts him for 2010, but long term it is a push. Can't see them keeping all 3 WRs long term. A team with Cotchery and Holmes sounds like a good opportunity for a TE.
As decent as the numbers Keller had when Cotchery missed two games last year?
vs Bills 2 rec 16 yards
at Raiders 1 rec 26 yards
Keller wouldn't be in line for the passes Holmes will get, the only difference i see is a few less passes Kellers way overall possibly. Keller is more likely to get short, outlet, move the chains stuff. He only caught 9 (of 45 total) passes for over 20 yards, and 4 of them were 3rd or 4th down and that doesn't necessarily mean he caught the ball that far.
My point isn't that Holmes won't catch short stuff, but rather Keller doesn't break out wide like a WR or run deep routes. So Alot of what Holmes brings to the table doesn't take away from what Keller's role is.
Who hurt Keller's value this offseason is LT...similar "safe" passes will go to him that Keller could of got (assuming LT has a regular role).
My point isn't that Holmes won't catch short stuff, but rather Keller doesn't break out wide like a WR or run deep routes. So Alot of what Holmes brings to the table doesn't take away from what Keller's role is.
Who hurt Keller's value this offseason is LT...similar "safe" passes will go to him that Keller could of got (assuming LT has a regular role).
I like the move for Keller. Not so for Braylon Edwards and to a lesser extent Cotchery. Falcons brought in a big time receiving threat in Tony Gonzalez last offseason and it did very little for Roddy White's numbers. Gonzalez' was clearly not the focus of the offense he was in KC and his numbers were down though so maybe you have a point. Witten and Gates numbers were down with the emergence of Austin and improvement from Jackson. Shockey's numbers in NOLA are nothing like they were in NYG, even when he was a number 2 to Plax. Yeah, I think I've convinced myself this is a bad move for Keller. I'm changing my vote.
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
Keller basically sucked it up last year... maybe this will allow him to get more open, be more of a threat. Otherwise it's just more of the same unrealized "potential".
gianmarco
Footballguy
:X Basically how I see it as well.
doowain
Footballguy
Why do we automatically assume that a WR will take away targets from a TE? I don't think this negatively affects him at all. At worst it's a push for 2009 IMO.
First of all, let's look at the pass/run split for the Jets last year. They were 32nd in the league in pass attempts and 1st in rush attempts at a 39/61 split respectively.
If anything, I think the addition of Holmes and the release of Thomas Jones means they want to become a more balanced offense. Their strength will still be the run with that ridiculous offensive line. And while there are more mouths to feed, I think there will now be an uptick in balls to go around. Mark Sanchez is entering his 2nd year and should be more comfortable. I could realistically see a 55/45 run-pass split, with the possibility of closer to a true 50/50. Assuming the number of plays doesn't variate much, that's an extra 60 pass attempts.
I think we also need to ask ourselves whose job Holmes takes. That's the player most affected by this. He's not gonna take Keller's job clearly. Edwards is best suited outside, as is Holmes, so I think Cotch slips into the slot (his true position IMO) and is the odd man out. Maybe Chase can chime in here....how often did the Jets go 3 wide last year? I'd venture to say it wasn't very often.
Targets from 2009
Cotchery - 96
Edwards - 96 (pro-rated)
Keller - 82
Other - 119
That's fairly balanced. Clearly Sanchez doesn't lock on to any one WR. I don't see how Holmes coming in will make that change. And I really don't think we can discount the chemistry/familiarity a young QB builds with WR/TEs. He's going to feel more comfortable with the guys he knows IMO. And if anyone saw the games against Cincy in Week 17 and in the playoffs, Keller was featured in the offense and responded in a big way. He showed a very good rapport with Sanchez and I saw that as a sign of things to come this year. Of course Holmes clouds that a bit for some.
Personally, given Sanchez's ability to spread it around, the uptick I see coming in pass attempts, and the pushing of Cotch to the slot, I see a slight drop in targets for Edwards, a considerable drop for Cotch, no change for Keller, and a big hit to Holmes (138 targets last year).
My prediction would be:
Targets:
Holmes - 100
Edwards - 85
Keller - 80
Cotch - 70
Other - 110
That would come out to 445 attempts (52 more than last year).
Keller's value remains unchanged this year and, as another poster said, I don't see all 3 WRs being there next year, so I think Keller's production rises as a result. Unfortunately, I think we're gonna have to wait another year for him to truly break out.
First of all, let's look at the pass/run split for the Jets last year. They were 32nd in the league in pass attempts and 1st in rush attempts at a 39/61 split respectively.
If anything, I think the addition of Holmes and the release of Thomas Jones means they want to become a more balanced offense. Their strength will still be the run with that ridiculous offensive line. And while there are more mouths to feed, I think there will now be an uptick in balls to go around. Mark Sanchez is entering his 2nd year and should be more comfortable. I could realistically see a 55/45 run-pass split, with the possibility of closer to a true 50/50. Assuming the number of plays doesn't variate much, that's an extra 60 pass attempts.
I think we also need to ask ourselves whose job Holmes takes. That's the player most affected by this. He's not gonna take Keller's job clearly. Edwards is best suited outside, as is Holmes, so I think Cotch slips into the slot (his true position IMO) and is the odd man out. Maybe Chase can chime in here....how often did the Jets go 3 wide last year? I'd venture to say it wasn't very often.
Targets from 2009
Cotchery - 96
Edwards - 96 (pro-rated)
Keller - 82
Other - 119
That's fairly balanced. Clearly Sanchez doesn't lock on to any one WR. I don't see how Holmes coming in will make that change. And I really don't think we can discount the chemistry/familiarity a young QB builds with WR/TEs. He's going to feel more comfortable with the guys he knows IMO. And if anyone saw the games against Cincy in Week 17 and in the playoffs, Keller was featured in the offense and responded in a big way. He showed a very good rapport with Sanchez and I saw that as a sign of things to come this year. Of course Holmes clouds that a bit for some.
Personally, given Sanchez's ability to spread it around, the uptick I see coming in pass attempts, and the pushing of Cotch to the slot, I see a slight drop in targets for Edwards, a considerable drop for Cotch, no change for Keller, and a big hit to Holmes (138 targets last year).
My prediction would be:
Targets:
Holmes - 100
Edwards - 85
Keller - 80
Cotch - 70
Other - 110
That would come out to 445 attempts (52 more than last year).
Keller's value remains unchanged this year and, as another poster said, I don't see all 3 WRs being there next year, so I think Keller's production rises as a result. Unfortunately, I think we're gonna have to wait another year for him to truly break out.
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doowain
Footballguy
Actually, Gates posted a career best in yards last year and Witten had his 2nd best season ever for reception/yards. Witten's TDs were down, but I don't think that's because of Austin. TO caught a lot of TDs as well and that didn't prevent Witten from scoring himself. I think last year was an aberration.And, FWIW, Shockey was never very good anyway. He's only ever topped 670 yards twice and never had more than 900.
Shutout
Footballguy
I guess I am in the minority here and think this helps Keller and it will be noticeable. The philosophy of this team will dictate a lot but when you have guys like Edwards and Holmes that will demand coverage deeper down the field, I think this could potentially open up Keller on almost any play and when teams are committing to stop the run as they MUST, I can see Keller being a nice PPR option.
I think he could be the type that looks similar to Tony gonzalez now in Atlanta, having 5-7 catches with most of them being very intermediate range, but having that occasional one that is right down the seam for 20-35 yards. That won't be consistent from week to week, but I think he becomes the ideal backup TE in a PPR and it will probably help his career/confidence. He should be making some easy plays with all the coverage demanded by his teammates and with a little time as Sanchez develops, maybe by next year he becomes a top 12 or so TE. I think there is a lot to be said ( and not overlooked) about a young QB that can use a TE as a safety blanket and when I think of how open Keller should be now, I want to think that this will boost the teamplay between Sanchez and Keller.
I think he could be the type that looks similar to Tony gonzalez now in Atlanta, having 5-7 catches with most of them being very intermediate range, but having that occasional one that is right down the seam for 20-35 yards. That won't be consistent from week to week, but I think he becomes the ideal backup TE in a PPR and it will probably help his career/confidence. He should be making some easy plays with all the coverage demanded by his teammates and with a little time as Sanchez develops, maybe by next year he becomes a top 12 or so TE. I think there is a lot to be said ( and not overlooked) about a young QB that can use a TE as a safety blanket and when I think of how open Keller should be now, I want to think that this will boost the teamplay between Sanchez and Keller.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Important works here are "Dynasty outlook". Voted no change. I expect Holmes might only play 12 games for NY. A 5th round pick is what you pay if you are renting a player for 1 year. There are no guarantees that NY will give him a new contract in the future.
So you're saying the Jets would have traded a higher draft pick if they wanted to keep Holmes long-term? What, the Steelers called up and asked if they'd give a 5th for Holmes, and Jets brass would have said "no way, we want to keep Holmes around for a while" and then countered with a 2nd rounder?A 5th round pick is what you pay if that's the least you could pay to acquire a player you want to acquire. The acquisition cost says absolutely nothing about Holmes' long-term future with the team.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I guess what I am saying is Holmes doesn't perform up to standards or simply wants too much money the Jets will let him walk. They are not going to be too upset about giving up a 5th. The Eagles gave up a 4th and a LB to acquire Donte Stallworth and only kept him one year. It was probably good move since Stallworth like Holmes was a player that always seemed to find trouble. Holmes is dirt cheap this year but next year he will demand a huge signing bonus. How much money would you invest in a player that could be suspended indefinitely if he smokes pot again?
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DenverBroncos
Footballguy
Honestly, how could it help? Sanchez is in a system that rarely throws and now Keller has to compete with Braylon, Cotchery and now Holmes for very limited passes. Couple this with the fact that Washington is back and will catch plenty of passes and Keller is barely, if even startable for fantasy purposes.
Only fantasy football beneficaries of this trade is 1) Mike Wallace; and 2) Mark Sanchez.
Only fantasy football beneficaries of this trade is 1) Mike Wallace; and 2) Mark Sanchez.
cstu
Footballguy
Should be interesting what the Jets do since Holmes and Edwards are in the last year of their contract and I believe Cotchery is a UFA after 2011.
cstu
Footballguy
Of course it does because the acquisition cost is based on the player's contract. If Holmes was in the 2nd year of his rookie contract then he'd be worth a lot more than he is now.
But the fact that the Jets got him for a 5th rounder doesn't indicate that they're unlikely to resign him. It only indicates that a 5th rounder was all it took to get him.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I think this kills Keller's value. He was in on almost every set before, and the Jets ran a bunch of 2-TE sets because Keller's not a great blocker. They're obviously going to run some 3-WR sets this year, and Keller's unlikely to be on the field for a lot of those (Richardson/Hartsock will be, instead). In 3-WR sets before, Keller was often split wide, but there's no point in doing that now. He'll obviously still play in 2-WR sets and 2-TE sets, but I think he's going to be in on fewer plays in '09 and he's going to have to compete with a much better WR for passes.
Sell.
Sell.
doowain
Footballguy
Sell in DYNASTY? When, after 2010, Edwards and Holmes will both be Free Agents and Cotchery will have only one year left on his deal (and could realistically be released with a 2.3 mil cap savings).I could understand being leery in redraft, but this is a dynasty value thread. If you sell, you'll be selling way low. Unless you enjoy getting minimal value for a player and hating yourself in a year, DON'T SELL.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
As always, it depends on what the value is. If you can find someone to trade for Keller as if the Holmes trade didn't happen, then you're not selling low. And I think it wouldn't be too hard to buy Keller next year. I think you could probably buy Keller next year -- following an unimpressive 2010 but after Holmes or Edwards leaves -- for less than you can get for him right now. But yes, my comments were more directed towards 2010. I do agree that Keller's long-term outlook is good, but it's definitely not as good as it used to be (there's a chance Holmes signs a long-term deal in NY).
doowain
Footballguy
There you go. Thanks for explaining yourself better. You said to "Sell." but left out the important caveat that you should only sell if you get dynasty value for him and not redraft value given the Holmes trade.
massraider
Footballguy
I am gonna hold, because I think there's a chance that he's the most consistent week-in-and-week out target for Sanchez.I still can't get that Jets offense out of my head last year, and it's a long way to go for me to picture them whipping it around the field. I think Ryan is still gonna wanna run the ball, and win with D. I could see a scenario where Keller finishes 2nd in catches, and the receivers take turns having the big day.
