[DYNASTY] - 1.02 rookie pick in '07 (1 Viewer)

[JayMan]

From this poll - we need to look at the 1.02 pick in [DYNASTY] drafts...

Adrian Peterson is clearly the 1.01 pick... as shown in the poll above...

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Let's assume that Marshawn Lynch and Calvin Johnson declare for the draft... not the biggest prediction here!

Let's assume also that you don't pick based on your needs (we don't need to know that you have 14 RBs and no WRs - and this is why you would pick Johnson)... let's look at their future NFL career...

I know that Ted Ginn Jr / Dwayne Jarrett / Sidney Rice are great prospects at WRs... but I don't think anyone can argue that given the chance to pick Johnson in front of the other WRs - you would have to go with Calvin...

I have added the "other" option for the sake of the discussion - if you would prefer someone else - tell us why...

With that in mind - and knowing that usually RBs are kings (except for a few members that prefer the longevity of the WRs instead of the RBs)... I wanted to know if Calvin Johnson's tremendous talent would make you hesitate in picking Lynch over him...

Let's dicsuss...

 

[wannabee]

I went Johnson. It is not as though I am down on Lynch, just that Johnson is more of a "can't miss" and Lynch does have question marks.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

PPR, start 3 WR, 2 RB, no flex - Johnson

otherwise, Lynch.

edit to add: in reality, it would come down to the makeup of the team I am drafting for. It's that close.

 

[JayMan]

PPR, start 3 WR, 2 RB, no flex - Johnsonotherwise, Lynch.

Sorry - good point... let's assume FBG scoring and standard rosters (1/2/3/1)... thus, one vote for Lynch...

 

[King of the Jungle]

I am not big on this draft class as a whole. I would go Johnson for fear Lynch (5-11, 217) is another JJ Arrington (5-9, 218). I may be way off, due to the fact I do not watch college football religiously.

 

[fsufan]

what about K. Irons

 

[JayMan]

what about K. Irons

I'm guessing that he fits the RB3 role... with Michael Bush looming also... RB3/RB4...You would rank him in front of Lynch? - just asking...

 

[aposulli]

If you do any future polls, please include a couple more players.

The top Juniors and Senior fantasy prospects I'd say are Irons, Lynch, C.Johnson, M.Bush in that order. There is a significant gap after that, but all of these guys should be included on the initial poll, or at least, the next one.

 

[coolnerd]

Ignoring factors outside of raw talent, I would take Calvin Johnson 2nd over Lynch.

Johnson has the complete physical package and dominates despite being in a rather conservative offense and quite franking a below average passer throwing to him.

Lynch is definately NOT JJ Arrington. He is a strong inside runner who still has the speed and quickness to run outside. Very physical runner.

Kenny Irons does not seem to have any special physical talent and has not been that productive early. Honestly, I think that his fantasy draft spot will be influenced heavily by where he goes in term of situation. It would not surprise me to see him fall out the fantasy top 5.

 

[broncofan13000]

I went CJ, but depending on what team drafts Lynch, i may change my mind. But the chance to have Calvin Johnson locked up for the next decade is

 

[EBF]

Johnson wins in a walk. He warrants consideration at 1.01.

 

[coolnerd]

For those who are too busy on the weekend for college football, Auburn plays South Carolina tonight at 6:30 central on ESPN

Your chance to look at Kenny Irons for yourself as well as Sydney Rice who is a draft eligible spohomore WR who could go in the first round of the NFL draft if he declares.

 

[-OZ-]

For those who are too busy on the weekend for college football, Auburn plays South Carolina tonight at 6:30 central on ESPNYour chance to look at Kenny Irons for yourself as well as Sydney Rice who is a draft eligible spohomore WR who could go in the first round of the NFL draft if he declares.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Kenny Irons could go three in many drafts. I am not saying he should, but he will. Look back to 2004. Many rookie drafts went some combination of Kevin Jones, Steven Jackson, Julius Jones, Tatum Bell and then Larry Fitzgerald.

In 2005, J. J Arrinton went before Braylon Edwards in most drafts.

If rb's go into good situations and there are drafted in round 1 or 2, running back mania will sweep many drafts as it always does.

 

[Football Jones]

Kenny Irons could go three in many drafts. I am not saying he should, but he will. Look back to 2004. Many rookie drafts went some combination of Kevin Jones, Steven Jackson, Julius Jones, Tatum Bell and then Larry Fitzgerald. In 2005, J. J Arrinton went before Braylon Edwards in most drafts.If rb's go into good situations and there are drafted in round 1 or 2, running back mania will sweep many drafts as it always does.

I'm not so sure, but you may very well be right. The year that Charles Rogers & Andre Johnson came out, they went in the top few picks in many dynasty leagues. If I needed a WR in a dynasty league & had the 1st pick in '07, I'd probably trade down & take Johnson if he comes out (as things stand right now). I'd definitely take Johnson @ 2.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Kenny Irons could go three in many drafts. I am not saying he should, but he will. Look back to 2004. Many rookie drafts went some combination of Kevin Jones, Steven Jackson, Julius Jones, Tatum Bell and then Larry Fitzgerald. In 2005, J. J Arrinton went before Braylon Edwards in most drafts.If rb's go into good situations and there are drafted in round 1 or 2, running back mania will sweep many drafts as it always does.

I'm not so sure, but you may very well be right. The year that Charles Rogers & Andre Johnson came out, they went in the top few picks in many dynasty leagues. If I needed a WR in a dynasty league & had the 1st pick in '07, I'd probably trade down & take Johnson if he comes out (as things stands right now). I'd definitely take Johnson @ 2.

That year Willis had a knee injury and was behind henry and LJ was a one year wonder rb from Penn State behind Priest Holmes. Those are not good situations.Edit: Again, I am not saying Johnson shouldn't go second. I just think in most drafts, he will not go until #3 or 4 at the earliest.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm usually mister RB in rookie drafts, but I think I would go Calvin given the choice at 1.02. Lynch just seems like your standard run-of-the-mill good dynasty RB prospect. I don't think he's at the same level as guys like R. Brown, Caddy, Bush, Maroney who came out recently whereas I can't think of another WR prospect in the last decade or so outside of Fitz that appeared more can't miss than Calvin does. Lynch could be great for a few years, could be a total bust, could be just ok...but with Calvin I think you're going to wind up with 8-10 years of double digit (or close to it) TD seasons.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I'm usually mister RB in rookie drafts, but I think I would go Calvin given the choice at 1.02. Lynch just seems like your standard run-of-the-mill good dynasty RB prospect. I don't think he's at the same level as guys like R. Brown, Caddy, Bush, Maroney who came out recently whereas I can't think of another WR prospect in the last decade or so outside of Fitz that appeared more can't miss than Calvin does. Lynch could be great for a few years, could be a total bust, could be just ok...but with Calvin I think you're going to wind up with 8-10 years of double digit (or close to it) TD seasons.

You have a short memory. People thought Charlie Rogers was pretty can't miss. Many thought AJ was can't miss. Many teams drafted those guys before LJ and Willis.

 

[EBF]

I'm usually mister RB in rookie drafts, but I think I would go Calvin given the choice at 1.02. Lynch just seems like your standard run-of-the-mill good dynasty RB prospect. I don't think he's at the same level as guys like R. Brown, Caddy, Bush, Maroney who came out recently whereas I can't think of another WR prospect in the last decade or so outside of Fitz that appeared more can't miss than Calvin does. Lynch could be great for a few years, could be a total bust, could be just ok...but with Calvin I think you're going to wind up with 8-10 years of double digit (or close to it) TD seasons.

You have a short memory. People thought Charlie Rogers was pretty can't miss. Many thought AJ was can't miss. Many teams drafted those guys before LJ and Willis.

Rogers was a great prospect. Dude had talent, but he smoked himself out of the league. A more tragic R. Jay Soward. Other recent top WRs have worked out relatively well. Fitzgerald and Holt are studs. Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, Donte Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Andre Johnson, and Troy Williamson are all useful FF players. Mike Clayton, Lelie, and K-Rob each had at least one decent season. Only David Terrell, Peter Warrick, and Travis Taylor are major busts. I'd say Warrick was easy to see coming. He had poor size and mediocre speed. Only David Terrell and Charles Rogers are shocking busts. Of those two, one of them had serious character/drug issues. I don't think Calvin Johnson has any of those drug issues and, in terms of talent, I'd say he's the best WR prospect since Fitz. I would gladly take him over a second tier RB like Lynch and I'm very much a Pac-10 homer. I really think the best strategy is generally to take the best talent. Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson are the two surest things in this crop. After that, I'd say Dwayne Jarrett is third. Then I'd start to look at guys like Irons, Rice, Ginn, Lynch, and Bush.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Lynch.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I don't think Calvin Johnson has any of those drug issues and, in terms of talent, I'd say he's the best WR prospect since Fitz. I would gladly take him over a second tier RB like Lynch and I'm very much a Pac-10 homer. I really think the best strategy is generally to take the best talent. Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson are the two surest things in this crop. After that, I'd say Dwayne Jarrett is third. Then I'd start to look at guys like Irons, Rice, Ginn, Lynch, and Bush.

I on't disagree with your premise in general. I have been a fan of Calvin Johnson since the fall of 05 when I lived in Georgia for a while. However, saying Johnson is the best prospect since Fitz is saying he is the best prospect in two years. That is no big deal. But if he is not Fitz like, he is not worth the #2 pick.He needs to be a constant top 15 wr to be worth a #2 dynasty pick, because there isn't much separation between 16 and 25. You can build around Fitz and his 1300 and 10. You can't build around a guy who puts up 1200 and 5. That is supplemental. Guys with the #2 pick, more often than not, are hoping for the next big thing at rb.When drafts are posted next year, some rb will gather hype and steam and pass Johnson. I will bet that he goes three or later more often than not.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I'd say Dwayne Jarrett is third.

I thought these Jarrett comments might interest you.

 

[EBF]

I'd say Dwayne Jarrett is third.

I thought these Jarrett comments might interest you.

Attitude concerns are a serious problem if they're warranted, but I don't care about the speed issue. The best comparison for Jarrett is Plaxico Burress, whose neither a burner nor a particularly sure-handed receiver. He still has a whole lot of value.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm usually mister RB in rookie drafts, but I think I would go Calvin given the choice at 1.02. Lynch just seems like your standard run-of-the-mill good dynasty RB prospect. I don't think he's at the same level as guys like R. Brown, Caddy, Bush, Maroney who came out recently whereas I can't think of another WR prospect in the last decade or so outside of Fitz that appeared more can't miss than Calvin does. Lynch could be great for a few years, could be a total bust, could be just ok...but with Calvin I think you're going to wind up with 8-10 years of double digit (or close to it) TD seasons.

You have a short memory. People thought Charlie Rogers was pretty can't miss. Many thought AJ was can't miss. Many teams drafted those guys before LJ and Willis.

LJ was drafted into a back-up role behind a guy who many thought was one of the league's best RBs at the time, and Mcgahee was drafted behind another top RB AND was coming off a major, major knee surgery and was unlikely to play year 1, so it's not really saying much at all that Rogers/AJ were often drafted ahead of these guys.I certainly remember when Rogers and AJ came out, it wasn't that long ago, but neither were like Calvin Johnson. People have been talking about Calvin Johnson as a pro prospect since long before this year started, much like they were with Fitzgerald. People have known Calvin was a top 5 pick in the NFL draft since he was a freshman, just like they did with Fitzgerald. Neither AJ nor Rogers had nearly that kind of hype that early in their careers, and were more guys who emerged more all of the sudden, and I don't really recall "can't miss" being used in regards to them nearly as much.

 

[EBF]

I don't think Calvin Johnson has any of those drug issues and, in terms of talent, I'd say he's the best WR prospect since Fitz. I would gladly take him over a second tier RB like Lynch and I'm very much a Pac-10 homer. I really think the best strategy is generally to take the best talent. Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson are the two surest things in this crop. After that, I'd say Dwayne Jarrett is third. Then I'd start to look at guys like Irons, Rice, Ginn, Lynch, and Bush.

I on't disagree with your premise in general. I have been a fan of Calvin Johnson since the fall of 05 when I lived in Georgia for a while. However, saying Johnson is the best prospect since Fitz is saying he is the best prospect in two years. That is no big deal. But if he is not Fitz like, he is not worth the #2 pick.He needs to be a constant top 15 wr to be worth a #2 dynasty pick, because there isn't much separation between 16 and 25. You can build around Fitz and his 1300 and 10. You can't build around a guy who puts up 1200 and 5. That is supplemental. Guys with the #2 pick, more often than not, are hoping for the next big thing at rb.When drafts are posted next year, some rb will gather hype and steam and pass Johnson. I will bet that he goes three or later more often than not.

Keep in mind that scoring system is a major consideration. In a Zealots or Misfits league, great RBs are much more valuable than great WRs. In a PPR league, it's very even. A guy like Fitz will outscore a guy like Rudi or Portis. I think the key point that I'm making is that I'd rather have a great WR prospect than a good RB prospect in most leagues. Take the player with the best chance to become a significant contributor for your squad. Lynch and Irons are good RB prospect, but they're not any better than the 3-5 top RBs who come out every year. Johnson is a somewhat more rare talent.

 

[jurb26]

Johnson will not even be the best WR in this class. Take Lynch. RBs are MUCH harder to come by, especially in a draft with at least 4 blue chip WRs coming out.

 

[broncofan13000]

Johnson will not even be the best WR in this class. Take Lynch. RBs are MUCH harder to come by, especially in a draft with at least 4 blue chip WRs coming out.

That's news to me. Care to elaborate?

 

[jurb26]

Johnson will not even be the best WR in this class. Take Lynch. RBs are MUCH harder to come by, especially in a draft with at least 4 blue chip WRs coming out.

That's news to me. Care to elaborate?

Ted Ginn. He has really matured as a WR this year. With his speed and quickness, I think he'll be better.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Johnson will not even be the best WR in this class. Take Lynch. RBs are MUCH harder to come by, especially in a draft with at least 4 blue chip WRs coming out.

Ted Ginn = Speed

 

[EBF]

Johnson will not even be the best WR in this class. Take Lynch. RBs are MUCH harder to come by, especially in a draft with at least 4 blue chip WRs coming out.

That's news to me. Care to elaborate?

Ted Ginn. He has really matured as a WR this year. With his speed and quickness, I think he'll be better.

Also a very good prospect, but definitely a riskier pick at this point. CJ is a safe pick. He naturally has great hands and body control, which are two very important qualities for a WR.

 

[coolnerd]

Johnson will not even be the best WR in this class. Take Lynch. RBs are MUCH harder to come by, especially in a draft with at least 4 blue chip WRs coming out.

But in all liklihood you are only going to get a chance to get one elite player in most drafts. Especially in leagues where WRs score pretty equally to RBs does it really make sense pass up what maybe an elite talent with lower downside for an ok RB prospect? Ultimately, does your team bocome better chasing the handful of elite RBs or building a team around WR production instead.

 

[Gandalf]

It's close, but in my league, it would be Lynch because we start 3 RBs and they are scarce. As a Lynch owner, I think he'll be special. He's a much better RB than JJ Arrington with great size/speed, quickness and vision. Plus, he's a good leader and shouldn't have off field issues. Everything else being equal (non league) I would also go with Lynch, but it'd obviously be even closer.

I really like Johnson as well. He's going to be solid, though so much depends on who is throwing to the rookie WRs. Still he's one talented kid.

 

[majstro]

It's amazing how one bad game has knocked Brady Quinn from everyone's radar. There were 32 posts before mine and he was not mentioned once. Back in August, he was the next Peyton Manning and probably considered for the number two dynasty pick by a lot of people.

If he finished the season strong and has a good combine and workout and ends up on a team like Detroit with Martz and Roy Williams or Houston with Kubiak and Andre Johnson, he could be the number two pick in dynasty drafts.

 

[broncofan13000]

It's amazing how one bad game has knocked Brady Quinn from everyone's radar. There were 32 posts before mine and he was not mentioned once. Back in August, he was the next Peyton Manning and probably considered for the number two dynasty pick by a lot of people.If he finished the season strong and has a good combine and workout and ends up on a team like Detroit with Martz and Roy Williams or Houston with Kubiak and Andre Johnson, he could be the number two pick in dynasty drafts.

Quinn should be on people's radar, but it would be tough to select a QB at #2 imho

 

[yellowdog]

Johnson will not even be the best WR in this class. Take Lynch. RBs are MUCH harder to come by, especially in a draft with at least 4 blue chip WRs coming out.

That's news to me. Care to elaborate?

Ted Ginn. He has really matured as a WR this year. With his speed and quickness, I think he'll be better.

Calvin Johnson>>>>>>Ted Ginn.

 

[JAA]

what about K. Irons

I'm guessing that he fits the RB3 role... with Michael Bush looming also... RB3/RB4...You would rank him in front of Lynch? - just asking...

I would be willing to get Bush gets a medical redshirt this year and comes back for another year. Not to win something, but to bring back up his draft stock

 

[rabidfireweasel]

It's amazing how one bad game has knocked Brady Quinn from everyone's radar. There were 32 posts before mine and he was not mentioned once. Back in August, he was the next Peyton Manning and probably considered for the number two dynasty pick by a lot of people.If he finished the season strong and has a good combine and workout and ends up on a team like Detroit with Martz and Roy Williams or Houston with Kubiak and Andre Johnson, he could be the number two pick in dynasty drafts.

I don't think he was more highly regarded tha Leinart after Leinart destruction of Oklahoma and before his Senior year. Leinart went into the perfect situation in Arizona with Fitz and Boldin and he didn't go 2 in many drafts. QB's, unless you are in a start 2 league, rarely break into the top 4 of any dynasty draft that I seen.ck you can trade a top 2 dynasty pick for an extremely good proven QB.

 

[-OZ-]

Johnson will not even be the best WR in this class. Take Lynch. RBs are MUCH harder to come by, especially in a draft with at least 4 blue chip WRs coming out.

That's news to me. Care to elaborate?

Ted Ginn. He has really matured as a WR this year. With his speed and quickness, I think he'll be better.

Calvin Johnson>>>>>>Ted Ginn.

while I agree, I'd pick CJ before Ginn, it isn't that difficult to imagine Ginn being better in the long run. It will be a minority opinion, but it just might prove right.BTW, Sydney Rice ain't half bad either.

 

[-OZ-]

It's amazing how one bad game has knocked Brady Quinn from everyone's radar. There were 32 posts before mine and he was not mentioned once. Back in August, he was the next Peyton Manning and probably considered for the number two dynasty pick by a lot of people.If he finished the season strong and has a good combine and workout and ends up on a team like Detroit with Martz and Roy Williams or Houston with Kubiak and Andre Johnson, he could be the number two pick in dynasty drafts.

I like Quinn, I really do, despite disliking ND, but he should go that high only in 2 QB start leagues.#5 perhaps, but AP, CJ, Lynch and Irons should go ahead of him no matter where he lands. Leinart headed to a dream location and wasn't top 3 in most drafts.

 

[Sigfawn]

Johnson will not even be the best WR in this class. Take Lynch. RBs are MUCH harder to come by, especially in a draft with at least 4 blue chip WRs coming out.

That's news to me. Care to elaborate?

Ted Ginn. He has really matured as a WR this year. With his speed and quickness, I think he'll be better.

Calvin Johnson>>>>>>Ted Ginn.

while I agree, I'd pick CJ before Ginn, it isn't that difficult to imagine Ginn being better in the long run. It will be a minority opinion, but it just might prove right.BTW, Sydney Rice ain't half bad either.

I'm not sold on him at the NFL level. His, he's a converted DB. Yes he's improved as a WR. But a lot of his game is based on his speed. While he'll still be fast in the NFL, that will have less of an impact. Do we remember Reggie running for 500+ yards? Reversing field for 80+ yard TDs? How many of those has he had in the NFL? And I'm not even sure he's a better NFL WR vs DB. There will be teams that want Ginn to play DB. He's obviously a 1st round pick based on his talent. But FF wise, I don't see a lot of RZ looks for him (too small) where CJ is a "throw it up to him and he'll go get it" type WR. I also want to see Ginn get off the line on NFL press coverage (obviously with safety help). Does he have the SS drive/fire? When you talk undersized NFL WRs, you talk about heart. Everyone is fast, most are tall, everyone works hard.

And yes, I do think Ginn is undersized. He's closer to 165 then 180. He's closer to 5'11 then 6'1. But his combine work out will blow people away, so he's probably a lock for top 10. I just like CJs size, hands, and at this stage, he's lightyears beyond Ginn in terms of technique and WR skill.

I mean Chad Jackson, WR, Florida ran an unofficial 4.29 40-time. Tons of guys ran low 4.3s. Sure Ginn might run a mid 4.2. But that isn't going to make up for his lack of size. NFL DBs will see Ginn's cuts/routes 2-3 seconds before he makes his cut. The guy is extremely raw.

But yeah, he's fun to watch in college.

 

[jurb26]

But yeah, he's fun to watch in college.

You're right, he is. Given your last post, I don't think you have watched him in college this year however.