Ill be posting more detailed looks at each guy, 10 at a time, as time permits over the next few weeks/months. Rankings assume full IDP lineups with DE/DT and CB/S broken out and TE required.
couple more things about this list:
1) Ranking players across positions is tough, and there are some thick tiers on this list. in some cases, players 10 positions apart are still very close in relative value.
2) The needs of your team often dictate the value of players across position. By no means is this list absolute, and the rankings should change depending on the make up of your roster.
3) While I tried to keep tabs on these guys all year, Im sure i missed some developments. Please add anything you know that helps complete the picture when rating these guys including personal opinions or things that caught your eye watching them this year.
1. Cadillac Williams, RB, TB – Caddy came out of the gate roaring, only to be sidelined by a foot sprain mid-season. He finished games like a true feature back should and answered any questions about being able to handle a feature back load for an entire game consistently. He had a few off games coming off the injury because he lost his edge from top notch conditioning while hurt, but once he was able to get back to full speed, he looked exactly like the RB that had one of the best 3 game starts to a career of any RB in recent memory. He’s knocking on the door of the top 10 RBs. QB and OLine play will only improve in Tampa next year.
2. Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA – Ronnie showed that he was more than just a size/speed freak with no moves at RB, the knock some had on him before they saw him play for the Dolphins. Brown wore down a bit at the end of the year, but certainly looked like feature back material, breaking big runs. Many have the impression that Brown would flourish as a feature back, and he seems destined to get a shot soon. His value would explode with a trade of Ricky Williams. Not the immediate impact of Caddy, but he’s got a shot to be even with him in the future.
3. Cedric Benson, RB, CHI - Despite a rookie season that went about as badly as possible, Benson retained most of his dynasty value because he's a big young RB whose best years are ahead of him. I did like what I saw in his limited action when Jones was out – Benson looked like a rugged north-south runner, and that should produce great results behind a terrific OLine when Benson gets his shot – and the Bears have too much invested Benson to not see what he can do as a feature back. It may not happen until Thomas Jones is gone, but Benson will get his shot.
4. Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE – Edwards was injured during his breakout game. He seemed to really have Frye's trust, from the moment Frye hit him for a game winning TD on 4th down in the preseason. He would have been possibly 3rd pre-ACL tear. The injury will likely keep him out until October 2006 because he just had the surgery. I feel he is sure to settle in as a top 25 WR by 07 with top 10-15 upside.
5. Matt Jones, WR, JAX - Jones looked very raw and clearly has a lot of work to do learning the craft of the WR. Still, he flashed his ability to make impossible catches for 99% of the other WRs in the league, including uncanny hands for a guy who hadn’t played WR before, which happened to be attached to one of the best size/speed combo packages in the league. Sky's the limit.
6. Mark Clayton, WR, BAL - I almost put Clayton 4th, but I have been biased in his favor for a long time as a big XII watcher. Clayton really came on in December and showed the quicks and fundamentals that made me sure he would be an NFL success a while back. Baltimore's QB situation is muddled, but talent is the cream that rises to the top, and Clayton's got it.
7. Frank Gore, RB, SF - Congrats if you took the risk on Gore. Sure, durability issues loom, but its clear that this guy is going to die out on the football field, truly giving everything he has. Mike Nolan loves him and he could be the feature back in 06. Offseason surgery in both shoulders coming. Career may be short, but it will be bright.
8. Reggie Brown, WR, PHI - How quiet was this guy's rise in the 2nd half of the year? He went from a guy who barely saw the field before TO’s departure to the #1 WR in the offense in a matter of weeks. Brown should be the #2 WR at worst next year and is playing in a good passing offense. He showed the ability to get behind the defense and make the big play in addition to living up to his college reputation as a reliable WR.
9. Odell Thurman, LB, CIN - Thurman is one of two IDPs to become instant elites in his rookie year, the kind of guy that goes top 100 in initial drafts. He showed a knack for making big plays in coverage while being a tackling machine and is only going to get better. Marvin Lewis will make this kid a star.
10. Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA - The other IDP to join the elite in his rookie campaign, Tatupu vindicated a pick in the second by Seattle that many called a reach. The undersized MLB instantly became the leader of a formerly weak Seattle defense. Like Thurman, he's got a knack for the big play, in coverage, hitting, and rushing the QB. A godsend for Seattle.
11. Heath Miller, TE, PIT - Miller shone in his rookie year when asked to make plays. He scored a handful of Bubba Franks style 1 yd play action TDs, and became one of big ben's favorite targets over the middle. He was tough to bring down after the catch and his numbers should only improve next year. One caveat - Miller's blocking has been praised heavily and he might eventually suffer the fate of the last Steeler 1st round TE, Mark Bruener, who became more of a 3rd tackle type over time in the Steeler run first offense.
12. Mark Bradley, WR, CHI - Would have been top 10 right before his ACL tear. Like Edwards, got hurt right as he was breaking out. Bradley really seemed on the same page as Orton, but Grossman has re-emerged, and I don’t know if Grossman will lock on to Bradley like Orton did. Bradley looked so fluid and was able to consistently get open downfield. ACL surgery could take some of his top end speed away, which would hurt his value significantly. I still see him as a starter when healthy, and the heir to Muhammad in the #1 role.
13. Troy Williamson, WR, MIN - A somewhat disappointing rookie year for Troy, who found himself inactive for a few games. He did show the ability to make a lot happen after the catch, but appeared to have a long way to go as an everydown WR. He’s still a boom/bust guy in my eyes.
14. Mike Williams, WR, DET - Williams seemed to show the effects of a football layoff, and got caught in the vortex that is the Detroit offense. Charles Rogers should be gone and BMW should be able to beat out Scottie Vines in camp . The opportunity is there, but the QB situation is desperate in Detroit, and Mike did look more like an undersized TE than a WR at times.
15. J.J. Arrington, RB, ARI - Some might have a problem with this high of a ranking for a guy who clearly was a bust this year, but I think he's likely to be handed the job next year because Marcel Shipp was even worse, and Denny Green has already said he wanted to run more. The O Line has to get better next year. Arrington still has a chance at becoming a useful fantasy RB and opportunity at RB is a premium. Watch out for the possibility of Arizona drafting at RB.
16. Marion Barber, RB, DAL - Barber really made a splash when the door opened via a Julius Jones ankle injury and Tyson Thompson having too many mental errors for Tuna's liking. He showed great short yardage and goal line ability and looked like the kind of RB that can step in and produce like a #1 if asked to. I could justify putting him as many as 9 spots higher on this list based his potential at the all important RB position, but his opportunity is minimal for now with Julius Jones's resurgence late in the year.
17. Samkon Gado, RB, GB - You can't deny that Gado looked legit in his starts for Green Bay. He's gotta be in consideration for the feature back job next year. Gado came out of nowhere (well, ok the practice squad via KCs practice squad) and ran tough and patiently, not looking at all like a guy that couldnt even start at Liberty.
18. Cedric Houston, RB, NYJ – Houston’s fall to the 6th round baffled a lot of us that had him in the 2nd tier of RBs based on his size/speed package, but it ended up that he had a thyroid condition that kept teams from getting a good look at him. Houston has the physical package to be a legit NFL RB, and once the condition was diagnosed, the inconsistency that plagued him at Tennessee was explained. Houston was able to get an opportunity to start when Curtis Martin went down, and while he wasn’t dominant, he ran hard and often got yards after the first contact. He also showed some receiving skills. The Jets may bring in a top notch RB through the draft, but Houston has shown me enough to think he’ll get a look as a starter at some point in his career. A popular trade in mocks now has the Jets moving up to take Bush, so that could submarine Houston’s value.
19. Alex Smith, TE, TB – Smith had 2 TDs in his first NFL game and got more involved in the offense as the year went on. He had receptions of over 15 yards in 7 games, displaying the rare ability among TEs to do damage downfield. Smith’s role in the offense should only grow next year as he matures.
20. Ryan Moats, RB, PHI - Moats showed that he is a home run threat on any touch in his action after Brian Westbrook went down, but he also looked small and had trouble consistently getting solid gains on his carries. Westbrook is locked down long term, so Moats is relegated to backup duty for the foreseeable future. Still, if he toughens up a little, he has a chance to be a primary ballcarrier down the line.
21. Brandon Jones, WR, TEN - Jones is the 3rd WR on this list to tear his ACL on the verge of a breakout. He was the most impressive of the Tennessee rookie trio and passed Tyrone Calico on the depth chart very quickly. I don't like that Tennessee still has Drew Bennett and is running a passing offense featuring the TE. Before the ACL, Jones was probably in the 12-15 range.
22. Roddy White, WR, ATL - Roddy played better than some of the WR ahead of him on this list. He showed his big play ability and seemed ahead of schedule for a mid-major guy. Still, being in the Atlanta passing offense is a big strike against any WR, with a small pie of passing stats to split up, and Alge Crumpler occupying the #1 target role.
23. Charlie Frye, QB, CLE - Crennel won't give Frye the job yet, but you know that Frye will be the man based on his very solid play for a rookie this season. He led the team when he played and did not seem overwhelmed like a typical rookie. Frye will never be an elite fantasy QB, or maybe even a top 10 QB, but he's going to be a startable QB in 14-16 team leagues and that's great return for the picks he lasted to in most rookie drafts.
24. Chris Henry, WR, CIN Henry was probably close to cracking the top 15 on this list before his run-in with the law. This is exactly why the first round talent Henry fell to the late 3rd, and its discouraging that he would even take that kind of risk after he lost so much money on draft day because of his past misgivings. On the field, he showed the kind of talent that eventually gets a starting job, and maybe even a #1 role in a passing offense. The problem is that he could be destined for the Koren Robinson career path. Boom/bust prospect who is blocked by two excellent WR right now, both signed long term.
25. Eric Shelton, RB, CAR - Shelton didn't see the field and was put on IR despite not having a season ending injury. He needs to get his pad level lower and has been working on his own most of the year. Still, he will get to compete with Deshaun Foster or whomever else is in the Carolina backfield for a job next year with Stephen Davis likely out of the picture and has upside with nearly anyone on this list because of that opportunity.
26. Alex Smith, QB, SF – Smith was in contention with Terry Bradshaw for the ugliest rookie QB season ever until the last few weeks. He got hurt, had trouble holding on to the ball, and didn’t throw a TD until the final game of the season. He never really flashed anything that justified the first overall pick, or even a first round pick. Still, Smith was surrounded by weak talent at the skill positions and his line was decimated and sure to be better next year. Smith also showed incremental improvement over the course of the year. Too early to call him a bust, but his upside seems limited.
27. Derrick Johnson, LB, KC – Johnson was very active in his rookie year, with 80 solo tackles, but did not produce big plays at the rate he did back at Texas, with only 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. He made rookie mistakes and showed a need to improve his technique. Johnson did not have the gamechanging presence of Merriman, Tatupu or Thurman. Still, he figures to be a top tackler for years to come, and if the big plays increase, he could join the elite.
28. Shawne Merriman, LB, SD – From a pure gameplay standpoint, Merriman is top 5 on this list. He showed rare edge rushing ability and was a big reason why San Diego was able to end Indianapolis’s perfect season. He is going to be a terror for OTs and OCs in the NFL. From a fantasy standpoint, His upside is limited by playing the 3-4 OLB position. Merriman will have some huge multiple sack games, but the bread and butter of LBs – tackles – will be more sporadic. If your leagues weights sacks (3X or more points for a sack than a tackle), then Merriman shoots up the list. Otherwise, he’s a solid LB2/3 who will single-handedly help you win some weeks, and disappear in others.
29. Kyle Orton, QB, CHI Orton’s ranking has more to do with the limited upside of QB in Chicago’s offense than his play – although he was mediocre at best this year. However, when you consider that he was a 4th round rookie that was expected to be third string, mediocre play, valuable experience, and a winning record looks like a promising start to Orton’s career. Grossman may have recaptured his job, but Orton showed enough in his stint at starter to get another shot at starting eventually, even if it’s not in Chicago.
30. Jason Campbell, QB, WAS – Mark Brunell’s resurgence meant Campbell was completely under the radar this year. There has been a lack of strongly positive or negative news about his development, but Brunell looked more his age as the season went on, and as long as Campbell is ready to assume backup duty, Patrick Ramsey should be gone via trade to a QB poor team. Campbell has the raw materials to be a solid fantasy QB, but the Washington offense will be conservative as long as Joe Gibbs is there.
31. Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego – Jackson battled injuries and got minimal playing time, but he was considered a project when drafted out of a small school and has an all time great in James Lofton to teach him. Keenan McCardell could leave via free agency, opening the door for Jackson’s role to increase next year, but Gates is the clear #1 target long term on this team, so Jackson’s upside is limited.
32. Andrew Walter, QB, Oakland – Walter’s season basically never got off the ground because of a groin injury, which is too bad, because Kerry Collins stunk it up enough as the season went on to get benched. It would have been great to see Walter in action. Its hard to know who will be starting for Oakland at QB next year, but I doubt the Raiders would hand the keys over to Walter with how little they’ve seen on him unless he really develops in offseason activities and camp. He’s still a speculative prospect, but an interesting one because he would have Moss and Porter to throw to.
33. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB Rodgers got surprisingly little action considering how likely it was that this was Brett Favre’s last year and Rodgers was in line to inherit the position. He looked somewhat timid in his only action. Buzz/speculation has been that Rodgers development is not going well, and there was even a rumor that the Packers would send him to NFL Europe, somewhat drastic for a first round pick. Favre is all but gone in Green Bay, but the Packers could easily seek another QB via trade or free agency. My ranking is probably lower than a lot because I was never sold on him and tend to believe anything negative I hear about him more than anything positive.
34. Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Jacobs got a ton of preseason hype because of the size/speed combo he showed in preseason, but like Shelton, he needs to lower his pad level to be a successful runner in this league. Jacobs was used exclusively in short yardage, a la Zach Crockett. It is yet to be seen whether Jacobs can become a complete enough RB to be a fantasy factor.
35. Kirk Morrison, LB, Oakland – Morrison put up big time tackle numbers this year, but failed to register one interception, sack, or forced fumble. He’s definitely a viable LB3 at this point, and a bargain where he went in most rookie drafts, but he’s behind LBs with much lesser tackle numbers because of his lack of big plays.
36. Barrett Ruud, LB, TB – Sheldon Quarles did not play like his age, delaying the inevitable transition to Ruud at MLB. Ruud made an impact on special teams, and is absolutely the heir to the MLB spot in Tampa. He's a great offseason trade target in dynasty IDP leagues.
37. Jerome Mathis, WR, Houston – Mathis was extremely impressive as a return man, and his pure speed is undeniable. There is no standout WR2 in Houston, and Mathis should get a chance to seize the job if his WR skills develop. The Texans have to want to give Mathis the chance to do more damage on offense and I expect him to get every shot to start there by 07.
38. Demarcus Ware, LB, Dallas – Unlike his peer Merriman, Ware started from day one, so the fact he has similar stats is not as impressive. It also seemed like some offensive tackles had an easy time stopping Ware because of his lack of moves. Still, he made some OTs look like turnstiles and like Merriman is a threat to go off in any game with his pass rush threat. Ware should be bumped up in sack premium leagues.
39. Alvin Pearman, RB, JAX – Pearman actually contributed a ton to the Jags this year as a 3rd down back and kick/punt returner. The problem for him is that Greg Jones emerged as a viable candidate to be the chain moving back, meaning he will be taking on a Kevin Faulk type role – fantasy death. Pearman could still get a shot down the line, but he’s a marginal fantasy player for now.
40. Vernand Morency, RB, Houston – Morency could not get past Jonathan Wells on the depth chart and Houston liked Domanick Davis so much that they signed him to long term deal. Reggie Bush could even be on his way to the Texans. Morency flashed a little when given the chance late in the year, including good speed on a long TD run, but he is old for a prospect (25) and may have little to no future with the Texans – kind of tough when you might not get a chance to see the field until you’re 27 or 28. Morency’s value could go up if Bush goes elsewhere and Wells leaves in free agency – making Morency the primary backup to the not-so-durable Davis.
41. Ciatrick Fason, RB, Minnesota – Fason just did not impress me in his goal line duty stint, and it was troubling that he did not get a shot to be a bigger part of the rushing offense with all the troubles Minnesota had at RB this year. I think they are destined to bring in a RB through the draft this year. Fason was considered more of a project at RB, so he could have latent upside.
42. Terrence Murphy, WR, GB – Murphy should fully recover from the brutal hit put on him by fellow rookie Thomas Davis and assume the #3 WR role in Green Bay. He was a coach’s favorite before the injury and should get every shot to start once Driver or Walker leave the Packers.
43. Roscoe Parrish, WR, Buffalo – Parrish was making an impact in training camp before breaking his wrist, and then struggled with the inconsistent Buffalo passing offense once he returned. Parrish is in the smaller WR mold that gets by on quicks and might be best suited as a slot receiver. Eric Moulds could depart this offseason, possibly giving Parrish the opportunity to start or at least have his targets increased.
44. Adrian McPherson, QB, NO – McPherson looked as raw as advertised in the preseason, and never got a chance to play despite Aaron Brooks demotion. McPherson’s pure talent is enough to keep him on dynasty rosters, but he’s still a long way from contributing and could still amount to nothing. New Orleans is very likely to bring in a QB of the future in the draft this year, and McPherson will probably have to get his shot with another team – if he develops.
45. Courtney Roby, WR, TEN – Roby showed more than Murphy or Parrish, and even got the opportunity to start a few times, but still looked more like a rookie than fellow Titan WR Brandon Jones, and will likely be below Jones in the pecking order once he returns from ACL surgery. #3 WR in a passing offense that highlights the TE is not a good place to be for fantasy.
46. Thomas Davis, S/LB, CAR- Davis had a rocky season, bouncing back and forth between safety and linebacker in the team’s plans, and never really making an impact on defense. I did see Davis flash his closing speed and hitting ability on special teams and occasionally on defense and think he can still be a big time impact player on defense. If Will Witherspoon leaves in free agency, Davis could switch to WLB and be a fantasy monster playing a Derrick Brooks role in the Carolina D.
47. Kerry Rhodes, S, NYJ – Rhodes continued the trend of second day safeties making immediate impacts, much like his fellow starter in New York, Erik Coleman. Rhodes was terrific in run support. He won a wide open competition for a job in camp and never gave it back. He doesn’t seem have elite playmaking instincts, but he will be solid S1/2 or DB2 for a long time.
48. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, STL – Fitzpatrick had one of most memorable QB debuts in a long time, leading the Rams back from a seemingly insurmountable deficit to win in overtime. Fitzpatrick showed good scrambling ability and was able to do damage throwing on the run before the league caught up with him. He did prove in his stint as starter than he belongs in the league, and he is not overwhelmed by the speed of the game. He may still be a longshot to succeed as a starter, but that’s a step up from the almost no shot grade his draft position carried.
49. Dan Orlovsky, QB, DET – Orlovsky patiently developed as a WCO QB while Jeff Garcia and Joey Harrington both fell apart, and may be in the long term mix at QB in Detroit. The team trusted him enough to be the backup when Garcia was hurt. Keep an eye on his development this offseason and what moves the Lions make at QB.
50. Channing Crowder, LB, MIA – Crowder became a starter very early and was a solid tackler at WLB and should stay there. He struggled a lot more when he was at MLB, a sign that maybe he won’t return to the middle, where there would be slightly more tackle opportunities. Crowder was a big hitter, but not so much a playmaker at LB, although he should round into being a top 50 LB next year for IDP leagues.
couple more things about this list:
1) Ranking players across positions is tough, and there are some thick tiers on this list. in some cases, players 10 positions apart are still very close in relative value.
2) The needs of your team often dictate the value of players across position. By no means is this list absolute, and the rankings should change depending on the make up of your roster.
3) While I tried to keep tabs on these guys all year, Im sure i missed some developments. Please add anything you know that helps complete the picture when rating these guys including personal opinions or things that caught your eye watching them this year.
1. Cadillac Williams, RB, TB – Caddy came out of the gate roaring, only to be sidelined by a foot sprain mid-season. He finished games like a true feature back should and answered any questions about being able to handle a feature back load for an entire game consistently. He had a few off games coming off the injury because he lost his edge from top notch conditioning while hurt, but once he was able to get back to full speed, he looked exactly like the RB that had one of the best 3 game starts to a career of any RB in recent memory. He’s knocking on the door of the top 10 RBs. QB and OLine play will only improve in Tampa next year.
2. Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA – Ronnie showed that he was more than just a size/speed freak with no moves at RB, the knock some had on him before they saw him play for the Dolphins. Brown wore down a bit at the end of the year, but certainly looked like feature back material, breaking big runs. Many have the impression that Brown would flourish as a feature back, and he seems destined to get a shot soon. His value would explode with a trade of Ricky Williams. Not the immediate impact of Caddy, but he’s got a shot to be even with him in the future.
3. Cedric Benson, RB, CHI - Despite a rookie season that went about as badly as possible, Benson retained most of his dynasty value because he's a big young RB whose best years are ahead of him. I did like what I saw in his limited action when Jones was out – Benson looked like a rugged north-south runner, and that should produce great results behind a terrific OLine when Benson gets his shot – and the Bears have too much invested Benson to not see what he can do as a feature back. It may not happen until Thomas Jones is gone, but Benson will get his shot.
4. Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE – Edwards was injured during his breakout game. He seemed to really have Frye's trust, from the moment Frye hit him for a game winning TD on 4th down in the preseason. He would have been possibly 3rd pre-ACL tear. The injury will likely keep him out until October 2006 because he just had the surgery. I feel he is sure to settle in as a top 25 WR by 07 with top 10-15 upside.
5. Matt Jones, WR, JAX - Jones looked very raw and clearly has a lot of work to do learning the craft of the WR. Still, he flashed his ability to make impossible catches for 99% of the other WRs in the league, including uncanny hands for a guy who hadn’t played WR before, which happened to be attached to one of the best size/speed combo packages in the league. Sky's the limit.
6. Mark Clayton, WR, BAL - I almost put Clayton 4th, but I have been biased in his favor for a long time as a big XII watcher. Clayton really came on in December and showed the quicks and fundamentals that made me sure he would be an NFL success a while back. Baltimore's QB situation is muddled, but talent is the cream that rises to the top, and Clayton's got it.
7. Frank Gore, RB, SF - Congrats if you took the risk on Gore. Sure, durability issues loom, but its clear that this guy is going to die out on the football field, truly giving everything he has. Mike Nolan loves him and he could be the feature back in 06. Offseason surgery in both shoulders coming. Career may be short, but it will be bright.
8. Reggie Brown, WR, PHI - How quiet was this guy's rise in the 2nd half of the year? He went from a guy who barely saw the field before TO’s departure to the #1 WR in the offense in a matter of weeks. Brown should be the #2 WR at worst next year and is playing in a good passing offense. He showed the ability to get behind the defense and make the big play in addition to living up to his college reputation as a reliable WR.
9. Odell Thurman, LB, CIN - Thurman is one of two IDPs to become instant elites in his rookie year, the kind of guy that goes top 100 in initial drafts. He showed a knack for making big plays in coverage while being a tackling machine and is only going to get better. Marvin Lewis will make this kid a star.
10. Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA - The other IDP to join the elite in his rookie campaign, Tatupu vindicated a pick in the second by Seattle that many called a reach. The undersized MLB instantly became the leader of a formerly weak Seattle defense. Like Thurman, he's got a knack for the big play, in coverage, hitting, and rushing the QB. A godsend for Seattle.
11. Heath Miller, TE, PIT - Miller shone in his rookie year when asked to make plays. He scored a handful of Bubba Franks style 1 yd play action TDs, and became one of big ben's favorite targets over the middle. He was tough to bring down after the catch and his numbers should only improve next year. One caveat - Miller's blocking has been praised heavily and he might eventually suffer the fate of the last Steeler 1st round TE, Mark Bruener, who became more of a 3rd tackle type over time in the Steeler run first offense.
12. Mark Bradley, WR, CHI - Would have been top 10 right before his ACL tear. Like Edwards, got hurt right as he was breaking out. Bradley really seemed on the same page as Orton, but Grossman has re-emerged, and I don’t know if Grossman will lock on to Bradley like Orton did. Bradley looked so fluid and was able to consistently get open downfield. ACL surgery could take some of his top end speed away, which would hurt his value significantly. I still see him as a starter when healthy, and the heir to Muhammad in the #1 role.
13. Troy Williamson, WR, MIN - A somewhat disappointing rookie year for Troy, who found himself inactive for a few games. He did show the ability to make a lot happen after the catch, but appeared to have a long way to go as an everydown WR. He’s still a boom/bust guy in my eyes.
14. Mike Williams, WR, DET - Williams seemed to show the effects of a football layoff, and got caught in the vortex that is the Detroit offense. Charles Rogers should be gone and BMW should be able to beat out Scottie Vines in camp . The opportunity is there, but the QB situation is desperate in Detroit, and Mike did look more like an undersized TE than a WR at times.
15. J.J. Arrington, RB, ARI - Some might have a problem with this high of a ranking for a guy who clearly was a bust this year, but I think he's likely to be handed the job next year because Marcel Shipp was even worse, and Denny Green has already said he wanted to run more. The O Line has to get better next year. Arrington still has a chance at becoming a useful fantasy RB and opportunity at RB is a premium. Watch out for the possibility of Arizona drafting at RB.
16. Marion Barber, RB, DAL - Barber really made a splash when the door opened via a Julius Jones ankle injury and Tyson Thompson having too many mental errors for Tuna's liking. He showed great short yardage and goal line ability and looked like the kind of RB that can step in and produce like a #1 if asked to. I could justify putting him as many as 9 spots higher on this list based his potential at the all important RB position, but his opportunity is minimal for now with Julius Jones's resurgence late in the year.
17. Samkon Gado, RB, GB - You can't deny that Gado looked legit in his starts for Green Bay. He's gotta be in consideration for the feature back job next year. Gado came out of nowhere (well, ok the practice squad via KCs practice squad) and ran tough and patiently, not looking at all like a guy that couldnt even start at Liberty.
18. Cedric Houston, RB, NYJ – Houston’s fall to the 6th round baffled a lot of us that had him in the 2nd tier of RBs based on his size/speed package, but it ended up that he had a thyroid condition that kept teams from getting a good look at him. Houston has the physical package to be a legit NFL RB, and once the condition was diagnosed, the inconsistency that plagued him at Tennessee was explained. Houston was able to get an opportunity to start when Curtis Martin went down, and while he wasn’t dominant, he ran hard and often got yards after the first contact. He also showed some receiving skills. The Jets may bring in a top notch RB through the draft, but Houston has shown me enough to think he’ll get a look as a starter at some point in his career. A popular trade in mocks now has the Jets moving up to take Bush, so that could submarine Houston’s value.
19. Alex Smith, TE, TB – Smith had 2 TDs in his first NFL game and got more involved in the offense as the year went on. He had receptions of over 15 yards in 7 games, displaying the rare ability among TEs to do damage downfield. Smith’s role in the offense should only grow next year as he matures.
20. Ryan Moats, RB, PHI - Moats showed that he is a home run threat on any touch in his action after Brian Westbrook went down, but he also looked small and had trouble consistently getting solid gains on his carries. Westbrook is locked down long term, so Moats is relegated to backup duty for the foreseeable future. Still, if he toughens up a little, he has a chance to be a primary ballcarrier down the line.
21. Brandon Jones, WR, TEN - Jones is the 3rd WR on this list to tear his ACL on the verge of a breakout. He was the most impressive of the Tennessee rookie trio and passed Tyrone Calico on the depth chart very quickly. I don't like that Tennessee still has Drew Bennett and is running a passing offense featuring the TE. Before the ACL, Jones was probably in the 12-15 range.
22. Roddy White, WR, ATL - Roddy played better than some of the WR ahead of him on this list. He showed his big play ability and seemed ahead of schedule for a mid-major guy. Still, being in the Atlanta passing offense is a big strike against any WR, with a small pie of passing stats to split up, and Alge Crumpler occupying the #1 target role.
23. Charlie Frye, QB, CLE - Crennel won't give Frye the job yet, but you know that Frye will be the man based on his very solid play for a rookie this season. He led the team when he played and did not seem overwhelmed like a typical rookie. Frye will never be an elite fantasy QB, or maybe even a top 10 QB, but he's going to be a startable QB in 14-16 team leagues and that's great return for the picks he lasted to in most rookie drafts.
24. Chris Henry, WR, CIN Henry was probably close to cracking the top 15 on this list before his run-in with the law. This is exactly why the first round talent Henry fell to the late 3rd, and its discouraging that he would even take that kind of risk after he lost so much money on draft day because of his past misgivings. On the field, he showed the kind of talent that eventually gets a starting job, and maybe even a #1 role in a passing offense. The problem is that he could be destined for the Koren Robinson career path. Boom/bust prospect who is blocked by two excellent WR right now, both signed long term.
25. Eric Shelton, RB, CAR - Shelton didn't see the field and was put on IR despite not having a season ending injury. He needs to get his pad level lower and has been working on his own most of the year. Still, he will get to compete with Deshaun Foster or whomever else is in the Carolina backfield for a job next year with Stephen Davis likely out of the picture and has upside with nearly anyone on this list because of that opportunity.
26. Alex Smith, QB, SF – Smith was in contention with Terry Bradshaw for the ugliest rookie QB season ever until the last few weeks. He got hurt, had trouble holding on to the ball, and didn’t throw a TD until the final game of the season. He never really flashed anything that justified the first overall pick, or even a first round pick. Still, Smith was surrounded by weak talent at the skill positions and his line was decimated and sure to be better next year. Smith also showed incremental improvement over the course of the year. Too early to call him a bust, but his upside seems limited.
27. Derrick Johnson, LB, KC – Johnson was very active in his rookie year, with 80 solo tackles, but did not produce big plays at the rate he did back at Texas, with only 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. He made rookie mistakes and showed a need to improve his technique. Johnson did not have the gamechanging presence of Merriman, Tatupu or Thurman. Still, he figures to be a top tackler for years to come, and if the big plays increase, he could join the elite.
28. Shawne Merriman, LB, SD – From a pure gameplay standpoint, Merriman is top 5 on this list. He showed rare edge rushing ability and was a big reason why San Diego was able to end Indianapolis’s perfect season. He is going to be a terror for OTs and OCs in the NFL. From a fantasy standpoint, His upside is limited by playing the 3-4 OLB position. Merriman will have some huge multiple sack games, but the bread and butter of LBs – tackles – will be more sporadic. If your leagues weights sacks (3X or more points for a sack than a tackle), then Merriman shoots up the list. Otherwise, he’s a solid LB2/3 who will single-handedly help you win some weeks, and disappear in others.
29. Kyle Orton, QB, CHI Orton’s ranking has more to do with the limited upside of QB in Chicago’s offense than his play – although he was mediocre at best this year. However, when you consider that he was a 4th round rookie that was expected to be third string, mediocre play, valuable experience, and a winning record looks like a promising start to Orton’s career. Grossman may have recaptured his job, but Orton showed enough in his stint at starter to get another shot at starting eventually, even if it’s not in Chicago.
30. Jason Campbell, QB, WAS – Mark Brunell’s resurgence meant Campbell was completely under the radar this year. There has been a lack of strongly positive or negative news about his development, but Brunell looked more his age as the season went on, and as long as Campbell is ready to assume backup duty, Patrick Ramsey should be gone via trade to a QB poor team. Campbell has the raw materials to be a solid fantasy QB, but the Washington offense will be conservative as long as Joe Gibbs is there.
31. Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego – Jackson battled injuries and got minimal playing time, but he was considered a project when drafted out of a small school and has an all time great in James Lofton to teach him. Keenan McCardell could leave via free agency, opening the door for Jackson’s role to increase next year, but Gates is the clear #1 target long term on this team, so Jackson’s upside is limited.
32. Andrew Walter, QB, Oakland – Walter’s season basically never got off the ground because of a groin injury, which is too bad, because Kerry Collins stunk it up enough as the season went on to get benched. It would have been great to see Walter in action. Its hard to know who will be starting for Oakland at QB next year, but I doubt the Raiders would hand the keys over to Walter with how little they’ve seen on him unless he really develops in offseason activities and camp. He’s still a speculative prospect, but an interesting one because he would have Moss and Porter to throw to.
33. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB Rodgers got surprisingly little action considering how likely it was that this was Brett Favre’s last year and Rodgers was in line to inherit the position. He looked somewhat timid in his only action. Buzz/speculation has been that Rodgers development is not going well, and there was even a rumor that the Packers would send him to NFL Europe, somewhat drastic for a first round pick. Favre is all but gone in Green Bay, but the Packers could easily seek another QB via trade or free agency. My ranking is probably lower than a lot because I was never sold on him and tend to believe anything negative I hear about him more than anything positive.
34. Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Jacobs got a ton of preseason hype because of the size/speed combo he showed in preseason, but like Shelton, he needs to lower his pad level to be a successful runner in this league. Jacobs was used exclusively in short yardage, a la Zach Crockett. It is yet to be seen whether Jacobs can become a complete enough RB to be a fantasy factor.
35. Kirk Morrison, LB, Oakland – Morrison put up big time tackle numbers this year, but failed to register one interception, sack, or forced fumble. He’s definitely a viable LB3 at this point, and a bargain where he went in most rookie drafts, but he’s behind LBs with much lesser tackle numbers because of his lack of big plays.
36. Barrett Ruud, LB, TB – Sheldon Quarles did not play like his age, delaying the inevitable transition to Ruud at MLB. Ruud made an impact on special teams, and is absolutely the heir to the MLB spot in Tampa. He's a great offseason trade target in dynasty IDP leagues.
37. Jerome Mathis, WR, Houston – Mathis was extremely impressive as a return man, and his pure speed is undeniable. There is no standout WR2 in Houston, and Mathis should get a chance to seize the job if his WR skills develop. The Texans have to want to give Mathis the chance to do more damage on offense and I expect him to get every shot to start there by 07.
38. Demarcus Ware, LB, Dallas – Unlike his peer Merriman, Ware started from day one, so the fact he has similar stats is not as impressive. It also seemed like some offensive tackles had an easy time stopping Ware because of his lack of moves. Still, he made some OTs look like turnstiles and like Merriman is a threat to go off in any game with his pass rush threat. Ware should be bumped up in sack premium leagues.
39. Alvin Pearman, RB, JAX – Pearman actually contributed a ton to the Jags this year as a 3rd down back and kick/punt returner. The problem for him is that Greg Jones emerged as a viable candidate to be the chain moving back, meaning he will be taking on a Kevin Faulk type role – fantasy death. Pearman could still get a shot down the line, but he’s a marginal fantasy player for now.
40. Vernand Morency, RB, Houston – Morency could not get past Jonathan Wells on the depth chart and Houston liked Domanick Davis so much that they signed him to long term deal. Reggie Bush could even be on his way to the Texans. Morency flashed a little when given the chance late in the year, including good speed on a long TD run, but he is old for a prospect (25) and may have little to no future with the Texans – kind of tough when you might not get a chance to see the field until you’re 27 or 28. Morency’s value could go up if Bush goes elsewhere and Wells leaves in free agency – making Morency the primary backup to the not-so-durable Davis.
41. Ciatrick Fason, RB, Minnesota – Fason just did not impress me in his goal line duty stint, and it was troubling that he did not get a shot to be a bigger part of the rushing offense with all the troubles Minnesota had at RB this year. I think they are destined to bring in a RB through the draft this year. Fason was considered more of a project at RB, so he could have latent upside.
42. Terrence Murphy, WR, GB – Murphy should fully recover from the brutal hit put on him by fellow rookie Thomas Davis and assume the #3 WR role in Green Bay. He was a coach’s favorite before the injury and should get every shot to start once Driver or Walker leave the Packers.
43. Roscoe Parrish, WR, Buffalo – Parrish was making an impact in training camp before breaking his wrist, and then struggled with the inconsistent Buffalo passing offense once he returned. Parrish is in the smaller WR mold that gets by on quicks and might be best suited as a slot receiver. Eric Moulds could depart this offseason, possibly giving Parrish the opportunity to start or at least have his targets increased.
44. Adrian McPherson, QB, NO – McPherson looked as raw as advertised in the preseason, and never got a chance to play despite Aaron Brooks demotion. McPherson’s pure talent is enough to keep him on dynasty rosters, but he’s still a long way from contributing and could still amount to nothing. New Orleans is very likely to bring in a QB of the future in the draft this year, and McPherson will probably have to get his shot with another team – if he develops.
45. Courtney Roby, WR, TEN – Roby showed more than Murphy or Parrish, and even got the opportunity to start a few times, but still looked more like a rookie than fellow Titan WR Brandon Jones, and will likely be below Jones in the pecking order once he returns from ACL surgery. #3 WR in a passing offense that highlights the TE is not a good place to be for fantasy.
46. Thomas Davis, S/LB, CAR- Davis had a rocky season, bouncing back and forth between safety and linebacker in the team’s plans, and never really making an impact on defense. I did see Davis flash his closing speed and hitting ability on special teams and occasionally on defense and think he can still be a big time impact player on defense. If Will Witherspoon leaves in free agency, Davis could switch to WLB and be a fantasy monster playing a Derrick Brooks role in the Carolina D.
47. Kerry Rhodes, S, NYJ – Rhodes continued the trend of second day safeties making immediate impacts, much like his fellow starter in New York, Erik Coleman. Rhodes was terrific in run support. He won a wide open competition for a job in camp and never gave it back. He doesn’t seem have elite playmaking instincts, but he will be solid S1/2 or DB2 for a long time.
48. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, STL – Fitzpatrick had one of most memorable QB debuts in a long time, leading the Rams back from a seemingly insurmountable deficit to win in overtime. Fitzpatrick showed good scrambling ability and was able to do damage throwing on the run before the league caught up with him. He did prove in his stint as starter than he belongs in the league, and he is not overwhelmed by the speed of the game. He may still be a longshot to succeed as a starter, but that’s a step up from the almost no shot grade his draft position carried.
49. Dan Orlovsky, QB, DET – Orlovsky patiently developed as a WCO QB while Jeff Garcia and Joey Harrington both fell apart, and may be in the long term mix at QB in Detroit. The team trusted him enough to be the backup when Garcia was hurt. Keep an eye on his development this offseason and what moves the Lions make at QB.
50. Channing Crowder, LB, MIA – Crowder became a starter very early and was a solid tackler at WLB and should stay there. He struggled a lot more when he was at MLB, a sign that maybe he won’t return to the middle, where there would be slightly more tackle opportunities. Crowder was a big hitter, but not so much a playmaker at LB, although he should round into being a top 50 LB next year for IDP leagues.
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awesome thread as always. this is the sorta stuff that i'll be looking forward to from now until week 1 of next year!
